Social Security Bulletin最新文献

Based on the adjudicative process, the author classifies claimant-level data over an 8-year period (1997-2004) into four mutually exclusive categories: (1) initial allowances, (2) initial denials not appealed, (3) final allowances, and (4) final denials. The ability to predict those outcomes is explored within a multilevel modeling framework, with applicants clustered by state and primary diagnosis code. Variance decomposition suggests that medical diagnoses play a substantial role in explaining individual-level variation in initial allowances. Moreover, there is statistically significant high positive correlation between the predictions of an initial allowance and a final allowance across the diagnoses. This finding suggests that the ordinal ranking of impairments between these two adjudicative outcomes is widely preserved. In other words, impairments with a higher expectation of an initial allowance also tend to have a higher expectation of a final allowance.

As a major source of income for retired persons in the United States, Social Security benefits directly influence economic well-being. That fact underscores the importance of measuring Social Security income accurately in household surveys. Using Social Security Administration (SSA) records, we examine Social Security income as reported in two Census Bureau surveys, the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) and the Current Population Survey (CPS). Although SSA usually deducts Medicare premiums from benefit payments, both the CPS and the SIPP aim to collect and record gross Social Security benefit amounts (before Medicare premium deductions). We find that the Social Security benefit recorded in the CPS closely approximates the gross benefit recorded for CPS respondents in SSA's records, but the Social Security benefit recorded in the SIPP more closely approximates SSA's record of net benefit payments (after deducting Medicare premiums).

Many youths with disabilities, especially those receiving or potentially eligible for Social Security benefits, need assistance as they transition into adulthood. Upon completing secondary school, they face an abrupt end to provider-initiated public entitlement services. They often lack the knowledge and support to access and link fragmented adult support services. This article presents an overview of two projects in the Social Security Administration's Youth Transition Demonstration: California's Bridges to Youth Self-Sufficiency and Mississippi's Model Youth Transition Innovation. We report key outcomes and highlight the experience of one youth in each project who successfully completed the program.

The Social Security Administration (SSA) periodically reviews the disabilities of Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients and Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) beneficiaries to determine if their impairments still meet the requirements for program eligibility. For individuals whose eligibility was ceased after a full medical review from 2003 to 2008, we track subsequent program participation for up to 8 years. We use survival analyses to estimate the time untilfirst return to SSI and DI and explore the differences in returns by various personal and programmatic characteristics such as age, disability type, time on program, and SSA expectations regarding medical improvement. Overall, we estimate that about 30 percent ofSSI-only recipients whose eligibility ceases because of medical improvement return to the SSI program within 8 years. For DI-only worker beneficiaries whose eligibility ceases, we estimate that 20 percent will return to the DI program within 8 years.

The retirement earnings test (RET) is an often-misunderstood aspect of the Social Security program. Proposed RET reforms meant to encourage working at older ages could also cause earlier benefit claiming. We use Modeling Income in the Near Term data to analyze the complete repeal of the earnings test for beneficiaries aged 60 or older, first assuming no behavioral responses to repeal and secondly assuming changes to benefit claiming and workforce participation behaviors. We find that beneficiaries affected by RET repeal would generally receive significantly higher benefits when they are younger than the full retirement age (FRA), and somewhat lower benefits after reaching FRA. RET repeal would not significantly change individuals' lifetime benefits and we find no significant changes in the overall poverty rate under either scenario. We find that assumed behavioral responses-particularly the benefit claiming change--have a bigger effect on lifetime benefits than the RET policy change itself.

The increasing cost of employer contributions for employee health insurance reduces the share of compensation subject to the Social Security payroll tax. Rising insurance contributions can also have a more subtle effect on the Social Security tax base because they influence the distribution of money wages above and below the taxable maximum amount. This article uses the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to analyze trends in employer health insurance contributions and the distribution of those costs up and down the wage distribution. Our analysis shows that employer health insurance contributions increased faster than overall compensation during 1996-2008, but such contributions grew only slightly faster among workers earning less than the taxable maximum than they did among those earning more. Because employer health insurance contributions represent a much higher percentage of compensation below the taxable maximum, health insurance cost trends exerted a disproportionate downward pressure on money wages below the taxable maximum.