The outbreak of the novel COVID-19 pandemic emerged as a major black swan event which has caused shock waves and severely hurt the sentiments of market participants. The pandemic has raised uncertainties and risks all over the world, impacting substantially the world's 20 largest economies. While the stock markets' intense reaction to the official news of the pandemic is well known, the reaction of largest world economies during the initial phases of the outbreak until 11th March 2020 is not very well established. Therefore, the present study investigates how stock markets in world's 20 largest economies have reacted to major events and press releases associated with disease from the beginning of the pandemic (i.e., 31st December 2020 till 11th March 2020). The results of the study suggest that the declaration of the novel COVID-19 as a pandemic was the most devastating event for stock markets. This was confirmed by using various parametric and non-parametric tests. In addition, the last event was further analyzed by observing CARs of various indices individually.
{"title":"Stock Market Responses to the COVID-19 Health Crisis","authors":"Abdul Wajid, Kanishka Gupta","doi":"10.4018/ijban.303114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4018/ijban.303114","url":null,"abstract":"The outbreak of the novel COVID-19 pandemic emerged as a major black swan event which has caused shock waves and severely hurt the sentiments of market participants. The pandemic has raised uncertainties and risks all over the world, impacting substantially the world's 20 largest economies. While the stock markets' intense reaction to the official news of the pandemic is well known, the reaction of largest world economies during the initial phases of the outbreak until 11th March 2020 is not very well established. Therefore, the present study investigates how stock markets in world's 20 largest economies have reacted to major events and press releases associated with disease from the beginning of the pandemic (i.e., 31st December 2020 till 11th March 2020). The results of the study suggest that the declaration of the novel COVID-19 as a pandemic was the most devastating event for stock markets. This was confirmed by using various parametric and non-parametric tests. In addition, the last event was further analyzed by observing CARs of various indices individually.","PeriodicalId":42590,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business Analytics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43204062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Buric, M. Raicevic, Ljiljana Kašćelan, Vladimir Kašćelan
Insufficiently developed financial system, poor standard of living and inappropriate education of citizens on the saving products, lead to low level of investment in the financial market of developing countries. In this paper special attention is paid to examining the socio-demographic profile of Montenegrin citizens that invest their funds in some of the offered form of savings, as well as examining main factors that restrict their investment. For this purpose, data collected through the survey of Montenegrin citizens were processed using Decision Tree method. Survey results have shown that there is a low level of savings, as well as that citizens prefer deposits and life insurance products rather than pension plans and debt securities. Also, the results indicate that the main causes of the current state of savings in Montenegro are low standard of living, citizens´ poor awareness and the financial system which causes the insufficiently attractive supply of savings.
{"title":"Socio-Demographic Impacts on the Personal Savings Portfolio Choice","authors":"M. Buric, M. Raicevic, Ljiljana Kašćelan, Vladimir Kašćelan","doi":"10.4018/ijban.288511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4018/ijban.288511","url":null,"abstract":"Insufficiently developed financial system, poor standard of living and inappropriate education of citizens on the saving products, lead to low level of investment in the financial market of developing countries. In this paper special attention is paid to examining the socio-demographic profile of Montenegrin citizens that invest their funds in some of the offered form of savings, as well as examining main factors that restrict their investment. For this purpose, data collected through the survey of Montenegrin citizens were processed using Decision Tree method. Survey results have shown that there is a low level of savings, as well as that citizens prefer deposits and life insurance products rather than pension plans and debt securities. Also, the results indicate that the main causes of the current state of savings in Montenegro are low standard of living, citizens´ poor awareness and the financial system which causes the insufficiently attractive supply of savings.","PeriodicalId":42590,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business Analytics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47856979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sipu Hou, Zongzhen Cai, Jiming Wu, Hongwei Du, Peng Xie
It is not easy for banks to sell their term-deposit products to new clients because many factors will affect customers’ purchasing decision and because banks may have difficulties to identify their target customers. To address this issue, we use different supervised machine learning algorithms to predict if a customer will subscribe a bank term deposit and then compare the performance of these prediction models. Specifically, the current paper employs these five algorithms: Naïve Bayes, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and Neural Network. This paper thus contributes to the artificial intelligence and Big Data field with an important evidence of the best performed model for predicting bank term deposit subscription.
{"title":"Applying Machine Learning to the Development of Prediction Models for Bank Deposit Subscription","authors":"Sipu Hou, Zongzhen Cai, Jiming Wu, Hongwei Du, Peng Xie","doi":"10.4018/ijban.288514","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4018/ijban.288514","url":null,"abstract":"It is not easy for banks to sell their term-deposit products to new clients because many factors will affect customers’ purchasing decision and because banks may have difficulties to identify their target customers. To address this issue, we use different supervised machine learning algorithms to predict if a customer will subscribe a bank term deposit and then compare the performance of these prediction models. Specifically, the current paper employs these five algorithms: Naïve Bayes, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and Neural Network. This paper thus contributes to the artificial intelligence and Big Data field with an important evidence of the best performed model for predicting bank term deposit subscription.","PeriodicalId":42590,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business Analytics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47370596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this study, the cost estimation to be used in the optimization of proposed order price offer is made by artificial neural network (ANN) method. A case study is performed by the real data of a company, and the forecast results of the traditional arithmetic model used by the company and the proposed ANN based method are compared and it is seen that the proposed method results outperform the other. The biggest contribution of this study to companies is to increase the company’s order management performance by helping the company to make more accurate pricing due to more accurate cost estimation. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study on forecasting preliminary order cost in the apparel industry and fills an important gap in the literature.
{"title":"Forecasting Preliminary Order Cost to Increase Order Management Performance","authors":"Tüzin Akçinar Günsari, A. Kaya, Y. Ekinci","doi":"10.4018/ijban.298015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4018/ijban.298015","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, the cost estimation to be used in the optimization of proposed order price offer is made by artificial neural network (ANN) method. A case study is performed by the real data of a company, and the forecast results of the traditional arithmetic model used by the company and the proposed ANN based method are compared and it is seen that the proposed method results outperform the other. The biggest contribution of this study to companies is to increase the company’s order management performance by helping the company to make more accurate pricing due to more accurate cost estimation. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study on forecasting preliminary order cost in the apparel industry and fills an important gap in the literature.","PeriodicalId":42590,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business Analytics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41871225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of the paper is to evaluate the impact of novel COVID-19 on the returns and volatility of Indian stock markets with special reference to equity investment strategies of Bombay Stock Exchange. For the purpose of evaluating the impact, the study has applied GARCH) The research has considered a time frame from March, 2015 to January, 2021. Prior to implementing GARCH model, pre-estimation tests i.e., Augmented Dickey-Fuller and ARCH-Lagrange Multiplier, were conducted. Outcomes clearly indicate that the returns during the crisis for all the strategy indices have been negative which means that the COVID-19 outbreak resulted in massive losses. Additionally, 'during crisis' period showed increase in volatility for all the strategy indices depicting that the pandemic has a long-lasting effect and will take time to fade off. This research will help the investors in the investment decision process by giving them insights about the different strategies.
{"title":"Volatility in Indian Stock Markets During COVID-19","authors":"K. Gupta, Seshanwita Das, Kanishka Gupta","doi":"10.4018/IJBAN.288512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4018/IJBAN.288512","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the paper is to evaluate the impact of novel COVID-19 on the returns and volatility of Indian stock markets with special reference to equity investment strategies of Bombay Stock Exchange. For the purpose of evaluating the impact, the study has applied GARCH) The research has considered a time frame from March, 2015 to January, 2021. Prior to implementing GARCH model, pre-estimation tests i.e., Augmented Dickey-Fuller and ARCH-Lagrange Multiplier, were conducted. Outcomes clearly indicate that the returns during the crisis for all the strategy indices have been negative which means that the COVID-19 outbreak resulted in massive losses. Additionally, 'during crisis' period showed increase in volatility for all the strategy indices depicting that the pandemic has a long-lasting effect and will take time to fade off. This research will help the investors in the investment decision process by giving them insights about the different strategies.","PeriodicalId":42590,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business Analytics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44365291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-26DOI: 10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-4-142-152
A. Szabaciuk
This essay evaluates the standpoint that the Roman Catholic Church has adopted regarding the European migrant crisis. Some countries feel a severe outfl ow of people due to mass labor migration; others must deal with the challenges as transit states, and others – enormous challenges generated by the infl ux of economic immigrants and refugees. The most popular theories of migration and public policies very often ignore the ethical component of migration. One of the entities that constantly emphasizes the humanitarian aspect of migration is the Holy See. Popes, beginning with Leo XIII, have repeatedly raised the issue of rights to a dignifi ed life and decent work, and if it is necessary also to migrate in search of a safe shelter and a better life. Pope Francis, like his predecessors, referring to the problem of migration, puts people fi rst. He emphasizes that all migration streams consist of individuals who deserve respect and care because we see in them the face of God. This paper concludes that the Church remains the signifi cant international body impartial amidst the growing European schism on the migrant issue.
{"title":"Religion Helps Migrants: Roman Catholic Church and the Migrant Crisis During the Pontificate of Pope Francis","authors":"A. Szabaciuk","doi":"10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-4-142-152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-4-142-152","url":null,"abstract":"This essay evaluates the standpoint that the Roman Catholic Church has adopted regarding the European migrant crisis. Some countries feel a severe outfl ow of people due to mass labor migration; others must deal with the challenges as transit states, and others – enormous challenges generated by the infl ux of economic immigrants and refugees. The most popular theories of migration and public policies very often ignore the ethical component of migration. One of the entities that constantly emphasizes the humanitarian aspect of migration is the Holy See. Popes, beginning with Leo XIII, have repeatedly raised the issue of rights to a dignifi ed life and decent work, and if it is necessary also to migrate in search of a safe shelter and a better life. Pope Francis, like his predecessors, referring to the problem of migration, puts people fi rst. He emphasizes that all migration streams consist of individuals who deserve respect and care because we see in them the face of God. This paper concludes that the Church remains the signifi cant international body impartial amidst the growing European schism on the migrant issue.","PeriodicalId":42590,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business Analytics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82828549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-26DOI: 10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-4-180-184
Okunev, Peter Lang
.
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{"title":"The Ultimate Handbook of Political Geography","authors":"Okunev, Peter Lang","doi":"10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-4-180-184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-4-180-184","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p>.</jats:p>","PeriodicalId":42590,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business Analytics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75329753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-26DOI: 10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-4-169-179
R. Reinhardt
Р.О. Райнхардт – доцент кафедры дипломатии МГИМО МИД России, специалист в области истории и теории дипломатии. Его основные научные интересы охватывают такие темы, как экономическая дипломатия, научная дипломатия, международное научнотехническое сотрудничество в контексте российской внешней политики, а также внешних связей ЕС. Окончил МГИМО МИД России. В 2016 г. получил ученую степень кандидата экономических наук.Беседу вел С.М. Маркедонов, главный редактор журнала «Международная аналитика»
{"title":"Rationalization and ‘Religization’ in the Modern Theory of International Relations.","authors":"R. Reinhardt","doi":"10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-4-169-179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-4-169-179","url":null,"abstract":"Р.О. Райнхардт – доцент кафедры дипломатии МГИМО МИД России, специалист в области истории и теории дипломатии. Его основные научные интересы охватывают такие темы, как экономическая дипломатия, научная дипломатия, международное научнотехническое сотрудничество в контексте российской внешней политики, а также внешних связей ЕС. Окончил МГИМО МИД России. В 2016 г. получил ученую степень кандидата экономических наук.Беседу вел С.М. Маркедонов, главный редактор журнала «Международная аналитика»","PeriodicalId":42590,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business Analytics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78735551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-26DOI: 10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-4-153-168
E. Shebalina
In this essay, the author made an attempt to study the origins, functions and vectors of papal diplomacy, focusing on its transformation in the conditions of the modern political system, to analyze the main social principles on which the foreign policy of the Holy See is based; to fi nd out what methods are used by the state to promote Christian moral values in global politics. Besides, studying numerous examples of mediation policy of the Vatican in international aff airs, the author has investigated the methods by which the theocratic monarchy, lacking signifi cant territorial and military resources, plays a signifi cant role in contemporary international relations. Papal diplomacy, as one of the fi rst in the world, has successfully adapted to the processes taking place in world politics. Based on the basic principles stemming from the Code of Canon Law and the Social Doctrine of the Roman Catholic Church, the Holy See participates in most of the international negotiation platforms where topical issues of world politics are raised.
{"title":"The Holy See’s Contemporary Foreign Policy: Origins, Methods, Instruments","authors":"E. Shebalina","doi":"10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-4-153-168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-4-153-168","url":null,"abstract":"In this essay, the author made an attempt to study the origins, functions and vectors of papal diplomacy, focusing on its transformation in the conditions of the modern political system, to analyze the main social principles on which the foreign policy of the Holy See is based; to fi nd out what methods are used by the state to promote Christian moral values in global politics. Besides, studying numerous examples of mediation policy of the Vatican in international aff airs, the author has investigated the methods by which the theocratic monarchy, lacking signifi cant territorial and military resources, plays a signifi cant role in contemporary international relations. Papal diplomacy, as one of the fi rst in the world, has successfully adapted to the processes taking place in world politics. Based on the basic principles stemming from the Code of Canon Law and the Social Doctrine of the Roman Catholic Church, the Holy See participates in most of the international negotiation platforms where topical issues of world politics are raised.","PeriodicalId":42590,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business Analytics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91257429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-26DOI: 10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-4-123-141
N. P. Shok, N. Belyakova
The article analyzes the cooperation of UN structures with religious non-governmental organizations, as well as with faith-based communities. The authors consider diff erent levels of the infl uence of the religious factor on the UN activity, and also articulate new directions of its development, outlined during the COVID-19 period. The authors focus on the latent semantic and structural confl ict nature of the global agenda, which is formulated by elites who recognize the “benefi ts” of religious institutions and seek to use the possibilities of religious networks, on the one hand. On the other hand, they point to internal disagreements characteristic of national religious communities, which, as a result of their participation in international dialogue, bring additional tension both to global discussions and to the internal processes of their countries. Global health, which has become an important part of international relations, puts on the agenda the search for a new ethic of global dialogue, of which religious values and religious actors are becoming a part. In the COVID-19 pandemic, trends have emerged that have made the role of religion more visible in the current global health and bioethics agenda. First of all, in connection with the threats of a global pandemic, the need to create new forms of global health management and response to epidemic threats, as well as the organization of a system of “assistance” to developing countries in the fi eld of public health.
{"title":"International Discussions on Religious Factor in Global Bioethics","authors":"N. P. Shok, N. Belyakova","doi":"10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-4-123-141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-4-123-141","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes the cooperation of UN structures with religious non-governmental organizations, as well as with faith-based communities. The authors consider diff erent levels of the infl uence of the religious factor on the UN activity, and also articulate new directions of its development, outlined during the COVID-19 period. The authors focus on the latent semantic and structural confl ict nature of the global agenda, which is formulated by elites who recognize the “benefi ts” of religious institutions and seek to use the possibilities of religious networks, on the one hand. On the other hand, they point to internal disagreements characteristic of national religious communities, which, as a result of their participation in international dialogue, bring additional tension both to global discussions and to the internal processes of their countries. Global health, which has become an important part of international relations, puts on the agenda the search for a new ethic of global dialogue, of which religious values and religious actors are becoming a part. In the COVID-19 pandemic, trends have emerged that have made the role of religion more visible in the current global health and bioethics agenda. First of all, in connection with the threats of a global pandemic, the need to create new forms of global health management and response to epidemic threats, as well as the organization of a system of “assistance” to developing countries in the fi eld of public health.","PeriodicalId":42590,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business Analytics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91077903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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