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Certainty Groups: A Practical Approach to Distinguish Confidence Levels in Neural Networks 确定性组:区分神经网络置信水平的实用方法
Pub Date : 2022-06-29 DOI: 10.36001/phme.2022.v7i1.3331
Lukas Lodes, Alexander Schiendorfer
Machine Learning (ML), in particular classification with deep neural nets, can be applied to a variety of industrial tasks. It can augment established methods for controlling manufacturing processes such as statistical process control (SPC) to detect non-obvious patterns in high-dimensional input data. However, due to the widespread issue of model miscalibration in neural networks, there is a need for estimating the predictive uncertainty of these models. Many established approaches for uncertainty estimation output scores that are difficult to put into actionable insight. We therefore introduce the concept of certainty groups which distinguish the predictions of a neural network into the normal group and the certainty group. The certainty group contains only predictions with a very high accuracy that can be set up to 100%. We present an approach to compute these certainty groups and demonstrate our approach on two datasets from a PHM setting.
机器学习(ML),特别是深度神经网络的分类,可以应用于各种工业任务。它可以增强现有的制造过程控制方法,如统计过程控制(SPC),以检测高维输入数据中的非明显模式。然而,由于神经网络中普遍存在模型误标定问题,因此需要对这些模型的预测不确定性进行估计。许多确定的不确定性估计方法输出的分数很难转化为可操作的洞察力。因此,我们引入确定性组的概念,将神经网络的预测分为正常组和确定性组。确定性组只包含具有非常高的准确度的预测,可以设置为100%。我们提出了一种计算这些确定性组的方法,并在PHM设置的两个数据集上演示了我们的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Long Horizon Anomaly Prediction in Multivariate Time Series with Causal Autoencoders 基于因果自编码器的多元时间序列长视界异常预测
Pub Date : 2022-06-29 DOI: 10.36001/phme.2022.v7i1.3367
M. Asres, G. Cummings, A. Khukhunaishvili, P. Parygin, S. Cooper, D. Yu, J. Dittmann, C. Omlin
Predictive maintenance is essential for complex industrial systems to foresee anomalies before major system faults or ultimate breakdown. However, the existing efforts on Industry 4.0 predictive monitoring are directed at semi-supervised anomaly detection with limited robustness for large systems, which are often accompanied by uncleaned and unlabeled data. We address the challenge of predicting anomalies through data-driven end-to-end deep learning models using early warning symptoms on multivariate time series sensor data. We introduce AnoP, a long multi-timestep anomaly prediction system based on unsupervised attention-based causal residual networks, to raise alerts for anomaly prevention. The experimental evaluation on large data sets from detector health monitoring of the Hadron Calorimeter of the CMS Experiment at LHC CERN demonstrates the promising efficacy of the proposed approach. AnoP predicted around 60% of the anomalies up to seven days ahead, and the majority of the missed anomalies are abnormalities with unpredictable noisy-like behavior. Moreover, it has discovered previously unknown anomalies in the calorimeter’s sensors.
对于复杂的工业系统来说,预测性维护在主要系统故障或最终故障之前预见异常是必不可少的。然而,工业4.0预测监测的现有工作主要针对半监督异常检测,对于大型系统的鲁棒性有限,这些系统通常伴随着未清理和未标记的数据。我们通过数据驱动的端到端深度学习模型,利用多变量时间序列传感器数据的早期预警症状,解决了预测异常的挑战。我们引入了一种基于无监督的基于注意的因果残差网络的长时间多步异常预测系统AnoP,以发出异常警报以预防异常。对欧洲核子研究中心LHC强子量热仪探测器健康监测大数据集的实验评估表明,该方法具有良好的效果。AnoP可以提前7天预测60%左右的异常,而大多数未被发现的异常都带有不可预测的噪音行为。此外,它还在热量计的传感器中发现了以前未知的异常。
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引用次数: 2
State of Health and Lifetime Prediction of Lithium-ion Batteries Using Self-learning Incremental Models 基于自学习增量模型的锂离子电池健康状态与寿命预测
Pub Date : 2022-06-29 DOI: 10.36001/phme.2022.v7i1.3323
M. Camargos, P. Angelov
Lithium-ion batteries are key energy storage elements in the context of environmental-aware energy systems representing a crucial technology to achieve the goal of zero carbon emission. Therefore, its conditions must be monitored to guarantee the safe and reliable operation of the systems that use these components. Furthermore, lithium-ion batteries’ prognostics and health management policies must cope with the nonlinear and time-varying nature of the complex electrochemical dynamics of battery degradation. This paper proposes an incremental-learning-based algorithm to estimate the State of Health (SoH) and the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries based on measurement data streams. For this purpose, a two-layer framework is proposed based on incremental modeling of the SoH. In the first layer, a set of representative features are extracted from voltage and current data of partial charging and discharging cycles; these features are then used to train the proposed model in a recursive procedure to estimate the battery’s SoH. The second layer uses the capacity data for incremental learning of an Autoregressive (AR) model for the SoH, which will be used to propagate the battery’s degradation through time to make the RUL prediction. The proposed method was applied to two datasets for experimental evaluation, one from CALCE and another from NASA. The proposed framework was able to estimate the SoH of 8 different lithium-ion cells with an average percentage error below 1.5% for all scenarios, while the lifetime model predicted the cell’s RUL with a maximum average error of 25%.
锂离子电池是环境意识能源系统中的关键储能元件,是实现零碳排放目标的关键技术。因此,必须对其状态进行监控,以保证使用这些组件的系统安全可靠地运行。此外,锂离子电池的预测和健康管理政策必须应对电池退化复杂电化学动力学的非线性和时变性质。提出了一种基于增量学习的基于测量数据流的锂离子电池健康状态(SoH)和剩余使用寿命(RUL)估计算法。为此,提出了一个基于SoH增量建模的两层框架。第一层从局部充放电周期的电压和电流数据中提取一组具有代表性的特征;然后使用这些特征在递归过程中训练所提出的模型来估计电池的SoH。第二层使用容量数据对SoH的自回归(AR)模型进行增量学习,该模型将用于传播电池随时间的退化以进行RUL预测。将该方法应用于两个数据集进行实验评估,一个来自CALCE,另一个来自NASA。所提出的框架能够在所有情况下估计8种不同锂离子电池的SoH,平均百分比误差低于1.5%,而寿命模型预测电池的RUL的最大平均误差为25%。
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引用次数: 1
Analysis of Vibrations and Currents for Broken Rotor Bar Detection in Three-phase Induction Motors 三相感应电动机转子断条检测的振动和电流分析
Pub Date : 2022-06-29 DOI: 10.36001/phme.2022.v7i1.3332
Zahra Taghiyarrenani, A. Berenji
Selecting the physical property capable of representing the health state of a machine is an important step in designing fault detection systems. In addition, variation of the loading condition is a challenge in deploying an industrial predictive maintenance solution. The robustness of the physical properties to variations in loading conditions is, therefore, an important consideration. In this paper, we focus specifically on squirrel cage induction motors and analyze the capabilities of three-phase current and five vibration signals acquired from different locations of the motor for the detection of Broken Rotor Bar generated in different loads. In particular, we examine the mentioned signals in relation to the performance of classifiers trained with them. Regarding the classifiers, we employ deep conventional classifiers and also propose a hybrid classifier that utilizes contrastive loss in order to mitigate the effect of different variations. The analysis shows that vibration signals are more robust under varying load conditions. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid classifier outperforms conventional classifiers and is able to achieve an accuracy of 90.96% when using current signals and 97.69% when using vibration signals.
选择能够表示机器健康状态的物理特性是设计故障检测系统的重要步骤。此外,负载条件的变化是部署工业预测性维护解决方案的一个挑战。因此,物理性能对载荷条件变化的鲁棒性是一个重要的考虑因素。本文以鼠笼式异步电动机为研究对象,分析了在不同负载下,利用三相电流和电机不同位置采集的五种振动信号检测转子断条的能力。特别地,我们检查了提到的信号与用它们训练的分类器的性能的关系。在分类器方面,我们采用了深度传统分类器,并提出了一种利用对比损失的混合分类器,以减轻不同变化的影响。分析表明,在不同载荷条件下,振动信号具有较强的鲁棒性。此外,本文提出的混合分类器优于传统的分类器,在使用电流信号和振动信号时,准确率分别达到90.96%和97.69%。
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引用次数: 1
Experimental Validation of Multi-fidelity Models for Prognostics of Electromechanical Actuators 机电执行器多保真度预测模型的实验验证
Pub Date : 2022-06-29 DOI: 10.36001/phme.2022.v7i1.3347
L. Baldo, P. Berri, M. D. Dalla Vedova, P. Maggiore
The growing adoption of electrical energy as a secondary form of onboard power leads to an increase of electromechanical actuators (EMAs) use in aerospace applications. Therefore, innovative prognostic and diagnostic methodologies are becoming a fundamental tool to early identify faults propagation, prevent performance degradation, and ensure an acceptable level of safety and reliability of the system. Furthermore, prognostics entails further advantages, including a better ability to plan the maintenance of the various equipment, manage the warehouse and maintenance personnel, and a reduction in system management costs.Frequently, such approaches require the development of typologies of numerical models capable of simulating the performance of the EMA with different levels of fidelity: monitoring models, suitably simplified to combine speed and accuracy with reduced computational costs, and high fidelity models (and high computational intensity), to generate databases, develop predictive algorithms and train machine learning surrogates. Because of this, the authors developed a high-fidelity multi-domain numerical model (HF) capable of accounting for a variety of physical phenomena and gradual failures in the EMA, as well as a low-fidelity counterpart (LF). This simplified model is derived by the HF and intended for monitoring applications. While maintaining a low computing cost, LF is fault sensitive and can simulate the system position, speed, and equivalent phase currents.These models have been validated using a dedicated EMA test bench, designed and implemented by authors. The HF model can simulate the operation of the actuator in nominal conditions as well as in the presence of incipient mechanical faults, such as a variation in friction and an increase of backlash in the reduction gearbox.Comparing the preliminary results highlights satisfactory consistency between the experimental test bench and the two numerical models proposed by the authors.
越来越多地采用电能作为机载动力的第二种形式,导致机电致动器(ema)在航空航天应用中的使用增加。因此,创新的预测和诊断方法正在成为早期识别故障传播,防止性能下降,并确保系统达到可接受的安全性和可靠性水平的基本工具。此外,预测带来了更多的优势,包括更好地计划各种设备的维护,管理仓库和维护人员,以及减少系统管理成本。通常,这种方法需要开发能够以不同保真度模拟EMA性能的数值模型类型:监测模型,适当简化以将速度和准确性与降低的计算成本相结合,以及高保真度模型(和高计算强度),以生成数据库,开发预测算法和训练机器学习替代品。因此,作者开发了一个高保真多域数值模型(HF),能够解释EMA中的各种物理现象和逐渐失效,以及一个低保真对应(LF)。这个简化模型是由高频导出的,用于监测应用。在保持较低的计算成本的同时,LF具有故障敏感性,可以模拟系统的位置、速度和等效相电流。这些模型已通过专门的EMA测试台进行验证,该测试台由作者设计和实现。高频模型可以模拟执行器在标称条件下的操作,以及在出现早期机械故障的情况下的操作,例如摩擦的变化和减速箱中隙隙的增加。初步结果对比表明,实验台架与作者提出的两种数值模型具有较好的一致性。
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引用次数: 3
Estimation of Wind Turbine Performance Degradation with Deep Neural Networks 基于深度神经网络的风力发电机性能退化估计
Pub Date : 2022-06-29 DOI: 10.36001/phme.2022.v7i1.3328
Manuel S. Mathew, S. Kandukuri, C. Omlin
In this paper, we estimate the age-related performance degradation of a wind turbine working under Norwegian environment, based on a deep neural network model. Ten years of high-resolution operational data from a 2 MW wind turbine were used for the analysis. Operational data of the turbine, between cut-in and rated wind velocities, were considered, which were pre-processed to eliminate outliers and noises. Based on the SHapley Additive exPlanations of a preliminary performance model, a benchmark performance model for the turbine was developed with deep neural networks. An efficiency index is proposed to gauge the agerelated performance degradation of the turbine, which compares measured performances of the turbine over the years with corresponding bench marked performance. On an average, the efficiency index of the turbine is found to decline by 0.64 percent annually, which is comparable with the degradation patterns reported under similar studies from the UK and the US.
在本文中,我们基于深度神经网络模型估计挪威环境下工作的风力涡轮机与年龄相关的性能退化。该分析使用了一台2兆瓦风力涡轮机10年来的高分辨率运行数据。考虑入路风速和额定风速之间的风机运行数据,对数据进行预处理,去除异常值和噪声。在初步性能模型SHapley加性解释的基础上,利用深度神经网络建立了水轮机基准性能模型。提出了一种衡量水轮机相关性能退化的效率指标,将水轮机多年来的实测性能与相应的基准性能进行比较。平均而言,涡轮机的效率指数每年下降0.64%,这与英国和美国类似研究报告的退化模式相当。
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引用次数: 7
Application of Machine Learning Methods to Predict the Quality of Electric Circuit Boards of a Production Line 机器学习方法在生产线电路板质量预测中的应用
Pub Date : 2022-06-29 DOI: 10.36001/phme.2022.v7i1.3372
Immo Schmidt, Lorenz Dingeldein, D. Hünemohr, Henrik Simon, Max Weigert
For the data challenge of the 2022 European PHM conference, data from a production line of electric circuit boards is provided to assess the quality of the produced components. The solution presented in this paper was elaborated to fulfill the data challenge objectives of predicting defects found in an automatic inspection at the end of the production line, predicting the result of a following human inspection and predicting the result of the repair of the defect components. Machine learning methods are used to accomplish the different prediction tasks. In order to build a reliable machine learning model, the steps of data preparation, feature engineering and model selection are performed. Finally, different models are chosen and implemented for the different sub-tasks. The prediction of defects in the automatic inspection is modeled with a multi-layer perceptron neural network, the prediction of human inspection is modeled using a random forest algorithm. For the prediction of human repair, a decision tree is implemented.
对于2022年欧洲PHM会议的数据挑战,提供了来自电路板生产线的数据,以评估所生产组件的质量。本文提出的解决方案是为了实现预测在生产线末端自动检查中发现的缺陷、预测后续人工检查的结果和预测缺陷部件修复的结果的数据挑战目标。机器学习方法用于完成不同的预测任务。为了建立可靠的机器学习模型,进行了数据准备、特征工程和模型选择等步骤。最后,针对不同的子任务选择并实现不同的模型。自动检测缺陷预测采用多层感知器神经网络建模,人工检测缺陷预测采用随机森林算法建模。对于人工修复的预测,采用决策树的方法。
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引用次数: 1
iVRIDA: intelligent Vehicle Running Instability Detection Algorithm for High-speed Rail Vehicles using Temporal Convolution Network – A Pilot Study 基于时间卷积网络的高速铁路车辆运行不稳定性智能检测算法——初步研究
Pub Date : 2022-06-29 DOI: 10.36001/phme.2022.v7i1.3344
R. Kulkarni, R. Giossi, Prapanpong Damsongsaeng, A. Qazizadeh, M. Berg
Intelligent fault identification of rail vehicles from onboard measurements is of utmost importance to reduce the operating and maintenance cost of high-speed vehicles. Early identification of vehicle faults responsible for an unsafe situation, such as the instable running of highspeed vehicles, is very important to ensure the safety of operating rail vehicles. However, this task is challenging because of the nonlinear dynamics associated with multiple subsystems of the rail vehicle. The task becomes more challenging with only accelerations recorded in the carbody where, nevertheless, sensor maintenance is significantly lower compared to axlebox accelerometers. This paper proposes a Temporal Convolution Network (TCN)-based intelligent fault detection algorithm to detect rail vehicle faults. In this investigation, the classifiers are trained and tested with the results of numerical simulations of a high-speed vehicle (200 km/h). The TCN based fault classification algorithm identifies the rail vehicle faults with 98.7% accuracy. The proposed method contributes towards digitalization of rail vehicle maintenance through condition-based and predictive maintenance.
基于车载测量的轨道车辆故障智能识别对于降低高速车辆的运行维护成本具有重要意义。早期识别导致高速车辆运行不稳定等不安全情况的车辆故障,对于确保轨道车辆的运行安全非常重要。然而,由于轨道车辆多子系统的非线性动力学特性,这一任务具有挑战性。如果只在车体上记录加速度,那么这项任务就变得更具挑战性,然而,与轴箱加速度计相比,传感器的维护成本要低得多。提出了一种基于时间卷积网络(TCN)的轨道车辆故障智能检测算法。在本研究中,分类器进行了训练,并与高速车辆(200公里/小时)的数值模拟结果进行了测试。基于TCN的故障分类算法对轨道车辆故障的识别准确率为98.7%。该方法通过基于状态和预测性的维修,为轨道车辆维修的数字化做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 1
Experimental Assessment of a Broadband Vibration and Acoustic Emission Sensor for Rotorcraft Transmission Monitoring 用于旋翼机传动监测的宽带振动声发射传感器的实验评估
Pub Date : 2022-06-29 DOI: 10.36001/phme.2022.v7i1.3368
C. Ruiz-Carcel, A. Starr, A. Francese
Modern rotorcrafts rely on Health and Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) to enhance their availability, reliability, and safety. In those systems, data related to the health of key mechanical components is acquired, in addition to typical flight condition history data such as speed and torque. Commercial HUM systems usually rely on vibration measurements to assess the condition of shafts, gears, and bearings; using techniques such as spectral analysis, harmonic analysis, vibration trend and others. Recent research has shown that acoustic emissions (AE) can be advantageous in the detection of mechanical faults, in particular detecting very early small defects on bearings and gears, providing extra time for maintenance planning. However, the addition of extra sensors adds complexity and weight to the HUMS system, which is undesirable. This research is an experimental study to assess the monitoring capabilities of a broadband sensor, able to cover both low frequency vibration components as well as ultrasonic events, hence combining the benefits of both in a single compact sensing unit. The experimental results obtained from an instrumented rig using healthy components as well as seeded faults show the ability of the sensor to detect high frequency events, and compares the performance of the sensor in the low frequency range with a commercial accelerometer.
现代旋翼机依靠健康和使用监测系统(HUMS)来提高其可用性、可靠性和安全性。在这些系统中,除了典型的飞行条件历史数据(如速度和扭矩)外,还可以获取与关键机械部件健康状况相关的数据。商用HUM系统通常依靠振动测量来评估轴、齿轮和轴承的状况;运用频谱分析、谐波分析、振动趋势分析等技术。最近的研究表明,声发射(AE)在检测机械故障方面是有利的,特别是在轴承和齿轮上检测非常早期的小缺陷,为维护计划提供额外的时间。然而,额外的传感器增加了HUMS系统的复杂性和重量,这是不可取的。本研究是一项实验性研究,旨在评估宽带传感器的监测能力,该传感器能够覆盖低频振动成分和超声波事件,从而将两者的优点结合在一个单一的紧凑型传感单元中。实验结果表明,该传感器具有检测高频事件的能力,并将其在低频范围内的性能与商用加速度计进行了比较。
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引用次数: 0
Data Driven Seal Wear Classifications using Acoustic Emissions and Artificial Neural Networks 基于声发射和人工神经网络的数据驱动密封磨损分类
Pub Date : 2022-06-29 DOI: 10.36001/phme.2022.v7i1.3327
N. Noori, V. Shanbhag, S. Kandukuri, R. Schlanbusch
The work presented in this paper is built on a series of experiments aiming to develop a data-driven and automated method for seal diagnostics using Acoustic Emission (AE) features. Seals in machineries operate in harsh conditions, and seal wear in hydraulic cylinders results in fluid leakage, and instability of the piston rod movement. Therefore, regular inspection of seals is required using automated approaches to improve productivity and to reduce unscheduled maintenance. In this study, we implemented a data-driven diagnostics approach which utilizes AE measurements along with light weight Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a classifier to investigate the performance and resources (hardware & software) required for implementing a real-time soft sensor unit for monitoring seal wear condition. We used a feedforward multilayer perceptron ANN (Scaled Conjugate Gradient- SCG algorithm) that is trained with the back propagation algorithm, which is a popular network architecture for a multitude of applications (automotive, oil and gas, electronics). We benchmark the developed method against previous work conducted based on Support Vector Machine (SVM), and we compare ANN performance in classifying the running condition of seals in hydraulic cylinders by applying it to both raw (full frequency spectrum) and down sampled frequency measurements. The experiments were performed at varying pressure conditions on a hydraulic test rig that can simulate fluid leakage conditions like that of hydraulic cylinders. The test cases were generated with seals of three different conditions (unworn, semi-worn, worn). From the AE spectrum, the frequency bands were identified with peak power and by heterodyning the signal. This technique results in 10X down sampling without losing the information of interest. Further, the signal was divided into smaller “snapshots” to facilitate rapid diagnosis. In these tests, the diagnosis was made on short-time windows, as low as 0.3 seconds in length. A general set of 16 time and frequency domain features were designed. Then a training set was developed using relevant set of features (4, 5, and 16 features). The data was used to train the ANN (70% training – 30% test & validation) and SVM (60 % training - 40% test and validation). Classification of down sampled measurements, both ANN and SVM were able to accurately classify the status irrespective of the pressure conditions, with an accuracy of ~99% with execution time less than seconds. Therefore, the proposed approach can be applied as part of an automated seal wear classification technique based on AE and ANN/SVM and can be used for real-time monitoring of seal wear in hydraulic cylinders.
本文介绍的工作建立在一系列实验的基础上,旨在开发一种数据驱动和自动化的方法,利用声发射(AE)特征进行密封诊断。机械中的密封件在恶劣的条件下运行,液压缸中的密封件磨损导致流体泄漏,活塞杆运动不稳定。因此,需要使用自动化方法定期检查密封,以提高生产率并减少计划外维护。在这项研究中,我们实施了一种数据驱动的诊断方法,该方法利用声发射测量以及轻量级人工神经网络(ANN)作为分类器来研究实现实时软传感器单元以监测密封磨损状况所需的性能和资源(硬件和软件)。我们使用了一个前馈多层感知器ANN(缩放共轭梯度- SCG算法),该算法是用反向传播算法训练的,这是一种流行的网络架构,适用于众多应用(汽车、石油和天然气、电子)。我们将开发的方法与之前基于支持向量机(SVM)的工作进行了基准测试,并通过将其应用于原始(全频谱)和下采样频率测量,比较了人工神经网络在液压缸密封件运行状态分类方面的性能。实验在可模拟液压缸等流体泄漏工况的液压试验台上进行。测试用例是用三种不同条件(未磨损、半磨损、磨损)的密封件生成的。从声发射谱上,利用峰值功率和外差法对信号进行了频段识别。这种技术可以在不丢失感兴趣的信息的情况下进行10倍的向下采样。此外,信号被分割成更小的“快照”,以方便快速诊断。在这些测试中,诊断是在短时间窗口,低至0.3秒的长度。设计了一套包含16个时域和频域特征的通用集。然后使用相关特征集(4,5和16个特征)开发训练集。这些数据被用来训练人工神经网络(70%训练- 30%测试和验证)和支持向量机(60%训练- 40%测试和验证)。对下采样测量值进行分类,无论压力条件如何,ANN和SVM都能准确地对状态进行分类,准确率达到99%,执行时间小于秒。因此,该方法可以作为基于声发射和神经网络/支持向量机的自动密封磨损分类技术的一部分,用于液压缸密封磨损的实时监测。
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引用次数: 0
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