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SIPRI Yearbook 2018. Armaments, Disarmament and International Security and Report from the 3rd Meeting of the Consortium of Academic Departments of Strategic (and Security) Studies SIPRI年鉴2018。军备、裁军与国际安全以及战略(和安全)研究学术部门联合会第三次会议报告
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-12-31 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2019.1.26
Maciej Magiera
This annex describes the main international organizations, intergovernmental bodies, treaty-implementing bodies and transfer control regimes whose aims include the promotion of security, stability, peace or arms control and lists their members or participants as of 1 January 2018. The bodies are divided into three categories: those with a global focus or membership (section I), those with a regional focus or membership (section II) and those that aim to control strategic trade (section III). The member states of the United Nations and organs within the UN system are listed first, followed by all other bodies in alphabetical order. Not all members or participants of these bodies are UN member states. States that joined or first participated in the body during 2017 are shown in italics. The address of an Internet site with information about each organization is provided where available. On the arms control and disarmament agreements mentioned here, see annex A.
本附件介绍了旨在促进安全、稳定、和平或军备控制的主要国际组织、政府间机构、条约执行机构和转让管制制度,并列出了截至2018年1月1日的成员或参与者名单。这些机构分为三类:以全球为重点或有成员资格的机构(第一节)、以区域为重点或有成员资格的机构(第二节)和旨在控制战略贸易的机构(第三节)。首先列出联合国成员国和联合国系统内的机构,然后是按字母顺序排列的所有其他机构。并非所有这些机构的成员或参与者都是联合国成员国。2017年加入或首次参加该机构的国家以斜体显示。在可用的情况下,提供了包含每个组织信息的Internet站点的地址。关于这里提到的军备控制和裁军协定,见附件A。
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引用次数: 9
Non-Governmental Organizations as Actors of Ukrainian Politics of Memory 非政府组织作为乌克兰记忆政治的行动者
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-12-31 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2019.1.24
O. Kornievskyy, Olexii Rozumnyi
The article investigates the role of non-governmental organizations as subjects (actors) of Ukrainian politics of memory, as well as the mechanisms used by them to influence the formation of the historical memory of Ukrainian society. The authors resort to comparative qualitative research, using an empirical-interpretative version of the method of studying specific cases (case study). The objects of analysis are: the Center for the Study of the Liberation Movement, “Tkuma” Ukrainian Institute for Holocaust Studies, and the Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial Center. The results of the study indicate that NGOs are actively influencing the process of forming the historical memory of Ukrainian society. Methods of such influence can be both direct (through various educational activities) and indirect (through interaction with state institutions responsible for the implementation of national memory policy). The effectiveness of this influence is determined by such important factors as the availability of sponsors with significant financial means and/or lobbyists in government agencies and institutions that are part of the state memory policy infrastructure.
本文探讨了非政府组织作为乌克兰记忆政治主体(行动者)的作用,以及它们用来影响乌克兰社会历史记忆形成的机制。作者采用比较定性研究,使用实证解释版的方法研究具体案例(案例研究)。分析对象是:解放运动研究中心、“Tkuma”乌克兰大屠杀研究所和Babyn Yar大屠杀纪念中心。研究结果表明,非政府组织正在积极影响乌克兰社会历史记忆的形成过程。这种影响的方法既可以是直接的(通过各种教育活动),也可以是间接的(通过与负责实施国家记忆政策的国家机构的互动)。这种影响的有效性取决于一些重要因素,如拥有重要财政手段的赞助商和/或作为国家记忆政策基础设施一部分的政府机构和机构中的说客的可用性。
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引用次数: 0
China’s Strategic Economic Growth (1978-2018) 中国战略性经济增长(1978-2018)
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-12-31 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2019.1.17
V. Moiseev, V. Nitsevich, O. Sudorgin
Today, China is the leading economic power, its gross domestic product (GDP) increased from 1979 to 2018 in 50 times, to $13,2 trillion. This is 10 times the GDP of Russia and almost 30 times the GDP of Poland. China’s nominal GDP is the second in the world after the United States. The authors not only reveal the factors of the Chinese phenomenon, but also attempt to analyze the main components of China’s success in economic development. The purpose of this study is a comprehensive analysis of key features of China’s economic development strategy. Тhe authors examine the key features of China’s economic development strategy, the priority directions of its modernization: public administration reforms, state regulation of the economy, analyze the features of attracting national and foreign investments for a breakthrough in socio-economic development. Тhe authors used the analytical, comparative, institutional and sociological methods.
今天,中国是领先的经济大国,其国内生产总值(GDP)从1979年到2018年增长了50倍,达到13.2万亿美元。这是俄罗斯GDP的10倍,几乎是波兰GDP的30倍。中国的名义GDP仅次于美国,居世界第二位。作者不仅揭示了中国现象的因素,而且试图分析中国经济发展成功的主要组成部分。本研究的目的是全面分析中国经济发展战略的主要特征。Тhe作者考察了中国经济发展战略的主要特征,其现代化的优先方向:公共行政改革,国家调控经济,分析了吸引国内外投资以实现社会经济发展突破的特点。Тhe作者使用了分析、比较、制度和社会学的方法。
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引用次数: 0
The Conceptual Approach to the Development of Methodologies for the Assessment of Security Environment 安全环境评估方法发展的概念途径
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-12-31 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2019.1.6
А.M. Syrotenko
The main conceptual approaches to the development of a security environment evaluation methodology that would provide more skilled processing of information circulating in a security environment but not fixed during monitoring are considered. The method contains 14 main blocks, which carry analytical, logical, expert comparative and other procedures with the information received from the security environment in relation to destructive processes, phenomena, dangers, threats, as well as conditions in which the implementation of national interests takes place. The novelty of the procedures introduced is a comparison of facts, events detected during monitoring of global and local processes, sorting of events, facts, dangers, threats, etc., on the basis of which identification of geopolitical and other interests of other states is carried out, detection of misinformation, information coverage of various kinds of manipulations and psychological effects. The procedure of projecting events, facts, dangers, threats on the trajectory of global and local processes allows predicting the dynamics of global and local processes, providing information-time and security support for global and local processes, and assessing the risks of detected destructive phenomena and processes allows timely adjusting the parameters of the information – time and security support of global, local and other processes and make managerial decisions in the system of providing the national and military security more reasonably.
讨论了发展安全环境评价方法的主要概念方法,该方法将对在安全环境中流通但在监测期间不固定的信息提供更熟练的处理。该方法包含14个主要模块,其中进行分析、逻辑、专家比较和其他程序,根据从安全环境收到的有关破坏性过程、现象、危险、威胁以及实现国家利益的条件的信息。所引入的程序的新颖之处在于对全球和局部进程监测中发现的事实和事件进行比较,对事件、事实、危险、威胁等进行分类,在此基础上识别其他国家的地缘政治和其他利益,发现错误信息,各种操纵和心理影响的信息覆盖。在全球和地方进程的轨迹上预测事件、事实、危险和威胁的程序允许预测全球和地方进程的动态,为全球和地方进程提供信息时间和安全支持,并评估发现的破坏性现象和过程的风险,允许及时调整全球的信息时间和安全支持的参数。在保障国家和军事安全的系统中,更加合理地进行地方等流程和管理决策。
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引用次数: 0
The ‘Museums of the Frontline’ in Stepanakert, or on the Armenian Remembrance of the Armed Conflict with Azerbaijan 斯捷潘纳克特的“前线博物馆”,或亚美尼亚纪念与阿塞拜疆的武装冲突
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-12-31 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2019.1.25
M. Lorenc
Nagorno-Karabakh is currently considered the most militarized area in the South Caucasus region. The key political decision-makers of Armenia come from Stepanakert. The issue of the future of this territory is an important element of any electoral campaign in Armenia. Any plans to make concessions to the Azerbaijani side are opposed by Armenian nationalist and veteran circles. The memory of the armed conflict with Azerbaijan remains vivid and is reflected in numerous commemorative initiatives in the NKR, as exemplified by the Memorial Museum of the Perished Soldiers and the Memorial Museum – The Union of Relatives of Missing Warriors of the NKR in Stepanakert. These institutions are a synthesis of museum and funeral practices. To quote Aleksander Wallis, replacing ‘monuments’ with ‘museums,’ it may be concluded that they “were created to historicize current events” which “evoke the greatest emotions, tensions and conflicts” and stem from “profound moral needs.” However, unlike monuments whose “artistic shape and symbolic meaning [...] permit different interpre- tations in formal and artistic categories as well as in the categories of meaning, ideology and politics” (Wallis, 1968), the two museums do not give such freedom. Besides commemoration, they also serve the purpose of constructing and consolidating hostility towards Azerbaijan – the raison d’être of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The conflict is the foundation of the idea of Artsakh and the main political implication of the spatial values represented by the MMPS and MMMW. The unique character of these museums, however, is not related to the politicization of re-membrance, which is a common feature of such establishments, but rather to the short temporal distance between the armed conflict and the emergence of the exhibitions. Consequently, the memory of the museums’ creators has not been ‘borrowed’ and the message of the museums reflects the current attitude to Azerbaijan.
纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫目前被认为是南高加索地区军事化程度最高的地区。亚美尼亚的主要政治决策者来自斯捷潘纳克特。这一领土的未来问题是亚美尼亚任何竞选活动的一个重要因素。任何向阿塞拜疆方面作出让步的计划都遭到亚美尼亚民族主义者和退伍军人圈子的反对。与阿塞拜疆的武装冲突的记忆仍然生动,反映在北kr的许多纪念活动中,例如在斯捷潘纳克特的阵亡士兵纪念博物馆和北kr失踪战士亲属联盟纪念博物馆。这些机构是博物馆和葬礼实践的综合体。引用亚历山大·沃利斯(Aleksander Wallis)的话,用“博物馆”代替“纪念碑”,可以得出这样的结论:它们“被创造出来是为了将当前事件历史化”,这些事件“唤起了最大的情感、紧张和冲突”,源于“深刻的道德需求”。然而,不像纪念碑的“艺术形状和象征意义……”]允许在形式和艺术类别以及意义,意识形态和政治类别中进行不同的解释”(沃利斯,1968),这两个博物馆没有给予这样的自由。除了纪念活动外,它们还有助于建立和巩固对阿塞拜疆的敌意- -这是纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫冲突的原因。这种冲突是Artsakh理念的基础,也是MMPS和MMMW所代表的空间价值的主要政治含义。然而,这些博物馆的独特之处与纪念的政治化(这是此类机构的共同特征)无关,而是与武装冲突和展览出现之间的短暂时间距离有关。因此,博物馆创造者的记忆没有被“借用”,博物馆的信息反映了目前对阿塞拜疆的态度。
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引用次数: 0
Digital Intervention in National Political Systems in the Conditions of Contemporary Information Society 当代信息社会条件下国家政治系统的数字干预
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-12-31 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2019.1.23
S. Volodenkov
The article analyzes the phenomenon of digital interference with national political systems in the conditions of the modern information society and the evolution of the Internet as a space of political communications. It is shown that digital intervention is relevant but at the same time a complex multidimensional phenomenon of contemporary politics. In many respects, the potential of the digital interference phenomenon is closely related to the substantive and functional features of the functioning and transformation of the contemporary Internet, which has been actively used when changing political regimes in many countries. The initiatives of countries to form the sovereign national segments of the Internet space are, on the one hand, an attempt to protect their political systems from external influence and invasion, to ensure their own political stability, and on the other hand, they pose risks to the democratic potential of the Internet. The article substantiates the thesis that the phenomenon of interference with elections in actual practice often becomes not so much an objective process as an instrument of information warfare, mass political propaganda and discredit of political opponents, a manipulative tool that can be actively used not only by authoritarian regimes with a low level of democratic development. It is noted that differences in understanding and defining the essence of the Internet by various countries give rise to a significant potential for political conflicts on a global scale. This leads the author to conclude that it is necessary to form institutions that are able to prevent and regu- late information conflicts in the Internet space, as well as reduce global political risks (including risks associated with potential interference in the electoral process of sovereign states), forming a collective responsibility in the functioning of the global Internet.
本文分析了在现代信息社会条件下,数字干扰国家政治制度的现象,以及互联网作为政治传播空间的演变。研究表明,数字干预是相关的,但同时也是当代政治的一个复杂的多维现象。在许多方面,数字干扰现象的潜力与当代互联网运作和转型的实质性和功能性特征密切相关,许多国家在改变政治制度时都积极利用了这一特征。各国建立互联网空间主权国家部分的举措,一方面是为了保护其政治制度不受外部影响和入侵,确保其自身的政治稳定,另一方面,也对互联网的民主潜力构成风险。这篇文章证实了这一论点,即在实际实践中,干预选举的现象往往与其说是一个客观过程,不如说是一种信息战、大规模政治宣传和抹黑政治对手的工具,一种操纵工具,不仅民主发展水平低的威权政权可以积极使用。值得注意的是,各国对互联网本质的理解和定义存在差异,这极有可能在全球范围内引发政治冲突。这使作者得出结论,有必要建立能够预防和规范互联网领域信息冲突的机构,并降低全球政治风险(包括与主权国家选举进程的潜在干预相关的风险),从而在全球互联网的运作中形成集体责任。
{"title":"Digital Intervention in National Political Systems in the Conditions of Contemporary Information Society","authors":"S. Volodenkov","doi":"10.14746/ps.2019.1.23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14746/ps.2019.1.23","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes the phenomenon of digital interference with national political systems in the conditions of the modern information society and the evolution of the Internet as a space of political communications. It is shown that digital intervention is relevant but at the same time a complex multidimensional phenomenon of contemporary politics. In many respects, the potential of the digital interference phenomenon is closely related to the substantive and functional features of the functioning and transformation of the contemporary Internet, which has been actively used when changing political regimes in many countries. The initiatives of countries to form the sovereign national segments of the Internet space are, on the one hand, an attempt to protect their political systems from external influence and invasion, to ensure their own political stability, and on the other hand, they pose risks to the democratic potential of the Internet. The article substantiates the thesis that the phenomenon of interference with elections in actual practice often becomes not so much an objective process as an instrument of information warfare, mass political propaganda and discredit of political opponents, a manipulative tool that can be actively used not only by authoritarian regimes with a low level of democratic development. It is noted that differences in understanding and defining the essence of the Internet by various countries give rise to a significant potential for political conflicts on a global scale. This leads the author to conclude that it is necessary to form institutions that are able to prevent and regu- late information conflicts in the Internet space, as well as reduce global political risks (including risks associated with potential interference in the electoral process of sovereign states), forming a collective responsibility in the functioning of the global Internet.","PeriodicalId":37800,"journal":{"name":"Przeglad Strategiczny","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49169741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Social Determinants of Crime and Hatred Incidents at Mass Sports Events in Poland 波兰大规模体育赛事中犯罪和仇恨事件的社会决定因素
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-12-31 DOI: 10.14746/ps.2019.1.14
Waldemar Jarczewski, Piotr Bogdalski
Crime and hatred have been a permanent part of mass events organized in Poland. The situation is the most difficult in the case of football matches, especially at the national level. Despite legal changes and many measures adopted by sports clubs, the police and other institutions, not only has the situation not changed but there are symptoms of its deterioration. It is extremely worrying that these informal groups form structures that operate following the principles characteristic of organized crime. The subject of study in this article are the phenomena of crime and hatred occurring at mass events organized in Poland; its purpose is to identify the causes and present conclusions regarding necessary actions, based on an analysis of statistics and reports. Methods characteristic of theoretical studies have been employed developing this study, as well as the results of surveys conducted in 2014. The basic research problems involve finding answers to the following questions: –  Did the determination of police in ensuring the safety of the EURO 2012 final tournament calm the mood and improve security of mass events? –  What is the current scale of crime, hooligan acts and collective violations of security and public order in relation to mass events organized in Poland today? –  Are the solutions in this area systemic, durable and consistent?The hypothesis was that, although public security authorities have been implementing a wide range of measures, crime and deep-rooted hatred towards enemy clubs and ideological opponents continue to be a hallmark of football fan circles and thus of some mass events organized in Poland. The inconsistent continuation of good practices adopted in the past, perceiving the problem only in terms of isolated incidents, and the lack of statistics that would help to prepare precise scientific analyses, all require moderation in predicting positive changes in this narrow area of public security.
犯罪和仇恨一直是在波兰组织的大规模活动的一部分。这种情况在足球比赛中是最困难的,尤其是在国家层面。尽管法律发生了变化,体育俱乐部、警察和其他机构采取了许多措施,但情况不仅没有改变,而且出现了恶化的症状。令人极为担忧的是,这些非正式团体形成的结构遵循有组织犯罪特有的原则。本文研究的主题是在波兰组织的大规模活动中发生的犯罪和仇恨现象;其目的是根据对统计数据和报告的分析,找出原因,并就必要的行动提出结论。本研究采用了理论研究的方法,以及2014年的调查结果。基础研究问题涉及以下问题的答案:警方在确保2012年欧洲杯决赛安全方面的决心是否平息了人们的情绪,提高了群众活动的安全性与今天在波兰组织的大规模活动有关的犯罪、流氓行为和集体违反安全和公共秩序的行为目前的规模是多少这一领域的解决方案是否系统、持久和一致?假设是,尽管公安当局一直在实施一系列措施,但犯罪和对敌方俱乐部和意识形态对手的根深蒂固的仇恨仍然是足球迷圈子的标志,因此也是波兰组织的一些大规模活动的标志。过去采取的良好做法前后不一,只从孤立事件的角度看待问题,缺乏有助于准备精确科学分析的统计数据,所有这些都需要适度预测这一狭窄的公共安全领域的积极变化。
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引用次数: 0
National Media as a Projection of a Devastating Effect of External Influences 民族传媒作为外部影响毁灭性影响的投射
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-11-30 DOI: 10.14746/PS.2018.1.13
Serhiy Danylenko, Yuliia Nesteriak, Maryna Grynchuk
This article is devoted to the research of media space of several countries in the Western Balkans and the Baltics, where we can observe the emergence and effective use of dubious media, in order to promote aggressive narratives, identified as a destructive influence of the Russian Federation. It is considered as the threat to the national security of these states. The information tools of a destabilizing nature include diplomatic, intelligence, and energy tools. The media component of information influence has become the central object of research. It is stated that the destructive use of dubious national media, as well as their replenishment, takes place systematically and efficiently in those areas, where Russia’s state interests are focused on the restoration of its domination. On this basis we can conclude that dubious media is used within Russia’s hybrid aggression in relation to Ukraine, where it is seen as a mean of animating the externally initiated destabilizing political influences. However, Russia will be forced to spend more and more resources (financial, organizational and informational) on such operations, and their effectiveness will fall as local governments, society and citizens will learn how to recognize the threats, retransmitted by dubious media, public associations, populist politicians or radicals.
本文致力于研究西巴尔干半岛和波罗的海几个国家的媒体空间,在那里我们可以观察到可疑媒体的出现和有效使用,以促进被认为是俄罗斯联邦破坏性影响的侵略性叙事。它被认为是对这些国家安全的威胁。破坏稳定性质的信息工具包括外交、情报和能源工具。信息影响力的媒介成分已成为研究的中心对象。据称,对可疑国家媒体的破坏性使用及其补充是在这些地区系统而有效地进行的,在这些地区,俄罗斯的国家利益集中在恢复其统治上。在此基础上,我们可以得出结论,在俄罗斯对乌克兰的混合侵略中使用了可疑的媒体,这被视为激活外部发起的破坏稳定的政治影响的一种手段。然而,俄罗斯将被迫在此类行动上花费越来越多的资源(财政、组织和信息),随着地方政府、社会和公民学会如何识别可疑媒体、公共协会、民粹主义政客或激进分子传播的威胁,这些行动的有效性将下降。
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引用次数: 1
SIPRI Yearbook 2017 SIPRI年鉴2017
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-11-30 DOI: 10.14746/PS.2018.1.29
Maciej Magiera
{"title":"SIPRI Yearbook 2017","authors":"Maciej Magiera","doi":"10.14746/PS.2018.1.29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14746/PS.2018.1.29","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37800,"journal":{"name":"Przeglad Strategiczny","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66610282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Polish Strategic Analyses – Review of 2017 Publications 波兰战略分析- 2017年出版物回顾
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-11-30 DOI: 10.14746/PS.2018.1.31
R. Wiśniewski
The text is a review of selected articles from leading Polish academic journals dealing with the topic of international security. It aims to present the most important topics of current debate taking place in Polish strategic studies.
本文是对波兰主要学术期刊上有关国际安全主题的文章的综述。它旨在介绍当前波兰战略研究中发生的最重要的辩论主题。
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引用次数: 0
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Przeglad Strategiczny
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