Pub Date : 2022-11-01DOI: 10.1177/23477970221130144
Parisa Abbasian
Over the years, Iran’s approach to the Taliban has had ups and downs. Iran welcomed the United States’ 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and worked with the American forces to overthrow the Taliban. Nevertheless, it was not long before Iran adopted an utterly opposite policy by compromising with the Taliban and supplying it with political and military support. This article examines domestic and regional factors contributing to this dramatic change in Iran’s behaviour toward the Taliban. It provides an assessment of how Tehran’s threat perception of the US military presence across its borders, the rise of the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, the increasing Afghan drug trafficking, and the influx of refugees from Afghanistan to Iranian territory have prompted Tehran to pursue a different approach toward the Taliban. It also explains how Iran’s intention to sustain water supply from Afghanistan’s rivers to the eastern provinces of Iran and resume profitable trade with Afghanistan has acted as a catalyst in expanding Iran–Taliban relations. This article argues that Iran sees the Taliban as an agent to weaken the United States, prevent the spread of ISIS in Khorasan, and strengthen Iran’s influence in Central Asia. The article concludes that although the Taliban’s rise to power in Afghanistan poses challenges for Iran, the benefits it brings are such that it prevents Tehran from relinquishing ties with the Taliban.
{"title":"My Enemy’s Enemy: Iran’s Approach to the Re-emergence of the Taliban","authors":"Parisa Abbasian","doi":"10.1177/23477970221130144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221130144","url":null,"abstract":"Over the years, Iran’s approach to the Taliban has had ups and downs. Iran welcomed the United States’ 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and worked with the American forces to overthrow the Taliban. Nevertheless, it was not long before Iran adopted an utterly opposite policy by compromising with the Taliban and supplying it with political and military support. This article examines domestic and regional factors contributing to this dramatic change in Iran’s behaviour toward the Taliban. It provides an assessment of how Tehran’s threat perception of the US military presence across its borders, the rise of the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, the increasing Afghan drug trafficking, and the influx of refugees from Afghanistan to Iranian territory have prompted Tehran to pursue a different approach toward the Taliban. It also explains how Iran’s intention to sustain water supply from Afghanistan’s rivers to the eastern provinces of Iran and resume profitable trade with Afghanistan has acted as a catalyst in expanding Iran–Taliban relations. This article argues that Iran sees the Taliban as an agent to weaken the United States, prevent the spread of ISIS in Khorasan, and strengthen Iran’s influence in Central Asia. The article concludes that although the Taliban’s rise to power in Afghanistan poses challenges for Iran, the benefits it brings are such that it prevents Tehran from relinquishing ties with the Taliban.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":"9 1","pages":"493 - 512"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42485166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-30DOI: 10.1177/23477970221129909
Stephen P. Westcott
China has remained detached from the events in Afghanistan, generally playing a passive role during the US-led war in its neighbour and refusing to actively support any parties in the conflict. However, Beijing was prompt to embrace Taliban 2.0 as the new power in Kabul as Ashraf Ghani’s regime collapsed in the wake of the US withdrawal in August 2021. At first glance, this appears to be a shift in policy from China’s previous apathetic stance to actively taking the Taliban’s side. Yet, a closer look at China’s actions reveal that it has maintained a consistently narrow and pragmatic policy towards its neighbour since 2002. This article unpacks China’s remarkably consistent Afghanistan policy, identifying its basis in two primary interests: ensuring stability in its Xinjiang province and trade with Central Asia. As long as Beijing is able to secure the willing cooperation from the main parties within Afghanistan to securing these interests, it is indifferent as to who the authority in Kabul is.
{"title":"The Pragmatic Neighbour: China’s Afghanistan Policy 2001–2021","authors":"Stephen P. Westcott","doi":"10.1177/23477970221129909","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221129909","url":null,"abstract":"China has remained detached from the events in Afghanistan, generally playing a passive role during the US-led war in its neighbour and refusing to actively support any parties in the conflict. However, Beijing was prompt to embrace Taliban 2.0 as the new power in Kabul as Ashraf Ghani’s regime collapsed in the wake of the US withdrawal in August 2021. At first glance, this appears to be a shift in policy from China’s previous apathetic stance to actively taking the Taliban’s side. Yet, a closer look at China’s actions reveal that it has maintained a consistently narrow and pragmatic policy towards its neighbour since 2002. This article unpacks China’s remarkably consistent Afghanistan policy, identifying its basis in two primary interests: ensuring stability in its Xinjiang province and trade with Central Asia. As long as Beijing is able to secure the willing cooperation from the main parties within Afghanistan to securing these interests, it is indifferent as to who the authority in Kabul is.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":"9 1","pages":"446 - 461"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44422635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-30DOI: 10.1177/23477970221130654
B. Poornima
The Taliban’s capture of Kabul in 2021 has presented the neighbourhood and beyond with layers of challenges to deal with, particularly for the Persian Gulf. On the one hand, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members are concerned about the repercussions of the change of guard in Kabul vis-à-vis terrorism and refugee-related instability. On the other, the withdrawal of US forces has questioned their policy priorities, leading them to consider variegating their international partners for their security imperatives. The developing situation in Afghanistan can alter the geopolitical equations in the Persian Gulf. The growing importance that Qatar has received from the US and the Taliban due to its status as a mediator and Turkey’s entry using the Doha card are among the main influencing factors. The GCC governments neither praised nor criticised the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan. Their responses so far, though cautious and limited, have been pragmatic, putting their national interest first. However, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar will continue to be relevant in Afghan affairs either directly or indirectly through diplomatic and economic overtures as they realise that a stable Afghanistan is in the best interest of the GCC. Such moves are crucial to ensure the crisis does not spill over to the Gulf. Through its diplomatic, economic and religious clout, the GCC can catalyse the international community to devise a multi-pronged approach to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan.
{"title":"Reluctant or Pragmatic? The GCC’s Policy towards Taliban-Led Afghanistan","authors":"B. Poornima","doi":"10.1177/23477970221130654","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221130654","url":null,"abstract":"The Taliban’s capture of Kabul in 2021 has presented the neighbourhood and beyond with layers of challenges to deal with, particularly for the Persian Gulf. On the one hand, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members are concerned about the repercussions of the change of guard in Kabul vis-à-vis terrorism and refugee-related instability. On the other, the withdrawal of US forces has questioned their policy priorities, leading them to consider variegating their international partners for their security imperatives. The developing situation in Afghanistan can alter the geopolitical equations in the Persian Gulf. The growing importance that Qatar has received from the US and the Taliban due to its status as a mediator and Turkey’s entry using the Doha card are among the main influencing factors. The GCC governments neither praised nor criticised the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan. Their responses so far, though cautious and limited, have been pragmatic, putting their national interest first. However, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar will continue to be relevant in Afghan affairs either directly or indirectly through diplomatic and economic overtures as they realise that a stable Afghanistan is in the best interest of the GCC. Such moves are crucial to ensure the crisis does not spill over to the Gulf. Through its diplomatic, economic and religious clout, the GCC can catalyse the international community to devise a multi-pronged approach to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":"9 1","pages":"531 - 545"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46730543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-30DOI: 10.1177/23477970221129908
Charles J. Sullivan
This article analyses the geopolitical repercussions of America’s military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban’s seizure of power in 2021. Since the Afghan Taliban continue to disregard the principal terms of the 2020 Doha Agreement brokered by the United States, Afghanistan is descending into chaos. The Afghan Taliban is unable to provide ordinary Afghans with basic living necessities, lacks international recognition and must contend against other violent extremist organizations operating within the country. Thus far, the Central Asian republics (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) have exhibited varying responses to the Afghan Taliban’s takeover. While the ‘Stans’ are all anxious about the potential spread of radical Islam and a looming humanitarian crisis, the greater threat to Ashgabat, Tashkent and Dushanbe, as well as Bishkek and Nur-Sultan, lies with the United States pivoting away from Central Asia and the Russian Federation acquiring greater leverage over regional security issues.
{"title":"Afghanistan in Anarchy: America’s Withdrawal, Taliban Rule and Regional Implications for Central Asia","authors":"Charles J. Sullivan","doi":"10.1177/23477970221129908","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221129908","url":null,"abstract":"This article analyses the geopolitical repercussions of America’s military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban’s seizure of power in 2021. Since the Afghan Taliban continue to disregard the principal terms of the 2020 Doha Agreement brokered by the United States, Afghanistan is descending into chaos. The Afghan Taliban is unable to provide ordinary Afghans with basic living necessities, lacks international recognition and must contend against other violent extremist organizations operating within the country. Thus far, the Central Asian republics (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) have exhibited varying responses to the Afghan Taliban’s takeover. While the ‘Stans’ are all anxious about the potential spread of radical Islam and a looming humanitarian crisis, the greater threat to Ashgabat, Tashkent and Dushanbe, as well as Bishkek and Nur-Sultan, lies with the United States pivoting away from Central Asia and the Russian Federation acquiring greater leverage over regional security issues.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":"9 1","pages":"513 - 530"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43955659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Book review: Abdul Basit, Hostility: A Diplomat’s Diary on Pakistan-India Relations","authors":"M. Bhat","doi":"10.1177/23477970221098499","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221098499","url":null,"abstract":"Abdul Basit, Hostility: A Diplomat’s Diary on Pakistan-India Relations. HarperCollins, 2021, 331 pp (Hardback). ISBN: 978-93-5422-645-8.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":"9 1","pages":"349 - 352"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43949359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-29DOI: 10.1177/23477970221098477
Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy
The majority of the literature on causes and sustenance of the Kashmir conflict has disregarded a vital factor—that the conflict is multi-layered, meaning it is both internal and external in nature. Contemporary conflicts are often explained by the dominating theories of international relations or the new wars theories that deal with internal conflicts. The dominating theories of international Relations, that is, realism and liberalism, assign significance to state-centrism and external threats by overshadowing internal and domestic causal factors of the conflict. On the other hand, prominent new wars theories such as the greed and grievance theories focus on domestic and internal factors of the conflict while shelving the external causal factors. On their own, both theories fail to explain multi-layered conflicts. This article intends to provide a synchronous explanation of the external and domestic causes of the multi-layered conflict in Kashmir by using the theory of ontological security, that is, security of self-identity.
{"title":"Kashmir and Ontological Security: Re-evaluating the Role of Self-identities in a Multi- layered Conflict","authors":"Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy","doi":"10.1177/23477970221098477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221098477","url":null,"abstract":"The majority of the literature on causes and sustenance of the Kashmir conflict has disregarded a vital factor—that the conflict is multi-layered, meaning it is both internal and external in nature. Contemporary conflicts are often explained by the dominating theories of international relations or the new wars theories that deal with internal conflicts. The dominating theories of international Relations, that is, realism and liberalism, assign significance to state-centrism and external threats by overshadowing internal and domestic causal factors of the conflict. On the other hand, prominent new wars theories such as the greed and grievance theories focus on domestic and internal factors of the conflict while shelving the external causal factors. On their own, both theories fail to explain multi-layered conflicts. This article intends to provide a synchronous explanation of the external and domestic causes of the multi-layered conflict in Kashmir by using the theory of ontological security, that is, security of self-identity.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":"9 1","pages":"255 - 279"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49032785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-21DOI: 10.1177/23477970221098500
P. Hlavacek, David Šanc
The aim of this text was to evaluate Mongolian foreign policy by applying the hedging strategy. We have arrived at the conclusion that the way Mongolia strives to secure itself against insecurities and risks in the fast-changing environment of East Asia corresponds to main principles of the hedging strategy and in basic outlines that it is not different from procedures applied by countries in Southeast Asia. After 1990, Mongolians enrolled in the Non-Aligned Movement; they voluntarily enlisted their country in the nuclear-free zone and started to apply to a friendly relation policy towards powers in their neighbourhood. These are basically same methods copied by all ASEAN member states. In its foreign policy, Mongolia applies a full range of hedging options: both acceptance and rejection of China’s power. In the context of East and Southeast Asian smaller state strategies, we consider Mongolian efforts as a light form of hedging.
{"title":"Mongolian Hedging Strategy","authors":"P. Hlavacek, David Šanc","doi":"10.1177/23477970221098500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221098500","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this text was to evaluate Mongolian foreign policy by applying the hedging strategy. We have arrived at the conclusion that the way Mongolia strives to secure itself against insecurities and risks in the fast-changing environment of East Asia corresponds to main principles of the hedging strategy and in basic outlines that it is not different from procedures applied by countries in Southeast Asia. After 1990, Mongolians enrolled in the Non-Aligned Movement; they voluntarily enlisted their country in the nuclear-free zone and started to apply to a friendly relation policy towards powers in their neighbourhood. These are basically same methods copied by all ASEAN member states. In its foreign policy, Mongolia applies a full range of hedging options: both acceptance and rejection of China’s power. In the context of East and Southeast Asian smaller state strategies, we consider Mongolian efforts as a light form of hedging.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":"9 1","pages":"318 - 346"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48921239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Book review: Dilip Hiro, Cold War in the Islamic World: Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Struggle for Supremacy","authors":"T. A. Mir","doi":"10.1177/23477970221098505","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221098505","url":null,"abstract":"Dilip Hiro, Cold War in the Islamic World: Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Struggle for Supremacy. Hurst, 2020, pp. 432. (Paperback). ISBN: 9781787384088.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":"9 1","pages":"355 - 358"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46344564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-16DOI: 10.1177/23477970221099748
B. Poornima
State and non-state actors are increasingly using cyberspace as a platform to execute hybrid warfare. As multiple incidents in India have shown critical infrastructures, particularly nuclear infrastructures, have been lucrative targets of cyber-attacks. Considering India’s well-progressing civilian and military nuclear infrastructures, it is apposite to raise the question of how safe these nuclear infrastructures are from cyber threats. This article suggests that India’s nuclear infrastructures will remain exposed to cyber-attacks due to their strategic significance for India’s national security. These threats will continue to exploit the zero-day vulnerabilities in the cyber-physical systems of these infrastructures. Further, the article looks into the threat sources, consequences and mitigation strategies against cyber-attacks on nuclear infrastructures. In an attempt to explore mitigation strategies, the article discusses certain cyber-attack scenarios and the consequences on India’s nuclear infrastructures. The article concludes that while certain technological cyber-defence mechanisms are in place, there is a need for legislative and diplomatic measures for developing a comprehensive set of measures to deter cyber threats to India’s nuclear infrastructures.
{"title":"Cyber Threats and Nuclear Security in India","authors":"B. Poornima","doi":"10.1177/23477970221099748","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221099748","url":null,"abstract":"State and non-state actors are increasingly using cyberspace as a platform to execute hybrid warfare. As multiple incidents in India have shown critical infrastructures, particularly nuclear infrastructures, have been lucrative targets of cyber-attacks. Considering India’s well-progressing civilian and military nuclear infrastructures, it is apposite to raise the question of how safe these nuclear infrastructures are from cyber threats. This article suggests that India’s nuclear infrastructures will remain exposed to cyber-attacks due to their strategic significance for India’s national security. These threats will continue to exploit the zero-day vulnerabilities in the cyber-physical systems of these infrastructures. Further, the article looks into the threat sources, consequences and mitigation strategies against cyber-attacks on nuclear infrastructures. In an attempt to explore mitigation strategies, the article discusses certain cyber-attack scenarios and the consequences on India’s nuclear infrastructures. The article concludes that while certain technological cyber-defence mechanisms are in place, there is a need for legislative and diplomatic measures for developing a comprehensive set of measures to deter cyber threats to India’s nuclear infrastructures.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":"9 1","pages":"183 - 206"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48782361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-16DOI: 10.1177/23477970221098512
Kainan Chen
Md Saidul Islam and Edson Kieu, Climate Change and Food Security in Asia Pacific: Response and Resilience. Palgrave Macmillan, 2021, 240 pp., (hardback). ISBN: 9783030707521.
{"title":"Book review: Md Saidul Islam and Edson Kieu, Climate Change and Food Security in Asia Pacific: Response and Resilience","authors":"Kainan Chen","doi":"10.1177/23477970221098512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221098512","url":null,"abstract":"Md Saidul Islam and Edson Kieu, Climate Change and Food Security in Asia Pacific: Response and Resilience. Palgrave Macmillan, 2021, 240 pp., (hardback). ISBN: 9783030707521.","PeriodicalId":42502,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs","volume":"9 1","pages":"353 - 355"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47436086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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