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Tous les pays du monde (2007) 世界各国(2007年)
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2007-08-01 DOI: 10.3917/POPSOC.525.0001
G. Pison
Tous les deux ans, le numero d'ete de Population & Societes, intitule Tous les pays du monde, presente un tableau de la population mondiale. Les donnees proviennent essentiellement de la World Population Data Sheet publiee par le Population Reference Bureau (PRB)
每两年,《人口与社会》(Population & Societes)的数字,即世界上所有国家的数字,呈现出世界人口的表格。数据主要来自人口资料局(PRB)发布的世界人口数据表。
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引用次数: 7
[Aging and trends in marital status]. [老龄化和婚姻状况的趋势]。
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2003-04-01
Christiane Delbès, Joëlle Gaymu
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引用次数: 0
International migration trends. 国际移民趋势。
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2002-09-01 DOI: 10.18356/dd5d3187-en
G. Simon
There are thought to be nearly 150 million international migrants as we enter the 21st century if a migrant is taken to mean a person who resides outside of his or her country of birth or citizenship for one year or more. There were an estimated 75 million in 1965 105 million in 1985 and 120 million in 1990. But these estimates are open to question given the difficulty of observing and quantifying international migration (see box). In particular reliable information is lacking on flows—departures transits returns— leaving only that on stocks—the number of migrants resident on a given date in each country—to form an idea of migratory exchanges. Net migration flows to developed countries—arrivals less departures—are estimated to have averaged about 2.4 million people a year in the period 1990-2000 which is highly consistent with the figures for inflows to the main Northern host countries (2.7 million for OECD countries in 1998). Given that this is a net count i.e. combining long-term departures with returns of nationals and non-nationals it can be inferred that annual outflows i.e. emigration worldwide are significantly higher than the estimated 2.4 million particularly if the significant but hard to quantify South-South migration is added. The volume of international migration must not overshadow the fact that it involves only a tiny share of the world population (2.5% of the 6.1 billion people in 2001). The large majority are geographically stable and the picture of a world crisscrossed by vast never ending waves of migrants does not reflect the reality notwithstanding large-scale local and regional population moves chiefly as a result of conflicts political or environmental crises (drought in the Sahel in the 1970s Gulf War in 1991). (excerpt)
当我们进入21世纪时,如果移民是指在他或她的出生国或国籍国以外居住一年或更长时间的人,那么据认为有近1.5亿国际移民。1965年估计有7500万人,1985年为1.05亿人,1990年为1.2亿人。但是,考虑到观察和量化国际移民的困难,这些估计值得商榷。特别是缺乏关于流动-离开-过境-返回的可靠信息,只留下关于存量的信息,即在给定日期居住在每个国家的移民人数,从而形成移民交换的概念。据估计,在1990-2000年期间,流入发达国家的净移徙人数(入境人数减去离开人数)平均每年约为240万人,这与流入主要北方东道国的数字(1998年经合组织国家为270万人)高度一致。鉴于这是一个净数字,即将长期离开加上国民和非国民的返回结合起来,可以推断,每年的流出,即全世界的移民,大大高于估计的240万,特别是如果加上数量可观但难以量化的南南移徙。国际移民的数量不能掩盖这样一个事实,即它只涉及世界人口的一小部分(2001年61亿人口的2.5%)。大多数国家在地理上是稳定的,尽管大规模的地方和区域人口流动主要是由于冲突、政治危机或环境危机(1970年代萨赫勒地区的干旱),但世界被无休止的巨大移民浪潮交错的景象并不反映现实。(摘录)
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引用次数: 17
[Will AIDS spread to the entire population of Africa south of the Sahara?]. 艾滋病会蔓延到撒哈拉以南非洲的所有人口吗?
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2002-01-01
Gilles Pison
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引用次数: 0
[Statistical trends in pregnancies among adolescents in France during the past 20 years]. [过去20年法国青少年怀孕的统计趋势]。
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2000-10-01
H Kafé, N Brouard
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引用次数: 0
The demographic transitions 人口结构转变
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 1969-12-31 DOI: 10.1215/9780822373216-003
Lévy Ml
All demographic researchers agree on the meaning of demographic transition as the movement from a traditional regime of demographic equilibrium with high fertility and mortality rates to a modern regime with low fertility and mortality rates. During the period of transition the population undergoes considerable growth because the mortality decline precedes the fertility decline. The concept is clear but its relevance is not established: is it a theory a scheme or a model? A recent study of the demographic transition in 67 countries from 1720-1984 by Jean-Claude Chesnais concluded that no "theory" of demographic transition could predict the particular development of a specific country but that the concept of demographic transition is the only interpretive scheme for contemporary demographic change. The same general factors are believed to have caused fertility reduction in all countries where it has occurred including improved health conditions increased educational and income levels and improved status of women. 2 key variables in the process appear to be declining nuptiality and increased female education. The early 1980s saw a slowing of demographic growth in most of the less developed countries. Exceptions among countries with over 50 million inhabitants were Bangladesh Pakistan Vietnam and Nigeria. A common feature of demographic transitions is a mortality decline. All apparent exceptions such as France Germany and Belgium are being shown to follow the rule after all. A typology of transitions can be constructed according to the length of the period of most rapid population growth and according to the magnitude of this growth which may vary from less than 1% to over 3% per year. Chesnais in his work proposed a new concept the transitional multiplier of population. The intensity of the transition determines the final population size more than the duration. Transition multipliers have ranged from less than 2 in Ireland and about 2 in France to about 4 in Sweden 4 or 5 in India 7-10 in Mexico and 15 or more in Kenya. As a general rule the most recent transitions have tended to be short and intense. The author predicts a multiplication by 7 for the world as a whole between 1850-2050 which represents less than 1%/year on average. The multiplier would be 4 for the developed countries whose share of the total will decline from 25% to 14% and 8 for the less developed countries. Another factor differentiating national demographic 5 has been the simultaneous occurrence in some cases of migration. No decisive correlation between economic growth and demographic growth has ever been proven. Chesnais believes that the growth of food production has increased faster than the growth of population in less developed countries and that famines are increasingly the result of governmental errors rather than lack of food.
所有人口研究人员都同意人口转型的含义是从具有高生育率和死亡率的传统人口均衡制度向具有低生育率和死亡率的现代制度的运动。在过渡时期,人口经历了相当大的增长,因为死亡率下降先于生育率下降。这个概念很清楚,但它的相关性还没有确立:它是一个理论、一个方案还是一个模型?Jean-Claude Chesnais最近对1720-1984年67个国家的人口转变进行的一项研究得出结论,没有任何人口转变的“理论”可以预测一个特定国家的具体发展,但人口转变的概念是当代人口变化的唯一解释方案。据信,在所有发生生育率下降的国家,同样的一般因素造成了生育率下降,包括卫生条件的改善、教育和收入水平的提高以及妇女地位的提高。这一过程中的两个关键变量似乎是结婚率下降和女性受教育程度提高。1980年代初,大多数较不发达国家的人口增长速度减慢。在人口超过5000万的国家中,孟加拉国、巴基斯坦、越南和尼日利亚是例外。人口结构转变的一个共同特征是死亡率下降。所有明显的例外,如法国、德国和比利时,最终都被证明遵守了这一规则。可以根据人口最快速增长时期的长度和这种增长的幅度(可能从每年不到1%到超过3%不等)来构建过渡类型。切斯奈在其著作中提出了人口过渡乘数的新概念。过渡的强度比持续时间更能决定最终的种群规模。转型乘数的范围从爱尔兰的不到2、法国的约2、瑞典的约4、印度的4或5、墨西哥的7-10和肯尼亚的15或更多不等。一般来说,最近的转变往往是短暂而激烈的。作者预测,从1850年到2050年,全球人口将增长7倍,平均每年不到1%。发达国家的乘数为4,其占总量的份额将从25%下降到14%,欠发达国家的乘数为8。另一个区分国家人口的因素是在某些情况下同时发生移徙。经济增长和人口增长之间没有决定性的相关性。切斯奈认为,在欠发达国家,粮食产量的增长速度超过了人口的增长速度,饥荒越来越多地是政府失误而不是缺乏粮食造成的。
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引用次数: 17
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Population and Societies
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