E nergy as an input of production is one of the main production factors in Iranian economic growth. Unfortunately, this growth leads to the high energy intensity in economic sectors in which its management is essential for policymakers and planners in Iran. One of the main issues in energy management is the impact of technological progress on saving energy. Respectively, this study is to analyze the relation of energy intensity and technological progress by Cob-Douglas production function between 1979 and 2015 for the Iranian agriculture, industry, and service sector with using panel data analysis and growth accounting model. The results indicate that technological progress will reduce the growth rate of energy intensity in the industry sector by 6.1%, in the agriculture sector by 8.9%, and in the service sector by 7.2%. Also, unlike the agriculture and service sector, the impact of technological progress on energy saving in the industry sector explains only 64% of total variations. The rest of changing in the energy intensity of the industrial sector is about 36% due to a decline in labor employment during the study period.
{"title":"Energy-saving Effect of Technological Progress in Iranian Economic Sectors: A Growth Accounting Application","authors":"A. Faridzad, A. Salem, Saba Rahimi","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.78828","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.78828","url":null,"abstract":"E \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000nergy as an input of production is one of the main production factors in Iranian economic growth. Unfortunately, this growth leads to the high energy intensity in economic sectors in which its management is essential for policymakers and planners in Iran. One of the main issues in energy management is the impact of technological progress on saving energy. Respectively, this study is to analyze the relation of energy intensity and technological progress by Cob-Douglas production function between 1979 and 2015 for the Iranian agriculture, industry, and service sector with using panel data analysis and growth accounting model. The results indicate that technological progress will reduce the growth rate of energy intensity in the industry sector by 6.1%, in the agriculture sector by 8.9%, and in the service sector by 7.2%. Also, unlike the agriculture and service sector, the impact of technological progress on energy saving in the industry sector explains only 64% of total variations. The rest of changing in the energy intensity of the industrial sector is about 36% due to a decline in labor employment during the study period.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47158628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper is to study the effect of key macroeconomic shock variables including exchange rate, broad money, stock price index, and supply shock effect on GDP growth rate in Iran by using a novel econometric method namely sign-restricted vector autoregressive (SRVAR). We use 5 variables in the model including GDP growth rate, broad money, exchange rate, stock price index, and inflation rate as well as quarterly data from 1370Q2 to 1395Q4 (1991Q3–2017Q1). We identify shocks by using Arias et al. (2014) algorithm. The empirical findings from impulse response functions indicate that negative supply shock declines the growth rate for about 5 periods. Positive exchange rate shock reduces the growth rate for about 4 periods and thereafter raises the growth rate. The monetary shock declines the growth rate after a short period. A positive stock market shock has a positive effect on the growth rate for about 3 periods, and thereafter decreases it. The forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) indicates that the negative supply shock, monetary shock, and exchange rate shocks are the most important explainers of the GDP growth rate shock.
{"title":"The Effect of Key Macroeconomic Shock Variables on GDP in Iran: A Sign-Restricted Bayesian VAR Approach","authors":"Eisa Maboudian, M. Ehsani","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.78839","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.78839","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is to study the effect of key macroeconomic shock variables including exchange rate, broad money, stock price index, and supply shock effect on GDP growth rate in Iran by using a novel econometric method namely sign-restricted vector autoregressive (SRVAR). We use 5 variables in the model including GDP growth rate, broad money, exchange rate, stock price index, and inflation rate as well as quarterly data from 1370Q2 to 1395Q4 (1991Q3–2017Q1). We identify shocks by using Arias et al. (2014) algorithm. The empirical findings from impulse response functions indicate that negative supply shock declines the growth rate for about 5 periods. Positive exchange rate shock reduces the growth rate for about 4 periods and thereafter raises the growth rate. The monetary shock declines the growth rate after a short period. A positive stock market shock has a positive effect on the growth rate for about 3 periods, and thereafter decreases it. The forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) indicates that the negative supply shock, monetary shock, and exchange rate shocks are the most important explainers of the GDP growth rate shock.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46470528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Masoud Kiumarthi, M. Salimifar, H. Abrishami, M. Shadmehri
T he purpose of this paper is to estimate the output gap and NAIRU for Iran's economy, both of which are among the most important variables in determining the economic status. Since these variables are unobservable, to estimate them, one needs modern econometric techniques rather than conventional tools. For this reason, this paper uses the Kalman filter tool in the form of a state-space model. Since there are several different specifications for a state-space structure, seven different models are tested by using seasonal data from 1989 to 2014. Results show that only two specifications have suitable estimation results. The first one is a structural model consisting of output and unemployment rate decomposition, plus the relationship between the inflation rate and the output gap in the form of the Phillips curve, and the second is a system that only includes unemployment rate decomposition. The early model can show the periods of inflationary recession between 1992 and 1995, and a severe economic recession during the period of 2010–2013 due to economic sanctions imposed on Iran. The latter model can depict NAIRU gap fluctuations following the inflation fluctuations. In addition to the compatibility of these results with what is observed in reality, the parameters are also statistically significant.
{"title":"Estimating Production Gap and NAIRU in Iran's Economy by Using State-Space Model","authors":"Masoud Kiumarthi, M. Salimifar, H. Abrishami, M. Shadmehri","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.78831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.78831","url":null,"abstract":"T \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000he purpose of this paper is to estimate the output gap and NAIRU for Iran's economy, both of which are among the most important variables in determining the economic status. Since these variables are unobservable, to estimate them, one needs modern econometric techniques rather than conventional tools. For this reason, this paper uses the Kalman filter tool in the form of a state-space model. Since there are several different specifications for a state-space structure, seven different models are tested by using seasonal data from 1989 to 2014. Results show that only two specifications have suitable estimation results. The first one is a structural model consisting of output and unemployment rate decomposition, plus the relationship between the inflation rate and the output gap in the form of the Phillips curve, and the second is a system that only includes unemployment rate decomposition. The early model can show the periods of inflationary recession between 1992 and 1995, and a severe economic recession during the period of 2010–2013 due to economic sanctions imposed on Iran. The latter model can depict NAIRU gap fluctuations following the inflation fluctuations. In addition to the compatibility of these results with what is observed in reality, the parameters are also statistically significant.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47857090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nassim Nasseri Oskouie, Hossien Abbasinejad, M. Mehrara
T his paper aims to estimate Iran’s time-varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) over the period 1986–2018. The NAIRU is estimated step by step starting with the constant NAIRU and then the time-varying NAIRU. The time-varying NAIRU is estimated by the Kalman filter and is compared to HP filter estimates. This model relies on the standard “triangle model” approach that includes various measures of supply and demand shocks in the specification of the Phillips curve. Results show that the NAIRU has been raised during the period, and according to the econometric results, there is a structural unemployment gap in the long-run, and the actual unemployment rate is approaching full employment[Z1] . In other words, there is not any significant gap between the actual unemployment rate and the estimated one (NAIRU). It shows that the high rate of unemployment is related to the structural elements and cannot be reduced by exerting monetary policies in long run. However, what these policies do in short term is reduce the unemployment rate temporarily and in long run is increasing inflation. [Z1]Vague conclusion
{"title":"Examining the Nexus between Inflation and Unemployment (NAIRU Estimation) in Iran","authors":"Nassim Nasseri Oskouie, Hossien Abbasinejad, M. Mehrara","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.78843","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.78843","url":null,"abstract":"T \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000his paper aims to estimate Iran’s time-varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) over the period 1986–2018. The NAIRU is estimated step by step starting with the constant NAIRU and then the time-varying NAIRU. The time-varying NAIRU is estimated by the Kalman filter and is compared to HP filter estimates. This model relies on the standard “triangle model” approach that includes various measures of supply and demand shocks in the specification of the Phillips curve. Results show that the NAIRU has been raised during the period, and according to the econometric results, there is a structural unemployment gap in the long-run, and the actual unemployment rate is approaching full employment[Z1] . In other words, there is not any significant gap between the actual unemployment rate and the estimated one (NAIRU). It shows that the high rate of unemployment is related to the structural elements and cannot be reduced by exerting monetary policies in long run. However, what these policies do in short term is reduce the unemployment rate temporarily and in long run is increasing inflation. \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 [Z1]Vague conclusion","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42284991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
E conomic growth is one of the goals of development in the economic plans of every country. Achieving self-development in OPEC member takes precise awareness of the amount and cause of the impact of economic variables on each other and it is, determining the policies and efficient, appropriate strategies for each case. Among these variables, oil revenues, total government expenditure, government expenditure for education, government expenditure for health, and economic growth could be mentioned. An examination of the trend of changes in health expenditure in Iran shows up until 2011. After that, there has been a leap in these expenditures. The share of government education expenditure in the total government budget in Iran has been showing a steady decline in these expenditures. panel data, we study the relationship between health expenditure and education expenditure and economic growth in OPEC countries and Iran from 2004 to 2016. Hence, the panel data method has been applied to estimate models and the panel VAR method has been applied to examine the causality relationships between variables. The results show a positive meaningful relationship between oil revenues, total government expenditure, government expenditure for education, government expenditure in health, and economic growth of OPEC countries and Iran. Furthermore, the result of the Granger Causality test suggests that there is a practical, mutual relationship between oil revenues and economic growth, total government expenditure and economic growth, and also a practical one-sided relationship of economic growth with government expenditure for education and also one-sided relationship of economic growth with government expenditure for health in OPEC countries and Iran.
{"title":"The Role of Government Health and Education Expenditure on Economic Growth in Iran and OPEC Countries","authors":"E. Anvari, Abdolmajid Ahangari, E. Jafari","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.78837","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.78837","url":null,"abstract":"E \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000conomic growth is one of the goals of development in the economic plans of every country. Achieving self-development in OPEC member takes precise awareness of the amount and cause of the impact of economic variables on each other and it is, determining the policies and efficient, appropriate strategies for each case. Among these variables, oil revenues, total government expenditure, government expenditure for education, government expenditure for health, and economic growth could be mentioned. An examination of the trend of changes in health expenditure in Iran shows up until 2011. After that, there has been a leap in these expenditures. The share of government education expenditure in the total government budget in Iran has been showing a steady decline in these expenditures. panel data, we study the relationship between health expenditure and education expenditure and economic growth in OPEC countries and Iran from 2004 to 2016. Hence, the panel data method has been applied to estimate models and the panel VAR method has been applied to examine the causality relationships between variables. The results show a positive meaningful relationship between oil revenues, total government expenditure, government expenditure for education, government expenditure in health, and economic growth of OPEC countries and Iran. Furthermore, the result of the Granger Causality test suggests that there is a practical, mutual relationship between oil revenues and economic growth, total government expenditure and economic growth, and also a practical one-sided relationship of economic growth with government expenditure for education and also one-sided relationship of economic growth with government expenditure for health in OPEC countries and Iran.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46333794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The purpose of this paper is to model the behavior of the housing price in the Iranian market using stochastic differential equations. The data of this study include monthly observations on housing prices for the period from 2009 to 2018. To model the behavior of the housing market, three stochastic differential equations have been used: Black-Scholes model, Merton model, and geometric Brownian motion with nonlinear GARCH. Also, in order to estimate the coefficients of equations, we used the maximum likelihood approach, and the drift and diffusion parameters are calculated. The findings suggest that the efficient-market hypothesis does not hold in the Iranian housing market since the sudden jump under systematic risks is indicative of an increase in inefficiencies in the housing market. In this paper, we also use the non-linear GARCH (NGARCH) model based on the Merton model to investigate the impact of good and bad news and positive and negative shocks. According to the results of the NGARCH model, the housing price is more affected by bad news and negative shocks. In total, according to the estimated equations in the Iranian housing market and given the maximum likelihood function, the geometric Brownian model with stochastic NGARCH-based fluctuations has more explanatory power than the Merton model and the geometric Brownian model with constant fluctuations.
{"title":"Price Jump Diffusion in Iranian Housing Market (Merton Model and NGARCH Approach)","authors":"Khadijeh Dinarzehi, Mohammad Nabi Shahiki Tash","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.78380","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.78380","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to model the behavior of the housing price in the Iranian market using stochastic differential equations. The data of this study include monthly observations on housing prices for the period from 2009 to 2018. To model the behavior of the housing market, three stochastic differential equations have been used: Black-Scholes model, Merton model, and geometric Brownian motion with nonlinear GARCH. Also, in order to estimate the coefficients of equations, we used the maximum likelihood approach, and the drift and diffusion parameters are calculated. The findings suggest that the efficient-market hypothesis does not hold in the Iranian housing market since the sudden jump under systematic risks is indicative of an increase in inefficiencies in the housing market. In this paper, we also use the non-linear GARCH (NGARCH) model based on the Merton model to investigate the impact of good and bad news and positive and negative shocks. According to the results of the NGARCH model, the housing price is more affected by bad news and negative shocks. In total, according to the estimated equations in the Iranian housing market and given the maximum likelihood function, the geometric Brownian model with stochastic NGARCH-based fluctuations has more explanatory power than the Merton model and the geometric Brownian model with constant fluctuations.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48821300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Decentralization is expected, theoretically, to be a route to efficient provision of the local public services. This efficient utilization of scarce resources is further expected to translate into boosting economic growth. Despite strong theoretical footings, the existing empirical literature presents mixed results for the presumed positive relationship between decentralization and economic growth. It is important to note here that the second generation theories of fiscal federalism talk about the enabling environment for decentralization to yield positive results; talking explicitly, an enabling institutional setup is required. Therefore, the current study examines the complementarity between fiscal decentralization and institutions in stimulating growth. A sumptuous cross country panel data for the period from 1990 to 2018 is used for analysis. Results suggest that fiscal decentralization and institutions both are instrumental in economic growth, and there is complementarity between the two. However, over-exposure of local representatives seems to divert their attention from service provision to countering opponents’ strategies.
{"title":"Analyzing the Effectiveness of Fiscal decentralization in Economic Growth: The Role of Institutions","authors":"Muhammad Arif, M. Chishti","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.78144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.78144","url":null,"abstract":"Decentralization is expected, theoretically, to be a route to efficient provision of the local public services. This efficient utilization of scarce resources is further expected to translate into boosting economic growth. Despite strong theoretical footings, the existing empirical literature presents mixed results for the presumed positive relationship between decentralization and economic growth. It is important to note here that the second generation theories of fiscal federalism talk about the enabling environment for decentralization to yield positive results; talking explicitly, an enabling institutional setup is required. Therefore, the current study examines the complementarity between fiscal decentralization and institutions in stimulating growth. A sumptuous cross country panel data for the period from 1990 to 2018 is used for analysis. Results suggest that fiscal decentralization and institutions both are instrumental in economic growth, and there is complementarity between the two. However, over-exposure of local representatives seems to divert their attention from service provision to countering opponents’ strategies.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41942473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study investigated the occurrence of herding in the Iranian stock market and the effects of gold prices and currency exchange rates on this phenomenon. For this purpose, the rate at which herding occurs in the Tehran Stock Exchange was calculated and analyzed, after which stock price data were classified on the basis of gold prices and currency exchange rates. Herding under different exchange rates and gold price returns was also examined. Results showed that herding in the stock market was significant at the 1% level during sharp changes in gold and currency prices.
{"title":"Exchange Rates, Gold Coin Prices, and Herding in the Stock Market","authors":"G. Asadi, H. A. Tabrizi, S. Farazmand","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.78143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.78143","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigated the occurrence of herding in the Iranian stock market and the effects of gold prices and currency exchange rates on this phenomenon. For this purpose, the rate at which herding occurs in the Tehran Stock Exchange was calculated and analyzed, after which stock price data were classified on the basis of gold prices and currency exchange rates. Herding under different exchange rates and gold price returns was also examined. Results showed that herding in the stock market was significant at the 1% level during sharp changes in gold and currency prices.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43422054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The exchange rate and international oil prices are the key variables that indicate the impact of external economic developments, agreements, and relationships. Since in countries like Iran, the government’s revenues mostly come from oil exports in the international markets in the form of foreign exchange, the impact of two variables on the economy has a significant outcome, and fluctuation in both of variable can change the policy. Moreover, the impact of the oil price on the production of goods changes the supply level of economic sectors and incomes of institutions through changing the factors of production and value of intermediate imports. It is significant that the government budget one of the crucial resources to make the fundamental structure of policy to cover expenses. This research has been done using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model in which all markets have settled simultaneously to explore the effects of exchange rate fluctuations and international oil prices on Iran's economy in different scenarios using the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 2011. Results show that any increase in exchange rates and oil prices lead to an increase in government revenues from sales of production factors, and it is more sensitive about oil price shocks, as well as the government faces budget surpluses. Also, when the government faces a surplus or deficit, consumption, saving, and payments change as the model is optimal. Besides, it should be noted that for Iran, using the uniform direct tax policies is more optimal because the budget is less unstable.
{"title":"An Investigation of the Impact of External and Internal Shocks on the Government Budget: A CGE Model Approach","authors":"Rezgar Feizi, K. Ahmadzadeh, B. Javaheri","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.78145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.78145","url":null,"abstract":"The exchange rate and international oil prices are the key variables that indicate the impact of external economic developments, agreements, and relationships. Since in countries like Iran, the government’s revenues mostly come from oil exports in the international markets in the form of foreign exchange, the impact of two variables on the economy has a significant outcome, and fluctuation in both of variable can change the policy. Moreover, the impact of the oil price on the production of goods changes the supply level of economic sectors and incomes of institutions through changing the factors of production and value of intermediate imports. It is significant that the government budget one of the crucial resources to make the fundamental structure of policy to cover expenses. This research has been done using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model in which all markets have settled simultaneously to explore the effects of exchange rate fluctuations and international oil prices on Iran's economy in different scenarios using the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 2011. Results show that any increase in exchange rates and oil prices lead to an increase in government revenues from sales of production factors, and it is more sensitive about oil price shocks, as well as the government faces budget surpluses. Also, when the government faces a surplus or deficit, consumption, saving, and payments change as the model is optimal. Besides, it should be noted that for Iran, using the uniform direct tax policies is more optimal because the budget is less unstable.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42935671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Projections of Persian Gulf Economies are obtained by forecasting their GDPs (constant 2010 US$) with spectral analysis until 2050. Persian Gulf Economies being oil-driven, the special relationship between oil price and Persian Gulf Economies is unfolded with Multiscale Principal Component Analysis and integrated in the forecasts. The GDPs are decomposed in simpler signals called approximations and details in the framework of the one-dimensional discrete wavelet analysis. The simplified signals are recomposed after Burg extension. Spectral analysis forecasts are all bullish for the eight economies of the Persian Gulf. 2050 spectral analysis projections rank Iraq first with an annual growth rate annually compounded of +2.37% and Iran second with +2.19%. The two laggers among the 2050 spectral analysis projections are Saudi Arabia (+1.37%) and Kuwait (-0.04%). 2024 spectral analysis projections rank Iran first with an annual growth rate annually compounded of +4.12% and Iraq second with +3.79% when IMF projections rank Iraq first (+3.17%) and United Arab Emirates (+2.92%). The two laggers among the 2024 spectral analysis projections are Qatar (0.22%) and Kuwait (-3.74%) when the two laggers among the 2024 IMF projections are Saudi Arabia (+2.15%) and Iran (-0.30%). In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has brutally hurt Persian Gulf Economies following a collapse in the global demand for oil and an oversupplied industry. The individual impact on these economies will depend on the response brought by their respective governments.
{"title":"2050 Projections of the Persian Gulf Economies","authors":"Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.77976","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.77976","url":null,"abstract":"Projections of Persian Gulf Economies are obtained by forecasting their GDPs (constant 2010 US$) with spectral analysis until 2050. Persian Gulf Economies being oil-driven, the special relationship between oil price and Persian Gulf Economies is unfolded with Multiscale Principal Component Analysis and integrated in the forecasts. The GDPs are decomposed in simpler signals called approximations and details in the framework of the one-dimensional discrete wavelet analysis. The simplified signals are recomposed after Burg extension. Spectral analysis forecasts are all bullish for the eight economies of the Persian Gulf. 2050 spectral analysis projections rank Iraq first with an annual growth rate annually compounded of +2.37% and Iran second with +2.19%. The two laggers among the 2050 spectral analysis projections are Saudi Arabia (+1.37%) and Kuwait (-0.04%). 2024 spectral analysis projections rank Iran first with an annual growth rate annually compounded of +4.12% and Iraq second with +3.79% when IMF projections rank Iraq first (+3.17%) and United Arab Emirates (+2.92%). The two laggers among the 2024 spectral analysis projections are Qatar (0.22%) and Kuwait (-3.74%) when the two laggers among the 2024 IMF projections are Saudi Arabia (+2.15%) and Iran (-0.30%). In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has brutally hurt Persian Gulf Economies following a collapse in the global demand for oil and an oversupplied industry. The individual impact on these economies will depend on the response brought by their respective governments.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45924355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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