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Controls of aquifer geometry and sediment characteristics on land subsidence rates: insights from machine learning in western Iran 含水层几何形状和沉积物特征对地面沉降速率的控制:来自伊朗西部机器学习的见解
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135256
Mojtaba Heidari , Bahman Saedi , Seyed Hosein Jalali , Behnam Saedi
Groundwater-level decline is a primary driver of land subsidence in alluvial aquifer systems, yet quantifying the relative roles of aquifer geometry and sediment composition remains challenging. This study presents an integrated framework combining Sentinel-1 InSAR observations, three-dimensional geological modeling, and machine-learning (ML) techniques to analyze land subsidence in the Asadabad and Chardooli plains, western Iran. Surface deformation time series were derived using the LiCSAR processing chain and decomposed into vertical displacement components. A detailed 3D geological model was developed in RockWorks using borehole logs, geoelectrical resistivity data, and piezometric measurements to characterize sediment thickness and bedrock depth. Bedrock depth and thickness of clayey and loamy soils were incorporated as predictors in ML models to estimate vertical subsidence rates. Spatial thinning and spatial cross-validation were applied to reduce spatial autocorrelation and ensure robust model evaluation.
The results show widespread subsidence affecting more than 60% of the study area, with maximum rates exceeding 180 mm/y in the Asadabad Plain. Feature-importance analysis reveals that bedrock depth is the dominant control on subsidence, followed by clay and clay-rich sediment thickness, whereas sandy units exhibit weaker or inverse relationships. The ML models achieved strong predictive performance, with high coefficients of determination and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies on spatially independent test data, indicating good generalization to previously unobserved areas. The proposed framework improves both predictive accuracy and physical interpretability, offering a transferable approach for subsidence assessment and groundwater-management applications in structurally complex aquifer systems.
在冲积含水层系统中,地下水位下降是地面沉降的主要驱动因素,但量化含水层几何形状和沉积物组成的相对作用仍然具有挑战性。该研究提出了一个综合框架,结合了Sentinel-1 InSAR观测、三维地质建模和机器学习(ML)技术,分析了伊朗西部Asadabad和Chardooli平原的地面沉降。利用LiCSAR处理链导出地表变形时间序列,并将其分解为垂直位移分量。RockWorks利用钻孔测井、地电阻率数据和压力测量数据建立了详细的三维地质模型,以表征沉积物厚度和基岩深度。将基岩深度和黏性和壤土厚度作为ML模型的预测因子来估算垂直沉降速率。采用空间细化和空间交叉验证来降低空间自相关性,确保模型评估的鲁棒性。结果表明,研究区有60%以上的区域受到广泛的沉降影响,Asadabad平原最大沉降速率超过180 mm/y。特征重要性分析表明,基岩深度是控制沉降的主要因素,其次是粘土和富粘土沉积物厚度,而砂质单元与沉降的关系较弱或成反比。机器学习模型具有很强的预测性能,在空间独立的测试数据上具有很高的确定系数和纳什-苏特克利夫效率,表明对以前未观察到的区域有很好的泛化。提出的框架提高了预测精度和物理可解释性,为结构复杂的含水层系统的沉降评估和地下水管理应用提供了一种可转移的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Temporal transferability of spatially derived Manning’s roughness across flood regimes in the Mississippi River 在密西西比河的洪水状态下,空间衍生的曼宁粗糙度的时间可转移性
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135186
Muhammad Bilal Zafar , Mantha S. Phanikumar
Evaluating the temporal transferability of spatially derived roughness across flood regimes is important to balance the use of consistent roughness values for model reliability with adjustments needed to reflect changing conditions and improve model performance. We applied a high-resolution 2D unstructured grid hydrodynamic model to simulate flood events on the Middle Mississippi River focusing on two significant flood years (2011 and 2019) and a year with moderate flooding (2022). Model results were evaluated using gauge data from USGS stations and high-resolution data on flood inundation extents from Planet Labs Dove satellites for 2019 and 2022 to ensure robust evaluation. Simulations for all years used the same set of spatially variable Manning’s roughness (n) values, which remained temporally invariant. The model exhibited excellent performance across all years, with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency values of 0.98–0.99 for water surface elevations and 0.92–0.99 for discharge, as well as strong agreement with observed flood inundation extents. Discrepancies in model performance in 2011, particularly in flood peak magnitude and timing, were attributed to substantial unaccounted inflows (e.g., from tributaries) entering the model domain that were not represented in the boundary conditions. The consistently strong model performance using spatially derived roughness over a decade suggests that reductions in performance are more likely caused by hydrologic forcing (missing flow inputs) rather than by temporal changes in roughness. This study highlights the need for a careful assessment of whether sufficient evidence justifies using time-dependent roughness values and advocates against treating Manning’s n as a free, catch-all parameter.
评估空间衍生粗糙度的时间可转移性对于平衡使用一致的粗糙度值来提高模型可靠性和调整以反映变化的条件和提高模型性能非常重要。我们应用高分辨率二维非结构化网格水动力学模型模拟了密西西比河中部的洪水事件,重点关注两个重大洪水年(2011年和2019年)和一个中度洪水年(2022年)。模型结果使用美国地质勘探局站的测量数据和2019年和2022年行星实验室Dove卫星的洪水淹没范围高分辨率数据进行评估,以确保可靠的评估。所有年份的模拟使用相同的空间变量曼宁粗糙度(n)值,该值保持时间不变。该模型在所有年份均表现出良好的性能,水面高程的Nash-Sutcliffe效率值为0.98-0.99,流量的Nash-Sutcliffe效率值为0.92-0.99,与观测的洪水淹没范围具有较强的一致性。2011年模型性能的差异,特别是在洪峰规模和时间上的差异,归因于大量未计入的流入(例如来自支流)进入模型域,这些流入未在边界条件中表示。在过去十年中,使用空间派生粗糙度的模型性能一直很好,这表明性能的降低更可能是由水文强迫(缺少流量输入)而不是由粗糙度的时间变化引起的。这项研究强调需要仔细评估是否有足够的证据证明使用随时间变化的粗糙度值是合理的,并主张反对将曼宁的n作为一个自由的、包罗万象的参数。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling and assessing eutrophication and antibiotic risks in a lake system under large‑scale water diversion 模拟和评估大规模调水条件下湖泊系统的富营养化和抗生素风险
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135255
Yihan Chen , Shuanggang Hu , Yongjie Yang , Kangping Cui , Chao Zhu , Min Zhang , Youde Zhang , Chen-Xuan Li , Sanjeeb Mohapatra , Peng Jiang , Xuneng Tong
Water diversion projects are widely implemented to address water scarcity, improve water quality, and restore ecological conditions in degraded aquatic systems. This study applies a process-based hydrodynamic-environmental model to investigate the dynamics of eutrophication and the representative antibiotic tetracycline in Chaohu Lake under the influence of the Yangtze–Chaohu Water Diversion Project. To explore the influence of different diversion pathways, two numerical scenarios were developed representing two alternative water diversion options: western and eastern routes. The model was validated against field data, achieving Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values ranging from 0.34 to 0.80 and absolute relative differences between 9.31% and 18.64%, indicating satisfactory performance. Assessment results revealed that tetracycline posed high ecological risks during summer, while nutrient concentrations and eutrophication levels remained within mild to moderate ranges throughout the study period. Comparison of the two scenarios indicated that the western route more effectively reduced ecological risks, yielding annual reductions of 9.12% in total phosphorus, 13.68% in chlorophyll-a, and 11.5% in tetracycline concentrations. This study provides critical insights for optimizing the operation of water diversion projects and supports the sustainable management of aquatic ecosystems, particularly in mitigating the combined threats of eutrophication and antibiotic pollution.
广泛实施调水工程,解决水资源短缺问题,改善水质,恢复退化的水生系统的生态条件。采用基于过程的水动力-环境模型,研究了长江-巢湖调水工程对巢湖水体富营养化及代表性抗生素四环素的影响。为了探讨不同调水路径的影响,我们开发了两个数值情景,分别代表了西线和东线两种可供选择的调水方案。根据现场数据对模型进行了验证,Nash-Sutcliffe效率值在0.34 ~ 0.80之间,绝对相对差值在9.31% ~ 18.64%之间,表明了令人满意的性能。评估结果显示,四环素在夏季具有较高的生态风险,而营养浓度和富营养化水平在整个研究期间保持在轻度至中度范围内。两种方案的对比表明,西线方案更有效地降低了生态风险,总磷、叶绿素-a和四环素浓度的年降幅分别为9.12%、13.68%和11.5%。该研究为优化引水工程的运行提供了重要见解,并支持水生生态系统的可持续管理,特别是在减轻富营养化和抗生素污染的综合威胁方面。
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引用次数: 0
SM2RAIN–dual: a global rainfall fusion product derived from multi-source satellite soil moisture observations SM2RAIN-dual:基于多源卫星土壤湿度观测的全球降雨融合产品
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135261
Linguang Miao , Zushuai Wei , Lingkui Meng , Linyi Li , Wen Zhang , Xi Wang , Hui Wang , Zhe Wang , Zhen Zhang , Luca Brocca
As a core input parameter for hydrological modelling and ecological assessment, long-term stability and high quality of rainfall data are critically important. The SM2RAIN (Soil Moisture to Rain) algorithm, which follows a “bottom-up” theoretical framework, offers unique advantages in estimating cumulative surface rainfall. However, the region-dependent uncertainties among different global remote sensing soil moisture products lead to substantial regional disparities in SM2RAIN-derived rainfall estimates, thereby limiting its global applicability. To address this issue, we selected five widely used soil moisture products—the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP), the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI)—as inputs to the SM2RAIN algorithm. Using in situ observations from 1009 uniformly distributed points across Italy, the United States, Australia, and India, we evaluated the regional performance of the SM2RAIN algorithm driven by different satellite soil moisture products, and developed a rainfall data fusion scheme to generate a global rainfall product. Our results show that: (1) For individual satellite products, SMAP-based rainfall estimates yielded the highest Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R) in the United States, while ASCAT-based estimates achieved the best R performance in Italy. In India, ASCAT also demonstrated notably superior Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) performance; (2) Fusion at the rainfall level outperformed fusion at the soil moisture level. In particular, the combination of SMAP and ASCAT yielded the best results at the rainfall level (median R = 0.62; median NS = 0.38), surpassing the performance of ESA CCI-derived rainfall (median R = 0.55; median NS = 0.34); (3) Using MSWEP as a reference, we generated a fused remote sensing rainfall product—SM2RAIN–Dual—from 2015 to 2022 based on SMAP and ASCAT, featuring a spatiotemporal resolution of 10 km and daily intervals. Triple-collocation (TC) analysis with GPCC and GPM-LR showed that SM2RAIN–Dual achieved lower error variance in 88% of global regions and higher correlation in 34% of regions with respect to the other two products. This study introduces a rainfall-level fusion strategy that overcomes the regional limitations of single-source satellite products, offering a more reliable precipitation input for hydrological modelling in areas with sparse ground-based observations.
作为水文建模和生态评价的核心输入参数,降雨数据的长期稳定性和高质量至关重要。SM2RAIN (Soil Moisture to Rain)算法遵循“自下而上”的理论框架,在估算地表累积降雨量方面具有独特的优势。然而,不同全球遥感土壤湿度产品之间的区域不确定性导致sm2rain估算的降雨量存在较大的区域差异,从而限制了其全球适用性。为了解决这一问题,我们选择了五种广泛使用的土壤湿度产品——土壤湿度主动式和被动式(SMAP)、高级散射计(ASCAT)、高级微波扫描辐射计2 (AMSR2)、土壤湿度和海洋盐度(SMOS)和欧洲航天局气候变化倡议(ESA CCI)——作为SM2RAIN算法的输入。利用意大利、美国、澳大利亚和印度等地1009个均匀分布点的现场观测数据,我们评估了不同卫星土壤湿度产品驱动的SM2RAIN算法的区域性能,并开发了一种降雨数据融合方案来生成全球降雨产品。结果表明:(1)对于单个卫星产品,基于smap的降水估算在美国获得了最高的Pearson相关系数(R),而基于ascat的估算在意大利获得了最佳的R性能。在印度,ASCAT也表现出明显优越的纳什-苏特克利夫效率(NS);(2)降雨水平的融合优于土壤湿度水平的融合。特别是,SMAP和ASCAT结合在降雨量水平上获得了最好的结果(中位数R = 0.62,中位数NS = 0.38),超过了ESA cci衍生降雨量(中位数R = 0.55,中位数NS = 0.34);(3)以MSWEP为参考,基于SMAP和ASCAT生成了2015 - 2022年时空分辨率为10 km、日间隔的融合遥感降水产品- sm2rain - dual。采用GPCC和GPM-LR进行的三重搭配(TC)分析表明,与其他两种产品相比,SM2RAIN-Dual在88%的全球区域实现了更低的误差方差,在34%的区域实现了更高的相关性。本研究引入了一种降雨量融合策略,克服了单源卫星产品的区域限制,为地面观测稀疏地区的水文建模提供了更可靠的降水输入。
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引用次数: 0
Combined effect of tides, irregular waves and beach recovery on groundwater flow and marine-sourced salt transport in coastal unconfined aquifers 潮汐、不规则波浪和海滩恢复对沿海无约束含水层地下水流动和海源盐运移的综合影响
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135258
Weilun Chen , Jun Kong , Jun Wang , Saihua Huang , Huawei Xie , Chao Gao
Based on three generalized beach profiles, this study utilizes a numerical modeling approach to investigate the combined effect of tides and irregular waves on groundwater dynamics and marine-sourced salt transport during beach recovery. Compared to tidal-only conditions, the inclusion of non-overtopping waves amplifies differences between berm profile and storm profile in upper saline plume (USP) features (area and salt content), salt-freshwater mixing zones. With overtopping waves, these differences are further magnified due to high-salinity zones formed by infiltration of ponding water in backshore depressions behind berms. Particle tracking shows that wave action introduces additional deceleration phases in particle movement, leading to more complex travel speed distributions. Furthermore, overtopping waves intensify water and salt exchange across the aquifer, elevating intertidal saline infiltration (ISI) and submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) by up to 1,248% and 182%, respectively. This research underscores the critical role of wave overtopping in enhancing subsurface mixing and solute transport during beach recovery, with important implications for managing seawater intrusion in vulnerable shorelines.
基于三种广义海滩剖面,采用数值模拟方法,研究了潮汐和不规则波浪对海滩恢复过程中地下水动力学和海源盐运移的综合影响。与只有潮汐的条件相比,非过顶波的加入放大了上盐羽(USP)特征(面积和含盐量)、盐-淡水混合带中护堤剖面和风暴剖面的差异。对于过顶波,由于堤后的后岸洼地的积水渗透形成的高盐度区,这些差异进一步扩大。粒子跟踪表明,波动作用在粒子运动中引入了额外的减速阶段,导致更复杂的运动速度分布。此外,漫顶波加强了含水层的水盐交换,使潮间带盐渗透(ISI)和海底地下水排放(SGD)分别提高了1248%和182%。该研究强调了在海滩恢复过程中,波浪过顶在加强地下混合和溶质运输方面的关键作用,对管理脆弱海岸线的海水入侵具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of anthropogenic water dissipation on urban heat island – a case study of Beijing 人为水分耗散对城市热岛的影响——以北京为例
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135227
Zhuoran Luo , Xianzhi Wang , Jiahong Liu , Shanghong Zhang , Li Zhang , Weiwei Shao , Yinxin Ge
In the process of rapid urbanization, anthropogenic water use activities (such as indoor building water use, road sprinkling, and vegetation irrigation, etc.) have become an important part of urban water cycle, and the water vapor dissipation generated by evaporation and transpiration has a significant impact on urban energy balance and local climate. However, the current mainstream urban climate models generally lack a detailed description of urban anthropogenic water dissipation process, which limits their ability to simulate urban heat island effect and hydrological process. This study constructed a calculation model for urban anthropogenic water dissipation, incorporated moisture fluxes from anthropogenic water consumption activities into the UCM and coupled it with the WRF model for simulation. Taking typical periods of summer and winter in Beijing as examples, the influence of anthropogenic water dissipation on the UHI was simulated and analyzed. The results show that anthropogenic water dissipation significantly increases the latent heat flux (LH) and specific humidity in urban areas. In summer, the LH in urban areas increases by about 30 W/m2, and the 2 m average temperature decreases by about 0.7 ℃, thus effectively reducing the intensity of the UHI. Although the anthropogenic water dissipation decreases in winter, it still has a positive effect on maintaining a relatively high specific humidity. The specific humidity in urban regions increases by about 0.12 g/kg. The simulation results are verified by observational data with high accuracy, emphasizing the necessity of incorporating anthropogenic water dissipation processes in urban climate model.
在快速城市化过程中,人为用水活动(如室内建筑用水、道路洒水、植被灌溉等)已成为城市水循环的重要组成部分,蒸发和蒸腾产生的水汽耗散对城市能量平衡和局部气候具有重要影响。然而,目前主流的城市气候模式普遍缺乏对城市人为耗水过程的详细描述,限制了其模拟城市热岛效应和水文过程的能力。本研究构建了城市人为耗水计算模型,将人为耗水活动产生的水分通量纳入UCM,并与WRF模型耦合进行模拟。以北京市夏季和冬季典型时段为例,模拟分析了人为耗水对热岛热岛的影响。结果表明:人为水分耗散显著增加了城市地区的潜热通量和比湿。夏季城区LH增加约30 W/m2, 2m平均气温降低约0.7℃,有效降低了热岛强度。虽然冬季人为耗水减少,但对维持较高的比湿仍有积极作用。城区比湿度增加约0.12 g/kg。模拟结果得到了高精度观测资料的验证,强调了在城市气候模式中考虑人为耗水过程的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Downscaling GRACE(−FO) with mass-conserving XGBoost approach reveals high-resolution patterns and drivers of hydrometeorological-induced mass changes in High Mountain Asia 用质量守恒XGBoost方法降尺度GRACE(−FO)揭示了亚洲高山水文气象引起的质量变化的高分辨率模式和驱动因素
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135235
Haotian Wu , Jiangjun Ran , Natthachet Tangdamrongsub
High Mountain Asia (HMA), the largest extra-polar repository of glaciers, critically regulates water resources for nearly two billion people and regional climate systems. Understanding climate impacts and regional water security requires quantifying regional mass changes at fine spatial scales, but the coarse resolution of GRACE(−FO) satellite data impedes this quantification. To address these limitations, this study proposes an XGBoost downscaling method integrated with mass-conservation correction. After obtaining preliminary downscaling results with low uncertainty and RMSE using the XGBoost model, the weighted forward modeling approach is further applied to enforce mass-conservation correction, thereby enhancing physical consistency. This correction reduces the RMSE of the regional mean time series from 0.85 cm to 0.08 cm, demonstrating that mass conservation effectively improves the downscaled solution. The downscaled solution was validated against the public ASTER-derived global digital elevation model, yielding a mean absolute trend error of only 0.53 Gt/yr, and outperforms existing Mascon solutions. Analysis identifies a pronounced atmospheric oscillation over the Caspian–Black Sea region, which induces interannual variations in moisture transport along the northern branch of the westerlies. This modulation of moisture pathways leads to oscillatory precipitation variability across Central Asia, ultimately giving rise to a distinct 6–7 year interannual mass oscillation in the Tien Shan–Pamir region. The strong correlation (greater than 0.7) between this mass variability and detrended cumulative precipitation highlights the dominant role of large-scale atmospheric circulation in shaping fine-scale hydrometeorological-induced mass changes across HMA.
亚洲高山(HMA)是最大的极地外冰川储存库,对近20亿人口的水资源和区域气候系统起着至关重要的调节作用。了解气候影响和区域水安全需要在精细空间尺度上量化区域质量变化,但GRACE(−FO)卫星数据的粗分辨率阻碍了这种量化。为了解决这些限制,本研究提出了一种集成质量守恒校正的XGBoost降尺度方法。在使用XGBoost模型获得低不确定性和RMSE的初步降尺度结果后,进一步应用加权正演建模方法进行质量守恒校正,从而增强物理一致性。该修正将区域平均时间序列的RMSE从0.85 cm降低到0.08 cm,表明质量守恒有效地改善了缩小后的解。缩小后的解决方案与公开的aster衍生的全球数字高程模型进行了验证,平均绝对趋势误差仅为0.53 Gt/yr,优于现有的Mascon解决方案。分析表明里海-黑海地区有明显的大气振荡,这引起了西风带北部分支的水汽输送的年际变化。这种水汽路径的调制导致了整个中亚的振荡性降水变率,最终导致了天山-帕米尔高原地区明显的6-7年的年际质量振荡。这种质量变率与非趋势累积降水之间的强相关性(大于0.7)突出了大尺度大气环流在形成HMA细尺度水文气象引起的质量变化方面的主导作用。
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引用次数: 0
A two-stage approach to evaluate parameter equifinality in build-up/wash-off stormwater quality models 一种评估累积/冲刷雨水水质模型参数均衡性的两阶段方法
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135234
Zhaokai Dong , Sabrina Jivani , Pradeep Goel , Clare E. Robinson
Build-up/wash-off models are widely used in urban stormwater quality modeling to estimate pollutant loads. However, their empirical structure often introduces equifinality, the presence of multiple parameter sets yielding similar predictions, raising concerns about the robustness and physical interpretability of model outputs. In addition to structural limitations, three key modeling considerations – land use representation, pollutant type, and the temporal scale of parameter calibration – can influence equifinality. This study introduces a novel two-stage calibration-evaluation framework that integrates seasonal parameter pooling and sequential conditional/joint likelihood reweighting to examine equifinality while accounting for these factors. The framework is implemented using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach and applied to simulate total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) loads in a mixed urban land-use catchment in London, ON, Canada. Simulation results indicate that deterministic calibration often yields parameters with limited transferability between events due to parameter equifinality. Land uses with high impervious cover were found to have relatively low equifinality, and seasonal calibration improved parameter generalizability for SRP and TP, but was less effective for TSS. The new proposed framework provides a flexible, performance-driven alternative to deterministic approaches in build-up/wash-off modeling. It enables explicit evaluation of parameter generalizability and predictive reliability under equifinality, supporting robust scenario-based stormwater quality modeling and informed decision-making.
累积/冲刷模型被广泛应用于城市雨水水质模型中,以估计污染物负荷。然而,它们的经验结构经常引入等性,即产生类似预测的多个参数集的存在,引起了对模型输出的鲁棒性和物理可解释性的关注。除了结构限制外,三个关键的建模考虑因素——土地利用表征、污染物类型和参数校准的时间尺度——也会影响均衡性。本研究引入了一种新的两阶段校准评估框架,该框架集成了季节参数池和顺序条件/联合似然重加权,在考虑这些因素的同时检查均衡性。该框架使用广义似然不确定性估计(GLUE)方法实现,并应用于模拟加拿大伦敦混合城市土地利用集水区的总悬浮固体(TSS)、总磷(TP)和可溶性活性磷(SRP)负荷。仿真结果表明,由于参数的均衡性,确定性校准通常产生的参数在事件之间的可转移性有限。高不透水覆盖的土地利用具有相对较低的均衡性,季节性定标提高了SRP和TP参数的可泛化性,但对TSS的效果较差。新提出的框架为构建/冲洗建模的确定性方法提供了一种灵活的、性能驱动的替代方案。它能够在均衡条件下明确评估参数的泛化性和预测可靠性,支持基于场景的强大的暴雨水质建模和知情决策。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling cumulative hydrologic effects of multiple floodplain restoration projects in a 4th-order river channel network 4级河道网中多个洪泛区恢复工程的累积水文效应模拟
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135242
Lucas M. Goodman , Durelle T. Scott , Erich T. Hester
River floodplains provide ecosystems services, including attenuation of flood risks downstream, yet rivers have been disconnected from their floodplains by human actions. River floodplain restoration approaches aim to restore such services. While applications of river restoration aim to reverse widespread degradation in large watersheds, few studies have focused on cumulative effects at the watershed or channel network scale. We used HEC-RAS to evaluate how the extent and location of floodplain restoration influence flood propagation in a generic 4th-order channel network using average parameters from the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We found that flood attenuation and floodplain exchange generally increased with the length of restored channel, but the benefits of individual projects were influenced by project location and amount of restoration already in place. To guide planning, we introduce planning curves relating project placement and extent to watershed outcomes (analogous to traditional design curves that relate project design parameters to site scale outcomes). Our results show coordinated efforts on a watershed scale can pay dividends where leeway for more substantial manipulation exists in lower-order channels that provide benefits both locally and in more constrained river corridors downstream in the network. While restoration provides flood attenuation in most of our simulations, it can unintentionally exacerbate flooding in some cases due to peak flow synchronization. This highlights the importance of future simulations that vary channel network structure, but also managing expectations in practice and the necessity for channel network models to inform permitting and planning.
河流洪泛区提供生态系统服务,包括降低下游的洪水风险,但由于人类活动,河流与洪泛区断开了联系。河漫滩恢复方法旨在恢复这些服务。虽然河流恢复的应用旨在扭转大流域的广泛退化,但很少有研究关注流域或渠道网络尺度上的累积效应。我们使用HEC-RAS,利用切萨皮克湾流域的平均参数,评估了洪泛区恢复的范围和位置如何影响一般四阶河道网络中的洪水传播。我们发现,随着修复河道的长度,洪水衰减和河漫滩交换普遍增加,但个别工程的效益受到工程地点和已修复工程数量的影响。为了指导规划,我们引入了与项目布局和流域结果相关的规划曲线(类似于将项目设计参数与场地规模结果相关的传统设计曲线)。我们的研究结果表明,在流域尺度上的协调努力可以带来红利,因为在低阶渠道中存在更大的操纵余地,这些渠道既可以为当地带来好处,也可以为网络下游更受限制的河流走廊带来好处。虽然在我们的大多数模拟中,恢复提供了洪水衰减,但在某些情况下,由于峰值流量同步,它可能无意中加剧洪水。这突出了未来不同渠道网络结构的模拟的重要性,也强调了在实践中管理期望的重要性,以及渠道网络模型为许可和规划提供信息的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Applicability of the Richards equation in infiltration simulation: A comparative study with the two-phase flow model 理查兹方程在入渗模拟中的适用性:与两相流模型的比较研究
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135194
Hongcheng Zhang , Zhi Li , Chaomeng Dai , Jiajie Zou , Swee Pin Yeap , Kah Hon Leong , Jixiang Li , Jiajun Hu , Mintian Gao
Simulating water infiltration in the vadose zone is crucial for water resource management and environmental remediation, which is typically accomplished by numerically solving the Richards equation (RE). While existing research has acknowledged the limitations of the RE – notably its assumption of infinite air-phase mobility – a systematic assessment of its applicability across diverse hydrogeological conditions remains incomplete. This study evaluates the RE model’s performance in simulating infiltration by benchmarking it against a two-phase (TP) flow model under various boundary conditions, soil-water retention characteristics, and soil moisture states. The findings reveal that the RE model exhibits reliability degradation under saturated or ponding boundary conditions, as well as in scenarios involving high initial soil moisture, fine-textured soils (characterized by low van Genuchten - Mualem parameters n, α, and reduced absolute permeability k). Mechanistically, these scenarios restrict the air escape pathways by either reducing their effective conductance or by topologically sealing the exit routes. This restriction leads to elevated pore-air pressures that impede water infiltration, which the RE model fails to capture, thereby overestimating infiltration. In terms of practical applicability, the RE model likely remains robust wherever high-permeability channels form a percolating network connected to the surface within the region of interest. Conversely, for scenarios involving potential extensive confining layers, three conservative quantitative guidelines are proposed to assess the RE model’s suitability.
模拟水在渗透带中的渗透对水资源管理和环境修复至关重要,通常通过数值求解Richards方程(RE)来实现。虽然现有的研究已经承认了RE的局限性——特别是它对无限气相流动性的假设——但对其在不同水文地质条件下的适用性的系统评估仍然不完整。本研究通过对比两相(TP)流动模型,在不同的边界条件、土壤保水特性和土壤水分状态下,评估了RE模型在模拟入渗方面的性能。研究结果表明,在饱和或池塘边界条件下,以及在高初始土壤湿度、细质地土壤(以低van Genuchten - Mualem参数为特征)和绝对渗透率降低的情况下,RE模型的可靠性下降。从机械上讲,这些情况通过降低其有效电导或通过拓扑密封出口路线来限制空气逃逸路径。这种限制导致孔隙空气压力升高,阻碍了水的渗透,而RE模型未能捕捉到这一点,从而高估了入渗。就实际适用性而言,只要高渗透率通道形成与感兴趣区域内地表相连的渗透网络,RE模型就可能保持稳健。相反,对于涉及潜在广泛限制层的情景,提出了三个保守的定量准则来评估RE模型的适用性。
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Journal of Hydrology
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