Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680221137136
Andrew M. Bell, Christopher D. DeSante, Thomas Gift, C. Smith
Can accessing a partisan media environment—irrespective of its content—change how Americans interpret and assess news? We examine this question by focusing on one of the most fraught issues in American society: racial justice. Although studies suggest that repeated exposure to right-leaning media messaging can amplify racial resentment, we leverage a pair of survey experiments to test whether merely seeing a conservative media masthead can make Whites render justice with racialized considerations. Results show that—even keeping the content of stories identical—entering a simulated right-leaning media environment significantly conditions racial attitudes. We find evidence of both anti-Black and pro-White biases that are activated when respondents consume information under the Fox News masthead. This study has important implications for understanding how partisan media priming shapes political views and the distinctive nature of racism in America.
{"title":"Entering the “foxhole”: Partisan media priming and the application of racial justice in America","authors":"Andrew M. Bell, Christopher D. DeSante, Thomas Gift, C. Smith","doi":"10.1177/20531680221137136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680221137136","url":null,"abstract":"Can accessing a partisan media environment—irrespective of its content—change how Americans interpret and assess news? We examine this question by focusing on one of the most fraught issues in American society: racial justice. Although studies suggest that repeated exposure to right-leaning media messaging can amplify racial resentment, we leverage a pair of survey experiments to test whether merely seeing a conservative media masthead can make Whites render justice with racialized considerations. Results show that—even keeping the content of stories identical—entering a simulated right-leaning media environment significantly conditions racial attitudes. We find evidence of both anti-Black and pro-White biases that are activated when respondents consume information under the Fox News masthead. This study has important implications for understanding how partisan media priming shapes political views and the distinctive nature of racism in America.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44879844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680221137143
Michael J. Barber, R. Davis
Do partisans view members of the other party as having lower moral status? While research shows that partisans view the out-group quite poorly, we show that affective polarization extends to expressing a willingness to sacrifice an out-partisan’s life. We report the first study to consider partisanship in the classic “trolley problem” in which respondents are asked whether they would sacrifice an individual’s life in order to save the life of five individuals. We explore this issue with a nationally representative survey experiment in the United States, inquiring about politicized variants of the trolley problem case. First, we vary the political affiliations of both the group of five (to be saved by turning the trolley) and the single individual (to be sacrificed by turning the trolley). We find that individuals are less willing to sacrifice a co-partisan for the sake of a group of out-partisans. These findings go beyond earlier work by suggesting that partisans not only hold negative attitudes and judgments toward political out-groups but also they will at least signal approval of differing moral treatment. We take stock of how these results bear on normative questions in democratic theory.
{"title":"Partisanship and the trolley problem: Partisan willingness to sacrifice members of the other party","authors":"Michael J. Barber, R. Davis","doi":"10.1177/20531680221137143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680221137143","url":null,"abstract":"Do partisans view members of the other party as having lower moral status? While research shows that partisans view the out-group quite poorly, we show that affective polarization extends to expressing a willingness to sacrifice an out-partisan’s life. We report the first study to consider partisanship in the classic “trolley problem” in which respondents are asked whether they would sacrifice an individual’s life in order to save the life of five individuals. We explore this issue with a nationally representative survey experiment in the United States, inquiring about politicized variants of the trolley problem case. First, we vary the political affiliations of both the group of five (to be saved by turning the trolley) and the single individual (to be sacrificed by turning the trolley). We find that individuals are less willing to sacrifice a co-partisan for the sake of a group of out-partisans. These findings go beyond earlier work by suggesting that partisans not only hold negative attitudes and judgments toward political out-groups but also they will at least signal approval of differing moral treatment. We take stock of how these results bear on normative questions in democratic theory.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44849587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680221130695
Efrén O. Pérez, A. Ramos, Bianca V. Vicuña
Drawing on social identity theory, we predicted that affirming Black and Latino individuals as American would undermine solidarity between people of color (PoC), who are broadly stereotyped by society as un-American. We tested this prediction in two pre-registered experiments with Black and Latino adults (N = 1,880), where participants read about another minoritized group’s contribution to U.S. culture (i.e., Latino people: reggaetón and hip hop; Black people: jazz and hip hop). Reading about Latinos’ musical contributions to U.S. culture insignificantly reduced Black solidarity with PoC, although an increase in Black solidarity with PoC unexpectedly boosted support for pro-Latino policies. In turn, reading about Black contributions to U.S. culture surprisingly increased Latino solidarity with PoC, which then substantially heightened pro-Black policy support. This unanticipated mediation effect is statistically robust and substantively meaningful. We explain how these contradictory results help advance research on the conditions that catalyze solidarity between PoC.
{"title":"Does affirming Black and Latino people as American weaken racial solidarity? A surprising “no” from two pre-registered experiments","authors":"Efrén O. Pérez, A. Ramos, Bianca V. Vicuña","doi":"10.1177/20531680221130695","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680221130695","url":null,"abstract":"Drawing on social identity theory, we predicted that affirming Black and Latino individuals as American would undermine solidarity between people of color (PoC), who are broadly stereotyped by society as un-American. We tested this prediction in two pre-registered experiments with Black and Latino adults (N = 1,880), where participants read about another minoritized group’s contribution to U.S. culture (i.e., Latino people: reggaetón and hip hop; Black people: jazz and hip hop). Reading about Latinos’ musical contributions to U.S. culture insignificantly reduced Black solidarity with PoC, although an increase in Black solidarity with PoC unexpectedly boosted support for pro-Latino policies. In turn, reading about Black contributions to U.S. culture surprisingly increased Latino solidarity with PoC, which then substantially heightened pro-Black policy support. This unanticipated mediation effect is statistically robust and substantively meaningful. We explain how these contradictory results help advance research on the conditions that catalyze solidarity between PoC.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46967335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680221134999
M. J. Nelson, Taran Samarth
Prosecutors have immense discretion to determine which offenses to charge, which cases to take to trial, and which sentences to recommend. Yet, even though many of the prosecutors who exercise this discretion over important crimes must face the electorate to keep their jobs, we know little about how the use of this discretion affects prosecutors’ electoral fortunes. Drawing on two experiments embedded in a nationally representative survey, we demonstrate that the public is more supportive of prosecutors who issue lenient sentences for low-level crimes. The results have important implications for criminal justice reform inasmuch as they provide a linkage between progressive prosecutorial behavior and respondents’ vote intentions.
{"title":"Judging prosecutors: Public support for prosecutorial discretion","authors":"M. J. Nelson, Taran Samarth","doi":"10.1177/20531680221134999","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680221134999","url":null,"abstract":"Prosecutors have immense discretion to determine which offenses to charge, which cases to take to trial, and which sentences to recommend. Yet, even though many of the prosecutors who exercise this discretion over important crimes must face the electorate to keep their jobs, we know little about how the use of this discretion affects prosecutors’ electoral fortunes. Drawing on two experiments embedded in a nationally representative survey, we demonstrate that the public is more supportive of prosecutors who issue lenient sentences for low-level crimes. The results have important implications for criminal justice reform inasmuch as they provide a linkage between progressive prosecutorial behavior and respondents’ vote intentions.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42844114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680221136088
A. Blackman, Sarah Kammourh, Elizabeth R. Nugent
We analyze whether exposure to state violence affects substance use at the individual level. In doing so, we bring together the political science and public health literatures on the effects of violence, analyzing an outcome that is neglected in political science and a type of violence that remains understudied in public health. We leverage a unique panel study, the Population Council’s Survey of Young People in Egypt (SYPE), to test whether rates of substance use are higher among those who were exposed to violence during the country’s 2011 revolution, a moment of intense state violence against civilians. Results demonstrate that direct exposure to state violence increases substance use; respondents exposed to violence are significantly more likely to use drugs, alcohol, and tobacco than those who were not. Our findings are robust to specifications that control for respondents’ reported exposure to state violence prior to the revolution and substance use among family and friends, factors identified in medical research as key predictors. Our study sheds light on a fundamental predicament of authoritarian governance and the downstream effects of state violence.
{"title":"Exposure to state violence and substance use","authors":"A. Blackman, Sarah Kammourh, Elizabeth R. Nugent","doi":"10.1177/20531680221136088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680221136088","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze whether exposure to state violence affects substance use at the individual level. In doing so, we bring together the political science and public health literatures on the effects of violence, analyzing an outcome that is neglected in political science and a type of violence that remains understudied in public health. We leverage a unique panel study, the Population Council’s Survey of Young People in Egypt (SYPE), to test whether rates of substance use are higher among those who were exposed to violence during the country’s 2011 revolution, a moment of intense state violence against civilians. Results demonstrate that direct exposure to state violence increases substance use; respondents exposed to violence are significantly more likely to use drugs, alcohol, and tobacco than those who were not. Our findings are robust to specifications that control for respondents’ reported exposure to state violence prior to the revolution and substance use among family and friends, factors identified in medical research as key predictors. Our study sheds light on a fundamental predicament of authoritarian governance and the downstream effects of state violence.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47466045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680221134969
K. Ash
An article recently published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution by Koos and Nuepert-Wentz finds an association between geographically proximate polygynous ethnic groups and rural violence in Africa. This study applies several empirical adjustments to their analysis. The association between rural violence and polygynous neighbors loses significance when replacing violent events with fatalities in both ACLED and UCDP-GED data or converting event counts to binary. Subsetting Afrobarometer data by urban and rural respondents shows that rural respondents from polygynous groups are not significantly more likely to feel violence is justified. Moreover, there is no evidence the conflicts leading to the most rural violence in ACLED, farmer-herder clashes, or UCDP-GED, violence during the apartheid transition in South Africa, are related to “excess men.” Both conflicts suggest broader violations in the assumptions made in hypothesizing why polygynous neighbors lead to rural violence. The re-analysis calls the claim that polygyny is associated with rural violence into question and suggests researchers use broader approaches to measuring violence than just event counts.
{"title":"Does polygyny cause intergroup conflict? Re-examining Koos and Neupert-Wentz (2020)","authors":"K. Ash","doi":"10.1177/20531680221134969","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680221134969","url":null,"abstract":"An article recently published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution by Koos and Nuepert-Wentz finds an association between geographically proximate polygynous ethnic groups and rural violence in Africa. This study applies several empirical adjustments to their analysis. The association between rural violence and polygynous neighbors loses significance when replacing violent events with fatalities in both ACLED and UCDP-GED data or converting event counts to binary. Subsetting Afrobarometer data by urban and rural respondents shows that rural respondents from polygynous groups are not significantly more likely to feel violence is justified. Moreover, there is no evidence the conflicts leading to the most rural violence in ACLED, farmer-herder clashes, or UCDP-GED, violence during the apartheid transition in South Africa, are related to “excess men.” Both conflicts suggest broader violations in the assumptions made in hypothesizing why polygynous neighbors lead to rural violence. The re-analysis calls the claim that polygyny is associated with rural violence into question and suggests researchers use broader approaches to measuring violence than just event counts.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47038562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680221141754
Sofia Breitenstein, E. Anduiza, Jordi Muñoz
Direct estimates based on election returns show that corruption is mildly punished at the polls. A large majority of survey respondents, however, often tend to state that they do not like corruption and will not support corrupt politicians. This has been interpreted as a product of social desirability bias: interviewees prefer to report socially accepted attitudes (rejection of corruption) instead of truthful responses (intention to vote for their preferred candidates regardless of malfeasance). We test to what extent this is the case by using a list experiment that allows interviewees to be questioned in an unobtrusive way, removing the possible effects of social desirability. Our results show that the great majority of respondents report intentions to electorally punish allegedly corrupt candidates even when asked in an unobtrusive way. We discuss the implications of this finding for the limited electoral accountability of corruption.
{"title":"Do they really care? Social desirability bias in attitudes towards corruption","authors":"Sofia Breitenstein, E. Anduiza, Jordi Muñoz","doi":"10.1177/20531680221141754","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680221141754","url":null,"abstract":"Direct estimates based on election returns show that corruption is mildly punished at the polls. A large majority of survey respondents, however, often tend to state that they do not like corruption and will not support corrupt politicians. This has been interpreted as a product of social desirability bias: interviewees prefer to report socially accepted attitudes (rejection of corruption) instead of truthful responses (intention to vote for their preferred candidates regardless of malfeasance). We test to what extent this is the case by using a list experiment that allows interviewees to be questioned in an unobtrusive way, removing the possible effects of social desirability. Our results show that the great majority of respondents report intentions to electorally punish allegedly corrupt candidates even when asked in an unobtrusive way. We discuss the implications of this finding for the limited electoral accountability of corruption.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45444694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680221142693
Diogo Ferrari
In recent years, a wave of populist leaders has emerged in many democratic countries, including the United States. Previous studies have argued that populist rhetoric matters for leaders’ electoral support because the public has populist attitudes, which are activated in contexts of failure of democratic governance or economic crises. This paper investigates the opposite causal direction and argues that people’s support for populist ideas can be an effect rather than a cause of leaders’ electoral support. People who support a candidate due to the candidate’s party affiliation or policy position tend to support or oppose populist or anti-populist messages if they learn that the candidate of the party they identify with supports that message. The paper investigates the argument with an experiment that randomly assigns (anti-)populist messages and a cue about the candidate that supports the message. The experiment shows that voters’ party identification largely affects support for both populist and anti-populist messages.
{"title":"The effect of party identification and party cues on populist attitudes","authors":"Diogo Ferrari","doi":"10.1177/20531680221142693","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680221142693","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, a wave of populist leaders has emerged in many democratic countries, including the United States. Previous studies have argued that populist rhetoric matters for leaders’ electoral support because the public has populist attitudes, which are activated in contexts of failure of democratic governance or economic crises. This paper investigates the opposite causal direction and argues that people’s support for populist ideas can be an effect rather than a cause of leaders’ electoral support. People who support a candidate due to the candidate’s party affiliation or policy position tend to support or oppose populist or anti-populist messages if they learn that the candidate of the party they identify with supports that message. The paper investigates the argument with an experiment that randomly assigns (anti-)populist messages and a cue about the candidate that supports the message. The experiment shows that voters’ party identification largely affects support for both populist and anti-populist messages.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41690926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680221136089
A. Helgason, Vittorio Mérola
The Panama Papers disclosures in April 2016 revealed information about tax avoidance and fraud among political elites and the wealthy on a global scale. But did the disclosures affect relevant political attitudes and behavior, including perceptions of corruption, redistributive preferences, and voting intentions? We leverage nationally representative surveys that were in the field at the time in two heavily impacted countries, France and Spain, and treat the disclosures as a natural experiment, comparing respondents questioned just before and just after the disclosures. Our design highlights the difficulty, at times, of interpreting natural experiments, given the potentially compounded treatments that arise as events unfold over time, and the common inability to properly determine views prior to the treatment. That said, the analysis indicates that the disclosures had limited effects on the domains most likely affected by such a scandal, consistent with them being interpreted based on existing beliefs and identities. Our results thus contradict prior findings which suggest that the Panama Papers had substantial effects on redistributive attitudes, and shed further light on voters’ learning and updating around uncertain, yet emotionally laden, political facts.
{"title":"The impact of real world information shocks on political attitudes: Evidence from the Panama Papers disclosures","authors":"A. Helgason, Vittorio Mérola","doi":"10.1177/20531680221136089","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680221136089","url":null,"abstract":"The Panama Papers disclosures in April 2016 revealed information about tax avoidance and fraud among political elites and the wealthy on a global scale. But did the disclosures affect relevant political attitudes and behavior, including perceptions of corruption, redistributive preferences, and voting intentions? We leverage nationally representative surveys that were in the field at the time in two heavily impacted countries, France and Spain, and treat the disclosures as a natural experiment, comparing respondents questioned just before and just after the disclosures. Our design highlights the difficulty, at times, of interpreting natural experiments, given the potentially compounded treatments that arise as events unfold over time, and the common inability to properly determine views prior to the treatment. That said, the analysis indicates that the disclosures had limited effects on the domains most likely affected by such a scandal, consistent with them being interpreted based on existing beliefs and identities. Our results thus contradict prior findings which suggest that the Panama Papers had substantial effects on redistributive attitudes, and shed further light on voters’ learning and updating around uncertain, yet emotionally laden, political facts.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43727097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680221141523
S. Garside, Haoyu Zhai
Can first-hand experience of a climate-related natural disaster make citizens more likely to vote in favour of progressive climate politics? Leveraging the rare occurrence of a large-scale disaster just two months before a federal election, we use a difference-in-differences design to study the short-term electoral effects of the devastating 2021 Germany floods on voter support for Germany’s major environmentalist party, the Green Party. Compared to other German voters, those living in areas affected by the floods were marginally (0.4–1.6 percentage points) more likely to vote for the Greens. The largest increases in Green vote share are observed in municipalities which were directly exposed to flooding. Contrary to expectation, we tend to find larger increases in Green Party support in the less severely affected areas. Despite substantial increases in turnout in affected areas, we find that the observed increase in vote share for the Greens was rather driven by a persuasion effect on voters who previously supported other parties. In the absence of evidence that the floods led to an increase in voters’ issue prioritisation of climate change, our results highlight the limited possibility for major natural disasters to induce increased localised support for Green parties.
{"title":"If not now, when? Climate disaster and the Green vote following the 2021 Germany floods","authors":"S. Garside, Haoyu Zhai","doi":"10.1177/20531680221141523","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680221141523","url":null,"abstract":"Can first-hand experience of a climate-related natural disaster make citizens more likely to vote in favour of progressive climate politics? Leveraging the rare occurrence of a large-scale disaster just two months before a federal election, we use a difference-in-differences design to study the short-term electoral effects of the devastating 2021 Germany floods on voter support for Germany’s major environmentalist party, the Green Party. Compared to other German voters, those living in areas affected by the floods were marginally (0.4–1.6 percentage points) more likely to vote for the Greens. The largest increases in Green vote share are observed in municipalities which were directly exposed to flooding. Contrary to expectation, we tend to find larger increases in Green Party support in the less severely affected areas. Despite substantial increases in turnout in affected areas, we find that the observed increase in vote share for the Greens was rather driven by a persuasion effect on voters who previously supported other parties. In the absence of evidence that the floods led to an increase in voters’ issue prioritisation of climate change, our results highlight the limited possibility for major natural disasters to induce increased localised support for Green parties.","PeriodicalId":37327,"journal":{"name":"Research and Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48932564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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