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Interstate Wars and Terrorism: the Effect of External Enemies on Domestic and Transnational Terrorism 国家间战争与恐怖主义:外部敌人对国内和跨国恐怖主义的影响
IF 0.5 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-04-30 DOI: 10.14731/KJIS.2021.04.19.1.73
Yongjae Lee
Current research about terrorism does not pay much attention to the relationship between terrorist incidents and interstate wars. This research project examines how interstate wars influenced terrorist incidents from 1970 to 2007 through an empirical study at the monadic level. This project attempts to explain that how interstate wars reduce domestic and transnational terrorist activities through three theoretical explanations, such as the diversionary theory of war, realism, and controlling freedom. In terms of the diversionary theory of war, because external threats like a war divert citizens’ discontent, terrorist incidents decrease in the war period. According to realism theory in the study of international relations, because trade that could increase other countries’ relative interests decreases in wartime, terrorists have less opportunities to obtain resources. Since a government limits public liberty in order to protect national security during war, terrorists confront higher risks and lose an incentive to conduct terrorist attacks. The empirical analysis demonstrates that interstate wars decreased the numbers of domestic and transnational terrorist incidents. However, less freedom during wartime had a critical impact on increasing domestic and international terrorist incidents.
目前关于恐怖主义的研究对恐怖事件与国家间战争的关系关注较少。本研究项目通过单一层面的实证研究,考察了1970年至2007年间国家间战争对恐怖事件的影响。这个项目试图通过三个理论解释来解释国家间战争是如何减少国内和跨国恐怖主义活动的,比如战争的转移理论、现实主义和控制自由。在战争转移理论中,由于战争等外部威胁转移了公民的不满情绪,恐怖事件在战争时期有所减少。根据国际关系研究中的现实主义理论,由于战时可以增加其他国家相对利益的贸易减少,恐怖分子获得资源的机会减少。由于政府在战争期间为了保护国家安全而限制公众自由,恐怖分子面临更高的风险,失去了发动恐怖袭击的动机。实证分析表明,国家间战争减少了国内和跨国恐怖事件的数量。然而,战争期间自由的减少对国内和国际恐怖主义事件的增加产生了关键影响。
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引用次数: 0
Asymmetry of Power, Attention, and Reciprocity: Determinants of ROK-China Partnership Diplomacy Failure 权力、注意力和互惠的不对称:韩中伙伴外交失败的决定因素
IF 0.5 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-04-30 DOI: 10.14731/KJIS.2021.04.19.1.49
Y. Chung
“Partnership diplomacy” in the study of Chinese foreign affairs has weak theoretical underpinnings and has been defined in a manner insufficiently systematic for middle-range theorizing. Whilst sufficient attention has been paid to determinants of partnership formation, its failure has hitherto received scant attention. To understand this failure, this paper identifies asymmetry of power, attention, and reciprocity as the three major determinants of China’s partnership diplomacy failure, generating distorted expectations and prediction uncertainty. Using the ROK–China partnership as a case study, we adopt a conceptual frame from the literature on asymmetric alliances to increase theoretical precision, conceptual clarity, and contextual similarity. We argue that South Korea’s naivety about the asymmetries in play and China’s overestimation of the ease with which it could leverage the framework to its advantage, ultimately led to collective action dilemmas and mutually exclusive expectations. In conclusion, we incorporate diverse theoretical perspectives more attuned to the actual realities in predicting the future of the bilateral partnership.
中国外交研究中的“伙伴关系外交”理论基础薄弱,对其定义不够系统,不适合中期理论。尽管人们对伙伴关系形成的决定因素给予了足够的关注,但迄今为止,伙伴关系的失败却很少受到关注。为了理解这一失败,本文将权力、注意力和互惠的不对称确定为中国伙伴关系外交失败的三大决定因素,产生了扭曲的预期和预测的不确定性。以韩中伙伴关系为例,我们采用了文献中关于不对称联盟的概念框架,以提高理论准确性、概念清晰度和上下文相似性。我们认为,韩国对不对称性的天真态度,以及中国对利用该框架对其有利的程度的高估,最终导致了集体行动的困境和相互排斥的期望。最后,我们在预测双边伙伴关系的未来时,纳入了更符合实际情况的各种理论观点。
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引用次数: 0
The Security and Human Rights Nexus in North Korea: Is Self-Organizing Dynamics Feasible? 朝鲜的安全与人权关系:自组织动力可行吗?
IF 0.5 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-04-30 DOI: 10.14731/KJIS.2021.04.19.1.29
Ki-Joon Hong
The primary objective of this article is to examine the possibility of path emergence by institutionalizing the security and human rights nexus in North Korea. The underlying assumption of this study is that institutionalization of the security and human rights nexus in a repressive state sets in motion self-organizing dynamics which often shift the institutional path of the country from path dependence to path emergence, culminating in drastic socio-political transformation. Path emergence unfolds through the sequential phases of an influx of information, activation of frame resonance, strategic coordination in a network, a boomerang effect and finally a threshold effect. This theoretical framework is applied to the case of North Korea. This article argues that self-organizing dynamics may occur in North Korea if the security and human rights nexus in Korea were to be institutionalized within a single institutional framework.
本文的主要目的是通过将朝鲜的安全和人权关系制度化来研究出现道路的可能性。这项研究的基本假设是,在一个压制性国家,安全和人权关系的制度化启动了自组织动力,这往往会将国家的制度路径从路径依赖转变为路径涌现,最终导致剧烈的社会政治变革。路径出现通过信息流入、框架共振激活、网络中的战略协调、回旋镖效应以及最终的阈值效应的顺序阶段展开。这一理论框架适用于朝鲜的情况。本文认为,如果朝鲜的安全和人权关系在一个单一的制度框架内制度化,那么朝鲜可能会出现自组织动态。
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引用次数: 0
Tweaking or Breaking of the International Order: Kissinger, Shultz, and Transatlantic Relations, 1971-1973 国际秩序的调整或破坏:基辛格、舒尔茨和跨大西洋关系,1971-1973
IF 0.5 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-04-30 DOI: 10.14731/KJIS.2021.04.19.1.1
YoungHa Ki
This study analyzes the Nixon administration’s attempts to renegotiate the terms of the postwar international order, focusing on two events: the reform of Bretton Woods and the Year of Europe initiative. Through these two initiatives, Nixon and Kissinger sought to tweak economic and military arrangements between the United States and Western Europe, ultimately aiming to preserve the U.S.-led liberal order and the Atlantic alliance. However, a series of American foreign policies facilitated the disintegration of the postwar international monetary system and heightened transatlantic tensions. Henry Kissinger failed to address a value complexity problem in his new European initiative, sending confusing signals to Europeans. Moreover, George Shultz’s laissez-faire monetary policy undermined transatlantic efforts to reinstate Bretton Woods, exacerbating Europe’s skepticism about U.S. intentions. Convinced that Americans were building a new political-economic system in which they would predominate, Europeans accelerated efforts to strengthen their own economic and political integration. This research emphasizes domestic sources of strain in the Atlantic alliance and the liberal international order, with further implications for post-Trump U.S. foreign policy. It highlights the importance of ideological and leadership shifts, such as the rise of neoliberalism in the 1970s and the contemporary resurgence of nationalism. Also, it cautions that strategies to preserve the status quo can be interpreted as revisionist moves due to conceptualization and coordination issues in foreign policy decision-making. whether break it. A proper handling of value complexity and clear signaling of benevolent would be essential to reduce miscommunication among the allies. Secondly, this shows that domestic shifts contributed to the change in the fundamental character of the order. The Bretton Woods system embodied the principle of embedded liberalism which balanced a liberal market economy and welfare states. This study highlights how ideological and shifts in the States facilitated the evolution of the into a An interesting comparison
本研究分析了尼克松政府试图重新谈判战后国际秩序的条款,重点关注两个事件:布雷顿森林体系改革和欧洲年倡议。通过这两项举措,尼克松和基辛格试图调整美国和西欧之间的经济和军事安排,最终旨在维护美国领导的自由秩序和大西洋联盟。然而,美国的一系列外交政策促进了战后国际货币体系的解体,加剧了跨大西洋的紧张局势。亨利·基辛格在其新的欧洲倡议中未能解决价值复杂性问题,向欧洲人发出了令人困惑的信号。此外,乔治·舒尔茨的自由放任货币政策破坏了跨大西洋恢复布雷顿森林体系的努力,加剧了欧洲对美国意图的怀疑。欧洲人深信美国人正在建立一个他们将占主导地位的新政治经济体系,因此加快了加强自身经济和政治一体化的努力。这项研究强调了大西洋联盟和自由国际秩序的国内压力来源,并对后特朗普时代的美国外交政策产生了进一步的影响。它强调了意识形态和领导层转变的重要性,例如20世纪70年代新自由主义的兴起和当代民族主义的复兴。此外,它警告说,由于外交政策决策中的概念化和协调问题,维持现状的战略可能被解释为修正主义行动。正确处理价值观的复杂性和明确的善意信号对于减少盟友之间的沟通失误至关重要。其次,这表明国内的转变促成了秩序基本特征的改变。布雷顿森林体系体现了嵌入式自由主义原则,平衡了自由市场经济和福利国家。这项研究强调了美国的意识形态和转变如何促进了美国的演变。一个有趣的比较
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引用次数: 0
Institutional Rigidity of the Bretton Woods Institutions, Domestic Politics of the U.S. and the Establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank 布雷顿森林体系的制度刚性、美国国内政治与亚洲基础设施投资银行的建立
IF 0.5 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-04-30 DOI: 10.14731/KJIS.2021.04.19.1.105
Dong Kyu Kim, Jaein J. Lee, Byungwon Woo
What explains the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) by China? While existing studies have debated Chinese motivations behind the creation of the AIIB being revisionist or status quo oriented, we sidestep the debate and instead try to identify conditions that have provided at least a permissive environment for China to propose and establish the AIIB. We contend that the institutional rigidity, the difficulty with which institutional changes can occur over time, of the BWIs played a permissive role in the eventual establishment of the AIIB. We show that China has repeatedly complained its inadequate quota shares since early 2000s, yet its demand for increased quota shares commensurate to its size of economy has met with stiff resistance from status-quo biased countries and with the rigid rules of quota reallocation. The institutional rigidity of the BWIs is further complicated by the salience of the U.S. domestic politics in organizational decision-making of the BWIs. We highlight how the US Congress has effectively exerted a veto power over important decisions at the BWIs and how that has inflated Chinese frustration at the BWIs.
中国成立亚洲基础设施投资银行的原因是什么?尽管现有研究对中国创建亚投行背后的修正主义或现状导向的动机进行了辩论,但我们回避了这场辩论,而是试图确定至少为中国提议和建立亚投行提供了一个宽松环境的条件。我们认为,BWI的制度刚性,即随着时间的推移可能发生的制度变化的困难,在亚投行的最终成立中发挥了宽容的作用。我们发现,自21世纪初以来,中国一再抱怨其配额份额不足,但其对增加与其经济规模相称的配额份额的要求遭到了偏向现状的国家和严格的配额再分配规则的强烈抵制。由于美国国内政治在BWI组织决策中的突出地位,BWI的制度刚性进一步复杂化。我们强调了美国国会如何有效地对《生物武器公约》的重要决定行使否决权,以及这如何加剧了中国对《生物燃料公约》的不满。
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引用次数: 0
Discouraging the Bomb: U.S. Counterproliferation Success against Libya 令人沮丧的炸弹:美国对利比亚的反扩散成功
IF 0.5 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.14731/kjis.2020.12.18.3.197
Su-Jean Paek
This paper explains U.S. counterproliferation success against Libya. Throughout the history of nuclear counterproliferation, Libya was the only U.S. enemy which renounced its nuclear weapons program. This success was attributed to two factors – a credible guarantor and cooperation against a common threat – which reduced the level of distrust between the U.S. and Libya. The United Kingdom, a credible guarantor with willingness and capacity, alleviated distrust between the U.S. and Libya by providing its own security guarantee to Libya and by confirming Libya’s genuine intention for denuclearization to the U.S. The U.S.-Libyan cooperation against their common enemy – terrorist groups – also weakened distrust by allowing them to cooperate again on the nuclear issue. The findings of this paper have implications for explaining U.S. counterproliferation failures against North Korea and Iran.
这篇论文解释了美国对利比亚反扩散的成功。在整个核反扩散历史上,利比亚是美国唯一放弃核武器计划的敌人。这一成功归因于两个因素——可信的担保人和合作应对共同威胁——这降低了美国和利比亚之间的不信任程度。联合王国是一个有意愿和能力的可靠担保人,通过向利比亚提供自己的安全保障和向美国确认利比亚无核化的真正意图,缓解了美国和利比亚之间的不信任。美国和利比亚合作打击他们的共同敌人——恐怖组织——也通过允许他们在核问题上再次合作,削弱了不信任。这篇论文的发现对解释美国对朝鲜和伊朗的反扩散失败具有启示意义。
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引用次数: 0
Who Supports the US-led Global Order? An Empirical Analysis Using Survey Data 谁支持美国领导的全球秩序?基于调查数据的实证分析
IF 0.5 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.14731/kjis.2020.12.18.3.169
Alec Chung
Regarding the future of global leadership, there are four possible scenarios in a broad sense – the world led by 1) the US, 2) China, 3) both the US and China (G-2), and 4) neither the US nor China (G-0). Analyzing survey data, I examined which of the four scenarios individuals in democracies think would be better for the world in the future. The empirical results show that individuals who have a positive perception of the US and those who perceived China’s power and influence negatively were more likely to prefer the global order led by the US than China. Further, individuals who think they live in a state where democratic values such as transparency, fairness, and freedom are respected were also more likely to support the US than China as the global leader. The results suggest that those in favor of democratic values such as transparency, fairness, and freedom do not want to see a world led by China, which is regarded an authoritarian state. Finally, individuals who have a positive attitude toward trade were more likely to prefer a global order led by the US compared to one led by the G-2. However, attitudes toward trade did not affect one’s preference for a US or China-led global order. Overall, positive attitudes toward the US, negative views of China, and support for democratic values increased the likelihood that individuals would support a US-led global order.
关于全球领导地位的未来,广义上有四种可能的情况——世界由1)美国领导,2)中国领导,3)美国和中国都领导(G-2),4)美国和中方都不领导(G-0)。通过分析调查数据,我研究了民主国家的个人认为未来四种情况中哪一种对世界更好。实证结果表明,对美国持积极看法的人和对中国的力量和影响力持消极看法的人更倾向于美国领导的全球秩序,而不是中国。此外,那些认为自己生活在一个尊重透明、公平和自由等民主价值观的国家的人,也更有可能支持美国,而不是中国成为全球领导者。研究结果表明,那些支持透明、公平和自由等民主价值观的人不希望看到一个由中国领导的世界,中国被视为一个威权国家。最后,与20国集团领导的全球秩序相比,对贸易持积极态度的个人更有可能选择由美国领导的世界秩序。然而,对贸易的态度并没有影响人们对美国或中国主导的全球秩序的偏好。总体而言,对美国的积极态度、对中国的负面看法以及对民主价值观的支持增加了个人支持美国领导的全球秩序的可能性。
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引用次数: 1
Assessing Motives in Northeast Asian Aid Allocations: China, Japan, and Korea as a Collective Group and as Individual Donors 评估东北亚援助分配的动机:中国、日本和韩国作为集体和个人捐助者
IF 0.5 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2020-08-31 DOI: 10.14731/kjis.2020.08.18.2.123
H. Sohn, Seokwoo Kim, Changbin Woo
The landscape of global foreign aid is changing with the growing number of new donors, especially in Asia. While Japan is no longer overwhelmingly dominant, complexity grows as China is becoming increasingly influential as an emerging donor, and Korea is rising to be a considerable donor by joining the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee. In this context, there have been numerous controversies concerning East Asian donors, and even debates about the East Asian model of aid apart from the more traditional Western models. However, only a handful of studies have examined donor behavior empirically. This study aims to assess the motives in the foreign aid allocations of China, Japan, and Korea as a group and as individual donors by methodically and empirically examining aid patterns and the East Asian model of aid. This research shows that the most important drivers of aid allocations of East Asian donor are economic, as opposed to political-strategic or humanitarian, which is viewed as typical for China, Japan, and Korea. Furthermore, this characteristic of valuing economic factors can be seen more clearly in Asia and other regions compared to in Africa. However, on an individual country level, economic motives are the primary determinants of aid allocations only for China. Japan prioritizes humanitarian factors over economic ones, and Korea does not reveal a clear pattern either way. a uniform group distinct from the traditional Western model of aid, this study will show differences between each donor country by comparing the relative importance of their motives. Through such analyses, we aim for a comprehensive discussion of whether these East Asian donors on average are different from the traditional donors, and whether there are clear distinctions between individual donor countries.
随着新援助国数量的增加,尤其是在亚洲,全球对外援助的格局正在发生变化。虽然日本不再占据绝对优势,但随着中国作为新兴援助国的影响力越来越大,以及韩国加入经合组织(OECD)发展援助委员会(Development Assistance Committee),成为相当大的援助国,情况变得越来越复杂。在此背景下,关于东亚援助国的争议不断,甚至有关于东亚援助模式与更传统的西方模式之间的争论。然而,只有少数研究对捐赠者的行为进行了实证检验。本研究旨在通过系统地和实证地考察援助模式和东亚援助模式,评估中国、日本和韩国作为一个整体和个人捐助者的对外援助分配动机。这项研究表明,东亚捐助国的援助分配最重要的驱动因素是经济,而不是政治战略或人道主义,这被视为中国、日本和韩国的典型特征。此外,这种重视经济因素的特点在亚洲和其他地区比在非洲更为明显。然而,在单个国家的层面上,经济动机是只对中国援助分配的主要决定因素。日本优先考虑的是人道主义因素,而不是经济因素,韩国也没有表现出明确的模式。这是一个与传统西方援助模式截然不同的统一群体,本研究将通过比较其动机的相对重要性来显示每个捐助国之间的差异。通过这样的分析,我们旨在全面讨论这些东亚捐助国在平均水平上是否与传统捐助国不同,以及个别捐助国之间是否存在明显的区别。
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引用次数: 2
Geostrategic Imperatives of Gwadar Port for China 瓜达尔港对中国的地缘战略要求
IF 0.5 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2020-08-31 DOI: 10.14731/kjis.2020.08.18.2.145
Fakhar Hussain
The increasing demands of energy supplies and limitations of the possession of natural resources of energy have been making every nature of military, economic and diplomatic stratagems of nation states. The demand and supply gap has produced an environment of strategic competition among the leading energy consuming states. China has serious concerns about the likelihood of interruptions in the smooth transportation of oil and gas shipment tankers towards China from Africa and the Gulf region through the Strait of Malacca in relation to attacks by the pirates or terrorists, as 80% of oil used in China goes through shipping lines of the Strait of Malacca. China desires for reduction of its dependency on the Strait of Malacca and has been making efforts for the development of alternative transit routes. Pakistan has been in the position of bridging the gap by making available the possible shortest transit route for the shipping of energy. China has been looking for alternate prospects to safeguard its energy supplies. In the military and strategic terms, Gawadar may help to monitor the Sea Lines of Communications (SLOCs) originating from the Persian Gulf and bottle neck at Strait of Hormuz. Beijing can aspire to exercise considerable influence in the region, and monitor the Indo-US maritime collaboration in the Indian Ocean. This paper discusses the geostrategic imperatives of Gwadar for China in terms of Chinese quest for maritime, economic and energy security.
能源供应需求的增加和对能源自然资源拥有的限制,使民族国家的军事、经济和外交战略具有各种性质。供需缺口造成了主要能源消费国之间的战略竞争环境。中国严重关切从非洲和海湾地区经马六甲海峡运往中国的石油和天然气运输油轮可能因海盗或恐怖分子的袭击而中断运输,因为中国使用的石油80%通过马六甲海峡的航运线路。中国希望减少对马六甲海峡的依赖,并一直在努力开发替代过境路线。巴基斯坦一直处于弥补这一差距的地位,为能源运输提供尽可能短的过境路线。中国一直在寻找其他前景来保障其能源供应。在军事和战略方面,加瓦达尔可能有助于监测源自波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡瓶颈的海上通信线。北京可以渴望在该地区发挥相当大的影响力,并监督印美在印度洋的海上合作。本文从中国寻求海洋、经济和能源安全的角度讨论了瓜达尔对中国的地缘战略需求。
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引用次数: 6
Weapons Brushed By the Enemy: The Bounded Autonomy of Taiwan’s Middle Power Foreign Policy 敌人拂过的武器:台湾中等势力外交政策的有限自治
IF 0.5 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2020-04-30 DOI: 10.14731/kjis.2020.04.18.1.87
K. Choi
This study investigates the bounded autonomy of middle power diplomacy by analyzing the continuity and changes in Taiwan’s foreign policies. The case of Taiwan, which has emerged as a middle power through democratization and economic development, illustrates how the internal state of politics and the economy and the external state of security threats simultaneously constrain the foreign policies of middle power states. Democratization and economic development function not only as constraints on the foreign policy makers who deal with external security threats but also as a means to advance foreign policy in international politics. Establishing diplomatic ties with other countries and becoming a member of international organizations show how a country’s foreign policy makers use material and normative policy tools to pursue their aims in international politics and how the interaction between internal and external conditions constrains the autonomy of foreign policy. The bounded autonomy of middle power states in dealing with great powers and security threats is primarily caused by the dual effects of democratization and economic development on the selection and use of foreign policy tools.
本研究通过分析台湾外交政策的延续和变化,探讨了中等权力外交的有限自治。台湾作为一个通过民主化和经济发展而崛起的中间大国,说明了政治和经济的内部状态和安全威胁的外部状态如何同时制约着中间大国的外交政策。民主化和经济发展不仅制约着应对外部安全威胁的外交政策制定者,而且也是在国际政治中推进外交政策的一种手段。与其他国家建立外交关系并成为国际组织的成员,表明一国的外交政策制定者如何利用物质和规范的政策工具来追求其在国际政治中的目标,以及内部和外部条件之间的互动如何限制外交政策的自主权。中等强国在应对大国和安全威胁方面的有限自治主要是由民主化和经济发展对外交政策工具的选择和使用的双重影响造成的。
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引用次数: 1
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Korean Journal of International Studies
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