首页 > 最新文献

Technology of technosphere safety最新文献

英文 中文
Modern problems of legal regulation of relations in the field of training fire safety measures for employees of organizations 现代企业员工消防安全措施培训领域关系的法律规制问题
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25257/tts.2021.4.94.96-104
S. G. Androsenko
Introduction. The analysis of normative legal acts in the field of fire safety and education is carried out. Approaches to the organization of training in fire safety measures are analyzed. The discrepancy between the formally existing normative legal acts regulating the same social attitude is revealed, which leads to a conflict of legal acts that creates difficulties in implementing training for a certain category of employees of organizations. A solution to this problem is proposed by introducing amendments to certain regulatory legal acts. The purpose of the study is to solve the identified legal conflict (conflict of legal acts) by making changes to certain regulatory legal acts. Research methods. To obtain the results, we used general scientific and special methods of scientific knowledge – analysis, generalization, system-structural, technical-legal, comparative law. The results of the study. The analysis of normative legal acts in the field of fire safety and education is carried out. A legal conflict (conflict of legal acts) has been identified. A variant of solving this problem by making changes to certain regulatory legal acts is proposed. Conclusion. Using the results of the conducted research, it is possible to initiate a procedure for making changes to the existing regulatory legal acts regulating public relations in the field of fire safety and education, which will solve the problem of training employees of organizations to the fire-technical minimum. Key words: training, fire-technical minimum, additional professional education, professional training, regulatory legal act.
介绍。对消防安全教育领域的规范性法律行为进行了分析。分析了组织消防安全措施培训的途径。正式存在的规范同一社会态度的规范性法律行为之间的差异暴露出来,从而导致法律行为的冲突,给组织中某一类员工的培训实施带来困难。解决这一问题的办法是对某些监管法律行为进行修正。研究的目的是通过改变某些监管法律行为来解决已识别的法律冲突(法律行为冲突)。研究方法。为了获得结果,我们运用了科学知识的一般科学方法和特殊科学方法——分析、概括、系统结构、技术法、比较法。研究的结果。对消防安全教育领域的规范性法律行为进行了分析。法律冲突(法律行为冲突)已经确定。提出了一种通过修改某些监管法律行为来解决这一问题的方法。结论。利用所进行的研究的结果,有可能开始一项程序,修改现行的管理消防安全和教育领域公共关系的规章法律,这将解决培训各组织雇员达到最低消防技术水平的问题。关键词:培训;消防技术最低限度;附加职业教育;
{"title":"Modern problems of legal regulation of relations in the field of training fire safety measures for employees of organizations","authors":"S. G. Androsenko","doi":"10.25257/tts.2021.4.94.96-104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25257/tts.2021.4.94.96-104","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction. The analysis of normative legal acts in the field of fire safety and education is carried out. Approaches to the organization of training in fire safety measures are analyzed. The discrepancy between the formally existing normative legal acts regulating the same social attitude is revealed, which leads to a conflict of legal acts that creates difficulties in implementing training for a certain category of employees of organizations. A solution to this problem is proposed by introducing amendments to certain regulatory legal acts. The purpose of the study is to solve the identified legal conflict (conflict of legal acts) by making changes to certain regulatory legal acts. Research methods. To obtain the results, we used general scientific and special methods of scientific knowledge – analysis, generalization, system-structural, technical-legal, comparative law. The results of the study. The analysis of normative legal acts in the field of fire safety and education is carried out. A legal conflict (conflict of legal acts) has been identified. A variant of solving this problem by making changes to certain regulatory legal acts is proposed. Conclusion. Using the results of the conducted research, it is possible to initiate a procedure for making changes to the existing regulatory legal acts regulating public relations in the field of fire safety and education, which will solve the problem of training employees of organizations to the fire-technical minimum. Key words: training, fire-technical minimum, additional professional education, professional training, regulatory legal act.","PeriodicalId":356653,"journal":{"name":"Technology of technosphere safety","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128543710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Probabilistic model of branched-chain combustion of saturated hydrocarbons in a closed volume of gas compressor stations 饱和烃在密闭体积气体压缩站内支链燃烧的概率模型
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25257/tts.2021.1.91.42-52
R. Khalikov
Introduction. The article analyzes the role of thermal and chain combustion in a fire in a closed volume of gas compressor stations. The mechanism of the branched-chain combustion of saturated hydrocarbons in the gas phase has been determined. The analysis of existing models of combustion of saturated hydrocarbons is carried out. Probabilistic model of branched-chain combustion of saturated hydrocarbons in a closed volume of gas compressor stations based on the energy characteristics of the chain carriers in the branched-chain combustion process has been compiled. The purpose of the study is to establish a model of qualitative relationship between the kinetic mechanisms of the branched-chain combustion process of saturated hydrocarbons and the chain carriers involved in it (atoms and radicals) in the closed volume of gas compressor stations. Research methods. To obtain the results the general scientific and special methods of scientific knowledge - the analysis, synthesis, theory of branched-chain combustion process, thermal theory of combustion, theory of energy Boltzmann distribution, were used. The results of the study. The analysis of the main mechanisms of the kinetics of the chemical reaction of combustion in a closed volume of gas compressor stations was carried out. A qualitative model of the relationship between the kinetic mechanisms of the branched-chain combustion process of saturated hydrocarbons and the chain carriers involved in it (atoms and radicals) in the closed volume of gas compressor stations is established. Conclusion. The obtained probabilistic model allows us to calculate the probability of the occurrence of branched-chain combustion of saturated hydrocarbons within the closed volumes of gas compressor stations for different reaction chains. It allows us to choose the most effective control of chemical reactions of combustion under these conditions, that is, to define how to perform volumetric extinguishing most effectively. The found model does not contradict existing models, and the results obtained are confirmed by empirical data. Keywords: probabilistic model, branched-chain process, gas compressor stations, closed spaces, energy structure, gas-phase flame
介绍。本文分析了密闭体积气体压缩站火灾中热燃烧和链式燃烧的作用。确定了饱和烃在气相中支链燃烧的机理。对现有的饱和烃燃烧模型进行了分析。基于链载体在支链燃烧过程中的能量特性,建立了饱和烃在密闭体积气体压缩站中支链燃烧的概率模型。本研究的目的是建立饱和烃支链燃烧过程的动力学机制与所涉及的链载体(原子和自由基)在燃气压缩站密闭体积内的定性关系模型。研究方法。为了得到结果,采用了科学知识的一般方法和特殊方法——支链燃烧过程的分析、综合、燃烧热理论、能量玻尔兹曼分布理论。研究的结果。对密闭气体压缩站内燃烧化学反应动力学的主要机理进行了分析。建立了饱和烃支链燃烧过程的动力学机理与所涉及的链载体(原子和自由基)在气压站密闭体积内的关系的定性模型。结论。得到的概率模型使我们能够计算出不同反应链的饱和烃在气体压缩站封闭容积内发生支链燃烧的概率。它使我们能够选择在这些条件下最有效地控制燃烧的化学反应,即确定如何最有效地进行体积灭火。所建立的模型与已有模型不矛盾,所得结果得到了实证数据的证实。关键词:概率模型,支链过程,气体压缩站,封闭空间,能量结构,气相火焰
{"title":"Probabilistic model of branched-chain combustion of saturated hydrocarbons in a closed volume of gas compressor stations","authors":"R. Khalikov","doi":"10.25257/tts.2021.1.91.42-52","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25257/tts.2021.1.91.42-52","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction. The article analyzes the role of thermal and chain combustion in a fire in a closed volume of gas compressor stations. The mechanism of the branched-chain combustion of saturated hydrocarbons in the gas phase has been determined. The analysis of existing models of combustion of saturated hydrocarbons is carried out. Probabilistic model of branched-chain combustion of saturated hydrocarbons in a closed volume of gas compressor stations based on the energy characteristics of the chain carriers in the branched-chain combustion process has been compiled. The purpose of the study is to establish a model of qualitative relationship between the kinetic mechanisms of the branched-chain combustion process of saturated hydrocarbons and the chain carriers involved in it (atoms and radicals) in the closed volume of gas compressor stations. Research methods. To obtain the results the general scientific and special methods of scientific knowledge - the analysis, synthesis, theory of branched-chain combustion process, thermal theory of combustion, theory of energy Boltzmann distribution, were used. The results of the study. The analysis of the main mechanisms of the kinetics of the chemical reaction of combustion in a closed volume of gas compressor stations was carried out. A qualitative model of the relationship between the kinetic mechanisms of the branched-chain combustion process of saturated hydrocarbons and the chain carriers involved in it (atoms and radicals) in the closed volume of gas compressor stations is established. Conclusion. The obtained probabilistic model allows us to calculate the probability of the occurrence of branched-chain combustion of saturated hydrocarbons within the closed volumes of gas compressor stations for different reaction chains. It allows us to choose the most effective control of chemical reactions of combustion under these conditions, that is, to define how to perform volumetric extinguishing most effectively. The found model does not contradict existing models, and the results obtained are confirmed by empirical data. Keywords: probabilistic model, branched-chain process, gas compressor stations, closed spaces, energy structure, gas-phase flame","PeriodicalId":356653,"journal":{"name":"Technology of technosphere safety","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114319440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Retrospective analysis of studies on the establishment of the fire source 火源确立研究的回顾性分析
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25257/tts.2021.3.93.61-72
I. Lobaev, V. Pleshakov, V. R. Dzhugan
Introduction. The establishment of the place of occurrence of a fire is one of the main directions of fire-technical expertise. Despite the fact that since the beginning of the XXI century, the productivity of research works devoted to the topic of establishing a fire source has increased, the modern approach does not provide sufficient accuracy of solving the problem, and the fire source is often localized with an unreasonably large error associated with the accuracy of determining the coordinates of the hearth in the room. The brief overview of the most significant studies in the field of fire detection given in the article is aimed at determining the direction of the development of ideas about this subject area, which will eventually make it possible to optimize the research processes, determine the most rational areas of work, allocate resources and regulate the risks of expert errors in the future. Goals and objectives. The purpose of the analysis is to consider the comprehensive problems of research in the field of fire source. The objectives of the study are to objectively assess the methodological approach to the establishment of a fire source, to identify the shortcomings of its establishment and to form the basis for the development of new approaches to the establishment of a fire source. Methods. A retrospective analysis of studies on the problems of establishing a fire source during fire-technical expertise was carried out. During the analysis, the following tasks were performed: selection and preparation of the necessary data for conducting an analytical review; analysis of information; a reasonable idea of the direction of development of the methodological approach to establishing the fire source, as well as the preparation of conclusions based on the conducted retrospective analysis. Results and their discussion. It is determined at what time it appeared, how it manifested itself and the question of the organization and content of research in the field of fire was changing. Since the beginning of the XXI century, mathematical modeling of the dynamics of fire hazards makes it possible to expand the possibilities of predicting results with a significant variation in the initial data on the location of the fire source, which will increase the effectiveness of the study. Conclusions. The second decade of the XXI century is characterized by the intensive development in Russia of works on the creation of new effective methods for establishing a fire source based on the comparison of the results of the study of mathematical models and actual fire data. Keywords: retrospective analysis, fire source, information processing method, fire-technical expertise, fire hazards
介绍。火灾发生地点的确定是火灾技术鉴定的主要方向之一。尽管自21世纪初以来,致力于建立火源主题的研究工作的生产力有所提高,但现代方法并不能提供解决问题的足够准确性,并且火源通常定位在与确定房间壁炉坐标的准确性相关的不合理的大误差中。本文对火灾探测领域最重要的研究进行了简要概述,旨在确定这一主题领域的发展方向,最终可以优化研究过程,确定最合理的工作领域,分配资源并调节未来专家错误的风险。目标和目的。分析的目的是考虑火源领域研究的综合问题。这项研究的目的是客观地评价建立火源的方法方法,确定其建立的缺点,并为制定建立火源的新方法奠定基础。方法。对火灾技术鉴定过程中确定火源问题的研究进行了回顾性分析。在分析期间,执行了下列任务:选择和准备进行分析审查所需的数据;信息分析;对确立火源的方法学方法的发展方向有一个合理的认识,并在进行回顾性分析的基础上得出结论。结果和讨论。它是在什么时候出现的,它是如何表现出来的,火领域研究的组织和内容的问题是不断变化的。自21世纪初以来,火灾危险动力学的数学建模使得在火源位置的初始数据发生显著变化的情况下,扩大预测结果的可能性成为可能,这将提高研究的有效性。结论。21世纪第二个十年的特点是,俄罗斯在数学模型和实际火灾数据研究结果的比较基础上,集中开展了建立火源的新有效方法的工作。关键词:回顾性分析,火源,信息处理方法,消防专业知识,火灾隐患
{"title":"Retrospective analysis of studies on the establishment of the fire source","authors":"I. Lobaev, V. Pleshakov, V. R. Dzhugan","doi":"10.25257/tts.2021.3.93.61-72","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25257/tts.2021.3.93.61-72","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction. The establishment of the place of occurrence of a fire is one of the main directions of fire-technical expertise. Despite the fact that since the beginning of the XXI century, the productivity of research works devoted to the topic of establishing a fire source has increased, the modern approach does not provide sufficient accuracy of solving the problem, and the fire source is often localized with an unreasonably large error associated with the accuracy of determining the coordinates of the hearth in the room. The brief overview of the most significant studies in the field of fire detection given in the article is aimed at determining the direction of the development of ideas about this subject area, which will eventually make it possible to optimize the research processes, determine the most rational areas of work, allocate resources and regulate the risks of expert errors in the future. Goals and objectives. The purpose of the analysis is to consider the comprehensive problems of research in the field of fire source. The objectives of the study are to objectively assess the methodological approach to the establishment of a fire source, to identify the shortcomings of its establishment and to form the basis for the development of new approaches to the establishment of a fire source. Methods. A retrospective analysis of studies on the problems of establishing a fire source during fire-technical expertise was carried out. During the analysis, the following tasks were performed: selection and preparation of the necessary data for conducting an analytical review; analysis of information; a reasonable idea of the direction of development of the methodological approach to establishing the fire source, as well as the preparation of conclusions based on the conducted retrospective analysis. Results and their discussion. It is determined at what time it appeared, how it manifested itself and the question of the organization and content of research in the field of fire was changing. Since the beginning of the XXI century, mathematical modeling of the dynamics of fire hazards makes it possible to expand the possibilities of predicting results with a significant variation in the initial data on the location of the fire source, which will increase the effectiveness of the study. Conclusions. The second decade of the XXI century is characterized by the intensive development in Russia of works on the creation of new effective methods for establishing a fire source based on the comparison of the results of the study of mathematical models and actual fire data. Keywords: retrospective analysis, fire source, information processing method, fire-technical expertise, fire hazards","PeriodicalId":356653,"journal":{"name":"Technology of technosphere safety","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131129915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mathematical foundations of stochastic modeling of the dynamics of operational risks in sociotechnical systems 社会技术系统中操作风险动态随机建模的数学基础
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25257/tts.2022.2.96.161-179
M. Prus
Introduction. A significant number of accidents and emergencies are initiated by incidents caused by failures of technical facilities and various equipment for reasons related to operational factors. Therefore, the problem of creating new technologies that provide regulation within acceptable limits of the level of risk of dangerous incidents is becoming urgent. Such technologies can be created on the basis of organizing monitoring of real conditions and other operating factors, as well as their regulation through the introduction of appropriate technical and economic mechanisms. The purpose of the study is to develop new approaches to the study of the dynamics of operational risks in sociotechnical systems based on discrete-event modeling of the processes of occurrence of dangerous failures of technical objects. Methods. When constructing a stochastic model, technical objects are presented as material carriers of emerging and developing degradation changes caused by a certain set of sources of degradation processes that generate a corresponding set of failure modes. Results and discussion. A general model of operational risks has been built, based on the representation of the generalized operating time by an integral functional from the main operational factors and taking into account sets of sources of degradation processes. Analytical expressions are obtained to describe the dynamics of dangerous failures of technical objects and to determine the distribution function of dangerous failures, considering the values of the operating time functional and using three-parameter Weibull distributions. Conclusions. The development of methods for modeling multicomponent risks generated by dangerous failures of technical objects seems to be a promising direction for improving the information and analytical support of risk-based management in specialized systems aimed at reducing socio-economic losses caused by failures of technical objects and various equipment due to minimizing the flow of dangerous incidents generated by the main sources of failures. The proposed model of operational risks can be used in safety systems in solving a number of problems to determine various parameters of reliability and safety of operation of technical objects, as well as in predicting the expected socio-economic damage based on assessing the impact of operational factors on the generalized operating time and changing reliability parameters technical objects. Keywords: reliability and safety indicators, operation of technical objects, set of failure modes, three-parameter Weibull distribution.
介绍。相当数量的事故和紧急情况是由于与操作因素有关的原因造成技术设施和各种设备故障而引起的事件。因此,创造新技术,在可接受的危险事件风险水平范围内提供监管的问题变得紧迫起来。可以在组织监测实际情况和其他操作因素的基础上创造这种技术,并通过采用适当的技术和经济机制加以管制。该研究的目的是基于技术对象危险故障发生过程的离散事件建模,开发新的方法来研究社会技术系统中操作风险的动态。方法。在构建随机模型时,技术对象被描述为由一组降解过程源引起的新兴和发展中的退化变化的物质载体,这些退化过程源产生相应的一组失效模式。结果和讨论。基于主要运行因素的积分泛函表示广义运行时间,并考虑退化过程源集,建立了运行风险的一般模型。考虑运行时间泛函的取值,采用三参数威布尔分布,得到了描述技术对象危险失效动力学的解析表达式,并确定了危险失效的分布函数。结论。为技术对象的危险故障所产生的多成分风险建立模型的方法的发展似乎是一个有希望的方向,以改善专门系统中基于风险的管理的信息和分析支持,旨在减少技术对象和各种设备的故障所造成的社会经济损失,因为尽量减少主要故障来源所产生的危险事件的流动。所提出的运行风险模型可用于安全系统中解决确定技术对象运行可靠性和安全性的各种参数的问题,并可通过评估运行因素对广义运行时间和可靠性参数变化的影响来预测预期的社会经济损失。关键词:可靠性和安全性指标,技术对象运行,失效模式集,三参数威布尔分布
{"title":"Mathematical foundations of stochastic modeling of the dynamics of operational risks in sociotechnical systems","authors":"M. Prus","doi":"10.25257/tts.2022.2.96.161-179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25257/tts.2022.2.96.161-179","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction. A significant number of accidents and emergencies are initiated by incidents caused by failures of technical facilities and various equipment for reasons related to operational factors. Therefore, the problem of creating new technologies that provide regulation within acceptable limits of the level of risk of dangerous incidents is becoming urgent. Such technologies can be created on the basis of organizing monitoring of real conditions and other operating factors, as well as their regulation through the introduction of appropriate technical and economic mechanisms. The purpose of the study is to develop new approaches to the study of the dynamics of operational risks in sociotechnical systems based on discrete-event modeling of the processes of occurrence of dangerous failures of technical objects. Methods. When constructing a stochastic model, technical objects are presented as material carriers of emerging and developing degradation changes caused by a certain set of sources of degradation processes that generate a corresponding set of failure modes. Results and discussion. A general model of operational risks has been built, based on the representation of the generalized operating time by an integral functional from the main operational factors and taking into account sets of sources of degradation processes. Analytical expressions are obtained to describe the dynamics of dangerous failures of technical objects and to determine the distribution function of dangerous failures, considering the values of the operating time functional and using three-parameter Weibull distributions. Conclusions. The development of methods for modeling multicomponent risks generated by dangerous failures of technical objects seems to be a promising direction for improving the information and analytical support of risk-based management in specialized systems aimed at reducing socio-economic losses caused by failures of technical objects and various equipment due to minimizing the flow of dangerous incidents generated by the main sources of failures. The proposed model of operational risks can be used in safety systems in solving a number of problems to determine various parameters of reliability and safety of operation of technical objects, as well as in predicting the expected socio-economic damage based on assessing the impact of operational factors on the generalized operating time and changing reliability parameters technical objects. Keywords: reliability and safety indicators, operation of technical objects, set of failure modes, three-parameter Weibull distribution.","PeriodicalId":356653,"journal":{"name":"Technology of technosphere safety","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126826884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multifactory mathematical model of the dependence of the expected reduction of integrated damage from a number of preventive measures in the residential sector of Russia 多工厂数学模型的依赖预期减少综合损害从一些预防措施在俄罗斯的住宅部门
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25257/tts.2022.3.97.100-118
D. V. Zobkov, N. L. Prisyazhnyuk, A. Tanygina
Introduction. The article analyzes the statistical data of a number of preventive measures in the residential sectors of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the period 2020-2021, and based on these data, a multifactorial mathematical model is developed for assessing the dependence of the expected reduction in integral damage on a number of preventive measures. Significant and less significant factors of preventive measures that affect the number of deaths, injuries and damage from fire in residential sectors are identified. The optimal predictive value for the model was obtained and the zones of acceptable and unacceptable marginality were determined. Based on the calculations, an assessment of the levels of fire danger in the residential sectors of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation is presented, which were determined on the basis of an integral socio-economic indicator of fire risk. Targets and goals. The purpose of the study is to determine the significant and less significant factors of preventive measures in the residential sectors and to determine the optimal predictive value. Methods. To solve the research problems, the methods of system analysis, multiple regression, statistical analysis, mathematical statistics, etc. were used. Results and discussion. An analysis has been carried out and a multifactorial mathematical model of multiple regression of the dependence of the expected reduction in integral damage has been developed. By calculation, based on the analysis of the integral socio-economic indicator of fire risk, the regions of the Russian Federation with the most fire hazardous level of the residential sector were identified. Conclusion. A number of significant and less significant factors of preventive measures obtained in the work in the residential sectors of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation make it possible to improve management decisions in the field of preventive work and reduce the level of fire danger in the residential sector of the constituent entities of Russia. The model forecast showed that with an increase in significant factors = 60 %, = 80,4 %, = 86,4 %, = 91,2 %, the number of people killed in fires in the residential sector in 35 subjects decreases by 8, 95 people, with confidence limits. Keywords: residential sector, multiple regression, mathematical model, significant factors, fire danger level, fire risk, preventive measures, integral damage.
介绍。本文分析了2020-2021年期间俄罗斯联邦主体住宅部门多项预防措施的统计数据,并基于这些数据建立了一个多因素数学模型,用于评估预期整体损害减少对多项预防措施的依赖程度。确定了影响住宅部门火灾造成的死亡、受伤和损失的重要和不那么重要的预防措施因素。得到了该模型的最优预测值,并确定了可接受和不可接受的边际区域。根据这些计算,对俄罗斯联邦组成实体的住宅部门的火灾危险程度进行了评估,这是根据火灾风险的综合社会经济指标确定的。目标和目标。研究的目的是确定住宅部门预防措施的显著性和不显著性因素,并确定最佳预测值。方法。针对研究中存在的问题,采用了系统分析、多元回归、统计分析、数理统计等方法。结果和讨论。对此进行了分析,建立了积分损伤期望减小依赖关系的多元回归多因子数学模型。通过计算,根据对火灾危险综合社会经济指标的分析,确定了俄罗斯联邦住宅部门火灾危险程度最高的地区。结论。在俄罗斯联邦组成实体住宅部门的工作中获得了一些重要和不太重要的预防措施因素,这使得有可能改善预防工作领域的管理决策,并降低俄罗斯组成实体住宅部门的火灾危险程度。模型预测表明,随着显著因子= 60%,= 80,4%,= 86,4%,= 92,2%的增加,35个研究对象的住宅火灾死亡人数减少8,95人,具有置信限。关键词:住宅小区,多元回归,数学模型,显著因素,火灾危险等级,火灾风险,预防措施,整体损害
{"title":"Multifactory mathematical model of the dependence of the expected reduction of integrated damage from a number of preventive measures in the residential sector of Russia","authors":"D. V. Zobkov, N. L. Prisyazhnyuk, A. Tanygina","doi":"10.25257/tts.2022.3.97.100-118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25257/tts.2022.3.97.100-118","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction. The article analyzes the statistical data of a number of preventive measures in the residential sectors of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the period 2020-2021, and based on these data, a multifactorial mathematical model is developed for assessing the dependence of the expected reduction in integral damage on a number of preventive measures. Significant and less significant factors of preventive measures that affect the number of deaths, injuries and damage from fire in residential sectors are identified. The optimal predictive value for the model was obtained and the zones of acceptable and unacceptable marginality were determined. Based on the calculations, an assessment of the levels of fire danger in the residential sectors of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation is presented, which were determined on the basis of an integral socio-economic indicator of fire risk. Targets and goals. The purpose of the study is to determine the significant and less significant factors of preventive measures in the residential sectors and to determine the optimal predictive value. Methods. To solve the research problems, the methods of system analysis, multiple regression, statistical analysis, mathematical statistics, etc. were used. Results and discussion. An analysis has been carried out and a multifactorial mathematical model of multiple regression of the dependence of the expected reduction in integral damage has been developed. By calculation, based on the analysis of the integral socio-economic indicator of fire risk, the regions of the Russian Federation with the most fire hazardous level of the residential sector were identified. Conclusion. A number of significant and less significant factors of preventive measures obtained in the work in the residential sectors of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation make it possible to improve management decisions in the field of preventive work and reduce the level of fire danger in the residential sector of the constituent entities of Russia. The model forecast showed that with an increase in significant factors = 60 %, = 80,4 %, = 86,4 %, = 91,2 %, the number of people killed in fires in the residential sector in 35 subjects decreases by 8, 95 people, with confidence limits. Keywords: residential sector, multiple regression, mathematical model, significant factors, fire danger level, fire risk, preventive measures, integral damage.","PeriodicalId":356653,"journal":{"name":"Technology of technosphere safety","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132310149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the effect of the duration of operation of metal structures on their fire resistance 金属结构使用年限对其耐火性能的影响
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25257/tts.2022.1.95.37-48
M. M. Shakhabov, A. Sivenkov
Introduction. The solution of the issue of assessing the fire resistance limit of metal structures under the influence of prolonged mechanical stress and environmental factors, as well as an objective assessment of their behavior in fire conditions should be inextricably linked with the aging process, leading to changes in the physical and chemical, mechanical properties of metals. The analysis of scientific works in the field of fire resistance of metal structures indicates that the aging process of metals is not actually taken into account when considering the issue of assessing the limits of fire resistance of these structures. It is not clear to what extent the aging factor of metals can influence the behavior of metal structures in fire conditions. In this regard, it is undoubtedly necessary to develop scientific ideas about the behavior of metal structures in fire conditions, taking into account the duration of their operation, the relationship of this behavior with processes occurring under prolonged exposure to environmental factors, as well as obtaining new experimental data on the limits of fire resistance of metal structures of various service life. Aims and purposes. Formation of scientific opinion on the peculiarities of the influence of the duration of operation of metal structures on their fire resistance. Methods. The article used the method of analytical research based on the results of the analysis of works in the field of metal aging processes, taking into account the prolonged impact of mechanical stress and various environmental factors. Results and their discussion. Based on the results of the analysis of theoretical and experimental studies, it is suggested that the fire resistance of metal structures may decrease as a result of their prolonged operation. The possibility of reducing the fire resistance of metal structures is based on the research results of many authors, whose works revealed characteristic changes in the chemical composition, structural elements, properties of metals as a result of prolonged operation of metal structures. Conclusion. The result of the analysis of scientific papers shows that the long-term operation of metal structures and the impact of various environmental factors can lead to a decrease in the limits of their fire resistance. The possibility of reducing the fire resistance of metal structures as a result of their long-term operation, which was not previously taken into account in regulatory documents and the calculation methodology for assessing fire resistance, is considered. Keywords: fire resistance, fire resistance limit, metals, steel structures, service life, aging.
介绍。解决金属结构在长时间机械应力和环境因素影响下的耐火极限评定问题,客观评价其在火灾条件下的行为,应与老化过程密不可分,老化过程导致金属的物理、化学、机械性能发生变化。对金属结构耐火极限的科学研究表明,在考虑金属结构耐火极限的评定问题时,金属的老化过程实际上并没有被考虑在内。目前尚不清楚金属的老化因素在多大程度上影响金属结构在火灾条件下的行为。在这方面,无疑有必要发展关于金属结构在火灾条件下的行为的科学思想,考虑到它们的运行时间,这种行为与长期暴露于环境因素下发生的过程的关系,以及获得关于不同使用寿命金属结构耐火极限的新实验数据。目标和目的。对金属结构运行时间对耐火性能影响的特殊性形成科学的认识。方法。本文采用分析研究的方法,在对工程领域的金属时效过程进行分析的基础上,考虑到机械应力的长期影响和各种环境因素。结果和讨论。理论分析和试验研究表明,金属结构的耐火性可能会因其长期使用而降低。降低金属结构耐火性能的可能性是基于许多作者的研究成果,他们的作品揭示了金属结构长期使用导致金属的化学成分、结构元素和性能发生的特征性变化。结论。科学论文的分析结果表明,金属结构的长期运行和各种环境因素的影响会导致其耐火极限的降低。考虑到由于金属结构的长期运行而降低其耐火性的可能性,这在以前的监管文件和评估耐火性的计算方法中没有考虑到。关键词:耐火性,耐火极限,金属,钢结构,使用寿命,老化
{"title":"On the effect of the duration of operation of metal structures on their fire resistance","authors":"M. M. Shakhabov, A. Sivenkov","doi":"10.25257/tts.2022.1.95.37-48","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25257/tts.2022.1.95.37-48","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction. The solution of the issue of assessing the fire resistance limit of metal structures under the influence of prolonged mechanical stress and environmental factors, as well as an objective assessment of their behavior in fire conditions should be inextricably linked with the aging process, leading to changes in the physical and chemical, mechanical properties of metals. The analysis of scientific works in the field of fire resistance of metal structures indicates that the aging process of metals is not actually taken into account when considering the issue of assessing the limits of fire resistance of these structures. It is not clear to what extent the aging factor of metals can influence the behavior of metal structures in fire conditions. In this regard, it is undoubtedly necessary to develop scientific ideas about the behavior of metal structures in fire conditions, taking into account the duration of their operation, the relationship of this behavior with processes occurring under prolonged exposure to environmental factors, as well as obtaining new experimental data on the limits of fire resistance of metal structures of various service life. Aims and purposes. Formation of scientific opinion on the peculiarities of the influence of the duration of operation of metal structures on their fire resistance. Methods. The article used the method of analytical research based on the results of the analysis of works in the field of metal aging processes, taking into account the prolonged impact of mechanical stress and various environmental factors. Results and their discussion. Based on the results of the analysis of theoretical and experimental studies, it is suggested that the fire resistance of metal structures may decrease as a result of their prolonged operation. The possibility of reducing the fire resistance of metal structures is based on the research results of many authors, whose works revealed characteristic changes in the chemical composition, structural elements, properties of metals as a result of prolonged operation of metal structures. Conclusion. The result of the analysis of scientific papers shows that the long-term operation of metal structures and the impact of various environmental factors can lead to a decrease in the limits of their fire resistance. The possibility of reducing the fire resistance of metal structures as a result of their long-term operation, which was not previously taken into account in regulatory documents and the calculation methodology for assessing fire resistance, is considered. Keywords: fire resistance, fire resistance limit, metals, steel structures, service life, aging.","PeriodicalId":356653,"journal":{"name":"Technology of technosphere safety","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133533436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A comprehensive method for studying the degree of thermal damage to steel elements of vehicles using field methods 一种现场法研究车辆钢构件热损伤程度的综合方法
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25257/tts.2021.3.93.137-151
Y. Motorygin, G. Sikorova
Introduction. Every year, the number of registered motor vehicles in Russia increases, with an increase of 30 % over the past 10 years. The desire to extend the service life of existing vehicles leads to an increase in breakdowns that lead to fire. The task of identifying places where there was an emergency situation that led to a fire is difficult, especially in the case of a complete burnout of the fuel load of the car. Goals and objectives. The purpose of the work is to create a methodology by which it is possible to conduct studies of cold-formed steel products of the vehicle body to determine the zone of the greatest thermal damage. Each method determines one of the characteristics that changes when the steel is exposed to high temperatures. The main task of the work is to test the possibility of applying these methods in a certain sequence to determine the zone that has undergone more annealing. Research methods. The complex method includes induction thickness measurement, which allows measuring the thickness of a layer of high-temperature oxide; a method for measuring the coercive force or demagnetization currents, as well as a method for measuring microhardness. The latter method will determine the decrease in the hardness of the vehicle body after exposure to high temperatures. Results and its discussion. The obtained data on the degree of thermal damage to cold-deformed steel products of the car body by three independent field methods will increase the reliability of the combustion start zone, which in turn will determine the search zone for the cause of ignition. Conclusion. Determining the specific cause of the fire during the maintenance, repair and operation of vehicles will allow you to exclude similar emergency modes in the future. The introduction of a comprehensive method for investigating the condition of an object after a fire will significantly increase the level of reliability of the results obtained when searching for a breakdown that led to a fire. Keywords: fire source, car body, thermal changes, field methods, complex technique, magnetic properties, scale thickness, microhardness
介绍。俄罗斯的注册机动车数量每年都在增加,在过去10年里增长了30%。延长现有车辆使用寿命的愿望导致导致火灾的故障增加。确定导致火灾的紧急情况发生的地点是很困难的,特别是在汽车燃油完全耗尽的情况下。目标和目的。这项工作的目的是创建一种方法,通过该方法可以对车身冷弯型钢产品进行研究,以确定最大热损伤区域。当钢暴露在高温下时,每种方法都决定了一种特性的变化。这项工作的主要任务是测试在一定的顺序中应用这些方法的可能性,以确定经历了更多退火的区域。研究方法。该复合方法包括感应测厚,其允许测量一层高温氧化物的厚度;一种测量矫顽力或退磁电流的方法,以及测量显微硬度的方法。后一种方法将确定暴露在高温下的车身硬度的下降。结果及其讨论。通过三种独立场法获得的车身冷变形钢制品热损伤程度数据,将提高燃烧起始区域的可靠性,进而确定起火原因的搜索区域。结论。在车辆的维护、修理和操作过程中确定火灾的具体原因,将使您在未来排除类似的紧急模式。引入一种全面的方法来调查火灾后物体的状况,将大大提高在搜索导致火灾的故障时获得的结果的可靠性。关键词:火源,车身,热变化,场法,复合技术,磁性能,刻度厚度,显微硬度
{"title":"A comprehensive method for studying the degree of thermal damage to steel elements of vehicles using field methods","authors":"Y. Motorygin, G. Sikorova","doi":"10.25257/tts.2021.3.93.137-151","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25257/tts.2021.3.93.137-151","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction. Every year, the number of registered motor vehicles in Russia increases, with an increase of 30 % over the past 10 years. The desire to extend the service life of existing vehicles leads to an increase in breakdowns that lead to fire. The task of identifying places where there was an emergency situation that led to a fire is difficult, especially in the case of a complete burnout of the fuel load of the car. Goals and objectives. The purpose of the work is to create a methodology by which it is possible to conduct studies of cold-formed steel products of the vehicle body to determine the zone of the greatest thermal damage. Each method determines one of the characteristics that changes when the steel is exposed to high temperatures. The main task of the work is to test the possibility of applying these methods in a certain sequence to determine the zone that has undergone more annealing. Research methods. The complex method includes induction thickness measurement, which allows measuring the thickness of a layer of high-temperature oxide; a method for measuring the coercive force or demagnetization currents, as well as a method for measuring microhardness. The latter method will determine the decrease in the hardness of the vehicle body after exposure to high temperatures. Results and its discussion. The obtained data on the degree of thermal damage to cold-deformed steel products of the car body by three independent field methods will increase the reliability of the combustion start zone, which in turn will determine the search zone for the cause of ignition. Conclusion. Determining the specific cause of the fire during the maintenance, repair and operation of vehicles will allow you to exclude similar emergency modes in the future. The introduction of a comprehensive method for investigating the condition of an object after a fire will significantly increase the level of reliability of the results obtained when searching for a breakdown that led to a fire. Keywords: fire source, car body, thermal changes, field methods, complex technique, magnetic properties, scale thickness, microhardness","PeriodicalId":356653,"journal":{"name":"Technology of technosphere safety","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131453352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Development and experimental testing of special technical devices for evacuation of children from rope parks 绳索公园儿童疏散专用技术装置的研制和试验试验
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25257/tts.2021.1.91.33-41
E. Yagodka, D. Drozdov
Introduction. The paper describes the results of a model experiment to test the performance of a special technical device for descending children from the height of the rope Park route, the theoretical model of which was previously proposed by the authors. Taking into account the results of the experiment and using the theory of solving inventive tasks, a model of a new trigger device was developed and tested. Goals and objectives. The main purpose of the study is to check the functioning of the trigger device with previously defined required parameters, including an assessment of the performance of the brake mechanism, checking the required descent speed, as well as a preliminary assessment of the reliability of a special technical device. Methods. The research used well-known scientific methods: analysis, synthesis, field experiment, theory of inventive problem solving, graph theory. Results and discussion. The results of the study showed that the previously proposed device can be used for timely evacuation of children, but it requires design improvements to increase its versatility - to ensure that it can be used for lowering children weighing from 15 to 40 kg. Tests of the new model of the device have shown its effectiveness and the possibility of using it for descending children of various weights at the required safe speed. At the same time, all the nodal parts of the device function coherently, and no malfunctions were detected either during or after the experiment. Conclusion. It was found as a result of the study that the development of a trigger device based on a new model is a promising task with a guaranteed positive result. Using the theory of solving inventive tasks allows us to increase the efficiency of creative activity and minimize the cost of finding the "right" solution. Keywords: rope park, descent device, evacuation, experiment, physical model, theory of solving inventive problem
介绍。本文介绍了一种专门用于儿童从绳索公园路线高度下降的技术装置的模型实验结果,该装置的理论模型是作者先前提出的。根据实验结果,运用解决创造性任务的理论,建立了一种新型触发装置的模型并进行了测试。目标和目的。研究的主要目的是用先前定义的所需参数检查触发装置的功能,包括评估制动机构的性能,检查所需的下降速度,以及对特殊技术装置的可靠性进行初步评估。方法。本研究采用了著名的科学方法:分析、综合、现场实验、创造性问题解决理论、图论。结果和讨论。研究结果表明,之前提出的装置可以用于及时疏散儿童,但需要改进设计以增加其通用性,以确保它可以用于降低体重从15到40公斤的儿童。对这种新型装置的测试表明了它的有效性,并且可以用它来让不同体重的儿童以所需的安全速度下降。同时,装置各节点部件工作一致,实验中及实验后均未发现任何故障。结论。研究结果表明,基于新模型的触发装置的开发是一项有前景的任务,具有一定的积极效果。利用解决创造性任务的理论,我们可以提高创造性活动的效率,并将寻找“正确”解决方案的成本降至最低。关键词:绳索公园,下降装置,疏散,实验,物理模型,解决发明问题的理论
{"title":"Development and experimental testing of special technical devices for evacuation of children from rope parks","authors":"E. Yagodka, D. Drozdov","doi":"10.25257/tts.2021.1.91.33-41","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25257/tts.2021.1.91.33-41","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction. The paper describes the results of a model experiment to test the performance of a special technical device for descending children from the height of the rope Park route, the theoretical model of which was previously proposed by the authors. Taking into account the results of the experiment and using the theory of solving inventive tasks, a model of a new trigger device was developed and tested. Goals and objectives. The main purpose of the study is to check the functioning of the trigger device with previously defined required parameters, including an assessment of the performance of the brake mechanism, checking the required descent speed, as well as a preliminary assessment of the reliability of a special technical device. Methods. The research used well-known scientific methods: analysis, synthesis, field experiment, theory of inventive problem solving, graph theory. Results and discussion. The results of the study showed that the previously proposed device can be used for timely evacuation of children, but it requires design improvements to increase its versatility - to ensure that it can be used for lowering children weighing from 15 to 40 kg. Tests of the new model of the device have shown its effectiveness and the possibility of using it for descending children of various weights at the required safe speed. At the same time, all the nodal parts of the device function coherently, and no malfunctions were detected either during or after the experiment. Conclusion. It was found as a result of the study that the development of a trigger device based on a new model is a promising task with a guaranteed positive result. Using the theory of solving inventive tasks allows us to increase the efficiency of creative activity and minimize the cost of finding the \"right\" solution. Keywords: rope park, descent device, evacuation, experiment, physical model, theory of solving inventive problem","PeriodicalId":356653,"journal":{"name":"Technology of technosphere safety","volume":"141 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131865692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessment of the parameters of the rapid response of fire and rescue units depending on the time of day 评估火灾和救援单位在一天中不同时间的快速反应参数
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25257/tts.2021.3.93.126-136
A. Poroshin, V. V. Kharin, E. V. Bobrinev, E. I. Udavtsova, A. A. Kondashov
Introduction. The change in the speed of the fire and rescue subdivisions to the place of call, depending on the time of day, is studied. The study is related to the determination of the locations of fire departments. Goals and objectives. The study of the parameters of the rapid response of fire and rescue units was carried out. For cities of the Russian Federation with a population of more than 1 million inhabitants of the Russian Federation for the period 2019-2021, statistical distributions by hours of the day of the number of trips to fires of fire and rescue units, the speed of mobile vehicles, the time of travel to the place of call are constructed. The share of departures for which the arrival time of the first fire and rescue unit exceeds the standard value established by Federal Law of July 22, 2008 No. 123-FZ is determined. Results and discussion. As a result of the study, it was revealed that the maximum value of the speed of following fire and rescue units is observed in the daytime from 10 to 15 hours - 34 km/h, the minimum value is reached at night during the period from 1 to 3 hours - 31 km/h. A study of the parameters of the functioning of fire and rescue units in cities with a population of more than 1 million inhabitants showed that the operational load on fire and rescue units in the daytime increases significantly, which can lead to an adjustment of the plan for attracting forces and resources, when, when a call is received, the guard on duty will be already busy serving another call. These circumstances lead to an increase in the travel time of fire and rescue divisions. As a result, the share of calls for which 123-FZ norms are not met is increasing. The share of such trips during the daytime increases to 18 % versus 8-10 % at night. Conclusions. When determining the locations of fire and rescue units, it is necessary to take into account peak loads that occur during the day. Keywords: fire and rescue subdivisions, speed of following, time of following, area of normative service, composition of forces and means
介绍。研究了火灾和救援分队到达呼叫地点的速度随时间的变化。这项研究与确定消防部门的位置有关。目标和目的。对消防救援单位快速反应参数进行了研究。对于2019-2021年期间俄罗斯联邦人口超过100万的俄罗斯联邦城市,按小时计算了消防和救援单位前往火灾的次数、移动车辆的速度、前往呼叫地点的时间的统计分布。确定第一个消防和救援单位到达时间超过2008年7月22日第123-FZ号联邦法规定的标准值的离场份额。结果和讨论。研究结果表明,跟随消防和救援单位的速度最大值在白天10至15小时(34 km/h),最小值在夜间1至3小时(31 km/h)。对100万人口以上城市消防救援单位功能参数的研究表明,白天消防救援单位的运行负荷显著增加,当接到呼叫时,值班警卫已经忙于处理另一个呼叫,这可能导致部队和资源吸引计划的调整。这些情况导致消防和救援师的旅行时间增加。因此,未达到123-FZ标准的呼吁书所占比例正在增加。这类出行在白天的比例增加到18%,而在夜间则增加到8- 10%。结论。在确定消防和救援单位的位置时,有必要考虑到白天发生的高峰负荷。关键词:消防救援分区、跟随速度、跟随时间、规范服务范围、力量和手段组成
{"title":"Assessment of the parameters of the rapid response of fire and rescue units depending on the time of day","authors":"A. Poroshin, V. V. Kharin, E. V. Bobrinev, E. I. Udavtsova, A. A. Kondashov","doi":"10.25257/tts.2021.3.93.126-136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25257/tts.2021.3.93.126-136","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction. The change in the speed of the fire and rescue subdivisions to the place of call, depending on the time of day, is studied. The study is related to the determination of the locations of fire departments. Goals and objectives. The study of the parameters of the rapid response of fire and rescue units was carried out. For cities of the Russian Federation with a population of more than 1 million inhabitants of the Russian Federation for the period 2019-2021, statistical distributions by hours of the day of the number of trips to fires of fire and rescue units, the speed of mobile vehicles, the time of travel to the place of call are constructed. The share of departures for which the arrival time of the first fire and rescue unit exceeds the standard value established by Federal Law of July 22, 2008 No. 123-FZ is determined. Results and discussion. As a result of the study, it was revealed that the maximum value of the speed of following fire and rescue units is observed in the daytime from 10 to 15 hours - 34 km/h, the minimum value is reached at night during the period from 1 to 3 hours - 31 km/h. A study of the parameters of the functioning of fire and rescue units in cities with a population of more than 1 million inhabitants showed that the operational load on fire and rescue units in the daytime increases significantly, which can lead to an adjustment of the plan for attracting forces and resources, when, when a call is received, the guard on duty will be already busy serving another call. These circumstances lead to an increase in the travel time of fire and rescue divisions. As a result, the share of calls for which 123-FZ norms are not met is increasing. The share of such trips during the daytime increases to 18 % versus 8-10 % at night. Conclusions. When determining the locations of fire and rescue units, it is necessary to take into account peak loads that occur during the day. Keywords: fire and rescue subdivisions, speed of following, time of following, area of normative service, composition of forces and means","PeriodicalId":356653,"journal":{"name":"Technology of technosphere safety","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133615343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Numerical method for determining the probabilistic characteristics of individual multicomponent risks 确定单个多分量风险概率特征的数值方法
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.25257/tts.2022.4.98.144-157
M. Prus, Miras Sabyrgalievich Zhubanov, Jurij Vital'evich Prus
Introduction. As a rule, the quantitative assessment of the probabilistic characteristics of multicomponent risks involves the analysis of a large amount of statistical data, but quite often the available sample datasets are not representative or do not meet the requirements for the organization of systematic statistical accounting. Therefore, the scientific substantiation of the admissibility of using expert methods for quantitative assessments of the probabilistic parameters of rare events and phenomena is one of the urgent problems in the field of risk analysis and safety modeling of sociotechnical systems. The purpose of the study is to construct a numerical method for determining the probabilistic parameters of a stochastic model of multicomponent risks based on the procedure of paired comparisons by experts of the possibilities of various outcomes when a threat is realized and accepting a hypothesis about a functional relationship between the results of subjective assessment and objective measurement of probabilities. Methods. When constructing a numerical method, the procedure of pairwise comparisons is performed by experts for particular conditional probabilities of the occurrence of various consequences of the impact of hazardous factors on protected objects related to the given options for performing a set of protection functions. Determining a specific type of functional relationship between the results of a subjective assessment and an objective measurement of probabilities is possible on the basis of a retrospective forecast with the selection of a parameter that achieves the best correspondence between the simulated damage and real statistical data. Results and discussion. A numerical method is proposed for determining the probabilistic characteristics of multicomponent risks, based on the objectification of expert estimates of the probabilities of possible outcomes when exposed to hazardous factors on protected objects. The method of calculating subjective probabilities and their representation in a rank scale with further conversion into numerical values of the scale of ratios of the corresponding objective probabilities is substantiated. Findings. The application of the proposed numerical method for determining the probabilistic characteristics of multicomponent risks based on expert assessments is possible provided that a functional relationship is set between the results of a subjective assessment of the possibility of outcomes and an objective measurement of their probabilities in accordance with Stevens' psychophysical law. Keywords: expert assessments, multicomponent risks, psychophysical law, measurement theory.
介绍。通常,对多成分风险概率特征的定量评估涉及对大量统计数据的分析,但往往可用的样本数据集不具有代表性或不符合组织系统统计核算的要求。因此,利用专家方法对罕见事件和现象的概率参数进行定量评估的可接受性的科学证实是社会技术系统风险分析和安全建模领域的紧迫问题之一。本研究的目的是在专家对威胁发生时各种结果的可能性进行配对比较的过程中,接受主观评估结果与客观概率测量结果之间存在函数关系的假设,构建一种确定多分量风险随机模型概率参数的数值方法。方法。在构建数值方法时,专家对与执行一组保护功能的给定选项相关的危险因素对被保护对象的影响的各种后果发生的特定条件概率进行两两比较。确定主观评估结果和客观概率测量结果之间的特定类型的函数关系是可能的,基于回顾性预测,选择一个参数,在模拟损伤和实际统计数据之间实现最佳对应。结果和讨论。提出了一种确定多组分风险概率特征的数值方法,该方法基于专家对受保护对象暴露于危险因素时可能结果概率的客观估计。证明了主观概率的计算方法及其在等级标度中的表示,并进一步转化为相应客观概率的比例标度的数值。发现。如果根据Stevens的心理物理定律,在结果可能性的主观评估结果和其概率的客观测量结果之间建立了函数关系,则可以应用所提出的数值方法来确定基于专家评估的多成分风险的概率特征。关键词:专家评估,多成分风险,心理物理规律,测量理论。
{"title":"Numerical method for determining the probabilistic characteristics of individual multicomponent risks","authors":"M. Prus, Miras Sabyrgalievich Zhubanov, Jurij Vital'evich Prus","doi":"10.25257/tts.2022.4.98.144-157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25257/tts.2022.4.98.144-157","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction. As a rule, the quantitative assessment of the probabilistic characteristics of multicomponent risks involves the analysis of a large amount of statistical data, but quite often the available sample datasets are not representative or do not meet the requirements for the organization of systematic statistical accounting. Therefore, the scientific substantiation of the admissibility of using expert methods for quantitative assessments of the probabilistic parameters of rare events and phenomena is one of the urgent problems in the field of risk analysis and safety modeling of sociotechnical systems. The purpose of the study is to construct a numerical method for determining the probabilistic parameters of a stochastic model of multicomponent risks based on the procedure of paired comparisons by experts of the possibilities of various outcomes when a threat is realized and accepting a hypothesis about a functional relationship between the results of subjective assessment and objective measurement of probabilities. Methods. When constructing a numerical method, the procedure of pairwise comparisons is performed by experts for particular conditional probabilities of the occurrence of various consequences of the impact of hazardous factors on protected objects related to the given options for performing a set of protection functions. Determining a specific type of functional relationship between the results of a subjective assessment and an objective measurement of probabilities is possible on the basis of a retrospective forecast with the selection of a parameter that achieves the best correspondence between the simulated damage and real statistical data. Results and discussion. A numerical method is proposed for determining the probabilistic characteristics of multicomponent risks, based on the objectification of expert estimates of the probabilities of possible outcomes when exposed to hazardous factors on protected objects. The method of calculating subjective probabilities and their representation in a rank scale with further conversion into numerical values of the scale of ratios of the corresponding objective probabilities is substantiated. Findings. The application of the proposed numerical method for determining the probabilistic characteristics of multicomponent risks based on expert assessments is possible provided that a functional relationship is set between the results of a subjective assessment of the possibility of outcomes and an objective measurement of their probabilities in accordance with Stevens' psychophysical law. Keywords: expert assessments, multicomponent risks, psychophysical law, measurement theory.","PeriodicalId":356653,"journal":{"name":"Technology of technosphere safety","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122281756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Technology of technosphere safety
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1