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The synergistic response between temperature, flow field and nutrients in the tributary disturbed by the Three Gorges reservoir 受三峡水库扰动的支流中温度、流场和营养物质之间的协同反应
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131636
Xiaosha Zhi , Yanzhe Xu , Lei Chen , Shibo Chen , Ziqi Zhang , Xinyi Meng , Zhenyao Shen

The changes of hydrodynamic conditions and the related eutrophication have been observed among reservoir-impacted regions. However, the evolution and impacts of the hydrodynamic characteristics of tributaries under the interference of the reservoir still need further explanation. The three-dimensional Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model coupling with the watershed hydrological model was built to explore the special flow field of the tributaries in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region. The results showed that there was significant laminar flow pattern driven by water temperature, except during low level and storage periods. During the rising level period, the difference in response to temperature changes between the main stream and tributaries caused the invading flow to converge in bottom layer. The convergence of cold and warm peaks resulted in water masses flowing out in opposite directions from surface layer. During this process, there existed transition from horizontal circulation to vertical circulation, breaking up vertical differences of 0.40 mg/L of nitrogen, aggravating eutrophication in surface layer during the low level period. Instead, the low velocities in stagnant areas did not lead to significant accumulation of nutrients. However, the variation of nutrients in the annular section exhibited a short-term lag compared to the longitudinal profile. Finally, the stepped tides by interrupting the continuous raise processes of water level was more efficient for controlling eutrophication than general regulating rules during the impoundment period. The results could be used for managing eutrophication in similar regions.

在受水库影响的地区已观察到水动力条件的变化和相关的富营养化。然而,支流水动力特性在水库干扰下的演变和影响仍有待进一步解释。为探讨三峡库区支流的特殊流场,建立了与流域水文模型耦合的三维环境流体动力学(EFDC)模型。结果表明,除低水位期和蓄水期外,三峡库区支流均存在明显的水温驱动层流模式。在水位上升期,干流与支流对温度变化的响应差异导致入侵流向底层汇聚。冷峰和暖峰的汇聚导致水团从表层向相反方向流出。在此过程中,水平环流向垂直环流过渡,打破了 0.40 mg/L 氮的垂直差异,加剧了低水位期表层的富营养化。相反,停滞区的低流速并没有导致营养物质的大量积累。不过,环形剖面的营养物质变化与纵向剖面相比表现出短期滞后。最后,在蓄水期间,通过中断水位持续上升过程的阶梯式潮汐比一般调节规则更有效地控制富营养化。这些结果可用于类似地区的富营养化管理。
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引用次数: 0
Contrasting responses of water use efficiency to increasing aridity in alpine shrubs: A modelling perspective 高山灌木用水效率对干旱加剧的不同反应:建模视角
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131595
Menglin Su , Ke Yan , Xiangfu Wang , Jiaxin Jin , Yuanhui Li , Wenting Dong , Haikui Li , Jun Lu , Chuanchuan Zhao , Weifeng Wang

Water use efficiency (WUE), which is strongly related to carbon and water cycles, is crucial for maintaining fragile and sensitive alpine ecosystems. An accurate assessment of the spatial and temporal variations in WUE among alpine shrubs under different aridity levels is essential for quantifying the carbon and water balance in alpine environments. We calibrated the Biome-BGC model using the parameter estimation (PEST) approach with one year of data from an eddy covariance tower and validated the model against three years of carbon–water flux and carbon storage data from 80 biomass sampling sites in Qinghai Province, China. We then simulated the carbon and water cycles of alpine shrubs in Qinghai Province from 1980 to 2019. Using meteorological data from the study area, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations and factors influencing WUE in regions with different aridity levels. The results showed that after optimization using the PEST approach, the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of gross primary productivity (GPP) decreased by 0.58 and 1.05 g C m−2 d−1, respectively, and those of evapotranspiration (ET) decreased by 0.41 and 0.77 mm d−1, respectively. Spatial distribution analysis revealed that the annual mean GPP and ET generally decreased from southeast to northwest in the order of humid, subhumid, semi-arid, arid, and hyper-arid climate regions. In other regions, WUE exhibited a biphasic trend with the aridity index, decreasing under severe dryness but increasing as aridity increased. The primary controlling factor in humid and sub-humid regions is the mean annual temperature, whereas in arid and semi-arid regions it is the mean annual precipitation. These findings are critical for improving the prediction of carbon sequestration and water-holding capacity of alpine shrublands under drought conditions.

水分利用效率(WUE)与碳和水循环密切相关,对于维持脆弱而敏感的高山生态系统至关重要。准确评估不同干旱程度下高山灌木水分利用效率的时空变化对于量化高山环境的碳水平衡至关重要。我们利用涡度协方差塔一年的数据,采用参数估计(PEST)方法校准了Biome-BGC模型,并根据中国青海省80个生物量采样点三年的碳-水通量和碳储量数据对模型进行了验证。然后,我们模拟了 1980 年至 2019 年青海省高山灌木的碳循环和水循环。利用研究地区的气象数据,我们分析了不同干旱程度地区的时空变化和影响水分利用效率的因素。结果表明,采用PEST方法优化后,总初级生产力(GPP)的平均绝对误差(MAE)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别减少了0.58和1.05 g C m-2 d-1,蒸散量(ET)的平均绝对误差和均方根误差分别减少了0.41和0.77 mm d-1。空间分布分析表明,按照湿润、亚湿润、半干旱、干旱和超干旱气候区的顺序,年均 GPP 和 ET 从东南向西北普遍下降。在其他地区,WUE 与干旱指数呈双相趋势,在严重干旱时减少,但随着干旱程度的增加而增加。湿润和亚湿润地区的主要控制因素是年平均气温,而干旱和半干旱地区的主要控制因素是年平均降水量。这些发现对于改进干旱条件下高山灌木林地碳封存和持水能力的预测至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Integrated warm-wet trends over the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades 青藏高原近几十年来的综合暖湿趋势
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131599
Yifeng Yu , Qinglong You , Yuqing Zhang , Zheng Jin , Shichang Kang , Panmao Zhai

The integrated warm-wet trends over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have posed a vital influence on human society and natural ecosystem in recent decades. However, there is currently a lack of in-depth research on the trends over the TP. In this study, CN05.1 high-resolution grid data and ERA5 reanalysis data were analyzed to explore temporal and spatial changes of the integrated warm-wet trends over the TP during 1961-2020 based on temperature, precipitation and the new defined Warm-Wet index (WWI). The results are shown as follow: (1) Temporally, annual surface mean temperature (0.34°C per decade), precipitation (0.73% per decade), latent heat flux (0.08W·m-2 per decade), and sensible heat flux (0.19W·m-2 per decade) have overall increased over the TP. Further, defined by the above climate variables, WWI has increased in the most regions from 1960s to 1980s, then the variations have become relatively mild in the following two decades. (2) Spatially, WWI has finally formed a pattern of significant increase in the semi-humid region and eastern semi-arid region and significant decrease in the humid region, which is similar to precipitation. Noticeably, arid region, semi-arid region, and semi-humid region have all experienced significant increase of WWI but humid regions have experienced decrease. That is, the relatively dry regions over the TP have become warmer-wetter but the relatively wet regions have become warmer-drier. (3) In addition, seasonal asymmetric has been revealed, and winter has experienced the most significant warming-wetting in spite of the smallest values of temperature and precipitation in climatology. (4) Finally, among all independent variables, precipitation contributes the most to the variations of WWI over the entire TP, while temperature is crucial in the arid region and surface heat flux plays an important role in the humid region. Our findings may provide additional insights regarding the risk evaluation over the TP, and the proposed framework to evaluate the trends over different climate zones could also offer a meaningful guide to other regions.

近几十年来,青藏高原的综合暖湿趋势对人类社会和自然生态系统产生了至关重要的影响。然而,目前缺乏对青藏高原暖湿化趋势的深入研究。本研究分析了 CN05.1 高分辨率网格数据和 ERA5 再分析数据,基于温度、降水和新定义的暖湿指数(WWI),探讨了 1961-2020 年间青藏高原综合暖湿趋势的时空变化。结果如下(1) 从时间上看,大洋洲年平均地表温度(每十年 0.34°C)、降水量(每十年 0.73%)、潜热通量(每十年 0.08W-m-2)和显热通量(每十年 0.19W-m-2)总体呈上升趋势。此外,根据上述气候变量的定义,从 20 世纪 60 年代到 80 年代,WWI 在大多数地区都有所增加,随后 20 年的变化相对温和。(2)从空间上看,WWI 最终形成了半湿润地区和东部半干旱地区显著增加、湿润地区显著减少的格局,这与降水相似。值得注意的是,干旱地区、半干旱地区和半湿润地区的 WWI 都有显著增加,而湿润地区则有所减少。也就是说,大陆架上相对干旱的地区变暖变湿,而相对湿润的地区变暖变干。(3) 此外,还发现了季节不对称现象,尽管气候学中的气温和降水值最小,但冬季却经历了最显著的增温-增湿。(4) 最后,在所有自变量中,降水对整个热带降雨带的 WWI 变化贡献最大,而温度在干旱地区至关重要,地表热通量在潮湿地区起着重要作用。我们的研究结果可能会为大洋洲地区的风险评估提供更多的启示,所提出的评估不同气候区趋势的框架也可以为其他地区提供有意义的指导。
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引用次数: 0
Hydrologic responses to wildfires in western Oregon, USA 美国俄勒冈州西部野火引发的水文反应
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131612
Hyunwoo Kang , Ryan P. Cole , Lorrayne Miralha , Jana E. Compton , Kevin D. Bladon

Wildfires can dramatically alter vegetation cover and soil properties across large scales, resulting in substantial shifts in runoff generation, streamflow, and water quality. In September 2020, extensive and high-severity wildfires burned more than 490,000 ha of forest land on the westside of the Cascade Mountain Range in the Pacific Northwest. Much of the area impacted by these fires is critical for the provision of water for downstream aquatic ecosystems, agriculture, hydropower, recreation, and municipal drinking water. We undertook a study to evaluate the effects of four of the large high severity wildfires from 2020 (Riverside, Beachie Creek, Lionshead, and Holiday Farm) on streamflow in nine burned catchments in western Oregon. We also included four unburned, reference catchments in our analysis to enable us to assess post-fire streamflow changes in the burned catchments. To quantify the effects of wildfire on the catchment water balance we used publicly available streamflow data and estimated precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and actual evapotranspiration (ET), using satellite-based meteorological data. We quantified catchment area burned and burn severity with the average differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR). We compared hydrologic conditions for the pre-fire (2001–2020) and post-fire (2021–2022) periods by analyzing catchment runoff ratios, ET ratios (evaporative index: quotient of ET divided by precipitation, referred to as EI hereafter), and Budyko curves. We also used random forest models to explore factors influencing the variability in EI. During the post-fire period, we observed decreases in EI and increases in runoff ratio in the burned catchments. Post-fire declines in EI were positively related to burn severity (R2 = 0.70 in 2021; 0.76 in 2022) and area burned (R2 = 0.91 in 2021; 0.95 in 2022), and were primarily driven by decreases in ET. Declines in ET were highly variable, ranging from 10.7–40.2 % in the first year after the fires and 6.1–32.0 % in the second year after the fires, and were generally related to catchment burn severity and area burned. The greatest increases in runoff (16.1 % in 2021 and 19.8 % in 2022) occurred in the same catchment. These results were reinforced by the random forest analysis, which illustrated the importance of burn severity as a predictor of EI. Interestingly, the variability in changes in EI during the post-fire period was also associated with other geomorphic factors such as catchment slope, elevation, geology, aspect, and pre-fire vegetation type. Since the duration and seasonality of post-fire impacts on hydrology remain uncertain, our findings bring new insights and guide future studies into the post-fire responses on hydrology that are crucial for water and forest management.

野火会极大地改变大范围内的植被覆盖和土壤特性,导致径流生成、溪流和水质发生重大变化。2020 年 9 月,太平洋西北部喀斯喀特山脉西侧发生了大面积的严重野火,烧毁了超过 49 万公顷的林地。受火灾影响的大部分地区对于为下游水生生态系统、农业、水电、娱乐和市政饮用水提供水源至关重要。我们开展了一项研究,以评估 2020 年的四次大规模高严重性野火(河滨、Beachie Creek、狮子头和假日农场)对俄勒冈州西部九个烧毁集水区的溪流的影响。我们还在分析中纳入了四个未烧毁的参考集水区,以便评估烧毁集水区火灾后的溪流变化。为了量化野火对集水区水平衡的影响,我们使用了公开的溪流数据,并利用卫星气象数据估算了降水量、潜在蒸散量 (PET) 和实际蒸散量 (ET)。我们用平均差分归一化燃烧比 (dNBR) 量化了集水区的燃烧面积和燃烧严重程度。我们通过分析集水区径流比、蒸散发比(蒸发指数:蒸散发除以降水量的商,以下简称 EI)和布迪科曲线,比较了火灾前(2001-2020 年)和火灾后(2021-2022 年)的水文条件。我们还使用随机森林模型探讨了影响蒸发指数变化的因素。在火灾后期间,我们观察到被烧毁的集水区 EI 下降,径流比上升。火灾后 EI 的下降与燃烧严重程度(R2 = 0.70,2021 年;0.76,2022 年)和燃烧面积(R2 = 0.91,2021 年;0.95,2022 年)呈正相关,主要是由蒸散发减少引起的。蒸散发的下降变化很大,火灾后第一年的下降幅度为 10.7-40.2%,火灾后第二年的下降幅度为 6.1-32.0%,一般与集水区的燃烧严重程度和燃烧面积有关。同一流域的径流量增幅最大(2021 年为 16.1%,2022 年为 19.8%)。随机森林分析进一步证实了这些结果,说明了燃烧严重程度对预测 EI 的重要性。有趣的是,火灾后 EI 变化的差异性还与其他地貌因素有关,如流域坡度、海拔、地质、地势和火灾前植被类型。由于火灾后对水文影响的持续时间和季节性仍不确定,我们的研究结果为今后研究火灾后对水文的影响提供了新的见解和指导,这对水和森林管理至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
A simple mixing model using electrical conductivity yields robust hydrograph separation in a tropical montane catchment 利用电导率的简单混合模型可在热带山地集水区实现稳健的水文图分离
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131632
Patricio X. Lazo , Giovanny M. Mosquera , Irene Cárdenas , Catalina Segura , Patricio Crespo

Hydrograph separation assessment is crucial to understand stormflow generation at catchments worldwide. Tracer-based methods provide robust estimations of event (or new) and pre-event (or old) water fractions as they account for external and internal catchment hydrological behavior. While models of different mathematical and computational complexity are often used in tracer-based hydrograph separation studies, direct comparisons between those models are limited. Here, we compare hydrograph separation results yielded by the simplest Two-Component Mixing Model (TCMM) and a Tracer-based Streamflow Partitioning ANalysis model (TraSPAN) assumed to provide robust results as it combines conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling with tracers’ mass balance. We carried out the analysis using high temporal frequency (sub-daily to sub-hourly) data of two tracers, Oxygen-18 and Electrical Conductivity (EC), monitored during 37 rainfall-runoff events with different hydrometeorological conditions in a high-Andean páramo catchment located at the Zhurucay Ecohydrological Observatory in southern Ecuador. Both approaches yield similar estimations of event and pre-event water fractions regardless of the tracer used as long as appropriate concentrations of event (Ce) and pre-event (Cp) water for the TCMM are determined. Although the estimate of Ce has little influence with one rainfall sample collected during the event being sufficient to obtain reliable results, results hinge heavily on the estimate of Cp. We found that the TCMM yields similar results than TraSPAN when Cp is represented by the stream water concentration corresponding to a sample collected prior to the beginning of each of the events. We conclude that the combination of a simple framework (TCMM) with sub-hourly EC measurements provides reliable hydrograph separation results when representative Cp samples are used. These findings will allow to lower the logistical and economical resources needed to adequately assess hydrograph separation and to carry out quasi-continuous assessments of flow partitioning with high accuracy in high-Andean páramo catchments.

水文图分离评估对于了解世界各地集水区的暴雨流量生成情况至关重要。基于示踪剂的方法可对事件(或新)水量和事件前(或旧)水量进行可靠估算,因为它们考虑到了外部和内部集水区的水文行为。虽然基于示踪剂的水文图分离研究经常使用不同数学和计算复杂度的模型,但这些模型之间的直接比较却很有限。在此,我们比较了最简单的双分量混合模型(TCMM)和基于示踪剂的水流分区分析模型(TraSPAN)得出的水文图分离结果,前者将概念性降雨-径流模型与示踪剂质量平衡相结合,可提供可靠的结果。我们使用氧-18 和电导率(EC)这两种示踪剂的高时间频率(从亚日到亚小时)数据进行了分析,这些数据是在厄瓜多尔南部朱鲁凯生态水文观测站的高安第斯山丘陵集水区不同水文气象条件下的 37 次降雨-径流事件中监测到的。无论使用哪种示踪剂,只要为 TCMM 确定了适当的事件(Ce)和事件前(Cp)水体浓度,两种方法都能得出类似的事件和事件前水体分数估算值。虽然对 Ce 的估计影响不大,在事件期间收集一个降雨样本就足以获得可靠的结果,但结果在很大程度上取决于对 Cp 的估计。我们发现,当 Cp 由每次事件开始前采集的样本对应的溪水浓度表示时,TCMM 得出的结果与 TraSPAN 相似。我们的结论是,当使用具有代表性的 Cp 样本时,简单框架(TCMM)与亚小时导电率测量值相结合可提供可靠的水文图分离结果。这些研究结果将有助于降低充分评估水文图分离所需的后勤和经济资源,并在高安第斯山脉的 páramo 集水区对流量分区进行高精度的准连续评估。
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引用次数: 0
Metaheuristic optimization of water resources: A case study of the Manas River irrigation district 水资源元优化:玛纳斯河灌区案例研究
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131640
Yue Pan , Hao Tian , Muhammad Arsalan Farid , Xinlin He , Tong Heng , Cecilie Hermansen , Lis Wollesen de Jonge , Fadong Li , Yongli Gao , Lijun Tian , Guang Yang

Irrigated arid oasis areas experience shortages in water resources and imbalances between supply and demand. A rational water resources allocation strategy must be devised to solve such problems; however, this remains a challenging issue to overcome. In this study, a multi-objective water resources optimization model based on a metaheuristic algorithm was established for the Manas River irrigation area in Xinjiang. First, considering future population growth and the development of the ecological environment in arid oasis irrigation areas, a multi-objective water resource optimization allocation model was established. This model was developed to derive the maximum economic benefits from water supply allocation to users, improve the degree to which ecological water demand is met for ecological environmental restoration, and reduce water shortages. The model adheres to the constraints of the total water resources in this area and can be used to effectively solve future water resources supply and demand imbalances in the Manas River irrigation area. Second, a multi-objective beluga whale optimization algorithm was selected to solve multi-objective problems. In contrast to traditional optimization algorithms, the multi-objective beluga whale optimization algorithm does not rely on the knowledge of a specific problem domain, representing a more generalized approach. Instead, this algorithm provides a general framework for searching for solutions, finding an approximate optimal solution, and generating a multi-objective solution set, taking into account the model computation time and domain. Finally, the target solution set obtained after 100 iterations is used as the basis for identifying the optimal solution. The key findings of this study are as follows: (1) The solution sets obtained by applying the multi-objective beluga whale optimization algorithm to solve the multi-objective optimal allocation model for irrigation water resources in each subirrigation district (Shihezi, Mosouwan, and Xiayedi irrigation districts), for four distinct user categories (agriculture, industry, household, and ecological water), consistently adhered to the comprehensive water resources index of the irrigation district. (2) After employing the 2030 projections for the Shihezi irrigation district as an example, the binary comparison methodology helped ascertain the objective weights (0.43, 0.35, and 0.22). The multi-objective fuzzy preference model was then used to shift through the solution set, highlighting the solution with the highest degree of superiority (ui = 0.979) as the optimal solution. (3) Under this scenario, the economic objective of the optimal solution for the Shihezi irrigation district for 2030 is 14,912.91 million yuan, with social and ecological objectives of 1186.77 and 1.22 million m3, respectively. The results of this scenario can serve as a reference for decisi

干旱绿洲灌溉地区水资源短缺,供需失衡。要解决这些问题,必须制定合理的水资源分配策略,但这仍然是一个具有挑战性的问题。本研究针对新疆玛纳斯河灌区建立了基于元搜索算法的多目标水资源优化模型。首先,考虑干旱绿洲灌区未来人口增长和生态环境发展,建立了多目标水资源优化配置模型。该模型的建立旨在从用户供水分配中获取最大经济效益,提高生态环境修复对生态用水需求的满足程度,减少水资源短缺。该模型符合该地区水资源总量的约束条件,可用于有效解决玛纳斯河灌区未来的水资源供需失衡问题。其次,选用多目标白鲸优化算法解决多目标问题。与传统的优化算法相比,多目标白鲸优化算法并不依赖于特定问题领域的知识,代表了一种更通用的方法。相反,该算法提供了一个搜索解、找到近似最优解以及生成多目标解集的通用框架,同时考虑到模型计算时间和领域。最后,以迭代 100 次后获得的目标解集为基础,确定最优解。本研究的主要结论如下:(1)应用多目标白鲸优化算法求解各分灌区(石河子灌区、莫索湾灌区、夏邑地灌区)灌溉水资源多目标优化配置模型,针对四个不同用户类别(农业、工业、生活、生态用水)得到的解集均符合灌区水资源综合指标。(2)以石河子灌区 2030 年预测为例,通过二元比较法确定了目标权重(0.43、0.35 和 0.22)。然后,利用多目标模糊偏好模型对解决方案集进行筛选,将优选度最高的解决方案(ui = 0.979)作为最优解决方案。(3)在此方案下,石河子灌区 2030 年最优解的经济目标为 149.1291 亿元,社会和生态目标分别为 1186.77 和 122 万 m3。该方案的结果可为决策者提供参考,并为干旱绿洲灌区水资源优化配置提供依据。
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引用次数: 0
Comparative study of cloud evolution for rainfall nowcasting using AI-based deep learning algorithms 使用基于人工智能的深度学习算法进行降雨预报的云演变比较研究
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131593
Xianqi Jiang, Ji Chen, Xunlai Chen, Wai-kin Wong, Mingjie Wang, Shuxin Wang
It is a critical need to provide timely and valuable alerts of rainstorms and floods to the public. However, it still remains a world-class challenge to achieve serviceable nowcasting rainstorms with even a short lead time of one hour. Different deep learning algorithms have been adopted to improve nowcasting accuracy. Unfortunately, it is still a question which algorithm is more suitable and how to interpret the rainstorm nowcasting results from deep learning. To this end, this paper focuses on modelling the evolution of rainstorm clouds using deep learning algorithms that can be applied to nowcast rainstorms for the next few hours. Adopting three deep learning algorithms, the study provides a detailed analysis of the nowcasting results of three typical cases of different rainfall intensities from a radar echo mosaic image dataset. The dataset was collected in Guangdong, China, and the analysis interprets the performance differences. The analysis further discloses that an AI-based method can provide more skilful nowcasting for medium and strong rainfall cases than for weak ones. Moreover, a deep learning algorithm trained by the dataset for one region can be skilfully used to nowcast rainfall for another region with a similar weather system. This explains the nowcasting capability of deep learning algorithms as well as their robustness. Besides, experiments on the number of iterations reveal that more iterations do not achieve higher nowcasting accuracy. With improved interpretability of deep learning from the perspective of real-world application in the study, it is expected that the algorithms producing higher accuracy and longer lead time nowcasts will be made possible.
向公众及时提供有价值的暴雨和洪水警报是一项关键需求。然而,要在一小时的短时间内实现可用的暴雨预报,仍然是一项世界级的挑战。为了提高预报精度,人们采用了不同的深度学习算法。遗憾的是,哪种算法更合适,以及如何解读深度学习的暴雨预报结果,仍然是一个问题。为此,本文重点利用深度学习算法模拟暴雨云的演变过程,并将其应用于未来几小时的暴雨预报。本研究采用三种深度学习算法,详细分析了雷达回波镶嵌图像数据集中三种不同降雨强度典型案例的预报结果。数据集采集于中国广东,分析解读了数据集的性能差异。分析进一步揭示了基于人工智能的方法对中雨和强降雨情况的预报比对弱降雨情况的预报更为娴熟。此外,由一个地区的数据集训练出的深度学习算法也可用于对另一个具有类似天气系统的地区进行娴熟的降雨预报。这解释了深度学习算法的预报能力及其鲁棒性。此外,关于迭代次数的实验表明,迭代次数越多,预报精度越低。随着本研究从实际应用的角度提高深度学习的可解释性,有望使算法产生更高精度和更长准备时间的预报成为可能。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating temporal patterns of vertical groundwater flux using multidepth temperature time series: A numerical method 利用多深度温度时间序列估算地下水垂直通量的时间模式:数值方法
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131623
Qiongying Liu, Shunyun Chen, Bo Zhou
Heat has become an increasingly utilized hydrological tracer for quantifying groundwater flow due to its universal distribution and environmental friendliness. Estimating time-varying groundwater flux is of great significance for understanding the transient behavior of the groundwater system. Most heat tracing models for acquiring transient water flux were specially designed for the near-surface medium that rely on periodic temperature signals, but few can be applicable to deep groundwater flux estimates. Models estimating flux in deep aquifers usually assume constant flow velocity over time, which cannot delineate the temporal patterns of groundwater flow. Here, we propose a numerical approach for automatically quantifying transient vertical groundwater flux from temperature time series at multiple depths. The approach can be applied to deep as well as near-surface homogeneous and heterogeneous media with flexible boundary conditions. The accuracy of the approach is demonstrated through three synthetic experiments and one real case test using data from a field site. Our approach shows fine temporal resolution for rapidly changing flow under various conditions and accurate estimates for a wide range of flow velocities. We conduct analyses to investigate the influence of different strategies to give an initial temperature profile on flux estimates. The results highlight the necessity of accurately giving an initial temperature profile under transient conditions. This study improves the heat tracing approach for estimating time-varying water fluxes, especially in a deep well, which would be beneficial to monitoring and managing groundwater flows with the development of high-resolution temperature observation technology.
由于热量的普遍分布和环境友好性,热量已成为量化地下水流的一种越来越常用的水文示踪剂。估算时变地下水通量对于了解地下水系统的瞬态行为具有重要意义。大多数获取瞬态水通量的热追踪模型都是专为近地表介质设计的,依赖于周期性的温度信号,但很少有模型能适用于深层地下水通量估算。估算深含水层通量的模型通常假定流速随时间恒定不变,这就无法划分地下水流动的时间模式。在此,我们提出了一种数值方法,可根据多个深度的温度时间序列自动量化瞬态垂直地下水通量。该方法可应用于深层以及具有灵活边界条件的近地表均质和异质介质。通过三个合成实验和一个使用现场数据的实际案例测试,证明了该方法的准确性。我们的方法对各种条件下瞬息万变的水流显示出精细的时间分辨率,并能对各种流速进行精确估算。我们进行了分析,以研究不同的初始温度曲线给出策略对流量估算的影响。结果表明,在瞬态条件下,有必要准确给出初始温度曲线。这项研究改进了用于估算时变水流量的热追踪方法,特别是在深井中,这将有利于随着高分辨率温度观测技术的发展对地下水流进行监测和管理。
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引用次数: 0
Improved soil moisture estimation and detection of irrigation signal by incorporating SMAP soil moisture into the Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS) 通过将 SMAP 土壤湿度纳入印度土地数据同化系统(ILDAS),改进土壤湿度估算和灌溉信号检测
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131581
Arijit Chakraborty , Manabendra Saharia , Sumedha Chakma , Dharmendra Kumar Pandey , Kondapalli Niranjan Kumar , Praveen K. Thakur , Sujay Kumar , Augusto Getirana

Land surface models have facilitated the estimation of soil moisture over a range of spatiotemporal scales. However, limitations in model parameterization and under-representation of anthropogenic processes restrict their ability to estimate local-scale soil moisture variability, especially over irrigated areas. Assimilation of satellite-based soil moisture retrievals into land surface models can be a viable approach to overcome these constraints, specially over highly irrigated countries such as India, where such applications are rare. Additionally, large-scale validation of modeled soil moisture has been limited over India till now due to lack of a representative station network. By assimilating Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP)-based estimates into the state-of-the-art Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS) and combining with a new soil moisture station network of more than 200 stations, this study demonstrates improved soil moisture estimations and capture of irrigation signals over the region. The Noah-MP land surface model is forced by multiple local and global meteorological datasets and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used for assimilation of soil moisture. Comparison of open-loop and data assimilated soil moisture against station soil moisture data shows relative spatial mean improvement of 0.0178 in correlation and 0.0029 m3/m3 in RMSE. Further statistical comparison with in-situ data has also shown better results over most of the stations, as evident from improved correlations and reduced unbiased RMSE after assimilation. Finally, the climatology of soil moisture over the different irrigation fractions reveals that data assimilated outputs over irrigated grid cells tend to have higher soil moisture during dry winter season, demonstrating the ability to capture irrigation signals. These findings quantify the value of data assimilation in improving soil moisture estimates and the ability to capture unmodeled processes such as irrigation, which lays the science groundwork for upcoming space missions such as NASA ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR).

地表模型为估算一系列时空尺度的土壤水分提供了便利。然而,模型参数化的局限性和对人为过程的反映不足限制了其估算局部尺度土壤水分变化的能力,尤其是在灌溉区。将基于卫星的土壤水分检索同化到地表模型中是克服这些限制的可行方法,特别是在印度等高度灌溉国家,此类应用非常罕见。此外,由于缺乏具有代表性的站点网络,迄今为止在印度对模型土壤水分的大规模验证还很有限。通过将基于土壤水分主动被动(SMAP)的估算结果同化到最先进的印度陆地数据同化系统(ILDAS)中,并与由 200 多个站点组成的新土壤水分站点网络相结合,本研究展示了改进的土壤水分估算结果,并捕捉到了该地区的灌溉信号。Noah-MP 陆面模型由多个本地和全球气象数据集驱动,并使用集合卡尔曼滤波器(EnKF)进行土壤水分同化。将开环和数据同化后的土壤水分与观测站土壤水分数据进行比较,结果显示相关性的空间平均值提高了 0.0178,均方根误差降低了 0.0029 m/m。与原位数据的进一步统计比较也显示,同化后的相关性提高,无偏均方根误差减小,大多数站点的结果都更好。最后,不同灌溉分区的土壤湿度气候学显示,灌溉网格单元的数据同化输出往往在冬季干旱季节具有较高的土壤湿度,这证明了捕捉灌溉信号的能力。这些发现量化了数据同化在改进土壤水分估算方面的价值,以及捕捉灌溉等未建模过程的能力,这为即将开展的太空任务(如 NASA ISRO 合成孔径雷达 (NISAR))奠定了科学基础。
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引用次数: 0
Climate-informed flood risk mapping using a GAN-based approach (ExGAN) 利用基于 GAN 的方法绘制气候信息洪水风险地图(ExGAN)
IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131487
Rafia Belhajjam , Abdelaziz Chaqdid , Naji Yebari , Mohammed Seaid , Nabil El Moçayd

This study develops a class of robust models for flood risk mapping in highly vulnerable regions by focusing on accurately depicting extreme precipitation patterns aligned with regional climates. By implementing sophisticated hydrodynamics modeling and advanced probabilistic approaches, the present work underscores the efficacy of physical-based methodologies in the flood risk assessment. We propose a machine learning based ExGAN to address the challenge of synthesizing extreme precipitation scenarios which faithfully capture the nuances of local climatology. It is expected that through refined temporal disaggregation, the ExGAN approach exhibits exceptional proficiency in replicating a diverse spectrum of extreme precipitation patterns specific to the vulnerable region under scrutiny. Therefore, using these synthesized scenarios as inputs in a meticulously calibrated hydrological model would enable a comprehensive and detailed flood risk mapping exercise. To demonstrate the robustness of the developed mode, we perform a rigorous testing and validation within the highly susceptible Martil river basin, situated in the northern Mediterranean region of Morocco. The obtained results confirm that extending return periods would provide invaluable insights into the expanding geographical expanse of at-risk areas, clarifying the evolving landscape of vulnerability rather than merely amplifying inherent risk levels. Comparisons against the conventional Monte-Carlo sampling are also carried out in this study and the obtained results highlight significant overestimations within the latter, emphasizing the imperative need to account for diverse uncertainties beyond the basic sampling strategies within the realm of hydrodynamic modeling.

本研究开发了一类用于绘制高度脆弱地区洪水风险图的稳健模型,重点是准确描绘与区域气候相一致的极端降水模式。通过实施复杂的水动力学建模和先进的概率方法,本研究强调了基于物理的方法在洪水风险评估中的功效。我们提出了一种基于机器学习的 ExGAN,以应对综合极端降水情景的挑战,这种情景能够忠实地捕捉当地气候的细微差别。预计通过精细的时间分解,ExGAN 方法将在复制脆弱地区特有的各种极端降水模式方面表现出非凡的能力。因此,将这些综合情景作为精心校准的水文模型的输入,就能绘制出全面而详细的洪水风险图。为了证明所开发模式的稳健性,我们在摩洛哥地中海北部地区极易发生洪灾的马蒂尔河流域进行了严格的测试和验证。获得的结果证实,延长重现期可为不断扩大的高风险地区提供宝贵的洞察力,澄清不断变化的脆弱性状况,而不仅仅是扩大固有的风险水平。本研究还对传统的蒙特卡洛取样进行了比较,结果表明后者的估计值明显偏高,强调了在水动力建模领域,除了基本的取样策略外,还必须考虑各种不确定因素。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Hydrology
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