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Time of emergence (TOE) of potential aridification in the western United States
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133029
Jihun Ryu , Shih-Yu Wang , Jee-Hoon Jeong , Hyungjun Kim , Jin-Ho Yoon
Quantifying the timing of hydroclimatic changes due to global warming is crucial for water resources management. This study investigates the hydroclimatic changes based on the Time of Emergence (TOE) analysis in the western United States, with a focus on the impacts of climate change and aridification. Utilizing the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE), we investigate projected changes in temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, snow, and Total Water Storage (TWS). Despite precipitation increases in the future, our results project a robust decrease in TWS by the end of the 21st century, mainly driven by higher evapotranspiration and reduced snow. Total Water Storage, which is an integrated measure of all terrestrial hydrological processes, exhibits a more pronounced climate change signal compared to precipitation. Significant regional variations also emerge in the TOE of TWS, with states around the interior and high-elevation regions experiencing changes faster, as early as in the 2030 s, than those on the Pacific Coast or in southern regions. The study highlights the Upper Colorado River Basin as an emerging aridification hotspot, emphasizing the need for targeted research and adaptive water resource management strategies. This research underscores the importance of jointly considering TWS and the aridity index to comprehensively assess hydrologic regime shifts under global warming.

Plain Language Summary

Climate change is leading to shifts in temperature, rainfall, evapotranspiration, river flow, snow, and other factors. These changes collectively affect what we call the ’hydroclimate,’ which includes changes in groundwater and aridity. Our study finds that as climate change progresses, there will be a noticeable decrease in groundwater, particularly in the interior states. Additionally, we observe an expansion of dry areas, especially in the Upper Colorado River Basin due to reduced snow. This information is crucial for policymakers who need to plan and prepare for future water resource management in the face of a warming climate.
{"title":"Time of emergence (TOE) of potential aridification in the western United States","authors":"Jihun Ryu ,&nbsp;Shih-Yu Wang ,&nbsp;Jee-Hoon Jeong ,&nbsp;Hyungjun Kim ,&nbsp;Jin-Ho Yoon","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Quantifying the timing of hydroclimatic changes due to global warming is crucial for water resources management. This study investigates the hydroclimatic changes based on the Time of Emergence (TOE) analysis in the western United States, with a focus on the impacts of climate change and aridification. Utilizing the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE), we investigate projected changes in temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, snow, and Total Water Storage (TWS). Despite precipitation increases in the future, our results project a robust decrease in TWS by the end of the 21st century, mainly driven by higher evapotranspiration and reduced snow. Total Water Storage, which is an integrated measure of all terrestrial hydrological processes, exhibits a more pronounced climate change signal compared to precipitation. Significant regional variations also emerge in the TOE of TWS, with states around the interior and high-elevation regions experiencing changes faster, as early as in the 2030 s, than those on the Pacific Coast or in southern regions. The study highlights the Upper Colorado River Basin as an emerging aridification hotspot, emphasizing the need for targeted research and adaptive water resource management strategies. This research underscores the importance of jointly considering TWS and the aridity index to comprehensively assess hydrologic regime shifts under global warming.</div></div><div><h3>Plain Language Summary</h3><div>Climate change is leading to shifts in temperature, rainfall, evapotranspiration, river flow, snow, and other factors. These changes collectively affect what we call the ’hydroclimate,’ which includes changes in groundwater and aridity. Our study finds that as climate change progresses, there will be a noticeable decrease in groundwater, particularly in the interior states. Additionally, we observe an expansion of dry areas, especially in the Upper Colorado River Basin due to reduced snow. This information is crucial for policymakers who need to plan and prepare for future water resource management in the face of a warming climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 133029"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143579659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multi-step regional rainfall-runoff modeling using pyramidal transformer
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132935
Hanlin Yin , Xu Zhao , Xiuwei Zhang , Yanning Zhang
Rainfall-runoff modeling is the key to water resources management and thus is an important task in hydrology. Compared with individual rainfall-runoff modeling, regional rainfall-runoff modeling is more difficult, especially for the traditional models. With the fast development of the deep-learning based data-driven models (e.g, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based ones and the Transformer-based ones), such a task has a certain amount of progress. In this paper, we focus on multi-step regional rainfall-runoff modeling and propose a novel pyramidal Transformer (PT) rainfall-runoff model, which can explore information from different time resolutions with a pyramidal attention architecture considering dynamic and static attributes. Its structure is more advanced than the original Transformer-based model RR-Former, which is shown by testing the performance in 448 basins of the Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies in the United States (CAMELS-US) dataset. Besides, we show that the catchment static attributes and historical runoff observations are important for regional rainfall-runoff modeling. Moreover, we pointed out that the mean-absolute-error (MAE) is a better choice than the mean-square-error (MSE) as a loss function for such a task.
{"title":"Multi-step regional rainfall-runoff modeling using pyramidal transformer","authors":"Hanlin Yin ,&nbsp;Xu Zhao ,&nbsp;Xiuwei Zhang ,&nbsp;Yanning Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132935","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132935","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rainfall-runoff modeling is the key to water resources management and thus is an important task in hydrology. Compared with individual rainfall-runoff modeling, regional rainfall-runoff modeling is more difficult, especially for the traditional models. With the fast development of the deep-learning based data-driven models (e.g, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based ones and the Transformer-based ones), such a task has a certain amount of progress. In this paper, we focus on multi-step regional rainfall-runoff modeling and propose a novel pyramidal Transformer (PT) rainfall-runoff model, which can explore information from different time resolutions with a pyramidal attention architecture considering dynamic and static attributes. Its structure is more advanced than the original Transformer-based model RR-Former, which is shown by testing the performance in 448 basins of the Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies in the United States (CAMELS-US) dataset. Besides, we show that the catchment static attributes and historical runoff observations are important for regional rainfall-runoff modeling. Moreover, we pointed out that the mean-absolute-error (MAE) is a better choice than the mean-square-error (MSE) as a loss function for such a task.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 132935"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143610871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nonlinear propagation of meteorological to hydrological drought: Contrasting dynamics in humid and semi-arid regions
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133012
Yunyun Li , Qian Deng , Jianxia Chang , Yi Huang , Hongxue Zhang , Jingjing Fan , Hongshi Wu
This study conducts a novel comparative analysis of the nonlinear propagation characteristics of meteorological drought to hydrological drought across humid and semi-arid regions, emphasizing the dominant driving factors behind these variations. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) were applied to characterize meteorological and hydrological droughts over a 60-year period (1961–2020). The Directed Information Transfer Index (DITI) was employed to estimate Nonlinear Drought Propagation Time (NDPT), while drought translation rates were calculated by matching drought events to evaluate the sensitivity and resistance of hydrological drought to meteorological drought. Additionally, a drought propagation threshold model was developed to establish meteorological drought thresholds that trigger varying levels of hydrological drought. Two representative basins in China were selected as case studies: the Jialing River Basin (JRB) in a humid region (Aridity Index, AI = 1.33) and the Wei River Basin (WRB) in a semi-arid region (AI = 0.43). The results reveal distinct regional differences in nonlinear drought propagation: (1) In the JRB, 130 meteorological droughts resulted in 70 hydrological droughts, with an average NDPT of 8 months, whereas the WRB recorded 145 meteorological droughts and 95 hydrological droughts, with an average NDPT of 9 months. (2) Humid regions exhibited greater resistance and lower sensitivity to drought propagation compared to semi-arid regions, primarily due to differences in runoff volumes and rainfall variability. (3) Key driving factors differed significantly between the regions: temperature was the primary driver in humid regions, while land-use change and precipitation variability dominated in semi-arid regions. These findings provide valuable insights into the contrasting dynamics of drought propagation in diverse climatic regions, offering critical implications for developing region-specific drought mitigation strategies.
{"title":"Nonlinear propagation of meteorological to hydrological drought: Contrasting dynamics in humid and semi-arid regions","authors":"Yunyun Li ,&nbsp;Qian Deng ,&nbsp;Jianxia Chang ,&nbsp;Yi Huang ,&nbsp;Hongxue Zhang ,&nbsp;Jingjing Fan ,&nbsp;Hongshi Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study conducts a novel comparative analysis of the nonlinear propagation characteristics of meteorological drought to hydrological drought across humid and semi-arid regions, emphasizing the dominant driving factors behind these variations. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) were applied to characterize meteorological and hydrological droughts over a 60-year period (1961–2020). The Directed Information Transfer Index (DITI) was employed to estimate Nonlinear Drought Propagation Time (NDPT), while drought translation rates were calculated by matching drought events to evaluate the sensitivity and resistance of hydrological drought to meteorological drought. Additionally, a drought propagation threshold model was developed to establish meteorological drought thresholds that trigger varying levels of hydrological drought. Two representative basins in China were selected as case studies: the Jialing River Basin (JRB) in a humid region (Aridity Index, AI = 1.33) and the Wei River Basin (WRB) in a semi-arid region (AI = 0.43). The results reveal distinct regional differences in nonlinear drought propagation: (1) In the JRB, 130 meteorological droughts resulted in 70 hydrological droughts, with an average NDPT of 8 months, whereas the WRB recorded 145 meteorological droughts and 95 hydrological droughts, with an average NDPT of 9 months. (2) Humid regions exhibited greater resistance and lower sensitivity to drought propagation compared to semi-arid regions, primarily due to differences in runoff volumes and rainfall variability. (3) Key driving factors differed significantly between the regions: temperature was the primary driver in humid regions, while land-use change and precipitation variability dominated in semi-arid regions. These findings provide valuable insights into the contrasting dynamics of drought propagation in diverse climatic regions, offering critical implications for developing region-specific drought mitigation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133012"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143628936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Propagation characteristics of meteorological drought to hydrological drought in China
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133023
Ding Luo , Xiaoli Yang , Lingfeng Xie , Zhoubing Ye , Liliang Ren , Linyan Zhang , Fan Wu , Donglai Jiao
In the study of drought propagation, understanding the relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought is crucial for assessing the formation and evolution of drought. The traditional Pearson correlation coefficient mainly reflects the statistical correlation between variables, but this correlation may not necessarily reveal potential causal mechanisms. In contrast, convergent cross mapping (CCM) can better elucidate the dynamic mechanisms of drought propagation by capturing causal relationships between variables. This study reveals key insights into the dynamics of drought propagation by combining causal inference and watershed-specific assessments. The main findings include: (1) Over the past 58 years, meteorological and hydrological droughts have occurred frequently in China. Hydrological droughts are more severe in the northern regions, with their duration approximately three times longer than that of meteorological droughts. Additionally, 27.34 % of the grids show a significant increase in meteorological drought, while 14.59 % show a similar trend in hydrological drought. (2) Meteorological drought is the primary driver of hydrological drought, and a significant unidirectional causal relationship exists between them. Specifically, 99.06 % of the grids across the country show a significant correlation, while 86.84 % display convergent causality. Moreover, CCM can identify nonlinear dynamics, thereby providing a more comprehensive explanation than linear correlation alone. In regions like the Pearl River Basin and Southeast River Basin, causality is stronger than correlation, suggesting that correlation could serve as a substitute for causality when exploring drought propagation time. (3) Compared to correlation analysis, causal analysis yields higher propagation rates and provides more reliable evaluations by reducing uncertainty. In addition, the northern basins are more susceptible to the impact of meteorological drought. These results provide valuable guidance for optimizing water resource management, enhancing drought early warning systems, and reinforcing water infrastructure in environmentally vulnerable basins.
{"title":"Propagation characteristics of meteorological drought to hydrological drought in China","authors":"Ding Luo ,&nbsp;Xiaoli Yang ,&nbsp;Lingfeng Xie ,&nbsp;Zhoubing Ye ,&nbsp;Liliang Ren ,&nbsp;Linyan Zhang ,&nbsp;Fan Wu ,&nbsp;Donglai Jiao","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133023","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133023","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the study of drought propagation, understanding the relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought is crucial for assessing the formation and evolution of drought. The traditional Pearson correlation coefficient mainly reflects the statistical correlation between variables, but this correlation may not necessarily reveal potential causal mechanisms. In contrast, convergent cross mapping (CCM) can better elucidate the dynamic mechanisms of drought propagation by capturing causal relationships between variables. This study reveals key insights into the dynamics of drought propagation by combining causal inference and watershed-specific assessments. The main findings include: (1) Over the past 58 years, meteorological and hydrological droughts have occurred frequently in China. Hydrological droughts are more severe in the northern regions, with their duration approximately three times longer than that of meteorological droughts. Additionally, 27.34 % of the grids show a significant increase in meteorological drought, while 14.59 % show a similar trend in hydrological drought. (2) Meteorological drought is the primary driver of hydrological drought, and a significant unidirectional causal relationship exists between them. Specifically, 99.06 % of the grids across the country show a significant correlation, while 86.84 % display convergent causality. Moreover, CCM can identify nonlinear dynamics, thereby providing a more comprehensive explanation than linear correlation alone. In regions like the Pearl River Basin and Southeast River Basin, causality is stronger than correlation, suggesting that correlation could serve as a substitute for causality when exploring drought propagation time. (3) Compared to correlation analysis, causal analysis yields higher propagation rates and provides more reliable evaluations by reducing uncertainty. In addition, the northern basins are more susceptible to the impact of meteorological drought. These results provide valuable guidance for optimizing water resource management, enhancing drought early warning systems, and reinforcing water infrastructure in environmentally vulnerable basins.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 133023"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143610877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding the inter-event variability of recession flow characteristics and its drivers
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133033
Owees Rashid, Tushar Apurv
The characteristics of recession flows are known to show significant inter-event variability which reflects dynamic changes in baseflow generation mechanisms. The objective of this study is to quantify the variability of recession characteristics in watersheds and to understand its underlying physical drivers. We use a parallel decay model to estimate the number and residence times of watershed storage components contributing to baseflow in each recession event using inverse Laplace transform of recession flows. The proposed method allows for interpretation of both spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of baseflow generating processes in watersheds. We apply the methodology to streamflow data from 579 catchments in the contiguous United States (CONUS) and analyse the spatial patterns of inter-event variability of recession characteristics. The physical drivers of inter-event variability of recession characteristics are then analysed using random forest models. We find significant variability of recession flow characteristics in all watersheds of CONUS, with higher variability in the watersheds of eastern US and west coast of US, in which residence times have a standard deviation of 35–40 days. On the other hand, comparatively lower variability in recession characteristics is found in central and southwest US, with residence times having standard deviation of 24–30 days. We find that watershed area has the strongest control over inter-event variability of recession flow characteristics with higher variability observed in larger watersheds. Watersheds with winter dominated precipitation regime are found to show higher variability in the number of contributing storages whereas forested watersheds show higher variability in residence times.
{"title":"Understanding the inter-event variability of recession flow characteristics and its drivers","authors":"Owees Rashid,&nbsp;Tushar Apurv","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133033","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133033","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The characteristics of recession flows are known to show significant inter-event variability which reflects dynamic changes in baseflow generation mechanisms. The objective of this study is to quantify the variability of recession characteristics in watersheds and to understand its underlying physical drivers. We use a parallel decay model to estimate the number and residence times of watershed storage components contributing to baseflow in each recession event using inverse Laplace transform of recession flows. The proposed method allows for interpretation of both spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of baseflow generating processes in watersheds. We apply the methodology to streamflow data from 579 catchments in the contiguous United States (CONUS) and analyse the spatial patterns of inter-event variability of recession characteristics. The physical drivers of inter-event variability of recession characteristics are then analysed using random forest models. We find significant variability of recession flow characteristics in all watersheds of CONUS, with higher variability in the watersheds of eastern US and west coast of US, in which residence times have a standard deviation of 35–40 days. On the other hand, comparatively lower variability in recession characteristics is found in central and southwest US, with residence times having standard deviation of 24–30 days. We find that watershed area has the strongest control over inter-event variability of recession flow characteristics with higher variability observed in larger watersheds. Watersheds with winter dominated precipitation regime are found to show higher variability in the number of contributing storages whereas forested watersheds show higher variability in residence times.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 133033"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143601829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Study on microstructure and permeability of a red clay area subjected to dry-wet cycles using X-ray micro computed tomography and AVIZO
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133027
Zhihong Zhang, Ziyi Su, Zhaoyang Song
Global warming has significantly intensified the severity and frequency of dry-wet (DW) cycles, particularly in fragile ecological regions such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, profoundly impacting soil structure and permeability. However, the report on the micro-scale pore structure and permeability of red clay in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rare. In response, this study employs an innovative experimental technique to replicate the DW cycle of soil, combining with the micro-CT technology and permeability simulations, to evaluate the impact of DW cycles on the microstructure and permeability of red clay. The findings reveal that following a rising count of DW cycles, connected pore volume within the soil sample rapidly expands, while isolated pore volume initially decreases and then remains constant, highlighting the alterations in pore structure during the DW cycles. Following a rising count of DW cycles, connected porosity rises from 4.86 % to 16.06 %. This suggests that the increase in DW cycles results in the collapse of small pores and their merging into large pores. Permeability increases from 19.72 × 10−6 D to 250.76 × 10−6 D, exhibiting a trend of rapid growth followed by slow growth. Both the quantity and distribution density of visible flow lines progressively increase as the DW cycle number increases.
{"title":"Study on microstructure and permeability of a red clay area subjected to dry-wet cycles using X-ray micro computed tomography and AVIZO","authors":"Zhihong Zhang,&nbsp;Ziyi Su,&nbsp;Zhaoyang Song","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming has significantly intensified the severity and frequency of dry-wet (DW) cycles, particularly in fragile ecological regions such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, profoundly impacting soil structure and permeability. However, the report on the micro-scale pore structure and permeability of red clay in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rare. In response, this study employs an innovative experimental technique to replicate the DW cycle of soil, combining with the micro-CT technology and permeability simulations, to evaluate the impact of DW cycles on the microstructure and permeability of red clay. The findings reveal that following a rising count of DW cycles, connected pore volume within the soil sample rapidly expands, while isolated pore volume initially decreases and then remains constant, highlighting the alterations in pore structure during the DW cycles. Following a rising count of DW cycles, connected porosity rises from 4.86 % to 16.06 %. This suggests that the increase in DW cycles results in the collapse of small pores and their merging into large pores. Permeability increases from 19.72 × 10<sup>−6</sup> D to 250.76 × 10<sup>−6</sup> D, exhibiting a trend of rapid growth followed by slow growth. Both the quantity and distribution density of visible flow lines progressively increase as the DW cycle number increases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 133027"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143580391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improved non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm III for efficient of multi-objective cascade reservoirs scheduling under different hydrological conditions
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132998
Zhaocai Wang , Haifeng Zhao , Qin Lu , Tunhua Wu
Reservoir scheduling is becoming increasingly critical in natural, cultural, and ecological contexts. Nevertheless, with the proliferation of interests and constraints, the complexity of scheduling problems rises, and the scope of scheduling expands significantly. To tackle multi-objective and multi-constraint reservoir scheduling problems, practical and highly efficient optimization methods are urgently warranted to offer scientific and rational management solutions. To address these challenges, a long-term multi-objective model is hereby established, focusing on power generation (production of electrical energy through hydropower stations), output (the minimum generating capacity or output that the reservoir can provide during operation), and flow (the lowest stream flow within the reservoir and through the turbine). An improved non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅲ (INSGA-Ⅲ) is proposed to determine the optimal scheduling scheme for a cascade reservoir group. INSGA-Ⅲ employs a more comprehensive initialization of the population using the Pareto set, adopts elite crossover to ensure the ability to converge to the optimal solution later, and incorporates Lévy flights to explore a wider range in the early stages. Performance testing is conducted using a set of benchmark functions, and its efficient performance on various benchmark functions is verified through the IGD indicator and runtime. This study examines a cascade reservoir group of the Jinsha River. Firstly, the analysis of the Pareto front, distribution, and averages confirms the reliability and efficacy of INSGA-Ⅲ in solving reservoir problems. Subsequently, incorporating both subjective and objective data, the rank-sum ratio method is employed to select optimal solutions from the INSGA-III Pareto front across different scenarios. Following that, the power generation situation of each hydropower station and the trend of reservoir water level changes are analysed. The case study of the Jinsha River cascade reservoirs demonstrates that this model achieves a balance between power generation and hydropower station stability while also safeguarding downstream ecological integrity. Compared to other algorithms, INSGA-III demonstrates superior stability and performance. The model established in this study integrates multiple demands, and the proposed method effectively addresses these complexities, offering a valuable reference for regional scheduling.
{"title":"Improved non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm III for efficient of multi-objective cascade reservoirs scheduling under different hydrological conditions","authors":"Zhaocai Wang ,&nbsp;Haifeng Zhao ,&nbsp;Qin Lu ,&nbsp;Tunhua Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132998","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132998","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reservoir scheduling is becoming increasingly critical in natural, cultural, and ecological contexts. Nevertheless, with the proliferation of interests and constraints, the complexity of scheduling problems rises, and the scope of scheduling expands significantly. To tackle multi-objective and multi-constraint reservoir scheduling problems, practical and highly efficient optimization methods are urgently warranted to offer scientific and rational management solutions. To address these challenges, a long-term multi-objective model is hereby established, focusing on power generation (production of electrical energy through hydropower stations), output (the minimum generating capacity or output that the reservoir can provide during operation), and flow (the lowest stream flow within the reservoir and through the turbine). An improved non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅲ (INSGA-Ⅲ) is proposed to determine the optimal scheduling scheme for a cascade reservoir group. INSGA-Ⅲ employs a more comprehensive initialization of the population using the Pareto set, adopts elite crossover to ensure the ability to converge to the optimal solution later, and incorporates Lévy flights to explore a wider range in the early stages. Performance testing is conducted using a set of benchmark functions, and its efficient performance on various benchmark functions is verified through the IGD indicator and runtime. This study examines a cascade reservoir group of the Jinsha River. Firstly, the analysis of the Pareto front, distribution, and averages confirms the reliability and efficacy of INSGA-Ⅲ in solving reservoir problems. Subsequently, incorporating both subjective and objective data, the rank-sum ratio method is employed to select optimal solutions from the INSGA-III Pareto front across different scenarios. Following that, the power generation situation of each hydropower station and the trend of reservoir water level changes are analysed. The case study of the Jinsha River cascade reservoirs demonstrates that this model achieves a balance between power generation and hydropower station stability while also safeguarding downstream ecological integrity. Compared to other algorithms, INSGA-III demonstrates superior stability and performance. The model established in this study integrates multiple demands, and the proposed method effectively addresses these complexities, offering a valuable reference for regional scheduling.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 132998"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143580684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modified Crossing Empirical Trend Analysis (MCETA) for meteorological time series
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133003
Fereshteh Modaresi , Ebrahim Asadi Oskouei , Zohreh Janvanshiri , Iman Sardarian Bajgiran
Trend analysis of extreme events is an efficient method for assessment of climate change effects on hydro-meteorological variables. However, famous methods like Mann-Kendall test are able to detect only one trend slope for all of data series. The crossing empirical trend analysis (CETA) method, recently presented, can detect trend slope for every risk level of data. The aim of this study is to present a modified methodology for CETA method (MCETA) to strengthen it in the cases with non-monotonic peaks in high and low values of data, or with different trend directions in high and low risk level of data. The MCETA modifies the search ranges of slopes and the location of pivot points of the CETA test. The ability of MCETA compared to CETA and Mann-Kendall tests was assessed for trend analysis of spring rainfall for the period 1980–2010 in eastern Iran for 5%, 50%, and 95% risk levels of data. The results showed that the MCETA changed considerably the slope values of 5% and 95% risk levels of data compared to CETA specially for Semnan from 3.65 to −0.55 (for 5%), and from 5.80 to 7.06 (for 95%), as well as Zahedan from −1.80 to −0.59 (for 5%) and from −1.87 to −0.95 (for 95%). Moreover, the slope of 50% in MCETA for almost all stations was lower than that of the M−K test. The MCETA also provides a slope range for each risk level of data that implies the reliability of slopes and improves the test flexibility.
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引用次数: 0
Depth-Dependent isotope dynamics in karst reservoirs: Multi-Decadal monitoring insights from French caves 岩溶储层中与深度有关的同位素动态:法国洞穴的十年监测洞察力
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133028
Jian Zhang , Dominique Genty , François Bourges , Bénédicte Minster , Edouard Régnier , Ludovic Devaux , Stéphane Bujan , Ting-Yong Li
Understanding the stable oxygen isotope (δ18O/δD) compositions in rainwater and cave drip water within karst systems is essential for past climatic reconstructions all over the world. However, the relationship between cave drip water isotopes and upper karst infiltrated water and reservoirs remains unclear. Over twenty years, we monitored eight caves in France, from North to South: Arcy-sur-Cure, Villars, Cussac, Pech-Merle, Chauvet, Orgnac, Niaux, and Clamouse, collecting 3,000 dripping water samples from 32 drip points to measure δ18O and δD isotopes. As already observed in many cave sites, the isotopic composition of drip waters shows temporal stability with a Coefficient of Variation (CV) below 7 %, suggesting effective rainfall mixing during infiltration period. However, putting all these data on cave vertical cross sections, we observed subtle decreasing gradients in the averaged dripping δ18O values. For the first time in a multi-cave study, a clear logarithmic decrease of δ18O and δD with depth is found. Deeper sites show more negative isotopic values, especially in shallower zones (<50 m). In order to better understand these gradients, we used the hydrologic KarstFor model which revealed the importance of overflow mechanisms and of evapotranspiration (ETP) in driving this depth-dependent isotopic effect. These findings emphasize the significance of incorporating depth-dependent reservoir dynamics when analyzing isotopes in cave environments, advocating for a nuanced understanding of karst hydrological processes in affecting stalagmite δ18O.
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引用次数: 0
High-mountain groundwater quality affected by natural acid drainage
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133021
Matías Taucare , Benoît Viguier , Santiago Maza , Vanessa Treskow , Ismael Casado , James McPhee , Diego Morata , Antonio Delgado , Linda Daniele
Groundwater in high-mountain areas like the Central Chilean Andes is a crucial freshwater source for downstream communities. However, its pristine reputation masks a hidden threat when metallogenic systems exist: Natural Acid Drainage (NAD). This study comprehensively investigates the hydrogeological systems and the impact of NAD on groundwater quality in this copper-rich high-altitude region from an interdisciplinary approach. Specifically, the study area lies in the El Arpa Valley, a site with minimal human influence. Isotopic and hydrogeochemical analyses of groundwater, surface water, and snow samples revealed a groundwater origin between 2900 and 3300 m a.s.l. and the influence of fractures and gullies on recharge mechanisms. Physicochemical parameters exhibit increasing mineralisation downstream (118 to 714 µS/cm) with a pH range of 3.86–7.01. SO42--Ca2+ facies and elevated aluminium (4.59–6349.31 ppb), iron (1.00–7003.24 ppb), and manganese (1.25–1098.41 ppb) contents characterise groundwater composition. Rock geochemistry and mineralogy show that phyllic alteration overprinted by supergene processes contributes to NAD by dissolving pyrite and iron oxyhydroxides. Principal component analysis on Landsat 8 images allows for identifying potential NAD areas over 11.6 % of the high Andes. The widespread occurrence challenges the perception of pristine mountain water, emphasising the potential adverse effects on human health and infrastructure, mainly due to high manganese content (>80 ppb). Findings advance the knowledge on NAD occurrence in remote mountainous regions, urging a reassessment of water quality perceptions in the presence of geogenic pollution sources, particularly considering the current threat of climate change.
{"title":"High-mountain groundwater quality affected by natural acid drainage","authors":"Matías Taucare ,&nbsp;Benoît Viguier ,&nbsp;Santiago Maza ,&nbsp;Vanessa Treskow ,&nbsp;Ismael Casado ,&nbsp;James McPhee ,&nbsp;Diego Morata ,&nbsp;Antonio Delgado ,&nbsp;Linda Daniele","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133021","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133021","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Groundwater in high-mountain areas like the Central Chilean Andes is a crucial freshwater source for downstream communities. However, its pristine reputation masks a hidden threat when metallogenic systems exist: Natural Acid Drainage (NAD). This study comprehensively investigates the hydrogeological systems and the impact of NAD on groundwater quality in this copper-rich high-altitude region from an interdisciplinary approach. Specifically, the study area lies in the <em>El Arpa</em> Valley, a site with minimal human influence. Isotopic and hydrogeochemical analyses of groundwater, surface water, and snow samples revealed a groundwater origin between 2900 and 3300 m a.s.l. and the influence of fractures and gullies on recharge mechanisms. Physicochemical parameters exhibit increasing mineralisation downstream (118 to 714 µS/cm) with a pH range of 3.86–7.01. SO<sub>4</sub><sup>2-</sup>-Ca<sup>2+</sup> facies and elevated aluminium (4.59–6349.31 ppb), iron (1.00–7003.24 ppb), and manganese (1.25–1098.41 ppb) contents characterise groundwater composition. Rock geochemistry and mineralogy show that phyllic alteration overprinted by supergene processes contributes to NAD by dissolving pyrite and iron oxyhydroxides. Principal component analysis on Landsat 8 images allows for identifying potential NAD areas over 11.6 % of the high Andes. The widespread occurrence challenges the perception of pristine mountain water, emphasising the potential adverse effects on human health and infrastructure, mainly due to high manganese content (&gt;80 ppb). Findings advance the knowledge on NAD occurrence in remote mountainous regions, urging a reassessment of water quality perceptions in the presence of geogenic pollution sources, particularly considering the current threat of climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 133021"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143580685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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Journal of Hydrology
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