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Proceedings of 1996 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium最新文献

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Collective approach for modeling complex system failures 复杂系统故障建模的集体方法
Pub Date : 1996-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1996.500675
Siang-Ying Choy, J. English, T. L. Landers, Li Yan
This paper defines the functional requirements of a computerized decision support system (DSS) necessary to serve as a working tool in assisting the reliability engineer in equipment repair/replacement management of material handling equipment. It incorporates the knowledge required to build analytical models of complex material handling systems using known techniques of system modeling. The system can be used to guide the data analysis and statistical modeling for both repairable and nonrepairable systems. This project aims at bridging the existing gap between the reliability theory and practical applications in the field of reliability engineering. A prototype of this computerized system is being developed (to be tested at research sponsors locations). The nonhomogenous Poisson process (NHPP), renewal process, Prentice, Williams and Peterson (PWP) model and proportional hazards models are implemented accordingly in this project. The complete knowledge base addresses both parametric and nonparametric methods of reliability estimation. An additional focus of this project involves research on the left-truncated power law intensity model for cases where the early lifetime data are missing. The software is being developed to support each of these models. Case studies are conducted based upon the failure data of industrial forklift trucks. These analyses are being utilized to verify the design of the DSS. In the presentation, we present the organization of the DSS and present one of the case studies.
本文定义了计算机化决策支持系统(DSS)的功能需求,该系统必须作为辅助可靠性工程师进行物料搬运设备维修/更换管理的工作工具。它结合了使用已知的系统建模技术建立复杂材料处理系统分析模型所需的知识。该系统可用于指导可修和不可修系统的数据分析和统计建模。本项目旨在弥补可靠性工程领域中可靠性理论与实际应用之间的差距。这个计算机化系统的原型正在开发中(将在研究资助地点进行测试)。本文采用非齐次泊松过程(NHPP)、更新过程、Prentice, Williams and Peterson (PWP)模型和比例风险模型。完整的知识库涉及可靠性估计的参数和非参数方法。本项目的另一个重点涉及对早期生命期数据缺失情况下的左截尾幂律强度模型的研究。软件正在开发以支持这些模型。基于工业叉车的故障数据进行了案例分析。目前正在利用这些分析来验证决策支助系统的设计。在报告中,我们介绍了决策支持系统的组织,并提出了一个案例研究。
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引用次数: 8
Computational methods for reliability data analysis 可靠性数据分析的计算方法
Pub Date : 1996-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1996.500676
G. Johnston
Many practitioners of component and system reliability are not aware that powerful statistical tools for the analysis of reliability data have been made practical by the availability of inexpensive desk top computers. Software and computational power are available to apply computationally intensive statistical and graphical techniques to reliability data analysis problems. This benefits the industrial statistician or reliability engineer by allowing the use of versatile and accurate methods that apply to many different types of data that are encountered in reliability data analysis. In this paper we apply some of the most useful statistical and graphical techniques to examples of life data, accelerated test data, and repairable system data using new software available in the SAS system. The trend of applying computationally intensive techniques to reliability data analysis will undoubtably continue as more workers recognize the need for creative software to address problems in reliability data analysis.
许多部件和系统可靠性的实践者没有意识到,由于廉价的台式计算机的可用性,用于分析可靠性数据的强大统计工具已经变得实用起来。软件和计算能力可用来应用计算密集的统计和图形技术的可靠性数据分析问题。这有利于工业统计学家或可靠性工程师,允许使用通用和准确的方法,适用于可靠性数据分析中遇到的许多不同类型的数据。在本文中,我们使用SAS系统中可用的新软件,将一些最有用的统计和图形技术应用于生命数据、加速测试数据和可修复系统数据的示例。随着越来越多的工作人员认识到需要创造性的软件来解决可靠性数据分析中的问题,将计算密集型技术应用于可靠性数据分析的趋势无疑将继续下去。
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引用次数: 4
An ordering heuristic for building binary decision diagrams from fault-trees 从故障树中构建二叉决策图的排序启发式方法
Pub Date : 1996-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1996.500664
Marc Bouissou
Binary decision diagrams (BDD) have made a noticeable entry in the RAMS field. This kind of representation for Boolean functions makes possible the assessment of complex fault-trees, both qualitatively (minimal cutsets search) and quantitatively (exact calculation top event probability). Any Boolean function, and in particular any fault-tree, whether coherent or not, can be represented by a BDD. The BDD is a canonical representation of the function, as soon as one has chosen a variable (i.e., in the fault-tree case, basic event) ordering. Tools based on the use of BDDs, like METAPRIME, or ARALIA, can in some cases give more accurate results than conventional tools, while running 1000 times faster. EDF has investigated this kind of technology, and tested METAPRIME, ARALIA, and other tools based on BDDs, in the framework of cooperations with the BULL company and with the Bordeaux University. These tests have demonstrated that the size of the BDD, that has to be built thoroughly before any kind of assessment can begin, is dramatically sensitive to the ordering chosen for the variables. For a given fault-tree, this size may vary by several orders of magnitude. This can lead to excessive needs, both in terms of memory and CPU time. The problem of finding an optimal ordering being untractable for real applications, many heuristics have been proposed, in order to find acceptable orderings, at low cost (in terms of computing requirements).
二进制决策图(BDD)在RAMS领域取得了引人注目的进展。布尔函数的这种表示使得对复杂故障树进行定性(最小割集搜索)和定量(精确计算最高事件概率)的评估成为可能。任何布尔函数,特别是任何故障树,无论是否一致,都可以用BDD表示。一旦选择了变量(例如,在故障树的情况下是基本事件)排序,BDD就是函数的规范表示。基于bdd使用的工具,如METAPRIME或ARALIA,在某些情况下可以提供比传统工具更准确的结果,同时运行速度快1000倍。在与BULL公司和波尔多大学的合作框架下,EDF已经研究了这种技术,并测试了METAPRIME、ARALIA和其他基于bdd的工具。这些测试已经证明,在开始任何类型的评估之前必须彻底构建的BDD的大小对为变量选择的顺序非常敏感。对于给定的故障树,这个大小可能会变化几个数量级。这可能导致对内存和CPU时间的过度需求。寻找最优排序的问题在实际应用中是难以处理的,为了以低成本(就计算需求而言)找到可接受的排序,已经提出了许多启发式方法。
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引用次数: 64
Space Shuttle program risk management 航天飞机项目风险管理
Pub Date : 1996-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1996.500653
J. Fragola
The authors describe how NASA appears to be undergoing a paradigm shift in its approach to Space Shuttle risk management. At least in some quarters, there appears to be a recognition that advances in the state-of-the-art have now made quantitative risk assessments powerful risk management tools, especially for programs such as the Shuttle with its ever increasing flight and test history data sets and its ever shrinking operational budget.
作者描述了NASA似乎正在经历航天飞机风险管理方法的范式转变。至少在某些方面,人们似乎认识到,最先进的技术的进步现在已经使定量风险评估成为强大的风险管理工具,特别是对于像航天飞机这样的项目,它的飞行和测试历史数据集不断增加,而运营预算却不断减少。
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引用次数: 8
Reliability development and improvement of a medical instrument 医疗器械可靠性的开发与改进
Pub Date : 1996-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1996.500668
J. A. McLinn
A new medical blood analyzer (laboratory instrument) was designed, developed and readied for production. Near the end of this series of activities, ten prototype systems exhibited lower than desired reliability in a development test. It was unclear to the designers why this had occurred as "the best design criteria" were employed. A short, controlled, full life test was proposed as a means to quantify the probable types and frequency of failure. This paper details the reliability findings at this point as well as methods for improvement of the typical product. Some of the technical choices and tradeoffs for reliability, maintainability, field performance, costs and quality as well as engineering decisions associated with reliability and field support are identified. Close attention is paid to the identification of a small number of important reliability measures. The reliability, maintainability, support and improvement data should prove highly instructive for any commercial or consumer company wishing to justify starting or continuing the reliability improvement process. Benchmark data is presented to aid others in establishing progress points during development. The data represents a blend of several similar systems.
设计、研制了一种新型医用血液分析仪(实验室仪器),并准备投入生产。在这一系列活动接近尾声时,十个原型系统在开发测试中表现出低于期望的可靠性。设计师不清楚为什么会出现这种情况,因为他们采用了“最佳设计标准”。提出了一种短期的、可控的、全寿命试验,作为量化可能的故障类型和频率的手段。本文详细介绍了在这一点上的可靠性发现以及典型产品的改进方法。在可靠性、可维护性、现场性能、成本和质量以及与可靠性和现场支持相关的工程决策方面,确定了一些技术选择和权衡。对少数重要可靠性指标的识别给予了密切关注。可靠性、可维护性、支持和改进数据应该证明对任何希望证明开始或继续可靠性改进过程的商业或消费者公司具有很高的指导意义。提供基准数据是为了帮助其他人在开发过程中建立进度点。这些数据代表了几个类似系统的混合。
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引用次数: 0
Effortless incremental design FMEA 轻松增量设计FMEA
Pub Date : 1996-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1996.500640
C. Price
Design FMEA of electrical systems is a costly and labour intensive process. Ideally it would be done when the electrical system is first designed, and repeated whenever any change is made to the design. Because of the cost, this has not been possible in the past. This paper describes how an existing tool for automating electrical design failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) can be augmented to make incremental design FMEA much less of a burden for the engineer. The tool is able to generate the effects for each failure mode and to assign significance values to the effects. The first time that it is run on a design, the engineer still has quite a lot of work to do, examining the results and deciding what actions need to be taken because of the FMEA. When a change is made to the circuit, the engineer runs the FMEA tool again and receives a new report. Because of the uniformity of the reports provided by the FMEA tool, it has proved possible to write software which sorts out the failure effects which have changed from the previous analysis and only report those results to the engineer. This makes examination of the repercussions of the incremental FMEA much less effort for the engineer, and makes it feasible to perform an incremental FMEA every time the design is amended.
电气系统的FMEA设计是一个昂贵且劳动密集型的过程。理想情况下,这将在电气系统最初设计时完成,并在对设计进行任何更改时重复。由于成本的原因,这在过去是不可能的。本文描述了如何对现有的自动化电气设计故障模式和影响分析(FMEA)工具进行扩展,使增量设计FMEA大大减轻工程师的负担。该工具能够为每个故障模式生成效果,并为效果分配重要值。第一次在设计上运行时,工程师仍然有相当多的工作要做,检查结果并决定由于FMEA需要采取什么行动。当电路发生变化时,工程师再次运行FMEA工具并收到新的报告。由于FMEA工具提供的报告的统一性,已经证明可以编写软件来整理从以前的分析中改变的故障影响,并仅将这些结果报告给工程师。这使得检查增量FMEA的影响大大减少了工程师的工作量,并且使得每次修改设计时执行增量FMEA变得可行。
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引用次数: 49
Predicting operational availability for systems with redundant, repairable components and multiple sparing levels 预测具有冗余、可修复组件和多个备用级别的系统的操作可用性
Pub Date : 1996-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1996.500679
B. Mitchell, R. Murry
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is a multi-mission project required by law to maintain a prescribed degree of readiness and a mandated performance criteria. The prediction of operational availability is essential to determine operational readiness to satisfy mission requirements. This is accomplished through, the use of availability models utilizing a reliability block diagram (RED) of mission critical components. The RED model calculations incorporate sparing criteria and components using a multi-state model of the operation. Individual component data include: capacity, meantime-between-failure (MTBF), and mean-down-time (MDT) assuming repairable components and instantaneous switching. An accurate site model addresses all of these concerns and provides a good prediction of operational availability. An example of a system without a spare and the same system with a spare is presented to illustrate one method of incorporating sparing into the prediction of operational availability.
战略石油储备(SPR)是一项多任务项目,法律要求其保持规定的准备程度和规定的绩效标准。对作战可用性的预测对于确定满足任务要求的作战准备情况至关重要。这是通过使用关键任务组件的可靠性框图(RED)的可用性模型来完成的。RED模型计算结合了使用操作的多状态模型的节省标准和组件。单个组件数据包括:容量、故障间隔时间(MTBF)和平均停机时间(MDT),假设组件可修复并进行瞬时切换。准确的站点模型可以解决所有这些问题,并提供对操作可用性的良好预测。以无备用系统和有备用系统为例,说明了将备用系统纳入运行可用性预测的一种方法。
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引用次数: 5
Dependability standards: an international perspective 可靠性标准:国际视角
Pub Date : 1996-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1996.500635
C. Benski
This paper is an overview of current activities within the international standards community to harmonize efforts in the dependability field. Cooperation and coordination among different national and international bodies dealing with standards is essential to achieve coherency within a horizontal standards activity such as in dependability standards. The author presents some recent results of this cooperation, in particular, the activities of the QDS (Quality, Dependability and Statistics) committee of ISO and IEC. He also shows specific instances where coordination among international standards bodies has been lacking and indicates potential dangers and pitfalls arising from this, specifically, in terms of contractual conflicts.
本文概述了当前国际标准组织在可靠性领域协调工作的活动。处理标准的不同国家和国际机构之间的合作与协调对于在诸如可靠性标准等横向标准活动中实现一致性至关重要。作者介绍了这种合作的一些最新成果,特别是ISO和IEC的质量、可靠性和统计委员会的活动。他还指出了国际标准机构之间缺乏协调的具体情况,并指出了由此产生的潜在危险和陷阱,特别是在合同冲突方面。
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引用次数: 2
Applying logistic regression to maintenance data to establish inspection intervals 对维修数据进行逻辑回归,建立检查间隔
Pub Date : 1996-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1996.500678
K.E. Spezzaferro
As budgets are decreasing, it is imperative to select maintenance inspection interval lengths that minimize costs without risk of compromising safety or operational effectiveness issues. However, the data required are not always available or conducive to standard analytic techniques. This paper discusses the application of logistic regression to existing maintenance inspection data to establish inspection intervals. Logistic regression response variables are binary or go/no-go, variables which do not lend themselves to analysis with traditional methods. This paper presents the methodology along with pertinent results.
随着预算的减少,必须选择维护检查间隔长度,以最大限度地降低成本,同时不影响安全性或操作效率问题。然而,所需的数据并不总是可用的或有利于标准分析技术。本文讨论了对现有维修检查数据进行逻辑回归的应用,以确定维修检查间隔。逻辑回归响应变量是二元的或者是go/no-go,这些变量不适合用传统方法进行分析。本文介绍了该方法及其相关结果。
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引用次数: 13
New burn-in methodology based on IC attributes, family IC burn-in data, and failure mechanism analysis 基于IC属性、家族IC老化数据和失效机制分析的新老化方法
Pub Date : 1996-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1996.500661
Sut-Mui Tang
This paper describes a new methodology for selecting effective burn-in strategies for integrated circuits (ICs) in automotive applications. The method analyzes failure mechanisms for different IC technologies and utilizes family IC data to determine appropriate burn-in conditions for new ICs. The burn-in effectiveness for metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS) and bipolar technologies is discussed. Burn-in data is presented to demonstrate that burn-in is no longer a cost effective screening process for bipolar ICs and some MOS ICs, but it is still needed for MOS ICs with large die sizes and complex processing technologies. Data also reveals that burn-in is primarily useful for detecting wafer processing defects rather than packaging defects. To select family ICs, a method based on IC attributes is described. Practical guidelines on how to use family IC data and acceleration factors to reduce burn-in time are also explained.
本文介绍了一种新的方法来选择有效的烧旧策略的集成电路(ic)在汽车应用。该方法分析了不同IC技术的失效机制,并利用家族IC数据来确定新IC的适当老化条件。讨论了金属氧化物半导体(MOS)和双极技术的烧蚀效率。老化数据表明,对于双极集成电路和一些MOS集成电路来说,老化不再是一种具有成本效益的筛选过程,但对于具有大芯片尺寸和复杂加工技术的MOS集成电路来说,仍然需要老化。数据还显示,老化主要用于检测晶圆加工缺陷,而不是封装缺陷。介绍了一种基于IC属性的IC族选择方法。还解释了如何使用家庭IC数据和加速因子来减少老化时间的实用指南。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
Proceedings of 1996 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium
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