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Future Energy Supply Possibilities and their Implications on Nepal’s Energy Security 未来能源供应的可能性及其对尼泊尔能源安全的影响
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-05-17 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-5236.4231
K. Gautam, A. M. Nakarmi, S. Shakya
Nepal is 100% dependent on imported petroleum products as it has no as yet viable proven reserve. The import of petroleum is increasing at an alarming rate (15.2% annually) which is creating not only a burden on the national economy but also raising the issue of energy supply security and environmental degradation. In this study, eleven distinct significant indicators have been used to evaluate the energy security status of the country. Since there is no such detailed quantification of indicators carried out in previous research, this study can be a significant input to policymakers and planners. It also explores the policy intervention measures to improve energy security status in the context of a developing country that is increasingly dependent on imported commercial fuels. Five different scenarios have been developed considering 2017 as a base year and 2040 as an end year with different economic growth rates 4.5%, 7.2% and 9.2% as main driving parameter. Two additional policy intervention scenarios (Policy-I and Policy-II), prioritizing electrification to enhance energy security, have been analyzed. The energy demands have been projected using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED), while the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) tool has been used to analyze the supply, the energy supply requirement, fuel import dependence, cost, as well as the size of power plant requirement under different scenarios. The results manifest that there would be a reduction in Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) requirement by 1.14% and 8.7% under policy-I and Policy-II scenarios respectively in the year 2040, compared to the reference scenario (7.2%) resulting in improved energy security, economic vulnerability, and GHG mitigation. It indicates that the use of indigenous renewable energy resources mainly hydro is indispensable for ensuring the energy security of Nepal.
尼泊尔100%依赖进口石油产品,因为它还没有可行的探明储量。石油进口正以惊人的速度增长(每年15.2%),这不仅给国民经济带来了负担,还引发了能源供应安全和环境恶化的问题。在这项研究中,使用了11个不同的重要指标来评估该国的能源安全状况。由于之前的研究中没有对指标进行如此详细的量化,这项研究可以为决策者和规划者提供重要的投入。它还探讨了在日益依赖进口商业燃料的发展中国家背景下,为改善能源安全状况而采取的政策干预措施。将2017年作为基准年,2040年作为结束年,以4.5%、7.2%和9.2%的不同经济增长率作为主要驱动参数,制定了五种不同的情景。分析了另外两种政策干预情景(政策一和政策二),即优先考虑电气化以加强能源安全。能源需求已使用能源需求分析模型(MAED)进行预测,而低排放分析平台(LEAP)工具已用于分析不同情景下的供应、能源供应需求、燃料进口依赖性、成本以及发电厂需求规模。结果表明,与参考情景(7.2%)相比,2040年政策一和政策二情景下的一次能源总供应需求将分别减少1.14%和8.7%,从而改善能源安全、经济脆弱性和温室气体减排。它指出,使用以水力为主的本土可再生能源资源对于确保尼泊尔的能源安全是必不可少的。
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引用次数: 0
The Power of Economies of Scale: A Wind Industry Case Study 规模经济的力量:风电行业案例研究
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-05-17 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-5236.4234
Gary A. Nowakoski, D. G. Loomis
This paper investigates the impact that economies of scale have had in the success of the wind industry in the United States since 1980 including the trend to larger wind turbines and wind farms and assembly learning curve effects. Analyses utilize average U.S. wind industry historical data to assess past performance and predict the future economic potential for both onshore and offshore wind turbine industries. The intent of this analysis is to serve as a case study to demonstrate the importance of selecting the right product design platform and how the ability to scale a technology can impact the success of products and, in this case, an entire multi-billion dollar industry. From the early stages of development, the wind industry recognized this opportunity and enabled the commercialization of larger and larger wind turbines and subsequently exploited the significant economies of scale possible in producing low-cost electricity via large, horizontal axis turbines and associated wind plants. The cost to produce electricity was reduced more than six-fold over this timeframe and is competitive today with conventional fossil-fuel power generation alternatives. The physics of horizontal axis wind turbines enables them to scale up disproportionately in electric power output and annual energy production with increased size/nameplate rating.
本文调查了自1980年以来规模经济对美国风电行业成功的影响,包括大型风力涡轮机和风电场的趋势以及装配学习曲线效应。分析利用美国风电行业的平均历史数据来评估过去的业绩,并预测陆上和海上风机行业的未来经济潜力。该分析的目的是作为一个案例研究,以证明选择正确的产品设计平台的重要性,以及扩展技术的能力如何影响产品的成功,在这种情况下,影响整个数十亿美元的行业。从发展的早期阶段起,风电行业就认识到了这一机会,并实现了越来越大的风力涡轮机的商业化,随后利用了通过大型横轴涡轮机和相关风力发电厂生产低成本电力的巨大规模经济。在此期间,发电成本降低了六倍多,与传统化石燃料发电替代品相比具有竞争力。横轴风力涡轮机的物理特性使其能够随着尺寸/铭牌额定值的增加,在电力输出和年能源生产方面不成比例地扩大。
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引用次数: 1
Medium and Long Term Power Load Forecasting Based on Stacked-GRU 基于堆积GRU的中长期电力负荷预测
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-5236.4141
Zheng Yang, Jing Cui, Qiangjian Zhang, Chunli Yin, Li Yang, Pengfeng Qiu, Kai Hu, Junwen Yang
Power load forecasting plays a critical role in energy economy development and distribution of power systems. Predicting medium and long term power loads have facilitated the development of power grids. In this paper, a stacked-gated recurrent unit (Stacked-GRU) is applied to establish a power load forecasting model by integrating economic factors. Meanwhile, it also conducts medium and long term power load (MLTPL) forecasting based on the power load data of Yunnan Province from 2009 to 2020. By comparing different optimizers, it is found that the Adam optimizer works the best on the Stacked-GRU architecture. In the experiment of medium and long term power load forecasting for Yunnan Province, the values of MAPE, RMSE, and MAE of the model are 9.76%, 1.412, and 1.14, respectively, all of which outperform other deep learning comparison algorithms.
电力负荷预测在电力系统的能源经济发展和配电中起着至关重要的作用。预测中长期电力负荷促进了电网的发展。本文应用堆叠门控递归单元(stacked GRU),通过综合经济因素,建立了电力负荷预测模型。同时,根据云南省2009-2010年的电力负荷数据,进行了中长期电力负荷预测。通过比较不同的优化器,发现Adam优化器在Stacked GRU架构上工作得最好。在云南省中长期电力负荷预测实验中,该模型的MAPE、RMSE和MAE值分别为9.76%、1.412和1.14,均优于其他深度学习比较算法。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of Digital Rural Development from the Perspective of Rural Revitalization – Take Zhejiang Province as an Example 乡村振兴视角下的数字乡村发展评价——以浙江省为例
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-4236.4022
Songyan Zhang, Simin Wu
The construction of the digital village is a combination of the concept of digital economy and the strategy of rural revitalization, which requires a correct understanding and scientific evaluation. Taking Zhejiang Province as the research object, based on the actual situation and the connotation of digital villages, a digital village indicator system was constructed from the two dimensions of digital village development capacity and development effectiveness, and the relative entropy TOPSIS method was used to analyze the digital villages in Zhejiang Province from 2016 to 2019. Compare and evaluate the development level. The results show that the development of digital villages in Zhejiang Province has achieved remarkable results, and the development level of digital villages has been improved year by year. Among them, the index scores of industry digitalization, governance digitalization, service digitalization, digital life, agricultural production, farmers’ prosperity, and rural prosperity have achieved stable or rapid growth. The close value of TOPSIS is increasing year by year. Finally, it puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of digital villages across the country.
数字村建设是数字经济理念与乡村振兴战略的结合,需要正确认识和科学评价。以浙江省为研究对象,基于数字村庄的实际情况和内涵,从数字村庄发展能力和发展有效性两个维度构建数字村庄指标体系,并采用相对熵TOPSIS方法对2016 - 2019年浙江省数字村庄进行分析。比较和评估发展水平。结果表明,浙江省数字村发展成效显著,数字村发展水平逐年提高。其中,产业数字化、治理数字化、服务数字化、数字生活、农业生产、农民富裕、农村富裕等指标得分均实现平稳或快速增长。TOPSIS的收盘价呈逐年上升趋势。最后,提出了促进全国数字乡村发展的对策建议。
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引用次数: 0
Development and Application of Rural Tourism Information Service System Based on SOA Technology Framework 基于SOA技术框架的乡村旅游信息服务系统开发与应用
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-4236.4035
Yan Ma, Jiang Du
Due to the development of the times and the rapid pace of life in the modern society, the living standards has become higher and higher, and various types of self-driving travel have begun to increase. However, at present, most rural areas do not have good infrastructures, tourist introduction platforms and tour guide services for tourism, and there is no effective guidance service for the rural complex traffic environment, so these problems restrict the development of rural tourism. In view of these problems, in this paper, the rural tourism information service system based on SOA technology framework was designed and developed to provide tourists with convenient services and to attract more tourists.
由于时代的发展和现代社会快节奏的生活,人们的生活水平越来越高,各种类型的自驾游开始增多。然而,目前大部分农村地区缺乏良好的旅游基础设施、旅游引介平台和导游服务,乡村复杂的交通环境也没有有效的导游服务,这些问题制约了乡村旅游的发展。针对这些问题,本文设计开发了基于SOA技术框架的乡村旅游信息服务系统,为游客提供便捷的服务,吸引更多的游客。
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引用次数: 0
Renewable Energy and Economic Efficiency in the Framework of Sustainable Development: Malmquist Index and Tobit Model 可持续发展框架下的可再生能源与经济效率:Malmquist指数与Tobit模型
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-4236.4024
Eda Bozkurt
Today, energy is as important as labour, capital and technology for the growth of countries. As countries grow economically, they try to achieve the same or more amounts of output with fewer inputs. In other words, countries target efficiency based growth. As the economic growth of countries increases, their energy requirements also increase. Regarding countries that are not rich in domestic resources, this increase, imposes significant costs. On the other hand, the finite energy supply in countries rich in domestic resources is an important problem. That is why the phenomenon of renewable energy has become a trend all over the world. In addition to reducing import dependence on energy, new policies are required to reduce the effects of climate changes and to protect natural resources. That is why; renewable energy and economic efficiency are an attractive research area. In the study, efficiency scores were obtained by calculating the Malmquist total factor productivity index in the period 1992–2018 for 10 countries among the N11 countries. Then, the efficiency values obtained by using the two stage estimation method were used as the dependent variables. The test results based on Tobit regression indicated that the increase in the supply of renewable energy positively increases economic efficiency. It can be said that the supply of renewable energy will lead to economic efficiency in the future.
如今,对于各国的增长而言,能源与劳动力、资本和技术一样重要。随着国家经济的增长,它们试图以更少的投入实现相同或更多的产出。换句话说,各国的目标是基于效率的增长。随着各国经济增长的增加,它们的能源需求也在增加。对于国内资源不丰富的国家来说,这种增加带来了巨大的代价。另一方面,国内资源丰富的国家能源供应有限是一个重要问题。这就是为什么可再生能源现象已经成为世界各地的一种趋势。除了减少对能源进口的依赖外,还需要制定新的政策来减少气候变化的影响和保护自然资源。这就是为什么;可再生能源和经济效率是一个有吸引力的研究领域。在研究中,通过计算N11个国家中10个国家1992-2018年的Malmquist全要素生产率指数,获得效率得分。然后,用两阶段估计法得到的效率值作为因变量。基于Tobit回归的测试结果表明,可再生能源供应的增加正提高了经济效率。可以说,可再生能源的供应将导致未来的经济效率。
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引用次数: 0
Passenger Transport Modal Mix by Incorporating Travel Behaviour: A Case Study of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal 结合出行行为的客运模式组合:以尼泊尔加德满都谷地为例
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-4236.4032
Anita Prajapati, Nawraj Bhattarai, Tri Ratna Bajracharya
Most of the travel demand in developing countries is fulfilled by private vehicles dominated by 2-wheelers due to their affordability, accessibility, and availability, which has direct effects on energy, economy, and environment. To achieve sustainable transport, policies such as electric mobility and mass transport options have been implemented which are mainly focused on technology shift based on technology cost and environmental externalities. Transport modelling in this study was carried out using an additional attribute: travel time which shows the impact of travel behaviour on the optimal modal mix and the consequent impact on energy and emissions. The scenario-based approach using the travel time budget (TTB) concept was used using a bottom-up TIMES modelling framework. The scenario analysis shows the trade-off between the speed of the vehicle, available travel time, and sustainability in transport. The result suggests that the investment in rapid transit would be the potential future mode in Kathmandu valley.
发展中国家的大部分旅行需求是由以两轮车为主的私人车辆来满足的,因为它们的可负担性、可达性和可用性,这对能源、经济和环境有直接的影响。为了实现可持续运输,已经实施了诸如电动交通和大众运输选择等政策,这些政策主要侧重于基于技术成本和环境外部性的技术转移。本研究中的交通建模使用了一个额外的属性:旅行时间,它显示了旅行行为对最优模式组合的影响以及由此对能源和排放的影响。基于场景的方法使用旅行时间预算(TTB)概念,使用自下而上的TIMES建模框架。情景分析显示了车辆速度、可用旅行时间和运输可持续性之间的权衡。结果表明,投资快速交通将是加德满都谷地未来潜在的交通方式。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Wireless Technology Selection Approach for Sustainable Indian Smart Grid 印度可持续智能电网的无线技术优化选择方法
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-4236.4033
Jignesh Bhatt, O. Jani, V. Harish
The smart grid is playing a game-changing role in achieving clean and green energy, infrastructure, and cities, which are all part of the sustainable development goals. The significance of communication infrastructure in the reliable design and operation of the smart grid is well recognized, notably for renewable integration, facilitating distributed energy resources and storage, demand response, and energy efficiency. Since choosing the optimal communication technology is a strategic decision, the problem needs careful investigation, taking into account realistic data traffic estimates to fulfill the communication needs of the applications envisaged. Even though a vast array of technologies with diverse capabilities is available to meet such communication needs, choosing the optimal wireless technology for a smart grid project remains a difficult challenge. In this context, to achieve and maximize the benefits of the smart grid and its applications, a systematic and efficient approach is necessary. This study proposes a data-driven decision-making approach for evaluating the capabilities of viable wireless technology options and selecting the most suitable option for the smart grid project at the design phase. The suggested approach and the decision-support tool were developed using a cost-function-based optimization technique. A case study of Siliguri city Indian smart grid pilot is discussed to validate the potential and aptness of the presented approach and suggest better technology alternatives as replacements. Being field data-driven, the presented optimization approach is simple, customizable, strategic, and re-usable with practical efficacy to assist decision-making.
智能电网在实现清洁和绿色能源、基础设施和城市方面发挥着改变游戏规则的作用,这些都是可持续发展目标的一部分。通信基础设施在智能电网可靠设计和运行中的重要性得到了广泛认可,尤其是在可再生能源整合、促进分布式能源资源和存储、需求响应和能源效率方面。由于选择最佳通信技术是一项战略决策,因此需要仔细研究该问题,同时考虑实际的数据流量估计,以满足所设想的应用程序的通信需求。尽管有大量具有不同功能的技术可用于满足此类通信需求,但为智能电网项目选择最佳无线技术仍然是一项艰巨的挑战。在这种情况下,为了实现并最大限度地发挥智能电网及其应用的效益,有必要采取系统有效的方法。本研究提出了一种数据驱动的决策方法,用于评估可行的无线技术选项的能力,并在设计阶段为智能电网项目选择最合适的选项。所提出的方法和决策支持工具是使用基于成本函数的优化技术开发的。讨论了西里古里市印度智能电网试点的案例研究,以验证所提出方法的潜力和适用性,并提出更好的技术替代方案。作为现场数据驱动的优化方法,所提出的优化方法简单、可定制、具有战略意义且可重复使用,具有辅助决策的实际功效。
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引用次数: 1
Research of Behavioral Context of Trends in Conscious Consumption of Fashion Industry Goods 时尚产业商品自觉消费趋势的行为脉络研究
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-5236.4142
Mashchak Nataliia Mykhaylivna, Dmytriv Anna Yaroslavivna, Y. Krykavskyy
The main purpose of the study conducted in the article is to study the nature of Ukrainian consumption of fashion industry goods for “consciousness” and to determine the present and prospect trends of development. To achieve this goal, the next tasks were set: to analyze literary sources to reveal the topic of conscious consumption; to study the general world trends of conscious consumption in the category of clothing – from the point of view regarding how does phenomenon of conscious consumption is disseminated, and regarding to dissemination of information about this fact; to conduct a qualitative survey of a representative sample of consumers for their behavior in the field of fashion industry products consumption; to draw conclusions about the state and prospects of conscious fashion in the domestic market. The study of literature sources and approaches to solving the problem of the detrimental impact of the fashion industry, in particular the fast fashion sector, showed the need to promote this problem and the insufficient awareness of Ukrainians in conscious consumption field. The urgency of solving this scientific problem is that the purchasing behavior and habits of Ukrainians in the field of goods of the fashion industry is somewhat different from the behavior of European consumers, which is due to the impact of the hard trade deficit during the Soviet Union times. To achieve the goals of the article, normative documents of both international level and internally adapted materials were processed. Empirical methods have been used to describe the general problems of the harmful impact of the fashion industry on the environment and approaches to its solution. The own marketing sociological survey about the conscious consumption of fashion industry goods by Ukrainians was conducted using digital tools. Theoretical research methods such as analysis, generalization, explanation and classification are used. The results of the study may be valuable for top managers of domestic and international fashion companies in restructuring their business strategy and marketing strategy to a more environmentally and socially oriented – respondents demonstrated a willingness to pay more for recycled clothing and willingness to properly dispose of clothing – and these are, in fact, specific recommendations for the development of new collections and ideas for new environmental programs and communication plans. Thus, the willingness of consumers to practice environmental approaches in consumer behavior confirms the need to promote this study among the public and stakeholders in order to raise awareness in the conscious consumption field.
本文进行研究的主要目的是研究乌克兰消费时尚产业商品的“意识”性质,并确定目前和未来的发展趋势。为了实现这一目标,我们确定了接下来的任务:分析文学来源,揭示意识消费的主题;从有意识消费现象如何传播的角度,以及关于这一事实的信息传播的角度,研究服装类别中有意识消费的总体世界趋势;对有代表性的消费者样本在时尚产业产品消费领域的行为进行定性调查;总结国内自觉时尚市场的现状及发展前景。对文献来源和解决时装业,特别是快时尚部门的有害影响问题的方法的研究表明,有必要促进这一问题,乌克兰人在有意识的消费领域认识不足。解决这一科学问题的紧迫性在于,乌克兰人在时尚产业商品领域的购买行为和习惯与欧洲消费者的行为有所不同,这是由于苏联时期硬贸易逆差的影响。为了实现该条的目标,处理了国际一级的规范性文件和国内改编的材料。经验方法已经被用来描述时尚产业对环境的有害影响的一般问题和解决方法。关于乌克兰人对时尚产业商品有意识消费的营销社会学调查是使用数字工具进行的。运用了分析、概括、解释、分类等理论研究方法。研究结果可能对国内外时装公司的高层管理人员在调整其商业战略和营销策略时更注重环境和社会导向——受访者表现出愿意为回收服装支付更多的钱,并愿意适当地处理衣服——有价值,事实上,这些是开发新系列的具体建议,以及为新的环境计划和传播计划提供想法。因此,消费者愿意在消费行为中实践环境方法,这证实了需要在公众和利益相关者中推广本研究,以提高意识消费领域的认识。
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引用次数: 0
Harmonic Analysis of Electric Transmission System of New Energy Vehicle 新能源汽车电力传动系统谐波分析
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-4236.4034
Xiaomin Xie, Renwei Dou, Yinping Yang, Jun Xie, Xuanfu Du
In order to improve the cruising range of new energy electric vehicles and solve the low efficiency of electric transmission system in low-speed driving stage, a space vector pulse width modulation algorithm is proposed. The simulation model is established by Matlab/Simulink software, and the test parameters of electric transmission system in the actual driving process of new energy electric vehicle are analyzed, and the harmonic distribution of line voltage of electric transmission system and the influence of battery bus voltage on harmonic content are explored. The actual test results show that reducing the difference between the bus voltage and the fundamental line voltage under actual electric transmission can reduce the harmonic content and improve the system efficiency. According to the characteristics of power generation system, a reliable motor optimization scheme is proposed to reduce harmonic content to improve the efficiency of electric transmission system of new energy vehicles.
为了提高新能源电动汽车的续航里程,解决低速行驶阶段电力传动系统效率低的问题,提出了一种空间矢量脉宽调制算法。利用Matlab/Simulink软件建立仿真模型,分析新能源电动汽车实际行驶过程中电力传动系统的试验参数,探讨电力传动系统线路电压的谐波分布以及电池母线电压对谐波含量的影响。实际测试结果表明,在实际电力传输情况下,减小母线电压与基线电压之差可以降低谐波含量,提高系统效率。根据发电系统的特点,提出了一种可靠的电机优化方案,以降低谐波含量,提高新能源汽车电力传动系统的效率。
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引用次数: 0
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Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment
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