Road traffic accidents are a growing public health concern. In this study, we focused on analyzing and forecasting the monthly number of accidents, number of injuries, and number of deaths in Algeria over the period (2015–2020). For this purpose, hybrid forecasting models based on equal weights and in-sample errors were fitted, and we compared them with the seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) models. The three models retained for forecasting until 2022 are all hybrid models, one based on equal weight and two models based on in-sample errors (using the RMSE indicator). Furthermore, the hybrid models outperformed the SARIMA models for short (6 months), medium (12 months), and long horizon (24 months). The forecasting results showed that we expect an increase in the number of accidents, the number of deaths, and the number of injuries over the next 12 months. Policymakers must enhance strategies for prevention and road safety, especially in rural areas, where the highest rate of fatalities is recorded.
{"title":"Application of the Hybrid Forecasting Models to Road Traffic Accidents in Algeria","authors":"F. Chellai","doi":"10.54694/stat.2021.37","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2021.37","url":null,"abstract":"Road traffic accidents are a growing public health concern. In this study, we focused on analyzing and forecasting the monthly number of accidents, number of injuries, and number of deaths in Algeria over the period (2015–2020). For this purpose, hybrid forecasting models based on equal weights and in-sample errors were fitted, and we compared them with the seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) models. The three models retained for forecasting until 2022 are all hybrid models, one based on equal weight and two models based on in-sample errors (using the RMSE indicator). Furthermore, the hybrid models outperformed the SARIMA models for short (6 months), medium (12 months), and long horizon (24 months). The forecasting results showed that we expect an increase in the number of accidents, the number of deaths, and the number of injuries over the next 12 months. Policymakers must enhance strategies for prevention and road safety, especially in rural areas, where the highest rate of fatalities is recorded.","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44543013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this study, the effects of financial development and trade openness on economic growth were investigated using annual data for Turkey over the period 1960–2017. The financial development variable is represented as the ratio of financial system deposits to GDP. The trade openness variable is represented as the ratio of the sum of exports and imports of goods and services to GDP. To examine the long-run relationship between financial development, trade openness and economic growth; Fourier-based stationarity test and its complementary Fourier-based cointegration test are used. Finally, Fourier-based causality tests are also used to examine the causality relationship between the variables. As a result of cointegration tests, a long-term cointegration relationship was found between variables. According to the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis results, it is seen that there is a one-way causality relationship from financial development to economic growth and from financial development to trade openness.
{"title":"The Relationship between Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Fourier Tests","authors":"Havanur Ergün Tatar, Gökhan Konat, M. Temi̇z","doi":"10.54694/stat.2021.46","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2021.46","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, the effects of financial development and trade openness on economic growth were investigated using annual data for Turkey over the period 1960–2017. The financial development variable is represented as the ratio of financial system deposits to GDP. The trade openness variable is represented as the ratio of the sum of exports and imports of goods and services to GDP. To examine the long-run relationship between financial development, trade openness and economic growth; Fourier-based stationarity test and its complementary Fourier-based cointegration test are used. Finally, Fourier-based causality tests are also used to examine the causality relationship between the variables. As a result of cointegration tests, a long-term cointegration relationship was found between variables. According to the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis results, it is seen that there is a one-way causality relationship from financial development to economic growth and from financial development to trade openness.","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44544771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The price of Dogecoin has been influenced by Elon Musk’s tweets on several occasions. Moreover, there are repeating patterns in the Dogecoin prices. However, is there also a pattern to the timing of the tweets? Applying linear regression, we have been able to make the reverse analysis – to use hard financial data (prices) to analyse the human behaviour (tweets) that preceded and influenced the financial data. Selected tweets could be paired thanks to the projections of their timing on the regression line that had been created over the prices. Our model exhibits inaccuracies only in the order of the days. That is surprising, as pump schemes do not usually require such a high level of long-term deterministic timing.
{"title":"Can Individual Human Financial Behaviour Be Mathematically Modelled? A Case Study of Elon Musk’s Dogecoin Tweets","authors":"Juraj Medzihorský, Peter Krištofík","doi":"10.54694/stat.2022.9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.9","url":null,"abstract":"The price of Dogecoin has been influenced by Elon Musk’s tweets on several occasions. Moreover, there are repeating patterns in the Dogecoin prices. However, is there also a pattern to the timing of the tweets? Applying linear regression, we have been able to make the reverse analysis – to use hard financial data (prices) to analyse the human behaviour (tweets) that preceded and influenced the financial data. Selected tweets could be paired thanks to the projections of their timing on the regression line that had been created over the prices. Our model exhibits inaccuracies only in the order of the days. That is surprising, as pump schemes do not usually require such a high level of long-term deterministic timing.","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44182847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examined the persistence of the gender earnings gap across diverged occupational groups and the workers owning diverged work status in India using the relevant information on 94 446 workers from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (2017–18). The marginal mean earning of workers is estimated using GLM: ANCOVA. The findings report the persistence of significant gender earnings gap across the occupational structure and work status of workers. The elimination of demotivating factors leading to the gender earnings gap, removal of gender discrimination, enhancing the self-esteem of females, raising productivity potential by augmenting the professional/vocational education and policies for increased female work participation is the need of the hour.
{"title":"Is Gender Earnings Gap a Reality? Signals from Indian Labour Market","authors":"Sonu Madan, Surender Mor","doi":"10.54694/stat.2021.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2021.19","url":null,"abstract":"We examined the persistence of the gender earnings gap across diverged occupational groups and the workers owning diverged work status in India using the relevant information on 94 446 workers from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (2017–18). The marginal mean earning of workers is estimated using GLM: ANCOVA. The findings report the persistence of significant gender earnings gap across the occupational structure and work status of workers. The elimination of demotivating factors leading to the gender earnings gap, removal of gender discrimination, enhancing the self-esteem of females, raising productivity potential by augmenting the professional/vocational education and policies for increased female work participation is the need of the hour.","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48362458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Peter Pisár, Alexandra Mertinková, Miroslav Šipikal, M. Stachová
The study empirically analyses the determinants of self-employment from unemployment in Slovakia in the period of economic boom. The previous employment of individuals before support is proving to be an important factor in the transition to self-employment. We believe that the importance lies in gaining a practical basis from past jobs, market orientation or establishing contacts before starting a business. Practical courses and support in the form of a tax loan would contribute to the creation of value-added business ideas that have a better chance on the labour market (because after support there is entrepreneurship only in less capital-intensive industries). The paper examines short-term and long-term perspectives using decision trees and random forests, which are exceptionally used in the study of public support. At the same time, research is enriched with practical perspectives, which significantly increases the information base of research.
{"title":"The Importance of Determinants of Transition from Unemployment to Self-Employment: Evidence from Slovak Micro-Data","authors":"Peter Pisár, Alexandra Mertinková, Miroslav Šipikal, M. Stachová","doi":"10.54694/stat.2022.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.8","url":null,"abstract":"The study empirically analyses the determinants of self-employment from unemployment in Slovakia in the period of economic boom. The previous employment of individuals before support is proving to be an important factor in the transition to self-employment. We believe that the importance lies in gaining a practical basis from past jobs, market orientation or establishing contacts before starting a business. Practical courses and support in the form of a tax loan would contribute to the creation of value-added business ideas that have a better chance on the labour market (because after support there is entrepreneurship only in less capital-intensive industries). The paper examines short-term and long-term perspectives using decision trees and random forests, which are exceptionally used in the study of public support. At the same time, research is enriched with practical perspectives, which significantly increases the information base of research.","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42851545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Income and Inequality Measures in Households in Czech Republic and Poland based on Zenga Distribution","authors":"Kamila Trzcińska","doi":"10.54694/stat.2021.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2021.12","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41800787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ionuţ Pandelică, Cristina Popîrlan, Cristina Mihaela Barbu, Mihail Cristian Negulescu, Anca Madalina Bogdan, Simona Moise, E. Bică, Mihaela Cocoșilă
{"title":"A Demand-Supply Equilibrium Model - Study Case on the Electricity Market for Households from the Perspective of Prices Liberalization","authors":"Ionuţ Pandelică, Cristina Popîrlan, Cristina Mihaela Barbu, Mihail Cristian Negulescu, Anca Madalina Bogdan, Simona Moise, E. Bică, Mihaela Cocoșilă","doi":"10.54694/stat.2021.30","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2021.30","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42404334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On what Really Matters: Evidence from Alternative Well-Being Indicator in EU-28 Countries","authors":"Veronika Jurčišinová, Ľubica Štiblárová","doi":"10.54694/stat.2021.39","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2021.39","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49074608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Covid-19 pandemic have dramatically affected the socio-economic structure in the world since governments put into action considerable precautions including lockdowns to reduce the speed of the contagion. Focusing on this point, we empirically investigate the environmental outcomes of the Covid-19 precautions and lockdowns in Turkey. The empirical analysis through the data obtained from different measurement stations indicate that the air pollution in the selected Turkish cities decreased due to the implemented precautions. The findings suggest that the Covid-19 might be an opportunity to rethink some economic and behavioral practices, as demonstrated by the reduction in the emission of air pollutants.
{"title":"Did COVID-19 Precautions and Lockdowns Cause Better Air Quality? Empirical Findings from Turkish Provinces","authors":"Ali Ari, Raif Cergibozan, Caner Demir","doi":"10.54694/stat.2021.34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2021.34","url":null,"abstract":"The Covid-19 pandemic have dramatically affected the socio-economic structure in the world since governments put into action considerable precautions including lockdowns to reduce the speed of the contagion. Focusing on this point, we empirically investigate the environmental outcomes of the Covid-19 precautions and lockdowns in Turkey. The empirical analysis through the data obtained from different measurement stations indicate that the air pollution in the selected Turkish cities decreased due to the implemented precautions. The findings suggest that the Covid-19 might be an opportunity to rethink some economic and behavioral practices, as demonstrated by the reduction in the emission of air pollutants.","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46497592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Productive Population and Czech Economy by 2060","authors":"J. Sixta, Karel Šafr","doi":"10.54694/stat.2021.29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2021.29","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43106,"journal":{"name":"Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2022-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41952851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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