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Kim Jong Un Regime’s Social Control Policy: Continuities and Changes 金正恩政权的社会控制政策:延续与变迁
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2017.29.1.001
Sangwon Jung
Even during the Kim Jong Un era, the rationing system of North Korea has not yet been recovered. In addition, the thought control system has been weaker than during the Kim Jong Il era. The Kim Jong Un regime stays in power mainly by strengthening political and social control by law enforcement agencies (including police and intelligence agencies). However, there is a lacuna in the control of governmental authority in that giving bribes to public officials enables people to avoid the control. In 2016, social control was strengthened in a situation in which DPRK`s economy cannot be improved due to the sanctions imposed by the UN on it. This will exacerbate the instability of the Kim Jong Un regime. Although the unstable factors during the Kim Jong Un era have increased, it is hard to say that those factors will lead to contingency in North Korea under current conditions. Firstly, a change of people`s consciousness in North Korea is insufficient to bring about a change in its system. Secondly, it is difficult to mobilize and organize the people`s discontent over the Kim Jong-un regime due to the strict control by law enforcement agencies. Thus, a change in the social control system is necessary for fundamental system change in North Korea. To do this, not only further economic sanctions on North Korea and inflow of external information, but also, a lot of pressure especially focused on the North Korean Human Rights Act are required.
即使在金正恩时代,朝鲜的配给制也没有恢复。此外,思想控制系统也比金正日时代弱。金正恩政权主要通过加强执法机关(包括警察和情报机关)对政治和社会的控制来维持政权。但是,对政府权力的控制存在一个漏洞,即向公职人员行贿可以使人们逃避对政府权力的控制。2016年,在朝鲜经济因联合国制裁而无法改善的情况下,社会控制得到加强。这将加剧金正恩政权的不稳定性。虽然金正恩时代的不稳定因素有所增加,但在目前的情况下,很难说这些因素会引发北韩的突发事件。首先,朝鲜人民意识的改变不足以带来体制的改变。其次,由于执法机构的严格控制,很难动员和组织民众对金正恩政权的不满。因此,要从根本上改变北韩的制度,就必须改变社会控制体系。为此,不仅要加强对北韩的经济制裁和外部信息的流入,而且要以《北韩人权法》为中心,施加很大的压力。
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引用次数: 1
An Enduring Dilemma on the Korean Peninsula: The North Korean Nuclear Conundrum and South Korea`s Strategic Choices 朝鲜半岛的持久困境:朝鲜核难题与韩国的战略选择
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2016-01-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2016.28.2.001
In-Taek Hyun
This paper sheds new light on the North Korean nuclear conundrum, which has long been the source of security dilemmas on the Korean Peninsula, and South Korea’s strategic choices with regard to it. In doing this, this paper deals with four research questions: 1) How serious are North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities?; 2) What are the implications of international sanctions and countries’ positions?; 3) Can and will South Korea and the international community stop the North Korean nuclear program successfully?; and 4) And if not, what should South Korea do? This paper indicates that in the wake of North Korea’s fourth nuclear test and subsequent missile test, North Korea’s nuclear Pandora’s Box is almost about to open. It urges that if it indeed opens, it would completely change the strategic environment of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia. This deep frustration and a sense of urgency have driven South Korea and the international community to impose stronger and tougher sanctions against North Korea than before. However, this paper argues that multiple factors..South Korea’s limited ability; the escalation of the U.S.-China global and regional rivalry; the strategic consideration of countries involved, especially China; and North Korea’s tenacious survival strategy-engage in strong pessimism, leaving the North Korean nuclear situation unresolved. Therefore, on the one hand, South Korea has to make every effort to denuclearize North Korea until the last minute, exhausting every possible option and means. However, on the other hand, it has to prepare for a worst-case scenario. This paper points out that South Korea’s exit strategy should be a “strategy of delicate deterrence” that is a comprehensive strategy of deterrence to combine military, political and diplomatic means.
这篇文章揭示了长期以来一直是韩半岛安全困境根源的朝核难题,以及韩国的战略选择。在此过程中,本文涉及四个研究问题:1)朝鲜的核能力和导弹能力有多严重?2)国际制裁的影响和各国的立场是什么?3)韩国和国际社会能否成功阻止北韩的核开发?4)如果不是,韩国该怎么办?这篇文章指出,随着朝鲜第四次核试验和随后的导弹试验,朝鲜核潘多拉的盒子即将打开。如果开放,将彻底改变韩半岛和东北亚的战略环境。这种深深的挫折感和紧迫感促使韩国和国际社会对朝鲜实施比以往更强有力、更严厉的制裁。然而,本文认为多方面的因素:韩国的能力有限;美中在全球和地区竞争的升级;有关国家,特别是中国的战略考虑;以及朝鲜顽强的生存战略——陷入强烈的悲观主义,让朝鲜核局势悬而未决。因此,一方面,为了实现北韩的无核化,韩国必须尽一切努力,直到最后一刻,用尽一切可能的选择和手段。然而,另一方面,它必须为最坏的情况做好准备。本文指出,韩国的退出战略应该是一种“微妙威慑战略”,即军事、政治和外交手段相结合的综合威慑战略。
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引用次数: 4
The Conditions for Sanctions Success: A Comparison of the Iranian and North Korean Cases 制裁成功的条件:伊朗和朝鲜案例的比较
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2016-01-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2016.28.1.009
B. Kwon
Why were economic sanctions able to produce successful political outcomes in Iran but not in North Korea during 2006.2015? Experts have argued that sanctions are not really effective in changing a state’s objectionable policies or behavior. However, such conclusions should not be drawn without a close examination of the complex environment under which sanctions are imposed. This paper attempts to identify the conditions of sanctions success by comparing the economic sanctions imposed on Iran and North Korea. It begins with a critical assessment of extant evaluations of sanctions imposed on North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program. Next, it examines Iran sanctions to identify the factors that facilitated the resumption of nuclear talks in 2013 and led to a political agreement in 2015. Subsequently, this is compared with North Korea sanctions to explain why sanctions were more effective in Iran. Finally, the paper extrapolates the conditions for sanctions success that incorporate the political and economic characteristics of the states involved as well as the sanctions policy per se. The paper concludes with a discussion of the lessons learned.
为什么在2006年至2015年期间,经济制裁能够在伊朗产生成功的政治结果,而在朝鲜却没有?专家们认为,制裁并不能真正有效地改变一个国家令人反感的政策或行为。但是,在没有仔细审查实施制裁的复杂环境之前,不应得出这种结论。本文试图通过对伊朗和朝鲜经济制裁的比较,找出制裁成功的条件。报告首先对现有的对朝鲜放弃核武器计划的制裁的评估进行了批判性评估。接下来,它审视了对伊朗的制裁,以确定促进2013年恢复核谈判并导致2015年达成政治协议的因素。随后,将这与对朝鲜的制裁进行比较,以解释为什么制裁对伊朗更有效。最后,本文推断了制裁成功的条件,包括所涉国家的政治和经济特征以及制裁政策本身。文章最后讨论了所吸取的教训。
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引用次数: 5
CBMs for Cyberspace beyond the Traditional Security Environment: Focusing on Features for CBMs for Cyberspace in Northeast Asia 超越传统安全环境的网络空间信任措施:聚焦东北亚网络空间信任措施的特点
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2015-01-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2015.27.1.006
Geun-hye Kim, Kyungho Lee, Jong-in Lim
This paper aims to analyze confidence-building measures (CBMs) for cyberspace taking place in Northeast Asia. Accordingly, it explores features of cyber security in the Northeast Asian region and concepts of CBMs for cyberspace. Then, it studies networks of CBMs for cyberspace that took place on the government level in the region from 2009 through the first half of 2014 by using the network analysis method, which is useful for studying current social relations. This study analyzes the structure of CBMs networks used in the region for the past six years and the actors. Conclusions of this study are as follows: First, CBMs for cyberspace in Northeast Asia are focused on the United States. Second, the CBMs in the region have similar features to those of traditional security cooperation. Thirdly, they are strongly based on realism. From the perspective of networks, this study is meaningful in that it used a macro approach to analyze CBMs, which was difficult to perform by using conventional methods.
本文旨在分析东北亚地区正在实施的网络空间建立信任措施。据此,探讨了东北亚地区网络安全的特点和网络空间信任措施的概念。然后,运用网络分析方法,对2009年至2014年上半年该地区政府层面的网络空间信任建立网络进行了研究,这有助于研究当前的社会关系。本研究分析了过去六年来该地区使用的信任措施网络的结构及其参与者。本文的研究结论如下:第一,东北亚地区网络空间信任措施主要针对美国。第二,本地区建立信任措施与传统安全合作具有相似特点。第三,它们强烈地基于现实主义。从网络的角度来看,本研究的意义在于采用宏观的方法来分析信任措施,这是传统方法难以做到的。
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引用次数: 2
Retrospect and Prospect of the ROK-US Alliance at 60 and Beyond 韩美同盟60年后的回顾与展望
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2015-01-01 DOI: 10.1057/9781137541710_2
C. Kang
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引用次数: 1
Who Takes North Korea Seriously? U.S. Congress and Policy toward Pyongyang, 2009-2012 谁把朝鲜当回事?美国国会与对朝政策,2009-2012
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2013-01-01 DOI: 10.1163/2468-1733_shafr_sim290050056
Seo Jungkun
How and why do legislative members weigh in on foreign policy dilemmas? U.S. Congress often seeks to carve out spheres of influence over international relations and yet we know little about why and how some America`s lawmakers take North Korea seriously. This article explores a host of North Korea measures during the111th and 112th U.S. Congress (2009.2012) and identifies the sources of legislative activism toward Pyongyang`s nuclear weapons threats and atrocious human rights records. Empirical analyses show that a group of congressional members use bill cosponsor ship strategies and call on the Obama administration to revamp its policy concerning North Korea. The findings shed light on why lawmakers would bother to introduce such specialized foreign policy bills even if their prospects for becoming law are uncertain.
立法委员如何以及为什么要权衡外交政策困境?美国国会经常寻求在国际关系中划分势力范围,但我们对一些美国议员为什么以及如何认真对待朝鲜知之甚少。本文探讨了第111届和第112届美国国会(2009年至2012年)期间对朝鲜采取的一系列措施,并确定了针对平壤核武器威胁和恶劣人权记录的立法活动的来源。实证分析表明,一些国会议员利用法案共同提案人战略,呼吁奥巴马政府修改对朝政策。调查结果揭示了为什么议员们会费心提出这种专门的外交政策法案,即使它们成为法律的前景并不确定。
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引用次数: 0
A Spear and a Shield: Dilemmas of the American Strategy in East Asia 矛与盾:美国东亚战略的困境
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2013-01-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2013.25.2.002
Geunwook Lee
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引用次数: 1
Planning for the Unthinkable: Countering a North Korean Nuclear Attack and Management of Post-Attack Scenarios 不可想象的计划:应对朝鲜核攻击和攻击后情景的管理
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2011-01-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2011.23.1.001
Bruce E. Bechtol
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引用次数: 4
Asian Security Architecture in the Growth of U.S.-China Strategic Competition in the 21st Century 21世纪中美战略竞争增长中的亚洲安全架构
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2011-01-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2011.23.1.003
J. Choi
Recognizing that the broader structure of East Asia`s regional order is going to change, this paper assumes that there are three major factors to drive and facilitate the East Asian order: (1) An existing security architecture comprised of various bilateral and multilateral mechanisms; (2) the role of America in adjusting the current security multilateralism to lead to it remaining cooperative and/or competitive; and (3) the bilateral relationship of the two powers, the United States and China. The paper argues that East Asian order has been and will be determined by the changing state of Sino-U.S. relations. Then it explores what relationship the United States and China engage in and where it is directed. The next section discusses what effect the Sino-U.S. relationship has on the security order in East Asia focusing on the major multilateral security arrangements as seen in Figure 1. To do this, the two distinct multilateral security mechanisms, the U.S.-Japan-Australia Trilateral Strategic Dialogue (TSD) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), will be analyzed. Additionally, as a bridge between the United States and China for security cooperation, the Korea-China-Japan Tripartite Cooperation Dialogue (TCD) will be explored. The future of both Sino-U.S. relations and its relations with the East Asian security order are dealt with in the conclusion. Since the current state of U.S.-China relations is a more complicated, lovehate relationship in locked interdependency, the East Asian order is characterized as a foggy, complex hybrid system. Until a power transition between the United States and China comes close to the threshold, the order will be led more by U.S. chosen bilateralism than Chinese preferred multilateralism. As the Obama administration came into office signaling greater enthusiasm for a multilateral enterprise, Washington`s concern over multilateral security architecture in the region will increase. The viability of a multilateral security institution in East Asia, supported by and with the participation of the United States, will become critical as a non-confrontational way to tame China`s rising power. As a result the Tripartite Cooperation Dialogue (TCD) among South Korea, China and Japan, and the Six-Party Talks will probably become influential as multilateral institutions in which the United States and China both share common strategic interests in East Asia. This development would lead the TCD to become a pivotal security mechanism. This then would contribute to freeing East Asian order of a hybrid and complex system.
认识到东亚地区秩序的整体结构将发生变化,本文认为推动和促进东亚秩序的主要因素有三个:(1)由各种双边和多边机制组成的现有安全架构;(2)美国在调整当前安全多边主义以使其保持合作和/或竞争方面的作用;(3)美中两大大国的双边关系。文章认为,东亚秩序已经并将由中美关系的变化决定。关系。然后,它探讨了美国和中国的关系和它的方向。下一节讨论中美关系的发展对中美关系的影响。如图1所示,中美关系对东亚安全秩序的影响主要集中在主要的多边安全安排上。为此,将分析美、日、澳三边战略对话(TSD)和上海合作组织(SCO)这两个不同的多边安全机制。此外,还将探讨作为美中安全合作桥梁的韩中日三方合作对话(TCD)。中美两国的未来。结语部分论述了中美关系及其与东亚安全秩序的关系。由于美中关系的现状是一种更加复杂的、相互依赖的爱恨关系,东亚秩序的特点是一个模糊的、复杂的混合系统。在美中权力交接接近临界点之前,国际秩序将更多地由美国选择的双边主义主导,而不是中国选择的多边主义。随着奥巴马政府上台,对多边事业表现出更大的热情,华盛顿对该地区多边安全架构的担忧将会增加。在东亚建立一个由美国支持并参与的多边安全机构的可行性,将成为遏制中国崛起的非对抗性方式的关键。因此,韩中日三方合作对话(TCD)和六方会谈很可能会成为美中两国在东亚拥有共同战略利益的多边机构,并产生影响。这一发展将使TCD成为一个关键的安全机制。这将有助于将东亚秩序从混合和复杂的体系中解放出来。
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引用次数: 0
Human security: A global responsibility to protect and provide 人类安全:保护和提供的全球责任
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2011-01-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2011.23.1.005
I. Holliday, B. Howe
For the past 15 years, the concept of human security has been promoted as a significant extension of traditional security studies. However, while human security has been present and visible in academic and practitioner discourse, it is yet truly to capture the imagination of specialists. Partly this is a result of the belligerent direction global politics has taken in the new millennium. Partly, however, it results from conceptual inadequacies internal to the notion itself. This article confronts the latter problem. It first examines the emergence of human security within the wider security studies literature, homes in on debates about human security, and draws important parallels between development and human security. It then builds on this to restate human security as freedom from fear and freedom from want, and to demonstrate how this conceptualization can be understood as a dual responsibility initially to protect and subsequently to provide. It finally considers whether a responsibility to intervene is generated by this approach. The brief conclusion summarizes the argument that this conceptualization generates a fresh way forward for human security studies.
过去15年来,人类安全的概念作为传统安全研究的重要延伸而得到推广。然而,虽然人类安全在学术和实践话语中已经存在和可见,但它还没有真正抓住专家的想象力。这在一定程度上是新千年全球政治走向好战的结果。但也有一部分原因是由于概念本身内在的概念上的不足。本文面对的是后一个问题。它首先考察了更广泛的安全研究文献中人类安全的出现,聚焦于关于人类安全的辩论,并在发展和人类安全之间得出重要的相似之处。然后,它以此为基础,重申人类安全是免于恐惧和免于匮乏的自由,并证明如何将这一概念理解为最初保护和随后提供的双重责任。最后考虑这种方法是否产生了干预的责任。简短的结论总结了这一概念为人类安全研究提供了一条新的前进道路的论点。
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引用次数: 11
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Korean Journal of Defense Analysis
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