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Exploring Systemic Risk Measurement Issues in Shadow Banks: A Case of an Emerging Economy 影子银行系统性风险度量问题探讨:以新兴经济体为例
IF 0.9 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-07-11 DOI: 10.1177/22779787221107716
Nandita Bhattacharjee, A. P. Pati
The development of shadow banks, their exaggerated growth rate and the activities outside the regulatory purview gained prominence. Their activities have the ability to disrupt financial stability. India is one of the countries that has registered the highest growth rate. Therefore, the article attempts to identify the SBs that can threaten the economy by applying market-based measures, applying both traditional and modern approaches. The analysis is based on 11 years of the daily stock return of the companies listed on the National Stock Exchange. The risk emitters in the study period are identified along with the directionality of the risk that can lead to a spill over effect in an economy. Also, the various measurement approaches applied in the study are compared and found that conventional measures underestimate the risk that adds up to the leverage and can pose a greater risk in times of the systemic event. These findings have better implications as informed decisions can be taken by the investors, and the regulators can take preventive steps to curb financial instability. JEL Classifications: G230, F650, G01
影子银行的发展、其夸张的增长速度和监管范围之外的活动凸显出来。他们的活动有能力破坏金融稳定。印度是经济增长率最高的国家之一。因此,本文试图通过应用传统和现代方法,采用基于市场的措施来识别可能威胁经济的SBs。该分析基于11年来在美国国家证券交易所上市公司的每日股票回报。研究期间的风险排放者与可能导致经济溢出效应的风险的方向性一起被确定。此外,对研究中应用的各种测量方法进行了比较,发现传统的测量方法低估了增加杠杆的风险,并且在发生系统性事件时可能造成更大的风险。这些发现具有更好的意义,因为投资者可以做出明智的决定,监管机构可以采取预防性措施来遏制金融不稳定。JEL分类:G230, F650, G01
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引用次数: 1
External Debt and Real Exchange Rate Volatility in South Asia 南亚的外债与实际汇率波动
IF 0.9 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-07-07 DOI: 10.1177/22779787221107711
M. Moazzam
This study empirically examines the mechanism that connects debt accumulation to exchange rate volatility through the lens of important macroeconomic variables in South Asian Countries. One of the most influential explanatory factors behind exchange rate volatility is deemed as the flow of external debt for these countries. Using data from the World Development Indicators for the period 1980–2020, it is shown that external debt increases exchange rate volatility, significantly. The model is identified via panel Granger tests for relevant variables, estimated for a wide range of covariates and tested for all possible sources of endogeneity via subsequent robustness analyses. JEL Classification: C33, F31, H6, O53
本研究通过南亚国家重要宏观经济变量的视角,实证考察了债务积累与汇率波动之间的联系机制。汇率波动背后最具影响力的解释因素之一被认为是这些国家的外债流动。利用《世界发展指标》1980-2020年期间的数据显示,外债显著增加了汇率波动。该模型通过相关变量的面板格兰杰检验确定,估计了广泛的协变量,并通过随后的稳健性分析测试了所有可能的内生性来源。JEL分类:C33, F31, H6, O53
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引用次数: 0
Understanding the COVID Economic Crisis: A Short- Run General Equilibrium Framework 理解新冠肺炎经济危机:一个短期一般均衡框架
IF 0.9 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/22779787221097787
Agnirup Sarkar
The article develops a static general equilibrium framework, in terms of which effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on output and employment of different sectors are analysed for a country like India where there are many regions, interregional migration and a large informal sector. In particular, three pandemic-induced shocks, namely, stoppage of interregional migration, supply bottlenecks and demand shrinkages are considered in a short-run set-up where prices and wages are rigid. It is shown that supply shocks in one region or sector generates binding demand constraints in others. Monetary transfer by the government increases employment and output. JEL Classifications: D5, E2
本文建立了一个静态的总体均衡框架,分析了持续的新冠肺炎疫情对印度等地区众多、区域间移民和大型非正规经济部门不同部门产出和就业的影响。特别是,在价格和工资僵化的短期环境中,三种由疫情引发的冲击,即区域间移民的停止、供应瓶颈和需求萎缩。研究表明,一个地区或部门的供应冲击会对其他地区或部门产生约束性的需求约束。政府的货币转移增加了就业和产出。JEL分类:D5、E2
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引用次数: 0
Book review: Y. V. Reddy and G. R. Reddy, Indian Fiscal Federalism 书评:Y. V.雷迪和G. R.雷迪:《印度财政联邦制》
IF 0.9 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-06-29 DOI: 10.1177/22779787221107717
Bakshi Amit Kumar Sinha
Y. V. Reddy and G. R. Reddy, Indian Fiscal Federalism. New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2019, ₹695, XXVIII + 274 pp. (hardcover). ISBN: 0-19-949362-6.
Y. V. Reddy和G. R. Reddy,印度财政联邦制。新德里:牛津大学出版社,2019,₹695,XXVIII + 274页(精装)。ISBN: 0-19-949362-6。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Stock Price Volatility: A Literature Review 股票价格波动的决定因素:文献综述
IF 0.9 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-06-21 DOI: 10.4038/sajf.v2i1.44
Ranil Hewamana, D. Siriwardhane, A. Rathnayake
Purpose: This paper reviews the theoretical background and the empirical results of the stock price volatility determinants under three categories: macroeconomic, company-specific fundamentals, and behavioral factors. Methodology: Previous empirical and theoretical articles on volatility determinants were compared to identify the similarities and differences of the findings. The systematic literature review followed to review the articles published in English between 1930 and 2021. Design: A critical literature review was performed by comparing the findings of previous studies based on the development status of the market. We discuss determinants of stock price volatility. Determinants include behavioral (non-fundamental) factors and macro-economic factors such as GDP, Inflation, Interest Rate, Money Supply, and Exchange Rate. In addition to Earnings and Dividend Payments have been considered under company-specific fundamentals. Findings: It was found that there is no agreement between the studies on the macro-level and micro-level determinants of stock volatility. This empirical inconsistency is substantial in GDP, Inflation, Money Supply, Exchange Rate, Earnings, and Dividend Payments. The interest rate is the only determinant that shows moderate inconclusive empirical results. However, behavioral determinants appear to be significance consistency in determining the stock price volatility. Originality: This article reviews the theoretical and empirical background of stock volatility determinants since there is no single article for reviewing theoretical and empirical results. In a single paper, we provide evidence relating to the impact of macroeconomic, company-specific, and behavioral factors on stock price volatility. Research Directions – Future research is needed to examine the reason for empirical inconsistency in volatility determinants. A systematic literature review is essential.
目的:本文从宏观经济因素、公司特定基本面因素和行为因素三个方面综述了股价波动决定因素的理论背景和实证结果。方法:以前的经验和理论文章对波动率决定因素进行比较,以确定相似性和差异的发现。随后进行系统文献综述,回顾1930年至2021年间发表的英文文章。设计:根据市场发展现状,通过比较以往研究结果,进行批判性文献综述。我们讨论股票价格波动的决定因素。决定因素包括行为(非基本面)因素和宏观经济因素,如GDP、通货膨胀、利率、货币供应量和汇率。此外,收益和股息支付已被考虑在公司特定的基本面。研究发现:对股票波动的宏观和微观影响因素的研究结果并不一致。这种经验上的不一致在GDP、通货膨胀、货币供给、汇率、收益和股息支付方面都是实质性的。利率是唯一表现出适度不确定实证结果的决定因素。然而,行为决定因素在决定股价波动方面表现出显著性一致性。原创性:本文回顾了股票波动决定因素的理论和实证背景,因为没有单独的文章来回顾理论和实证结果。在一篇论文中,我们提供了有关宏观经济、公司特定因素和行为因素对股价波动影响的证据。研究方向-未来的研究需要检查波动率决定因素的经验不一致的原因。系统的文献综述是必要的。
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引用次数: 0
Banking Sector Development and Economic Growth in Sri Lanka: An Econometric Analysis 斯里兰卡银行业发展与经济增长:计量经济学分析
IF 0.9 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-06-21 DOI: 10.4038/sajf.v2i1.42
M. Wijesinghe, P. Dulanjani
Purpose: This study aims to explore the role of the banking sector in elevating the economic growth of Sri Lanka by identifying the short-run and long-run relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in Sri Lanka. Design/Methodology/Approach: This study uses annual data for the period 1960 to 2019 from World Bank's Global Financial Development Database and World Development Indicators. Odedokun's model, which assumes the causation between financial development to economic growth, is employed using the bound test within the ARDL framework. Findings: The estimated long-term parameter of the banking industry development indicator was found to be positively affected economic growth by supporting supply-led growth model. The estimations of the Error Correction Model provide a broad picture of the short-term relationship, and the results are highly consistent with the results of the long-term model. Granger Causality test found that the banking sector development granger cause to the GDP indicating a unilateral relationship. Originality: This study differs from the existing studies, which focus on the neoclassical one-sector aggregate production model. Financial development is input along with other real sector variables to identify the short-run and long-run relationship with the help of a newly developed econometric approach.
目的:本研究旨在通过识别斯里兰卡银行业发展与经济增长之间的短期和长期关系,探讨银行业在提升斯里兰卡经济增长中的作用。设计/方法/方法:本研究使用世界银行全球金融发展数据库和世界发展指标中1960年至2019年的年度数据。Odedokun模型假设了金融发展与经济增长之间的因果关系,并在ARDL框架下使用了约束检验。研究发现:通过支持供给主导增长模型,银行业发展指标的长期参数估计值对经济增长具有正向影响。误差修正模型的估计提供了短期关系的概貌,其结果与长期模型的结果高度一致。格兰杰因果检验发现,银行业发展对GDP的格兰杰因果关系表明为单边关系。独创性:本研究不同于现有的研究,主要集中在新古典的单部门总生产模型上。在新开发的计量经济学方法的帮助下,金融发展与其他实体部门变量一起输入,以确定短期和长期关系。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of Behavioral Biases on Investment Decision Making with Moderating Role of Financial Literacy and Risk Attitude: A Study Based on Colombo Stock Exchange 行为偏差对投资决策的影响:金融素养和风险态度的调节作用——基于科伦坡证券交易所的研究
IF 0.9 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-06-21 DOI: 10.4038/sajf.v2i1.32
S. Ranaweera, B. Kawshala
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引用次数: 0
Stakeholders’ Perception on Auditors’ Role and Its Impact on Audit Expectation Gap with Special Reference to Licensed Commercial Banks in Sri Lanka 利益相关者对审计师角色的认知及其对审计期望差距的影响——以斯里兰卡持牌商业银行为例
IF 0.9 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-06-21 DOI: 10.4038/sajf.v2i1.40
S. Prawanth, K. Perera
Purpose: This study was conducted to understand the stakeholder perception on auditors’ role and its impact on audit expectation gap. Design/Methodology/Approach: A sample of 457 shareholders, employees, customers, and auditors from different licensed commercial banks were selected for the study using the convenience sampling method. Information collected through questionnaires was analyzed using descriptive analysis and Mann Whitney U test. Findings: The study revealed an audit expectation gap between auditors and the shareholders; the auditors and customers; and auditors and employees in the areas of audit responsibility, the usefulness of audited financial statements, audit education, and providing non-assurance services. However, this gap was not significant with regard to audit reliability among auditors and employees. Practical Implication: The main reason behind this gap is the lack of proper education and understanding of the audit standards and audit practices. This gap can be reduced by giving adequate knowledge and awareness of audits to the stakeholders and the users of financial statements in general. Limitations: The study considered the stakeholders of licensed commercial banks in Sri Lanka, whereas there are so many other financial institutions registered under the Central bank of Sri Lanka.
目的:本研究旨在了解利益相关者对审计师角色的看法及其对审计期望差距的影响。设计/方法/方法:采用便利抽样法,从不同持牌商业银行选取457名股东、员工、客户和审计师作为研究样本。通过问卷收集的信息采用描述性分析和Mann Whitney U检验进行分析。研究发现:审计师与股东之间存在审计期望差距;审核员和客户;以及审计人员和雇员在审计责任、经审计财务报表的有用性、审计教育和提供非担保服务等方面的工作。然而,在审核员和雇员之间的审计可靠性方面,这一差距并不显著。实践启示:这种差距背后的主要原因是缺乏对审计准则和审计实践的适当教育和理解。这一差距可以通过向利益相关者和财务报表使用者提供审计方面的充分知识和意识来缩小。局限性:该研究考虑了斯里兰卡持牌商业银行的利益相关者,而在斯里兰卡中央银行注册的其他金融机构太多了。
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引用次数: 0
Illicit Financial Flows through Trade Mis-Invoicing in India: An Empirical Analysis of the Major Commodities Involved in Mis-Invoicing 印度贸易虚开发票导致的非法资金流动:对虚开发票主要商品的实证分析
IF 0.9 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-22 DOI: 10.1177/22779787221092272
Praveen Tiwari, J. Akhter, S. Chattopadhyay
This article identifies, based on reported trade data between India and its 19 trading partners, the major commodities exhibiting mis-invoicing during 2000–2018, the extent of mis-invoicing, major trade partners and the associated ports of trade in India. The computed differences in the trade values are too large to be explained by accounting or classification errors, presenting strong evidence of mis-invoicing; however, only a small percentage of commodities account for bulk of mis-invoicing consistently over the years. There is also evidence of the same commodities exhibiting under-invoicing (UI) in trade with some countries and over-invoicing (OI) in trade with others. The tariff rates seem to influence the type of import mis-invoicing—OI being mainly in commodities with higher tariff and UI in commodities with lower tariff. The article contributes to the existing literature by identifying the specific commodities with their 6-digit HS codes, and commodity groups prone to mis-invoicing, which can provide a robust framework for further investigation of transaction level data that may help pinpoint the parties involved in mis-invoicing and associated illicit flows. The findings of the article provide inputs for policies to mitigate the impact of illicit financial flows through trade mis-invoicing. JEL Classifications: F13, F14, C32, H26
本文根据印度与其19个贸易伙伴之间报告的贸易数据,确定了2000-2008年期间出现错误发票的主要商品、错误发票的程度、主要贸易伙伴和印度的相关贸易口岸。贸易价值的计算差异太大,无法用会计或分类错误来解释,这是错误开具发票的有力证据;然而,多年来,只有一小部分商品一直是错误开具发票的主要原因。还有证据表明,同样的商品在与一些国家的贸易中出现了发票不足(UI)和与其他国家的贸易出现了发票过高(OI)。关税税率似乎影响了进口误报的类型——OI主要发生在关税较高的商品中,UI发生在关税较低的商品中。这篇文章通过识别具有6位HS代码的特定商品和容易产生错误发票的商品组,为现有文献做出了贡献,这可以为进一步调查交易层面的数据提供一个强有力的框架,有助于查明错误发票和相关非法流动的相关方。这篇文章的调查结果为通过贸易误报减轻非法资金流动影响的政策提供了投入。JEL分类:F13、F14、C32、H26
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引用次数: 0
The Optimal Magnitude of Government Spending: Evidence from Cambodia 政府支出的最佳规模:来自柬埔寨的证据
IF 0.9 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-22 DOI: 10.1177/22779787221093116
Leanghak Hok, Z. Bartha
Scholars and policymakers have vigorously debated what the impact of government spending on economic growth is. Some current research and theoretical models suggest that the reaction of economic growth to the extension of government spending can be either positive or negative. This article intends to investigate the inverted-U shaped relationship between output growth and government spending (i.e., government fixed capital formation [GFCF] and government final consumption expenditure [GFCE]). Ordinary least squares (OLS) is employed as an approach to annual data for Cambodia obtained from 1971 to 2015. The result reveals that GFCF and GFCE have an inverted-U shaped relation with economic growth and that 5.40% and 7.23% are the optimal values of GFCF and GFCE, respectively. The labour growth rate and export growth rate contribute positively to the growth rate of output. This study indicates that the increasing level of government expenditure reduces the efficacy of government spending, and also helps Cambodia’s policymakers to control fiscal policy more efficiently. JEL Classification: C80, E62, H50, O40
学者和政策制定者一直在激烈争论政府支出对经济增长的影响。目前的一些研究和理论模型表明,经济增长对政府支出扩展的反应可能是积极的,也可能是消极的。本文旨在研究产出增长与政府支出(即政府固定资本形成[GFCF]和政府最终消费支出[GFCE])之间的倒U型关系。采用普通最小二乘法(OLS)对1971年至2015年柬埔寨的年度数据进行处理。结果表明,GFCF和GFCE与经济增长呈倒U型关系,其中5.40%和7.23%是GFCF和GF的最优值。劳动力增长率和出口增长率对产出增长率有积极贡献。这项研究表明,政府支出水平的提高降低了政府支出的效力,也有助于柬埔寨决策者更有效地控制财政政策。JEL分类:C80、E62、H50、O40
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引用次数: 1
期刊
South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance
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