Pub Date : 2017-12-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.334
Dan Ciuriak, Jingliang Xiao, Ali Dadkhah
We assess the outcomes for the negotiating parties in the Trans-Pacific Partnership if the remaining eleven parties go ahead with the agreement as negotiated without the United States, as compared to the outcomes under the original twelve-member agreement signed in October 2016. We find that the eleven-party agreement, now renamed as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), is a much smaller deal than the twelve-party one, but that some parties do better without the United States in the deal, in particular those in the Western Hemisphere-Canada, Mexico, Chile, and Peru. For the politically relevant medium term, the United States stands to be less well-off outside the TPP than inside. Since provisional deals can be in place for a long time, the results of this study suggest that the eleven parties are better off to implement the CPTPP, leaving aside the controversial governance elements, the implications of which for national interests are unclear and which, in any event, may be substantially affected by parallel bilateral negotiations between individual CPTPP parties and the United States.
{"title":"Quantifying the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership","authors":"Dan Ciuriak, Jingliang Xiao, Ali Dadkhah","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.334","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.334","url":null,"abstract":"We assess the outcomes for the negotiating parties in the Trans-Pacific Partnership if the remaining eleven parties go ahead with the agreement as negotiated without the United States, as compared to the outcomes under the original twelve-member agreement signed in October 2016. We find that the eleven-party agreement, now renamed as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), is a much smaller deal than the twelve-party one, but that some parties do better without the United States in the deal, in particular those in the Western Hemisphere-Canada, Mexico, Chile, and Peru. For the politically relevant medium term, the United States stands to be less well-off outside the TPP than inside. Since provisional deals can be in place for a long time, the results of this study suggest that the eleven parties are better off to implement the CPTPP, leaving aside the controversial governance elements, the implications of which for national interests are unclear and which, in any event, may be substantially affected by parallel bilateral negotiations between individual CPTPP parties and the United States.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2017-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-12-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.333
Eiji Ogawa, Makoto Muto
The US dollar has kept as a position of key currency in the global economy in the changing international monetary system where the euro was introduced to some states of the EU in 1999. It is an evidence of inertia of the US dollar as a key currency. Our previous study (Ogawa and Muto, 2017b) conducted empirical analysis to investigate effects of several events on inertia of the US dollar. One of our findings was that the introduction of the euro increased utility of euro while utility of US dollar was kept unchanged. This paper examines the effects of the global financial crisis and the euro zone crisis as well as the introduction of the euro on the utility of the Japanese yen. The introduction of the euro significantly decreased the utility of the Japanese yen. It indicates that the introduction of the euro increased the utility of the euro while reducing the utility of the Japanese yen rather than the utility of the US dollar. The utility of the Japanese yen has significantly decreased while the global financial crisis and the euro zone crisis occurred. The Japanese yen has a declining trend in terms of its utility over time in the changing international monetary system.
{"title":"Declining Japanese Yen in the Changing International Monetary System","authors":"Eiji Ogawa, Makoto Muto","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.4.333","url":null,"abstract":"The US dollar has kept as a position of key currency in the global economy in the changing international monetary system where the euro was introduced to some states of the EU in 1999. It is an evidence of inertia of the US dollar as a key currency. Our previous study (Ogawa and Muto, 2017b) conducted empirical analysis to investigate effects of several events on inertia of the US dollar. One of our findings was that the introduction of the euro increased utility of euro while utility of US dollar was kept unchanged. This paper examines the effects of the global financial crisis and the euro zone crisis as well as the introduction of the euro on the utility of the Japanese yen. The introduction of the euro significantly decreased the utility of the Japanese yen. It indicates that the introduction of the euro increased the utility of the euro while reducing the utility of the Japanese yen rather than the utility of the US dollar. The utility of the Japanese yen has significantly decreased while the global financial crisis and the euro zone crisis occurred. The Japanese yen has a declining trend in terms of its utility over time in the changing international monetary system.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2017-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-09-30DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.3.329
Eu Joon Chang, Young Se Kim
This paper studies the long-run behavior of relative price dispersion among cities in Korea with a special emphasis on heterogeneous transitional patterns of price level dynamics. Formal statistical tests indicate considerable evidence for rejecting the null of relative price level convergence among the majority of cities over the sample period of 1985-2015. The analysis of gravity model suggests that the effect of transportation costs on intercity price level differentials is limited, while other socioeconomic factors, such as income, input factor prices, demographic structure, and housing price growth, play key roles in accounting for persistent regional price level disparities. Individual price levels are found to be better explained by a multiple-component model, and the deviations from PPP may be attributed to distinct stochastic common trends that are characterized by income and demographic structure.
{"title":"Regional Relative Price Disparities and Their Driving Forces","authors":"Eu Joon Chang, Young Se Kim","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.3.329","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2017.21.3.329","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the long-run behavior of relative price dispersion among cities in Korea with a special emphasis on heterogeneous transitional patterns of price level dynamics. Formal statistical tests indicate considerable evidence for rejecting the null of relative price level convergence among the majority of cities over the sample period of 1985-2015. The analysis of gravity model suggests that the effect of transportation costs on intercity price level differentials is limited, while other socioeconomic factors, such as income, input factor prices, demographic structure, and housing price growth, play key roles in accounting for persistent regional price level disparities. Individual price levels are found to be better explained by a multiple-component model, and the deviations from PPP may be attributed to distinct stochastic common trends that are characterized by income and demographic structure.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2017-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-09-01DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2017.21.3.330
Mikyung Yun
The particular market situation provision of the WTO Antidumping Agreement is increasingly invoked against what may be described as "input-dumping," but this potentially violates the current Antidumping Agreement rules. This paper examines the practice and recent changes regarding the PMS provision in the US by critically examining relevant antidumping investigations in the US in light of GATT/WTO jurisprudence. Such US practice has not yet been extensively subjected to scholarly examination. The paper finds that the recent legal change in the US widens the scope and applicability of the PMS provision to cover input subsidies, allowing the use of not only surrogate prices but also surrogate costs. Further, the required standard of evidence to find PMS seems to have been diminished in the recent application. A widespread use of the PMS provision in such a deviant way calls for a fundamental review of the current trade remedy rules of the WTO.
{"title":"The Use of \"Particular Market Situation\" Provision and its Implications for Regulation of Antidumping","authors":"Mikyung Yun","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2017.21.3.330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2017.21.3.330","url":null,"abstract":"The particular market situation provision of the WTO Antidumping Agreement is increasingly invoked against what may be described as \"input-dumping,\" but this potentially violates the current Antidumping Agreement rules. This paper examines the practice and recent changes regarding the PMS provision in the US by critically examining relevant antidumping investigations in the US in light of GATT/WTO jurisprudence. Such US practice has not yet been extensively subjected to scholarly examination. The paper finds that the recent legal change in the US widens the scope and applicability of the PMS provision to cover input subsidies, allowing the use of not only surrogate prices but also surrogate costs. Further, the required standard of evidence to find PMS seems to have been diminished in the recent application. A widespread use of the PMS provision in such a deviant way calls for a fundamental review of the current trade remedy rules of the WTO.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2017-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43942784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-09-30DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.314
Y. Han
This paper quantitatively compares the intrinsic features of the daily USD-GBP exchange rates in two different periods, the 1920s and the 2010s, under the same freely floating exchange rate system. Even though the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be much less organized and developed than in the 2010s, this paper finds that both the long memory volatility property and the structural break appear to be the common intrigue features of the exchange rates in the two periods by using the FIGARCH model. In particular, the long memory volatility properties in the two periods are found to be upward biased and overstated because of the structural breaks in the exchange markets. Thus this paper applies the Adaptive-FIGARCH model to consider the long memory volatility property and the structural breaks jointly. The main finding is that the structural breaks in the exchange markets affect the long memory volatility property significantly in the two periods but the degree of the long memory volatility property in the 1920s is reduced more remarkably than in the 2010s after the structural breaks are accounted for; thus implying that the structural breaks in the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be more significant.
{"title":"Quantitative Comparisons on the Intrinsic Features of Foreign Exchange Rates between the 1920s and the 2010s: Case of the USD-GBP Exchange Rate *","authors":"Y. Han","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.314","url":null,"abstract":"This paper quantitatively compares the intrinsic features of the daily USD-GBP exchange rates in two different periods, the 1920s and the 2010s, under the same freely floating exchange rate system. Even though the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be much less organized and developed than in the 2010s, this paper finds that both the long memory volatility property and the structural break appear to be the common intrigue features of the exchange rates in the two periods by using the FIGARCH model. In particular, the long memory volatility properties in the two periods are found to be upward biased and overstated because of the structural breaks in the exchange markets. Thus this paper applies the Adaptive-FIGARCH model to consider the long memory volatility property and the structural breaks jointly. The main finding is that the structural breaks in the exchange markets affect the long memory volatility property significantly in the two periods but the degree of the long memory volatility property in the 1920s is reduced more remarkably than in the 2010s after the structural breaks are accounted for; thus implying that the structural breaks in the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be more significant.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2016-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64805040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-09-30DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.315
Jong-hee Kim
By examining the relationship between private credit growth and the possibility of credit risk while focusing on international capital in 21 countries...
以21个国家的国际资本为研究对象，考察了私人信贷增长与信贷风险可能性之间的关系。
{"title":"Study on the Impact of the Private Credit Excess on the Credit Risk under the Massive Capital Inflows Risk under the Massive Capital Inflows","authors":"Jong-hee Kim","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.3.315","url":null,"abstract":"By examining the relationship between private credit growth and the possibility of credit risk while focusing on international capital in 21 countries...","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2016-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64805109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-03-30DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2016.20.1.304
Lian Liu
This research intends to investigate the progress made in East Asian bond market integration thus far. Price-based measures (AAD indicator and beta-convergence measure), quantity-based measures and econometric techniques (co-integration test, error correction model based Granger causality test) are employed in the analysis. Even though East Asian government bond markets have become more integrated since 2001, the differentials among the markets still remain significantly high. The bond market integration process seems slow. The convergence of bond markets sped up in 2003 and after the 2008 world financial crisis, implying the important role of government policies in integrating the regional bond markets. East Asian bond market integration may need more government-directed measures.
{"title":"The Empirical Evidence on Government Bond Market Integration in East Asia","authors":"Lian Liu","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2016.20.1.304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2016.20.1.304","url":null,"abstract":"This research intends to investigate the progress made in East Asian bond market integration thus far. Price-based measures (AAD indicator and beta-convergence measure), quantity-based measures and econometric techniques (co-integration test, error correction model based Granger causality test) are employed in the analysis. Even though East Asian government bond markets have become more integrated since 2001, the differentials among the markets still remain significantly high. The bond market integration process seems slow. The convergence of bond markets sped up in 2003 and after the 2008 world financial crisis, implying the important role of government policies in integrating the regional bond markets. East Asian bond market integration may need more government-directed measures.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2016-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64812966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-09-30DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2015.19.3.299
I. Taly, Chungyu Park
The key objective of this study is to investigate the return and volatility spillover effects among stock market, credit default swap (CDS) market and foreign exchange market for three countries: Korea, the US and Japan. Using the trivariate VAR BEKK GARCH (1,1) model, the study finds that there are significant return and volatility spillover effects between the Korean CDS market and the Korean stock market. In addition, the return spillover effects from foreign exchange markets and the US stock market to the Korean stock market, and the volatility spillover effect from the Japanese stock market to the Korean stock market are both significant.
{"title":"Study on Return and Volatility Spillover Effects Among Stock, CDS, and Foreign Exchange Markets in Korea","authors":"I. Taly, Chungyu Park","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2015.19.3.299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2015.19.3.299","url":null,"abstract":"The key objective of this study is to investigate the return and volatility spillover effects among stock market, credit default swap (CDS) market and foreign exchange market for three countries: Korea, the US and Japan. Using the trivariate VAR BEKK GARCH (1,1) model, the study finds that there are significant return and volatility spillover effects between the Korean CDS market and the Korean stock market. In addition, the return spillover effects from foreign exchange markets and the US stock market to the Korean stock market, and the volatility spillover effect from the Japanese stock market to the Korean stock market are both significant.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2015-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64812925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2014-12-30DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2014.18.4.286
Samet Günay
In this study, we examined the fractal structure of the Nikkei225, HangSeng, Shanghai Stock Exchange and Straits Times Index of Singapore. Empirical analysis was performed via non-parametric, semi-parametric long memory tests and also fractal dimension calculations. In order to avoid spurious long memory features, besides the Detrended Fluctuations Analysis (DFA), we also used Smith's (2005) modified GPH method. As for fractal dimension calculations, they were conducted via Box-Counting and Variation tests. According to the results, while there is no long memory property in log returns of any index, we found evidence for long memory properties in the volatility of the HangSeng, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Straits Times Index. However, we could not find any sign of long memory in the volatility of Nikkei225 index using either the DFA or modified GPH test. Fractal dimension analysis also demonstrated that all raw index prices have fractal structure properties except for the Nikkei225 index. These findings showed that the Nikkei225 index has the most efficient market properties among these markets.
{"title":"Fractal Structure of the Stock Markets of Leading Asian Countries","authors":"Samet Günay","doi":"10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2014.18.4.286","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2014.18.4.286","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we examined the fractal structure of the Nikkei225, HangSeng, Shanghai Stock Exchange and Straits Times Index of Singapore. Empirical analysis was performed via non-parametric, semi-parametric long memory tests and also fractal dimension calculations. In order to avoid spurious long memory features, besides the Detrended Fluctuations Analysis (DFA), we also used Smith's (2005) modified GPH method. As for fractal dimension calculations, they were conducted via Box-Counting and Variation tests. According to the results, while there is no long memory property in log returns of any index, we found evidence for long memory properties in the volatility of the HangSeng, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Straits Times Index. However, we could not find any sign of long memory in the volatility of Nikkei225 index using either the DFA or modified GPH test. Fractal dimension analysis also demonstrated that all raw index prices have fractal structure properties except for the Nikkei225 index. These findings showed that the Nikkei225 index has the most efficient market properties among these markets.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2014-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64812839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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