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Entitled and self-conscious? The ego-centric underpinnings of electoral preferences during the 2020 U.S. election 自以为是又自我意识强?2020年美国大选中选举偏好的自我中心基础
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680221145554
A. Tatum, Alessandro Nai
We investigate whether entitlement (feeling more deserving than others) and several dimensions of self-conscious affect (broadly reflecting responses to shame and guilt) are associated with voting intentions during the 2020 Presidential election in the USA. We utilized a sample of 443 adults recruited through Prolific. The sample was demographically representative with respect to age, gender, and race. Participants were recruited from 12 October 2020 to 15 October 2020, approximately 3 weeks before the national election held on 3 November 2020. Results reveal that higher entitlement beliefs are associated with support for Republicans, and so are shame proneness vis-à-vis behavioral avoidance (desire to hide) and blame externalization. Inversely, guilt proneness and shame proneness vis-à-vis negative self-evaluation is associated with support for Democrats. Results also suggest that shame proneness and blame externalization most closely correspond with voting preference; specifically, negative self-evaluation drives support for Democrats, whereas blame externalization and behavioral avoidance drives support for Republicans. While these effects are often only in the small-to-medium range in terms of magnitude, their implications for a more nuanced understanding of electoral politics—and its pitfalls—are noteworthy.
我们调查了权利(感觉比别人更值得)和自我意识影响的几个维度(广泛反映对羞耻和内疚的反应)是否与2020年美国总统选举期间的投票意图有关。我们使用了通过多产网站招募的443名成年人的样本。样本在年龄、性别和种族方面具有人口统计学代表性。参与者是在2020年10月12日至2020年10月15日招募的,大约在2020年11月3日举行的全国选举前三周。结果显示,更高的权利信念与对共和党的支持有关,对-à-vis行为回避(隐藏的欲望)和指责外化的羞耻倾向也是如此。相反,内疚倾向和羞耻倾向与-à-vis消极的自我评价与对民主党的支持有关。结果还表明,羞耻倾向和指责外化与投票偏好的关系最为密切;具体来说,消极的自我评价推动了对民主党人的支持,而指责外部化和行为回避推动了对共和党人的支持。虽然这些影响在量级上通常只是在小到中等范围内,但它们对更细致入微地理解选举政治及其陷阱的影响值得注意。
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引用次数: 0
Political shock and international students: Estimating the “Trump effect” 政治冲击与留学生:“特朗普效应”的估计
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680221141526
Mingsi Song, Quan Li
The negative “Trump Effect” on international students has attracted wide media and scholarly attention. Surprisingly, the best existing evidence remains anecdotal and case-based. In this study, we fill this important gap. We employ a difference-in-differences (DID) design to estimate the Trump effect for the US vis-a-vis various control groups: top 5, top 10, top 20, and all other countries that compete with the US. We find a statistically significant and negative Trump effect that drives international students from the US to competing destinations. Relative to the top five competitors, about 12% fewer students came to the US during the first 3 years of the Trump Presidency. The average treatment effect is statistically significant across the top 5, top 10, and top 20 destination groups but not for the group of all other destinations as a whole. Pairwise DID estimates between the US and 91 individual countries further indicate that the Trump effect is primarily driven by 26 host nations. These findings contribute to our understanding of Trump effects, student flows, and migration.
对留学生的负面“特朗普效应”引起了媒体和学术界的广泛关注。令人惊讶的是,现有最好的证据仍然是轶事和案例。在这项研究中,我们填补了这一重要空白。我们采用差异差异(DID)设计来估计美国相对于各种对照组的特朗普效应:前5名、前10名、前20名以及所有其他与美国竞争的国家。我们发现,在统计上显著且负面的特朗普效应驱使国际学生从美国前往竞争目的地。与前五名竞争对手相比,在特朗普总统任期的前三年,来美国的学生减少了约12%。前5名、前10名和前20名目的地组的平均治疗效果具有统计学意义,但并非所有其他目的地组作为一个整体。美国和91个国家之间的成对DID估计进一步表明,特朗普效应主要由26个东道国推动。这些发现有助于我们理解特朗普效应、学生流动和移民。
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引用次数: 0
Does sports success increase government support? Voter (ir)rationality in a multiparty context 体育运动的成功是否会增加政府的支持?多党背景下的选民理性
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680221122369
Lauri Rapeli, Peter Söderlund
A growing number of studies discuss the impact of non-political factors on the political success of incumbents. Theoretically, this literature addresses core ideas about electoral accountability and voter rationality. Scholars have explored factors such as shark attacks, weather, natural disasters, and sports results. So far, the evidence has been inconclusive and almost exclusively from majoritarian contexts, where government accountability is easy for voters to assign. We contribute with an analysis of whether nationally important sports success, such as Olympic gold medals, affect support for coalition governments in a multiparty context. We use monthly polling from Finland for a 28-year period from Jan 1994 to Dec 2021, which we combine with data on sports success. Our analysis shows that nationally important sports success has no impact on government popularity. The finding holds while controlling for traditional drivers of government popularity and across different operationalizations of government support and sports success. With this finding, the study joins several previous analyses, which have been supportive of voter rationality.
越来越多的研究讨论了非政治因素对现任者政治成功的影响。从理论上讲,这篇文献阐述了关于选举问责制和选民理性的核心思想。学者们探讨了鲨鱼袭击、天气、自然灾害和体育成绩等因素。到目前为止,证据还没有定论,几乎完全来自多数派的背景,在那里,选民很容易分配政府的责任。我们分析了国家重要体育项目的成功,如奥运金牌,是否会影响在多党背景下对联合政府的支持。我们使用芬兰从1994年1月到2021年12月的28年月度民意调查,并将其与体育成功数据相结合。我们的分析表明,具有全国重要性的体育运动的成功对政府的受欢迎程度没有影响。这一发现在控制政府受欢迎程度的传统驱动因素以及政府支持和体育成功的不同操作时都成立。有了这一发现,这项研究加入了之前的几项分析,这些分析一直支持选民的理性。
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引用次数: 1
Distributive politics as behavioral localism: Evidence from a vignette experiment in Hungary 作为行为地方主义的分配政治:来自匈牙利小插曲实验的证据
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680221122279
Daniel Kovarek
Recent literature on friends-and-neighbors voting focused on explaining citizens’ motives behind supporting local candidates; the cue-based account suggests that local ties signal accountability, constituency service orientation, and policy representation. Localism was also posited to serve as a cue for distributive politics, but assumptions of voters making inferences about receiving tangible benefits once a politician from their own stock is elected were not corroborated empirically. Drawing on a survey experiment (N = 2000) fielded in Hungary, the paper provides a test of pork barrel politics and clientelism serving as manifestations of behavioral localism; that is, if voters formulate expectations of politicians engaging in aforementioned practices based on their local roots. Respondents in treatment and control group were shown the same candidate profile, fictive politicians differing only in their local roots. Results demonstrate that respondents who were told that the candidate was born and living in their hometown were more likely to believe that the politician will “bring home the bacon” as opposed to those confronted with a randomly selected Hungarian settlement as the candidate’s birthplace and residence. Findings refine our understanding of friends-and-neighbors voting, as well as voters’ expectations about likely non-programmatic behavior of elected candidates.
最近关于朋友和邻居投票的文献集中在解释公民支持当地候选人背后的动机;基于线索的解释表明,地方联系标志着问责制、选区服务导向和政策代表性。地方主义也被假设为分配政治的线索,但选民推断一旦他们自己的政治家当选就会获得切实利益的假设并没有得到实证的证实。根据在匈牙利进行的一项调查实验(N = 2000),本文对猪肉桶政治和裙带主义作为行为地方主义的表现形式进行了检验;也就是说,如果选民根据他们的地方根源制定对政治家从事上述做法的期望。实验组和控制组的受访者被展示了相同的候选人简介,实际的政治家只在他们的地方根源上有所不同。结果表明,被告知候选人出生和生活在家乡的受访者更有可能相信这位政治家会“养家糊口”,而那些被告知候选人出生地和居住地是随机选择的匈牙利定居点的受访者则相反。研究结果完善了我们对朋友和邻居投票的理解,以及选民对当选候选人可能的非程序性行为的期望。
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引用次数: 3
Participation incentives in a survey of international non-profit professionals 对国际非营利专业人员的参与激励调查
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680221125723
Alauna C. Safarpour, S. Bush, Jennifer Hadden
Elite surveys are increasingly common in political science, but how best to motivate participation in them remains poorly understood. This study compares the effect of three treatments designed to increase participation in an online survey of international non-profit professionals: a monetary reward, an altruistic appeal emphasizing the study’s benefits, and a promise to give the respondent access to the study’s results. Only the monetary incentive increased the survey response rate. It did not decrease response quality as measured in terms of straight-lining or skipped questions, although it may have produced a pool of respondents more likely to speed through the survey. The findings suggest that monetary incentives reduce total survey error even in the context of an elite survey, perhaps especially with elite populations frequently contacted by researchers. However, such incentives may not be without trade-offs in terms of how carefully respondents engage with the survey.
精英调查在政治科学中越来越普遍,但如何最好地激励人们参与调查仍然知之甚少。本研究比较了三种旨在提高参与国际非营利专业人员在线调查的治疗方法的效果:金钱奖励,强调研究好处的利他主义呼吁,以及向受访者提供研究结果的承诺。只有金钱激励提高了调查回复率。从直接回答问题或跳过问题的角度来看,它并没有降低回答质量,尽管它可能会产生一批更有可能快速完成调查的受访者。研究结果表明,即使是在精英调查的背景下,金钱激励也能减少调查的总误差,尤其是在研究人员经常接触的精英人群中。然而,就受访者参与调查的认真程度而言,这种激励措施可能不是没有权衡的。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum: Do TJ policies cause backlash? Evidence from street name changes in Spain 更正:TJ政策会引起反弹吗?西班牙街道名称变化的证据
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680221126454
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引用次数: 0
How long does it take to admit that you do not know? Gender differences in response time to political knowledge questions 承认你不知道需要多长时间?政治知识问题回答时间的性别差异
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680221117454
Mónica Ferrín, Gema M. García-Albacete, Irene Sánchez-Vítores
The implications of the persistent gender gap in political knowledge are a puzzle that the literature is still disentangling; and research has evidenced important differences in the way women and men respond to survey questions. We argue in this article that political knowledge survey items not only inform about differences in cognition but also about other latent traits related to gender stereotyping. Gender stereotypes around political knowledge push men to be knowledgeable but not so much women, which we expect to affect men and women’s survey responses differently. To test this expectation, we explore response times of do not know answers to political knowledge items. Our results show that men, particularly those who declare being interested in politics, take longer than women to admit that they do not know the answer to political knowledge items.
政治知识中持续存在的性别差距的含义是一个文献仍在解开的谜题;研究表明,女性和男性在回答调查问题的方式上存在重要差异。我们在这篇文章中认为,政治知识调查项目不仅反映了认知差异,还反映了与性别刻板印象相关的其他潜在特征。围绕政治知识的性别刻板印象促使男性知识渊博,但女性知识不多,我们预计这会对男性和女性的调查反应产生不同的影响。为了检验这种期望,我们探究了政治知识项目的不知道答案的反应时间。我们的研究结果表明,男性,尤其是那些宣称对政治感兴趣的男性,比女性花更长的时间承认他们不知道政治知识项目的答案。
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引用次数: 2
Using party press releases and Wikipedia page view data to analyse developments and determinants of parties’ issue prevalence: Evidence for the right-wing populist ‘Alternative for Germany’ 利用政党新闻稿和维基百科页面浏览量数据分析政党议题流行度的发展和决定因素:右翼民粹主义“德国替代方案”的证据
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680221116570
M. Debus, Christoffer Florczak
We make use of party press releases and Wikipedia page view data to study issue dynamics and its determinants of a relatively young right-wing populist party. By applying structural topic models, we analyse 2262 press releases of the ‘Alternative for Germany’ (AfD) from 2013 until 2019. The findings reveal, first, that European integration, EU economic policy, and migration are prevalent topics, but that a change occurs over time so that the focus on economic policy decreases as the focus on migration policy increases. In addition, we show – by using novel data that provides information on the number of daily hits of entries in the German Wikipedia – that the AfD took the attention into account that people attached to European integration and migration issues when preparing their press releases. The results support the findings of existing studies and imply that the content of press releases can be used for measuring changes in the policy profile of parties during a legislative period when normally no manifestos are published, and that the interest in Wikipedia articles can serve as a proxy for the dynamics of issue salience among the population. Furthermore, the findings indicate that a combination of these two data sources is a fruitful approach for studying the determinants of short-term issue dynamics.
我们利用政党新闻稿和维基百科页面浏览量数据来研究一个相对年轻的右翼民粹主义政党的问题动态及其决定因素。通过应用结构性主题模型,我们分析了2013年至2019年“德国替代方案”(AfD)的2262篇新闻稿。研究结果显示,首先,欧洲一体化、欧盟经济政策和移民是普遍的话题,但随着时间的推移,对经济政策的关注减少了,而对移民政策的关注增加了。此外,我们通过使用提供德语维基百科条目每日点击量信息的新数据表明,德国新选择党在准备新闻稿时考虑到了人们对欧洲一体化和移民问题的关注。研究结果支持了现有研究的发现,并暗示新闻稿的内容可以用来衡量在立法期间政党政策轮廓的变化,而通常没有发表宣言,对维基百科文章的兴趣可以作为人口中问题显著性动态的代理。此外,研究结果表明,这两个数据源的组合是研究短期问题动态决定因素的有效方法。
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引用次数: 1
Constructing generalizable geographic natural experiments 构建可推广的地理自然实验
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680221113763
Owura Kuffuor, G. Visconti, Kayla M Young
A natural experiment is a real-world situation that generates as-if random or haphazard assignment to treatment. Geographic or administrative boundaries can be exploited as natural experiments to construct treated and control groups. Previous research has demonstrated that matching can help enhance these designs by reducing imbalances on observed covariates. An important limitation of this empirical approach, however, is that the results are inherently local. While the treated and control groups may be quite similar to each other, they could be substantially different from the target population of interest (e.g., a country). We propose a simple design inspired by the idea of template matching to construct generalizable geographic natural experiments. By matching our treated and control groups to a template (i.e., the target population), we obtain groups that are similar to the target population of interest and to each other, which can increase both the internal and external validity of the study.
自然实验是一种真实世界的情况,它会产生随机或偶然的治疗分配。地理或行政边界可以作为自然实验来构建实验组和对照组。先前的研究表明,匹配可以通过减少观察到的协变量的不平衡来帮助增强这些设计。然而,这种经验方法的一个重要限制是,结果本质上是局部的。虽然治疗组和对照组可能彼此非常相似,但它们可能与感兴趣的目标人群(例如,一个国家)有很大不同。我们提出了一种基于模板匹配思想的简单设计来构建可推广的地理自然实验。通过将实验组和对照组与模板(即目标人群)进行匹配,我们获得了与感兴趣的目标人群相似且彼此相似的群体,这可以增加研究的内部和外部有效性。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of emotions on polarization. Anger polarizes attitudes towards vaccine mandates and increases affective polarization 情绪对两极分化的影响。愤怒使人们对疫苗强制令的态度两极分化,并加剧情感两极分化
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680221116571
Chris Nguyen, S. Mayer, Susanne Veit
When does anger lead to greater polarization? As societal polarization and political polarization increase so does academic interest in its antecedents. One important cause of polarization appears to be anger. However, existing research linking anger and political polarization has focused primarily on the context of partisanship and did not distinguish between different types of anger nor different forms of polarization. To address this gap in the literature, we analyze how generalized versus issue-specific anger amplify issue-based and affective polarization in the highly charged context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We test these relationships through a survey experiment embedded in a national German sample (n = 2857) and show that anger is linked to polarization. However, we also show that different forms of anger influence different aspects of polarization. Issue polarization is driven primarily by generalized anger, while corona-specific anger increases affective polarization. Together, these results underline the importance of understanding the emotional nuances of polarization. More generally, the results illustrate the problems policy makers face when navigating heavily contested and emotionally charged topics. While increased anger may be helpful for mobilizing support among already supportive citizens, it does little to convince skeptical citizens and carries the cost of increasing societal polarization.
什么时候愤怒会导致两极分化?随着社会两极分化和政治两极分化的加剧,学术界对其起源的兴趣也在增加。两极分化的一个重要原因似乎是愤怒。然而,现有的将愤怒和政治两极分化联系起来的研究主要集中在党派关系的背景下,没有区分不同类型的愤怒和不同形式的两极分化。为了解决文献中的这一空白,我们分析了在COVID-19大流行的高度紧张背景下,广义愤怒与特定问题愤怒如何放大基于问题的情感两极分化。我们通过一项嵌入德国全国样本(n = 2857)的调查实验来测试这些关系,并表明愤怒与两极分化有关。然而,我们也表明,不同形式的愤怒影响两极分化的不同方面。问题两极分化主要是由普遍的愤怒驱动的,而特定于冠状病毒的愤怒会增加情感两极分化。总之,这些结果强调了理解两极分化的情感细微差别的重要性。更普遍地说,这些结果说明了政策制定者在处理争议很大、情绪激动的话题时面临的问题。虽然愤怒的增加可能有助于动员已经支持的公民的支持,但它对说服持怀疑态度的公民几乎没有帮助,而且会带来社会两极分化加剧的代价。
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引用次数: 4
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Research and Politics
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