Pub Date : 2025-09-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2025.07.003
Emilien Genet , Marco Giugliarelli
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is crucial in identifying causes and controls, and assessing residual risks in safety-critical industries. The Artemis mission aims to establish human safe permanence in space, necessitating adapted safety evaluation tools. NASA has led PRA complexity in space based on its manned flight history, while Europe lacks PRA standards like ECSS, despite mandatory Fault Tree Analyses (FTAs) for crewed missions. Thales Alenia Space proposes enhancing PRA modeling in FTAs by quantifying Common Cause Failure (CCF) events and integrating Safety mitigations in PRA. The proposed methodology improves estimates residual risks, with explicit CCF modeling over outdated approaches and specific tailoring for space vehicles and hazards. Proof on concepts on Gateway manned modules demonstrates benefits of this PRA approach for safety panels and industry, to minimize biases. Our results show the need for international consensus and standardizations on quantitative FTA methods for the space projects.
{"title":"Exhaustive probabilistic risk assessment for space applications including common causes","authors":"Emilien Genet , Marco Giugliarelli","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.07.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.07.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is crucial in identifying causes and controls, and assessing residual risks in safety-critical industries. The Artemis mission aims to establish human safe permanence in space, necessitating adapted safety evaluation tools. NASA has led PRA complexity in space based on its manned flight history, while Europe lacks PRA standards like ECSS, despite mandatory Fault Tree Analyses (FTAs) for crewed missions. Thales Alenia Space proposes enhancing PRA modeling in FTAs by quantifying Common Cause Failure (CCF) events and integrating Safety mitigations in PRA. The proposed methodology improves estimates residual risks, with explicit CCF modeling over outdated approaches and specific tailoring for space vehicles and hazards. Proof on concepts on Gateway manned modules demonstrates benefits of this PRA approach for safety panels and industry, to minimize biases. Our results show the need for international consensus and standardizations on quantitative FTA methods for the space projects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 3","pages":"Pages 396-404"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145108280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2025.07.002
Luca Santoro, Lucio Gradoni, David Le Falc’her, Gianni Truscelli, Dante Galli
As part of the Space Rider mission, experiments will have the opportunity to spend around two months in orbit. The types of experiments vary significantly, resulting in highly diversified risks which needs to be managed at individual payload level, aggregate level and Space Rider’s re-entry module level, in order to ensure mission success at all levels.
Additionally, as the mission will be launched from French Guiana, the Space Rider mission shall obtain its launch authorizations from the French Authorities, through a submission process based on two aspects. Firstly, the demonstration of the correct identification and management of the hazards generated by the mission and secondly by showing compliancy to the various French regulations and to the ESA Space debris mitigation rules.
As the maiden flight of Space Rider might embark at least fourteen experiments, a simplified approach based on each experiment hazardousness is followed in order to lighten the whole authorizations process and facilitate experiments safety inputs provision.
Firstly, by performing such simplified approach, it appeared that several experiments present very similar hazards, hence allowing to provide homogenous design recommendations and requests to all experiment owners. Additionally, it enables clear feedback to potential new experiment owners, based on previous communication with similar experiments.
Secondly, by placing the focus almost entirely on experiments with hazards above a pre-determined severity threshold, such streamlined acceptance process demonstrates its ability to save time by reducing workload. This enables faster and more concise communications with the French Authorities responsible for Space Rider Safety assessment towards the French Guiana Space Center regulation [3].
Finally, by aiming to synthesize the risks of all experiments from the onset, it required early technical exchanges with all potential experiment owners, allowing to gain an extensive understanding of possible hazards to mitigate and design choices to recommend or request.
{"title":"Space rider’s maiden flight payloads/experiments safety acceptance process","authors":"Luca Santoro, Lucio Gradoni, David Le Falc’her, Gianni Truscelli, Dante Galli","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.07.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.07.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As part of the Space Rider mission, experiments will have the opportunity to spend around two months in orbit. The types of experiments vary significantly, resulting in highly diversified risks which needs to be managed at individual payload level, aggregate level and Space Rider’s re-entry module level, in order to ensure mission success at all levels.</div><div>Additionally, as the mission will be launched from French Guiana, the Space Rider mission shall obtain its launch authorizations from the French Authorities, through a submission process based on two aspects. Firstly, the demonstration of the correct identification and management of the hazards generated by the mission and secondly by showing compliancy to the various French regulations and to the ESA Space debris mitigation rules.</div><div>As the maiden flight of Space Rider might embark at least fourteen experiments, a simplified approach based on each experiment hazardousness is followed in order to lighten the whole authorizations process and facilitate experiments safety inputs provision.</div><div>Firstly, by performing such simplified approach, it appeared that several experiments present very similar hazards, hence allowing to provide homogenous design recommendations and requests to all experiment owners. Additionally, it enables clear feedback to potential new experiment owners, based on previous communication with similar experiments.</div><div>Secondly, by placing the focus almost entirely on experiments with hazards above a pre-determined severity threshold, such streamlined acceptance process demonstrates its ability to save time by reducing workload. This enables faster and more concise communications with the French Authorities responsible for Space Rider Safety assessment towards the French Guiana Space Center regulation [<span><span>3</span></span>].</div><div>Finally, by aiming to synthesize the risks of all experiments from the onset, it required early technical exchanges with all potential experiment owners, allowing to gain an extensive understanding of possible hazards to mitigate and design choices to recommend or request.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 3","pages":"Pages 443-446"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145108235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2025.08.006
Leonardo Barilaro , Stefano Lopresti , Lorenzo Olivieri , Mark Wylie
This paper presents an overview of ASTROBEAT, an innovative in-orbit mission to investigate cold-welding as a new method for repairing spacecraft hull damage caused by hypervelocity impacts. The experiment is a technology demonstrator, launched on November 5, 2024, aboard a SpaceX CRS mission, to test cold-welding under microgravity conditions on the International Space Station (ISS). The phenomenon, which involves the fusion of similar metals at ambient temperatures under high contact pressures, benefits from the space environment, where the absence of reoxidation facilitates atomic diffusion, enabling bonding at reduced forces. The ASTROBEAT experimental setup, housed within a 1 U cube Nanolab installed on an ISS rack, incorporates material test beds, a hull perforation repair device, and custom electronic and data acquisition systems. The core experiment involves preloaded springs delivering controlled forces to metal pairs (CuSn4 and Al-2024T) designed to simulate patch applications for spacecraft hull breaches. A pico-camera monitors the actuation process to ensure successful deployment, while electrical resistance measurements provide real-time data on the welding process. Functional testing and in-orbit operations showed that ASTROBEAT worked nominally. Post-flight, the payload will be recovered for further analysis. By demonstrating the feasibility of cold-welding for spacecraft repair, ASTROBEAT addresses a critical gap in standardized in-situ maintenance solutions, enhancing spacecraft safety and enabling long-term sustainability in space exploration.
{"title":"ASTROBEAT: Advancing cold-welding technology for in-situ spacecraft repairs","authors":"Leonardo Barilaro , Stefano Lopresti , Lorenzo Olivieri , Mark Wylie","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.08.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.08.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents an overview of ASTROBEAT, an innovative in-orbit mission to investigate cold-welding as a new method for repairing spacecraft hull damage caused by hypervelocity impacts. The experiment is a technology demonstrator, launched on November 5, 2024, aboard a SpaceX CRS mission, to test cold-welding under microgravity conditions on the International Space Station (ISS). The phenomenon, which involves the fusion of similar metals at ambient temperatures under high contact pressures, benefits from the space environment, where the absence of reoxidation facilitates atomic diffusion, enabling bonding at reduced forces. The ASTROBEAT experimental setup, housed within a 1 U cube Nanolab installed on an ISS rack, incorporates material test beds, a hull perforation repair device, and custom electronic and data acquisition systems. The core experiment involves preloaded springs delivering controlled forces to metal pairs (CuSn4 and Al-2024T) designed to simulate patch applications for spacecraft hull breaches. A pico-camera monitors the actuation process to ensure successful deployment, while electrical resistance measurements provide real-time data on the welding process. Functional testing and in-orbit operations showed that ASTROBEAT worked nominally. Post-flight, the payload will be recovered for further analysis. By demonstrating the feasibility of cold-welding for spacecraft repair, ASTROBEAT addresses a critical gap in standardized in-situ maintenance solutions, enhancing spacecraft safety and enabling long-term sustainability in space exploration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 3","pages":"Pages 405-418"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145108281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2025.07.004
Alberto Boretti
Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) is an advanced technology ideally suited for long-duration space missions requiring high efficiency and low-thrust propulsion. SEP systems generate propulsion by converting onboard electricity, using electric thrusters powered by solar arrays. This review offers a comprehensive analysis of both established and emerging thruster technologies, including electrothermal (ET), electrostatic (ES), and the evolving electromagnetic (EM) thrusters, while considering mission-specific factors such as power availability, propellant choice, and spacecraft mass that influence thruster selection. The performance of SEP systems largely depends on solar arrays, typically utilizing III-V multijunction solar cells, which offer superior sunlight conversion efficiency compared to alternatives like perovskite cells, concentrated photovoltaics, and silicon heterojunction cells. Despite SEP's advantages—such as high efficiency, extended mission duration, and reliability— it faces challenges, including the requirement for large solar arrays and reliance on sunlight. However, ongoing research continues to enhance SEP technology, making it increasingly vital for future space exploration and scientific missions. The market outlook for SEP is promising, and its significant geopolitical implications highlight the necessity for stronger international collaboration in space ventures. Solar electric propulsion offers significant benefits for satellite and spacecraft operations but also poses safety challenges. Addressing collision avoidance, radiation protection, plume interactions, and end-of-life disposal is crucial. Ongoing research and collaboration among stakeholders will be essential for developing effective safety protocols and regulatory frameworks.
{"title":"A narrative review of solar electric propulsion for space missions: Technological progress, market opportunities, geopolitical considerations, and safety challenges","authors":"Alberto Boretti","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.07.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.07.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) is an advanced technology ideally suited for long-duration space missions requiring high efficiency and low-thrust propulsion. SEP systems generate propulsion by converting onboard electricity, using electric thrusters powered by solar arrays. This review offers a comprehensive analysis of both established and emerging thruster technologies, including electrothermal (ET), electrostatic (ES), and the evolving electromagnetic (EM) thrusters, while considering mission-specific factors such as power availability, propellant choice, and spacecraft mass that influence thruster selection. The performance of SEP systems largely depends on solar arrays, typically utilizing III-V multijunction solar cells, which offer superior sunlight conversion efficiency compared to alternatives like perovskite cells, concentrated photovoltaics, and silicon heterojunction cells. Despite SEP's advantages—such as high efficiency, extended mission duration, and reliability— it faces challenges, including the requirement for large solar arrays and reliance on sunlight. However, ongoing research continues to enhance SEP technology, making it increasingly vital for future space exploration and scientific missions. The market outlook for SEP is promising, and its significant geopolitical implications highlight the necessity for stronger international collaboration in space ventures. Solar electric propulsion offers significant benefits for satellite and spacecraft operations but also poses safety challenges. Addressing collision avoidance, radiation protection, plume interactions, and end-of-life disposal is crucial. Ongoing research and collaboration among stakeholders will be essential for developing effective safety protocols and regulatory frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 3","pages":"Pages 549-559"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145108247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2025.07.006
Kayla Bigham, Rachita Puri
The recent rapid advancement of commercial space operations has highlighted high levels of reentry debris modeling uncertainty and the lack of efficient international coordination for exchanging information to ensure these operations are conducted safely. One such source of modeling uncertainty occurs in aerothermal demise predictions of debris fragments while performing flight safety analysis for controlled reentries. Using current models, predicting aerothermal demise for any type of reentry with a high degree of certainty is a time and resource intensive process due to a lack of data, the introduction of new materials, and the complexity of current models. Another layer of uncertainty is introduced for cases of uncontrolled or random reentry of an object. For random reentry cases, there is limited capability to predict when and where debris will impact Earth’s surface.
Advancements in understanding of the risks from space operations, including controlled reentries, debris from launch, and random reentries, will allow countries to have higher certainty when a particular area may be exposed to risk. Existing international frameworks and processes are not agile enough to enable efficient data sharing, communication, or real time operational coordination for mitigating hazards from these space operations. Given the differences in jurisdiction, issues of sovereignty, lack of standardized procedures, and the ambiguity in implementing international space laws and treaties, the high degree of uncertainty in the risk predictions poses additional challenges with respect to the implementation of safety measures such as warnings and closures.
This paper investigates how improvements will be needed to safeguard public safety for reentry operations across the globe, by highlighting shortcomings in modeling ability and opportunities for increased operational coordination and communication with international partners.
{"title":"A critical analysis of reentry debris uncertainty and international coordination efforts","authors":"Kayla Bigham, Rachita Puri","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.07.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.07.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The recent rapid advancement of commercial space operations has highlighted high levels of reentry debris modeling uncertainty and the lack of efficient international coordination for exchanging information to ensure these operations are conducted safely. One such source of modeling uncertainty occurs in aerothermal demise predictions of debris fragments while performing flight safety analysis for controlled reentries. Using current models, predicting aerothermal demise for any type of reentry with a high degree of certainty is a time and resource intensive process due to a lack of data, the introduction of new materials, and the complexity of current models. Another layer of uncertainty is introduced for cases of uncontrolled or random reentry of an object. For random reentry cases, there is limited capability to predict when and where debris will impact Earth’s surface.</div><div>Advancements in understanding of the risks from space operations, including controlled reentries, debris from launch, and random reentries, will allow countries to have higher certainty when a particular area may be exposed to risk. Existing international frameworks and processes are not agile enough to enable efficient data sharing, communication, or real time operational coordination for mitigating hazards from these space operations. Given the differences in jurisdiction, issues of sovereignty, lack of standardized procedures, and the ambiguity in implementing international space laws and treaties, the high degree of uncertainty in the risk predictions poses additional challenges with respect to the implementation of safety measures such as warnings and closures.</div><div>This paper investigates how improvements will be needed to safeguard public safety for reentry operations across the globe, by highlighting shortcomings in modeling ability and opportunities for increased operational coordination and communication with international partners.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 3","pages":"Pages 475-480"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145108313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2025.06.006
Giacomo Curzi , Dario Modenini
Conjunction assessment in the field of collision avoidance is customarily based on a single or a fusion of collision risk indexes. There are several risk indexes proposed in the literature, yet the authors could not find a comparative study of such indexes that was based on the miss detection performance. Miss detection is in fact one possible target parameter when choosing an actionable threshold and is a good candidate for high-traffic conditions. This work applies and compares four different detection strategies i) Probability of Collision, ii) Mahalanobis distance, iii) Wald Sequential Probability Ratio test and iv) Gaussian Belief Function on a common dataset of virtual conjunctions, measuring the performance on the Receiver-Operating-Characteristic (ROC) plane (detection rate – vs – false alarm rate). The virtual conjunction dataset offers an unprecedented realism in both the geometry and the true collision rate of candidate conjunctions given some orbital scenario. Using this dataset, we estimate the realistic performance of the detectors. Results indicate that all the examined risk indexes offer a performance linkable to the miss detection rate. However, the classical Probability of Collision can underperform with respect to the Mahalanobis distance detector, which might be preferred for its simplicity instead.
避碰领域的联合评估通常是基于单个或多个碰撞风险指标的融合。文献中提出了几种风险指标，但笔者尚未找到基于脱靶检测性能对这些指标进行比较研究的文献。在选择可操作阈值时，脱靶检测实际上是一个可能的目标参数，并且是高流量条件下的良好候选。这项工作应用并比较了四种不同的检测策略i)碰撞概率，ii)马氏距离，iii)沃尔德序列概率比测试和iv)高斯信念函数在虚拟连接的公共数据集上，测量接收机-工作特征（ROC）平面上的性能（检测率- vs -误报警率）。虚拟连接数据集在给定轨道场景的候选连接的几何形状和真实碰撞率方面提供了前所未有的真实感。使用该数据集，我们估计检测器的实际性能。结果表明，所有检测的风险指标都提供了与未检出率相关的性能。然而，相对于马氏距离检测器，经典的碰撞概率算法可能表现不佳，而马氏距离检测器可能因其简单而更受欢迎。
{"title":"A comparison of spacecraft collision detection strategies using a virtual conjunction dataset","authors":"Giacomo Curzi , Dario Modenini","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.06.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.06.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Conjunction assessment in the field of collision avoidance<span><span> is customarily based on a single or a fusion of collision risk indexes. There are several risk indexes proposed in the literature, yet the authors could not find a comparative study of such indexes that was based on the miss detection performance. Miss detection is in fact one possible target parameter when choosing an actionable threshold and is a good candidate for high-traffic conditions. This work applies and compares four different detection strategies i) Probability of Collision, ii) </span>Mahalanobis distance<span><span>, iii) Wald Sequential Probability Ratio test<span> and iv) Gaussian<span> Belief Function on a common dataset of virtual conjunctions, measuring the performance on the Receiver-Operating-Characteristic (ROC) plane (detection rate – vs – false alarm rate). The virtual conjunction dataset offers an unprecedented realism in both the geometry and the true </span></span></span>collision rate of candidate conjunctions given some orbital scenario. Using this dataset, we estimate the realistic performance of the detectors. Results indicate that all the examined risk indexes offer a performance linkable to the miss detection rate. However, the classical Probability of Collision can underperform with respect to the Mahalanobis distance detector, which might be preferred for its simplicity instead.</span></span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 3","pages":"Pages 532-541"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145108245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2025.06.004
Contessa G. Norris, Robert A. Bettinger, Travis M. Grile
This research examines space launch vehicle (SLV) and satellite reliability trends through a variety of statistical methods such as the first-level Bayesian estimation and the Weibull distribution for France, India, Israel, Japan, and South Korea. Datasets derived from the Seradata database included the following information: launch date, inactive date, launch country, satellite owner country, vehicle family, satellite name, orbit category, satellite status, mass category, event, event date, and event remarks. The first-level Bayesian estimation and success rates were calculated for 538 SLV launches from each country’s first launch date to 31 December 2023. Overall, 51 launches were failures, making up 9.48 % of total launches for the countries analyzed; 57.8 % of launches were sent to low Earth orbit (LEO) while 4.28 % were sent beyond geosynchronous/geostationary orbit (GEO-GSO). Of 18 SLVs analyzed, 6 vehicle families exhibited realized success rates above 90 %. Since 1965, 809 satellites were launched, with a 1.98 % failure rate. The primary cause of failure was due to the satellites, inability to transmit signals, making communication, command, and control unattainable. Ultimately, through Weibull distribution, satellites owned by France, India, Japan, and South Korea showed a decreasing failure rate over time while results from Israeli satellites were inconclusive.
{"title":"Space vehicle reliability assessment for selected medium space powers","authors":"Contessa G. Norris, Robert A. Bettinger, Travis M. Grile","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.06.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.06.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>This research examines space launch vehicle (SLV) and satellite reliability trends through a variety of statistical methods such as the first-level Bayesian estimation and the Weibull distribution for France, India, Israel, Japan<span>, and South Korea. Datasets derived from the Seradata database included the following information: launch date, inactive date, launch country, satellite owner country, vehicle family, satellite name, orbit category, satellite status, mass category, event, event date, and event remarks. The first-level Bayesian estimation and success rates were calculated for 538 SLV launches from each country’s first launch date to 31 December 2023. Overall, 51 launches were failures, making up 9.48 % of total launches for the countries analyzed; 57.8 % of launches were sent to </span></span>low Earth orbit (LEO) while 4.28 % were sent beyond geosynchronous/geostationary orbit (GEO-GSO). Of 18 SLVs analyzed, 6 vehicle families exhibited realized success rates above 90 %. Since 1965, 809 satellites were launched, with a 1.98 % failure rate. The primary cause of failure was due to the satellites, inability to transmit signals, making communication, command, and control unattainable. Ultimately, through Weibull distribution, satellites owned by France, India, Japan, and South Korea showed a decreasing failure rate over time while results from Israeli satellites were inconclusive.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 3","pages":"Pages 513-531"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145108282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2025.05.002
Asebe Oljira Geleta , Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu
The study examines the change in the vertical total electron content (VTEC) and the presence of ionospheric irregularities during the geomagnetic storms that occurred on February 18–20, 2014 and May 27–29, 2017. TEC data from satellite receivers located in the equatorial and low latitude areas of the Americas, Pacific, Africa, and India were analyzed. In addition, magnetometer data, the Direct Penetration of Equatorial Electric Field Model (PPEEFM), interplanetary magnetic fields, and electric field data were also used. The Rate of TEC change (ROTI) was used to investigate changes in TEC caused by disturbances. The results indicate that there was a significant increase in TEC % over the Indian sector on 29 May 2017. Similarly, during the recovery phase of the storm there was an increase in TEC (about 240 %) over the Pacific sector which may attributed disturbances in the magnetosphere and ionosphere currents. During the geomagnetic storm on February 19–20, 2014, there were noticeable positive storm effects over the American sector, with TEC deviations of up to 220 %. After the main storm phase, the Pacific sector experienced TEC deviations of around 300 %. The study also found that ionospheric irregularities were suppressed in the American, African, and Indian sectors during the storm period in May 2017, while the geomagnetic storm of February 18–20, 2014 led to irregularities in these sectors, with complete suppression over the Pacific sector. This effect on irregularities is likely attributed to changes in IMF Bz components polarity and the associated amount of energy supplied to magnetosphere-ionosphere system during the geomagnetic storms in May 2017 and February 2014.
研究了2014年2月18日至20日和2017年5月27日至29日发生的地磁风暴期间垂直总电子含量（VTEC）的变化和电离层不规则性的存在。从位于赤道和美洲、太平洋、非洲和印度低纬度地区的卫星接收器获得的TEC数据进行了分析。此外，还利用了磁力计数据、赤道电场直接穿透模型（PPEEFM）、行星际磁场和电场数据。用TEC变化率（Rate of TEC change， ROTI）研究干扰引起的TEC变化。结果表明，2017年5月29日，印度部门的TEC显著增加约150%。同样，在风暴恢复阶段，太平洋部分的TEC增加（约240%），这可能归因于磁层和电离层电流的扰动。2014年2月19-20日地磁风暴期间，美国扇区出现了明显的正向风暴效应，TEC偏差高达220%。在主风暴阶段过后，太平洋扇区经历了大约300%的TEC偏差。研究还发现，在2017年5月的风暴期间，美洲、非洲和印度扇区的电离层异常被抑制，而2014年2月18日至20日的地磁风暴导致这些扇区的电离层异常，太平洋扇区完全被抑制。这种对不规则性的影响可能归因于2017年5月和2014年2月地磁风暴期间IMF Bz分量极性的变化以及向磁层-电离层系统提供的相关能量。
{"title":"Study of ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms on 27–29 May 2017 and 18–20 February 2014 along different longitudes","authors":"Asebe Oljira Geleta , Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.05.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.05.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span><span><span>The study examines the change in the vertical total electron content (VTEC) and the presence of </span>ionospheric irregularities during the geomagnetic storms that occurred on February 18–20, 2014 and May 27–29, 2017. TEC data from satellite receivers located in the equatorial and low latitude areas of the Americas, Pacific, Africa, and India were analyzed. In addition, magnetometer data, the Direct Penetration of Equatorial Electric Field Model (PPEEFM), </span>interplanetary magnetic fields, and electric field data were also used. The Rate of TEC change (ROTI) was used to investigate changes in TEC caused by disturbances. The results indicate that there was a significant increase in TEC </span><span><math><mrow><mo>≈</mo><mn>150</mn></mrow></math></span><span> % over the Indian sector on 29 May 2017. Similarly, during the recovery phase of the storm there was an increase in TEC (about 240 %) over the Pacific sector which may attributed disturbances in the magnetosphere and ionosphere currents. During the geomagnetic storm on February 19–20, 2014, there were noticeable positive storm effects over the American sector, with TEC deviations of up to 220 %. After the main storm phase, the Pacific sector experienced TEC deviations of around 300 %. The study also found that ionospheric irregularities were suppressed in the American, African, and Indian sectors during the storm period in May 2017, while the geomagnetic storm of February 18–20, 2014 led to irregularities in these sectors, with complete suppression over the Pacific sector. This effect on irregularities is likely attributed to changes in IMF Bz components polarity and the associated amount of energy supplied to magnetosphere-ionosphere system during the geomagnetic storms in May 2017 and February 2014.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 3","pages":"Pages 447-463"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145108314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2025.04.009
Carmen Pardini, Luciano Anselmo
The controlled and uncontrolled orbital re-entries occurred from 2010 to 2023 were reviewed. Excluding five Space Shuttle orbiters, the total mass re-entered into the atmosphere exceeded 4400 metric tons. In the five-year period 2019-2023, controlled re-entries accounted for nearly 62 % of the returned mass, including 31 % from Falcon 9 second stages alone, while uncontrolled re-entries of intact objects and large debris were responsible for the remaining 38 %. In 2023, the orbital re-entry mass dispersed as gas and particulate in the upper atmosphere was close to 600 metric tons.
The ground casualty probability associated with the uncontrolled re-entry of satellites, orbital stages and large debris varied, on an annual basis, from 0.8 % in 2010 to 3.5 % in 2023, assuming the complete demise of all objects of less than 300 kg. In 2023, 70 % of the casualty probability was associated with orbital stages, 20 % with satellites and 10 % with large fragments.
{"title":"Orbital re-entries of human-made space objects: Drawbacks for the upper atmosphere and the safety of people","authors":"Carmen Pardini, Luciano Anselmo","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.04.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.04.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The controlled and uncontrolled orbital re-entries occurred from 2010 to 2023 were reviewed. Excluding five Space Shuttle orbiters, the total mass re-entered into the atmosphere exceeded 4400 metric tons. In the five-year period 2019-2023, controlled re-entries accounted for nearly 62 % of the returned mass, including 31 % from Falcon 9 second stages alone, while uncontrolled re-entries of intact objects and large debris were responsible for the remaining 38 %. In 2023, the orbital re-entry mass dispersed as gas and particulate in the upper atmosphere was close to 600 metric tons.</div><div>The ground casualty probability associated with the uncontrolled re-entry of satellites, orbital stages and large debris varied, on an annual basis, from 0.8 % in 2010 to 3.5 % in 2023, assuming the complete demise of all objects of less than 300 kg. In 2023, 70 % of the casualty probability was associated with orbital stages, 20 % with satellites and 10 % with large fragments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 2","pages":"Pages 274-283"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study proposes a partially heat-cured space debris shield, where only some sheets of traditional multi-shock fabric shields are heat-cured. This approach simplifies on-orbit heat curing as it requires curing a smaller portion of material compared to fully heat-cured inflatable structures. Hypervelocity experiments examined the optimal placement of cured layers within the debris shield, showing that placing them on the upstream side of the first layer maximizes protection performance. This study assessed the protective performance of inflatable structures against space debris collision under consistent areal density conditions, highlighting the improved performance of multi-shock shields subjected to heat curing. Hypervelocity impact experiments revealed that the penetration area of partially heat-cured shields was significantly smaller than that of uncured shields, confirming the benefits of heat curing. We developed spread angle and ballistic limit equations for partial heat-cured shield applications. These equations verified that effective debris protection can be maintained with partial curing, even with reduced standoff. Numerical simulations using smoothed particle hydrodynamics corroborated the experimental results, indicating that strategically placed heat-cured layers enhance protection. Overall, these findings suggest that partially heat-cured shields improve the protection and deployment efficiency of inflatable structures in space.
{"title":"Partial heat curing enhancing space debris shielding performance in multi-layered inflatable structures","authors":"Hikaru Takahashi , Yoshihiro Sugiyama , Ryo Kuzuno , Sunao Hasegawa , Kiyonobu Ohtani , Yushin Hara , Kanjuro Makihara","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.04.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.04.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study proposes a partially heat-cured space debris shield, where only some sheets of traditional multi-shock fabric shields are heat-cured. This approach simplifies on-orbit heat curing as it requires curing a smaller portion of material compared to fully heat-cured inflatable structures. Hypervelocity experiments examined the optimal placement of cured layers within the debris shield, showing that placing them on the upstream side of the first layer maximizes protection performance. This study assessed the protective performance of inflatable structures against space debris collision under consistent areal density conditions, highlighting the improved performance of multi-shock shields subjected to heat curing. Hypervelocity impact experiments revealed that the penetration area of partially heat-cured shields was significantly smaller than that of uncured shields, confirming the benefits of heat curing. We developed spread angle and ballistic limit equations for partial heat-cured shield applications. These equations verified that effective debris protection can be maintained with partial curing, even with reduced standoff. Numerical simulations using smoothed particle hydrodynamics corroborated the experimental results, indicating that strategically placed heat-cured layers enhance protection. Overall, these findings suggest that partially heat-cured shields improve the protection and deployment efficiency of inflatable structures in space.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 2","pages":"Pages 253-265"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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