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The political benefits of student loan debt relief 学生贷款债务减免的政治利益
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680231174079
Mallory E. SoRelle, Serena Laws
Are people likely to reward politicians who support canceling student loan debt? This paper draws on original conjoint and survey experimental data to assess the effects of student debt relief proposals on voter behavior. Using data collected 3 months prior to Biden’s announcement of a specific plan for broad-based student debt relief, the paper addresses two interrelated questions: How do policy details—such as eligibility restrictions and the amount of debt canceled—shape voter support for candidates who embrace student loan cancellation? And second, will executive action by President Biden increase Democrats’ chances of winning in 2022 or 2024? We find evidence to suggest that candidates who support student debt relief plans offering generous debt cancellation while minimizing eligibility restrictions get the largest boost in support from voters, especially for key Democratic constituencies. We also find that executive action on student debt increases the likelihood that key groups would support Democratic congressional candidates in upcoming electoral contests. These results offer the first systematic evidence exploring the potential political ramifications of enacting student debt relief.
人们可能会奖励那些支持取消学生贷款债务的政客吗?本文利用原始的联合和调查实验数据来评估学生债务减免提案对选民行为的影响。该论文利用拜登宣布广泛学生债务减免具体计划前3个月收集的数据,解决了两个相互关联的问题:政策细节——如资格限制和取消的债务金额——如何影响选民对支持取消学生贷款的候选人的支持?其次,拜登总统的行政行动会增加民主党在2022年或2024年获胜的机会吗?我们发现有证据表明,支持学生债务减免计划的候选人在最大限度地减少资格限制的同时,慷慨地取消债务,他们得到了选民的最大支持,尤其是对关键的民主党选区。我们还发现,针对学生债务的行政行动增加了关键群体在即将到来的选举中支持民主党国会候选人的可能性。这些结果为探索颁布学生债务减免的潜在政治影响提供了第一个系统的证据。
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引用次数: 0
The (racial) implications of “special favors” “特殊优待”的(种族)含义
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680231170121
Nicholas T. Davis
In this short manuscript, I explore the predictive validity of a common component of racial resentment—(dis)agreement with the idea that minority racial groups need special favors to get ahead. Specifically, this analysis takes advantage of different “special favors” questions included in the Cooperative Congressional Election Studies (CCES) 2012-2014 Panel Study to assess whether affirmative action preferences are uniquely racialized. I find that (1) respondents react differently to the special favors instrument on the basis of the racial group in question, (2) these assessments vary among liberals and conservatives, and (3) they predict racialized outcomes stereotypically associated with a given racial group. These findings dovetail with recent work that illustrates an ideological sorting of such measures, while offering modest evidence that a prominent instrument used in symbolic racism scales is, in fact, race-coded to specific target groups.
在这篇简短的手稿中,我探讨了种族怨恨的一个常见组成部分的预测有效性——与少数种族群体需要特殊优待才能获得成功的观点一致。具体而言,这项分析利用了2012-2014年国会选举合作研究(CCES)小组研究中包含的不同“特殊优惠”问题,来评估平权行动偏好是否具有独特的种族化。我发现(1)受访者对特殊优待工具的反应因所涉种族群体而异,(2)这些评估在自由派和保守派之间有所不同,(3)他们预测了与特定种族群体刻板相关的种族化结果。这些发现与最近的工作相吻合,这些工作说明了对这些措施的意识形态分类,同时提供了适度的证据,证明象征性种族主义量表中使用的一个突出工具实际上是针对特定目标群体的种族编码。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing survey mode effects in the 2019 EP elections: A comparison of online and face-to-face-survey data from six European countries 评估调查模式对2019年欧洲议会选举的影响:来自六个欧洲国家的在线和面对面调查数据的比较
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680231167941
Lea Heyne
The quality of online survey data is sometimes seen as inferior compared to probabilistic face-to-face surveys. Extending existing research beyond the commonly studied cases, we analyse six European countries, comparing data from a representative online survey fielded for the 2019 EP elections to the European Social Survey 9 and EB 91.5. We assess the effects of survey mode in terms of representativeness compared to validated benchmarks, as well as with inferences about party identification and vote choice. While we do find some differences in the marginal distributions compared to sociodemographic and electoral benchmarks, the inferential models when using online survey data as compared to face-to-face surveys are not substantially different.
在线调查数据的质量有时被认为不如概率面对面的调查。在现有研究的基础上,我们分析了六个欧洲国家,将2019年欧洲议会选举的代表性在线调查数据与欧洲社会调查9和eb91.5进行了比较。我们在代表性方面评估了调查模式的效果,与有效的基准相比,以及对政党认同和投票选择的推断。虽然我们确实发现与社会人口统计和选举基准相比,边际分布存在一些差异,但使用在线调查数据时的推断模型与面对面调查相比并没有实质性差异。
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引用次数: 0
How do researchers choose their goals of inference? A survey experiment on the effects of the state of research and method preferences on the choice between research goals 研究人员如何选择他们的推理目标?研究状态和方法偏好对研究目标选择影响的调查实验
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680231170969
Felix S. Bethke, I. Rohlfing
In empirical research, scholars can choose between an exploratory causes-of-effects analysis, a confirmatory effects-of-causes approach, or a mechanism-of-effects analysis that can be either exploratory or confirmatory. Understanding the choice between the approaches is important for two reasons. First, the added value of each approach depends on how much is known about the phenomenon of interest at the time of the analysis. Second, because of the specializations of methods, there are benefits to a division of labor between researchers who have expertise in the application of a given method. In this preregistered study, we test two hypotheses that follow from these arguments. We theorize that exploratory research is chosen when little is known about a phenomenon and a confirmatory approach is taken when more knowledge is available. A complementary hypothesis is that quantitative researchers opt for confirmatory designs and qualitative researchers for exploration because of their academic socialization. We test the hypotheses with a survey experiment of more than 900 political scientists from the United States and Europe. The results indicate that the state of knowledge has a significant and sizeable effect on the choice of the approach. In contrast, the evidence about the effect of methods expertise is more ambivalent.
在实证研究中,学者们可以选择探索性的因果分析,验证性的因果分析方法,或者可以是探索性的或验证性的效果机制分析。理解两种方法之间的选择很重要,原因有二。首先,每种方法的附加价值取决于在分析时对感兴趣的现象的了解程度。第二,由于方法的专门化,在应用某一特定方法方面具有专门知识的研究人员之间进行分工是有好处的。在这个预注册的研究中,我们测试了两个假设,从这些论点。我们的理论是,当对一种现象知之甚少时,我们会选择探索性研究,而当有更多的知识可用时,我们会采取验证性方法。一个互补的假设是,定量研究者因为学术社会化而选择验证性设计,而定性研究者选择探索性设计。我们通过对来自美国和欧洲的900多名政治学家的调查实验来检验这些假设。结果表明,知识状态对方法的选择有显著且相当大的影响。相比之下,关于方法专业知识影响的证据则更加矛盾。
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引用次数: 0
Reevaluating the policy success of private members bills 重新评价民间议员法案的政策效果
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680231181750
Amnon Cavari, Maoz Rosenthal, Ilana Shpaizman
Members of parliament routinely submit private bills. Yet, a minority of these bills are enacted. Existing research suggests that, because of the low enaction rates of private members' bills, policymaking motivation is not the primary purpose of members of parliament in submitting these bills. We question this assumption and argue that existing research examines the policy effect of Private Member Bills (PMB) too narrowly. Taking a policy process perspective, we propose, first, that a more accurate assessment of the success rate of private members' bills should look only at the bills entering the legislative process. Second, we propose that the policy effect of private members' bills should not be limited to the end result of enactment, but rather to examine their effect on the agenda-setting stage. We demonstrate these propositions using the case of private members' bills in Israel, a country that has one of the highest rates of PMBs and has institutionalized the process of evaluating them. The study provides a better understanding of private members' bills in parliamentary democracies.
议员们经常提交私人法案。然而,这些法案中有少数是通过的。现有研究表明,由于私人议员法案的颁布率较低,决策动机不是议员提交这些法案的主要目的。我们质疑这一假设,并认为现有的研究过于狭隘地审视私人议员法案的政策效果。从政策程序的角度来看,我们建议,首先,对私人议员法案的成功率进行更准确的评估,应该只关注进入立法程序的法案。第二,我们建议私人议员条例草案的政策效果,不应局限于立法的最终结果,而应研究其对议程制定阶段的影响。我们以以色列的私人成员法案为例来证明这些主张,以色列是PMB比率最高的国家之一,并已将评估过程制度化。这项研究提供了对议会民主国家中私人议员法案的更好理解。
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引用次数: 0
New data, new results? How data sources and vintages affect the replicability of research 新数据,新结果?数据来源和年份如何影响研究的可重复性
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680231170502
Iasmin Goes
Macroeconomic variables like unemployment, inflation, trade, or GDP are not set in stone: they are preliminary estimates that are constantly revised by statistical agencies. These data revisions, or data vintages, often provide conflicting information about the size of a country’s economy or its level of development, reducing our confidence in established findings. Would researchers come to different conclusions if they used different vintages? To answer this question, I survey all articles published in a top political science journal between 2005 and 2020. I replicate three prominent articles and find that the use of different vintages can lead to different statistical results, calling into question the robustness of otherwise rigorous empirical research. These findings have two practical implications. First, researchers should always be transparent about their data sources and vintages. Second, researchers should be more modest about the precision and accuracy of their point estimates, since these estimates can mask large measurement errors.
失业、通货膨胀、贸易或GDP等宏观经济变量并不是一成不变的:它们是统计机构不断修正的初步估计。这些数据修订或数据年份往往提供了关于一个国家经济规模或发展水平的相互矛盾的信息,降低了我们对既定调查结果的信心。如果研究人员使用不同的年份,他们会得出不同的结论吗?为了回答这个问题,我调查了2005年至2020年间发表在顶级政治学杂志上的所有文章。我复制了三篇著名的文章,发现使用不同的年份会导致不同的统计结果,这让人对严格的实证研究的稳健性产生了质疑。这些发现具有两个实际意义。首先,研究人员应该始终对他们的数据来源和年份保持透明。其次,研究人员应该对他们的点估计的精度和准确性更加谨慎,因为这些估计可以掩盖巨大的测量误差。
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引用次数: 1
Voters don’t care too much about policy: How politicians conceive of voting motives 选民不太关心政策:政治家如何看待投票动机
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680231176180
Karolin Soontjens
Politicians’ perceptions of how citizens decide which party to vote for matter for how they behave in between elections. Yet, except for three older studies, a systematic assessment of how political actors today conceive of citizens’ voting motives is non-existent. This study’s goal is to fill the empirical lacuna by asking a large number of Belgian Members of Parliament what they believe determines citizens’ party choice. It shows that few politicians believe that citizens do their democratic duty and vote for a party because of its policy profile. In politicians’ conception, voters hardly take into account the party’s policy promises for the future nor the party’s past behavior when casting their vote. Instead, most MPs believe that citizens are seduced to vote for a party because of individual candidates on the party list, and because of the party’s campaign communications. These findings matter for substantive representation.
政客们对公民如何决定投票给哪个政党的看法,决定了他们在两次选举之间的表现。然而,除了三项较老的研究外,对当今政治行为者如何看待公民投票动机的系统评估并不存在。这项研究的目的是通过询问大量比利时国会议员,他们认为什么决定了公民的政党选择,来填补经验空白。这表明,很少有政治家相信公民会因为一个政党的政策形象而履行民主义务并投票给它。在政客的观念中,选民在投票时几乎没有考虑到该党对未来的政策承诺,也没有考虑该党过去的行为。相反,大多数议员认为,公民之所以被引诱投票给一个政党,是因为政党名单上的个别候选人,以及该党的竞选宣传。这些调查结果对实质性陈述很重要。
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引用次数: 0
Getting a Seat at the Table: Changes in Military Participation in Government and Coups 在谈判桌上就座:军队参与政府和政变的变化
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680231154838
Peter B. White
Why do coups happen and how can state leaders affect their likelihood? Existing research focuses on structural factors as well as “coup-proofing” as drivers of coup risk. I argue that the literature misses an important alternative avenue by which leaders affect the likelihood that their militaries remove them from office: adding or removing military officers from the government. When leaders bring military officers into the government, they signal to the military that there is a peaceful path to sharing power and provide an alternative to coups. In contrast, removing military officers from government dramatically increases the risk of a coup attempt as the military retaliates against the leader’s power grab. I test this theory using cross-national data that captures changes in military representation in national cabinets and state councils from 1969 to 2008 and find mixed support. In line with the theory, there is strong evidence that large reductions in the military’s government positions lead to coup attempts, and more modest evidence that large increases reduce coup attempts. However, contrary to expectations, the results also suggest that small increases in military government positions increase the risk of a coup.
为什么会发生政变,国家领导人如何影响政变的可能性?现有的研究侧重于结构性因素以及作为政变风险驱动因素的“防政变”。我认为,文献中遗漏了一个重要的替代途径,即领导人影响军队罢免他们的可能性:增加或罢免政府军官。当领导人将军官纳入政府时,他们向军方发出信号,表明有一条和平的权力分享之路,并为政变提供了一种替代方案。相比之下,随着军方对领导人夺权的报复,将军官从政府中除名大大增加了政变企图的风险。我使用跨国家的数据来测试这一理论,这些数据记录了1969年至2008年国家内阁和州议会中军队代表性的变化,并发现支持率参差不齐。根据这一理论,有强有力的证据表明,军队政府职位的大幅减少会导致政变企图,而更温和的证据表明大幅增加会减少政变企图。然而,与预期相反,结果也表明,军政府职位的小幅增加会增加政变的风险。
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引用次数: 1
Voting experience in a new era: The impact of past eligibility on the breakdown of mainstream parties 新时代的投票经历:过去的资格对主流政党崩溃的影响
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680231157288
Fernando De la Cuesta
This paper studies the influence of the context in shaping the effects on later voting behavior of first experiences with voting. I leverage from changes in the political context in Spain produced by the Great Recession to answer whether individuals’ first voting experience affects the electoral support for mainstream parties differently depending on the different political context that first voters experienced before and after the Great Recession. I use a novel database of pre-electoral surveys between 2000 and 2015 and a difference-in-differences analysis. I exploit the exogenous variation produced by the legal voting-age threshold in Spain (18 years-old) among people of the same cohort. I find that, after the Great Recession, second-time eligibility voters have a higher probability to vote for mainstream forces than their counterfactual equals. The results show that, in a context of political change, first voting experience strengthens the vote for mainstream parties. The results show that previous voting experience creates favorable inertia for mainstream parties that slow down the change of a political system.
本文研究了语境对初次投票经历对后来投票行为的影响。我利用大衰退造成的西班牙政治环境的变化来回答个人的第一次投票经历是否会对主流政党的选举支持产生不同的影响,这取决于第一次选民在大衰退前后经历的不同政治环境。我使用了一个新的2000年至2015年选举前调查数据库,并进行了差异中差异分析。我利用了西班牙法定投票年龄门槛(18岁)在同一群体中产生的外生差异。我发现,在大衰退(Great Recession)之后,第二次有资格投票的选民投票给主流势力的可能性要高于他们的反事实对手。结果表明,在政治变革的背景下,首次投票经验加强了对主流政党的投票。结果表明,以往的投票经验为主流政党创造了有利的惯性,从而减缓了政治制度的变革。
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引用次数: 0
Women’s descriptive representation and support for the inclusion of gender-related provisions in trade agreements 妇女的描述性代表和支持在贸易协定中列入与性别有关的规定
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680231157611
Seung-Kap Park, M. Shin
Recent regional trade agreements (RTAs) tend to link gender and trade issues through gender-related provisions. This pattern is mostly observed in RTAs formed between global North and South countries. Despite a growing interest in gender-related provisions among countries, there have not been systematic studies on the formation of RTAs with these instruments. Our study underscores women’s descriptive representation. Female representatives care more about advancing women’s interests and improving their status than their male counterparts. Thus, we posit that when women’s political representation in a country’s legislature is high, it is more likely to support gender-related provisions. Focusing on RTAs between the European Union and democratic developing countries from 1997 and 2016, we find some support that women’s presence in the legislature affects trade policy outcomes. Countries with higher female representation in the legislature tend to join RTAs with gender-related provisions, but these countries do not increase their commitment to gender equality by adding multiple provisions on gender.
最近的区域贸易协定往往通过与性别有关的条款将性别和贸易问题联系起来。这种模式主要出现在全球南北国家之间形成的区域贸易协定中。尽管各国对与性别有关的条款越来越感兴趣,但尚未对利用这些文书形成区域贸易协定进行系统研究。我们的研究强调了女性的描述性表现。女性代表比男性代表更关心促进妇女的利益和提高她们的地位。因此,我们认为,当妇女在一个国家立法机构中的政治代表性较高时,它更有可能支持与性别有关的条款。关注1997年至2016年欧盟与民主发展中国家之间的区域贸易协定,我们发现一些证据表明,妇女在立法机构的存在会影响贸易政策的结果。立法机构中女性代表性较高的国家倾向于加入具有性别相关条款的区域贸易协定,但这些国家并没有通过增加多个性别条款来增加对性别平等的承诺。
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引用次数: 1
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Research and Politics
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