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Strategies to reduce hyponatraemia risk in desmopressin ODT therapy 去氨加压素ODT治疗中降低低钠血症风险的策略
Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2025.100234
Philippe Pinton
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引用次数: 0
Cervical cancer burden in India: A descriptive epidemiological study and policy insights 印度子宫颈癌负担:描述性流行病学研究和政策见解
Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2025.100233
Khushwant Singh , Ashoo Grover , Kavitha Dhanasekaran

Background

Cervical cancer remains a major global health issue, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Although human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and screening are proven preventive strategies, LMICs, including India, face significant implementation challenges.

Methods

This observational, descriptive epidemiological study analyzes cervical cancer burden across WHO regions sourcing data from GLOBOCAN 2022, GBD, and GHO. India-specific state-level analysis was conducted using GBD data. Joinpoint regression assessed death trends, and a comparative analysis examined the impact of India's 2016 national cervical cancer screening and management policies.

Findings

The Southeast Asia Region (SEARO) accounts for the second-highest cervical cancer incident (new cases) and death rate among WHO regions, with India contributing over 65 % of the burden. National screening coverage remains alarmingly low, with only 1.9 % of women aged 30–49 undergoing screening, far below developed nations. Despite the adoption of Visual Inspection with Acetic Acid (VIA) as primary screening method in 2016, India's cervical cancer death rates have continued to rise, increasing from 6.06 to 6.78 per 100,000 women (2012–2016) to 6.82–6.91 (2016–2019). However, death annual percentage change declined from 3.84 % (2012–2015) to 0.46 % (2016–2019), indicates slowdown in death acceleration but not a reversal.

Conclusion

India's burden remains high due to low screening coverage, reliance on subjective screening test, and limited HPV vaccination. While many countries like Australia and Bhutan have successfully reduced incidence and death through HPV-based screening and vaccination, India's slow progress underscores the urgent need for policy shifts towards HPV-DNA testing with self-sampling option and national HPV-vaccination programs implementation to curb cervical cancer burden effectively.
宫颈癌仍然是一个主要的全球健康问题,特别是在低收入和中等收入国家(LMICs)。虽然人乳头瘤病毒(HPV)疫苗接种和筛查是经证实的预防战略,但包括印度在内的中低收入国家在实施方面面临重大挑战。这项观察性、描述性流行病学研究分析了世卫组织各区域的宫颈癌负担,数据来自GLOBOCAN 2022、GBD和GHO。使用GBD数据进行了印度特定的邦级分析。联合点回归评估了死亡趋势,比较分析检查了印度2016年国家宫颈癌筛查和管理政策的影响。东南亚区域是世卫组织区域中宫颈癌发病率(新发病例)和死亡率第二高的区域,其中印度占负担的65%以上。全国筛查覆盖率仍然低得惊人,只有1.9%的30-49岁妇女接受筛查,远低于发达国家。尽管2016年采用醋酸目视检查(VIA)作为主要筛查方法,但印度的宫颈癌死亡率仍在继续上升,从每10万名妇女6.06至6.78人(2012-2016年)增加到6.82至6.91人(2016 - 2019年)。然而,死亡年百分比变化从3.84%(2012-2015年)下降到0.46%(2016-2019年),表明死亡加速放缓,但并未逆转。结论由于筛查覆盖率低、依赖主观筛查试验和HPV疫苗接种有限,印度的负担仍然很高。虽然澳大利亚和不丹等许多国家通过基于hpv的筛查和疫苗接种成功地降低了发病率和死亡率,但印度的缓慢进展强调了迫切需要将政策转向带有自采样选项的HPV-DNA检测,并实施国家hpv疫苗接种规划,以有效遏制宫颈癌负担。
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引用次数: 0
Do certain blood groups increase COVID-19 severity and mortality? 某些血型会增加COVID-19的严重程度和死亡率吗?
Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2025.100212
Tegene Atamenta kitaw, Ribka Nigatu Haile

Background

The existence of a relationship between the ABO blood group and COVID-19 severity and mortality is still an unresolved concern. Some studies report that groups O and A show a lower and higher risk of developing severe COVID-19 and mortality, respectively. Some studies also report the reverse. There are inconclusive results from different studies. Thus, this study sought to determine the possible associations of ABO blood type with COVID-19 severity and mortality.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted among 570 adults with real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction confirmed positive COVID-19 patients attending Eka Kotebe General Hospital, COVID-19 Treatment Center. A Kaplan-Meier survival curve was computed to examine the difference in survival experience between ABO blood groups. Multinomial and binary logistic regression models were fitted to determine the association between ABO blood group with COVID-19 severity and mortality, respectively.

Result

238 (41.8 %) COVID-19 patients had blood group B, followed by 201 (35.3 %) A, 82 (14.4 %) O, and 49 (8.6 %) AB blood type. 23.68 % of participants develop severe COVID-19. Overall, 15.26 % COVID-19-related mortality was found. No difference in survival experience was observed between ABO blood types. There was no statistically significant association between ABO blood type and COVID-19 severity, and mortality.

Conclusion

We found no relationship between ABO blood group differences and COVID-19 severity, and mortality. Further, well-design-controlled studies are suggested to explore the potential link of ABO blood group with COVID-19 severity and mortality.
ABO血型与COVID-19严重程度和死亡率之间是否存在关系仍是一个未解决的问题。一些研究报告称,O组和A组分别表现出较低和较高的发生严重COVID-19和死亡的风险。一些研究也报告了相反的情况。不同的研究都有不确定的结果。因此,本研究试图确定ABO血型与COVID-19严重程度和死亡率的可能关联。方法回顾性分析在Eka Kotebe总医院COVID-19治疗中心就诊的570例成人实时逆转录聚合酶链反应阳性患者。计算Kaplan-Meier生存曲线来检查ABO血型之间生存经验的差异。拟合多项和二元logistic回归模型,分别确定ABO血型与COVID-19严重程度和死亡率之间的关系。结果B型238例(41.8%),A型201例(35.3%),O型82例(14.4%),AB型49例(8.6%)。23.68%的参与者发展为重症COVID-19。总体而言,与covid -19相关的死亡率为15.26%。ABO血型间生存经验无差异。ABO血型与COVID-19严重程度和死亡率之间无统计学意义的关联。结论ABO血型差异与COVID-19严重程度和死亡率无相关性。此外,建议进行设计良好的对照研究,以探索ABO血型与COVID-19严重程度和死亡率的潜在联系。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying risk factors of post–COVID-19 conditions with machine learning and deep learning algorithms 利用机器学习和深度学习算法识别covid -19后疾病的风险因素
Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2025.100221
Guohai Zhou , Scott P. Kelly , Ling Li , Rongjun Shen , Stephen E. Schachterle , Mitchell Henschel , Leo J. Russo , Xiaofeng Zhou

Introduction

Post–COVID-19 conditions (PCC) affect millions of people in the United States. Early diagnosis and PCC management requires an understanding of the epidemiology and drivers behind PCC in the real world.

Methods

We applied multiple machine learning and deep learning models to a large electronic health database of patients with a recent COVID-19 infection in the United States from 2020 to 2022 to quantitatively evaluate progression to newly developed PCC and identify the individual-level risk factors for developing new PCC at 60, 74, 90, and 120 days following initial SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Results

Patients with newly developed primary or secondary PCC were older; had higher Charleson comorbidity scores; and were more likely to smoke, have a body mass index ≥30, or have hyperlipidemia or hypertension than those without evidence of newly developed PCC. Three different machine learning models used to evaluate both the full study period and the Omicron era (beginning January 2022) consistently identified age, the Charlson comorbidity score, and healthcare utilization within 30 days of the index COVID-19 infection as the leading risk factors for developing new primary or secondary PCC. The presence of disseminated intravascular coagulation at baseline was among the 10 strongest predictors of newly developed cardiovascular or secondary PCC in the full study period and the Omicron era.

Conclusion

Multiple machine learning and deep learning models identified the Charlson comorbidity score, age, and frequency of healthcare utilization, which may help predict the occurrence of new PCC and demonstrated the utility of the models for individualized risk prediction.
在美国,covid -19后疾病(PCC)影响着数百万人。早期诊断和PCC管理需要了解现实世界中PCC背后的流行病学和驱动因素。方法对美国2020年至2022年近期COVID-19感染患者的大型电子健康数据库应用多种机器学习和深度学习模型,定量评估新发PCC的进展情况,并确定在首次感染SARS-CoV-2后60、74、90和120天发生新发PCC的个人层面危险因素。结果新发原发性或继发性PCC患者年龄较大;查理森合并症评分较高;吸烟、体重指数≥30、高脂血症或高血压的可能性高于无新发PCC证据的患者。用于评估整个研究期和Omicron时代(从2022年1月开始)的三种不同的机器学习模型一致将年龄、Charlson合并症评分和COVID-19感染指数30天内的医疗保健利用确定为发展新的原发性或继发性PCC的主要风险因素。在整个研究期间和Omicron时代,基线时弥散性血管内凝血的存在是新发心血管或继发性PCC的10个最强预测因子之一。结论多重机器学习和深度学习模型识别了Charlson合并症评分、年龄和医疗保健使用频率,有助于预测新发PCC的发生,证明了模型在个体化风险预测中的实用性。
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引用次数: 0
An AI assistant for critically assessing and synthesizing clusters of journal articles 用于批判性地评估和综合期刊文章集群的人工智能助手
Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2025.100207
Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Current large language models (LLMs) face significant challenges in attempting to synthesize and critically assess conflicting causal claims in scientific literature about exposure-associated health effects. This paper examines the design and performance of AIA2, an experimental AI system (freely available at http://cloud.cox-associates.com/) designed to help explore and illustrate potential applications of current AI in assisting analysis of clusters of related scientific articles, focusing on causal claims in complex domains such as epidemiology, toxicology, and risk analysis. Building on an earlier AI assistant, AIA1, which critically reviewed causal claims in individual papers, AIA2 advances the approach by systematically comparing multiple studies to identify areas of agreement and disagreement, suggest explanations for differences in conclusions, flag methodological gaps and inconsistencies, synthesize and summarize well-supported conclusions despite conflicts, and propose recommendations to help resolve knowledge gaps. We illustrate these capabilities with a case study of formaldehyde exposure and leukemia using a cluster of four papers that feature very different approaches and partly conflicting conclusions. AIA2 successfully identifies major points of agreement and contention, discusses the robustness of the evidence for causal claims, and recommends future research directions to address current uncertainties. AIA2's outputs suggest that current AI can offer a promising, practicable approach to AI-assisted review of clusters of papers, promoting methodological rigor, thoroughness, and transparency in review and synthesis, notwithstanding current limitations of LLMs. We discuss the implications of AI-assisted literature review systems for improving evidence-based decision-making, resolving conflicting scientific claims, and promoting rigor and reproducibility in causal research and health risk analysis.
目前的大型语言模型(llm)在试图综合和批判性评估科学文献中关于暴露相关健康影响的相互矛盾的因果关系主张方面面临重大挑战。本文研究了AIA2的设计和性能,AIA2是一个实验性人工智能系统(可在http://cloud.cox-associates.com/免费获得),旨在帮助探索和说明当前人工智能在辅助分析相关科学文章集群方面的潜在应用,重点关注流行病学、毒理学和风险分析等复杂领域的因果关系主张。在早期人工智能助手AIA1的基础上,AIA2通过系统地比较多个研究来确定一致和不一致的领域,提出结论差异的解释,标记方法上的差距和不一致,综合和总结有充分支持的结论,尽管存在冲突,并提出建议来帮助解决知识差距。我们用甲醛暴露和白血病的案例研究说明了这些能力,使用四篇论文的集群,具有非常不同的方法和部分矛盾的结论。AIA2成功地识别了主要的共识和争论点,讨论了因果主张证据的稳健性,并建议未来的研究方向以解决当前的不确定性。AIA2的产出表明,尽管目前法学硕士存在局限性,但目前的人工智能可以提供一种有前途的、可行的方法来辅助人工智能对论文群的审查,促进审查和综合的方法严谨性、彻全性和透明度。我们讨论了人工智能辅助文献综述系统在改善循证决策、解决科学主张冲突、促进因果研究和健康风险分析的严谨性和可重复性方面的意义。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring mental health disparities in Mozambique: Depression and anxiety symptoms among reproductive-aged women using data from Mozambique Demographic and Health Survey 2022–23 探索莫桑比克的心理健康差异:利用2022-23年莫桑比克人口与健康调查数据,研究育龄妇女的抑郁和焦虑症状
Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2025.100223
Syed Toukir Ahmed Noor , Sazid Siddique , Oishi Das , Samin Yeasar , Raisha Binte Islam

Background

Mental health conditions, particularly symptoms of anxiety and depression among women of reproductive age, constitute a substantial public health burden. However, comprehensive studies on these issues are scarce in Mozambique.

Objective

This study aims to investigate the prevalence and factors associated with depression and anxiety symptoms among Mozambican women of reproductive age using nationally representative data.

Methods and materials

We analyzed data from the 2022–23 Mozambique Demographic and Health Survey, including a sample of 13,183 women aged 15–49. Depression and anxiety symptoms were assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD-7) scale. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify associated factors, and a concentration curve was employed to assess wealth-related inequality of mental health conditions.

Results

Depression symptoms were reported by 10 % (95 % CI: 9.5–10.7) of women, while 11 % (95 % CI: 10.5–11.7) reported anxiety symptoms. Older age, skilled professions, and pregnancy were associated with higher odds of depression and anxiety symptoms. Conversely, women from wealthier households who engaged in agricultural work and had greater household decision-making power showed lower odds. Geographically, women in Nampula province had significantly higher odds, whereas those in Gaza province had lower odds. Also, significant wealth-related inequality was observed, with lower socioeconomic groups having higher mental health conditions.

Conclusion

These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted interventions addressing socioeconomic and geographic disparities in mental health among Mozambican women. Efforts should focus on improving access to mental health services and integrating mental health care into broader public health strategies.
心理健康状况,特别是育龄妇女的焦虑和抑郁症状,构成了巨大的公共卫生负担。然而,莫桑比克很少有关于这些问题的全面研究。目的本研究旨在利用具有全国代表性的数据调查莫桑比克育龄妇女抑郁和焦虑症状的患病率及其相关因素。方法和材料我们分析了2022-23年莫桑比克人口与健康调查的数据,包括13183名年龄在15-49岁的女性样本。采用患者健康问卷(PHQ-9)和广泛性焦虑障碍(GAD-7)量表评估抑郁和焦虑症状。采用多变量logistic回归分析确定相关因素,并采用浓度曲线评估心理健康状况的财富相关不平等。结果10% (95% CI: 9.5 ~ 10.7)的女性报告有抑郁症状,11% (95% CI: 10.5 ~ 11.7)的女性报告有焦虑症状。年龄较大、技术职业和怀孕与抑郁和焦虑症状的几率较高有关。相反,来自较富裕家庭、从事农业工作、拥有更大家庭决策权的女性患病几率较低。从地理上看,楠普拉省的女性患病几率明显较高,而加沙省的女性患病几率较低。此外,还观察到与财富相关的显著不平等,社会经济地位较低的群体心理健康状况较高。结论这些发现强调了迫切需要有针对性的干预措施,以解决莫桑比克妇女心理健康的社会经济和地理差异。努力应侧重于改善获得精神卫生服务的机会,并将精神卫生保健纳入更广泛的公共卫生战略。
{"title":"Exploring mental health disparities in Mozambique: Depression and anxiety symptoms among reproductive-aged women using data from Mozambique Demographic and Health Survey 2022–23","authors":"Syed Toukir Ahmed Noor ,&nbsp;Sazid Siddique ,&nbsp;Oishi Das ,&nbsp;Samin Yeasar ,&nbsp;Raisha Binte Islam","doi":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2025.100223","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2025.100223","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Mental health conditions, particularly symptoms of anxiety and depression among women of reproductive age, constitute a substantial public health burden. However, comprehensive studies on these issues are scarce in Mozambique.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>This study aims to investigate the prevalence and factors associated with depression and anxiety symptoms among Mozambican women of reproductive age using nationally representative data.</div></div><div><h3>Methods and materials</h3><div>We analyzed data from the 2022–23 Mozambique Demographic and Health Survey, including a sample of 13,183 women aged 15–49. Depression and anxiety symptoms were assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD-7) scale. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify associated factors, and a concentration curve was employed to assess wealth-related inequality of mental health conditions.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Depression symptoms were reported by 10 % (95 % CI: 9.5–10.7) of women, while 11 % (95 % CI: 10.5–11.7) reported anxiety symptoms. Older age, skilled professions, and pregnancy were associated with higher odds of depression and anxiety symptoms. Conversely, women from wealthier households who engaged in agricultural work and had greater household decision-making power showed lower odds. Geographically, women in Nampula province had significantly higher odds, whereas those in Gaza province had lower odds. Also, significant wealth-related inequality was observed, with lower socioeconomic groups having higher mental health conditions.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted interventions addressing socioeconomic and geographic disparities in mental health among Mozambican women. Efforts should focus on improving access to mental health services and integrating mental health care into broader public health strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36311,"journal":{"name":"Global Epidemiology","volume":"10 ","pages":"Article 100223"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145264456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Commentary on “Explainable artificial intelligence for predicting dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh using eco-climatic triggers” 对“利用生态气候触发因素预测孟加拉国登革热疫情的可解释人工智能”的评论
Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2025.100231
Indu Singh , Arvind Kumar , Nivedita Nikhil Desai , Jeffrin Reneus Paul
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引用次数: 0
Prevalence of Chikungunya, Dengue, and West Nile arboviruses in Iran based on enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA): A systematic review and meta-analysis 基于酶联免疫吸附试验(ELISA)的伊朗基孔肯雅、登革热和西尼罗河虫媒病毒流行情况:一项系统综述和荟萃分析
Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2025.100202
Ebrahim Abbasi , Mohammad Djaefar Moemenbellah-Fard

Introduction

Arboviruses, including Chikungunya (CHIKV), Dengue (DENV), and West Nile (WNV) viruses, are significant viral threats that affect numerous people globally each year. This report explores the prevalence of these viruses in Iran through a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Methods

The present survey was performed using a systematic review and meta-analysis method on the seroprevalence of WNV, CHIKV, and DENV using the ELISA test. Accordingly, by searching Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Science Direct, and Google Scholar scientific databases, all relevant published papers were sorted out and reviewed. Power ratification of data was conducted with a random effects model in meta-analysis, meta-regression, I2 index, and Egger test.

Results

This meta-analysis report embodies twelve published papers between 2000 and 2024. The seroprevalence of positive ELISA tests for WNV in Iran was estimated at 12.9 % (CI = 95 %: 7.4–18.4) and for CHIKV at 6.2 % (CI = 95 %: 0.6–11.8). Regarding DENV, only two studies were conducted, with a zero prevalence in one study and a seroprevalence of 5.6 % in another study.

Conclusion

According to these data, WNV, CHIKV, and DENV fevers have been detected in Iran using the ELISA test. Considering the seropositivity of WNV and CHIKV and their detection in several provinces, it can be assumed that these viruses are ubiquitous, while DENV fever remains sporadic in Iran.
虫媒病毒,包括基孔肯雅病毒(CHIKV)、登革热病毒(DENV)和西尼罗河病毒(WNV),是每年影响全球许多人的重大病毒威胁。本报告通过系统回顾和荟萃分析探讨了这些病毒在伊朗的流行情况。方法采用酶联免疫吸附试验(ELISA)对WNV、CHIKV和DENV的血清阳性率进行系统评价和荟萃分析。因此,通过检索Web of Science、PubMed、Scopus、Cochrane Library、Science Direct、谷歌Scholar等科学数据库,对所有相关的已发表论文进行整理和评审。采用随机效应模型进行meta分析、meta回归、I2指数和Egger检验。结果本荟萃分析报告收录了2000年至2024年间发表的12篇论文。据估计,伊朗西尼罗河病毒ELISA检测血清阳性率为12.9% (CI = 95%: 7.4-18.4),而CHIKV血清阳性率为6.2% (CI = 95%: 0.6-11.8)。关于DENV,仅进行了两项研究,其中一项研究的患病率为零,另一项研究的血清患病率为5.6%。结论利用酶联免疫分析法在伊朗检测到西尼罗河病毒、奇千伏病毒和登革出血热。考虑到西尼罗河病毒和吉千伏病毒的血清阳性以及在几个省份的检测结果,可以假设这些病毒普遍存在,而DENV热在伊朗仍然是散发的。
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引用次数: 0
ACCREDIT: Validation of clinical score for progression of COVID-19 while hospitalized ACCREDIT:住院期间COVID-19进展的临床评分验证。
Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100181
Vinicius Lins Costa Ok Melo, Pedro Emmanuel Alvarenga Americano do Brasil PhD
COVID-19 is no longer a global health emergency, but it remains challenging to predict its prognosis.

Objective

To develop and validate an instrument to predict COVID-19 progression for critically ill hospitalized patients in a Brazilian population.

Methodology

Observational study with retrospective follow-up. Participants were consecutively enrolled for treatment in non-critical units between January 1, 2021, to February 28, 2022. They were included if they were adults, with a positive RT-PCR result, history of exposure, or clinical or radiological image findings compatible with COVID-19. The outcome was characterized as either transfer to critical care or death. Predictors such as demographic, clinical, comorbidities, laboratory, and imaging data were collected at hospitalization. A logistic model with lasso or elastic net regularization, a random forest classification model, and a random forest regression model were developed and validated to estimate the risk of disease progression.

Results

Out of 301 individuals, the outcome was 41.8 %. The majority of the patients in the study lacked a COVID-19 vaccination. Diabetes mellitus and systemic arterial hypertension were the most common comorbidities. After model development and cross-validation, the Random Forest regression was considered the best approach, and the following eight predictors were retained: D-dimer, Urea, Charlson comorbidity index, pulse oximetry, respiratory frequency, Lactic Dehydrogenase, RDW, and Radiologic RALE score. The model's bias-corrected intercept and slope were − 0.0004 and 1.079 respectively, the average prediction error was 0.028. The ROC AUC curve was 0.795, and the variance explained was 0.289.

Conclusion

The prognostic model was considered good enough to be recommended for clinical use in patients during hospitalization (https://pedrobrasil.shinyapps.io/INDWELL/). The clinical benefit and the performance in different scenarios are yet to be known.
COVID-19不再是全球突发卫生事件,但预测其预后仍然具有挑战性。目的:开发并验证一种预测巴西人群危重住院患者COVID-19进展的工具。方法:回顾性随访的观察性研究。参与者在2021年1月1日至2022年2月28日期间连续入组接受非危重病房治疗。如果他们是成年人,具有RT-PCR阳性结果、暴露史或与COVID-19相符的临床或放射图像结果,则将其纳入研究。结果要么转入重症监护,要么死亡。在住院时收集诸如人口统计学、临床、合并症、实验室和影像学数据等预测因素。采用套索或弹性网正则化的逻辑模型、随机森林分类模型和随机森林回归模型进行了开发和验证,以估计疾病进展的风险。结果:在301例患者中,有效率为41.8%。研究中的大多数患者都没有接种COVID-19疫苗。糖尿病和全身性动脉高血压是最常见的合并症。经过模型开发和交叉验证,随机森林回归被认为是最好的方法,并保留了以下八个预测指标:d -二聚体、尿素、Charlson合并症指数、脉搏血氧饱和度、呼吸频率、乳酸脱氢酶、RDW和放射学RALE评分。模型的偏置校正截距和斜率分别为- 0.0004和1.079,平均预测误差为0.028。ROC曲线为0.795,方差解释为0.289。结论:该模型预后良好,可推荐临床应用于住院患者(https://pedrobrasil.shinyapps.io/INDWELL/)。临床效益和在不同情况下的表现尚不清楚。
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引用次数: 0
Prevalence and characteristics of tobacco use among adults in Kazakhstan: A cross-sectional National Survey 哈萨克斯坦成年人烟草使用的流行率和特征:一项横断面全国调查
Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2025.100194
Anel Ibrayeva , Marat Shoranov , Rassulbek Aipov , Adil Katarbayev , Shynar Tanabayeva , Ildar Fakhradiyev

Background

Smoking remains a major public health concern worldwide, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality. Despite the implementation of tobacco control measures, smoking prevalence in Kazakhstan remains high. This study aims to assess the prevalence, demographic characteristics, and regional variations in smoking habits among adults in Kazakhstan.

Methods

A cross-sectional national survey was conducted from October 2021 to May 2022, covering all 17 regions of Kazakhstan. A total of 6720 adults aged 18–69 years participated, selected using a weighted multistage cluster sampling method. Data were collected through structured interviews based on the WHO STEPwise approach. Smoking status, tobacco consumption patterns, and smoking cessation attempts were analyzed. The results were reported as means with 95 % confidence intervals (CI).

Findings

The overall smoking prevalence was 19.1 %. Smoking was significantly more common among men (30.3 %) than women (7.9 %). The highest smoking prevalence was observed in the 30–44 age group (44.2 %) and among private-sector employees (53.2 %). Regional differences were notable, with the lowest smoking prevalence in Atyrau (9.2 %) and the highest in Pavlodar (30.4 %). Among current smokers, 89.1 % smoked daily, with an average of 11.8 cigarettes per day (95 % CI: 11.4–12.2). Only 36.7 % of smokers who visited healthcare professionals in the past year received advice to quit. Additionally, 42.8 % attempted to quit smoking in the past 12 months. Passive smoking exposure was common, with 26.8 % of women and 22.3 % of men exposed at home, and 30.2 % of men and 14.4 % of women exposed at work. The prevalence of smokeless tobacco use was low (1 %).

Interpretation

Smoking remains prevalent among adults in Kazakhstan, with significant differences by gender, age, occupation, and region. The high prevalence of daily smoking and the low frequency of smoking cessation advice from healthcare professionals indicate the need for stronger tobacco control policies, targeted public health campaigns, and enhanced smoking cessation support programs. These findings provide a basis for future research and policy-making efforts aimed at reducing tobacco consumption and its associated health risks.
吸烟仍然是世界范围内一个主要的公共卫生问题,在很大程度上导致发病率和死亡率。尽管实施了烟草控制措施,哈萨克斯坦的吸烟率仍然很高。本研究旨在评估哈萨克斯坦成年人吸烟习惯的患病率、人口统计学特征和区域差异。方法于2021年10月至2022年5月对哈萨克斯坦所有17个地区进行全国性横断面调查。采用加权多阶段整群抽样的方法,对6720名18-69岁的成年人进行了调查。数据是根据世卫组织STEPwise方法通过结构化访谈收集的。分析吸烟状况、烟草消费模式和戒烟尝试。结果以95%置信区间(CI)的平均值报告。总体吸烟率为19.1%。吸烟在男性中的比例(30.3%)明显高于女性(7.9%)。吸烟率最高的是30-44岁年龄组(44.2%)和私营部门雇员(53.2%)。地区差异显著,吸烟率最低的是阿特劳(9.2%),最高的是巴甫洛达尔(30.4%)。在目前的吸烟者中,89.1%每天吸烟,平均每天11.8支烟(95% CI: 11.4-12.2)。在过去的一年中,只有36.7%的吸烟者去看过医疗保健专业人员,他们得到了戒烟的建议。此外,42.8%的人在过去12个月内曾尝试戒烟。被动吸烟暴露很常见,26.8%的女性和22.3%的男性在家中暴露,30.2%的男性和14.4%的女性在工作中暴露。无烟烟草使用的流行率很低(1%)。吸烟在哈萨克斯坦成年人中仍然很普遍,在性别、年龄、职业和地区之间存在显著差异。日常吸烟的高流行率和来自卫生保健专业人员的戒烟建议的低频率表明需要加强烟草控制政策,有针对性的公共卫生运动和加强戒烟支持计划。这些发现为今后旨在减少烟草消费及其相关健康风险的研究和决策工作提供了基础。
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Global Epidemiology
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