This paper investigates the impact of digital banking on greenhouse gas emissions in a case of developing economy, Turkey. Digital banking means more technological innovations in banking transactions. If banking transactions can be made in digital rather than physical environments, environmental effects are expected. We assume the environmental effect is positive, so the examination of this relationship is quite important. Technological innovations mean an increase in cost of digital banking transactions in the short run but in the long run this cost-increased effect is expected to turn opposite by an increase of active users in digital banking. We analyse the long-run relationship for the period between 2011/1 and 2019/4 by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results show that the increase in digital banking transactions have a positive and statistically significant effect on greenhouse gas emissions in Turkey. The findings reveal the positive trend in increasing transactions in digital banking in Turkey.
{"title":"How Digital Banking Affects Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Turkey? An Empirical Investigation","authors":"Ercan Özen, Ahmet Eren Yıldırım","doi":"10.54694/stat.2022.37","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.37","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of digital banking on greenhouse gas emissions in a case of developing economy, Turkey. Digital banking means more technological innovations in banking transactions. If banking transactions can be made in digital rather than physical environments, environmental effects are expected. We assume the environmental effect is positive, so the examination of this relationship is quite important. Technological innovations mean an increase in cost of digital banking transactions in the short run but in the long run this cost-increased effect is expected to turn opposite by an increase of active users in digital banking. We analyse the long-run relationship for the period between 2011/1 and 2019/4 by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results show that the increase in digital banking transactions have a positive and statistically significant effect on greenhouse gas emissions in Turkey. The findings reveal the positive trend in increasing transactions in digital banking in Turkey.","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44710913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper tries to find an answer to how to perceive the term balance of payments (dis)equilibrium. The text follows the individual editions of the IMF Balance of Payments Manual and concurrent opinions on balance of payments (dis)equilibrium from the point of view of both the IMF and economists outside the IMF. Despite the difficulty and complexity of balance of payments analysis, there was a considerable demand among the economic and lay communities for a "single figure" covering balance of payments (dis)equilibrium. Eventually, the current account balance was selected as the "single figure." The simplest way to perceive the current account balance equilibrium is as a tendency to return to its zero value. However, some more complex approaches allow considering a longterm non-zero balance of the current account as a state of equilibrium.
{"title":"Development of Balance of Payments Concept and Theoretical Approach to Its Equilibrium (with the Emphasis on the Current Account)","authors":"O. Šíma","doi":"10.54694/stat.2022.26","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.26","url":null,"abstract":"The paper tries to find an answer to how to perceive the term balance of payments (dis)equilibrium. The text follows the individual editions of the IMF Balance of Payments Manual and concurrent opinions on balance of payments (dis)equilibrium from the point of view of both the IMF and economists outside the IMF. Despite the difficulty and complexity of balance of payments analysis, there was a considerable demand among the economic and lay communities for a \"single figure\" covering balance of payments (dis)equilibrium. Eventually, the current account balance was selected as the \"single figure.\" The simplest way to perceive the current account balance equilibrium is as a tendency to return to its zero value. However, some more complex approaches allow considering a longterm non-zero balance of the current account as a state of equilibrium.","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45388309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The main objective of this paper is to assess the impact of a change in household income inequality on macroeconomic variables of a developing country, in this case Morocco. To this end, we run a static CGE model calibrated to the 2016 Moroccan SAM. Among the main results, we find that a 1% increase in household income inequality leads to a decrease of (–1.60%) in GDP at market prices, which implies a loss of (–1.93%) in primary sector value added (agriculture and fishing) which remains a key sector in this economy. Furthermore, we find that a fiscal and budgetary policy that targets reducing inequality can also improve social and economic outcomes.
{"title":"Evaluation of the Socioeconomic Impact of Income Inequality in Morocco Using a CGE Model","authors":"Zakaria Chtouki, Radouane Raouf","doi":"10.54694/stat.2022.31","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.31","url":null,"abstract":"The main objective of this paper is to assess the impact of a change in household income inequality on macroeconomic variables of a developing country, in this case Morocco. To this end, we run a static CGE model calibrated to the 2016 Moroccan SAM. Among the main results, we find that a 1% increase in household income inequality leads to a decrease of (–1.60%) in GDP at market prices, which implies a loss of (–1.93%) in primary sector value added (agriculture and fishing) which remains a key sector in this economy. Furthermore, we find that a fiscal and budgetary policy that targets reducing inequality can also improve social and economic outcomes.","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45943988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The purpose of this study is to investigate and evaluate the impact of the global Covid-19 crisis on consumer spending tendencies in Turkey. The data of the study, which are weekly data, consists of the "Debit Card and Credit Card Expenditure" amounts of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) for the period 6/3/2015–5/8/2022. Changes in consumer expenditures during the Covid-19 pandemic process were examined with the help of structural break tests. The main contribution of this article subsists in an empirical study to examine structural breaks in Turkey using personal debit and credit card disaggregated total expenditure data during the Covid-19 period. According to the research findings; the change observed at the beginning of the Covid-19 period in card expenditures is less than the change observed at the end of the period. With the end of the pandemic, an upward breakout was observed in most of the expenditure items.
{"title":"Evaluation of the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Consumer Spending in Turkey by Structural Break Analysis","authors":"Mehmet Marangoz, Hatice Hicret Ozkoc","doi":"10.54694/stat.2022.21","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.21","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to investigate and evaluate the impact of the global Covid-19 crisis on consumer spending tendencies in Turkey. The data of the study, which are weekly data, consists of the \"Debit Card and Credit Card Expenditure\" amounts of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) for the period 6/3/2015–5/8/2022. Changes in consumer expenditures during the Covid-19 pandemic process were examined with the help of structural break tests. The main contribution of this article subsists in an empirical study to examine structural breaks in Turkey using personal debit and credit card disaggregated total expenditure data during the Covid-19 period. According to the research findings; the change observed at the beginning of the Covid-19 period in card expenditures is less than the change observed at the end of the period. With the end of the pandemic, an upward breakout was observed in most of the expenditure items.","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70885405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Antoch, Mola and Vozár (2022) proposed recently new randomized response technique for population mean or total of a quantitative variable. The aim of the paper is to solve the open problem to derive unbiased variance estimator of these procedures. In their proposal, unlike other randomized response techniques for population mean or total the randomized response is not a linear function of a sensitive variable. However, standard techniques to derive variance estimators in this setting are based on this assumption. That is why an interviewer needs also to know values pseudorandom numbers (i.e., results of individual randomization experiments). Respondents might perceive this relaxation of privacy protection negative. The performance of the approximate two-sided confidence intervals of distributions with different shape including their coverage is assessed by a simulation study for simple random sampling without replacement.
{"title":"Unbiased Variance Estimator of the Randomised Response Techniques for Population Mean","authors":"Ondřej Vozár","doi":"10.54694/stat.2022.38","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.38","url":null,"abstract":"Antoch, Mola and Vozár (2022) proposed recently new randomized response technique for population mean or total of a quantitative variable. The aim of the paper is to solve the open problem to derive unbiased variance estimator of these procedures. In their proposal, unlike other randomized response techniques for population mean or total the randomized response is not a linear function of a sensitive variable. However, standard techniques to derive variance estimators in this setting are based on this assumption. That is why an interviewer needs also to know values pseudorandom numbers (i.e., results of individual randomization experiments). Respondents might perceive this relaxation of privacy protection negative. The performance of the approximate two-sided confidence intervals of distributions with different shape including their coverage is assessed by a simulation study for simple random sampling without replacement.","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48053723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, a novel market risk tracking and prediction strategy is introduced. Our approach takes volatility clustering into account and allows for the possibility of regime shifts in the intra-portfolio's latent correlation structure. The proposed specification combines hidden Markov models (HMM) with latent factor models that takes into account the presence of both the conditional skewness and leverage effects in stock returns. A computationally efficient expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm based on the Viterbi decoder is developed to estimate the model parameters. Using daily exchange rate data of the Tunisian dinar versus the currencies of the main Tunisian government's creditors, during the 2011 revolution period, the model parameters are estimated. Then, the suitable model is used in conjunction with a Monte Carlo simulation strategy to predict the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the Tunisian government's foreign debt portfolio. The backtesting results indicate that the new approach appears to give a good fit to the data and can improve the VaR predictions, particularly during financial instability periods.
{"title":"A New Viterbi-Based Decoding Strategy for Market Risk Tracking: an Application to the Tunisian Foreign Debt Portfolio During 2010–2012","authors":"Mohamed Saidane","doi":"10.54694/stat.2022.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.17","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, a novel market risk tracking and prediction strategy is introduced. Our approach takes volatility clustering into account and allows for the possibility of regime shifts in the intra-portfolio's latent correlation structure. The proposed specification combines hidden Markov models (HMM) with latent factor models that takes into account the presence of both the conditional skewness and leverage effects in stock returns. A computationally efficient expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm based on the Viterbi decoder is developed to estimate the model parameters. Using daily exchange rate data of the Tunisian dinar versus the currencies of the main Tunisian government's creditors, during the 2011 revolution period, the model parameters are estimated. Then, the suitable model is used in conjunction with a Monte Carlo simulation strategy to predict the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the Tunisian government's foreign debt portfolio. The backtesting results indicate that the new approach appears to give a good fit to the data and can improve the VaR predictions, particularly during financial instability periods.","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41268157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economy digitalization has become a trend during the pandemic. The banking sector was also one of the first to face the need to accelerate digitalization. This work is devoted to developing a digitalization index for both the banking sector and an individual bank based on a set of indicators calculated according to data from the World Bank and data from commercial banks. At a macro level, the study concluded that the pandemic has accelerated the digitalization of the banking sector in all the monitored countries; however, a significant increase was observed in countries with lower index values in the pre-pandemic period. At the micro-level, the study showed that digital banks had benefited from digitalization more during the pandemic, unlike classical banks.
{"title":"Digitalization Index: Case for Banking System","authors":"N. Versal, Vasyl Erastov, M. Balytska, I. Honchar","doi":"10.54694/stat.2022.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.16","url":null,"abstract":"Economy digitalization has become a trend during the pandemic. The banking sector was also one of the first to face the need to accelerate digitalization. This work is devoted to developing a digitalization index for both the banking sector and an individual bank based on a set of indicators calculated according to data from the World Bank and data from commercial banks. At a macro level, the study concluded that the pandemic has accelerated the digitalization of the banking sector in all the monitored countries; however, a significant increase was observed in countries with lower index values in the pre-pandemic period. At the micro-level, the study showed that digital banks had benefited from digitalization more during the pandemic, unlike classical banks.","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45887615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of this paper is to present the use of simulations of non-homogeneous Markov chains in discrete time in the context of the problem of long-term care delivery. The object of investigation is to model the distribution of clients into different states during specified time steps, then to estimate the average time a client stays in a given state, as well as to estimate the insurance premiums. Within the use of the Monte Carlo simulation method, the focus is on providing approaches that ensure more accurate results in the context of the number of simulations performed. Based on the statistical processing of the data obtained from the simulations, it is possible to obtain the information necessary for the provision of resources for the provision of health care and for the determination of the aforementioned premiums. For the implementation of the above techniques and their graphical presentation available packages such as markovchain, ggplot2 or custom code created using the R language were used.
{"title":"Use of Markov Chain Simulation in Long Term Care Insurance","authors":"V. Mucha, Ivana Faybikova, Ingrid Krčová","doi":"10.54694/stat.2022.20","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.20","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to present the use of simulations of non-homogeneous Markov chains in discrete time in the context of the problem of long-term care delivery. The object of investigation is to model the distribution of clients into different states during specified time steps, then to estimate the average time a client stays in a given state, as well as to estimate the insurance premiums. Within the use of the Monte Carlo simulation method, the focus is on providing approaches that ensure more accurate results in the context of the number of simulations performed. Based on the statistical processing of the data obtained from the simulations, it is possible to obtain the information necessary for the provision of resources for the provision of health care and for the determination of the aforementioned premiums. For the implementation of the above techniques and their graphical presentation available packages such as markovchain, ggplot2 or custom code created using the R language were used.","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45809707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many game development companies use game data analysis for mining insights about users' behaviour and possible product growth. One of the most important analysis tasks for game development is user churn prediction. Effective churn prediction can help hold users in the game by initiating additional actions for their engagement. We focused on high-value user churn prediction as it is of particular interest for any business to keep paying customers satisfied and engaged. We consider the churn prediction problem as a classification problem and conduct the random undersampling approach to address imbalanced class distribution between churners and active users. Based on our real-life data from a freemium casual mobile game, although the best model was chosen as the final classification algorithm for extracted data, we can definitely say there is no general solution to the stated problem. Model performance highly depends on the churn definition, user segmentation and feature engineering, it is therefore necessary to have a custom approach to churn analysis in each specific case.
{"title":"Churn Prediction for High-Value Players in Freemium Mobile Games: Using Random Under-Sampling","authors":"Guan‐Yuan Wang","doi":"10.54694/stat.2022.18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.18","url":null,"abstract":"Many game development companies use game data analysis for mining insights about users' behaviour and possible product growth. One of the most important analysis tasks for game development is user churn prediction. Effective churn prediction can help hold users in the game by initiating additional actions for their engagement. We focused on high-value user churn prediction as it is of particular interest for any business to keep paying customers satisfied and engaged. We consider the churn prediction problem as a classification problem and conduct the random undersampling approach to address imbalanced class distribution between churners and active users. Based on our real-life data from a freemium casual mobile game, although the best model was chosen as the final classification algorithm for extracted data, we can definitely say there is no general solution to the stated problem. Model performance highly depends on the churn definition, user segmentation and feature engineering, it is therefore necessary to have a custom approach to churn analysis in each specific case.","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46862601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the role of factors which could have influenced subjective well-being (SWB) in European countries at a national level between 2010 and 2019. Macroeconomic variables in much of the existing literature have looked at GDP, inflation, government size and expenditure and their relationship to SWB. The current analysis included corruption, property rights, poverty, life expectancy, working time and emissions to enrich the existing body of literature. The World Happiness Index (WHI) is used to measure SWB in this study. The correlation analysis in this study shows a high level of correlation between WHI and the Human Development Index (HDI) which suggests the WHI is a suitable proxy for measuring subjective well-being. Next, the fixed and random effects models were estimated since the dataset was longitudinal, and we have also compared panel regression models with OLS regression models. This analysis revealed positive relationships of GDP, income and property rights on WHI, while poverty and unemployment impact WHI negatively, thus we can conclude positive relationship between material aspects of life and subjective well-being. Corruption and working time impact SWB in a negative way while the impact of life expectancy is positive. The regression models with inflation and emissions were not found to be significant in the research. The results were compared with existing studies based on individual as well as aggregated data. Similarities in results prove that it is possible to analyze determinants of SWB from aggregated data on national level. At the end, we formulate proposals for improving quality of life in the analyzed countries.
{"title":"Macroeconomic Indicators and Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from the European Union","authors":"B. Marton, Alena Mojsejová","doi":"10.54694/stat.2022.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.19","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the role of factors which could have influenced subjective well-being (SWB) in European countries at a national level between 2010 and 2019. Macroeconomic variables in much of the existing literature have looked at GDP, inflation, government size and expenditure and their relationship to SWB. The current analysis included corruption, property rights, poverty, life expectancy, working time and emissions to enrich the existing body of literature. The World Happiness Index (WHI) is used to measure SWB in this study. The correlation analysis in this study shows a high level of correlation between WHI and the Human Development Index (HDI) which suggests the WHI is a suitable proxy for measuring subjective well-being. Next, the fixed and random effects models were estimated since the dataset was longitudinal, and we have also compared panel regression models with OLS regression models. This analysis revealed positive relationships of GDP, income and property rights on WHI, while poverty and unemployment impact WHI negatively, thus we can conclude positive relationship between material aspects of life and subjective well-being. Corruption and working time impact SWB in a negative way while the impact of life expectancy is positive. The regression models with inflation and emissions were not found to be significant in the research. The results were compared with existing studies based on individual as well as aggregated data. Similarities in results prove that it is possible to analyze determinants of SWB from aggregated data on national level. At the end, we formulate proposals for improving quality of life in the analyzed countries.","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45724452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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