Mostafa Mobini Dehkordi, K. Azarbayjani, Khadije Nasrollahi, S. Tayebi
The immigration of labors has always been noticed by economists since it can change the economy of countries. In the literature of international economics, labor force immigration is studied by the mobility of factors of production and trade. In this case, empirical studies have found substitutive and complementary relationships for the two, which necessitate consideration of other elements influencing this relationship. One of the phenomena that can affect both labor force immigration and bilateral trade is the financial crises of the countries. Therefore, this study analyzes the parametric effect of bilateral trade and the nonparametric effect of financial crises on labor force immigration in the Middle East and OECD countries during the period of 1995–2017. For this purpose, two indices of banking market pressure and debt market pressure have been used to study financial crises such as banking crises and sovereign debt crises, and the semi-parametric gravity model of immigration has been estimated by using random effects. The estimation results show that there is a substitution relationship between bilateral trade and labor force immigration, and both types of mentioned financial crises have a non-parametric effect on immigration. So that the effect of these two types of financial crises on labor force immigration has been on the upward for some periods and downward for other periods. Besides, these financial crises have reduced the labor force immigration among business partners. In other words, there has been a nonlinear relationship between the two financial crises.
{"title":"An Analysis of the Relationship between Bilateral Trade and Labor Force Immigration Considering the Role of Financial Crises (Banking and Sovereign Debt Crises)","authors":"Mostafa Mobini Dehkordi, K. Azarbayjani, Khadije Nasrollahi, S. Tayebi","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.77971","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.77971","url":null,"abstract":"The immigration of labors has always been noticed by economists since it can change the economy of countries. In the literature of international economics, labor force immigration is studied by the mobility of factors of production and trade. In this case, empirical studies have found substitutive and complementary relationships for the two, which necessitate consideration of other elements influencing this relationship. One of the phenomena that can affect both labor force immigration and bilateral trade is the financial crises of the countries. Therefore, this study analyzes the parametric effect of bilateral trade and the nonparametric effect of financial crises on labor force immigration in the Middle East and OECD countries during the period of 1995–2017. For this purpose, two indices of banking market pressure and debt market pressure have been used to study financial crises such as banking crises and sovereign debt crises, and the semi-parametric gravity model of immigration has been estimated by using random effects. The estimation results show that there is a substitution relationship between bilateral trade and labor force immigration, and both types of mentioned financial crises have a non-parametric effect on immigration. So that the effect of these two types of financial crises on labor force immigration has been on the upward for some periods and downward for other periods. Besides, these financial crises have reduced the labor force immigration among business partners. In other words, there has been a nonlinear relationship between the two financial crises.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47544754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The purpose of this paper is to consider the relationship between inflation and government size in OPEC countries during the period 2000-2015. Estimation results from different linear panel models with quadratic form of government size and non-linear panel models including static and dynamic panel threshold models suggest that there is a non-linear relationship between government size and the inflation rate in these countries. The threshold value of government size is estimated as 17.76% for all the threshold panel models with different control variables. Below this threshold value, an increase in government size has a significant negative impact on the inflation rate. When government size grows larger, an increasing government size has a significant positive impact on the inflation rate. This paper suggests that it is possible to explain the contradictory evidence of previous studies by making use of a non-linear model.
{"title":"Non-Linear Effects of Government Size on Inflation in OPEC Countries: A Threshold Panel Approach","authors":"Y. Nademi, P. Winker","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.77970","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.77970","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to consider the relationship between inflation and government size in OPEC countries during the period 2000-2015. Estimation results from different linear panel models with quadratic form of government size and non-linear panel models including static and dynamic panel threshold models suggest that there is a non-linear relationship between government size and the inflation rate in these countries. The threshold value of government size is estimated as 17.76% for all the threshold panel models with different control variables. Below this threshold value, an increase in government size has a significant negative impact on the inflation rate. When government size grows larger, an increasing government size has a significant positive impact on the inflation rate. This paper suggests that it is possible to explain the contradictory evidence of previous studies by making use of a non-linear model.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47245595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examined the dynamics of monetary policy and output growth in Economic Community of West African States between 1980(Q1) and 2019(Q4). The study used time series data spanning from 1980 (Q1) to 2019 (Q4). Data for this study was sourced from World Bank database and International Monetary Fund database. This study made use of panel co-integration ARDL approach and panel vector autoregressive model as estimation techniques. The results of the pooled data for ECOWAS countries confirmed that all the variables of interest were stationary after the first difference i.e. they were integrated of order I(1). Findings from the study revealed that there is a long-run relationship between output growth and monetary policy variables both in Anglophone and Francophone ECOWAS countries. westerlund panel co-integration test was also used to examine the determinants of output growth in ECOWAS countries. The results of both long-run model and short-run model of the ARDL regression estimate showed that interest rate, money supply growth rate, consumer expenditure, gross capital formation and government expenditure were significant determinants of output growth in ECOWAS Countries. Exchange rate, net exports and human capital were insignificant determinants of output growth in ECOWAS countries during the study period. In addition, it was equally revealed that exchangerate has a negative and significant impact on output growth in Anglophone ECOWAS countries while on the contrary; exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on output growth in Francophone ECOWAS countries. Based on these findings, the study therefore recommends that ECOWAS countries should implement economic policies aimed at improving human capital, favorable terms of trade and work towards achieving an appropriate exchange rate as this will help to stimulate andimprove output growth in ECOWAS countries.
{"title":"The Dynamics of Monetary Policy and Output Growth in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)","authors":"Ogunsakin Sanya, Fasina Oluwadamilola Tosin","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.77975","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.77975","url":null,"abstract":"This study examined the dynamics of monetary policy and output growth in Economic Community of West African States between 1980(Q1) and 2019(Q4). The study used time series data spanning from 1980 (Q1) to 2019 (Q4). Data for this study was sourced from World Bank database and International Monetary Fund database. This study made use of panel co-integration ARDL approach and panel vector autoregressive model as estimation techniques. The results of the pooled data for ECOWAS countries confirmed that all the variables of interest were stationary after the first difference i.e. they were integrated of order I(1). Findings from the study revealed that there is a long-run relationship between output growth and monetary policy variables both in Anglophone and Francophone ECOWAS countries. westerlund panel co-integration test was also used to examine the determinants of output growth in ECOWAS countries. The results of both long-run model and short-run model of the ARDL regression estimate showed that interest rate, money supply growth rate, consumer expenditure, gross capital formation and government expenditure were significant determinants of output growth in ECOWAS Countries. Exchange rate, net exports and human capital were insignificant determinants of output growth in ECOWAS countries during the study period. In addition, it was equally revealed that exchangerate has a negative and significant impact on output growth in Anglophone ECOWAS countries while on the contrary; exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on output growth in Francophone ECOWAS countries. Based on these findings, the study therefore recommends that ECOWAS countries should implement economic policies aimed at improving human capital, favorable terms of trade and work towards achieving an appropriate exchange rate as this will help to stimulate andimprove output growth in ECOWAS countries.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43479926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Seyed Mohammadreza Mahdavian, Najmeh Tafarojnooroz, A. Akbari
The world economy is moving more and more towards globalization, and there has been significant growth in international trade, especially in the last two decades. Increasing economic integration in the world has led to the importance of environmental issues. The present study seeks to investigate the effects of globalization on the quality of the environment along with the variables of GDP, energy consumption and industrialization index considering the structural break in Iran between 1971 and 2017. The stationarity of the variables was investigated by Lee-Strazicich test and co-integration between variables with multiple breaks was measured using Maki test. It was found, using the FMOLS approach, that globalization, energy consumption, and industrialization have positive and significant effects on environmental pollution (CO2 emission). The relationship between GDP and the squared GDP with CO2 emissions is negative and positive, respectively, that is the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is not confirmed in Iran and is U-shaped. Also, according to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, there is a one-way causality from energy consumption to CO2 emissions, globalization, and GDP. In addition, one-way causality was observed from GDP and industrialization to globalization, and from CO2 emissions to GDP.
{"title":"Globalization and its Effect on the Environment: A Case Study of Iran in the Presence of Structural Breaks","authors":"Seyed Mohammadreza Mahdavian, Najmeh Tafarojnooroz, A. Akbari","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.77977","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.77977","url":null,"abstract":"The world economy is moving more and more towards globalization, and there has been significant growth in international trade, especially in the last two decades. Increasing economic integration in the world has led to the importance of environmental issues. The present study seeks to investigate the effects of globalization on the quality of the environment along with the variables of GDP, energy consumption and industrialization index considering the structural break in Iran between 1971 and 2017. The stationarity of the variables was investigated by Lee-Strazicich test and co-integration between variables with multiple breaks was measured using Maki test. It was found, using the FMOLS approach, that globalization, energy consumption, and industrialization have positive and significant effects on environmental pollution (CO2 emission). The relationship between GDP and the squared GDP with CO2 emissions is negative and positive, respectively, that is the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is not confirmed in Iran and is U-shaped. Also, according to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, there is a one-way causality from energy consumption to CO2 emissions, globalization, and GDP. In addition, one-way causality was observed from GDP and industrialization to globalization, and from CO2 emissions to GDP.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49410975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Experiences often by many countries slowing economic growth as a result of central government-centered funding policies. The concern about slowing economic growth is motivating the need for a decentralized policy in development funding to foster economic growth. The research aims to describe the policy influence of the decentralization of funding sources between central and local governments to foster economic growth in East Java. This research method uses an explanation design with a quantitative approach. Data panels are collected from 38 cities/counties among 2009 to 2018 years, in East Java, with analysis using regression technique with SPSS version 23. The results of this study showed that decentralization of funding sources can increase significantly on local economic activities and affect the increase of local economic growth. Increasing local economic activity can significantly increase economic growth. While local growing of economics can significantly increased on welfare for society in East Java. These findings remind the importance of the policy that decentralized funding will contribute positively to the growth of local economies. More importantly, if the local government in total regulates the sources of fiscal income and effective expenditure, decentralized funding will be able to encourage the growth of the local economy, which will eventually improve the welfare of the people in East Java.
{"title":"Can Funding Decentralization Influence The Local Economic Growth","authors":"W. Subroto, Imam Baidlowi","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.77978","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.77978","url":null,"abstract":"Experiences often by many countries slowing economic growth as a result of central government-centered funding policies. The concern about slowing economic growth is motivating the need for a decentralized policy in development funding to foster economic growth. The research aims to describe the policy influence of the decentralization of funding sources between central and local governments to foster economic growth in East Java. This research method uses an explanation design with a quantitative approach. Data panels are collected from 38 cities/counties among 2009 to 2018 years, in East Java, with analysis using regression technique with SPSS version 23. The results of this study showed that decentralization of funding sources can increase significantly on local economic activities and affect the increase of local economic growth. Increasing local economic activity can significantly increase economic growth. While local growing of economics can significantly increased on welfare for society in East Java. These findings remind the importance of the policy that decentralized funding will contribute positively to the growth of local economies. More importantly, if the local government in total regulates the sources of fiscal income and effective expenditure, decentralized funding will be able to encourage the growth of the local economy, which will eventually improve the welfare of the people in East Java.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42267683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
T his study examines the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and employment in the Indonesia construction service sector. The method used in this study is Panel VECM Granger. The data used are the data of FDI inflow and employment in the construction sector in some provinces, namely North Sumatra, Riau, Jakarta, West Java, East Java, and Bali from 2000 to 2014. The share of the six provinces is 80% of the total national FDI in the construction sector. The results showed that there is unidirectional causality in the short-term and long-term between FDI and labor. That relationship is the inflow of FDI strongly influenced by employment. In other words, Indonesian human resources can encourage investors to invest in Indonesia and not vice versa.
{"title":"Revisiting the Nexus of FDI and Employment in International Trade: Evidence from the Emerging Construction Service Sector","authors":"Herlitah Herlitah, M. Fawaiq, Herlindah Herlindah","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.77644","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.77644","url":null,"abstract":"T his study examines the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and employment in the Indonesia construction service sector. The method used in this study is Panel VECM Granger. The data used are the data of FDI inflow and employment in the construction sector in some provinces, namely North Sumatra, Riau, Jakarta, West Java, East Java, and Bali from 2000 to 2014. The share of the six provinces is 80% of the total national FDI in the construction sector. The results showed that there is unidirectional causality in the short-term and long-term between FDI and labor. That relationship is the inflow of FDI strongly influenced by employment. In other words, Indonesian human resources can encourage investors to invest in Indonesia and not vice versa.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45522249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I ran Insurance Company intends to raise its financial credit and render enhanced services to the insured and the public. The need to meet financial obligations arising from the claims requires determination of the optimum deposited claims reserve with banks. Therefore, the present research study aimed at finding the loss ratio (incurred losses to premium), and determining the optimum portfolio of risky and risk-free assets of insurance companies during 1996-2017 by conducting a case study on Iran Insurance Company. Based on the relevant data, the highest loss ratio with 81 percent belonged to 1998-99 and the lowest ratio with 62 percent belonged to 2003-2004. To determine the optimum portfolio of Iran Insurance Company, Konno Mean-Absolute Deviation Portfolio Optimization Model was utilized. According to the Konno Model, the optimum portfolios of risk-free and risky assets are as follows: Short-term banking deposits with 9 percent, long-term banking deposits with 46 percent, bank certificates of deposits (CDs) and participation papers with 9 percent, stocks of companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) with 17 percent, stocks of companies not listed on the TSE with 11 percent, and other assets, i.e. risky assets, including housing loan for employees of insurance companies, offering facilities to the agencies of insurance companies, purchasing immovable assets, and other financial instruments and constructions with 8 percent.
{"title":"The Optimum Portfolio Based on Konno Linear Programming Model (A Case Study on the Iran Insurance Company)","authors":"E. Abbasian, Seyed Ehsan Hosseinidoust","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.77645","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.77645","url":null,"abstract":"I ran Insurance Company intends to raise its financial credit and render enhanced services to the insured and the public. The need to meet financial obligations arising from the claims requires determination of the optimum deposited claims reserve with banks. Therefore, the present research study aimed at finding the loss ratio (incurred losses to premium), and determining the optimum portfolio of risky and risk-free assets of insurance companies during 1996-2017 by conducting a case study on Iran Insurance Company. Based on the relevant data, the highest loss ratio with 81 percent belonged to 1998-99 and the lowest ratio with 62 percent belonged to 2003-2004. To determine the optimum portfolio of Iran Insurance Company, Konno Mean-Absolute Deviation Portfolio Optimization Model was utilized. According to the Konno Model, the optimum portfolios of risk-free and risky assets are as follows: Short-term banking deposits with 9 percent, long-term banking deposits with 46 percent, bank certificates of deposits (CDs) and participation papers with 9 percent, stocks of companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) with 17 percent, stocks of companies not listed on the TSE with 11 percent, and other assets, i.e. risky assets, including housing loan for employees of insurance companies, offering facilities to the agencies of insurance companies, purchasing immovable assets, and other financial instruments and constructions with 8 percent.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45925622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Feizpour, Abolfazl Shahmohammadi Mehrjardi, Marjan Habibi
The empirical studies have shown that cost advantages can occur due to economies of scale and economies of learning. However, a few studies have attempted to distinguish between these two effects on reducing costs. This paper is the first attempt on recognizing the impact of learning on reducing the cost with distinguishing the effect of economies of scale in Iran. Therefore, this study aims to shed light on cost benefits of industries based on learning and economies of scale in terms of their structures, as industries with various structures have different performances. Using industries at four-digit ISIC levels during 1997 to 2005, the findings show that learning rates is not uniform across industries and in fact learning rates are more than the effect of scale economies in only 11 among 31 industries. Moreover, the effect of learning in reducing cost in monopolistic industries is more than oligopolistic and competitive industries and similarly, learning is more in oligopolistic than competitive industries. From policy point of view, competitive industries should try to focus their efforts on achieving both dynamic and static dimensions of cost advantages to enhance their competitiveness in order to keep market shares.
{"title":"Learning Curve and Industry Structure: Evidences from Iranian Manufacturing Industries","authors":"M. Feizpour, Abolfazl Shahmohammadi Mehrjardi, Marjan Habibi","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.77649","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.77649","url":null,"abstract":"The empirical studies have shown that cost advantages can occur due to economies of scale and economies of learning. However, a few studies have attempted to distinguish between these two effects on reducing costs. This paper is the first attempt on recognizing the impact of learning on reducing the cost with distinguishing the effect of economies of scale in Iran. Therefore, this study aims to shed light on cost benefits of industries based on learning and economies of scale in terms of their structures, as industries with various structures have different performances. Using industries at four-digit ISIC levels during 1997 to 2005, the findings show that learning rates is not uniform across industries and in fact learning rates are more than the effect of scale economies in only 11 among 31 industries. Moreover, the effect of learning in reducing cost in monopolistic industries is more than oligopolistic and competitive industries and similarly, learning is more in oligopolistic than competitive industries. From policy point of view, competitive industries should try to focus their efforts on achieving both dynamic and static dimensions of cost advantages to enhance their competitiveness in order to keep market shares.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41264326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
T he main objective of this paper was the investigation of the impact of the trade openness on economic growth in Pakistan. We have been employed both the Johensen and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Co-integration together with ECM Techniques for the period 1975-2016. The empirical estimated results are the sound evidence that there exists a short-run and long-run positive and stable cointegration among the variables. Our empirical findings further depict that trade openness and foreign direct investment has a significant positive impact on economic growth in Pakistan. Moreover, the Granger causality test also confirms the bidirectional causality between trade openness and economic growth. It is, therefore, concluded that trade openness can play a key role as the economic growth of Pakistan is concerned.
{"title":"The Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Growth in Pakistan; ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Co-integration","authors":"K. Zafar","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.77643","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.77643","url":null,"abstract":"T he main objective of this paper was the investigation of the impact of the trade openness on economic growth in Pakistan. We have been employed both the Johensen and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Co-integration together with ECM Techniques for the period 1975-2016. The empirical estimated results are the sound evidence that there exists a short-run and long-run positive and stable cointegration among the variables. Our empirical findings further depict that trade openness and foreign direct investment has a significant positive impact on economic growth in Pakistan. Moreover, the Granger causality test also confirms the bidirectional causality between trade openness and economic growth. It is, therefore, concluded that trade openness can play a key role as the economic growth of Pakistan is concerned.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43013113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I n this paper, trading symbols of the 30 largest companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) were ranked based on the asymmetry information risk. Using the Ersan and Alici (2016) modified clustering algorithm (EA), we estimated the probability of informed trading (PIN) to measure the asymmetry information among traders for each trading symbol and trading day through two-year horizon from 20th March 2015 to 19th March 2017. Furthermore, we used the analysis of variance (ANOVA) method to determine the source of variation in the estimated PIN. The results showed that the estimated PIN is less than 0.1 for the 88.2% of the firms-trading days and that is equal to zero for the 60% of the firms-trading days. Symbol trade “MAPN” is traded with the status of full asymmetric information in about 75% of its trading days. Factor weekdays have no significant effect on changing the PIN index. The annual average of the estimated PIN index for the first year is significantly less than the second year. The effects of firm specification on the PIN value will be disappeared after one year.
{"title":"Ranking the Trading Symbols of the Largest Companies Listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange Based on the Probability of Informed Trade Criteria","authors":"Mohammad Mirbagherijam","doi":"10.22059/IER.2020.77638","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2020.77638","url":null,"abstract":"I \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000n this paper, trading symbols of the 30 largest companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) were ranked based on the asymmetry information risk. Using the Ersan and Alici (2016) modified clustering algorithm (EA), we estimated the probability of informed trading (PIN) to measure the asymmetry information among traders for each trading symbol and trading day through two-year horizon from 20th March 2015 to 19th March 2017. Furthermore, we used the analysis of variance (ANOVA) method to determine the source of variation in the estimated PIN. The results showed that the estimated PIN is less than 0.1 for the 88.2% of the firms-trading days and that is equal to zero for the 60% of the firms-trading days. Symbol trade “MAPN” is traded with the status of full asymmetric information in about 75% of its trading days. Factor weekdays have no significant effect on changing the PIN index. The annual average of the estimated PIN index for the first year is significantly less than the second year. The effects of firm specification on the PIN value will be disappeared after one year.","PeriodicalId":38289,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43788040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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