Pub Date : 2018-06-30DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.2.343
Hee-Yul Chai, Sang B. Hahn
This paper tests empirically the causal relationship between bank loans and the monetary base before and after the adoption of inflation targeting in seven Asia-Pacific countries using Toda-Yamamoto Granger non causality test and the bootstrap test for causality. The most striking finding is that the bank loans Granger cause the monetary base during the inflation targeting period in all the countries, except Japan, which was under the influence of the quantitative easing, whereas the causality appeared diverse before the inflation targeting regime. This result implies the need for the policy makers to take the endogenous nature of the money supply into account in the modern economy.
{"title":"Does Monetary Policy Regime Determine the Nature of the Money Supply?: Evidence from Seven Countries in the Asia-Pacific Region","authors":"Hee-Yul Chai, Sang B. Hahn","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.2.343","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.2.343","url":null,"abstract":"This paper tests empirically the causal relationship between bank loans and the monetary base before and after the adoption of inflation targeting in seven Asia-Pacific countries using Toda-Yamamoto Granger non causality test and the bootstrap test for causality. The most striking finding is that the bank loans Granger cause the monetary base during the inflation targeting period in all the countries, except Japan, which was under the influence of the quantitative easing, whereas the causality appeared diverse before the inflation targeting regime. This result implies the need for the policy makers to take the endogenous nature of the money supply into account in the modern economy.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"12 2‐3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-06-01DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.2.342
Xianbai Ji, P. Rana, Wai-mun Chia, Changtai Li
Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his “America First” trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct “preference ordering” for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a “multi-track, multi-stage” approach to trade policy.
{"title":"Post-TPP Trade Policy Options for ASEAN and its Dialogue Partners: “Preference Ordering” Using CGE Analysis","authors":"Xianbai Ji, P. Rana, Wai-mun Chia, Changtai Li","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.2.342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.2.342","url":null,"abstract":"Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his “America First” trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct “preference ordering” for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a “multi-track, multi-stage” approach to trade policy.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43325951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-03-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.1.339
Honggue Lee
A two-part model is estimated to see if increasing returns and comparative advantage are empirically equivalent in explaining intra-industry trade. The model has separate mechanisms for determining the occurrence and the extent of intra-industry trade. Estimation is based on an augmented Grubel-Lloyd index derived from the data set on SITC 7 goods at the 3-digit SITC (Revision 4) for country pairs in which Korea is fixed as a source country. Estimation results show that both increasing returns and comparative advantage can explain the occurrence and the extent of intra-industry trade.
{"title":"Equivalence between Increasing Returns and Comparative Advantage as the Determinants of Intra-industry Trade: An Industry Analysis for Korea","authors":"Honggue Lee","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.1.339","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.1.339","url":null,"abstract":"A two-part model is estimated to see if increasing returns and comparative advantage are empirically equivalent in explaining intra-industry trade. The model has separate mechanisms for determining the occurrence and the extent of intra-industry trade. Estimation is based on an augmented Grubel-Lloyd index derived from the data set on SITC 7 goods at the 3-digit SITC (Revision 4) for country pairs in which Korea is fixed as a source country. Estimation results show that both increasing returns and comparative advantage can explain the occurrence and the extent of intra-industry trade.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-03-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.1.337
Seojin Lee
Using the indicators of economic policy uncertainty developed by Baker et al. (2016), this paper investigates the effects of the US economic policy uncertainty on the Korea economic uncertainty as well as Korea-US foreign exchange risk. The key findings are that: (i) the degree of spillovers of policy uncertainty from the US to Korea is considerable but not comparatively high; (ii) the US policy uncertainty plays a stronger and more consistent role in Korean currency risk than Korea policy uncertainty and other macro variables. It implies that the economic policy uncertainty in the US is an important contributor to Korea-US exchange rates.
{"title":"Economic Policy Uncertainty in the US: Does It Matter for Korea?","authors":"Seojin Lee","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.1.337","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.1.337","url":null,"abstract":"Using the indicators of economic policy uncertainty developed by Baker et al. (2016), this paper investigates the effects of the US economic policy uncertainty on the Korea economic uncertainty as well as Korea-US foreign exchange risk. The key findings are that: (i) the degree of spillovers of policy uncertainty from the US to Korea is considerable but not comparatively high; (ii) the US policy uncertainty plays a stronger and more consistent role in Korean currency risk than Korea policy uncertainty and other macro variables. It implies that the economic policy uncertainty in the US is an important contributor to Korea-US exchange rates.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"13 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-03-01DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.1.336
B. Hoekman, S. Inama
This article discusses the deadlock in the WTO on multilateral harmonization of non-preferential rules of origin (RoO) and reviews some of the RoO...
本文讨论了WTO在非优惠原产地规则多边协调问题上的僵局，并回顾了一些非优惠原产地原则。。。
{"title":"Harmonization of Rules of Origin : An Agenda for Plurilateral Cooperation?","authors":"B. Hoekman, S. Inama","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.1.336","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.1.336","url":null,"abstract":"This article discusses the deadlock in the WTO on multilateral harmonization of non-preferential rules of origin (RoO) and reviews some of the RoO...","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"22 1","pages":"3-28"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49071343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-12-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.332
Sujin Jang, E. Young Song
This paper derives the gravity equation with intermediate goods trade. We extend a standard monopolistic competition model to incorporate intermediate goods trade, and show that the gravity equation with intermediates trade is identical to the one without it except in that gross output should be used as the output measure instead of value added. We also show that the output elasticity of trade is significantly underestimated when value added is used as the output measure. This implies that with the conventional gravity equation, the contribution of output growth can be substantially underestimated and the role of trade costs reduction can be exaggerated in explaining trade expansion, as we demonstrate for the case of Korea's trade growth between 1995 and 2007.
{"title":"Gravity with Intermediate Goods Trade","authors":"Sujin Jang, E. Young Song","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.332","url":null,"abstract":"This paper derives the gravity equation with intermediate goods trade. We extend a standard monopolistic competition model to incorporate intermediate goods trade, and show that the gravity equation with intermediates trade is identical to the one without it except in that gross output should be used as the output measure instead of value added. We also show that the output elasticity of trade is significantly underestimated when value added is used as the output measure. This implies that with the conventional gravity equation, the contribution of output growth can be substantially underestimated and the role of trade costs reduction can be exaggerated in explaining trade expansion, as we demonstrate for the case of Korea's trade growth between 1995 and 2007.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"350 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2017-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-12-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.334
Dan Ciuriak, Jingliang Xiao, Ali Dadkhah
We assess the outcomes for the negotiating parties in the Trans-Pacific Partnership if the remaining eleven parties go ahead with the agreement as negotiated without the United States, as compared to the outcomes under the original twelve-member agreement signed in October 2016. We find that the eleven-party agreement, now renamed as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), is a much smaller deal than the twelve-party one, but that some parties do better without the United States in the deal, in particular those in the Western Hemisphere-Canada, Mexico, Chile, and Peru. For the politically relevant medium term, the United States stands to be less well-off outside the TPP than inside. Since provisional deals can be in place for a long time, the results of this study suggest that the eleven parties are better off to implement the CPTPP, leaving aside the controversial governance elements, the implications of which for national interests are unclear and which, in any event, may be substantially affected by parallel bilateral negotiations between individual CPTPP parties and the United States.
{"title":"Quantifying the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership","authors":"Dan Ciuriak, Jingliang Xiao, Ali Dadkhah","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.334","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.334","url":null,"abstract":"We assess the outcomes for the negotiating parties in the Trans-Pacific Partnership if the remaining eleven parties go ahead with the agreement as negotiated without the United States, as compared to the outcomes under the original twelve-member agreement signed in October 2016. We find that the eleven-party agreement, now renamed as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), is a much smaller deal than the twelve-party one, but that some parties do better without the United States in the deal, in particular those in the Western Hemisphere-Canada, Mexico, Chile, and Peru. For the politically relevant medium term, the United States stands to be less well-off outside the TPP than inside. Since provisional deals can be in place for a long time, the results of this study suggest that the eleven parties are better off to implement the CPTPP, leaving aside the controversial governance elements, the implications of which for national interests are unclear and which, in any event, may be substantially affected by parallel bilateral negotiations between individual CPTPP parties and the United States.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2017-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-12-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.333
Eiji Ogawa, Makoto Muto
The US dollar has kept as a position of key currency in the global economy in the changing international monetary system where the euro was introduced to some states of the EU in 1999. It is an evidence of inertia of the US dollar as a key currency. Our previous study (Ogawa and Muto, 2017b) conducted empirical analysis to investigate effects of several events on inertia of the US dollar. One of our findings was that the introduction of the euro increased utility of euro while utility of US dollar was kept unchanged. This paper examines the effects of the global financial crisis and the euro zone crisis as well as the introduction of the euro on the utility of the Japanese yen. The introduction of the euro significantly decreased the utility of the Japanese yen. It indicates that the introduction of the euro increased the utility of the euro while reducing the utility of the Japanese yen rather than the utility of the US dollar. The utility of the Japanese yen has significantly decreased while the global financial crisis and the euro zone crisis occurred. The Japanese yen has a declining trend in terms of its utility over time in the changing international monetary system.
{"title":"Declining Japanese Yen in the Changing International Monetary System","authors":"Eiji Ogawa, Makoto Muto","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.333","url":null,"abstract":"The US dollar has kept as a position of key currency in the global economy in the changing international monetary system where the euro was introduced to some states of the EU in 1999. It is an evidence of inertia of the US dollar as a key currency. Our previous study (Ogawa and Muto, 2017b) conducted empirical analysis to investigate effects of several events on inertia of the US dollar. One of our findings was that the introduction of the euro increased utility of euro while utility of US dollar was kept unchanged. This paper examines the effects of the global financial crisis and the euro zone crisis as well as the introduction of the euro on the utility of the Japanese yen. The introduction of the euro significantly decreased the utility of the Japanese yen. It indicates that the introduction of the euro increased the utility of the euro while reducing the utility of the Japanese yen rather than the utility of the US dollar. The utility of the Japanese yen has significantly decreased while the global financial crisis and the euro zone crisis occurred. The Japanese yen has a declining trend in terms of its utility over time in the changing international monetary system.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"14 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2017-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-09-30DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.3.329
Eu Joon Chang, Young Se Kim
This paper studies the long-run behavior of relative price dispersion among cities in Korea with a special emphasis on heterogeneous transitional patterns of price level dynamics. Formal statistical tests indicate considerable evidence for rejecting the null of relative price level convergence among the majority of cities over the sample period of 1985-2015. The analysis of gravity model suggests that the effect of transportation costs on intercity price level differentials is limited, while other socioeconomic factors, such as income, input factor prices, demographic structure, and housing price growth, play key roles in accounting for persistent regional price level disparities. Individual price levels are found to be better explained by a multiple-component model, and the deviations from PPP may be attributed to distinct stochastic common trends that are characterized by income and demographic structure.
{"title":"Regional Relative Price Disparities and Their Driving Forces","authors":"Eu Joon Chang, Young Se Kim","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.3.329","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.3.329","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the long-run behavior of relative price dispersion among cities in Korea with a special emphasis on heterogeneous transitional patterns of price level dynamics. Formal statistical tests indicate considerable evidence for rejecting the null of relative price level convergence among the majority of cities over the sample period of 1985-2015. The analysis of gravity model suggests that the effect of transportation costs on intercity price level differentials is limited, while other socioeconomic factors, such as income, input factor prices, demographic structure, and housing price growth, play key roles in accounting for persistent regional price level disparities. Individual price levels are found to be better explained by a multiple-component model, and the deviations from PPP may be attributed to distinct stochastic common trends that are characterized by income and demographic structure.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"96 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2017-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-09-01DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2017.21.3.330
Mikyung Yun
The particular market situation provision of the WTO Antidumping Agreement is increasingly invoked against what may be described as "input-dumping," but this potentially violates the current Antidumping Agreement rules. This paper examines the practice and recent changes regarding the PMS provision in the US by critically examining relevant antidumping investigations in the US in light of GATT/WTO jurisprudence. Such US practice has not yet been extensively subjected to scholarly examination. The paper finds that the recent legal change in the US widens the scope and applicability of the PMS provision to cover input subsidies, allowing the use of not only surrogate prices but also surrogate costs. Further, the required standard of evidence to find PMS seems to have been diminished in the recent application. A widespread use of the PMS provision in such a deviant way calls for a fundamental review of the current trade remedy rules of the WTO.
{"title":"The Use of \"Particular Market Situation\" Provision and its Implications for Regulation of Antidumping","authors":"Mikyung Yun","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2017.21.3.330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2017.21.3.330","url":null,"abstract":"The particular market situation provision of the WTO Antidumping Agreement is increasingly invoked against what may be described as \"input-dumping,\" but this potentially violates the current Antidumping Agreement rules. This paper examines the practice and recent changes regarding the PMS provision in the US by critically examining relevant antidumping investigations in the US in light of GATT/WTO jurisprudence. Such US practice has not yet been extensively subjected to scholarly examination. The paper finds that the recent legal change in the US widens the scope and applicability of the PMS provision to cover input subsidies, allowing the use of not only surrogate prices but also surrogate costs. Further, the required standard of evidence to find PMS seems to have been diminished in the recent application. A widespread use of the PMS provision in such a deviant way calls for a fundamental review of the current trade remedy rules of the WTO.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"21 1","pages":"231-257"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2017-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43942784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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