Journal of Hydrology最新文献_第6页

Propagation mechanisms of meteorological to hydrological events in inland river basins of Northwest China: Considering compound climate changes 考虑复合气候变化的西北内陆河流域气象-水文事件传播机制

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134900

Shiyu Zhang , Yixuan Wang , Tingxi Liu , Limin Duan , Jianguo Ji , Xuan Zhang , Wenbo Song , Jianwei Liu

Global climate warming has increasingly complicated the propagation of meteorological to hydrological extremes in arid inland basins, where the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. This study selected five representative inland river basins in Northwest China, and developed a basin-scale framework linking compound climate changes to the propagation of meteorological and hydrological events. The state-dependent behaviors and threshold dynamics of both drought and flood propagation were quantitatively revealed. Results indicate that over the past six decades, the Xilin and Tabu River Basins shifted from cooling-wetting to warming-drying trends, with a significant turning point during 1997–1998. Driven by this climatic shift, drought propagation probabilities rose by 6 % and 131 %, respectively, while flood propagation remained limited. Corresponding thresholds for drought duration and severity decreased by 22 % and 18 % in the Xilin River Basin, and by 5 % and 9 % in the Tabu River Basin. In contrast, the Heihe, Manas, and Kaidu River Basins transitioned from cooling-drying to warming-wetting trends, exhibiting a shift point around 1993–1997. Under this climatic transition, flood propagation probabilities increased by up to 203 %. Thresholds for flood duration and severity declined by 2–18 % and 6–18 %, respectively, while drought propagation showed only minor changes. The propagation mechanisms were found to be significantly modulated by compound climate change involving both temperature and humidity. The eastern rainfall–runoff dominated basins exhibit a higher sensitivity to climate drying, while the western snowmelt–runoff dominated basins is more susceptible to climate warming. These findings provide a scientific basis for understanding extreme formation mechanisms.

全球气候变暖使干旱内陆盆地的气象到水文极端事件的传播日益复杂化，而这些极端事件的潜在机制仍然知之甚少。选取西北地区5个具有代表性的内陆河流域，构建了气候复合变化与气象水文事件传播的流域尺度框架。定量揭示了旱涝传播的状态依赖行为和阈值动态。结果表明：近60 a来，锡林河和塔布河流域由冷-湿向暖干转变，1997-1998年为显著转折期；在这种气候变化的驱动下，干旱传播概率分别上升了6%和131%，而洪水传播概率仍然有限。相应的干旱持续时间和严重程度阈值在西林河流域分别下降了22%和18%，在塔布河流域分别下降了5%和9%。黑河流域、玛纳斯河流域和开都河流域从干冷型向暖湿型转变，在1993-1997年前后出现转折点。在这种气候转变下，洪水传播的可能性增加了203%。洪水持续时间和严重程度的阈值分别下降了2 - 18%和6 - 18%，而干旱传播仅发生微小变化。发现其传播机制受温度和湿度复合气候变化的显著调节。东部以降雨径流为主的流域对气候干燥的敏感性较高，而西部以融雪径流为主的流域对气候变暖的敏感性较高。这些发现为理解极端形成机制提供了科学依据。

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引用次数: 0

Integration of deep learning and improved multi-objective algorithm to optimize cascade reservoirs operation with consideration of ecological dissolved oxygen needs 融合深度学习和改进多目标算法的考虑生态溶解氧需求的梯级水库调度优化

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134899

Zhaoyang Zhu , Haoran Li , Zhaocai Wang , Xingxing Zhang , Zuowen Tan

In the context of global warming and the development of hydraulic projects, changes in hydrology may affect downstream water quality, thereby increasing the risk of algal blooms. In reservoir ecological operation management, there has been a long-standing issue of neglecting the impact of flow variations on downstream dissolved oxygen (DO) levels. Although previous studies have incorporated ecological flow requirements into reservoir operation strategies to balance power generation, flood control, and ecological protection needs, comprehensive trade-off analyses remain insufficient. To bridge this gap, the study proposes a coupled framework (DL-CRS) that integrates a deep learning (DL) model with a cascade reservoir scheduling (CRS) model to optimize complex scheduling problems. The study is applied to a group of lower Jinsha River (JSR) cascade reservoirs, focusing on DO needs at the Hengjiang River (HJR) inlet. This research constructs a CNN-BiLSTM model to predict DO changes accurately and proposes a multi-strategy enhanced algorithm to improve the quality of the Pareto solution set. The results demonstrate that the optimized scheme improves upon the conventional approach by 6.40 % in power generation, 12.93 % in flood control, and 7.27 % in ecological benefits across various typical year scenarios. This study can provide decision support for intelligent scheduling and water quality safety assurance of cascade reservoirs group.

在全球变暖和水利工程开发的背景下，水文变化可能会影响下游水质，从而增加藻华的风险。在水库生态运行管理中，长期存在忽视流量变化对下游溶解氧（DO）水平影响的问题。尽管已有研究将生态流量需求纳入水库运行策略，以平衡发电、防洪和生态保护需求，但仍缺乏全面的权衡分析。为了弥补这一差距，该研究提出了一个耦合框架（DL-CRS），该框架将深度学习（DL）模型与级联水库调度（CRS）模型相结合，以优化复杂的调度问题。本研究以金沙江下游一组梯级水库为研究对象，重点研究了横江进水口DO需求。本研究构建了CNN-BiLSTM模型来准确预测DO的变化，并提出了一种多策略增强算法来提高Pareto解集的质量。结果表明，在不同典型年份情景下，优化方案的发电量、防洪效益和生态效益分别比常规方案提高6.40%、12.93%和7.27%。该研究可为梯级水库群的智能调度和水质安全保障提供决策支持。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing groundwater vulnerability in bedrock islands using the modified GALDIT method 基于改进GALDIT方法的基岩岛屿地下水脆弱性评价

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.134905

Rong Gong , Dongmei Han , Thomas Friborg , Kang Zhang

Groundwater vulnerability in bedrock islands is a critical issue due to limited freshwater storage, complex recharge pathways, and sensitivity to climatic variability and anthropogenic pressures. Current assessments often fail to capture the spatial and temporal variability of these aquifers, and the responses to groundwater regulation remain poorly understood. This study develops a novel hybrid framework that integrates a 3D variable-density groundwater flow and solute transport model with a modified GALDIT index to assess groundwater vulnerability from 2010 to 2040. Take the Changshan Islands of north China as an example, where groundwater abstraction was banned in October 2019. The model simulates groundwater levels and Cl⁻ concentrations, which are used to derive vulnerability indicators and refine their weights using the analytical hierarchy process. The results indicate that net seawater/saltwater intrusion (SWI) prevailed before 2019. Still, after the pumping ban, it was gradually replaced by coastal submarine groundwater discharge (SGD), with high-concentration zones contracting and low-concentration zones expanding. However, the SWI front remained beyond 300 m by 2040, highlighting the limited effectiveness of abstraction-only policies. The vulnerability assessment identified 19.9 % of the area as highly vulnerable, mostly in coastal zones characterized by elevated salinity and strong landward hydraulic gradients. Salinity remains high in these zones despite groundwater level recovery, indicating delayed hydrochemical response and sustained vulnerability. This integrated approach serves as a reference for sustainable groundwater management and protection of the water environment in bedrock islands.

基岩岛屿的地下水脆弱性是一个关键问题，因为淡水储量有限，补给途径复杂，对气候变化和人为压力敏感。目前的评估往往未能捕捉到这些含水层的时空变化，对地下水管制的反应仍然知之甚少。本研究开发了一种新的混合框架，将三维变密度地下水流动和溶质运移模型与改进的GALDIT指数相结合，用于评估2010年至2040年地下水脆弱性。以中国北部的常山群岛为例，该群岛于2019年10月禁止抽取地下水。该模型模拟地下水水位和氯离子浓度，并利用层次分析法得出脆弱性指标并细化其权重。结果表明，在2019年之前，净海水/盐水入侵（SWI）盛行。尽管如此，在禁止抽水后，它逐渐被沿海海底地下水排放（SGD）所取代，高浓度区域收缩，低浓度区域扩张。然而，到2040年，SWI前沿仍然超过300米，这表明仅抽象政策的有效性有限。脆弱性评估确定19.9%的地区为高度脆弱地区，主要位于沿海地区，其特征是盐度升高和向陆地的强水力梯度。尽管地下水水位恢复，但这些地区的盐度仍然很高，表明水化学反应延迟，脆弱性持续存在。这种综合方法可作为基岩岛可持续地下水管理和水环境保护的参考。

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引用次数: 0

A comparative review of ecological models for freshwater ecosystems: frameworks, applications, and limitations 淡水生态系统生态模型的比较综述：框架、应用和局限性

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.134906

Sheraz Akhtar Gil , Yuping Su , Peng Diyi , Gohar Ayub , Guo Jing , Jehangir Ijaz , Tang Jian

Freshwater ecosystems are increasingly threatened by urbanization, agricultural intensification, industrial expansion, and climate change, necessitating robust and context-specific surface water quality models. This review comprehensively assesses seven widely applied models—AQUATOX, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft3D, EFDC, MIKE21, SWAT, and WASP—by comparing their hydrodynamic and water quality frameworks, ecological process representations, and applicability across lakes, reservoirs, and riverine systems. The literature from 2000 to 2025 was reviewed to identify research coverage for each model using targeted keyword combinations. Although the distinct capabilities of these models are well recognized, this synthesis advances current understanding by critically examining their process formulations, dimensional configurations, and computational demands, as well as their performance in data-scarce and complex environments. The comparative analysis reveals clear trade-offs among model complexity, data requirements, calibration intensity, and predictive reliability, stressing that model choice should correspond to system scale, management goals, and resource availability. Emerging directions, such as integrating mechanistic models with artificial intelligence and employing hybrid modeling frameworks, show strong potential to enhance calibration efficiency, model interoperability, and real-world usability. Overall, the findings provide a practical decision-support basis for researchers and policymakers to improve model integration, encourage open-source innovation, and strengthen sustainable freshwater management practices.

淡水生态系统日益受到城市化、农业集约化、工业扩张和气候变化的威胁，因此需要建立强大的地表水质量模型。本文通过比较七个广泛应用的模型——aquatox、ce - quality - w2、Delft3D、EFDC、MIKE21、SWAT和wasp，全面评估了它们的水动力和水质框架、生态过程表征以及在湖泊、水库和河流系统中的适用性。回顾了2000年至2025年的文献，确定了使用目标关键词组合的每个模型的研究覆盖范围。虽然这些模型的独特功能得到了很好的认识，但通过严格检查它们的过程公式、维度配置和计算需求，以及它们在数据稀缺和复杂环境中的性能，这种综合促进了当前的理解。对比分析揭示了模型复杂性、数据需求、校准强度和预测可靠性之间的清晰权衡，强调模型选择应与系统规模、管理目标和资源可用性相对应。新兴方向，如将机械模型与人工智能集成以及采用混合建模框架，显示出提高校准效率、模型互操作性和现实世界可用性的强大潜力。总体而言，研究结果为研究人员和决策者改善模型整合、鼓励开源创新和加强可持续淡水管理实践提供了实用的决策支持依据。

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引用次数: 0

Emerging organic contaminants in groundwater influenced by adjacent rivers. A comparative study of porous and fractured-karst aquifers in southern Poland 受邻近河流影响的地下水中出现的有机污染物。波兰南部多孔岩溶与裂隙岩溶含水层的对比研究

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.134907

Kinga Ślósarczyk, Sabina Jakóbczyk-Karpierz

Emerging organic contaminants (EOCs) are increasingly detected in groundwater recharged by surface water infiltration. This study aimed to assess the distribution of river-derived EOC contamination in groundwater of two aquifer types serving as drinking water supplies in the Silesian Province (southern Poland): a shallow porous aquifer and a deep fractured-karst aquifer. The two selected study sites differed in hydrogeological conditions and the degree of urban development. Water samples were collected from production wells (n = 20) and nearby losing streams (n = 16) during three sampling campaigns. A total of 102 micropollutants from 29 EOC groups were analysed, complemented by physicochemical parameter measurements and basic chemical analyses of water. The results revealed the presence of 23 EOCs in the deep fractured-karst aquifer and 11 EOCs in the shallow porous aquifer, without any group of the investigated EOCs dominating. The dominant river-derived compounds in groundwater were acesulfame and carbamazepine. A few EOCs originating from sources other than wastewater-impacted rivers were also identified, including DEET, which was consistently found in groundwater. Evidence of contaminant migration from surface water to groundwater included similarities in the detected substances as well as the chemistry of groundwater and the recharging rivers. The specific flow characteristics in fractured-karst formations and limited self-attenuation facilitated EOC migration to the deepest parts of the aquifer. The Quaternary sandy aquifer showed a more pronounced relationship between EOC contamination, depth, and well proximity to rivers. The findings provide valuable insights for identifying EOCs to prioritise in future monitoring and efforts to protect groundwater quality.

在地表水入渗补给的地下水中越来越多地检测到新出现的有机污染物。本研究旨在评估波兰南部西里西亚省两种作为饮用水供应的含水层（浅孔含水层和深裂隙岩溶含水层）中河流来源的EOC污染在地下水中的分布。两个研究地点在水文地质条件和城市发展程度上存在差异。在三次采样活动中，从生产井（n = 20）和附近丢失的溪流（n = 16）收集水样。对29个EOC组的102种微污染物进行了分析，并对水进行了理化参数测量和基本化学分析。结果表明，深层裂缝岩溶含水层中存在23个EOCs，浅层多孔含水层中存在11个EOCs，且没有任何一组EOCs占主导地位。地下水中主要的河流衍生化合物是安赛蜜和卡马西平。还确定了一些来自受废水影响的河流以外的其他来源的eoc，包括一直在地下水中发现的避蚊胺。污染物从地表水向地下水迁移的证据包括所检测到的物质的相似性，以及地下水和补给河流的化学性质。裂缝岩溶地层的特殊流动特征和有限的自衰减有利于EOC向含水层最深处运移。第四纪砂质含水层中EOC污染与深度、井距河流之间的关系更为明显。这些发现为确定未来监测和保护地下水质量的优先次序提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Groundwater travel time distributions in two adjacent competing Springs 两个相邻竞争泉水的地下水走时分布

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.134912

Abdarrahman Alarfaj , Fanzhang Zeng , Dingbao Wang

This study investigates groundwater travel time distributions in Silver Springs and Rainbow Springs, which are adjacent first-magnitude springs located in Central Florida and sustained by the Upper Floridan Aquifer. Using the steady-state configuration of the Central Springs Model and MODPATH particle tracking, over 200,000 backward-tracked particles were released per spring to delineate springsheds and quantify groundwater travel times. Lognormal distributions fitted to the empirical travel time data revealed mean groundwater ages of approximately 729 days for Silver Springs and 789 days for Rainbow Springs. Springshed delineations across five temporal thresholds (1, 5, 10, 100, and 1,000 years) revealed asymmetrical expansion patterns and a zone of overlap at the 1,000-year threshold, indicating long-term hydraulic connectivity between the two systems. Monte Carlo-based uncertainty analyses demonstrated moderate sensitivity of groundwater age to spatial variability in hydraulic conductivity, particularly in Rainbow Springs, while recharge variability exerted minimal influence. Hydrologic stress scenarios showed that recharge magnitude is a first-order control on travel time, with nonlinear responses under dry conditions and linear behavior under wet conditions. Groundwater pumping had a minor effect on travel time, reflecting the high transmissivity and efficient stress redistribution within the Upper Floridan Aquifer. These findings underscore the importance of conduit network geometry in shaping groundwater age distributions and highlight the need for integrated regional groundwater management strategies that account for shared recharge sources and competitive flow dynamics.

本研究调查了银泉和彩虹泉的地下水传播时间分布，这两个相邻的一级泉位于佛罗里达州中部，由佛罗里达上含水层维持。利用中央泉模型的稳态配置和MODPATH粒子跟踪，每个春天释放超过20万个反向跟踪的粒子，以描绘泉库并量化地下水的移动时间。对经验走时数据拟合的对数正态分布显示，银泉的平均地下水年龄约为729 天，彩虹泉的平均地下水年龄约为789 天。跨越5个时间阈值（1、5、10、100和1000 年）的泉水圈定揭示了不对称的扩张模式和1000年阈值的重叠区，表明两个系统之间存在长期的水力连通性。基于蒙特卡罗的不确定性分析表明，地下水年龄对水力导电性的空间变异性具有中等敏感性，特别是在彩虹泉，而补给变异性的影响很小。水文应力情景表明，补给量是对行程时间的一阶控制，在干燥条件下具有非线性响应，在潮湿条件下具有线性响应。地下水抽水对行程时间的影响较小，反映了佛罗里达上部含水层的高透射性和有效的应力重分布。这些发现强调了管道网络几何形状对形成地下水年龄分布的重要性，并强调了综合区域地下水管理战略的必要性，该战略考虑了共享补给来源和竞争流动动力学。

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引用次数: 0

Spatiotemporal variations of rainfall interception before and after implementation of Grain for Green Program in the Loess Plateau 退耕还林工程实施前后黄土高原降水截留时空变化

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134893

Junyan Chen , Guozheng Liu , Jing Wu , Keyu Zhao , Tiegang Liu

Although the Grain for Green Program (GFGP) has significantly greened the Loess Plateau (LP) since 1999, the responses of rainfall interception (RI) to climate variability and ecological restoration remain insufficiently quantified regarding the effects of the GFGP. This study employed the Gash sparse model driven by 3-hour MSWEP precipitation data to assess the differences in RI across the LP between the GFGP period (2000–2015) and the pre-GFGP period (1984–1999), and to quantify the contributions of climate change and vegetation restoration as drivers of this change through scenario simulation. Results showed that mean annual RI in the LP increased from 2.40 × 10¹⁰ m³ (38.42 mm) in 1984–1999 to 2.84 × 10¹⁰ m³ (45.56 mm) in 2000–2015, with an increase of 4.45 × 10⁹ m³ (7.14 mm). Notably, vegetation restoration dominated this increase (94.3 %), far exceeding climate contributions (−1.5 %). RI trends shifted from an insignificant decline (−1.98 × 10⁸ m³ yr⁻¹, p = 0.62) during the pre-GFGP period to a significant increase (3.91 × 10⁸ m³ yr⁻¹, p = 0.02) during the GFGP period. We suggested that policy formulation should incorporate considerations of the trade-offs between ecological restoration and water resources, and advocated threshold-based strategies to balance greening and sustainable water use.

尽管退耕还林工程（GFGP）自1999年以来在黄土高原（LP）取得了显著的绿化效果，但降雨截留（RI）对气候变率和生态恢复的响应仍然不够量化。本研究采用3小时MSWEP降水数据驱动的Gash稀疏模型，评估了GFGP期间（2000-2015年）与GFGP前时期（1984-1999年）在LP上的RI差异，并通过情景模拟量化了气候变化和植被恢复作为这一变化驱动因素的贡献。结果表明：LP年平均RI由1984-1999年的2.40 × 1010 m3 （38.42 mm）增加到2000-2015年的2.84 × 1010 m3 (45.56 mm)，其中增加了4.45 × 109 m3 (7.14 mm)；值得注意的是，植被恢复主导了这一增长（94.3%），远远超过气候贡献（- 1.5%）。在GFGP前期，RI趋势从显著下降（- 1.98 × 108 m3 yr - 1, p = 0.62）转变为显著增加（3.91 × 108 m3 yr - 1, p = 0.02）。我们建议政策制定应考虑生态恢复与水资源之间的权衡，并提倡基于阈值的策略来平衡绿化和可持续用水。

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引用次数: 0

Water column acts as a non-negligible CH4 source in large rivers 在大型河流中，水柱是一个不可忽视的CH4源

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.134911

Junfeng Wang , Shaoda Liu , Ling Zhang , Zhuangzhuang Zhang , Wenxiu Zheng , Sibo Zhang , Xinghui Xia

Methane (CH₄) is thought to be mainly produced in anoxic sediments in rivers and emitted to atmosphere through water column. Yet, CH₄ dynamics in the water column are poorly understood in river systems. Here, we reveal the role of water column in riverine CH₄ emissions based on 4-year in situ observations across six large river networks in China. We find that water column acts as a potential CH₄ sink in 64 % of the observations from lower-order (≤ 6th) rivers. In contrast, water column acts as a potential CH₄ source in 67 % of the observations from higher-order rivers, which is probably attributed to CH₄ generation at the anoxic interface of suspended particles or synthesis by phytoplankton. The water–air CH₄ fluxes decrease but water column production potential and its contribution increase with stream order. The water column consumes 6 ± 4 % of the CH₄ released from sediment in lower-order rivers, while contributes 12 ± 2 % to CH₄ emissions in higher-order rivers, suggesting that water column potentially shifts from a CH₄ sink in streams to a source in large rivers. This shift is mainly attributed to the increase in river depth and higher concentrations of suspended particles, which facilitate methanogenesis in the water column of large rivers. Our findings indicate that CH₄ production in the water column represents a non-negligible CH₄ source and can be important for CH₄ cycling and emissions in river systems, especially for large rivers.

甲烷（CH4）被认为主要产生于河流缺氧沉积物中，并通过水柱排放到大气中。然而，在河流水系中，人们对水柱中的CH4动力学知之甚少。本文基于中国6个大型河网4年的原位观测，揭示了水柱在河流CH4排放中的作用。我们发现，在64%的低阶（≤6级）河流观测中，水柱作为潜在的CH4汇。相比之下，67%的高阶河流观测结果显示水柱是潜在的CH4源，这可能是由于悬浮颗粒在缺氧界面生成CH4或浮游植物合成CH4所致。水气CH4通量随水流顺序减小，水柱生产潜力及其贡献增大。在低阶河流中，水柱消耗了沉积物释放CH4的6±4%，而在高阶河流中，水柱贡献了CH4排放的12±2%，表明水柱可能从溪流中的CH4汇转移到大河中的CH4源。这种变化主要是由于河流深度的增加和悬浮颗粒浓度的增加，这有利于大型河流水柱中的甲烷生成。我们的研究结果表明，水柱中CH4的产生是一个不可忽视的CH4来源，对于河流系统中CH4的循环和排放非常重要，特别是对于大型河流。

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引用次数: 0

Triple oxygen isotopes in Texas precipitation reveal variability in the nature and timing of secondary evaporation 德克萨斯州降水中的三氧同位素揭示了二次蒸发的性质和时间的变异性

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134859

L.N. Arellano, E.J. Beverly, C.B. Skinner

引用次数: 0

Projecting the changes in streamflow components based on the generalized proportionality hypothesis 基于广义比例假设的水流分量变化预测

IF 6.3 1区地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Journal of Hydrology

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134902

Xin Yan , Qi Feng , Wei Liu , Xiaohua Wei , Meng Zhu , Linshan Yang , Zhi Li

Streamflow components (surface runoff and baseflow) play distinct regulatory roles in global water cycles and ecosystem stability; however, systematic understanding of their differential responses to climate change remains limited. This study developed a two-stage runoff model based on the generalized proportionality hypothesis. Using the trend-preserving bias-corrected climate data from five regional climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, we systematically projected streamflow component responses across 56 hydrological stations nested in 13 basins of China’s Loess Plateau during 2021–2050. Model validation demonstrated satisfactory performance (R² = 0.898 and 0.902 for surface runoff and baseflow, respectively), compared with the observed data. Under RCP4.5, increased precipitation (ranging from 5.7 mm/10a to 46.3 mm/10a) raised surface runoff at 95 % of stations and baseflow at 80 % of stations. Under RCP8.5, enhanced evapotranspiration (ranging from 13.6 to 18.8 mm/10a) significantly reduced baseflow at 30 % of stations, far exceeding the 11 % for surface runoff. This differential response originated from inherent hydrological characteristics: rapid surface runoff generation triggered by storm rainfall, and slow soil water-to-groundwater transformation processes. The model provides a novel analytical framework for coupled streamflow component assessment and adaptive water resource management under changing environments.

径流组分（地表径流和基流）在全球水循环和生态系统稳定性中发挥着明显的调节作用；然而，系统地了解它们对气候变化的不同反应仍然有限。本文建立了基于广义比例假设的两阶段径流模型。利用RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下5个区域气候模式的趋势保持偏校正气候数据，系统预测了中国黄土高原13个流域56个水文站2021-2050年的径流分量响应。与观测数据相比，模型验证结果令人满意（地表径流和基流的R2分别为0.898和0.902）。在RCP4.5条件下，降水增加（5.7 ~ 46.3 mm/10a）增加了95%台站的地表径流，增加了80%台站的基流。在RCP8.5条件下，蒸散量的增加（13.6 ~ 18.8 mm/10a）显著减少了30%站点的基流，远远超过地表径流的11%。这种差异反应源于固有的水文特征：暴雨引发的地表径流产生迅速，土壤水到地下水的转化过程缓慢。该模型为变化环境下的径流分量耦合评价和水资源自适应管理提供了一个新的分析框架。

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