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Between Development, Growth and Survival: Some Current Features of Iran’s Model of Socio-Economic Development 在发展、增长与生存之间:伊朗社会经济发展模式的一些当前特征
IF 1.1 Q3 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-04-14 DOI: 10.46272/2587-8476-2023-14-1-72-91
N. Kozhanov
   In recent years, conservative forces in Iran have lambasted their moderate and pragmatic rivals for their inability to solve the country’s economic issues and improve the living standards of its populace. However, since Ebrahim Raisi won the presidential election in 2021, Iranian conservatives have had their own chance to tackle the country’s internal challenges, being the last of the political forces without direct influence on the economic decision-making system for a long time. Nevertheless, their failed attempts to foster economic growth under sanctions pressure may prove critical to the Islamic Republic. Not only the conservative part of the establishment but the entire political system may risk losing what remains of its credibility with the Iranian people, who could perceive it as incapable of eff ectively managing the economy. Furthermore, the government’s success in resolving the current socio-economic development issues is also pivotal to the political future of E. Raisi. His failure would deprive him of any opportunity to claim the post of the next supreme leader of Iran. Meanwhile, the accumulated structural problems of the Iranian economy and the external sanctions pressure can render achieving economic progress a daunting, if not insurmountable, task. This paper seeks to elucidate why there is signifi cant social tension in Iran, resulting in periodic outbursts of protest, and why the economic situation is deemed a crisis, despite the relative resilience of the Iranian economy to external and internal challenges, as well as the macroeconomic performance dynamics, which are not necessarily inferior to those of Iran’s regional neighbors. To answer this question, the paper analyzes the main economic challenges facing the country’s leadership and the extent to which the goals and priorities of the implemented “resistance economy” doctrine provide an adequate response to them. As a theoretical tool, the author employs the ideas of M. Todaro, A. Sen, S. Smith, J. Foster, and C. Handy, justifying the need for any state to transcend the simple parameters of economic growth in formulating its development strategy and think more comprehensively, focusing primarily on creating a social and economic environment that is comfortable for its citizens. As a result, the author concludes that the model of the Iranian economy that has been formed in an aggressive environment prioritizes the survival of the existing political system, approaching the issue of economic growth as secondary and failing to satisfy some popular needs beyond the basic ones. It is incapable of ensuring comprehensive sustainable socio-economic development, which over time leads to the accumulation of internal tension in Iranian society.
近年来,伊朗的保守势力一直在抨击温和派和务实的对手,因为他们无法解决国家的经济问题,也无法提高民众的生活水平。然而,自易卜拉欣·莱希(ibrahim Raisi)在2021年赢得总统选举以来,伊朗保守派有了自己的机会来解决该国的内部挑战,成为长期以来最后一支对经济决策体系没有直接影响的政治力量。然而,他们在制裁压力下促进经济增长的失败尝试可能对伊斯兰共和国至关重要。不仅是当权派的保守派,整个政治体系都有可能失去伊朗人民对其仅存的信任,因为伊朗人民可能会认为它没有能力有效管理经济。此外,政府在解决当前社会经济发展问题方面的成功也对E. Raisi的政治前途至关重要。他的失败将剥夺他获得伊朗下一任最高领袖职位的任何机会。与此同时,伊朗经济积累的结构性问题和外部制裁压力可能使实现经济进步成为一项艰巨的任务,即使不是不可克服的任务。本文试图阐明为什么伊朗存在严重的社会紧张局势,导致周期性的抗议爆发,以及为什么经济形势被视为危机,尽管伊朗经济对外部和内部挑战的相对弹性,以及宏观经济表现动态,这并不一定逊于伊朗的地区邻国。为了回答这个问题,本文分析了国家领导层面临的主要经济挑战,以及实施“抵抗经济”理论的目标和优先事项在多大程度上提供了适当的回应。作为一种理论工具,作者采用了M.托达罗、a .森、S.史密斯、J.福斯特和C.汉迪的观点,证明任何国家在制定其发展战略时都需要超越经济增长的简单参数,并进行更全面的思考,主要关注创造一个适合其公民的社会和经济环境。因此,作者的结论是,在激进的环境中形成的伊朗经济模式优先考虑现有政治制度的生存,将经济增长问题视为次要问题,未能满足基本需求之外的一些民众需求。它无法确保全面、可持续的社会经济发展,随着时间的推移,这会导致伊朗社会内部紧张局势的积累。
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引用次数: 0
The Efficiency of Sanctions Policy. The Case of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (1991- 2001). 制裁政策的效率。南斯拉夫联邦共和国案例(1991- 2001)。
IF 1.1 Q3 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-04-14 DOI: 10.46272/2587-8476-2023-14-1-123-137
E. Entina, A. Životić
   The issue of sanctions, which has acquired a new dimension in the contemporary era, has transformed from a subject area in International Law into an interdisciplinary one, and has been widely analyzed in political science, sociology, and other fi elds. The case of Yugoslavia, which represents one of the earliest examples of the application of sanctions as a means to modify not only international actions, but also a political regime, has formed, among other things in modern history, the increasingly popular phenomenon of “cancelling” a nation. Given the external similarity of the processes that took place in the former Yugoslavia, in which Belgrade was involved, and in the post-Soviet space, it is of undisputed interest. This article delves into the situation of the Yugoslav economy, its reaction to the regime of comprehensive restrictions, as well as the eff ects of the sanctions policy in a comparative relation to the situation in modern Russia and the anti-Russian sanctions regime.
制裁问题在当代具有了新的层面,已从国际法的一个学科领域转变为一个跨学科领域,并在政治学、社会学和其他领域得到了广泛的分析。南斯拉夫的例子是最早使用制裁作为不仅改变国际行动而且改变政治制度的手段的例子之一,在现代历史上,除其他外,形成了日益流行的“取消”一个国家的现象。鉴于在贝尔格莱德参与的前南斯拉夫境内发生的进程与在后苏联时期发生的进程在外部具有相似性,这是无可争议的。本文通过与现代俄罗斯和反俄制裁制度的比较,探讨了南斯拉夫的经济状况、对全面限制制度的反应以及制裁政策的影响。
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引用次数: 0
BRICS-Plus: the New Force in Global Governance “金砖+”:全球治理新力量
IF 1.1 Q3 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-04-14 DOI: 10.46272/2587-8476-2023-14-1-138-148
Yaroslav Lissovolik
   The global economy is currently experiencing unprecedented changes as the BRICS nations establish themselves as a signifi cant power center and a crucial factor in the transformation of the international economic framework. Following China’s chairmanship of BRICS, which culminated in the BRICS+ meetings with a diverse range of emerging market economies, these and other countries have expressed their desire to join the BRICS group. The expansion process was largely catalyzed by the openness exhibited by BRICS through the BRICS+ format. The main question at this juncture is how the BRICS+ format will develop and whether it can enhance the position of BRICS in the global arena and among the Global South. This paper explores some of the opportunities presented by the BRICS+ concept in the creation of new global governance, particularly through the establishment of platforms – including those in the real sector and fi nancial platforms aimed at promoting greater cooperation among the sovereign wealth funds and regional development banks of the Global South. Another critical area is the launch of a new reserve currency that could serve as the foundation for greater economic integration across the broad platform of the developing world.
当前,世界经济正经历着前所未有的变化,金砖国家正在成为重要的权力中心,成为国际经济格局变革的关键因素。在中国担任金砖国家主席国之后,这些国家和其他国家都表达了加入金砖国家集团的愿望,金砖国家与众多新兴市场经济体举行了“金砖+”会晤。金砖国家通过“金砖+”模式展现的开放性,在很大程度上促进了金砖合作的扩大。当前的主要问题是“金砖+”如何发展,能否提升金砖国家在国际舞台和全球南方国家中的地位。本文探讨了“金砖+”概念在创建新的全球治理方面所带来的一些机会,特别是通过建立平台——包括实体领域的平台和旨在促进主权财富基金和全球南方地区开发银行之间更大合作的金融平台。另一个关键领域是推出一种新的储备货币,它可以作为在发展中国家这个广泛平台上实现更大经济一体化的基础。
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引用次数: 1
Cyber Sanctions as a Tool of Competition in Global Cyberspace 网络制裁:全球网络空间竞争的工具
IF 1.1 Q3 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-04-14 DOI: 10.46272/2587-8476-2023-14-1-52-71
S. I. Balakhonova
   This paper delves into the issue of cyber sanctions as a novel tool in the context of the transforming global order and the fierce competition amongst great powers, which is gradually extending into cyberspace due to the growing role of information and communication technologies. The contours of geopolitical rivalry are refl ected in cyberspace, creating the potential for a quick transition from cyberspace to reality. The article investigates the risks posed by cyber-attacks, studies the nature of the contradictions between the norms of international law and cyber sanctions, carries out an analysis of the legal frameworks of the main initiating countries, and reviews the practice of imposing cyber sanctions. Following these eff orts, the conclusion was reached that cyber sanctions are traditional measures used to deter, limit, and punish malicious actions in cyberspace. An analysis of the legal bases of the main initiating countries revealed that the United States pursues its national interests, while the EU rather uses the tool to project its normative power. The cybersphere, amid this process of transforming the world order, creates opportunities for asymmetric wars and is used by states to compensate for geopolitical inequalities in the absence of rules governing behavior. The damage from a cyber-attack can be signifi cant both politically and economically. However, the consensus of the great powers on the development of common norms governing behavior in cyberspace is not possible in the short and medium term. This is due to the fact that the key initiating countries (the U.S. and the EU) are increasingly resorting to unilateral measures, while the main target states (Russia and China) appeal to the norms of international law. As the foundations of the neoliberal world order are being eroded, the antagonism of states will increase. Cyber sanctions do not oblige the initiator to provide evidence, give an accurate assessment of the damage, and do not entail the opposite eff ect per se, increasing only the image costs for opponents. Therefore, cyber sanctions are expected to become more widespread in the future.
本文探讨了网络制裁作为一种新的工具,在全球秩序转型和大国之间激烈竞争的背景下,由于信息和通信技术的作用日益增强,这种竞争逐渐延伸到网络空间。地缘政治竞争的轮廓反映在网络空间,创造了从网络空间到现实的快速过渡的潜力。本文考察了网络攻击带来的风险,研究了国际法准则与网络制裁之间的矛盾性质,分析了主要发起国的法律框架,并对实施网络制裁的实践进行了回顾。经过这些努力,得出的结论是,网络制裁是用于威慑、限制和惩罚网络空间恶意行为的传统措施。分析主要发起国的法律基础可以发现,美国追求的是其国家利益,而欧盟则更多地利用这一工具来投射其规范权力。在这个改变世界秩序的过程中,网络空间为不对称战争创造了机会,并被各国用来弥补在缺乏规范行为规则的情况下的地缘政治不平等。网络攻击造成的损害在政治上和经济上都是巨大的。然而,大国在网络空间共同行为规范的制定上达成共识在短期和中期是不可能的。这是因为主要发起国(美国和欧盟)越来越多地诉诸单边措施,而主要目标国(俄罗斯和中国)则诉诸国际法准则。随着新自由主义世界秩序的基础受到侵蚀,国家间的对抗将会加剧。网络制裁并不要求发起者提供证据,对损害进行准确评估,也不会产生相反的效果,只会增加对手的形象成本。因此,网络制裁预计将在未来变得更加普遍。
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引用次数: 0
Economic Development as a Method of Foreign Policy Risk Compensation: The Case of Armenia 经济发展作为外交政策风险补偿的一种方法:以亚美尼亚为例
IF 1.1 Q3 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-04-14 DOI: 10.46272/2587-8476-2023-14-1-92-110
N. A. Dunamalyan, V. Davtyan, A. A. Tavadyan
   Throughout a 35-year period, the Armenian economy has withstood numerous crises and political shocks, including the Spitak earthquake, the fi rst Karabakh war, a decline in GDP by over 50 %, transport blockades, and the 2008 economic crisis. The aftermath of the 2020 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh introduced new risks and drastically altered the country’s development and economic conditions. Despite the broader context of international confrontation, which has spilled over into military conflict in Ukraine, the Armenian economy has created possibilities for growth under geopolitical uncertainty. In the short-term perspective, these developments have had a positive impact on economic growth in 2022. However, the continuity of such impact on the Armenian economy depends on the government’s concrete approaches and further existence of current conditions. The article aims to explore the interrelationship between Armenia’s foreign policy and economy in the context of global and regional changes. The policy of the Armenian government is considered through the prism of the main features of the notion “small state,” with particular attention paid to the logic of changes in foreign policy throughout the entire period of independence. By utilizing large-scale statistical data, the article presents the causes of the radical growth of Armenia’s GDP in 2022 while simultaneously analyzing its structure. The development of the country’s energetic system is presented as an illustration of the establishment of a separate field that combines export possibilities, investment potential, and risk formation. The article also covers the reasons for the relative stability of the Armenian economy under the background threat of military escalation.
在35年的时间里,亚美尼亚经济经受住了许多危机和政治冲击,包括斯皮塔克地震、第一次卡拉巴赫战争、GDP下降超过50%、交通封锁和2008年的经济危机。2020年纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫44天战争的后果带来了新的风险,并彻底改变了该国的发展和经济状况。尽管国际对抗的大背景已经蔓延到乌克兰的军事冲突,但亚美尼亚经济在地缘政治不确定的情况下创造了增长的可能性。从短期来看,这些发展对2022年的经济增长产生了积极影响。然而,这种对亚美尼亚经济的影响能否持续取决于政府的具体做法和当前条件的进一步存在。本文旨在探讨亚美尼亚外交政策与经济在全球与区域变迁背景下的相互关系。亚美尼亚政府的政策是通过“小国”概念的主要特征来考虑的,特别关注整个独立时期外交政策变化的逻辑。本文利用大规模的统计数据,提出了2022年亚美尼亚GDP大幅增长的原因,并对其结构进行了分析。该国能源系统的发展是建立一个独立领域的例证,该领域结合了出口可能性、投资潜力和风险形成。本文还讨论了在军事升级威胁的背景下亚美尼亚经济相对稳定的原因。
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引用次数: 0
How to Study the Policy of Sanctions? The Vision of Empirical Research 如何研究制裁政策?实证研究的视野
IF 1.1 Q3 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.46272/2587-8476-2023-14-1-22-36
I. Timofeev
   Scholars worldwide have amassed a wealth of knowledge on the use of economic sanctions, relying on either the analysis of large datasets or the examination of particular cases. The extensive sanctions levied against Russia have spurred research into their implementation and impact among Russian scholars, necessitating impartial empirical research. This demand raises a number of epistemological questions, such as what the strategy for understanding sanctions empirically should be, how to handle data and its processing, and what implications the existing literature, both domestically and abroad, has for approaching empirical research on sanctions. The crux of the matter is the generation of quantitative datasets of multiple sanctions events and cases, which serves as an essential starting point for empirical research. This approach helps to differentiate between “normal” and “deviant” cases, thereby justifying further sampling of cases for in-depth qualitative analysis. The article vividly illustrates this point by relying on the author’s databases on sanctions events, U. S. government enforcement actions, and U.S. Congress legislation processes on sanctions.
世界各地的学者依靠对大型数据集的分析或对特定案例的研究,积累了大量关于经济制裁使用的知识。针对俄罗斯的广泛制裁促使俄罗斯学者对制裁的实施和影响进行研究,因此需要进行公正的实证研究。这一需求提出了许多认识论问题,例如,从经验上理解制裁的策略应该是什么,如何处理数据及其处理,以及国内外现有文献对制裁实证研究的影响。问题的关键是生成多个制裁事件和案例的定量数据集,这是实证研究的重要起点。这种方法有助于区分“正常”和“异常”案例,从而证明进一步取样案例进行深入定性分析是合理的。本文通过作者对制裁事件、美国政府执法行动和美国国会制裁立法程序的数据库,生动地说明了这一点。
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引用次数: 0
The Political-Economic Dialectic 政治经济辩证法
IF 1.1 Q3 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-04-12 DOI: 10.46272/2587-8476-2023-14-1-7-8
S. Markedonov
.
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引用次数: 0
It's Not the Economy, Stupid. Or the Nonlinear Effects of Sanctions 不是经济的问题,笨蛋。或者制裁的非线性效应
IF 1.1 Q3 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-04-12 DOI: 10.46272/2587-8476-2023-14-1-14-21
A. Likhacheva
The conversation was conducted by S. M. Markedonov, editor-in-chief of the journal "International Analytics"
这次对话是由《国际分析》杂志的主编s.m. Markedonov主持的。
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引用次数: 0
Political Economy and International Relations 政治经济学和国际关系
IF 1.1 Q3 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-04-12 DOI: 10.46272/2587-8476-2023-14-1-9-13
E. Arapova, N. Yurova
.
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引用次数: 0
Generational Cohorts' Reactions 代际群体的反应
IF 1.1 Q3 Business, Management and Accounting Pub Date : 2023-03-03 DOI: 10.4018/ijban.318668
S. Pattuglia, Sara Amoroso
The purpose of this study is to better understand the consumer behaviour, analysing the impact of brand authenticity on two main behavioural outcomes. The research aims also at finding out the behavioural differences of each generational cohort and to understand the effects on consumers' willingness to pay a premium price and on brand loyalty in the case of technological brands. The study follows a quantitative research design and uses a survey as a tool to collect data. The present work may suggest firms to be more targeted in their approach to create competitive advantage and strong relationships with their audiences. In present times, academics and practitioners must therefore recognize and take into consideration the differences across generational cohorts when studying and developing new marketing strategies.
本研究的目的是更好地理解消费者行为,分析品牌真实性对两种主要行为结果的影响。该研究还旨在找出每一代人的行为差异,并了解科技品牌对消费者支付溢价意愿和品牌忠诚度的影响。该研究采用了定量研究设计,并将调查作为收集数据的工具。目前的工作可能建议公司在创造竞争优势和与受众建立牢固关系的方法上更有针对性。因此,在当今时代,学者和从业者在研究和制定新的营销策略时,必须认识到并考虑到代际群体之间的差异。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Business Analytics
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