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Changes in land evapotranspiration under vegetation greening over the Arctic: Patterns, causes and temperature effects 北极植被绿化下陆地蒸散量的变化:模式、原因和温度影响
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132996
Linfei Yu , Guoyong Leng , Chenxi Lu , Lei Yao
Vegetation greening has been confirmed across the Arctic, which inevitably impacts the region’s water and energy cycles. Land evapotranspiration (ET), a critical component of these cycles, is influenced by vegetation dynamics and climate change, and it also provides feedback on the climate. However, the dominant factors influencing changes in land ET and its temperature effects remain unclear in the Arctic. In this study, we used the Bayesian-based regression method, geographical detectors, Extreme Gradient Boosting, SHapley Additive exPlanation, and empirical equations to comprehensively investigate the patterns, causes, and temperature effects of land ET changes during significant greening periods and across regions of the Arctic from 1982 to 2015. In terms of patterns, land ET showed a non-significant (p > 0.05) upward trend (0.39 mm/decade) in July and a significant (p < 0.001) downward trend (−0.88 mm/decade) in August. Spatially, in July, land ET exhibited a significant upward trend across western Alaska, Victoria Island, Nunavut, and western Yakutia. In August, land ET decreased across most significant greening regions, except for the Canadian Archipelago. Regarding causes, attribution analysis indicates that precipitation is the dominant factor determining the spatial pattern of land ET change trends across the Arctic. Additionally, increased precipitation and solar radiation positively contributed to the enhanced land ET in July, while the reduced land ET in August was primarily controlled by decreased precipitation. As for the temperature effects, ET process exerts an important cooling effect on the Arctic climate, particularly in the tundra wetlands, with a long-term average cooling effect of −0.27 °C in July, −0.20 °C in August, and −0.24 °C for the average of July and August across significant greening regions from 1982 to 2015. The findings of this study could improve our understanding of Arctic water cycle, thereby improving the prediction and assessment of Arctic water circulation under climate warming.
{"title":"Changes in land evapotranspiration under vegetation greening over the Arctic: Patterns, causes and temperature effects","authors":"Linfei Yu ,&nbsp;Guoyong Leng ,&nbsp;Chenxi Lu ,&nbsp;Lei Yao","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132996","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132996","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vegetation greening has been confirmed across the Arctic, which inevitably impacts the region’s water and energy cycles. Land evapotranspiration (ET), a critical component of these cycles, is influenced by vegetation dynamics and climate change, and it also provides feedback on the climate. However, the dominant factors influencing changes in land ET and its temperature effects remain unclear in the Arctic. In this study, we used the Bayesian-based regression method, geographical detectors, Extreme Gradient Boosting, SHapley Additive exPlanation, and empirical equations to comprehensively investigate the patterns, causes, and temperature effects of land ET changes during significant greening periods and across regions of the Arctic from 1982 to 2015. In terms of patterns, land ET showed a non-significant (<em>p</em> &gt; 0.05) upward trend (0.39 mm/decade) in July and a significant (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.001) downward trend (−0.88 mm/decade) in August. Spatially, in July, land ET exhibited a significant upward trend across western Alaska, Victoria Island, Nunavut, and western Yakutia. In August, land ET decreased across most significant greening regions, except for the Canadian Archipelago. Regarding causes, attribution analysis indicates that precipitation is the dominant factor determining the spatial pattern of land ET change trends across the Arctic. Additionally, increased precipitation and solar radiation positively contributed to the enhanced land ET in July, while the reduced land ET in August was primarily controlled by decreased precipitation. As for the temperature effects, ET process exerts an important cooling effect on the Arctic climate, particularly in the tundra wetlands, with a long-term average cooling effect of −0.27 °C in July, −0.20 °C in August, and −0.24 °C for the average of July and August across significant greening regions from 1982 to 2015. The findings of this study could improve our understanding of Arctic water cycle, thereby improving the prediction and assessment of Arctic water circulation under climate warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 132996"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143563184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Increased atmospheric water demand reduces ecosystem water use efficiency
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133031
Yuanqiao Li , Xuanzong Xie , Wenping Yuan
Revealing the drivers and underlying mechanisms of ecosystem water use efficiency are crucial for forecasting the impact of future climatic change on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics. Recent decades have been characterized by rising temperature worldwide, leading to a rapid increase in vapor pressure deficit. However, how elevated vapor pressure deficit would modulate the water use efficiency and the underlying mechanisms remain not fully understood. In this study, the spatial responses of water use efficiency to vapor pressure deficit were assessed through observations from 109 eddy covariance flux towers. Spatially, the negative sensitivity coefficients of water use efficiency to vapor pressure deficit significantly decreased with increasing aridity index, indicating that higher decreasing rate in water use efficiency with increased vapor pressure deficit in wet regions than that in dry regions. Compared to other environmental factors, vapor pressure deficit was the dominant driver regulating the water use efficiency variations, accounting to 19.93 %. More importantly, water use efficiency in response to vapor pressure deficit was dominated by more significantly negative gross primary productivity than the evapotranspiration. By the end of this century, vapor pressure deficit will increase by approximate 1.00 kPa, resulting in decreases of the average water use efficiency by 0.57–1.65 g C/kg H2O under the highest emission scenario. This finding improves our understanding of future climate change on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics and provides valuable insights into predicting vegetation growth and managing ecosystems under a more extreme climate.
{"title":"Increased atmospheric water demand reduces ecosystem water use efficiency","authors":"Yuanqiao Li ,&nbsp;Xuanzong Xie ,&nbsp;Wenping Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133031","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Revealing the drivers and underlying mechanisms of ecosystem water use efficiency are crucial for forecasting the impact of future climatic change on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics. Recent decades have been characterized by rising temperature worldwide, leading to a rapid increase in vapor pressure deficit. However, how elevated vapor pressure deficit would modulate the water use efficiency and the underlying mechanisms remain not fully understood. In this study, the spatial responses of water use efficiency to vapor pressure deficit were assessed through observations from 109 eddy covariance flux towers. Spatially, the negative sensitivity coefficients of water use efficiency to vapor pressure deficit significantly decreased with increasing aridity index, indicating that higher decreasing rate in water use efficiency with increased vapor pressure deficit in wet regions than that in dry regions. Compared to other environmental factors, vapor pressure deficit was the dominant driver regulating the water use efficiency variations, accounting to 19.93 %. More importantly, water use efficiency in response to vapor pressure deficit was dominated by more significantly negative gross primary productivity than the evapotranspiration. By the end of this century, vapor pressure deficit will increase by approximate 1.00 kPa, resulting in decreases of the average water use efficiency by 0.57–1.65 g C/kg H<sub>2</sub>O under the highest emission scenario. This finding improves our understanding of future climate change on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics and provides valuable insights into predicting vegetation growth and managing ecosystems under a more extreme climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 133031"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143591352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global warming changes patterns of runoff and sediment flux in Tibetan Yangtze River headwater
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133009
Yinjun Zhou , Junfeng Han , Feng Wang , Xisheng Liu , Yujiao Liu , Xia Yan , Guoshuai Zhang , Junxiao Ma , Tong Wei , Zhongwu Jin , Zhijing Li , Dongfeng Li , Gang Wang , Lu Shi , Zhongping Lai
The Tibetan Plateau acts as an Asian water tower and amplifies global warming, which leads to increased runoff and sediment flux in Tibetan rivers in recent years. Consequently, downstream areas face an increased risk of flood disasters. However, there is still a lack of clarity regarding the alterations, impacts, and mechanisms involved in runoff and sediment flux based on the latest data. Here, the cumulative anomaly, sliding T-test, and M−K trend test were employed to analyze the temporal mutation of meteorological and hydrological data (1957–2023 CE) from Yangtze River headwaters. The analysis revealed three distinct periods: P0 (1957–2004), P1 (2005–2016), and P2 (2017–2023), and demonstrated that (1) the maximum monthly runoff shifted from July (P0–P1) to September (P2) due to increased icemelt; (2) the ratio of September sediment flux to annual increased from 13% (P1) to 20% (P2); and (3) the percentage of temperature contribution to runoff increased from 44% (P1) to 57% (P2), overtaking that of the precipitation. In September the warming-driven increase in runoff overlapped with sediment flux increase caused by reduced sediment fixation capacity of vegetation. Our findings, which reveal that global warming drives both runoff peak shifting from July to September and sediment flux sharp increase in September, are critical for future disaster prevention and siltation control in downstream regions.
{"title":"Global warming changes patterns of runoff and sediment flux in Tibetan Yangtze River headwater","authors":"Yinjun Zhou ,&nbsp;Junfeng Han ,&nbsp;Feng Wang ,&nbsp;Xisheng Liu ,&nbsp;Yujiao Liu ,&nbsp;Xia Yan ,&nbsp;Guoshuai Zhang ,&nbsp;Junxiao Ma ,&nbsp;Tong Wei ,&nbsp;Zhongwu Jin ,&nbsp;Zhijing Li ,&nbsp;Dongfeng Li ,&nbsp;Gang Wang ,&nbsp;Lu Shi ,&nbsp;Zhongping Lai","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Tibetan Plateau acts as an Asian water tower and amplifies global warming, which leads to increased runoff and sediment flux in Tibetan rivers in recent years. Consequently, downstream areas face an increased risk of flood disasters. However, there is still a lack of clarity regarding the alterations, impacts, and mechanisms involved in runoff and sediment flux based on the latest data. Here, the cumulative anomaly, sliding T-test, and M−K trend test were employed to analyze the temporal mutation of meteorological and hydrological data (1957–2023 CE) from Yangtze River headwaters. The analysis revealed three distinct periods: P0 (1957–2004), P1 (2005–2016), and P2 (2017–2023), and demonstrated that (1) the maximum monthly runoff shifted from July (P0–P1) to September (P2) due to increased icemelt; (2) the ratio of September sediment flux to annual increased from 13% (P1) to 20% (P2); and (3) the percentage of temperature contribution to runoff increased from 44% (P1) to 57% (P2), overtaking that of the precipitation. In September the warming-driven increase in runoff overlapped with sediment flux increase caused by reduced sediment fixation capacity of vegetation. Our findings, which reveal that global warming drives both runoff peak shifting from July to September and sediment flux sharp increase in September, are critical for future disaster prevention and siltation control in downstream regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 133009"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143580688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Two-dimensional modelling for particles transport in wave field
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133017
Junqing Ren , Yuhong Zeng , Xiaoguang Liu
Understanding the transport process of substances (e.g., sediments, or propagules like plant seeds) in wave field is of great significance for the ecological restoration and the maintenance of the species diversity in coastal areas. Based on the linear wave and the multi-scale homogenization theory, an analytical solution for the two-dimensional concentration distribution of particles in wave field has been obtained. The analytically predicted longitudinal dispersion coefficient has been verified by results from the literature, and the mean concentration distribution has been verified by the numerical results based on the random displacement model. Additionally, the effect of the wave orbital motion on the concentration distribution of particles is analyzed. The results indicate that, after a long time evolution, the wave orbital motion has little effect on the longitudinal concentration distributions, while the vertical concentration distribution exhibits periodic variations. Finally, the effects of wave parameters on the vertical uniformity and two-dimensional concentration distribution are discussed. The results demonstrate that as the period increases, the vertical concentration distribution becomes more uniform. The maximum of the concentration cloud decreases with increasing wave height. With the increase of water depth, the positions of the peak concentration on the free surface move in the downstream, and those at the water bottom move in upstream directions, respectively. The findings about the spatial and temporal evolution of the particles within the wave field can provide quantized assessment of ecological conditions in coastal wetlands, and provide scientific guidance for ecological restoration.
{"title":"Two-dimensional modelling for particles transport in wave field","authors":"Junqing Ren ,&nbsp;Yuhong Zeng ,&nbsp;Xiaoguang Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the transport process of substances (e.g., sediments, or propagules like plant seeds) in wave field is of great significance for the ecological restoration and the maintenance of the species diversity in coastal areas. Based on the linear wave and the multi-scale homogenization theory, an analytical solution for the two-dimensional concentration distribution of particles in wave field has been obtained. The analytically predicted longitudinal dispersion coefficient has been verified by results from the literature, and the mean concentration distribution has been verified by the numerical results based on the random displacement model. Additionally, the effect of the wave orbital motion on the concentration distribution of particles is analyzed. The results indicate that, after a long time evolution, the wave orbital motion has little effect on the longitudinal concentration distributions, while the vertical concentration distribution exhibits periodic variations. Finally, the effects of wave parameters on the vertical uniformity and two-dimensional concentration distribution are discussed. The results demonstrate that as the period increases, the vertical concentration distribution becomes more uniform. The maximum of the concentration cloud decreases with increasing wave height. With the increase of water depth, the positions of the peak concentration on the free surface move in the downstream, and those at the water bottom move in upstream directions, respectively. The findings about the spatial and temporal evolution of the particles within the wave field can provide quantized assessment of ecological conditions in coastal wetlands, and provide scientific guidance for ecological restoration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 133017"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143580689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Remote sensing of root zone soil moisture: A review of methods and products
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133002
Abba Aliyu Kasim , Pei Leng , Yu-Xuan Li , Qian-Yu Liao , Yun-Jing Geng , Jianwei Ma , Yayong Sun , Xiaoning Song , Si-Bo Duan , Zhao-Liang Li
The demand for accurate and reliable estimates of root zone soil moisture (RZSM) has been increasing because of the growing need to address global concerns, including climate change and food security. In recent decades, significant advances have been made for inferring RZSM from remotely sensed observations, providing many methods and products that are available for Earth science fields. However, there are conflicting views in the recent literature regarding the accuracy of these methods due to regional differences in climate, soil, and vegetation conditions, as well as variations in parameterization and calibration approaches. These techniques have not been adequately discussed and documented in the literature. This article comprehensively reviews the satellite-based RZSM estimation methods (however some methods are not exclusively remote sensing-based, but in theory satellite data can be applicable to them), discusses their basic principles, and highlights their strengths, weaknesses, and potential research directions. We categorize these methods into two groups: those that estimate RZSM with knowledge of surface soil moisture (SSM) and those that estimate RZSM without SSM knowledge. Although these methods show varying levels of accuracy, periodic review required to address neglected assumptions, modify algorithms, and develop new ones in line with technological advancements of the 21st Century. In addition, we adequately describe and compare the major satellite-based global RZSM products at present to understand their global and local patterns and uncover existing problems. This review will serve as a reference for scientists in various fields to make informed decisions on the preferred methods for estimating RZSM from remote sensing measurements.
{"title":"Remote sensing of root zone soil moisture: A review of methods and products","authors":"Abba Aliyu Kasim ,&nbsp;Pei Leng ,&nbsp;Yu-Xuan Li ,&nbsp;Qian-Yu Liao ,&nbsp;Yun-Jing Geng ,&nbsp;Jianwei Ma ,&nbsp;Yayong Sun ,&nbsp;Xiaoning Song ,&nbsp;Si-Bo Duan ,&nbsp;Zhao-Liang Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The demand for accurate and reliable estimates of root zone soil moisture (RZSM) has been increasing because of the growing need to address global concerns, including climate change and food security. In recent decades, significant advances have been made for inferring RZSM from remotely sensed observations, providing many methods and products that are available for Earth science fields. However, there are conflicting views in the recent literature regarding the accuracy of these methods due to regional differences in climate, soil, and vegetation conditions, as well as variations in parameterization and calibration approaches. These techniques have not been adequately discussed and documented in the literature. This article comprehensively reviews the satellite-based RZSM estimation methods (however some methods are not exclusively remote sensing-based, but in theory satellite data can be applicable to them), discusses their basic principles, and highlights their strengths, weaknesses, and potential research directions. We categorize these methods into two groups: those that estimate RZSM with knowledge of surface soil moisture (SSM) and those that estimate RZSM without SSM knowledge. Although these methods show varying levels of accuracy, periodic review required to address neglected assumptions, modify algorithms, and develop new ones in line with technological advancements of the 21st Century. In addition, we adequately describe and compare the major satellite-based global RZSM products at present to understand their global and local patterns and uncover existing problems. This review will serve as a reference for scientists in various fields to make informed decisions on the preferred methods for estimating RZSM from remote sensing measurements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 133002"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143551869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Delineating dynamic hydrological response units to improve simulations of extreme runoff events in changing environments
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133000
Yuheng Yang , Ruiying Zhao , Asim Biswas
Accurate understanding of watershed hydrology is vital for managing water resources and predicting extreme events. However, existing distributed hydrological models depend on static hydrological response unit (HRU) clusters, which do not adequately reflect temporal variability driven by climate and human activities over time. In this study, we introduce a novel dynamic HRU clustering methodology that considers time-varying environmental factors to improve the accuracy of hydrological simulations. Using a distributed hydrological model (i.e., the Water and Energy Transfer Processes model), we identified the dynamics of HRU clusters from 1951 to 2020 and assessed the effectiveness of the model when dynamic HRU clusters were used in capturing extreme hydrological events across Southeast Asian watersheds. Our results indicate significant spatiotemporal variability in HRU clusters, with 51.8% of the study area experiencing changes during the last few decades. Hydrological simulations using dynamic HRU clusters showed improved performance, with the average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) for the runoff simulations across 14 hydrological stations improved from 0.49 to 0.72. Additionally, the simulations of extreme events using dynamic HRU clusters demonstrated high accuracy, reducing the differences between the simulated and observed runoff thresholds for drought and flood events. We further analyzed the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff dynamics, revealing that air temperature and human activities are the primary drivers of runoff changes, with spatial heterogeneity observed across different watersheds. Our study indicates that incorporating dynamic environmental factors into hydrological models enhances the simulation accuracy and supports water resource management and climate adaptation strategies.
准确了解流域水文对于管理水资源和预测极端事件至关重要。然而,现有的分布式水文模型依赖于静态水文响应单元(HRU)聚类,而静态水文响应单元并不能充分反映气候和人类活动随着时间推移而产生的时变性。在本研究中,我们引入了一种新的动态 HRU 聚类方法,该方法考虑了时变环境因素,以提高水文模拟的准确性。利用分布式水文模型(即水和能量传递过程模型),我们确定了 1951 年至 2020 年的 HRU 聚类动态,并评估了动态 HRU 聚类用于捕捉东南亚流域极端水文事件时模型的有效性。我们的研究结果表明,HRU 聚类具有显著的时空变异性,51.8% 的研究区域在过去几十年间发生了变化。使用动态 HRU 聚类的水文模拟性能有所提高,14 个水文站的径流模拟平均纳什-苏特克利夫效率系数(NSE)从 0.49 提高到 0.72。此外,使用动态 HRU 群对极端事件的模拟也表现出很高的准确性,减少了干旱和洪水事件模拟阈值与观测阈值之间的差异。我们进一步分析了气候变化和人类活动对径流动态的影响,结果表明气温和人类活动是径流变化的主要驱动因素,在不同流域观察到空间异质性。我们的研究表明,将动态环境因素纳入水文模型可提高模拟精度,支持水资源管理和气候适应战略。
{"title":"Delineating dynamic hydrological response units to improve simulations of extreme runoff events in changing environments","authors":"Yuheng Yang ,&nbsp;Ruiying Zhao ,&nbsp;Asim Biswas","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133000","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133000","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate understanding of watershed hydrology is vital for managing water resources and predicting extreme events. However, existing distributed hydrological models depend on static hydrological response unit (HRU) clusters, which do not adequately reflect temporal variability driven by climate and human activities over time. In this study, we introduce a novel dynamic HRU clustering methodology that considers time-varying environmental factors to improve the accuracy of hydrological simulations. Using a distributed hydrological model (i.e., the Water and Energy Transfer Processes model), we identified the dynamics of HRU clusters from 1951 to 2020 and assessed the effectiveness of the model when dynamic HRU clusters were used in capturing extreme hydrological events across Southeast Asian watersheds. Our results indicate significant spatiotemporal variability in HRU clusters, with 51.8% of the study area experiencing changes during the last few decades. Hydrological simulations using dynamic HRU clusters showed improved performance, with the average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) for the runoff simulations across 14 hydrological stations improved from 0.49 to 0.72. Additionally, the simulations of extreme events using dynamic HRU clusters demonstrated high accuracy, reducing the differences between the simulated and observed runoff thresholds for drought and flood events. We further analyzed the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff dynamics, revealing that air temperature and human activities are the primary drivers of runoff changes, with spatial heterogeneity observed across different watersheds. Our study indicates that incorporating dynamic environmental factors into hydrological models enhances the simulation accuracy and supports water resource management and climate adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 133000"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143551874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The driving effect of Freeze-Thaw action on the shallow groundwater level fluctuation by altering the hydraulic conductivity of surface soil
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133004
Peng Xu , Baisha Weng , Denghua Yan , Jianmin Bian , Hao Wang
The fluctuation of groundwater levels during the freeze–thaw period exhibits a close connection with the hydrothermal variations in the surface soil. However, the underlying mechanisms and the extent of their correlation have not been thoroughly explored, which is crucial for understanding the evolution of groundwater circulation in permafrost regions under the context of climate change. This study utilizes field observation data from different permafrost regions in the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, proposing a calculation method for soil water potential and permeability coefficients suitable for freeze–thaw environments. It quantifies the contribution of freeze–thaw action to the fluctuation of shallow groundwater levels and analyzes the changes in the hydraulic conductivity of surface soil and their driving effects on shallow groundwater level fluctuations. The results indicate that groundwater level fluctuations are synchronized with the freeze–thaw process. The movement of the freeze–thaw front exhibits a quadratic polynomial relationship with the cumulative changes in groundwater level, with the highest amplitude of fluctuation and fitting degree observed in the continuous permafrost regions of high mountains. During the freeze–thaw period, hydrothermal variations in the soil lead to changes in hydraulic conductivity (comprising permeability coefficient and water potential gradient), thereby driving groundwater level fluctuations by modifying the direction and efficiency of water transport. The extent of freeze–thaw effects on groundwater level decline during this period varies between 3.97 ± 1.66 % − 64.49 ± 35.17 %, and is governed by various factors including initial groundwater depth, soil particle size distribution, and lateral water recharge and discharge conditions. These research results are instrumental in evaluating the impact of climate change on water resources in cold regions, and offer a scientific foundation for water resource management and ecosystem conservation.
{"title":"The driving effect of Freeze-Thaw action on the shallow groundwater level fluctuation by altering the hydraulic conductivity of surface soil","authors":"Peng Xu ,&nbsp;Baisha Weng ,&nbsp;Denghua Yan ,&nbsp;Jianmin Bian ,&nbsp;Hao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The fluctuation of groundwater levels during the freeze–thaw period exhibits a close connection with the hydrothermal variations in the surface soil. However, the underlying mechanisms and the extent of their correlation have not been thoroughly explored, which is crucial for understanding the evolution of groundwater circulation in permafrost regions under the context of climate change. This study utilizes field observation data from different permafrost regions in the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, proposing a calculation method for soil water potential and permeability coefficients suitable for freeze–thaw environments. It quantifies the contribution of freeze–thaw action to the fluctuation of shallow groundwater levels and analyzes the changes in the hydraulic conductivity of surface soil and their driving effects on shallow groundwater level fluctuations. The results indicate that groundwater level fluctuations are synchronized with the freeze–thaw process. The movement of the freeze–thaw front exhibits a quadratic polynomial relationship with the cumulative changes in groundwater level, with the highest amplitude of fluctuation and fitting degree observed in the continuous permafrost regions of high mountains. During the freeze–thaw period, hydrothermal variations in the soil lead to changes in hydraulic conductivity (comprising permeability coefficient and water potential gradient), thereby driving groundwater level fluctuations by modifying the direction and efficiency of water transport. The extent of freeze–thaw effects on groundwater level decline during this period varies between 3.97 ± 1.66 % − 64.49 ± 35.17 %, and is governed by various factors including initial groundwater depth, soil particle size distribution, and lateral water recharge and discharge conditions. These research results are instrumental in evaluating the impact of climate change on water resources in cold regions, and offer a scientific foundation for water resource management and ecosystem conservation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 133004"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143580686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Land subsidence simulation considering groundwater and compressible layers based on an improved machine learning method
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133008
Liyuan Shi , Huili Gong , Beibei Chen , Zhenfeng Shao , Chaofan Zhou
Land subsidence is a significant issue in the Beijing Plain, China, induced by groundwater overexploitation. The regional land subsidence is experiencing a new development trend with the external water source provided by the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SWDP). The study proposes a novel model to simulate large-scale land subsidence that combines the weight of evidence (WOE) with the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) to explore the causes of land subsidence development after SWDP. The model encodes categorical variables to integrate information and evidence, reducing noise in the data, improving their interpretability, and enhancing robustness by transforming input features into more informative representations. The research findings show that SWDP has effectively mitigated subsidence development in the Beijing Plain from 2011 to 2018, reducing the subsidence area from 78 % to 58 % and the maximum rate from 135 mm/y to 110 mm/y. After SWDP, regional land subsidence is mainly attributed to the effects of groundwater and compressible clay layer and is related to engineering activities occurring on other construction land. Despite improved water use structures, water level changes in the second and third confined aquifers continue dominating the subsidence development. Unlike previous machine learning approaches, the proposed method can directly handle discrete data and is more adept at predicting severe subsidence changes. This study can be used to plan remediation strategies for regional land subsidence.
{"title":"Land subsidence simulation considering groundwater and compressible layers based on an improved machine learning method","authors":"Liyuan Shi ,&nbsp;Huili Gong ,&nbsp;Beibei Chen ,&nbsp;Zhenfeng Shao ,&nbsp;Chaofan Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Land subsidence is a significant issue in the Beijing Plain, China, induced by groundwater overexploitation. The regional land subsidence is experiencing a new development trend with the external water source provided by the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SWDP). The study proposes a novel model to simulate large-scale land subsidence that combines the weight of evidence (WOE) with the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) to explore the causes of land subsidence development after SWDP. The model encodes categorical variables to integrate information and evidence, reducing noise in the data, improving their interpretability, and enhancing robustness by transforming input features into more informative representations. The research findings show that SWDP has effectively mitigated subsidence development in the Beijing Plain from 2011 to 2018, reducing the subsidence area from 78 % to 58 % and the maximum rate from 135 mm/y to 110 mm/y. After SWDP, regional land subsidence is mainly attributed to the effects of groundwater and compressible clay layer and is related to engineering activities occurring on other construction land. Despite improved water use structures, water level changes in the second and third confined aquifers continue dominating the subsidence development. Unlike previous machine learning approaches, the proposed method can directly handle discrete data and is more adept at predicting severe subsidence changes. This study can be used to plan remediation strategies for regional land subsidence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 133008"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143551900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Machine learning-assisted check dam planning on the Chinese Loess Plateau
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133015
Rui Fan , Nufang Fang , Yi Zeng , Renjie Zong , Qiong Wang , Yi Zhang , Zhihua Shi
Check dams, as an effective soil and water conservation measure, have intercepted billions of tons of eroded sediment on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), significantly reducing the Yellow River’s sediment load. However, uncertainty regarding the optimal sites and appropriate number of check dams for future planning limits their potential ecological and economic benefits. Here, we employ a machine learning model trained on hydrological, topographic, and economic factors to identify suitable watersheds for check dam construction across 437,630 watersheds on the CLP. Additionally, we use the check dam system planning method to determine the appropriate number of check dams for future construction. Our analysis indicates that 14,280 watersheds are suitable for check dam construction, primarily located in the High-plain Gully Region and Loess Hilly and Gully Region of the CLP. In these watersheds, constructing 4,551 key dams and 24,816 small and medium-sized check dams is feasible. Validation using the receiver operating characteristic curve shows an area under the curve value of 0.972, demonstrating excellent model accuracy. Additionally, the Mean Decrease Gini index indicates that, among the numerous factors we considered, the soil erosion rate is the most influential factor in determining optimal watersheds. These findings will assist decision-makers in developing plans for the largest soil and water conservation projects on the CLP, and provide methodological insights for dam siting studies in other regions.
{"title":"Machine learning-assisted check dam planning on the Chinese Loess Plateau","authors":"Rui Fan ,&nbsp;Nufang Fang ,&nbsp;Yi Zeng ,&nbsp;Renjie Zong ,&nbsp;Qiong Wang ,&nbsp;Yi Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhihua Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Check dams, as an effective soil and water conservation measure, have intercepted billions of tons of eroded sediment on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), significantly reducing the Yellow River’s sediment load. However, uncertainty regarding the optimal sites and appropriate number of check dams for future planning limits their potential ecological and economic benefits. Here, we employ a machine learning model trained on hydrological, topographic, and economic factors to identify suitable watersheds for check dam construction across 437,630 watersheds on the CLP. Additionally, we use the check dam system planning method to determine the appropriate number of check dams for future construction. Our analysis indicates that 14,280 watersheds are suitable for check dam construction, primarily located in the High-plain Gully Region and Loess Hilly and Gully Region of the CLP. In these watersheds, constructing 4,551 key dams and 24,816 small and medium-sized check dams is feasible. Validation using the receiver operating characteristic curve shows an area under the curve value of 0.972, demonstrating excellent model accuracy. Additionally, the Mean Decrease Gini index indicates that, among the numerous factors we considered, the soil erosion rate is the most influential factor in determining optimal watersheds. These findings will assist decision-makers in developing plans for the largest soil and water conservation projects on the CLP, and provide methodological insights for dam siting studies in other regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 133015"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143580687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Groundwater-surface water interaction in a river-wetland-aquifer regional system using a coupled simulation-based approach
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133006
Mohammad Mehdi Rasouli , Hamed Ketabchi , Davood Mahmoodzadeh
Assessing the interaction between surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) is crucial to managing water resources effectively and efficiently. It is important to consider all SW-GW factors to assess SW-GW interaction accurately using models. In this study, a coupled model was developed for configuring SW-GW interaction at the regional watershed scale. Through coupled MODFLOW and OWHM (MF-OWHM), simulations were performed to show interaction effects and spatiotemporal variability. The developed methodology was applied to a real case study in Iran’s northwest to quantify the interaction between the Gadar river and Dorgeh wetland with the Naghadeh aquifer. The MF-OWHM adequately simulated the groundwater level (GWL) for the calibration (2001–2011, R2 = 0.84, RMSE = 0.61 m) and validation (2012–2017, R2 = 0.78, RMSE = 0.89 m) periods. The results showed that wetland inflow is mostly from surface water (66.6 %), whereas groundwater is minimal (1.6 %). However, the decline in GWL has led to a reduction in the wetland stage, therefore the wetland stage can serve as an indicator of GWL. The river recharges (43.29 MCM) and drains the aquifer (29.2 MCM) along its path. Examining several hydrological scenarios, it was found that transferring water from the river (0.2 MCM per day) and reducing the groundwater withdrawals (up to 100 %) near the wetland can prevent wetland drying. Conversely, scenarios involving changes in land use upstream of the wetland, dam construction, and increasing withdrawals (up to 100 %) dry the wetland. Changes at the local scale in the SW only affected its local condition while these changes altered the GWL throughout the aquifer (−6.3 to + 3.8 m). Based on these results, SW-GW water resources should be exploited and managed in a way that considers the interactions for sustainable water use.
{"title":"Groundwater-surface water interaction in a river-wetland-aquifer regional system using a coupled simulation-based approach","authors":"Mohammad Mehdi Rasouli ,&nbsp;Hamed Ketabchi ,&nbsp;Davood Mahmoodzadeh","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessing the interaction between surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) is crucial to managing water resources effectively and efficiently. It is important to consider all SW-GW factors to assess SW-GW interaction accurately using models. In this study, a coupled model was developed for configuring SW-GW interaction at the regional watershed scale. Through coupled MODFLOW and OWHM (MF-OWHM), simulations were performed to show interaction effects and spatiotemporal variability. The developed methodology was applied to a real case study in Iran’s northwest to quantify the interaction between the Gadar river and Dorgeh wetland with the Naghadeh aquifer. The MF-OWHM adequately simulated the groundwater level (GWL) for the calibration (2001–2011, R<sup>2</sup> = 0.84, RMSE = 0.61 m) and validation (2012–2017, R<sup>2</sup> = 0.78, RMSE = 0.89 m) periods. The results showed that wetland inflow is mostly from surface water (66.6 %), whereas groundwater is minimal (1.6 %). However, the decline in GWL has led to a reduction in the wetland stage, therefore the wetland stage can serve as an indicator of GWL. The river recharges (43.29 MCM) and drains the aquifer (29.2 MCM) along its path. Examining several hydrological scenarios, it was found that transferring water from the river (0.2 MCM per day) and reducing the groundwater withdrawals (up to 100 %) near the wetland can prevent wetland drying. Conversely, scenarios involving changes in land use upstream of the wetland, dam construction, and increasing withdrawals (up to 100 %) dry the wetland. Changes at the local scale in the SW only affected its local condition while these changes altered the GWL throughout the aquifer (−6.3 to + 3.8 m). Based on these results, SW-GW water resources should be exploited and managed in a way that considers the interactions for sustainable water use.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"656 ","pages":"Article 133006"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143580393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Hydrology
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