Pub Date : 2021-08-25DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2021.1963636
K. Thompson, Beth m. Huebner
Abstract There is considerable research on the efficacy of sex offense registries, but less is known about individual compliance with registration. Recent research and subsequent policy have highlighted the importance of understanding technical violations as a hidden driver of mass incarceration, and there is emerging evidence that suggests that agency violation practices vary widely. We analyzed administrative data from a large sample of individuals on the sex offense registry in Missouri to identify the factors associated with risk for noncompliance, including a technical violation and reincarceration. Both stable and dynamic factors contribute to our understanding of compliance and incarceration. Findings also suggest that living in a county with few registrants contributes to lowered odds of noncompliance. Alternatively, high caseloads contribute to greater odds of incarceration only. More generally, we find a sizeable portion of jurisdictional variation remains for both noncompliance and incarceration, a finding that suggests different enforcement practices across place.
{"title":"Predicting Failure on the Sex Offense Registry: An Examination of Static and Dynamic Factors","authors":"K. Thompson, Beth m. Huebner","doi":"10.1080/24751979.2021.1963636","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24751979.2021.1963636","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract There is considerable research on the efficacy of sex offense registries, but less is known about individual compliance with registration. Recent research and subsequent policy have highlighted the importance of understanding technical violations as a hidden driver of mass incarceration, and there is emerging evidence that suggests that agency violation practices vary widely. We analyzed administrative data from a large sample of individuals on the sex offense registry in Missouri to identify the factors associated with risk for noncompliance, including a technical violation and reincarceration. Both stable and dynamic factors contribute to our understanding of compliance and incarceration. Findings also suggest that living in a county with few registrants contributes to lowered odds of noncompliance. Alternatively, high caseloads contribute to greater odds of incarceration only. More generally, we find a sizeable portion of jurisdictional variation remains for both noncompliance and incarceration, a finding that suggests different enforcement practices across place.","PeriodicalId":41318,"journal":{"name":"Justice Evaluation Journal","volume":"4 1","pages":"53 - 71"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75346028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-13DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2021.1963637
V. Beck, Matt Richie, Bryan Wright, David Jones
Abstract Between consenting adults, the private electronic sharing of nude photos is generally not illegal. However, when adolescents mimic this adult behavior they are in possession of child pornography and/or engaging in the pandering of child pornography, both of which are crimes in the United States. To address this fairly new adolescent social “sexting” problem, the Social Media & Sexting Intervention Program was created. This is a curriculum based juvenile diversion program recently established in two counties in Wisconsin. The purpose of the current study was to provide a preliminary evaluation assessing the impact of the program. During the first year of the program, 66 adolescents were referred to the program by school resource officers and courts in the two counties. Of those 66 referrals, 61 adolescents were able to participate in the program. A pre/post-test design was used to assess knowledge gained and attitude changes. Overall, the results of the assessment indicate that the program is educationally promising. Perhaps just as importantly, the program protects adolescents from an overly punitive justice system.
{"title":"Social Media and Sexting Intervention: A New Juvenile Diversion Program","authors":"V. Beck, Matt Richie, Bryan Wright, David Jones","doi":"10.1080/24751979.2021.1963637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24751979.2021.1963637","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Between consenting adults, the private electronic sharing of nude photos is generally not illegal. However, when adolescents mimic this adult behavior they are in possession of child pornography and/or engaging in the pandering of child pornography, both of which are crimes in the United States. To address this fairly new adolescent social “sexting” problem, the Social Media & Sexting Intervention Program was created. This is a curriculum based juvenile diversion program recently established in two counties in Wisconsin. The purpose of the current study was to provide a preliminary evaluation assessing the impact of the program. During the first year of the program, 66 adolescents were referred to the program by school resource officers and courts in the two counties. Of those 66 referrals, 61 adolescents were able to participate in the program. A pre/post-test design was used to assess knowledge gained and attitude changes. Overall, the results of the assessment indicate that the program is educationally promising. Perhaps just as importantly, the program protects adolescents from an overly punitive justice system.","PeriodicalId":41318,"journal":{"name":"Justice Evaluation Journal","volume":"24 1","pages":"72 - 89"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82928083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-15DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2021.1952643
Chelsea W. Harris, Lindsey E. Wylie
Abstract Drug testing is a frequent condition of juvenile justice programs, although research on the effects of drug testing juveniles – especially early system-involved youth – is scarce. The risk-needs-responsivity (RNR) model suggests drug testing would only be a beneficial intervention if substance use contributes to a youth’s criminal behavior and has a rehabilitative component. We examined drug testing policies and practices in one Midwestern state utilizing interviews with 27 diversion program managers and a statewide sample of 665 youth referred to pretrial diversion. Analysis tested whether drug testing juveniles with and without a substance use need predicted successful completion of diversion and decreased the probability of future system involvement. Results indicated that drug testing was not a significant predictor of successfully completing diversion, nor did it decrease youths’ odds of recidivating in the year after discharge from diversion. Further, those with a substance use need were significantly less likely to successfully complete diversion than those without a substance use need, indicating that diversion programs should utilize rehabilitative methods for addressing criminogenic drug or alcohol needs.
{"title":"Drug Testing Policies and Practices: Predicting Successful Outcomes among Juveniles Participating in Pretrial Diversion Programs","authors":"Chelsea W. Harris, Lindsey E. Wylie","doi":"10.1080/24751979.2021.1952643","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24751979.2021.1952643","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Drug testing is a frequent condition of juvenile justice programs, although research on the effects of drug testing juveniles – especially early system-involved youth – is scarce. The risk-needs-responsivity (RNR) model suggests drug testing would only be a beneficial intervention if substance use contributes to a youth’s criminal behavior and has a rehabilitative component. We examined drug testing policies and practices in one Midwestern state utilizing interviews with 27 diversion program managers and a statewide sample of 665 youth referred to pretrial diversion. Analysis tested whether drug testing juveniles with and without a substance use need predicted successful completion of diversion and decreased the probability of future system involvement. Results indicated that drug testing was not a significant predictor of successfully completing diversion, nor did it decrease youths’ odds of recidivating in the year after discharge from diversion. Further, those with a substance use need were significantly less likely to successfully complete diversion than those without a substance use need, indicating that diversion programs should utilize rehabilitative methods for addressing criminogenic drug or alcohol needs.","PeriodicalId":41318,"journal":{"name":"Justice Evaluation Journal","volume":"47 1","pages":"36 - 52"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85531783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-16DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2021.1933570
V. Anderson, Laura L. Rubino, N. McKenna, C. Campbell, Amber A. Petkus, Ashlee R. Barnes-Lee
Abstract In-home detention tethers are an intermediate, correctional sanction that have become popular alternatives to detention or incarceration. However, there is limited research on whether in-home detention tethers reduce recidivism among juvenile legal system involved girls. The current quasi-experimental study examines recidivism outcomes among adjudicated girls who received the intervention compared to a matched comparison group of girls. Recidivism rates were analyzed following completion of the intervention. In-home detention tethers were not found to be an effective method to reduce recidivism among girls.
{"title":"(In)Effectiveness of In-Home Detention Tethers to Reduce Recidivism for System-Involved Girls","authors":"V. Anderson, Laura L. Rubino, N. McKenna, C. Campbell, Amber A. Petkus, Ashlee R. Barnes-Lee","doi":"10.1080/24751979.2021.1933570","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24751979.2021.1933570","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In-home detention tethers are an intermediate, correctional sanction that have become popular alternatives to detention or incarceration. However, there is limited research on whether in-home detention tethers reduce recidivism among juvenile legal system involved girls. The current quasi-experimental study examines recidivism outcomes among adjudicated girls who received the intervention compared to a matched comparison group of girls. Recidivism rates were analyzed following completion of the intervention. In-home detention tethers were not found to be an effective method to reduce recidivism among girls.","PeriodicalId":41318,"journal":{"name":"Justice Evaluation Journal","volume":"19 1","pages":"19 - 35"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84108283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-26DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2021.1941194
Christopher J. Schreck
Abstract Criminology has traditionally emphasized the offender, relegating theory, research, and policy on target decision-making to a place of relative unimportance. I advocate a different view. In choice theory, offenders prefer quick and easy reward at little risk, acting with target vulnerability very much in mind. I use choice theory concepts and assumptions to account for target precautionary behavior. The principles of certainty, swiftness, and severity can be developed to explain not only when people will act to limit vulnerability, but also suggest the kinds of precautions that tend to be chosen reliably. Low self-control, a source of victimization risk, lessens feelings of certainty of victimization and fosters a preference for the easiest and most immediately gratifying methods of protection. In addition to stimulating theorizing and research to improve the usage and consistency of precautionary behavior, this theory also offers insights about controversial choices to acquire defensive weapons.
{"title":"The Value of Understanding the Human Side of Precautionary Behavior for Criminology and Crime Control Policy: The 2021 Bruce Smith Sr. Award Address to the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences","authors":"Christopher J. Schreck","doi":"10.1080/24751979.2021.1941194","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24751979.2021.1941194","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Criminology has traditionally emphasized the offender, relegating theory, research, and policy on target decision-making to a place of relative unimportance. I advocate a different view. In choice theory, offenders prefer quick and easy reward at little risk, acting with target vulnerability very much in mind. I use choice theory concepts and assumptions to account for target precautionary behavior. The principles of certainty, swiftness, and severity can be developed to explain not only when people will act to limit vulnerability, but also suggest the kinds of precautions that tend to be chosen reliably. Low self-control, a source of victimization risk, lessens feelings of certainty of victimization and fosters a preference for the easiest and most immediately gratifying methods of protection. In addition to stimulating theorizing and research to improve the usage and consistency of precautionary behavior, this theory also offers insights about controversial choices to acquire defensive weapons.","PeriodicalId":41318,"journal":{"name":"Justice Evaluation Journal","volume":"153 1","pages":"163 - 175"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86647997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-02-22DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2021.1887709
P. Brantingham, George E. Tita, D. Herz
Abstract The City of Los Angeles Mayor’s Office of Gang Reduction and Youth Development (GRYD) program was conceived as a comprehensive response to gang violence. Unlike most comprehensive approaches, suppression was excluded from the primary model. Program services including community engagement, gang prevention and intervention services, and street-based violence interruption, were formally launched in late 2011. Strict geographic eligibility criteria mean that GRYD services were available in some Los Angeles communities and not others. Using the geographic structure of GRYD, we use a place-based difference-in-differences model to estimate the effect of GRYD services on both violent and property crime. The analyses suggest a reduction in violent crime of around 18% in areas exposed to GRYD Comprehensive Strategy services, including aggravated assault and robbery. Similar declines are not observed in property crimes including burglary and car theft. Comparison with evaluations of placed-based gang injunctions demonstrate that GRYD is able to achieve nearly one-half of the reductions in crime without a suppression focus.
{"title":"The Impact of the City of Los Angeles Mayor’s Office of Gang Reduction and Youth Development (GRYD) Comprehensive Strategy on Crime in the City of Los Angeles","authors":"P. Brantingham, George E. Tita, D. Herz","doi":"10.1080/24751979.2021.1887709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24751979.2021.1887709","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The City of Los Angeles Mayor’s Office of Gang Reduction and Youth Development (GRYD) program was conceived as a comprehensive response to gang violence. Unlike most comprehensive approaches, suppression was excluded from the primary model. Program services including community engagement, gang prevention and intervention services, and street-based violence interruption, were formally launched in late 2011. Strict geographic eligibility criteria mean that GRYD services were available in some Los Angeles communities and not others. Using the geographic structure of GRYD, we use a place-based difference-in-differences model to estimate the effect of GRYD services on both violent and property crime. The analyses suggest a reduction in violent crime of around 18% in areas exposed to GRYD Comprehensive Strategy services, including aggravated assault and robbery. Similar declines are not observed in property crimes including burglary and car theft. Comparison with evaluations of placed-based gang injunctions demonstrate that GRYD is able to achieve nearly one-half of the reductions in crime without a suppression focus.","PeriodicalId":41318,"journal":{"name":"Justice Evaluation Journal","volume":"2018 1","pages":"217 - 236"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87799578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-02-15DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2021.1877090
C. Okpara, A. Hendricks, L. Cobb
Abstract In Colorado, studies have shown that the likelihood of the prosecutions’ decision to pursue the death penalty is related to the defendant’s race and judicial district of the trial. These studies examined race and district separately without incorporating aggravating or mitigating factors resulting in others questioning the studies’ validity. Our objective is to address these concerns by modelling race and population density together along with applied aggravating and mitigating factors. We found that the likelihood of the prosecutions’ decision to pursue the death penalty differs by the number of aggravating factors applied to a case, applicability of specific aggravating factors, and the defendant's race. Additionally, there were aggravating factors that were frequently applied yet did not predict the average prosecution’s decision to pursue the death penalty beyond contributing to the overall number of aggravating factors applied to the case.
{"title":"Beyond Aggravating and Mitigating Factors: The Analysis of Colorado's Death Penalty Cases (1999-2010):","authors":"C. Okpara, A. Hendricks, L. Cobb","doi":"10.1080/24751979.2021.1877090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24751979.2021.1877090","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In Colorado, studies have shown that the likelihood of the prosecutions’ decision to pursue the death penalty is related to the defendant’s race and judicial district of the trial. These studies examined race and district separately without incorporating aggravating or mitigating factors resulting in others questioning the studies’ validity. Our objective is to address these concerns by modelling race and population density together along with applied aggravating and mitigating factors. We found that the likelihood of the prosecutions’ decision to pursue the death penalty differs by the number of aggravating factors applied to a case, applicability of specific aggravating factors, and the defendant's race. Additionally, there were aggravating factors that were frequently applied yet did not predict the average prosecution’s decision to pursue the death penalty beyond contributing to the overall number of aggravating factors applied to the case.","PeriodicalId":41318,"journal":{"name":"Justice Evaluation Journal","volume":"89 1","pages":"281 - 315"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73059655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-07DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2020.1853484
D. Littman, S. Sliva
Abstract Considerable research has linked participation in arts programs to a constellation of positive social emotional outcomes for incarcerated participants. This article describes and evaluates a set of semester-long University of Denver Prison Arts Initiative (DU PAI) workshops. Through a pretest-posttest evaluation design inclusive of 22 quantitative and three qualitative items, we measured a range of outcomes for DU PAI participants (N = 119). Quantitative findings support prior work which associates participation in prison arts programs with social emotional outcomes such as community connection, skill attainment, and self-efficacy. Qualitative findings offered insight into participants’ experiences of the workshops, including: learning, growth, and discovery; opening up; authentic self-expression; empathy and perspective taking; belonging and connection; creative collaboration; joy and freedom. We also identified facilitator qualities which foster participant growth, including: safety, caring and respect, participation, and emotional involvement. Our findings suggest that prison arts programming may transcend skills-based and social emotional outcomes to invoke liberatory experiences for participants. There is a need for additional research to more clearly explore the effects of contextual factors and further concretize the unique role of arts programs in carceral spaces.
{"title":"“The walls came down:” A Mixed-Methods Multi-Site Prison Arts Program Evaluation","authors":"D. Littman, S. Sliva","doi":"10.1080/24751979.2020.1853484","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24751979.2020.1853484","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Considerable research has linked participation in arts programs to a constellation of positive social emotional outcomes for incarcerated participants. This article describes and evaluates a set of semester-long University of Denver Prison Arts Initiative (DU PAI) workshops. Through a pretest-posttest evaluation design inclusive of 22 quantitative and three qualitative items, we measured a range of outcomes for DU PAI participants (N = 119). Quantitative findings support prior work which associates participation in prison arts programs with social emotional outcomes such as community connection, skill attainment, and self-efficacy. Qualitative findings offered insight into participants’ experiences of the workshops, including: learning, growth, and discovery; opening up; authentic self-expression; empathy and perspective taking; belonging and connection; creative collaboration; joy and freedom. We also identified facilitator qualities which foster participant growth, including: safety, caring and respect, participation, and emotional involvement. Our findings suggest that prison arts programming may transcend skills-based and social emotional outcomes to invoke liberatory experiences for participants. There is a need for additional research to more clearly explore the effects of contextual factors and further concretize the unique role of arts programs in carceral spaces.","PeriodicalId":41318,"journal":{"name":"Justice Evaluation Journal","volume":"40 1","pages":"237 - 259"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85296581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-02DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2021.1881410
Scott M. Mourtgos, Ian T. Adams, Justin Nix, Tara N. Richards
Abstract The present study employs a quasi-experimental design to evaluate the effects of a mandatory sexual assault kit (SAK) testing policy on rape arrests in a large western US jurisdiction. We use a Bayesian structural time-series model and monthly data on arrests for rape from 2010 through 2019. In the post-implementation period, we observed a downward trend in the arrest rate for rape. Based on the results, the most conservative interpretation of our findings is that the policy implementation did not affect rape arrest rates. While mandatory SAK testing policies are often advocated for based on the belief that they will increase arrest rates for sexual assault (among other proposed benefits), we add to growing empirical evidence that policy interventions beyond mandatory SAK testing are needed to increase arrest rates for sexual assault. Jurisdictions that currently use mandatory SAK testing policies are encouraged to assess stakeholders’ experiences to proactively address resource allocation, consider other policies that may increase accountability for sexual assault offenders, and utilize victim service providers to support other measures of success with victims in instances where no arrest is made.
{"title":"Mandatory Sexual Assault Kit Testing Policies and Arrest Trends: A Natural Experiment","authors":"Scott M. Mourtgos, Ian T. Adams, Justin Nix, Tara N. Richards","doi":"10.1080/24751979.2021.1881410","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24751979.2021.1881410","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The present study employs a quasi-experimental design to evaluate the effects of a mandatory sexual assault kit (SAK) testing policy on rape arrests in a large western US jurisdiction. We use a Bayesian structural time-series model and monthly data on arrests for rape from 2010 through 2019. In the post-implementation period, we observed a downward trend in the arrest rate for rape. Based on the results, the most conservative interpretation of our findings is that the policy implementation did not affect rape arrest rates. While mandatory SAK testing policies are often advocated for based on the belief that they will increase arrest rates for sexual assault (among other proposed benefits), we add to growing empirical evidence that policy interventions beyond mandatory SAK testing are needed to increase arrest rates for sexual assault. Jurisdictions that currently use mandatory SAK testing policies are encouraged to assess stakeholders’ experiences to proactively address resource allocation, consider other policies that may increase accountability for sexual assault offenders, and utilize victim service providers to support other measures of success with victims in instances where no arrest is made.","PeriodicalId":41318,"journal":{"name":"Justice Evaluation Journal","volume":"33 6 1","pages":"145 - 162"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80141496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-21DOI: 10.1080/24751979.2020.1858697
Eric L. Piza, Vijay F. Chillar
Abstract The current study tests the effect of police layoffs on crime through a natural experiment involving Newark and Jersey City, New Jersey’s two largest cities. In response to severe budget shortfalls resulting from the economic recession beginning in 2008, officials in both cities seriously considered police layoffs as a potential component of their cutback strategies. The Newark Police Department terminated 13% of the police force in late 2010 while Jersey City officials averted any layoffs from occurring. The current study uses monthly Part 1 crime counts spanning from 2006 to 2015 to measure the effect of the police layoffs on crime in Newark. Findings of time series generalized least squares regression models indicate the police layoffs were associated with significant increases of overall crime, violent crime, and property crime in Newark as compared to Jersey City in the post-layoffs period. Supplemental analyses found the overall crime and violent crime increases become progressively more pronounced each year following the police layoffs.
{"title":"The Effect of Police Layoffs on Crime: A Natural Experiment Involving New Jersey’s Two Largest Cities","authors":"Eric L. Piza, Vijay F. Chillar","doi":"10.1080/24751979.2020.1858697","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24751979.2020.1858697","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The current study tests the effect of police layoffs on crime through a natural experiment involving Newark and Jersey City, New Jersey’s two largest cities. In response to severe budget shortfalls resulting from the economic recession beginning in 2008, officials in both cities seriously considered police layoffs as a potential component of their cutback strategies. The Newark Police Department terminated 13% of the police force in late 2010 while Jersey City officials averted any layoffs from occurring. The current study uses monthly Part 1 crime counts spanning from 2006 to 2015 to measure the effect of the police layoffs on crime in Newark. Findings of time series generalized least squares regression models indicate the police layoffs were associated with significant increases of overall crime, violent crime, and property crime in Newark as compared to Jersey City in the post-layoffs period. Supplemental analyses found the overall crime and violent crime increases become progressively more pronounced each year following the police layoffs.","PeriodicalId":41318,"journal":{"name":"Justice Evaluation Journal","volume":"8 1","pages":"176 - 196"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2020-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81141565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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