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Optimizing Community Supervision Practices with the Elo-rating System: A Proof-of-Concept 以Elo-rating系统优化社区监督实践:概念验证
IF 2.1 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2022.2052343
Shahin Tasharrofi, J. C. Barnes
Abstract Record numbers of offenders are being released to community supervision. This poses a challenge to agencies and officers in charge of providing supervision because there are far more clients in need of supervision than officers can reasonably attend to. This challenge represents an opportunity for criminologists to work with agencies to find innovative ways to allocate their limited resources. Standardized risk assessments are the most commonly used tool for determining which clients receive the most resources (e.g., officer attention). But risk assessment is a static instrument that is incapable of making cross-client predictions. We offer a novel, dynamic approach by integrating the Elo-rating system into the risk assessment paradigm. Our study is meant to present a potential innovative solution and to demonstrate that it may have merit when applied in practice. We test our idea against data from the Pathways to Desistance Study and show that the Elo-rating system is a flexible tool that can be used to adjust to changes in risk more rapidly than standard risk assessment tools. We also show that the Elo-rating system, when combined with risk assessment, can increase the accuracy of prospective predictions of recidivism risk. We discuss how Elo-rating system could be used by community supervision agencies seeking to optimize decision-making.
被释放到社区监管的罪犯数量创下历史新高。这对负责提供监管的机构和官员构成了挑战,因为需要监管的客户远远超出了官员的合理照顾范围。这一挑战为犯罪学家提供了一个机会,可以与各机构合作,寻找创新的方式来分配其有限的资源。标准化风险评估是确定哪些客户获得最多资源(例如,官员关注)的最常用工具。但风险评估是一种静态工具,无法做出跨客户的预测。我们通过将elo评级系统集成到风险评估范式中,提供了一种新颖的动态方法。我们的研究旨在提出一种潜在的创新解决方案,并证明它在实践中应用时可能具有优点。我们用“阻力路径研究”的数据测试了我们的想法,结果表明,与标准风险评估工具相比,elo评级系统是一种灵活的工具,可以用来更快地适应风险变化。我们还表明,当与风险评估相结合时,elo评级系统可以提高再犯风险预期预测的准确性。我们讨论了社区监督机构如何使用elo评级系统来寻求优化决策。
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引用次数: 0
Accepting the Challenge: Understanding Police Officers’ Perceptions of a Community-Based, Youth Empowerment Program 接受挑战:了解警察对以社区为基础的青年赋权计划的看法
IF 2.1 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-03-28 DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2022.2052344
Kathleen E. Padilla, Kelsey E. Tom, Adam D. Fine
Abstract Some communities are choosing to implement programs that enable police and youth to engage with each other within voluntary and non-enforcement-related contexts, yet little is known about the impacts of such programs on officers. As part of a larger program evaluation, this study examines police officers’ perceptions of participating in a community-based, youth empowerment program. In-depth interviews were conducted with eighteen police officers who participated in the Team Kids Challenge, a structured, voluntary, and community-driven program designed to empower youth to engage in community service in ways they find meaningful, while also exposing youth to working with police officers in a prosocial, non-enforcement context. Resoundingly, officers noted the (1) positive impact the program had on their opportunities to engage in prosocial interactions with youth, (2) improved relationships with children, and (3) an overall positive experience participating in the program. The paper draws implications for how agencies can work to improve their relationships with their communities when the communities so choose.
一些社区正在选择实施一些项目,使警察和年轻人能够在自愿和非执法的情况下相互接触,但人们对这些项目对警察的影响知之甚少。作为一个更大的项目评估的一部分,本研究考察了警察对参与社区青年赋权项目的看法。深入采访了18名参加团队儿童挑战的警察,这是一个有组织的、自愿的、社区驱动的项目,旨在授权年轻人以他们认为有意义的方式参与社区服务,同时也让年轻人在亲社会、非执法的背景下与警察一起工作。令人震惊的是,官员们注意到(1)该计划对他们与青少年进行亲社会互动的机会产生了积极影响,(2)改善了与儿童的关系,(3)参与该计划的总体积极体验。当社区选择改善与社区的关系时,该论文为机构如何改善与社区的关系提供了启示。
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引用次数: 3
Translating Theory into Practice: Evaluating a Prevention Program for LGBTQ+ Youth and Young Adults 将理论转化为实践:评估LGBTQ+青年和年轻人的预防计划
IF 2.1 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-03-03 DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2022.2039560
Krystal Roig-Palmer
Abstract Currently, sexual and gender minority youth live in a heteronormative society that does not provide consistent access to preventative social support services or safe spaces essential for healthy adolescent developmental experiences. This contextual circumstance is a catalyst for having unrecognized preventative risks and needs that are comprehensive to sexual and gender minority youth which further increases the likelihood for this distinct population to become justice involved. This study took place with the Lambert House: LGBTQ+ Youth Community Center, the only social service agency in Seattle, WA dedicated exclusively to LGBTQ+ youth and young adults. Data analyzed for this qualitative study includes: review of program documents, field observation notes, and semi-structured interviews. The aim of the study was to: 1) develop an innovative theoretical and methodological strategy to assess fluid programs and their potential to be effective, 2) determine what program theory is driving the program structure and content based on the program stakeholders and participants points of view, and 3) assess how well the final blueprint of the local program theory model aligns with principles of evidence-based practice.
目前,性少数和性别少数青少年生活在一个异性恋的社会中,没有提供一致的预防性社会支持服务或安全空间,这对健康的青少年发展经历至关重要。这种背景环境是一种催化剂,导致性和性别少数群体青年普遍存在未被认识到的预防性风险和需求,从而进一步增加了这一独特人群参与司法的可能性。这项研究是与Lambert House: LGBTQ+青年社区中心一起进行的,这是华盛顿州西雅图唯一一家专门为LGBTQ+青年和年轻人服务的社会服务机构。本定性研究分析的数据包括:审查项目文件、实地观察笔记和半结构化访谈。该研究的目的是:1)开发一种创新的理论和方法策略,以评估流动项目及其有效潜力;2)根据项目利益相关者和参与者的观点,确定哪些项目理论推动了项目结构和内容;3)评估当地项目理论模型的最终蓝图与循证实践原则的一致性。
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引用次数: 0
Risk of Revocation: Assessing Correlates of Failure in a Pretrial Services Program 撤销的风险:评估审前服务项目失败的相关因素
IF 2.1 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-12-06 DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2021.2009312
Stephen J Clipper, Alexis J. Harper, Taylor Fisher
Abstract Personal recognizance (PR) bonds, often an option in pretrial services programs, allow defendants to be released while awaiting trial without financial backing. This offers some relief for jail overcrowding and permits the defendant the ability to maintain responsibilities of daily life. Not everyone released, however, successfully participates in these programs. This study seeks to analyze correlates and predictors of various types of non-compliance that could result in pretrial release forfeiture, operationalized by failure to appear in court and incurring new charges while on PR bond. This dependent variable is analyzed with several predictor variables that are excluded from traditional risk assessment tools and criminal history to determine the offenders most at risk for failure on pretrial release through a PR bond. Findings suggest the presence of several protective factors for program failure that are not typically considered when making release decisions such as having a passport and being the primary caregiver of children. The implications of these effects as well as variables that were collected but unable to be included in the present study are discussed.
个人担保(PR)债券通常是审前服务项目中的一种选择,允许被告在没有经济支持的情况下被释放候审。这在一定程度上缓解了监狱拥挤的状况,并使被告有能力维持日常生活的责任。然而,并不是每个被释放的人都成功地参与了这些项目。本研究旨在分析各种类型的违规行为的相关性和预测因素,这些违规行为可能导致审前释放没收,通过未能出庭和在公共关系保释金期间产生新的指控来实施。该因变量与传统风险评估工具和犯罪历史中排除的几个预测变量一起进行分析,以确定最有可能通过PR债券在审前释放失败的罪犯。研究结果表明,在做出释放决定时,通常不会考虑到项目失败的几个保护因素,比如持有护照和成为儿童的主要照顾者。讨论了这些影响的含义以及收集到但无法包括在本研究中的变量。
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引用次数: 1
Natural Disasters and the Effect of Celerity on Criminal Case Outcomes: A Natural Experiment in Kings County 自然灾害与快速性对刑事案件结果的影响:金斯县的自然实验
IF 2.1 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2021.1998790
Ruth A. Moyer
Abstract Using case-level data, this study tests whether an increase in average crime-to-disposition time for felony arrests affects case outcomes. These outcomes are the likelihood of no-conviction, the likelihood of downgrading during the case disposition process (regardless of whether the case resulted in a conviction or no conviction), and the likelihood of an incarceration sentence. On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy produced extreme weather conditions in the greater New York City area, including Kings County. For felonies committed during the two-week period (October 28, 2012–November 10, 2012), Kings County experienced, on average, a 20.2% increase (34.3 days) in crime-to-disposition time. This increase provides an instrumental variable (IV) to test the effect of crime-to-disposition time on criminal case outcomes. Neither the hurricane aftermath nor a crime-to-disposition delay had any significant effect on the likelihood of incarceration, the likelihood of no-conviction, or the likelihood of downgrading. As a theoretical matter, the IV estimates suggest that reduced celerity (operationalized by a 20% increase in case processing time) does not affect the severity of punishment (operationalized by incarceration), the certainty of punishment (operationalized by the likelihood of no-conviction), or case processing complexity (operationalized by the likelihood of downgrading).
摘要本研究使用个案数据,检验重罪逮捕的平均从犯罪到处置时间的增加是否会影响案件结果。这些结果是不定罪的可能性,在案件处理过程中降级的可能性(无论案件是否导致定罪或不定罪),以及监禁的可能性。2012年10月29日,飓风桑迪在包括金斯县在内的大纽约地区造成极端天气状况。在两周的时间内(2012年10月28日至11月10日),金斯县从犯罪到处置的平均时间增加了20.2%(34.3天)。这种增加提供了一个工具变量(IV)来测试犯罪到处置时间对刑事案件结果的影响。无论是飓风的后果还是从犯罪到处置的延迟,对监禁的可能性、不定罪的可能性或降级的可能性都没有任何显著影响。作为一个理论问题,IV估计表明,降低速度(案件处理时间增加20%)并不影响惩罚的严重性(通过监禁进行操作),惩罚的确定性(通过不定罪的可能性进行操作)或案件处理的复杂性(通过降级的可能性进行操作)。
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引用次数: 0
In Search of the Smoking Gun: Consensus and Division in the Gun Control Debate 寻找确凿的证据:枪支管制辩论中的共识与分歧
IF 2.1 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-11-18 DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2021.1952644
Megan C. Kurlychek, James Lee, Emerson Waite, Alexander J. Vanhee
Abstract Incidents of gun violence and mass shootings continue to shock the U.S. citizenry. Each time there is a call for change, but then little happens. In this article we explore the history of gun control in America, how the issue became polarized, and search for sources of consensus or divide. Situated in Pennsylvania, we utilize a state-wide survey and regional focus groups to explore why individuals support or oppose gun control. Similar to prior research, we find the topic becomes polarized when reduced to a discussion for or against the second amendment. However, in the focus groups, we find much consensus on specific proposed policies, particularly those designed to protect children. Overall, our findings reveal that citizens remain open to gun control when the debate is directed at specific policies, rather than rhetoric. Our findings are important for future research on gun control as well as to policy-makers.
枪支暴力和大规模枪击事件继续震惊美国公民。每次都有变革的呼声,但几乎没有什么变化。在这篇文章中,我们探讨了美国枪支管制的历史,这个问题是如何变得两极化的,并寻找共识或分歧的来源。位于宾夕法尼亚州,我们利用全州范围的调查和区域焦点小组来探讨为什么个人支持或反对枪支管制。与之前的研究类似,我们发现,当讨论减少到支持或反对第二修正案时,这个话题变得两极分化。然而,在焦点小组中,我们发现对具体的拟议政策,特别是那些旨在保护儿童的政策有很大的共识。总的来说,我们的研究结果表明,当辩论针对具体政策而不是言辞时,公民仍然对枪支管制持开放态度。我们的发现对未来的枪支管制研究以及政策制定者都很重要。
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引用次数: 0
Decarceration, Sanction Severity and Crime: Causal Analysis of Proposition 47 and Property Crime in Los Angeles 宣告、制裁力度与犯罪:47号提案与洛杉矶财产犯罪的因果分析
IF 2.1 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-11-18 DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2021.1996207
Matthew Renner, Bradley J. Bartos
Abstract Decarcerative policies aim to decrease rates of incarceration primarily through lessening the severity of criminal sanctions. These policies have proliferated in recent years as states looked to reduce correctional expenditures and begin to reverse decades of growth in incarceration. Yet, there are relatively few empirical studies that examine decarcerative policies. This study evaluates the impact of California’s Proposition 47 (Prop 47), which reduced penalties for a variety of low-level offenses. We utilize a range of causal methods (difference in difference, triple difference, and synthetic control group analysis) to estimate the effects of the policy on property crime rates in the Los Angeles; and to examine the potential mechanisms driving these effects. We find robust evidence that Prop 47 increased property crime in Los Angeles, and this finding emerges across our methodological approaches. We discuss our findings in the context of a growing body of literature on Prop 47; and conclude that the policy was effective in limiting crime rate increases to anticipated and low-level offenses while achieving its primary aim of decarceration.
减刑政策主要通过减轻刑事制裁的严厉程度来降低监禁率。近年来,随着各州希望减少惩教支出,并开始扭转数十年来监禁人数增长的趋势,这些政策得到了广泛推广。然而,检验去中心化政策的实证研究相对较少。本研究评估了加州第47号提案(Prop 47)的影响,该提案减少了对各种低级犯罪的处罚。我们利用一系列因果方法(差异中的差异、三重差异和综合对照组分析)来估计该政策对洛杉矶财产犯罪率的影响;并研究导致这些影响的潜在机制。我们发现有力的证据表明,47号提案增加了洛杉矶的财产犯罪,这一发现在我们的研究方法中得到了体现。我们在越来越多关于第47号提案的文献的背景下讨论我们的发现;并得出结论,该政策有效地限制了预期和低水平犯罪的犯罪率增长,同时实现了解除隔离的主要目标。
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引用次数: 1
Methodological Quality and Validity Issues in the Crime Prevention Literature 预防犯罪文献中的方法质量和有效性问题
IF 2.1 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-11-04 DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2021.1972767
C. Morgan, A. Petrosino, D. Farrington
Abstract This paper presents an assessment of the existing literature on validity and methodology relevant to crime prevention studies. Reports eligible for inclusion in the review focused on assessing the methodological quality of crime prevention evaluations. A narrative synthesis approach was used to review the included reports to examine how validity considerations are assessed and addressed in criminological impact evaluations. The reports reviewed included substantive discussions of the five types of validity, as well as discussions of interrelated issues of evaluation design, methodological quality scales, and evidence-based registries. We recommend that all crime prevention evaluations address the methodological issues discussed in this article. In addition, policymakers should consume research with a critical eye toward potential validity issues. Where valid evaluations show interventions to be promising, practitioners should make efforts to ensure fidelity in program implementation. Registries should support policymakers and practitioners in identifying and implementing evidence-based policy and programming through providing guidance on choosing interventions aligned to their priorities and settings, understanding the strengths and weaknesses of various strategies and programs and the conditions under which they are successful, and implementing programs and replicating evaluations with fidelity.
摘要本文对现有的有关犯罪预防研究的有效性和方法论文献进行了评估。有资格列入审查的报告侧重于评估预防犯罪评价的方法学质量。采用叙述综合方法审查纳入的报告,以检查在犯罪学影响评价中如何评估和处理有效性因素。审查的报告包括对五种效度类型的实质性讨论,以及对评价设计、方法学质量量表和循证登记等相关问题的讨论。我们建议所有预防犯罪的评估都处理本文中讨论的方法问题。此外,政策制定者应该以批判的眼光看待潜在的有效性问题。在有效的评估显示干预措施是有希望的地方,从业者应该努力确保计划实施的保真度。登记处应支持决策者和从业人员确定和实施基于证据的政策和规划,方法是提供指导,指导他们选择符合其优先事项和环境的干预措施,了解各种战略和规划的优缺点及其成功的条件,以及忠实地实施规划和复制评估。
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引用次数: 2
An Evaluation of Light Positioning on Suspect Accuracy in Low Light Environments 微光环境下光定位对嫌疑犯精度的影响
IF 2.1 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-10-21 DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2021.1970482
J. Pete Blair, M. Hunter Martaindale, Emily D Spivey
Abstract Police are sometimes required to conduct searches for hostile suspects or clear a building when an alarm sounds. These searches often times occur in low light conditions. Police will routinely use a flashlight to help with the search. This study evaluates three of the most commonly taught flashlight tactics to assess if any can reduce the likelihood of a police officer being shot by a hostile suspect. The study utilized a randomized controlled trial (n = 236) with random assignment to three test conditions. Ultimately, the study found the Dagger technique reduced the likelihood that participants playing the role of a hostile suspect would successfully shoot the officer in a controlled setting. This finding can directly impact how police officers are trained to operate in low light settings.
当警报响起时,警察有时需要对有敌意的嫌疑人进行搜查或清理建筑物。这些搜索通常发生在弱光条件下。警方将照例使用手电筒协助搜查。这项研究评估了三种最常用的手电筒战术,以评估是否有任何战术可以减少警察被敌对嫌疑人击中的可能性。该研究采用随机对照试验(n = 236),随机分配到三个测试条件。最终,研究发现,匕首技术降低了在受控环境下扮演敌对嫌疑人的参与者成功射杀警官的可能性。这一发现可以直接影响警察在低光环境下的操作训练。
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引用次数: 1
A Long-Term Follow-Up Evaluation of an Employment Assistance Reentry Program 就业援助再就业计划的长期跟踪评估
IF 2.1 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2021-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2021.1965494
S. Mcneeley
Abstract This study uses a quasi-experimental design to evaluate the effectiveness of an employment assistance program implemented in Minnesota prisons by examining recidivism and post-release employment outcomes of 2,814 individuals released between 2009 and 2018. Observable selection bias was reduced by using propensity score matching to create similar treatment and comparison groups. Results of Cox regression analyses showed that completing EMPLOY reduced the hazard ratio for recidivism by 27–66%. The findings further showed that those who completed EMPLOY were more likely to gain post-release employment within two years after release from prison and worked more hours, had higher hourly wages, and earned more total wages during the two-year follow-up period.
摘要本研究采用准实验设计,通过对2009年至2018年间刑满释放的2814名罪犯的再犯和释放后就业结果进行分析,评估明尼苏达州监狱实施就业援助项目的有效性。通过使用倾向评分匹配来创建相似的治疗组和对照组,减少了可观察到的选择偏差。Cox回归分析的结果显示,完成雇佣使再犯的风险比降低了27-66%。研究结果进一步表明,那些完成了“雇佣计划”的人更有可能在出狱后的两年内找到工作,在两年的随访期间,他们工作的时间更长,时薪更高,总工资也更高。
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引用次数: 3
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Justice Evaluation Journal
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