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Threshold Effect Between Stock Market and Long-term Economic Growth in Côte d’Ivoire 股票市场与科特迪瓦长期经济增长的阈值效应
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-31 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n2p62
Oyibo Paul Vivien, Anzian Kouamé Marcel, Djeban Koffi Mouroufié Emmanuel, Brou Djandji Emmanuel
This paper provides an empirical assessment of the relationship between stock market development and long-run growth in Côte d’Ivoire over the period 1993-2020. The cointegration results between the variables reveal a long-run relationship between economic growth and its determinants. Furthermore, the results of the quadratic model estimates show a threshold of the level of development that reduces the long-term growth in Côte d’Ivoire. Finally, the results of this study could guide the competent authorities in the elaboration of efficient economic policies to favour the development of the financial market.
本文对1993-2020年期间Côte科特迪瓦股票市场发展与长期增长之间的关系进行了实证评估。变量之间的协整结果揭示了经济增长与其决定因素之间的长期关系。此外,二次模型估计的结果显示了降低Côte科特迪瓦长期增长的发展水平的阈值。最后,这项研究的结果可以指导主管当局制定有利于金融市场发展的有效经济政策。
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引用次数: 0
Mandatory Disclosures and Market Reaction: Evidence from Qatar Stock Exchange 强制性信息披露与市场反应:来自卡塔尔证券交易所的证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-28 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n2p44
Fouad Kessasra
Information disclosure, inter alia, has a tremendously increasing impact on the stock market. This study aims to investigate the reaction of stock market to the mandatory disclosures in Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) for the period 2020-2022. To be precise, the paper investigates the market reaction as indicated by the trading volume and stock price change to disclosure of periodic financial reports (quarterly, semi-annual, and annual) and company news and, subordinately, the relationship between trade volume and stock price change of the 47 (±1) traded listed companies on the QSE for the period spans from January 2020 to October 2022. Trading volume, all market share index value and stock price change were descriptively analyzed, then investigated using a one-to-one period approach, pre and post disclosure. In consistency with a priori predictions, the result shows significant market reaction as indicated by the volatility of both trade volume and stock price change. Moderate evidence is given to support the market reaction to the periodic disclosure other than annual financial reports. Additionally, findings show a weak positive relationship between trade volume and stock price change. Interestingly, the investigation provides substantial support to the weak form market efficiency, at least for the widely traded stocks. This indicates that insiders are not being better informed about the company’s true value than outsiders in the QSE. Finally, results support to the widely held belief, but heretofore undocumented evidence from the region, that permanent disclosures provide information benefits to investors and, hence, greater benefit.
除其他外,信息披露对股票市场的影响越来越大。本研究旨在调查股票市场对卡塔尔证券交易所(QSE) 2020-2022年期间强制性披露的反应。准确地说,本文研究了2020年1月至2022年10月期间,QSE 47家(±1)上市公司的交易量和股价变化对定期财务报告(季度、半年度和年度)和公司新闻披露的市场反应,以及交易量和股价变化之间的关系。对交易量、所有市场份额指数值和股价变化进行描述性分析,然后采用一对一时间段法、前后披露法进行调查。与先验预测一致,结果显示了显著的市场反应,表现为交易量和股价变化的波动性。对于年度财务报告以外的定期披露,给出了适度的证据来支持市场的反应。此外,研究结果显示交易量与股价变动之间存在微弱的正相关关系。有趣的是,调查提供了大量的支持弱形式的市场效率,至少对广泛交易的股票。这表明,在QSE,内部人士并不比外部人士更了解该公司的真实价值。最后,结果支持了广泛持有的信念,但迄今为止尚无来自该地区的证据,即永久披露为投资者提供信息利益,从而带来更大的利益。
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引用次数: 0
Herd Behaviour of Pension Funds by Asset Class 按资产类别划分的养老基金羊群行为
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-20 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n2p26
Ian Koetsier, Jacob A. Bikker
This study investigates asset herd behaviour for Dutch pension funds from 1999 to 2014 using quarterly data. We find herd behaviour for investments in 20 asset classes including non-traditional asset classes, and to both purchasing and selling. Pension funds’ herd behaviour is particularly high in alternative investments, which might increase herding in general as pension funds move their portfolio towards these assets in recent years. Herding intensity is higher during stock market crises, such as the Dot.com and the financial crisis, than during non-crisis conditions. However, during real estate or bond market crises, herding behaviour intensity remains virtually unchanged compared to non-crisis periods. The extent to which this behaviour has a stabilising or destabilising impact on financial markets varies per asset class. It is striking that sales of assets by pension funds on the equity and bond markets in times of crisis often have a stabilising impact, whereas this is not the case on the buying side.
本研究使用季度数据调查1999年至2014年荷兰养老基金的资产羊群行为。我们发现,包括非传统资产类别在内的20种资产类别的投资,以及买入和卖出都存在羊群行为。养老金funds&,羊群行为在另类投资中尤为明显,随着养老基金近年来将其投资组合转向这些资产,这可能会在总体上增加羊群行为。在股市危机期间,如互联网泡沫和金融危机期间,羊群效应的强度要高于非危机时期。然而,在房地产或债券市场危机期间,与非危机时期相比,羊群行为的强度几乎保持不变。这种行为对金融市场产生稳定或破坏稳定影响的程度,因资产类别而异。令人惊讶的是,在危机时期,养老基金在股票和债券市场上出售资产往往具有稳定作用,而在买方却并非如此。
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引用次数: 0
Parachute Effect of Dividends Paid in Times of Health Crisis: Case of Moroccan MSI 20 Companies 健康危机时期股利支付的降落伞效应:以摩洛哥MSI 20公司为例
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-05 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n2p18
Hajar Benjana
The dividend is a part of the profit that remunerates the shareholder, but in the deeper sense it is a tool that aims to cement at first sight the relationship between the company and its shareholders within the framework of a Shareholder Relationship Management (SRM). Indeed, the dividend is dependent on the choice of the company, its size, its sector of activity but also on the economic situation of the country. Moreover, in times of crisis, some listed companies waive this distribution and others, on the other hand, seem more generous to absorb the fall in the stock market prices of their values in order to appease the losses suffered by their shareholders. In doing so, the objective of this research is to analyze the dividend distribution policy of listed companies who form the MSI 20 in order to verify the existence of the parachute effect of the dividend. For that, we choose a five-year study running from 2017 to 2021.
股息是回报股东的利润的一部分,但在更深层次的意义上,它是一种工具,旨在在股东关系管理(SRM)的框架内,乍一看巩固公司与股东之间的关系。事实上,股息取决于公司的选择、规模、活动领域,但也取决于国家的经济状况。此外,在危机时期,一些上市公司放弃这种分配,另一方面,另一些上市公司似乎更慷慨地吸收股价下跌的价值,以安抚股东遭受的损失。因此,本研究的目的是分析构成MSI 20的上市公司的股利分配政策,以验证股利降落伞效应的存在。为此,我们选择了一项为期五年的研究,从2017年到2021年。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Corn and Soybean Futures Prices Traded on the Brazilian Stock Exchange: An ARDL Approach 在巴西证券交易所交易的玉米和大豆期货价格的决定因素:ARDL方法
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-12-25 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n1p65
M. Tessmann, C. Carrasco-Gutierrez, A. Lima
This work aims to understand the determinants of the prices of corn and soybean futures traded on the Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3) based on the influence of international commodity prices on domestic prices. Using a theoretical model developed by Mundlack and Larson (1993) that considers the one-price law hypothesis, we estimate the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test for cointegration (Pesaran et al., 2001), who tested the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables, as well as short-term influences. The database comprises the period from February 2011 to December 2019 and corresponds to the prices of corn and soybean futures contracts traded on the Brazilian Stock Exchange; and corn, soybeans and oil traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, in addition to incorporating in the analysis the Brazilian macroeconomic variables exchange rate, inflation and GDP. The main results showed a long-term relationship between domestic prices, the exchange rate, and international prices negotiated in the United States for both commodities. Soybean prices are mostly affected by international prices in comparison to corn prices. In the short term, we found that soybean prices are affected by trading prices of the same commodity in the United States.
这项工作旨在了解基于国际商品价格对国内价格的影响,在巴西证券交易所(B3)交易的玉米和大豆期货价格的决定因素。使用Mundlack和Larson(1993)开发的考虑一价定律假设的理论模型,我们估计了协整的自回归分布滞后(ARDL)界限检验(Pesaran等人,2001),他们检验了变量之间存在长期关系以及短期影响。该数据库涵盖2011年2月至2019年12月期间,对应于巴西证券交易所交易的玉米和大豆期货合约价格;以及在芝加哥商品交易所交易的玉米、大豆和石油,此外还将巴西的宏观经济变量汇率、通货膨胀和GDP纳入分析。主要研究结果表明,这两种商品的国内价格、汇率和在美国谈判的国际价格之间存在长期关系。与玉米价格相比,大豆价格主要受到国际价格的影响。在短期内,我们发现大豆价格受到美国同类商品交易价格的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of the People's Bank of China and Financial Supervisory Authorities for Greening China's Financial System 中国人民银行和金融监管机构在绿色中国金融体系中的作用
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-12-25 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n1p55
Pierre Bilivogui, Karfalla Diakite, Emmanuel Tonguino
Climate change has become a significant threat to global economies in recent years. The idea that governments, banks, and regulators should work together to combat climate change and promote sustainable financing is gaining traction. The world’s central banks and financial regulators must take action on climate change and support sustainable financing. For example, consider the proliferation of regulatory bodies like the Sustainable Banking Network and central banks. The literature review is descriptive and relies on secondary sources. The report covers the first four quarters of 2021 and summarizes the monetary authority’s policy operations (goals and achievements). This study includes all scheduled banks and non-banking financial institutions in China in 2021, both public and private, due to their roles in green and sustainable finance. We spoke with four seasoned market analysts and four active and retired government officials and policymakers from central banks and financial supervisory authorities. While China’s economic development is undoubtedly threatened by climate change, the country has little choice but to continue to rely on its time-tested approaches to creating riches. The country cannot progress otherwise. Good news: The People’s Bank of China is making eco-friendly banking the norm in China’s financial sector.
近年来,气候变化已成为全球经济面临的重大威胁。政府、银行和监管机构应共同努力应对气候变化并促进可持续融资的想法正在得到越来越多的支持。世界各国央行和金融监管机构必须采取行动应对气候变化,支持可持续融资。例如,考虑到可持续银行网络和中央银行等监管机构的激增。文献综述是描述性的,依赖于二手资料。该报告涵盖了2021年前四个季度,总结了货币管理局的政策操作(目标和成就)。本研究涵盖了2021年中国所有上市银行和非银行金融机构,包括公共和私营银行,因为它们在绿色和可持续金融中的作用。我们采访了四位经验丰富的市场分析师、四位现任和退休的政府官员以及央行和金融监管机构的政策制定者。虽然中国的经济发展无疑受到气候变化的威胁,但中国别无选择,只能继续依靠其久经考验的方法来创造财富。否则这个国家就无法进步。好消息是:中国人民银行正在将环保银行作为中国金融业的规范。
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引用次数: 0
How Volatility and Herding of the Stock Markets in the Oceania Region Influence Investors and Policymakers: A Sector-Wise Exploration in Pre and Post-COVID Period 大洋洲地区股票市场的波动性和羊群效应如何影响投资者和政策制定者:新冠疫情前后的行业探索
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n1p24
Swarnil Roy, Sk. Riad Arefin, Avijit Mallik
The paper probes the sector-wise presence of volatility persistence, herding behavior and corresponding implications on investors and policymakers in the Oceania region both in Pre-COVID & Post-COVID era. The inspection is based on seven identical sectors from both Australia and New Zealand using GARCH (Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) methods for volatility analysis and CSAD (Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation) method for herding behavior. This paper finds the existence of herding behavior only in the consumer discretionary sector for both countries which delineates efficient market conditions for other sectors. The market is highly favorable for the investors in Food & Beverages, IT, and Healthcare sectors in both countries due to the potential growth opportunity while Real Estate and Financial sectors should be meticulously assessed in line with the alteration of macroeconomic forces. Fiscal and monetary measures along with the influx of labor forces and technological breakthroughs should be the key concentrations for the policymakers of both countries.
本文探讨了大洋洲地区在covid - 19前和后时代波动持续性、羊群行为及其对投资者和政策制定者的相应影响。检验基于来自澳大利亚和新西兰的七个相同的部门,使用GARCH(广义自回归条件异方差)方法进行波动分析,使用CSAD(横截面绝对偏差)方法进行羊群行为。本文发现,羊群行为只存在于两国的非必需消费品部门,这描述了其他部门的有效市场条件。由于潜在的增长机会,市场对两国食品饮料,IT和医疗保健行业的投资者非常有利,而房地产和金融行业应根据宏观经济力量的变化进行仔细评估。财政和货币措施以及劳动力的涌入和技术突破应该是两国政策制定者关注的重点。
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引用次数: 2
Public Debt Path and Long-Memory in Fiscal Data: An Analysis for a Developing Country 财政数据中的公共债务路径与长期记忆:一个发展中国家的分析
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-12-05 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n1p12
R. Moreira, E. Z. Monte
This article contributed to the literature on fiscal rules as we found evidence of expected inflationary effects as a result of lower fiscal cyclicality, even after an appropriate treatment for long-memory in the data, thereby in contrast to the most part of the related published studies, which have adopted conventional unit root tests. We used Brazil as our case of study, which represents a relevant example of developing country nowadays. We then found evidence of a pro-cyclical fiscal rule in Brazil, mainly after 2014, so that it diverged from the public debt sustainability principle developed by Bohn (1995; 2005).
本文对财政规则的文献做出了贡献,因为我们发现了财政周期性较低导致预期通货膨胀效应的证据,即使在对数据中的长记忆进行适当处理之后也是如此,从而与大部分采用传统单位根检验的相关发表研究形成对比。我们以巴西作为研究案例,它代表了当今发展中国家的一个相关例子。然后,我们在巴西发现了顺周期财政规则的证据,主要是在2014年之后,因此它偏离了Bohn (1995;2005)。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Interest Rates and Treasury Bill Yields on Stock Prices in Zambia 利率和国库券收益率对赞比亚股票价格的影响
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-11-30 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v14n12p92
Y. Gebremeskel, Levison Malawo
The paper analyzes the short-run and long-run effects of interest rates and Treasury bill rates on stock prices on the Lusaka Securities Exchange (LuSE) using semi-annual data between January 2006 and January 2022. ARDL model is used after we proved that there is no ARCH effect on the dependent variable (LNLASI). The findings show that deposit interest rates had a significant but weak negative impact on stock prices in the short run but had a positive impact on the stock prices in the long run, lending interest rates on the other hand had an insignificant positive impact on stock prices but a negative impact on stock prices in the long run. Treasury bill yields were found to have a negative significant impact on stock prices but had an insignificant negative impact on stock prices in the long run. Moreover, we found co-integration between among the three variables which means that there is a long run equilibrium relationship. As a result, the study concludes that, in the long-run, interest rates and Treasury bill rates have a combined effect on stock prices.
本文利用2006年1月至2022年1月的半年数据,分析了利率和国库券利率对卢萨卡证券交易所(LuSE)股票价格的短期和长期影响。在证明了因变量(LNLASI)不存在ARCH效应后,使用ARDL模型。研究发现,存款利率对股票价格在短期内具有显著但微弱的负向影响,但在长期内具有正向影响;贷款利率对股票价格具有不显著的正向影响,但在长期内具有负向影响。国库券收益率对股票价格有显著的负向影响,但在长期内对股票价格的负向影响不显著。此外,我们发现三个变量之间存在协整关系,这意味着存在长期均衡关系。因此,该研究得出结论,从长期来看,利率和国库券利率对股价有综合影响。
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引用次数: 0
Non-Fungible Token (NFT) Prices, Cryptocurrencies, Interest Rate and Gold: An Econometric Analysis (Jan. 2019-Aug. 2022) 不可替代代币(NFT)价格、加密货币、利率和黄金:计量经济学分析(2019年1月- 8月)2022)
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-11-30 DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v15n1p1
P. Vartanian, Álvaro Alves de Moura Jr, J. Racy, Roberto Simioni Neto
In May 2014, the animation “Quantum” was the first work to be associated with a non-fungible token (NFT) type certificate. As of 2020, the market has evolved considerably, with the millionaire figures and exponential growth typical of new disruptive technologies. Considering the recent rise of the NFT market, it is important to understand how it works and, above all, the determinants of the prices of NFTs are highlighted. Based on a detailed analysis of this new market, a GARCH multivariate econometric model is applied in order to assess whether it is possible to identify the price determinants of NFTs, based on the behavior of the prices of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin and Ethereum), the US interest rate and the price of gold. The research is based on the study by Dowling (2022a), which sought to analyze relations between the prices of NFTs and cryptocurrencies. The results found coincide with the prices of NFTs that are similar and independent of cryptocurrencies, the interest rate and the price of gold, some specific differences to identify a determined period.
2014年5月,动画《量子》是第一部与不可替代令牌(NFT)类型证书相关联的作品。截至2020年,市场已经发生了很大的变化,百万富翁的数量和典型的新颠覆性技术的指数级增长。考虑到NFT市场最近的崛起,了解它是如何运作的很重要,最重要的是,NFT价格的决定因素得到了强调。基于对这个新市场的详细分析,应用GARCH多元计量经济模型,以评估是否有可能根据加密货币(比特币和以太坊)的价格行为、美国利率和黄金价格来确定nft的价格决定因素。该研究基于Dowling (2022a)的研究,该研究试图分析nft价格与加密货币之间的关系。这一结果与nft的价格相吻合,nft的价格相似,独立于加密货币、利率和黄金价格,一些具体的差异可以确定一个确定的时期。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies
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