Purpose: The paper discusses the role and importance of smart governance as a modern form of urban development, identifies the key determinants of smart governance, analyzes models, evaluation and measurement indicators in smart and sustainable cities, and ranks 127 Croatian cities, regardless of city size. Methodology: A comprehensive database was prepared for the preparation of the study, including ten indicators of key smart governance determinants related to political participation of citizens, delivery of quality services to citizens, and sustainable functioning of city administration, in line with a review of models and indicators from previous studies. Results: The main goal of this research is to determine a correlation between the size of the city according to the number of inhabitants and statistically significant indicators of smart governance and, based on the value of the correlation coefficients, to determine the weights for the indicators in the process of city ranking. By aggregating the weighted z-scores, the Smart Governance Index was created for all Croatian cities and that index is not related to the size of a city. Conclusion: Statistically significant indicators for the formation of the Smart Governance Index for 127 cities in Croatia are the indicators of political participation and sustainable functioning of city administration. It is necessary to include as many indicators as possible in the future period so that the ranking results are as relevant as possible.
{"title":"Development of smart governance in Croatian cities - the size of a city as a determinant of smart governance","authors":"A. Babic, Danijela Sokolic, Jelena Jardas Antonić","doi":"10.51680/ev.35.2.7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.51680/ev.35.2.7","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: The paper discusses the role and importance of smart governance as a modern form of urban development, identifies the key determinants of smart governance, analyzes models, evaluation and measurement indicators in smart and sustainable cities, and ranks 127 Croatian cities, regardless of city size. Methodology: A comprehensive database was prepared for the preparation of the study, including ten indicators of key smart governance determinants related to political participation of citizens, delivery of quality services to citizens, and sustainable functioning of city administration, in line with a review of models and indicators from previous studies. Results: The main goal of this research is to determine a correlation between the size of the city according to the number of inhabitants and statistically significant indicators of smart governance and, based on the value of the correlation coefficients, to determine the weights for the indicators in the process of city ranking. By aggregating the weighted z-scores, the Smart Governance Index was created for all Croatian cities and that index is not related to the size of a city. Conclusion: Statistically significant indicators for the formation of the Smart Governance Index for 127 cities in Croatia are the indicators of political participation and sustainable functioning of city administration. It is necessary to include as many indicators as possible in the future period so that the ranking results are as relevant as possible.","PeriodicalId":42693,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomski Vjesnik","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70670645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose: Development opportunities of higher education institutions (HEI) arising from international activities are constantly evolving, increasing at the same time their complexity. Consequently, numerous activities have been created to connect different higher education institutions across Europe, where the biggest challenge of internationalisation today is the European Universities Initiative. In that context, it is important to measure whether the European Union initiative created better resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methodology: Empirical analysis was conducted that included international students who studied at UNIST for one semester during the pandemic. The following descriptive statistics methods were used for data analysis: percentages, mean, frequency distribution, the standard deviation correlation method, as well as the independent-samples t-test and the correlation method. Results: The results show that from the perspective of international students, there is a positive relationship between perceived service quality and internationalisation during the COVID-19 pandemic period. A case study was presented on the internationalisation of the University of Split as one of the first universities that joined the European Universities Initiative. Conclusion: Internationalisation is one of the keys to success if the perceived quality of higher education can be considered as a key to student satisfaction.
{"title":"The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on international students’ perception of\u0000service quality (Case study of the University of Split)","authors":"I. Jadrić, Đurđica Miletić, Ana Čosić","doi":"10.51680/ev.35.1.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.51680/ev.35.1.14","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: Development opportunities of higher education institutions (HEI) arising from international activities are constantly evolving, increasing at the same time their complexity. Consequently, numerous activities have been created to connect different higher education institutions across Europe, where the biggest challenge of internationalisation today is the European Universities Initiative. In that context, it is important to measure whether the European Union initiative created better resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methodology: Empirical analysis was conducted that included international students who studied at UNIST for one semester during the pandemic. The following descriptive statistics methods were used for data analysis: percentages, mean, frequency distribution, the standard deviation correlation method, as well as the independent-samples t-test and the correlation method. Results: The results show that from the perspective of international students, there is a positive relationship between perceived service quality and internationalisation during the COVID-19 pandemic period. A case study was presented on the internationalisation of the University of Split as one of the first universities that joined the European Universities Initiative. Conclusion: Internationalisation is one of the keys to success if the perceived quality of higher education can be considered as a key to student satisfaction.","PeriodicalId":42693,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomski Vjesnik","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70669076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose: At global and national level, the COVID-19 pandemic is influencing the public to increasingly speak of and recognize the importance of preserving the healthcare system. In addition to the solutions found in the formation of new healthcare policies, legal regulations, the role of the director is increasingly recognized, which is important for achieving goals and success as well as for preserving the healthcare system. Methodology: The study involved 27 respondents, i.e. directors of healthcare institutions at the primary level in the Republic of Croatia. All collected data were processed using the IBM SPSS Statistics statistical software. Results: Research results and the theoretical framework of the paper will present the factors influencing the management process of directors in the health system and the importance of the need to revise legislation and the education system aimed at ensuring the sustainability of public health. Conclusion: The paper will present which competencies of directors of healthcare institutions are crucial for crisis management during the COVID-19 pandemic.
{"title":"Efficiency of management competencies of directors during the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"I. Stanič, Silvija Hinek, Ksenija Lukić","doi":"10.51680/ev.35.1.15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.51680/ev.35.1.15","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: At global and national level, the COVID-19 pandemic is influencing the public to increasingly speak of and recognize the importance of preserving the healthcare system. In addition to the solutions found in the formation of new healthcare policies, legal regulations, the role of the director is increasingly recognized, which is important for achieving goals and success as well as for preserving the healthcare system. Methodology: The study involved 27 respondents, i.e. directors of healthcare institutions at the primary level in the Republic of Croatia. All collected data were processed using the IBM SPSS Statistics statistical software. Results: Research results and the theoretical framework of the paper will present the factors influencing the management process of directors in the health system and the importance of the need to revise legislation and the education system aimed at ensuring the sustainability of public health. Conclusion: The paper will present which competencies of directors of healthcare institutions are crucial for crisis management during the COVID-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":42693,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomski Vjesnik","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70668708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose: The aim of this study is to point out the impact of geopolitical risk on climate change. The CO2 emissions per capita is used as a proxy for climate change. Methodology: In this study, the data sample covers annual data from 1990 to 2015 for 12 selected Latin American and Asian countries. After standard preliminary tests (Cross-sectional dependence tests, CIPS unit root test, and slope homogeneity test), we employ the second-generation estimator – the AMG (Augmented Mean Group) method to explore the long-run relationship between geopolitical risk and CO2 emissions per capita. Results: The AMG findings document that a 1% rise in geopolitical risk escalates CO2 emissions per capita by 0.001%. In addition, economic growth and fossil energy consumption foster CO2 emissions per capita, whereas renewable energy contributes to decreasing CO2 emissions per capita. Conclusion: In recent years, scholars have attempted to explore the impact of geopolitical risk on environmental degradation. According to our results, in Latin American and Asian countries, decreasing geopolitical risk and conflict can impede environmental degradation. In the long run, a robust clean energy policy should be considered in case of geopolitical conflict by the government. Besides, the government should focus on renewable energy policy and substitute non-renewable energy resources with more technology-intensive resources.
目的:本研究的目的是指出地缘政治风险对气候变化的影响。人均二氧化碳排放量被用作气候变化的指标。在本研究中，数据样本涵盖了12个选定的拉丁美洲和亚洲国家1990年至2015年的年度数据。经过标准的初步检验(横断面相关性检验、CIPS单位根检验和斜率均匀性检验)，我们采用第二代估计器——AMG (Augmented Mean Group)方法来探讨地缘政治风险与人均二氧化碳排放量之间的长期关系。结果:AMG的研究结果表明，地缘政治风险每上升1%，人均二氧化碳排放量就会上升0.001%。此外，经济增长和化石能源消费促进人均二氧化碳排放量，而可再生能源有助于减少人均二氧化碳排放量。结论:近年来，学者们试图探讨地缘政治风险对环境退化的影响。根据我们的研究结果，在拉丁美洲和亚洲国家，减少地缘政治风险和冲突可以阻止环境退化。从长远来看，如果发生地缘政治冲突，政府应该考虑制定强有力的清洁能源政策。此外，政府应该关注可再生能源政策，用更多的技术密集型资源替代不可再生能源。
{"title":"Is there any relationship between geopolitical risk and climate change?","authors":"Orhan Cengiz, M. Manga","doi":"10.51680/ev.35.1.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.51680/ev.35.1.8","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: The aim of this study is to point out the impact of geopolitical risk on climate change. The CO2 emissions per capita is used as a proxy for climate change. Methodology: In this study, the data sample covers annual data from 1990 to 2015 for 12 selected Latin American and Asian countries. After standard preliminary tests (Cross-sectional dependence tests, CIPS unit root test, and slope homogeneity test), we employ the second-generation estimator – the AMG (Augmented Mean Group) method to explore the long-run relationship between geopolitical risk and CO2 emissions per capita. Results: The AMG findings document that a 1% rise in geopolitical risk escalates CO2 emissions per capita by 0.001%. In addition, economic growth and fossil energy consumption foster CO2 emissions per capita, whereas renewable energy contributes to decreasing CO2 emissions per capita. Conclusion: In recent years, scholars have attempted to explore the impact of geopolitical risk on environmental degradation. According to our results, in Latin American and Asian countries, decreasing geopolitical risk and conflict can impede environmental degradation. In the long run, a robust clean energy policy should be considered in case of geopolitical conflict by the government. Besides, the government should focus on renewable energy policy and substitute non-renewable energy resources with more technology-intensive resources.","PeriodicalId":42693,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomski Vjesnik","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70668813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
B. Knežević, Miroslav Mandić, Antonija Lipovac Tolić
Purpose: The main goal of this paper’s research was to determine the role and justification of surveying supplier satisfaction in building partnerships. Methodology: To collect primary data, qualitative research was used, which was conducted in several phases. The study tested nine key criteria modelled on the work of Vos et al. (2016). The sample of key suppliers was determined from a non-probability sample of experts from eight strategic suppliers who agreed to participate in the research. A qualitative approach was used due to the small sample and the desire to apply a different approach since the authors used a quantitative approach in most of the analysed papers. Results: Research has shown that the key criteria for supplier satisfaction are reliability, communication, and operative excellence of the customer they work with. Conclusion: Any long-term and successful business relationship implies the satisfaction of all parties in the relationship. The concept of supplier satisfaction research is a business practice of a modest number of companies. Despite this, the research participants confirmed that there are solid arguments and interest in introducing this type of research and its continuous implementation. The recommendation is the systematic introduction of supplier relationship management and, as part of that, the introduction of the practice of conducting supplier satisfaction surveys.
{"title":"The role of supplier satisfaction survey in building partnerships","authors":"B. Knežević, Miroslav Mandić, Antonija Lipovac Tolić","doi":"10.51680/ev.35.2.9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.51680/ev.35.2.9","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: The main goal of this paper’s research was to determine the role and justification of surveying supplier satisfaction in building partnerships. Methodology: To collect primary data, qualitative research was used, which was conducted in several phases. The study tested nine key criteria modelled on the work of Vos et al. (2016). The sample of key suppliers was determined from a non-probability sample of experts from eight strategic suppliers who agreed to participate in the research. A qualitative approach was used due to the small sample and the desire to apply a different approach since the authors used a quantitative approach in most of the analysed papers. Results: Research has shown that the key criteria for supplier satisfaction are reliability, communication, and operative excellence of the customer they work with. Conclusion: Any long-term and successful business relationship implies the satisfaction of all parties in the relationship. The concept of supplier satisfaction research is a business practice of a modest number of companies. Despite this, the research participants confirmed that there are solid arguments and interest in introducing this type of research and its continuous implementation. The recommendation is the systematic introduction of supplier relationship management and, as part of that, the introduction of the practice of conducting supplier satisfaction surveys.","PeriodicalId":42693,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomski Vjesnik","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70670310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose: Migrations are a complex economic variable that is highly influenced by conditions such as social, societal, economic, political, environmental, and the like. The preferences of the population vary and in accordance with their own needs, the population decides to migrate. Many economies of the world are facing the problem of out-migration of the young population. Moreover, the elderly population is increasing as a percentage of the total population. The aim of this research is to show the gender and age structure of the population, the state of migration and the impact on the economic growth in the Republic of Croatia. Methodology: Data on the population structure and migration in the Republic of Croatia are analyzed for the period 2004-2019. Results: The research conducted suggests that the population of the Republic of Croatia is facing a large outflow of young people and a decline in the birth rate. Conclusion: In the Republic of Croatia, the age structure of the population follows global trends, which means that there is a larger proportion of the elderly population. Such changes have serious consequences for sustainable economic growth for any country, including the Republic of Croatia.
{"title":"Impact of migration and population aging on economic growth in the Republic of Croatia","authors":"Vesna Buterin, Barbara Fajdetić, Martina Mrvčić","doi":"10.51680/ev.35.1.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.51680/ev.35.1.12","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: Migrations are a complex economic variable that is highly influenced by conditions such as social, societal, economic, political, environmental, and the like. The preferences of the population vary and in accordance with their own needs, the population decides to migrate. Many economies of the world are facing the problem of out-migration of the young population. Moreover, the elderly population is increasing as a percentage of the total population. The aim of this research is to show the gender and age structure of the population, the state of migration and the impact on the economic growth in the Republic of Croatia. Methodology: Data on the population structure and migration in the Republic of Croatia are analyzed for the period 2004-2019. Results: The research conducted suggests that the population of the Republic of Croatia is facing a large outflow of young people and a decline in the birth rate. Conclusion: In the Republic of Croatia, the age structure of the population follows global trends, which means that there is a larger proportion of the elderly population. Such changes have serious consequences for sustainable economic growth for any country, including the Republic of Croatia.","PeriodicalId":42693,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomski Vjesnik","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70668469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose: This research integrates the perceived risk theory and the technology acceptance model to identify the consumer’s perception of risk toward electronic banking services. The main purpose of this research is to see how consumers perceive risk and its dimensions in creating attitudes and continuing to use electronic banking services. Methodology: To assess and measure customer perception, a questionnaire was adapted and distributed at branches of banks in Prishtina, which distributed the questionnaire to their customers. The confirmatory factor analysis and the regression analysis were performed in this study. Results: From the data obtained we can conclude that, compared to the risk components, the perception of benefits has a greater impact on consumer decision-making when using electronic banking services. Conclusion: This research has some implications. In theoretical terms, the findings provide a detailed perspective on the impact of risk components and benefits on attitudes and intention to use e-banking services. Whereas on the practical level, it provides recommendations for managers of commercial banks in Kosovo to create strategies and mechanisms aiming to increase security levels and consequently maximize customer trust in e-banking services.
{"title":"Consumer evaluations of e-services","authors":"Besim Beqaj, Granit Baca","doi":"10.51680/ev.35.1.9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.51680/ev.35.1.9","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: This research integrates the perceived risk theory and the technology acceptance model to identify the consumer’s perception of risk toward electronic banking services. The main purpose of this research is to see how consumers perceive risk and its dimensions in creating attitudes and continuing to use electronic banking services. Methodology: To assess and measure customer perception, a questionnaire was adapted and distributed at branches of banks in Prishtina, which distributed the questionnaire to their customers. The confirmatory factor analysis and the regression analysis were performed in this study. Results: From the data obtained we can conclude that, compared to the risk components, the perception of benefits has a greater impact on consumer decision-making when using electronic banking services. Conclusion: This research has some implications. In theoretical terms, the findings provide a detailed perspective on the impact of risk components and benefits on attitudes and intention to use e-banking services. Whereas on the practical level, it provides recommendations for managers of commercial banks in Kosovo to create strategies and mechanisms aiming to increase security levels and consequently maximize customer trust in e-banking services.","PeriodicalId":42693,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomski Vjesnik","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70668867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose: Financial banking intermediaries are sensitive to changes in market interest rates. The volatility of market interest rates affects the level of bank net interest income and determines the bank interest rate policy. Banks are actively managing structural interest rate risks to mitigate the negative effects of changes in market interest rates. The post-crisis period is characterised by unconventional monetary policy, and one of the basic objectives of the monetary instrument is a negative interest rate policy. This paper researches the effects on the bank net interest income structure with an impact on bank performance indicators. The basic research hypothesis is that during the financial crisis and a negative interest rate policy, the movement of bank interest income does not converge compared to a bank interest expense. Methodology: According to the characteristics of the dataset, which includes 32 listed banks from Great Britain, Switzerland and the European Union for the period 2002-2019, panel data analysis is applied. To analyse the effect of the interest rate level on total interest income and total interest expense, we formed two models. Fixed-effects models were used for parameter estimation. Results: A bank interest expense is more sensitive to unconventional macroeconomic policy than bank interest income. Conclusion: The traditional interest earning customer related business can enable banks to stabilise the bank performance indicator during market disruption.
{"title":"The pass-through effect of unconventional monetary policy to net interest income\u0000structure of European banks","authors":"Roberto Ercegovac, Ante Tolj, Damir Piplica","doi":"10.51680/ev.35.1.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.51680/ev.35.1.4","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: Financial banking intermediaries are sensitive to changes in market interest rates. The volatility of market interest rates affects the level of bank net interest income and determines the bank interest rate policy. Banks are actively managing structural interest rate risks to mitigate the negative effects of changes in market interest rates. The post-crisis period is characterised by unconventional monetary policy, and one of the basic objectives of the monetary instrument is a negative interest rate policy. This paper researches the effects on the bank net interest income structure with an impact on bank performance indicators. The basic research hypothesis is that during the financial crisis and a negative interest rate policy, the movement of bank interest income does not converge compared to a bank interest expense. Methodology: According to the characteristics of the dataset, which includes 32 listed banks from Great Britain, Switzerland and the European Union for the period 2002-2019, panel data analysis is applied. To analyse the effect of the interest rate level on total interest income and total interest expense, we formed two models. Fixed-effects models were used for parameter estimation. Results: A bank interest expense is more sensitive to unconventional macroeconomic policy than bank interest income. Conclusion: The traditional interest earning customer related business can enable banks to stabilise the bank performance indicator during market disruption.","PeriodicalId":42693,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomski Vjesnik","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70669139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose: The current environment of globally interconnected supply chains and the dynamics of changes and potential threats significantly reduce the time for a possible response. At the same time, there is a growing demand for information necessary to mitigate the consequences. To minimise the damage and increase the resilience of supply chains, it is necessary to identify sources of threats promptly, the extent of possible damage and the possibility of preventing or minimising their impact. The aim of the paper is to structure supply chain threats and search for appropriate datasets. Methodology: The paper analyses the state-of-the-art through a comprehensive literature review and demonstrates secondary data about how free-access business data can be used as Early Warning Signals to forecast supply chain disruptive events, with a particular focus on international maritime transportation. Results: It was confirmed that companies can access many open datasets, and collecting and aggregating these data can improve their preparedness for future disruptive events. As the most important issue, the authors defined the selection of proper datasets and interpreting results with foresight. Conclusions: Identifying and analysing the relevant Early Warning Signals by companies to prevent supply chain disruptions are essential for keeping their supply chains sustainable and their resilience on a sufficient level. It was proved that general business indicators (PMI delivery time, container capacity, inflation rate, etc.) can help to signal the increasing possibility of maritime traffic problems in ports and container unavailability as usual supply chain disruption types in recent years. Therefore, the companies in the supply chains need to find, collect and analyse the appropriate data, which are, in some cases, free and available. However, it is a substantial task for data analysts to identify the most relevant data and work out the analytical methodology which can be applied as Early Warning Systems (EWS).
{"title":"Increase supply chain resilience by applying early warning signals within big-data analysis","authors":"J. Nagy, P. Foltin","doi":"10.51680/ev.35.2.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.51680/ev.35.2.17","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: The current environment of globally interconnected supply chains and the dynamics of changes and potential threats significantly reduce the time for a possible response. At the same time, there is a growing demand for information necessary to mitigate the consequences. To minimise the damage and increase the resilience of supply chains, it is necessary to identify sources of threats promptly, the extent of possible damage and the possibility of preventing or minimising their impact. The aim of the paper is to structure supply chain threats and search for appropriate datasets. Methodology: The paper analyses the state-of-the-art through a comprehensive literature review and demonstrates secondary data about how free-access business data can be used as Early Warning Signals to forecast supply chain disruptive events, with a particular focus on international maritime transportation. Results: It was confirmed that companies can access many open datasets, and collecting and aggregating these data can improve their preparedness for future disruptive events. As the most important issue, the authors defined the selection of proper datasets and interpreting results with foresight. Conclusions: Identifying and analysing the relevant Early Warning Signals by companies to prevent supply chain disruptions are essential for keeping their supply chains sustainable and their resilience on a sufficient level. It was proved that general business indicators (PMI delivery time, container capacity, inflation rate, etc.) can help to signal the increasing possibility of maritime traffic problems in ports and container unavailability as usual supply chain disruption types in recent years. Therefore, the companies in the supply chains need to find, collect and analyse the appropriate data, which are, in some cases, free and available. However, it is a substantial task for data analysts to identify the most relevant data and work out the analytical methodology which can be applied as Early Warning Systems (EWS).","PeriodicalId":42693,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomski Vjesnik","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70670141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose: This paper gauges the nexus between government expenditures and the output level in Turkey. Our primary research objective is to evaluate the extent to which government expenditures give rise to an increase in GDP taking the Armey curve theory as a basis for the analysis. Succinctly speaking, this theory suggests that the expansionary impact of government expenditure on income level has diminishing nature and beyond a certain threshold public spending impairs rather than accelerates economic activities for several reasons including crowding out, rent-seeking, tax hikes, and public debt surges. Methodology: In order to test the validity of this theory, we use a dataset with annual frequency covering the 1968-2019 period, which is the longest dataset used to carry out this analysis in the literature for Turkey. We set up an ARDL model to estimate the long-run coefficients required for quantifying the optimal level of government spending in Turkey. Results: According to our findings, the estimated function exhibits a concave down functional form, which implies a diminishing marginal effect of government spending on GDP, suggesting thereby that the Armey curve theory is valid for Turkey. In addition, even though government expenditure has topped out in recent years, it is still below the GDP maximising optimal level, which indicates that there is sufficient room for expansionary fiscal policies, with the caveat of a potential negative marginal impact on GDP once the optimal threshold is exceeded. Conclusion: The long-run coefficients from the ARDL estimation reveal that despite a consistent upward trend, government expenditures are still below their optimal level, which implies that there is fiscal space available to the government as far as output maximisation is concerned. However, government expenditures have been on a downward trend recently, which is contrary to output maximisation.
{"title":"Quantifying the optimal long-run level of government expenditures in Turkey","authors":"Cansu Can, Emin Efecan Aktaş","doi":"10.51680/ev.35.1.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.51680/ev.35.1.6","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: This paper gauges the nexus between government expenditures and the output level in Turkey. Our primary research objective is to evaluate the extent to which government expenditures give rise to an increase in GDP taking the Armey curve theory as a basis for the analysis. Succinctly speaking, this theory suggests that the expansionary impact of government expenditure on income level has diminishing nature and beyond a certain threshold public spending impairs rather than accelerates economic activities for several reasons including crowding out, rent-seeking, tax hikes, and public debt surges. Methodology: In order to test the validity of this theory, we use a dataset with annual frequency covering the 1968-2019 period, which is the longest dataset used to carry out this analysis in the literature for Turkey. We set up an ARDL model to estimate the long-run coefficients required for quantifying the optimal level of government spending in Turkey. Results: According to our findings, the estimated function exhibits a concave down functional form, which implies a diminishing marginal effect of government spending on GDP, suggesting thereby that the Armey curve theory is valid for Turkey. In addition, even though government expenditure has topped out in recent years, it is still below the GDP maximising optimal level, which indicates that there is sufficient room for expansionary fiscal policies, with the caveat of a potential negative marginal impact on GDP once the optimal threshold is exceeded. Conclusion: The long-run coefficients from the ARDL estimation reveal that despite a consistent upward trend, government expenditures are still below their optimal level, which implies that there is fiscal space available to the government as far as output maximisation is concerned. However, government expenditures have been on a downward trend recently, which is contrary to output maximisation.","PeriodicalId":42693,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomski Vjesnik","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70668712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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