Groundwater-level decline is a primary driver of land subsidence in alluvial aquifer systems, yet quantifying the relative roles of aquifer geometry and sediment composition remains challenging. This study presents an integrated framework combining Sentinel-1 InSAR observations, three-dimensional geological modeling, and machine-learning (ML) techniques to analyze land subsidence in the Asadabad and Chardooli plains, western Iran. Surface deformation time series were derived using the LiCSAR processing chain and decomposed into vertical displacement components. A detailed 3D geological model was developed in RockWorks using borehole logs, geoelectrical resistivity data, and piezometric measurements to characterize sediment thickness and bedrock depth. Bedrock depth and thickness of clayey and loamy soils were incorporated as predictors in ML models to estimate vertical subsidence rates. Spatial thinning and spatial cross-validation were applied to reduce spatial autocorrelation and ensure robust model evaluation.
The results show widespread subsidence affecting more than 60% of the study area, with maximum rates exceeding 180 mm/y in the Asadabad Plain. Feature-importance analysis reveals that bedrock depth is the dominant control on subsidence, followed by clay and clay-rich sediment thickness, whereas sandy units exhibit weaker or inverse relationships. The ML models achieved strong predictive performance, with high coefficients of determination and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies on spatially independent test data, indicating good generalization to previously unobserved areas. The proposed framework improves both predictive accuracy and physical interpretability, offering a transferable approach for subsidence assessment and groundwater-management applications in structurally complex aquifer systems.
{"title":"Controls of aquifer geometry and sediment characteristics on land subsidence rates: insights from machine learning in western Iran","authors":"Mojtaba Heidari , Bahman Saedi , Seyed Hosein Jalali , Behnam Saedi","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135256","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135256","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Groundwater-level decline is a primary driver of land subsidence in alluvial aquifer systems, yet quantifying the relative roles of aquifer geometry and sediment composition remains challenging. This study presents an integrated framework combining Sentinel-1 InSAR observations, three-dimensional geological modeling, and machine-learning (ML) techniques to analyze land subsidence in the Asadabad and Chardooli plains, western Iran. Surface deformation time series were derived using the LiCSAR processing chain and decomposed into vertical displacement components. A detailed 3D geological model was developed in RockWorks using borehole logs, geoelectrical resistivity data, and piezometric measurements to characterize sediment thickness and bedrock depth. Bedrock depth and thickness of clayey and loamy soils were incorporated as predictors in ML models to estimate vertical subsidence rates. Spatial thinning and spatial cross-validation were applied to reduce spatial autocorrelation and ensure robust model evaluation.</div><div>The results show widespread subsidence affecting more than 60% of the study area, with maximum rates exceeding 180 mm/y in the Asadabad Plain. Feature-importance analysis reveals that bedrock depth is the dominant control on subsidence, followed by clay and clay-rich sediment thickness, whereas sandy units exhibit weaker or inverse relationships. The ML models achieved strong predictive performance, with high coefficients of determination and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies on spatially independent test data, indicating good generalization to previously unobserved areas. The proposed framework improves both predictive accuracy and physical interpretability, offering a transferable approach for subsidence assessment and groundwater-management applications in structurally complex aquifer systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"671 ","pages":"Article 135256"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-26DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135186
Muhammad Bilal Zafar , Mantha S. Phanikumar
Evaluating the temporal transferability of spatially derived roughness across flood regimes is important to balance the use of consistent roughness values for model reliability with adjustments needed to reflect changing conditions and improve model performance. We applied a high-resolution 2D unstructured grid hydrodynamic model to simulate flood events on the Middle Mississippi River focusing on two significant flood years (2011 and 2019) and a year with moderate flooding (2022). Model results were evaluated using gauge data from USGS stations and high-resolution data on flood inundation extents from Planet Labs Dove satellites for 2019 and 2022 to ensure robust evaluation. Simulations for all years used the same set of spatially variable Manning’s roughness (n) values, which remained temporally invariant. The model exhibited excellent performance across all years, with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency values of 0.98–0.99 for water surface elevations and 0.92–0.99 for discharge, as well as strong agreement with observed flood inundation extents. Discrepancies in model performance in 2011, particularly in flood peak magnitude and timing, were attributed to substantial unaccounted inflows (e.g., from tributaries) entering the model domain that were not represented in the boundary conditions. The consistently strong model performance using spatially derived roughness over a decade suggests that reductions in performance are more likely caused by hydrologic forcing (missing flow inputs) rather than by temporal changes in roughness. This study highlights the need for a careful assessment of whether sufficient evidence justifies using time-dependent roughness values and advocates against treating Manning’s n as a free, catch-all parameter.
{"title":"Temporal transferability of spatially derived Manning’s roughness across flood regimes in the Mississippi River","authors":"Muhammad Bilal Zafar , Mantha S. Phanikumar","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135186","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135186","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Evaluating the temporal transferability of spatially derived roughness across flood regimes is important to balance the use of consistent roughness values for model reliability with adjustments needed to reflect changing conditions and improve model performance. We applied a high-resolution 2D unstructured grid hydrodynamic model to simulate flood events on the Middle Mississippi River focusing on two significant flood years (2011 and 2019) and a year with moderate flooding (2022). Model results were evaluated using gauge data from USGS stations and high-resolution data on flood inundation extents from Planet Labs Dove satellites for 2019 and 2022 to ensure robust evaluation. Simulations for all years used the same set of spatially variable Manning’s roughness (<em>n</em>) values, which remained temporally invariant. The model exhibited excellent performance across all years, with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency values of 0.98–0.99 for water surface elevations and 0.92–0.99 for discharge, as well as strong agreement with observed flood inundation extents. Discrepancies in model performance in 2011, particularly in flood peak magnitude and timing, were attributed to substantial unaccounted inflows (e.g., from tributaries) entering the model domain that were not represented in the boundary conditions. The consistently strong model performance using spatially derived roughness over a decade suggests that reductions in performance are more likely caused by hydrologic forcing (missing flow inputs) rather than by temporal changes in roughness. This study highlights the need for a careful assessment of whether sufficient evidence justifies using time-dependent roughness values and advocates against treating Manning’s <em>n</em> as a free, catch-all parameter.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"671 ","pages":"Article 135186"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147334604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-03-06DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135255
Yihan Chen , Shuanggang Hu , Yongjie Yang , Kangping Cui , Chao Zhu , Min Zhang , Youde Zhang , Chen-Xuan Li , Sanjeeb Mohapatra , Peng Jiang , Xuneng Tong
Water diversion projects are widely implemented to address water scarcity, improve water quality, and restore ecological conditions in degraded aquatic systems. This study applies a process-based hydrodynamic-environmental model to investigate the dynamics of eutrophication and the representative antibiotic tetracycline in Chaohu Lake under the influence of the Yangtze–Chaohu Water Diversion Project. To explore the influence of different diversion pathways, two numerical scenarios were developed representing two alternative water diversion options: western and eastern routes. The model was validated against field data, achieving Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values ranging from 0.34 to 0.80 and absolute relative differences between 9.31% and 18.64%, indicating satisfactory performance. Assessment results revealed that tetracycline posed high ecological risks during summer, while nutrient concentrations and eutrophication levels remained within mild to moderate ranges throughout the study period. Comparison of the two scenarios indicated that the western route more effectively reduced ecological risks, yielding annual reductions of 9.12% in total phosphorus, 13.68% in chlorophyll-a, and 11.5% in tetracycline concentrations. This study provides critical insights for optimizing the operation of water diversion projects and supports the sustainable management of aquatic ecosystems, particularly in mitigating the combined threats of eutrophication and antibiotic pollution.
{"title":"Modelling and assessing eutrophication and antibiotic risks in a lake system under large‑scale water diversion","authors":"Yihan Chen , Shuanggang Hu , Yongjie Yang , Kangping Cui , Chao Zhu , Min Zhang , Youde Zhang , Chen-Xuan Li , Sanjeeb Mohapatra , Peng Jiang , Xuneng Tong","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135255","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135255","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Water diversion projects are widely implemented to address water scarcity, improve water quality, and restore ecological conditions in degraded aquatic systems. This study applies a process-based hydrodynamic-environmental model to investigate the dynamics of eutrophication and the representative antibiotic tetracycline in Chaohu Lake under the influence of the Yangtze–Chaohu Water Diversion Project. To explore the influence of different diversion pathways, two numerical scenarios were developed representing two alternative water diversion options: western and eastern routes. The model was validated against field data, achieving Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values ranging from 0.34 to 0.80 and absolute relative differences between 9.31% and 18.64%, indicating satisfactory performance. Assessment results revealed that tetracycline posed high ecological risks during summer, while nutrient concentrations and eutrophication levels remained within mild to moderate ranges throughout the study period. Comparison of the two scenarios indicated that the western route more effectively reduced ecological risks, yielding annual reductions of 9.12% in total phosphorus, 13.68% in chlorophyll-a, and 11.5% in tetracycline concentrations. This study provides critical insights for optimizing the operation of water diversion projects and supports the sustainable management of aquatic ecosystems, particularly in mitigating the combined threats of eutrophication and antibiotic pollution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"671 ","pages":"Article 135255"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-03-07DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135261
Linguang Miao , Zushuai Wei , Lingkui Meng , Linyi Li , Wen Zhang , Xi Wang , Hui Wang , Zhe Wang , Zhen Zhang , Luca Brocca
As a core input parameter for hydrological modelling and ecological assessment, long-term stability and high quality of rainfall data are critically important. The SM2RAIN (Soil Moisture to Rain) algorithm, which follows a “bottom-up” theoretical framework, offers unique advantages in estimating cumulative surface rainfall. However, the region-dependent uncertainties among different global remote sensing soil moisture products lead to substantial regional disparities in SM2RAIN-derived rainfall estimates, thereby limiting its global applicability. To address this issue, we selected five widely used soil moisture products—the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP), the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI)—as inputs to the SM2RAIN algorithm. Using in situ observations from 1009 uniformly distributed points across Italy, the United States, Australia, and India, we evaluated the regional performance of the SM2RAIN algorithm driven by different satellite soil moisture products, and developed a rainfall data fusion scheme to generate a global rainfall product. Our results show that: (1) For individual satellite products, SMAP-based rainfall estimates yielded the highest Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R) in the United States, while ASCAT-based estimates achieved the best R performance in Italy. In India, ASCAT also demonstrated notably superior Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) performance; (2) Fusion at the rainfall level outperformed fusion at the soil moisture level. In particular, the combination of SMAP and ASCAT yielded the best results at the rainfall level (median R = 0.62; median NS = 0.38), surpassing the performance of ESA CCI-derived rainfall (median R = 0.55; median NS = 0.34); (3) Using MSWEP as a reference, we generated a fused remote sensing rainfall product—SM2RAIN–Dual—from 2015 to 2022 based on SMAP and ASCAT, featuring a spatiotemporal resolution of 10 km and daily intervals. Triple-collocation (TC) analysis with GPCC and GPM-LR showed that SM2RAIN–Dual achieved lower error variance in 88% of global regions and higher correlation in 34% of regions with respect to the other two products. This study introduces a rainfall-level fusion strategy that overcomes the regional limitations of single-source satellite products, offering a more reliable precipitation input for hydrological modelling in areas with sparse ground-based observations.
{"title":"SM2RAIN–dual: a global rainfall fusion product derived from multi-source satellite soil moisture observations","authors":"Linguang Miao , Zushuai Wei , Lingkui Meng , Linyi Li , Wen Zhang , Xi Wang , Hui Wang , Zhe Wang , Zhen Zhang , Luca Brocca","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135261","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135261","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a core input parameter for hydrological modelling and ecological assessment, long-term stability and high quality of rainfall data are critically important. The SM2RAIN (Soil Moisture to Rain) algorithm, which follows a “bottom-up” theoretical framework, offers unique advantages in estimating cumulative surface rainfall. However, the region-dependent uncertainties among different global remote sensing soil moisture products lead to substantial regional disparities in SM2RAIN-derived rainfall estimates, thereby limiting its global applicability. To address this issue, we selected five widely used soil moisture products—the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP), the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI)—as inputs to the SM2RAIN algorithm. Using in situ observations from 1009 uniformly distributed points across Italy, the United States, Australia, and India, we evaluated the regional performance of the SM2RAIN algorithm driven by different satellite soil moisture products, and developed a rainfall data fusion scheme to generate a global rainfall product. Our results show that: (1) For individual satellite products, SMAP-based rainfall estimates yielded the highest Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R) in the United States, while ASCAT-based estimates achieved the best R performance in Italy. In India, ASCAT also demonstrated notably superior Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) performance; (2) Fusion at the rainfall level outperformed fusion at the soil moisture level. In particular, the combination of SMAP and ASCAT yielded the best results at the rainfall level (median R = 0.62; median NS = 0.38), surpassing the performance of ESA CCI-derived rainfall (median R = 0.55; median NS = 0.34); (3) Using MSWEP as a reference, we generated a fused remote sensing rainfall product—SM2RAIN–Dual—from 2015 to 2022 based on SMAP and ASCAT, featuring a spatiotemporal resolution of 10 km and daily intervals. Triple-collocation (TC) analysis with GPCC and GPM-LR showed that SM2RAIN–Dual achieved lower error variance in 88% of global regions and higher correlation in 34% of regions with respect to the other two products. This study introduces a rainfall-level fusion strategy that overcomes the regional limitations of single-source satellite products, offering a more reliable precipitation input for hydrological modelling in areas with sparse ground-based observations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"671 ","pages":"Article 135261"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-03-06DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135258
Weilun Chen , Jun Kong , Jun Wang , Saihua Huang , Huawei Xie , Chao Gao
Based on three generalized beach profiles, this study utilizes a numerical modeling approach to investigate the combined effect of tides and irregular waves on groundwater dynamics and marine-sourced salt transport during beach recovery. Compared to tidal-only conditions, the inclusion of non-overtopping waves amplifies differences between berm profile and storm profile in upper saline plume (USP) features (area and salt content), salt-freshwater mixing zones. With overtopping waves, these differences are further magnified due to high-salinity zones formed by infiltration of ponding water in backshore depressions behind berms. Particle tracking shows that wave action introduces additional deceleration phases in particle movement, leading to more complex travel speed distributions. Furthermore, overtopping waves intensify water and salt exchange across the aquifer, elevating intertidal saline infiltration (ISI) and submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) by up to 1,248% and 182%, respectively. This research underscores the critical role of wave overtopping in enhancing subsurface mixing and solute transport during beach recovery, with important implications for managing seawater intrusion in vulnerable shorelines.
{"title":"Combined effect of tides, irregular waves and beach recovery on groundwater flow and marine-sourced salt transport in coastal unconfined aquifers","authors":"Weilun Chen , Jun Kong , Jun Wang , Saihua Huang , Huawei Xie , Chao Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135258","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135258","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on three generalized beach profiles, this study utilizes a numerical modeling approach to investigate the combined effect of tides and irregular waves on groundwater dynamics and marine-sourced salt transport during beach recovery. Compared to tidal-only conditions, the inclusion of non-overtopping waves amplifies differences between berm profile and storm profile in upper saline plume (USP) features (area and salt content), salt-freshwater mixing zones. With overtopping waves, these differences are further magnified due to high-salinity zones formed by infiltration of ponding water in backshore depressions behind berms. Particle tracking shows that wave action introduces additional deceleration phases in particle movement, leading to more complex travel speed distributions. Furthermore, overtopping waves intensify water and salt exchange across the aquifer, elevating intertidal saline infiltration (ISI) and submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) by up to 1,248% and 182%, respectively. This research underscores the critical role of wave overtopping in enhancing subsurface mixing and solute transport during beach recovery, with important implications for managing seawater intrusion in vulnerable shorelines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"671 ","pages":"Article 135258"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-28DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135227
Zhuoran Luo , Xianzhi Wang , Jiahong Liu , Shanghong Zhang , Li Zhang , Weiwei Shao , Yinxin Ge
In the process of rapid urbanization, anthropogenic water use activities (such as indoor building water use, road sprinkling, and vegetation irrigation, etc.) have become an important part of urban water cycle, and the water vapor dissipation generated by evaporation and transpiration has a significant impact on urban energy balance and local climate. However, the current mainstream urban climate models generally lack a detailed description of urban anthropogenic water dissipation process, which limits their ability to simulate urban heat island effect and hydrological process. This study constructed a calculation model for urban anthropogenic water dissipation, incorporated moisture fluxes from anthropogenic water consumption activities into the UCM and coupled it with the WRF model for simulation. Taking typical periods of summer and winter in Beijing as examples, the influence of anthropogenic water dissipation on the UHI was simulated and analyzed. The results show that anthropogenic water dissipation significantly increases the latent heat flux (LH) and specific humidity in urban areas. In summer, the LH in urban areas increases by about 30 W/m2, and the 2 m average temperature decreases by about 0.7 ℃, thus effectively reducing the intensity of the UHI. Although the anthropogenic water dissipation decreases in winter, it still has a positive effect on maintaining a relatively high specific humidity. The specific humidity in urban regions increases by about 0.12 g/kg. The simulation results are verified by observational data with high accuracy, emphasizing the necessity of incorporating anthropogenic water dissipation processes in urban climate model.
{"title":"Influence of anthropogenic water dissipation on urban heat island – a case study of Beijing","authors":"Zhuoran Luo , Xianzhi Wang , Jiahong Liu , Shanghong Zhang , Li Zhang , Weiwei Shao , Yinxin Ge","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135227","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135227","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the process of rapid urbanization, anthropogenic water use activities (such as indoor building water use, road sprinkling, and vegetation irrigation, etc.) have become an important part of urban water cycle, and the water vapor dissipation generated by evaporation and transpiration has a significant impact on urban energy balance and local climate. However, the current mainstream urban climate models generally lack a detailed description of urban anthropogenic water dissipation process, which limits their ability to simulate urban heat island effect and hydrological process. This study constructed a calculation model for urban anthropogenic water dissipation, incorporated moisture fluxes from anthropogenic water consumption activities into the UCM and coupled it with the WRF model for simulation. Taking typical periods of summer and winter in Beijing as examples, the influence of anthropogenic water dissipation on the UHI was simulated and analyzed. The results show that anthropogenic water dissipation significantly increases the latent heat flux (LH) and specific humidity in urban areas. In summer, the LH in urban areas increases by about 30 W/m<sup>2</sup>, and the 2 m average temperature decreases by about 0.7 ℃, thus effectively reducing the intensity of the UHI. Although the anthropogenic water dissipation decreases in winter, it still has a positive effect on maintaining a relatively high specific humidity. The specific humidity in urban regions increases by about 0.12 g/kg. The simulation results are verified by observational data with high accuracy, emphasizing the necessity of incorporating anthropogenic water dissipation processes in urban climate model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"671 ","pages":"Article 135227"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147334595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-03-03DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135235
Haotian Wu , Jiangjun Ran , Natthachet Tangdamrongsub
High Mountain Asia (HMA), the largest extra-polar repository of glaciers, critically regulates water resources for nearly two billion people and regional climate systems. Understanding climate impacts and regional water security requires quantifying regional mass changes at fine spatial scales, but the coarse resolution of GRACE(−FO) satellite data impedes this quantification. To address these limitations, this study proposes an XGBoost downscaling method integrated with mass-conservation correction. After obtaining preliminary downscaling results with low uncertainty and RMSE using the XGBoost model, the weighted forward modeling approach is further applied to enforce mass-conservation correction, thereby enhancing physical consistency. This correction reduces the RMSE of the regional mean time series from 0.85 cm to 0.08 cm, demonstrating that mass conservation effectively improves the downscaled solution. The downscaled solution was validated against the public ASTER-derived global digital elevation model, yielding a mean absolute trend error of only 0.53 Gt/yr, and outperforms existing Mascon solutions. Analysis identifies a pronounced atmospheric oscillation over the Caspian–Black Sea region, which induces interannual variations in moisture transport along the northern branch of the westerlies. This modulation of moisture pathways leads to oscillatory precipitation variability across Central Asia, ultimately giving rise to a distinct 6–7 year interannual mass oscillation in the Tien Shan–Pamir region. The strong correlation (greater than 0.7) between this mass variability and detrended cumulative precipitation highlights the dominant role of large-scale atmospheric circulation in shaping fine-scale hydrometeorological-induced mass changes across HMA.
{"title":"Downscaling GRACE(−FO) with mass-conserving XGBoost approach reveals high-resolution patterns and drivers of hydrometeorological-induced mass changes in High Mountain Asia","authors":"Haotian Wu , Jiangjun Ran , Natthachet Tangdamrongsub","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135235","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135235","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High Mountain Asia (HMA), the largest extra-polar repository of glaciers, critically regulates water resources for nearly two billion people and regional climate systems. Understanding climate impacts and regional water security requires quantifying regional mass changes at fine spatial scales, but the coarse resolution of GRACE(−FO) satellite data impedes this quantification. To address these limitations, this study proposes an XGBoost downscaling method integrated with mass-conservation correction. After obtaining preliminary downscaling results with low uncertainty and RMSE using the XGBoost model, the weighted forward modeling approach is further applied to enforce mass-conservation correction, thereby enhancing physical consistency. This correction reduces the RMSE of the regional mean time series from 0.85 cm to 0.08 cm, demonstrating that mass conservation effectively improves the downscaled solution. The downscaled solution was validated against the public ASTER-derived global digital elevation model, yielding a mean absolute trend error of only 0.53 Gt/yr, and outperforms existing Mascon solutions. Analysis identifies a pronounced atmospheric oscillation over the Caspian–Black Sea region, which induces interannual variations in moisture transport along the northern branch of the westerlies. This modulation of moisture pathways leads to oscillatory precipitation variability across Central Asia, ultimately giving rise to a distinct 6–7 year interannual mass oscillation in the Tien Shan–Pamir region. The strong correlation (greater than 0.7) between this mass variability and detrended cumulative precipitation highlights the dominant role of large-scale atmospheric circulation in shaping fine-scale hydrometeorological-induced mass changes across HMA.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"671 ","pages":"Article 135235"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147359946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Build-up/wash-off models are widely used in urban stormwater quality modeling to estimate pollutant loads. However, their empirical structure often introduces equifinality, the presence of multiple parameter sets yielding similar predictions, raising concerns about the robustness and physical interpretability of model outputs. In addition to structural limitations, three key modeling considerations – land use representation, pollutant type, and the temporal scale of parameter calibration – can influence equifinality. This study introduces a novel two-stage calibration-evaluation framework that integrates seasonal parameter pooling and sequential conditional/joint likelihood reweighting to examine equifinality while accounting for these factors. The framework is implemented using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach and applied to simulate total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) loads in a mixed urban land-use catchment in London, ON, Canada. Simulation results indicate that deterministic calibration often yields parameters with limited transferability between events due to parameter equifinality. Land uses with high impervious cover were found to have relatively low equifinality, and seasonal calibration improved parameter generalizability for SRP and TP, but was less effective for TSS. The new proposed framework provides a flexible, performance-driven alternative to deterministic approaches in build-up/wash-off modeling. It enables explicit evaluation of parameter generalizability and predictive reliability under equifinality, supporting robust scenario-based stormwater quality modeling and informed decision-making.
{"title":"A two-stage approach to evaluate parameter equifinality in build-up/wash-off stormwater quality models","authors":"Zhaokai Dong , Sabrina Jivani , Pradeep Goel , Clare E. Robinson","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135234","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135234","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Build-up/wash-off models are widely used in urban stormwater quality modeling to estimate pollutant loads. However, their empirical structure often introduces equifinality, the presence of multiple parameter sets yielding similar predictions, raising concerns about the robustness and physical interpretability of model outputs. In addition to structural limitations, three key modeling considerations – land use representation, pollutant type, and the temporal scale of parameter calibration – can influence equifinality. This study introduces a novel two-stage calibration-evaluation framework that integrates seasonal parameter pooling and sequential conditional/joint likelihood reweighting to examine equifinality while accounting for these factors. The framework is implemented using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach and applied to simulate total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) loads in a mixed urban land-use catchment in London, ON, Canada. Simulation results indicate that deterministic calibration often yields parameters with limited transferability between events due to parameter equifinality. Land uses with high impervious cover were found to have relatively low equifinality, and seasonal calibration improved parameter generalizability for SRP and TP, but was less effective for TSS. The new proposed framework provides a flexible, performance-driven alternative to deterministic approaches in build-up/wash-off modeling. It enables explicit evaluation of parameter generalizability and predictive reliability under equifinality, supporting robust scenario-based stormwater quality modeling and informed decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"671 ","pages":"Article 135234"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147360416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-03-06DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135242
Lucas M. Goodman , Durelle T. Scott , Erich T. Hester
River floodplains provide ecosystems services, including attenuation of flood risks downstream, yet rivers have been disconnected from their floodplains by human actions. River floodplain restoration approaches aim to restore such services. While applications of river restoration aim to reverse widespread degradation in large watersheds, few studies have focused on cumulative effects at the watershed or channel network scale. We used HEC-RAS to evaluate how the extent and location of floodplain restoration influence flood propagation in a generic 4th-order channel network using average parameters from the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We found that flood attenuation and floodplain exchange generally increased with the length of restored channel, but the benefits of individual projects were influenced by project location and amount of restoration already in place. To guide planning, we introduce planning curves relating project placement and extent to watershed outcomes (analogous to traditional design curves that relate project design parameters to site scale outcomes). Our results show coordinated efforts on a watershed scale can pay dividends where leeway for more substantial manipulation exists in lower-order channels that provide benefits both locally and in more constrained river corridors downstream in the network. While restoration provides flood attenuation in most of our simulations, it can unintentionally exacerbate flooding in some cases due to peak flow synchronization. This highlights the importance of future simulations that vary channel network structure, but also managing expectations in practice and the necessity for channel network models to inform permitting and planning.
{"title":"Modeling cumulative hydrologic effects of multiple floodplain restoration projects in a 4th-order river channel network","authors":"Lucas M. Goodman , Durelle T. Scott , Erich T. Hester","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135242","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135242","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>River floodplains provide ecosystems services, including attenuation of flood risks downstream, yet rivers have been disconnected from their floodplains by human actions. River floodplain restoration approaches aim to restore such services. While applications of river restoration aim to reverse widespread degradation in large watersheds, few studies have focused on cumulative effects at the watershed or channel network scale. We used HEC-RAS to evaluate how the extent and location of floodplain restoration influence flood propagation in a generic 4th-order channel network using average parameters from the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We found that flood attenuation and floodplain exchange generally increased with the length of restored channel, but the benefits of individual projects were influenced by project location and amount of restoration already in place. To guide planning, we introduce planning curves relating project placement and extent to watershed outcomes (analogous to traditional design curves that relate project design parameters to site scale outcomes). Our results show coordinated efforts on a watershed scale can pay dividends where leeway for more substantial manipulation exists in lower-order channels that provide benefits both locally and in more constrained river corridors downstream in the network. While restoration provides flood attenuation in most of our simulations, it can unintentionally exacerbate flooding in some cases due to peak flow synchronization. This highlights the importance of future simulations that vary channel network structure, but also managing expectations in practice and the necessity for channel network models to inform permitting and planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"671 ","pages":"Article 135242"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-24DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135194
Hongcheng Zhang , Zhi Li , Chaomeng Dai , Jiajie Zou , Swee Pin Yeap , Kah Hon Leong , Jixiang Li , Jiajun Hu , Mintian Gao
Simulating water infiltration in the vadose zone is crucial for water resource management and environmental remediation, which is typically accomplished by numerically solving the Richards equation (RE). While existing research has acknowledged the limitations of the RE – notably its assumption of infinite air-phase mobility – a systematic assessment of its applicability across diverse hydrogeological conditions remains incomplete. This study evaluates the RE model’s performance in simulating infiltration by benchmarking it against a two-phase (TP) flow model under various boundary conditions, soil-water retention characteristics, and soil moisture states. The findings reveal that the RE model exhibits reliability degradation under saturated or ponding boundary conditions, as well as in scenarios involving high initial soil moisture, fine-textured soils (characterized by low van Genuchten - Mualem parameters , , and reduced absolute permeability ). Mechanistically, these scenarios restrict the air escape pathways by either reducing their effective conductance or by topologically sealing the exit routes. This restriction leads to elevated pore-air pressures that impede water infiltration, which the RE model fails to capture, thereby overestimating infiltration. In terms of practical applicability, the RE model likely remains robust wherever high-permeability channels form a percolating network connected to the surface within the region of interest. Conversely, for scenarios involving potential extensive confining layers, three conservative quantitative guidelines are proposed to assess the RE model’s suitability.
{"title":"Applicability of the Richards equation in infiltration simulation: A comparative study with the two-phase flow model","authors":"Hongcheng Zhang , Zhi Li , Chaomeng Dai , Jiajie Zou , Swee Pin Yeap , Kah Hon Leong , Jixiang Li , Jiajun Hu , Mintian Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135194","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135194","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Simulating water infiltration in the vadose zone is crucial for water resource management and environmental remediation, which is typically accomplished by numerically solving the Richards equation (RE). While existing research has acknowledged the limitations of the RE – notably its assumption of infinite air-phase mobility – a systematic assessment of its applicability across diverse hydrogeological conditions remains incomplete. This study evaluates the RE model’s performance in simulating infiltration by benchmarking it against a two-phase (TP) flow model under various boundary conditions, soil-water retention characteristics, and soil moisture states. The findings reveal that the RE model exhibits reliability degradation under saturated or ponding boundary conditions, as well as in scenarios involving high initial soil moisture, fine-textured soils (characterized by low van Genuchten - Mualem parameters <span><math><mi>n</mi></math></span>, <span><math><mi>α</mi></math></span>, and reduced absolute permeability <span><math><mi>k</mi></math></span>). Mechanistically, these scenarios restrict the air escape pathways by either reducing their effective conductance or by topologically sealing the exit routes. This restriction leads to elevated pore-air pressures that impede water infiltration, which the RE model fails to capture, thereby overestimating infiltration. In terms of practical applicability, the RE model likely remains robust wherever high-permeability channels form a percolating network connected to the surface within the region of interest. Conversely, for scenarios involving potential extensive confining layers, three conservative quantitative guidelines are proposed to assess the RE model’s suitability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"671 ","pages":"Article 135194"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147279110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}