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International Order and the Access Problem of the Defeated Hegemon: the Case of Russia in the Post-Cold War Era 国际秩序与战败霸主的准入问题:后冷战时期俄罗斯的案例
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2021.1.2
Gülteki̇n Sümer
It has been evident that Russia as the heir of Soviet foreign policy, could neither achieve to integrate herself into the international order, nor could the international order achieve to find a solution to Russian foreign policy identity quest. As long as Russia cannot find a stable and permanent status for herself in the world politics, her foreign policy will signify a permanent instability on the behalf of the international order. The current hegemonic international order is far from residing technical capabilities in terms of satisfying Russia’s foreign policy expectations, because it is unprecedentedly rigid in terms of allowing or refusing the incorporation of hegemonic power like Russia. While it cannot return to multipolarity, it could not set a community based international order either. Since the current international order was founded upon liberal anti-Soviet values, it entered into a lightness of exposing Russia to make clear-cut choices in her foreign policy. As much as the current international order was founded upon liberal anti-Soviet values, its demands from the new members would much higher that especially Russia would not easily adapt herself to.
显然,俄罗斯作为苏联外交政策的继承者,既无法实现自身融入国际秩序,也无法实现国际秩序对俄罗斯外交政策认同的寻求。只要俄罗斯不能在世界政治中为自己找到一个稳定和永久的地位,它的外交政策就意味着国际秩序的永久不稳定。当前的霸权国际秩序在技术上远远不能满足俄罗斯的外交政策期望,因为它在允许或拒绝像俄罗斯这样的霸权国家的加入方面是前所未有的僵化。虽然不能回到多极化,但也不能建立以共同体为基础的国际秩序。由于当前的国际秩序是建立在自由主义反苏价值观的基础上的,它进入了一种让俄罗斯在外交政策上做出明确选择的宽松状态。尽管当前的国际秩序是建立在自由主义反苏价值观的基础上,但新成员国提出的要求要高得多,尤其是俄罗斯很难适应。
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引用次数: 1
Seeking a Place for Islam in Post-Soviet Russia 为伊斯兰教在后苏联时代的俄罗斯寻找一席之地
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2021.1.11
Zuzana Rozkošová, Ľubomír Čech
One of the main characteristics of the post-Soviet transformation was the religious resurgence. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the post-Soviet Islamic revival in the 1990s. The awakening of Islam and seeking the place for Muslims in the society significantly influenced the formation of today’s Russian Federation. The authors examine the factors that influenced the role of Islam in newly created post-Soviet Russia and the federal government’s response to its dynamics. The paper is divided into two parts. The first part deals with the Islamic revival after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The second chapter is focused on the Kremlin’s reaction to new radical movements that emerged during the Islamic awakening and the separatist sentiments in Russia’s Muslim regions. Using the qualitative research method, the authors drew a conclusion that Islamic radicalisation in post-Soviet Russia was caused by several external and internal factors. The political developments in the Russian Federation between the second half of the 1990s and the early 21st century were characterised by restrictions on religious freedom and consolidation of federalism.
后苏联转型的主要特征之一是宗教复兴。本文旨在分析20世纪90年代后苏联时代的伊斯兰复兴。伊斯兰教的觉醒和穆斯林在社会中的地位对今天俄罗斯联邦的形成产生了重大影响。作者研究了影响伊斯兰教在新成立的后苏联俄罗斯中的作用的因素,以及联邦政府对其动态的反应。本文分为两个部分。第一部分论述苏联解体后的伊斯兰复兴。第二章重点关注克里姆林宫对伊斯兰觉醒期间出现的新激进运动和俄罗斯穆斯林地区的分离主义情绪的反应。采用定性研究方法,作者得出结论,后苏联时期俄罗斯的伊斯兰激进主义是由多种外部和内部因素造成的。20世纪90年代下半叶至21世纪初,俄罗斯联邦的政治发展以限制宗教自由和巩固联邦制为特点。
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引用次数: 0
Borders, De-Borderization and Migration Narratives in Hungary 匈牙利的边界、去边界化和移民叙事
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2021.1.8
Teodor Gyelník
The events and processes of the recent decades drive us to awake from the hypnotic illusion of the ‘end of history’. The ‘return of history’ is not only a necessary step that has to be taken, but it is ontologically inevitable. Blinded by the mobile army of metaphors, metonyms and anthropomorphisms, we need to see that the processes of the 21st century are no different from the old politics which were recorded in history, thus it is unavoidable to think within the ‘dialectics of Old and New’. Globalization, relativization of values, removal of borders and the re-narration of borders in previously unseen areas lead us to an existential zero point. Borders play significant self-determining and self-definition role in our life and society, thus their relocation, reorientation and blurring of their meaning is a question that has to be analysed and closely watched. Together with the narration of borders, the narration of security plays major role. Migration and the question of open, permeable borders have become one of the most important security narrations of our everyday life.
近几十年的事件和进程促使我们从“历史终结”的催眠幻觉中清醒过来。“历史的回归”不仅是必须采取的必要步骤,而且在本体论上是不可避免的。在隐喻、转喻和拟人的流动大军的蒙蔽下,我们需要看到21世纪的进程与历史上记录的旧政治没有什么不同,因此在“新旧辩证法”中思考是不可避免的。全球化、价值观的相对化、边界的消除以及在以前看不见的领域重新叙述边界,把我们引向了一个存在的零点。边界在我们的生活和社会中起着重要的自我决定和自我定义的作用,因此,边界的重新定位、重新定位和其意义的模糊是一个必须分析和密切关注的问题。与边界叙事一起,安全叙事起着重要作用。移民和开放、可渗透的边界问题已经成为我们日常生活中最重要的安全问题之一。
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引用次数: 0
The Formation of the International Imperatives of the National (Food) Security Coefficient in Ukraine under Globalization 全球化背景下乌克兰国家(粮食)安全系数国际规律的形成
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2020.1.28
S. Khalatur, K. Zhylenko, I. Vinichenko, O. Trokhymets, L. Kriuchko
The purpose of the study is to review the academic literature on food security issues in order to examine the indicators of rational and minimal nutrition, facilitating the analysis of the existing system of indicators by which to assess the state of the food security system in a country. The aim of the article is to investigate and demonstrate the imperatives behind the formation of Ukraine’s national (food) security in the context of globalization. National food security in the broad sense should be considered as the state of the economy, and more narrowly – as the guaranteed ability of a state to meet the needs of the population by providing each citizen with the required volume, range and quality of food at a level that ensures the health and intellectual development of the individual, based on the principles of self-sufficiency of basic products and their economic and physical accessibility, regardless of the influence of external and internal factors. The Global Food Security Index Ranks of the European Union and Ukraine are analyzed. Consumer expenditure on food consumed at home in Ukraine is analyzed in the article. Average food security indicators of the EU and Ukraine are analyzed for 2001–2018, in particular for food exports, food imports, food production index, food, beverages and tobacco. The dynamics and forecasts of wheat and maize harvest and crop production in Ukraine and the EU are compared. The analysis of the Suite of Food Security Indicators of the EU and Ukraine is presented alongside a comprehensive analysis of the multifactor regression model of Food Production Index from foreign direct investment, net inflows, GDP growth, GNI per capita growth, short-term debt, tax revenue, total natural resources rents, and trade. The analysis has shown that for the analysis of the food production index it is effective to build a regression model, because it allows not only to estimate the degree of influence of the factor on the result, but also to most effectively predict the size of the food production index for the future.
本研究的目的是审查有关粮食安全问题的学术文献,以审查合理和最低营养的指标,促进对现有指标体系的分析,以评估一个国家粮食安全体系的状况。本文的目的是调查和展示在全球化背景下乌克兰国家(粮食)安全形成背后的必要性。广义上的国家粮食安全应被视为经济状况,更狭义地说,应被视为一个国家根据基本产品自给自足以及经济上和物质上可获得的原则,向每个公民提供所需数量、范围和质量的粮食,确保个人健康和智力发展,从而满足人口需要的有保障的能力。不考虑外部和内部因素的影响。对欧盟和乌克兰的全球粮食安全指数排名进行了分析。本文分析了乌克兰消费者在家中消费的食品支出。本文分析了2001-2018年欧盟和乌克兰的平均粮食安全指标,特别是食品出口、食品进口、食品生产指数、食品、饮料和烟草。对乌克兰和欧盟小麦和玉米收成和作物生产的动态和预测进行了比较。本文对欧盟和乌克兰的粮食安全指标套件进行了分析,同时对粮食生产指数的多因素回归模型进行了综合分析,包括外国直接投资、净流入、GDP增长、人均国民总收入增长、短期债务、税收、自然资源租金总额和贸易。分析表明,对于粮食生产指数的分析,建立回归模型是有效的,因为它不仅可以估计因素对结果的影响程度,而且可以最有效地预测未来粮食生产指数的大小。
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引用次数: 1
Iran, Terrorism, and ISIS. Radosław Fiedler’s Interview with Bruce Hoffman 伊朗、恐怖主义和ISIS。Radosław费德勒对布鲁斯·霍夫曼的采访
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2020.1.29
Radosław Fiedler
Intervievs
界面
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引用次数: 0
The ASEAN’s Attitude to the South China Sea Dispute after the Verdict of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague 海牙常设仲裁法院裁决后东盟对南海争端的态度
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2020.1.13
Małgorzata Pietrasiak
The South China Sea is the most inflammable area in the region of Southeast Asia due to its natural resources, commercial and political importance. The ASEAN countries directly involved in the dispute have conflicting interests, mainly related to their relationship with China, a pretender for the whole area. Therefore, attemps to settle the dispute are not successful. On July 12, 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague issued a verdict taking into account the Law of the Sea, in which it accepted the Philippines’s arguments and rejected China’s claims based on historical arguments against the islands in the South China Sea. China did not take part in the trial and found its sentences non-binding but at the same time it has entered into a dialogue with ASEAN on the code of conduct (COC) in the South China Sea. The purpose of the article is to discuss how the parties are involved in the conflict, progress towards signing the Code of Conduct for the Parties in the South China Sea and the attitude of ASEAN countries to this conflict. Due to the degree of dependence of economies on Chinese influence, and relations with other powers, mainly the US, the behavior of individual countries is different. Hence the problem with the organization’s cohesion and attempts to break the deadlock, which have been unsuccessful so far. The basic research hypothesis that will be verified is to maintain the status quo in the South China Sea in the long run. At the same time, it was noted that Vietnam is prepared for long-term actions, based on diplomatic tools combined with a tough attitude, to solve problems related to the sovereignty of disputed areas. ASEAN will have to face up with the issues more consistently, by making greater use of quiet diplomacy. The theoretical basis of the article is Hurrell’s theory of neorealism, which analyzes, among other things, the principles and objectives of regional organizations in the international environment. Hurrell assumes that all regional organizations cannot be understood differently from their regional balance of power and regional dominant forces policy and ASEAN’s attitude proves this point of view.
由于其自然资源、商业和政治重要性,南中国海是东南亚地区最易燃的地区。直接卷入争端的东盟国家存在利益冲突,主要与它们与整个地区的伪装者中国的关系有关。因此,解决争端的努力并不成功。2016年7月12日,海牙常设仲裁法院发布了一项考虑到海洋法的裁决,接受了菲律宾的论点,并根据针对南中国海岛屿的历史论点驳回了中国的主张。中国没有参加审判,并认为其判决不具约束力,但与此同时,中国已与东盟就南海行为准则进行对话。文章的目的是讨论各方如何卷入冲突、签署《南海各方行为准则》的进展以及东盟国家对这场冲突的态度。由于经济对中国影响力的依赖程度,以及与其他大国(主要是美国)的关系,各个国家的行为有所不同。因此,该组织的凝聚力和打破僵局的努力出现了问题,但迄今为止都没有成功。将要验证的基本研究假设是长期维持南海现状。与此同时,有人指出,越南准备采取长期行动,以外交工具和强硬态度相结合,解决与争议地区主权有关的问题。东盟必须更加一致地面对这些问题,更多地利用安静的外交手段。本文的理论基础是赫尔雷尔的新现实主义理论,该理论分析了区域组织在国际环境中的原则和目标。Hurrell认为,所有地区组织都不能与其地区力量平衡和地区主导力量政策有不同的理解,东盟的态度证明了这一观点。
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引用次数: 0
Turkey-US Relations in the Context of the Syrian Conflict: from Cooperation to Confrontation 叙利亚冲突背景下的土美关系:从合作到对抗
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2020.1.5
Nezir Akyesilmen, Vanessa Tinker, Mohammed Ishmeal
Turkey and the United States of America have been strategic partners for over seven decades. Nevertheless, their relationship has not always been a smooth one, and the two countries have encountered temporary bilateral crises from time to time. In spite of the challenges, over the years, the NATO allies – the United States and Turkey have continued to reaffirm their commitment to cooperate with each other as “strategic partners.” However, the ensuing Syrian crisis has brought the relationship between the allies to an all-time historic low. This study examines Turkey-US relations in the context of the ongoing Syrian conflict using a conflict analysis framework. With this framework, we analyze the historical background, identify the root causes of the crisis and conduct an actor analysis. Based on our findings, we provide policy recommendations to de-escalate and transform the current crisis in US-Turkey relations in order to both restore their mutual trust and find new ways to cooperate as strategic partners.
土耳其和美利坚合众国70多年来一直是战略伙伴。然而,他们的关系并不总是一帆风顺的,两国时不时会遇到暂时的双边危机。尽管面临这些挑战,多年来,北约盟国美国和土耳其继续重申他们作为“战略伙伴”相互合作的承诺。然而,随后的叙利亚危机使盟国之间的关系降至历史最低点。本研究使用冲突分析框架在持续的叙利亚冲突背景下考察土耳其与美国的关系。在这个框架下,我们分析了历史背景,找出了危机的根本原因,并进行了行动者分析。根据我们的研究结果,我们提出了政策建议,以缓和和改变当前美土关系中的危机,从而恢复双方的相互信任,并找到作为战略伙伴合作的新途径。
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引用次数: 0
Baltic-Black Sea Region as a Resilient Region: Political and Security Aspects 波罗的海-黑海地区作为一个有弹性的地区:政治和安全方面
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2020.1.10
M. Gladysh, O. Krayevska, Oksana Holovko-Havrysheva
The conceptual bases of resilience in modern political science are analyzed, including the key conceptual approaches that are used in academic studies for understanding the policy of resilience, characterizing the reaction of subjects to stress or threat of any kind and origin. The concept of resilience is applied to analyze the cooperation among the Baltic-Black Sea countries as a regional interaction model which should be formed in order to reduce or avoid security crises. The Baltic-Black Sea countries have developed and formed strong ties in different dimen­sions among one another, opening an opportunity for intellectual adventures in the area of the conceptualization of their interaction modes under the regional cooperation frameworks. Based upon the analyzed doctrinal views and available documentary backgrounds on resilience in the UN and the EU, the possible visions and scenarios for the creation of the Baltic-Black Sea region as a resilient one are given. The existing and potential obstacles to cooperation in the region are highlighted. The main threats and challenges for the Baltic-Black Sea region at present are investigated.
分析了现代政治学中恢复力的概念基础,包括学术研究中用于理解恢复力政策的关键概念方法,表征了受试者对任何类型和来源的压力或威胁的反应。运用复原力的概念分析了波罗的海-黑海国家之间的合作,认为这是一种区域互动模式,应该形成这种模式,以减少或避免安全危机。波罗的海-黑海国家在不同层面上发展并形成了牢固的联系,为在区域合作框架下概念化其互动模式提供了知识冒险的机会。基于分析的联合国和欧盟关于复原力的理论观点和现有的文献背景,给出了创建波罗的海-黑海区域作为一个复原力区域的可能愿景和情景。强调了该区域合作的现有和潜在障碍。分析了波罗的海-黑海地区目前面临的主要威胁和挑战。
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引用次数: 2
Sanctions, Accommodation, and Defiance. A Long Track of US Sanctions Targeted at Iran. Radosław Fiedler’s Interview with Richard Nephe 制裁,迁就和反抗。美国对伊朗的长期制裁。Radosław费德勒对Richard Nephe的采访
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2020.1.30
Radosław Fiedler
Interviews
面试
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引用次数: 0
“Active Measures” of the USSR Against the USA: Old Soviet Games in the New Geopolitical Reality 苏联对抗美国的“积极措施”:新地缘政治现实中的旧苏联博弈
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2020.1.2
D. Dubov, Anastasiia Barovska, Iryna Koretska
The growth and dissemination of Russia’s propaganda have become a serious threat in recent years. But these efforts of Russia are not new, they have a basis in the past – known as “active measures.” Therefore, the problem of detecting and counteracting these “active measures,” first and foremost, is that there is no commonly accepted definition of the term. Therefore, the authors addressed the specific problem of the definition of “active measures.” The authors found that all “active measures” were subordinated to a single political strategic idea, and this idea was carried out by various methods. The authors are convinced that any classification of current “active measures” should be based on the methods detected. In order to identify these methods, the scheme of “active measures,” suggested by S. K. Whittle, is used. At the same time, his scheme has been supplemented, and the relevant cases for the application of different methods of “active measures” are given. An attempt is made to compare the methods of applying “active measures” with current aspects of the hybrid war of the Russian Federation, in particular in Ukraine.
近年来,俄罗斯宣传的增长和传播已成为一个严重的威胁。但俄罗斯的这些努力并不新鲜,它们有过去的基础——被称为“积极措施”。因此,检测和抵制这些“主动措施”的首要问题是,没有一个普遍接受的术语定义。因此,笔者对“积极措施”的具体定义问题进行了探讨。作者发现,一切“积极措施”都服从于一个单一的政治战略理念,而这一理念是通过各种方法来实现的。作者确信,对当前“积极措施”的任何分类都应以检测到的方法为基础。为了识别这些方法,采用了S. K. Whittle提出的“主动措施”方案。同时对他的方案进行了补充,并给出了不同“积极措施”方法应用的相关案例。有人试图将实施“积极措施”的方法与俄罗斯联邦特别是在乌克兰的混合战争的当前方面进行比较。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Przeglad Strategiczny
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