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PARAMETERIZATIONS OF THE VON BERTALANFFY MODEL FOR DESCRIPTION OF GROWTH CURVES 描述生长曲线的von bertalanffy模型的参数化
Q4 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-09-29 DOI: 10.28951/RBB.V38I3.457
F. A. Fernandes, Édipo Menezes da Silva, Kelly Pereira de Lima, S. A. Jane, T. J. Fernandes, J. A. Muniz
The growth curves of animals, in general, have an “S” shape, also known as sigmoidal curves. This type of curve is well fitted by nonlinear regression models, including von Bertalanffy’s model, which has been widely applied in several areas, being presented in literature through different parameterizations, which in practice, can complicate its understanding, affect nonlinearity measures and inferences about parameters. To quantify the nonlinearity present in a Bates and Watts model, a geometric concept of curvature has been used. The aim of this work was to analytically develop three parameterizations of the von Bertalanffy’s nonlinear model referring to its nonlinearity, implications for inferences and to establish relationships between parameters in the different ways of expressing the models. These parameterizations were adjusted to the growth data of sheep. For each parameterization, the intrinsic and parametric curvature measurements described by Bates and Watts were calculated. The parameterization choice affects nonlinearity measures, consequently, influences the reliability and inferences about estimated parameters. The forms most used in literature showed the greatest deviations from linearity, showing the importance of analyzing these measures in any growth curve study. Parameterization should be used in which the b estimate represents the abscissa of the inflection point, as it presents minor linearity deviations and direct biological interpretation for all parameters. 1Universidade Federal de Lavras UFLA, Departamento de Estat́ıstica, Programa de PósGraduação em Estat́ıstica e Experimentação Agropecuária, Caixa Postal 3037, CEP: 37200900, Lavras, MG, Brasil. E-mails: fernandesfelipest@gmail.com; ediposvm01@gmail.com; kelly limaadm@hotmail.com; serztjane@gmail.com; tales.jfernandes@ufla.br; joamuniz@ufla.br. 2Universidade Lúrio UniLúrio, Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias, Departamento de produção e proteção vegetal, CEP: 1115-04, Unango Niassa, Moçambique E-mail: serztjane@gmail.com Rev. Bras. Biom., Lavras, v.38, n.3, p.369-384, 2020 doi: 10.28951/rbb.v38i3.457 369
动物的生长曲线一般呈S形,也称为S型曲线。非线性回归模型可以很好地拟合这类曲线,包括von Bertalanffy的模型,该模型已在多个领域得到广泛应用,在文献中通过不同的参数化提出,这在实践中会使其理解复杂化,影响非线性测量和参数推断。为了量化贝茨和沃茨模型中存在的非线性,使用了曲率的几何概念。这项工作的目的是分析地发展冯贝塔朗菲非线性模型的三种参数化,参考其非线性、推论的含义,并以不同的方式建立模型表达参数之间的关系。将这些参数化调整为绵羊的生长数据。对于每一个参数化,计算贝茨和瓦茨描述的内在曲率和参数曲率测量值。参数化的选择影响非线性测度,从而影响估计参数的可靠性和推断性。文献中最常用的形式显示出最大的线性偏差,表明在任何生长曲线研究中分析这些措施的重要性。当b估计代表拐点的横坐标时,应该使用参数化,因为它对所有参数表示较小的线性偏差和直接的生物学解释。1巴西拉夫拉斯联邦大学,州系ıstica,项目PósGraduação em Estat´ıstica e experimentapart o Agropecuária, Caixa邮政3037,CEP: 37200900,拉夫拉斯,MG,巴西。电子邮件:fernandesfelipest@gmail.com;ediposvm01@gmail.com;凯利limaadm@hotmail.com;serztjane@gmail.com;tales.jfernandes@ufla.br;joamuniz@ufla.br。2大学Lúrio UniLúrio, Ciências Agrárias学院,植物生产与保护与 学系,CEP: 1115-04, Unango Niassa, mo ambique, e -mail: serztjane@gmail.com Rev. Bras。Biom。[j] .中国科学院学报,2013,p.369-384, 2020 doi: 10.28951/rbb.v38i3.457 369
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引用次数: 6
FIRE BEHAVIOR PREDICTION USING MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS 使用机器学习算法进行火灾行为预测
Q4 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-09-29 DOI: 10.28951/RBB.V38I3.452
V. B. Rodrigues, Fillpe Tamiozzo Pereira Torres
§ ABSTRACT: Wildfires can affect ecosystem structure and threaten human lives. Understanding fire behavior and predicting fire activities is a crucial issue to mitigate fire impacts. Machine Learning is currently an important tool for the modeling, analysis, and visualization of environmental data and wildfire events. In this study, we assessed the performance of two machine learning algorithms for modeling and predicting fire intensity, the height of flames, and fire rate of spreading in Eucalyptus urophylla (Myrtaceae, Myrtales) and Eucalyptus grandis (Myrtaceae, Myrtales) plantations spatially located in Viçosa MG, Brazil. The Random Forest showed to be the best algorithm for fire modeling, with climatic conditions, and moisture of the combustible material being the variables that significantly affect the prediction of fire behavior.
摘要:野火影响生态系统结构,威胁人类生命安全。了解火灾行为和预测火灾活动是减轻火灾影响的关键问题。机器学习目前是环境数据和野火事件建模、分析和可视化的重要工具。在这项研究中,我们评估了两种机器学习算法在巴西viosa MG的尾桉(Myrtaceae, Myrtales)和大桉(Myrtaceae, Myrtales)人工林中模拟和预测火灾强度、火焰高度和火灾蔓延速度的性能。随机森林被证明是火灾建模的最佳算法,气候条件和可燃材料的湿度是显著影响火灾行为预测的变量。
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引用次数: 2
THREE SIMPLE HEURISTICS MATHEMATICAL PROOFS ON LASSO THEORY 套索理论的三个简单的启发式数学证明
Q4 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-06-29 DOI: 10.28951/rbb.v38i2.444
Carlos José dos Reis, Laerte Dias de Carvalho, L. Chaves, Devanil Jaques de Souza
Three relevant facts about the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) are studied: The estimatives follows piecewise linear curves in relation to tuning parameter, the number of nonzero selected covariates is an unbiased estimator of its degrees of freedom and when the number of covariates p is greater than the numbers of observations n at most n covariates are selected. These results are well known and described in the literature, but with no simple demonstrations. We present, based on a geometrical approach, simple and intuitive heuristics proofs for these results.
研究了最小绝对收缩和选择算子(Lasso)的三个相关事实:与调谐参数有关的估计遵循分段线性曲线,非零选择协变量的数量是其自由度的无偏估计量,当协变量的数量p大于观测值的数量n时,最多选择n个协变量。这些结果是众所周知的,并在文献中描述,但没有简单的证明。我们提出,基于几何方法,简单和直观的启发式证明这些结果。
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引用次数: 0
POSTERIOR DE POLYA NO MONITORAMENTO AMOSTRAL DE PESCARIAS
Q4 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-06-29 DOI: 10.28951/rbb.v38i2.441
Paul Gerhard Kinas, Jonata Cristian Wieczynski
A non-informative bayesian approach to sample-based fishery surveys is proposed. The Polya posterior for finite population parameters is used to obtain the inferences. The viability of a sampling plan was used in a pilot field experiment to collect weekly information about effort and catch from the artisanal fishery in Rio Grande, RS. Based on a simulated virtual population with four species and 345 fishermen, the sampling plan was tested using a sampling fraction of 3.3% from a complete data matrix of 2760 components. Results have shown accuracies above 71% for all but the most problematic species 2, and around 90% for estimates of total catch and cummulative effort. The percentile probability intervals (ICr) perform slightly better than the highest density interval (HDI) in terms of coverage; although both resulted about 5 percentage points bellow the nominal value of 95%.
提出了一种基于样本的渔业调查的非信息贝叶斯方法。使用有限总体参数的Polya后验来获得推论。抽样计划的可行性在一个试点现场实验中被用于收集RS里奥格兰德州手工渔业的每周努力量和捕获量信息。基于一个有4个物种和345名渔民的模拟虚拟种群,抽样计划从2760个组成部分的完整数据矩阵中使用3.3%的抽样分数进行测试。结果显示,除问题最严重的物种外,所有物种的准确率都在71%以上,对总捕获量和累计努力量的估计准确率在90%左右。在覆盖率方面,百分位概率区间(ICr)略优于最高密度区间(HDI);尽管两者的结果都比名义值95%低了约5个百分点。
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引用次数: 0
WAIST CIRCUMFERENCE CUT-OFF POINTS OR BODY MASS INDEX FOR PREDICTING FAT MASS IN COLLEGE STUDENTS 腰围分界点或体重指数预测大学生脂肪量
Q4 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-06-29 DOI: 10.28951/rbb.v38i2.435
Bayner Julián Ramírez-Calderón, C. González-Correa, C. Gonzalez-Correa
Obesity affects millions of people worldwide, becoming a public health problem with serious implications for human life quality. This is why low-cost prevention and diagnostic strategies that are accessible to the entire population are needed. Low-cost and easy-to-use strategies include the measurement of Body Mass Index (BMI) and measurement of waist circumference (WC). The objective was to determine whether the percentage of body fat in Colombian college students can be predicted through BMI or WC, establishing WC cutoff points. This was a descriptive cross-sectional study with a simple random sample. The study included 687 students aged 18-35 years old from both sexes. Anthropometric measures of weight, length, waist circumference at navel level and skin folds (bicipital, tricipital, subscapular and suprailiac) were obtained. The sensitivity and specificity of BMI and the waist circumference at navel level (WCN) were determined to predict the estimated percentage of body fat by measuring skin folds. The cutting points of the waist circumference for men and women were determined by drawing up a Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC). Greater sensitivity and specificity of WCN were found in comparison with BMI, to predict the percentage of body fat.
肥胖影响着全世界数以百万计的人,成为一个严重影响人类生活质量的公共卫生问题。这就是为什么需要所有人口都能获得的低成本预防和诊断战略。低成本和易于使用的策略包括测量身体质量指数(BMI)和测量腰围(WC)。目的是确定哥伦比亚大学生的体脂百分比是否可以通过BMI或WC来预测,建立WC的截断点。这是一个简单随机样本的描述性横断面研究。该研究包括687名年龄在18-35岁之间的男女学生。测量体重、长度、肚脐处腰围和皮肤褶皱(肱二头肌、肱三头肌、肩胛下和耻骨上)。测定BMI和肚脐腰围(WCN)的敏感性和特异性,通过测量皮肤皱褶来预测估计的体脂百分比。通过绘制受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)确定男性和女性的腰围切点。与BMI相比,WCN在预测体脂百分比方面具有更高的敏感性和特异性。
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引用次数: 0
GENERALIZED GROWTH CURVE MODEL FOR COVID-19 IN BRAZILIAN STATES 巴西各州COVID-19的广义增长曲线模型
Q4 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-06-29 DOI: 10.28951/rbb.v38i2.481
Magali Teresópolis Reis Amaral, K. S. Conceição, M. Andrade, C. Padovani
The present paper consists of using the Chapman-Richard generalized growth model to functionally relate the number of people infected by COVID-19 with the number of days The objective of this work is to estimate the instant that the number of infected people stops growing using the dataset of the accumulated amount of infected For this propose, one conducted a comparative study of the performances of three models of Richard in eight Brazilian States In the methodological context, the Gauss Newton procedure was used to estimate the parameters In addition, selection criteria of the models were used to select the one that best fits the dataset The methodology used allowed consistent estimates of the number of people infected by COVID-19 as a function of time and, consequently, it was possible to conclude that the projections provided by the growth curves point to a scenario of general contamination acceleration Besides, the models predict that the epidemic is close to reaching its peak in Amazonas, Ceara, Maranhao, Pernambuco, and Sao Paulo States © 2020, Universidade Federal de Lavras -Departamento de Estatistica All rights reserved
本论文使用Chapman-Richard广义增长模型将感染COVID-19的人数与天数在功能上联系起来。本工作的目标是使用累积感染数量的数据集估计感染人数停止增长的时刻。为了提出这一建议,在方法学背景下,对Richard的三种模型在巴西八个州的表现进行了比较研究。此外,使用高斯牛顿程序来估计参数,并使用模型的选择标准来选择最适合数据集的模型。所使用的方法允许将COVID-19感染人数作为时间函数进行一致的估计,因此,可以得出结论,由增长曲线提供的预测指向一般污染加速的情况。模型预测,该流行病在亚马逊州、塞拉亚州、马拉尼昂州、伯南布哥州和圣保罗州接近达到顶峰©2020,拉夫拉斯联邦大学-统计部门版权所有
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引用次数: 1
MÉTODOS DE CLASSIFICAÇÃO AUTOMÁTICA PARA PREDIÇÃO DO PERFIL CLÍNICO DE PACIENTES PORTADORES DO DIABETES MELLITUS 预测糖尿病患者临床状况的自动分类方法
Q4 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-06-29 DOI: 10.28951/rbb.v38i2.445
G. Bressan, Beatriz Cristina Flamia de Azevedo, Roberto Molina de Souza
The goal of this paper is to study the relationships between the main attributes that influence the diagnosis and control of Diabetes Mellitus Type 2 and to generate an automatic classification tool that allows inferring about the glycemic index and which can be used as a medical aid in order to the patient with diabetes can be directed to the appropriate treatment. The methods proposed for this task are based on Bayesian Classification method, which uses the BayesRule algorithm and is able to investigate probabilistic uncertainties in the data, and on the classification method using Decision Trees, which is a classification tool widely used in data mining due to easy interpretation of the results. Both methodologies extract linguistic classification rules, which allows the comparison of their performances. According to the cross-validation process, the Bayesian classification method with the BayesRule algorithm presents 65% accuracy in the classification task for the intervention group and 47.5% for the control group. The Pruning Decision Trees present 73.68% accuracy for the intervention group and 69.23% for the control group. Then the results obtained in this study are satisfactory, and may contribute to the control and prediction of the development of patients with Diabetes Mellitus Type 2.
本文的目的是研究影响2型糖尿病诊断和控制的主要属性之间的关系,并生成一个自动分类工具,可以推断血糖指数,并可以用作医疗辅助,以便糖尿病患者可以直接进行适当的治疗。针对该任务提出的方法基于贝叶斯分类方法和决策树分类方法,前者使用BayesRule算法,能够调查数据中的概率不确定性,而决策树是一种分类工具,由于易于解释结果而在数据挖掘中广泛使用。两种方法都提取了语言分类规则,从而可以比较它们的性能。根据交叉验证过程,采用BayesRule算法的贝叶斯分类方法对干预组的分类任务准确率为65%,对对照组的分类任务准确率为47.5%。修剪决策树在干预组的准确率为73.68%,在对照组的准确率为69.23%。本研究结果令人满意,可能有助于控制和预测2型糖尿病患者的发展。
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引用次数: 1
COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION: A NEW APPROACH FOR THE STUDY IN MAIZE EXPERIMENTS 变异系数:玉米试验研究的新方法
Q4 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-06-29 DOI: 10.28951/rbb.v38i2.440
M. Nardino, J. M. Pereira, Vinícius Torres Marques, Fabiano Costa D'avila, Francisco Dias Franco, W. S. Barros
§ ABSTRACT: The magnitude of the variation coefficient (CV) is insufficient to validate the quality of the experiment, regardless of the number of treatments, repetitions and effect of treatments. The objective was to develop a new approach to the study of coefficient of variation, as well as evaluations of these nuances with applicability in new scientific research. The study was conducted via computer simulation. The replicates (r) ranged from 2, 3, 4, 5, 10 to 20. The treatment number (t) ranged from t 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30. In each of these combined scenarios we have the variation of 25 different CVs, ranging from 1, 3, 5, 7, ..., 49 to 51 %. It was imposed the variation of 11 treatment effects 0, 240, 480, 720, ..., 2000, 2400 kg ha-1, totaling 9,900.00 scenarios. The type I error is statistically invariant in the scenarios studied. With high treatment effect the CV has no implications on the power of the test (1-β). The results obtained in this research reveal that experiments with a high percentage of CV are sufficient to obtain high probabilities of the power of the F test, which do not compromise the complementary analyzes.
§摘要:无论处理次数、重复次数和处理效果如何,变异系数(CV)的大小都不足以验证实验的质量。目的是开发一种新的方法来研究变异系数,以及评估这些细微差别,并在新的科学研究中适用。这项研究是通过计算机模拟进行的。重复数(r)为2、3、4、5、10 ~ 20。处理次数(t)为5、10、15、20、25、30次。在这些组合的场景中,我们有25种不同的cv,范围从1、3、5、7……49%至51%。施加了11种处理效应0、240、480、720、…, 2000, 2400公斤ha-1,共计9,900.00个场景。在所研究的场景中,第一类误差在统计上是不变的。在治疗效果高的情况下,CV对试验的功效没有影响(1-β)。本研究获得的结果表明,具有高CV百分比的实验足以获得F检验功率的高概率,这不会损害互补分析。
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引用次数: 2
EPIDEMIC INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODELS APPLIED IN RANDOM AND SCALE-FREE NETWORKS 流行病个体模型在随机无标度网络中的应用
Q4 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-03-29 DOI: 10.28951/rbb.v38i1.421
Christofer Roque Ribeiro Silva, A. Almeida, R. N. Cardoso, R. Takahashi
This work proposes a version of the Individual-Based Model (IBM) that converges, on average, to the result of the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model, and studies the effect of this IBM in two types of networks: random and scale-free. A numerical computational case study is considered, using large scale networks implemented by an efficient framework. Statistical tests are performed to show the similarities and differences between the network models and the deterministic model taken as a baseline. Simulation results verify that different network topologies alter the behavior of the epidemic propagation in the following aspects: temporal evolution, basal reproducibility and the number of infected in the final.
这项工作提出了一个基于个人的模型(IBM)的版本,该模型平均收敛于SIR(易感-感染-恢复)模型的结果,并研究了这种IBM在两种类型的网络中的影响:随机网络和无标度网络。考虑了一个数值计算案例研究,使用由高效框架实现的大规模网络。进行统计测试,以显示网络模型和确定性模型作为基线之间的异同。仿真结果验证了不同的网络拓扑结构在时间演化、基础重现性和最终感染人数等方面改变了流行病的传播行为。
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引用次数: 1
AN APPLICATION OF HOTELLING’S T2 TEST FOR THE COMPARISON OF THE VISUAL-ACOUSTIC METHOD IN THE IDENTIFICATION OF INGESTIVE CATTLE BEHAVIOR 用霍特林t2检验比较视声法识别牛的摄食行为
Q4 Medicine Pub Date : 2020-03-29 DOI: 10.28951/rbb.v38i1.431
V. Vigas, D. Volpi, F. V. Alves, G. O. Silva, E. Saraiva
The bioacoustic method is an important tool for the identification of the ingestive behavior of ruminants, especially in extensive production systems. This is mainly due to its potential to solve the deficiencies presented by the usual method, which is based on the visual observation of the animals. In this article, we present a study whose main objective is to evaluate the accuracy of the bioacoustic method over the visual method to record the macroactivity of grazing cattle ingestive behavior. The comparison of the methods is made in terms of a multivariate statistical approach based on the use of Hotelling’s T 2 test. To verify the test performance in comparing the methods, we developed a simulation study using a resampling approach. The results show that the bioacoustic method can be an effective alternative to the visual method, with the advantage of being a noninvasive method that also allows the analysis of the micro events of ingestive behavior.
生物声学方法是识别反刍动物摄食行为的重要工具,特别是在粗放生产系统中。这主要是因为它有可能解决基于动物视觉观察的常规方法所存在的缺陷。在本文中,我们提出了一项研究,其主要目的是评估生物声学方法比视觉方法记录放牧牛摄食行为的宏观活动的准确性。采用基于Hotelling’s T检验的多元统计方法对两种方法进行比较。为了验证比较方法的测试性能,我们使用重采样方法进行了模拟研究。结果表明,生物声学方法可以作为视觉方法的有效替代方法,具有非侵入性的优点,也可以分析摄食行为的微观事件。
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引用次数: 1
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Revista Brasileira de Biometria
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