Pub Date : 2018-09-30DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.345
Paras Kharel
Amid a general rise in protectionism and a trade war between the world's two largest economies, this paper analyzes changes in gains from trade for the world over a decade marked by rapid global economic integration preceding the global financial crisis of 2007-08. It employs state-of-the-art quantitative trade models based on the gravity equation to estimate autarky gains from trade, as well as a recently introduced ANOVA-type structural estimation of the gravity equation to obtain trade costs free of residual trade cost bias. Between 1995 and 2006, the cost of moving to autarky increased by about 45% on average. A decomposition exercise suggests most of the increase in autarky gains from trade on average was due to increases in import shares in total spending, with a limited role for reallocations of spending across sectors with varied trade elasticities. Changes in trade costs between 1995 and 2006 are found to have increased autarky gains from trade, as measured in 2006, by up to 100%.
{"title":"Dissecting Gains from Trade: Changes in Welfare Cost of Autarky*","authors":"Paras Kharel","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.345","url":null,"abstract":"Amid a general rise in protectionism and a trade war between the world's two largest economies, this paper analyzes changes in gains from trade for the world over a decade marked by rapid global economic integration preceding the global financial crisis of 2007-08. It employs state-of-the-art quantitative trade models based on the gravity equation to estimate autarky gains from trade, as well as a recently introduced ANOVA-type structural estimation of the gravity equation to obtain trade costs free of residual trade cost bias. Between 1995 and 2006, the cost of moving to autarky increased by about 45% on average. A decomposition exercise suggests most of the increase in autarky gains from trade on average was due to increases in import shares in total spending, with a limited role for reallocations of spending across sectors with varied trade elasticities. Changes in trade costs between 1995 and 2006 are found to have increased autarky gains from trade, as measured in 2006, by up to 100%.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-09-30DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.347
Hyuk-Jae Rhee, Jeongseok Song
This paper discusses the design of monetary policy in a New Keynesian small open economy framework by introducing nominal wage rigidities and incomplete exchange rate pass-through on import prices. Three main findings are summarized. First, with the existence of an incomplete exchange rate pass-through and nominal wage rigidities, the optimal policy is to seek to minimize the output gap, the variance of domestic price and wage inflation, as well as deviations from the law of one price. Second, the CPI inflation targeting Taylor rule is welfare enhancing when there is a technological shock to the economy. The exception occurs when there is a foreign income shock, which minimizes welfare losses under the domestic inflation targeting Taylor rule. Last, two stylized Taylor rules turn out to be a bad approximation, but the modified Taylor rules that respond to the unemployment gap rather than the output gap are a closer approximation to the optimal policy.
{"title":"Exchange Rate Pass-through, Nominal Wage Rigidities, and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy","authors":"Hyuk-Jae Rhee, Jeongseok Song","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.347","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.347","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses the design of monetary policy in a New Keynesian small open economy framework by introducing nominal wage rigidities and incomplete exchange rate pass-through on import prices. Three main findings are summarized. First, with the existence of an incomplete exchange rate pass-through and nominal wage rigidities, the optimal policy is to seek to minimize the output gap, the variance of domestic price and wage inflation, as well as deviations from the law of one price. Second, the CPI inflation targeting Taylor rule is welfare enhancing when there is a technological shock to the economy. The exception occurs when there is a foreign income shock, which minimizes welfare losses under the domestic inflation targeting Taylor rule. Last, two stylized Taylor rules turn out to be a bad approximation, but the modified Taylor rules that respond to the unemployment gap rather than the output gap are a closer approximation to the optimal policy.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-06-30DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.2.340
KeukJe Sung
WTO was established in 1995 and as many as 36 new members joined WTO until December 2017. Thus it would be interesting to see if new members have committed higher or lower levels of market opening compared to the original members. In this regard, a sophisticated scoring scheme is needed to quantify market opening commitments. After proper econometric model is established for the original members, same model can be applied to the new members for comparison. It was found that new members committed a much higher level of commitment than the original members. In addition, it was also found that transition economies committed higher levels than the non-transition economies. More interesting finding is that among the new members, the larger the economies or the larger the trading volume are, the closer was the level of commitment to the predicted level. Then the question is whether this difference was due to benign neglect by the new members or due to malign select by the original members.
{"title":"Benign Neglect or Malign Select?: Entry Cost to GATS/WTO","authors":"KeukJe Sung","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.2.340","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.2.340","url":null,"abstract":"WTO was established in 1995 and as many as 36 new members joined WTO until December 2017. Thus it would be interesting to see if new members have committed higher or lower levels of market opening compared to the original members. In this regard, a sophisticated scoring scheme is needed to quantify market opening commitments. After proper econometric model is established for the original members, same model can be applied to the new members for comparison. It was found that new members committed a much higher level of commitment than the original members. In addition, it was also found that transition economies committed higher levels than the non-transition economies. More interesting finding is that among the new members, the larger the economies or the larger the trading volume are, the closer was the level of commitment to the predicted level. Then the question is whether this difference was due to benign neglect by the new members or due to malign select by the original members.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Comparison Analysis of Monetary Policy Effect Under an Open Economy Model","authors":"Keun Yeong Lee","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.2.341","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.2.341","url":null,"abstract":"The paper analyzes and compares the effects of domestic monetary policy using DSGE, DSGE-VAR, and VAR based on a two-country open economy model of...","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-06-30DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.2.343
Hee-Yul Chai, Sang B. Hahn
This paper tests empirically the causal relationship between bank loans and the monetary base before and after the adoption of inflation targeting in seven Asia-Pacific countries using Toda-Yamamoto Granger non causality test and the bootstrap test for causality. The most striking finding is that the bank loans Granger cause the monetary base during the inflation targeting period in all the countries, except Japan, which was under the influence of the quantitative easing, whereas the causality appeared diverse before the inflation targeting regime. This result implies the need for the policy makers to take the endogenous nature of the money supply into account in the modern economy.
{"title":"Does Monetary Policy Regime Determine the Nature of the Money Supply?: Evidence from Seven Countries in the Asia-Pacific Region","authors":"Hee-Yul Chai, Sang B. Hahn","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.2.343","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.2.343","url":null,"abstract":"This paper tests empirically the causal relationship between bank loans and the monetary base before and after the adoption of inflation targeting in seven Asia-Pacific countries using Toda-Yamamoto Granger non causality test and the bootstrap test for causality. The most striking finding is that the bank loans Granger cause the monetary base during the inflation targeting period in all the countries, except Japan, which was under the influence of the quantitative easing, whereas the causality appeared diverse before the inflation targeting regime. This result implies the need for the policy makers to take the endogenous nature of the money supply into account in the modern economy.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-06-01DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.2.342
Xianbai Ji, P. Rana, Wai-mun Chia, Changtai Li
Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his “America First” trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct “preference ordering” for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a “multi-track, multi-stage” approach to trade policy.
{"title":"Post-TPP Trade Policy Options for ASEAN and its Dialogue Partners: “Preference Ordering” Using CGE Analysis","authors":"Xianbai Ji, P. Rana, Wai-mun Chia, Changtai Li","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.2.342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.2.342","url":null,"abstract":"Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his “America First” trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct “preference ordering” for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a “multi-track, multi-stage” approach to trade policy.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43325951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-03-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.1.339
Honggue Lee
A two-part model is estimated to see if increasing returns and comparative advantage are empirically equivalent in explaining intra-industry trade. The model has separate mechanisms for determining the occurrence and the extent of intra-industry trade. Estimation is based on an augmented Grubel-Lloyd index derived from the data set on SITC 7 goods at the 3-digit SITC (Revision 4) for country pairs in which Korea is fixed as a source country. Estimation results show that both increasing returns and comparative advantage can explain the occurrence and the extent of intra-industry trade.
{"title":"Equivalence between Increasing Returns and Comparative Advantage as the Determinants of Intra-industry Trade: An Industry Analysis for Korea","authors":"Honggue Lee","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.1.339","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.1.339","url":null,"abstract":"A two-part model is estimated to see if increasing returns and comparative advantage are empirically equivalent in explaining intra-industry trade. The model has separate mechanisms for determining the occurrence and the extent of intra-industry trade. Estimation is based on an augmented Grubel-Lloyd index derived from the data set on SITC 7 goods at the 3-digit SITC (Revision 4) for country pairs in which Korea is fixed as a source country. Estimation results show that both increasing returns and comparative advantage can explain the occurrence and the extent of intra-industry trade.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-03-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.1.337
Seojin Lee
Using the indicators of economic policy uncertainty developed by Baker et al. (2016), this paper investigates the effects of the US economic policy uncertainty on the Korea economic uncertainty as well as Korea-US foreign exchange risk. The key findings are that: (i) the degree of spillovers of policy uncertainty from the US to Korea is considerable but not comparatively high; (ii) the US policy uncertainty plays a stronger and more consistent role in Korean currency risk than Korea policy uncertainty and other macro variables. It implies that the economic policy uncertainty in the US is an important contributor to Korea-US exchange rates.
{"title":"Economic Policy Uncertainty in the US: Does It Matter for Korea?","authors":"Seojin Lee","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.1.337","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.1.337","url":null,"abstract":"Using the indicators of economic policy uncertainty developed by Baker et al. (2016), this paper investigates the effects of the US economic policy uncertainty on the Korea economic uncertainty as well as Korea-US foreign exchange risk. The key findings are that: (i) the degree of spillovers of policy uncertainty from the US to Korea is considerable but not comparatively high; (ii) the US policy uncertainty plays a stronger and more consistent role in Korean currency risk than Korea policy uncertainty and other macro variables. It implies that the economic policy uncertainty in the US is an important contributor to Korea-US exchange rates.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-03-01DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.1.336
B. Hoekman, S. Inama
This article discusses the deadlock in the WTO on multilateral harmonization of non-preferential rules of origin (RoO) and reviews some of the RoO...
本文讨论了WTO在非优惠原产地规则多边协调问题上的僵局，并回顾了一些非优惠原产地原则。。。
{"title":"Harmonization of Rules of Origin : An Agenda for Plurilateral Cooperation?","authors":"B. Hoekman, S. Inama","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.1.336","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.1.336","url":null,"abstract":"This article discusses the deadlock in the WTO on multilateral harmonization of non-preferential rules of origin (RoO) and reviews some of the RoO...","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49071343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-12-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.332
Sujin Jang, E. Young Song
This paper derives the gravity equation with intermediate goods trade. We extend a standard monopolistic competition model to incorporate intermediate goods trade, and show that the gravity equation with intermediates trade is identical to the one without it except in that gross output should be used as the output measure instead of value added. We also show that the output elasticity of trade is significantly underestimated when value added is used as the output measure. This implies that with the conventional gravity equation, the contribution of output growth can be substantially underestimated and the role of trade costs reduction can be exaggerated in explaining trade expansion, as we demonstrate for the case of Korea's trade growth between 1995 and 2007.
{"title":"Gravity with Intermediate Goods Trade","authors":"Sujin Jang, E. Young Song","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.332","url":null,"abstract":"This paper derives the gravity equation with intermediate goods trade. We extend a standard monopolistic competition model to incorporate intermediate goods trade, and show that the gravity equation with intermediates trade is identical to the one without it except in that gross output should be used as the output measure instead of value added. We also show that the output elasticity of trade is significantly underestimated when value added is used as the output measure. This implies that with the conventional gravity equation, the contribution of output growth can be substantially underestimated and the role of trade costs reduction can be exaggerated in explaining trade expansion, as we demonstrate for the case of Korea's trade growth between 1995 and 2007.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2017-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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