Pub Date : 2016-01-01DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2016.084515
M. W. Bos, E. Hofman, S. Kuhlmann
To address comprehensive system innovations that may occur in a future transition, a suitable ex ante assessment method is required. The technological innovation system approach is useful for the retrospective study of the conditions for success or failure of innovation trajectories, and the multilevel framework helps to understand transition dynamics. Drawing on these concepts and on the hypercube of innovation, we suggest, as an ex ante approach, the assessment method for system innovation and transition (AMSIT). This method not only helps to anticipate the requirements for a system innovation and transition, but it also provides an indication if these requirements are being met. The method helps to assess innovation system initiatives that not only face technological challenges in the niche in which it operates, but also challenging factors related to the sociotechnical regime and the political and societal landscape in which the niche is located. This paper describes the construction of the anticipatory AMSIT and illustrates its application in a case linked to the Dutch railway network involving a transition to a system operating at an increased voltage.
{"title":"An assessment method for system innovation and transition (AMSIT)","authors":"M. W. Bos, E. Hofman, S. Kuhlmann","doi":"10.1504/IJFIP.2016.084515","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2016.084515","url":null,"abstract":"To address comprehensive system innovations that may occur in a future transition, a suitable ex ante assessment method is required. The technological innovation system approach is useful for the retrospective study of the conditions for success or failure of innovation trajectories, and the multilevel framework helps to understand transition dynamics. Drawing on these concepts and on the hypercube of innovation, we suggest, as an ex ante approach, the assessment method for system innovation and transition (AMSIT). This method not only helps to anticipate the requirements for a system innovation and transition, but it also provides an indication if these requirements are being met. The method helps to assess innovation system initiatives that not only face technological challenges in the niche in which it operates, but also challenging factors related to the sociotechnical regime and the political and societal landscape in which the niche is located. This paper describes the construction of the anticipatory AMSIT and illustrates its application in a case linked to the Dutch railway network involving a transition to a system operating at an increased voltage.","PeriodicalId":35015,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy","volume":"11 1","pages":"185-214"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1504/IJFIP.2016.084515","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66792756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-01-01DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2016.084531
Maria Elo
The study presents an international new venture based on car part data and intelligence examining its unique internationalisation process. The impact of the industry network in which the start-up is embedded is central in this international expansion, it plays a crucial role in the expansion process where a small start-up develops an international industry standard. Becoming the establisher of the dominant design is analysed from the perspective of collective internationalisation using an explorative case study approach. The findings illustrate particular characteristics of multiple entrepreneurial activities, the power constellation required for the process, the role of innovation as one key driver and the value creation logic. The study contributes to the understanding of contemporary accelerated internationalisation, its multifaceted character and industry standards.
{"title":"Can a start-up establish international industry standards? The international development of a data solution platform in car parts business","authors":"Maria Elo","doi":"10.1504/IJFIP.2016.084531","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2016.084531","url":null,"abstract":"The study presents an international new venture based on car part data and intelligence examining its unique internationalisation process. The impact of the industry network in which the start-up is embedded is central in this international expansion, it plays a crucial role in the expansion process where a small start-up develops an international industry standard. Becoming the establisher of the dominant design is analysed from the perspective of collective internationalisation using an explorative case study approach. The findings illustrate particular characteristics of multiple entrepreneurial activities, the power constellation required for the process, the role of innovation as one key driver and the value creation logic. The study contributes to the understanding of contemporary accelerated internationalisation, its multifaceted character and industry standards.","PeriodicalId":35015,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy","volume":"68 1","pages":"256-275"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1504/IJFIP.2016.084531","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66792393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-06-30DOI: 10.1504/ijfip.2015.070081
I. Yeh, Che-hui Lien, Tao-Ming Ting
This research employed regression trees to build the predictive models of the rate of return of the portfolio and conducted an empirical study in the Taiwan stock market. Our study employed the sorting normalisation approach to normalise independent and dependent variables and used balanced split regression trees to improve the defects of the traditional regression trees. The results show (a) using the sorting normalised independent and dependent variables can build a predictive model with a better capability in predicting the rate of return of the portfolio, (b) the balanced split regression trees perform well except in the training period from 1999 to 2000. One possible reason is that the dot-com bubble achieved its peak in 2000 which changes investors' behaviour, (c) during the training period, the predictive ability of the model using data from the bull market outperforms the model using data from the bear market.
{"title":"Building multi-factor stock selection models using balanced split regression trees with sorting normalisation and hybrid variables","authors":"I. Yeh, Che-hui Lien, Tao-Ming Ting","doi":"10.1504/ijfip.2015.070081","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijfip.2015.070081","url":null,"abstract":"This research employed regression trees to build the predictive models of the rate of return of the portfolio and conducted an empirical study in the Taiwan stock market. Our study employed the sorting normalisation approach to normalise independent and dependent variables and used balanced split regression trees to improve the defects of the traditional regression trees. The results show (a) using the sorting normalised independent and dependent variables can build a predictive model with a better capability in predicting the rate of return of the portfolio, (b) the balanced split regression trees perform well except in the training period from 1999 to 2000. One possible reason is that the dot-com bubble achieved its peak in 2000 which changes investors' behaviour, (c) during the training period, the predictive ability of the model using data from the bull market outperforms the model using data from the bear market.","PeriodicalId":35015,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1504/ijfip.2015.070081","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66791309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-06-30DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2015.070083
Satu Rinkinen, M. Mäkimattila
In order to successfully compete in the market, firms have to keep track of the changes in the operational environment and use this information in their innovation processes. Future-oriented information is gathered by various agents, but firms still struggle to find relevant information and transform it into profitable businesses and innovations. Intermediary organisations play an important role in the interfacing of knowledge producers and knowledge exploiters. This paper studies the role of intermediary organisations in promoting the use of foresight information in small and medium-sized enterprises. A qualitative case study approach is used. The study emphasises the importance of interpreting foresight information through communicative processes and combines these ideas at the system level, providing new insights not only on the theoretical level but also for developing the innovation policy practice.
{"title":"The use of foresight information in small and medium-sized enterprises - the role of intermediary organisations","authors":"Satu Rinkinen, M. Mäkimattila","doi":"10.1504/IJFIP.2015.070083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2015.070083","url":null,"abstract":"In order to successfully compete in the market, firms have to keep track of the changes in the operational environment and use this information in their innovation processes. Future-oriented information is gathered by various agents, but firms still struggle to find relevant information and transform it into profitable businesses and innovations. Intermediary organisations play an important role in the interfacing of knowledge producers and knowledge exploiters. This paper studies the role of intermediary organisations in promoting the use of foresight information in small and medium-sized enterprises. A qualitative case study approach is used. The study emphasises the importance of interpreting foresight information through communicative processes and combines these ideas at the system level, providing new insights not only on the theoretical level but also for developing the innovation policy practice.","PeriodicalId":35015,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1504/IJFIP.2015.070083","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66791373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-06-30DOI: 10.1504/ijfip.2015.070054
Hanadi Mubarak Al-Mubaraki, M. Busler
Today business incubation is considered a powerful tool in developed and developing countries alike. Business incubators (BI) are among an assortment of initiatives to stimulate and support economic growth by promoting the creation and development of innovative companies. The aim of this paper is to identify the strengths and weaknesses of business incubation in developing countries. This paper uses a qualitative methodology based on three case studies of incubator programs in the countries of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. In addition to the case studies, a wide literature review and the authors' professional experience on the topic provide the foundation for this paper. The findings of this research present guidelines for practitioners including policy makers, governments, institutions, and funded organisations. The findings also contribute useful information to the current literature for academicians interested in the incubator model.
{"title":"The importance of business incubation in developing countries: case study approach","authors":"Hanadi Mubarak Al-Mubaraki, M. Busler","doi":"10.1504/ijfip.2015.070054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijfip.2015.070054","url":null,"abstract":"Today business incubation is considered a powerful tool in developed and developing countries alike. Business incubators (BI) are among an assortment of initiatives to stimulate and support economic growth by promoting the creation and development of innovative companies. The aim of this paper is to identify the strengths and weaknesses of business incubation in developing countries. This paper uses a qualitative methodology based on three case studies of incubator programs in the countries of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. In addition to the case studies, a wide literature review and the authors' professional experience on the topic provide the foundation for this paper. The findings of this research present guidelines for practitioners including policy makers, governments, institutions, and funded organisations. The findings also contribute useful information to the current literature for academicians interested in the incubator model.","PeriodicalId":35015,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1504/ijfip.2015.070054","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66791636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-06-30DOI: 10.1504/ijfip.2015.070053
M. Rout, B. Majhi
The literature survey on sales forecasting reveals that few works have been reported on long-range forecasting of sale volumes. On the other hand, there is a need of such long-range forecasting of sales data to devise suitable organisational strategy. The existing soft computing-based forecasting models provide poor prediction performance. Keeping this in view a new soft computing model is developed and utilised for prediction of seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) sales volumes up to 24 months. The simulation results of real-life data show an excellent prediction performance compared to that of four other contemporary soft computing models.
{"title":"Long-range prediction of retail sales using recurrent radial basis function neural network","authors":"M. Rout, B. Majhi","doi":"10.1504/ijfip.2015.070053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijfip.2015.070053","url":null,"abstract":"The literature survey on sales forecasting reveals that few works have been reported on long-range forecasting of sale volumes. On the other hand, there is a need of such long-range forecasting of sales data to devise suitable organisational strategy. The existing soft computing-based forecasting models provide poor prediction performance. Keeping this in view a new soft computing model is developed and utilised for prediction of seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) sales volumes up to 24 months. The simulation results of real-life data show an excellent prediction performance compared to that of four other contemporary soft computing models.","PeriodicalId":35015,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1504/ijfip.2015.070053","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66791584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-06-01DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2015.074397
D. Sarpong, J. Amankwah‐Amoah
Scenario planning in recent times has become one of the strategic tools used by organizations to probe their uncertain and fleeting business environment. In this paper, we provide a synthesis of the configuration of knowledge underpinning scenario generation, their construction, and methodologies underpinning them in practice. We also offer brief insight into the shifting conceptual landscape in theorizing scenario planning. We contend that such knowledge has the potential to broaden our understanding of the value of scenario planning to organizational competitiveness as we struggle to bridge the growing gulf between the theory and practice of scenario planning. As an introduction to the special issue on scenario planning, we also provide a brief outline of the papers contained in the issue.
{"title":"Scenario planning: ‘Ways of knowing’, methodologies and shifting conceptual landscape","authors":"D. Sarpong, J. Amankwah‐Amoah","doi":"10.1504/IJFIP.2015.074397","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2015.074397","url":null,"abstract":"Scenario planning in recent times has become one of the strategic tools used by organizations to probe their uncertain and fleeting business environment. In this paper, we provide a synthesis of the configuration of knowledge underpinning scenario generation, their construction, and methodologies underpinning them in practice. We also offer brief insight into the shifting conceptual landscape in theorizing scenario planning. We contend that such knowledge has the potential to broaden our understanding of the value of scenario planning to organizational competitiveness as we struggle to bridge the growing gulf between the theory and practice of scenario planning. As an introduction to the special issue on scenario planning, we also provide a brief outline of the papers contained in the issue.","PeriodicalId":35015,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1504/IJFIP.2015.074397","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66791834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2013-12-01DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2013.058611
Arnim Wiek, L. Keeler, V. Schweizer, D. Lang
Quality criteria for generating future-oriented knowledge and future scenarios are different from those developed for knowledge about past and current events. Such quality criteria can be defined relative to the intended function of the knowledge. Plausibility has emerged as a central quality criterion of scenarios that allows exploring the future with credibility and saliency. But what exactly is plausibility vis-a-vis probability, consistency, and desirability? And how can plausibility be evaluated and constructed in scenarios? Sufficient plausibility, in this article, refers to scenarios that hold enough evidence to be considered ‘occurrable’. This might have been the underlying idea of scenarios all along without being explicitly elaborated in a pragmatic concept or methodology. Here, we operationalise plausibility in scenarios through a set of plausibility indications and illustrate the proposal with scenarios constructed for Phoenix, Arizona. The article operationalises the concept of plausibility in scenarios to support scholars and practitioners alike.
{"title":"Plausibility indications in future scenarios","authors":"Arnim Wiek, L. Keeler, V. Schweizer, D. Lang","doi":"10.1504/IJFIP.2013.058611","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2013.058611","url":null,"abstract":"Quality criteria for generating future-oriented knowledge and future scenarios are different from those developed for knowledge about past and current events. Such quality criteria can be defined relative to the intended function of the knowledge. Plausibility has emerged as a central quality criterion of scenarios that allows exploring the future with credibility and saliency. But what exactly is plausibility vis-a-vis probability, consistency, and desirability? And how can plausibility be evaluated and constructed in scenarios? Sufficient plausibility, in this article, refers to scenarios that hold enough evidence to be considered ‘occurrable’. This might have been the underlying idea of scenarios all along without being explicitly elaborated in a pragmatic concept or methodology. Here, we operationalise plausibility in scenarios through a set of plausibility indications and illustrate the proposal with scenarios constructed for Phoenix, Arizona. The article operationalises the concept of plausibility in scenarios to support scholars and practitioners alike.","PeriodicalId":35015,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy","volume":"9 1","pages":"133-147"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1504/IJFIP.2013.058611","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66791286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2013-01-30DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2013.051761
H. Yim, Seokho Son, Jongmin Han
Nuclear energy policies in Korea have been developed without considering uncertainties. Those were developed from the trend extrapolation that merely projected rapidly increasing energy consumption. However, there is a concern that such a rosy plan cannot respond effectively to many uncertainties in the forces shaping the future of nuclear energy. A new vision building process for nuclear energy should be established in order to take into account these uncertainties. The vision building process with combination of backcasting with exploratory scenarios was proposed to establish a long-term vision for nuclear energy for 2050 in Korea. First, alternative scenarios were suggested in consideration of future uncertainties. A desirable future of nuclear energy was then projected upon consideration of these various scenarios and a vision was suggested. Finally, key technologies and policy directions necessary to achieve the vision were identified. This work is expected to help policy makers to prepare for the future in the face of uncertainties.
{"title":"Scenario-based vision building of nuclear energy","authors":"H. Yim, Seokho Son, Jongmin Han","doi":"10.1504/IJFIP.2013.051761","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2013.051761","url":null,"abstract":"Nuclear energy policies in Korea have been developed without considering uncertainties. Those were developed from the trend extrapolation that merely projected rapidly increasing energy consumption. However, there is a concern that such a rosy plan cannot respond effectively to many uncertainties in the forces shaping the future of nuclear energy. A new vision building process for nuclear energy should be established in order to take into account these uncertainties. The vision building process with combination of backcasting with exploratory scenarios was proposed to establish a long-term vision for nuclear energy for 2050 in Korea. First, alternative scenarios were suggested in consideration of future uncertainties. A desirable future of nuclear energy was then projected upon consideration of these various scenarios and a vision was suggested. Finally, key technologies and policy directions necessary to achieve the vision were identified. This work is expected to help policy makers to prepare for the future in the face of uncertainties.","PeriodicalId":35015,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy","volume":"9 1","pages":"56"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1504/IJFIP.2013.051761","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66791055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2013-01-30DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2013.051758
D. Kanama
Aiming to obtain an overview of science and technology foresight, this paper examines objective, methodology and subject area of technology foresight in the world. The objective of technology foresight is not only to contribute to science and technology and innovation strategy planning, but also to establish a knowledge base related to science and technology and innovation strategy as a learning tool. Furthermore, a bibliometric analysis of Delphi method, scenario-planning and technology roadmapping has found that the numbers of publications of each methodology have increased, and these subject areas are different by methodology such as health and medicine for Delphi method, environment and energy for scenario-planning, and electricity and semiconductor for technology roadmapping.
{"title":"Objective, methodology and subject area of technology foresight based on bibliometric analysis","authors":"D. Kanama","doi":"10.1504/IJFIP.2013.051758","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2013.051758","url":null,"abstract":"Aiming to obtain an overview of science and technology foresight, this paper examines objective, methodology and subject area of technology foresight in the world. The objective of technology foresight is not only to contribute to science and technology and innovation strategy planning, but also to establish a knowledge base related to science and technology and innovation strategy as a learning tool. Furthermore, a bibliometric analysis of Delphi method, scenario-planning and technology roadmapping has found that the numbers of publications of each methodology have increased, and these subject areas are different by methodology such as health and medicine for Delphi method, environment and energy for scenario-planning, and electricity and semiconductor for technology roadmapping.","PeriodicalId":35015,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy","volume":"9 1","pages":"3"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1504/IJFIP.2013.051758","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66790850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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