Pub Date : 2009-09-08DOI: 10.1080/10163270903087147
A. Lankov
Abstract It is often argued that the North Korean regime, if faced with the right combination of pressure and concessions, will surrender its nuclear program. This article is critical of this viewpoint. Pyongyang's decision to go nuclear reflects long-term strategic concerns, and no amount of aid and payments will compensate for the loss of strategic advantages created by the possession of a nuclear capability. At the same time, the outside world does not have sufficiently powerful leverage at its disposal as well. Hence, a prolonged stalemate should be expected.
{"title":"Why the United States will have to accept a nuclear North Korea","authors":"A. Lankov","doi":"10.1080/10163270903087147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10163270903087147","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract It is often argued that the North Korean regime, if faced with the right combination of pressure and concessions, will surrender its nuclear program. This article is critical of this viewpoint. Pyongyang's decision to go nuclear reflects long-term strategic concerns, and no amount of aid and payments will compensate for the loss of strategic advantages created by the possession of a nuclear capability. At the same time, the outside world does not have sufficiently powerful leverage at its disposal as well. Hence, a prolonged stalemate should be expected.","PeriodicalId":43274,"journal":{"name":"Korean Journal of Defense Analysis","volume":"21 1","pages":"251-264"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2009-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10163270903087147","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"59804541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-09-08DOI: 10.1080/10163270903087378
B. Aras, Reha Yilmaz
Abstract This paper focuses on Azerbaijan's outreach toward East Asian countries and its relationship with South Korea. Despite their geographical distance from Azerbaijan, countries in the Far East, especially China, Japan, and South Korea, have demonstrated an interest in engagement and explored potential avenues of cooperation. Azerbaijan established support for its political priorities and for its stance on the Karabakh issue as prerequisites and confidence-building measures for potential investors. East Asian states easily fulfilled these two criteria, due to their geographical and ideological distance from the political dynamics of the Caucasus. South Korea showed a genuine concern for Azerbaijan's national interests and problems and played a key role in its economic development. While South Korea was a latecomer, mutual political trust and fruitful economic relations were quickly established. The Azeri administration has entrusted South Korean public and private investors with many significant curr...
{"title":"Azerbaijan's Far Eastern orientation and South Korea","authors":"B. Aras, Reha Yilmaz","doi":"10.1080/10163270903087378","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10163270903087378","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper focuses on Azerbaijan's outreach toward East Asian countries and its relationship with South Korea. Despite their geographical distance from Azerbaijan, countries in the Far East, especially China, Japan, and South Korea, have demonstrated an interest in engagement and explored potential avenues of cooperation. Azerbaijan established support for its political priorities and for its stance on the Karabakh issue as prerequisites and confidence-building measures for potential investors. East Asian states easily fulfilled these two criteria, due to their geographical and ideological distance from the political dynamics of the Caucasus. South Korea showed a genuine concern for Azerbaijan's national interests and problems and played a key role in its economic development. While South Korea was a latecomer, mutual political trust and fruitful economic relations were quickly established. The Azeri administration has entrusted South Korean public and private investors with many significant curr...","PeriodicalId":43274,"journal":{"name":"Korean Journal of Defense Analysis","volume":"21 1","pages":"329-343"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2009-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10163270903087378","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"59804562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-09-08DOI: 10.1080/10163270903087238
Linus Hagström, Christian Turesson
Abstract This article is written against the backdrop of widely discussed changes in Japanese foreign security policy in the 2000s—changes often attributed to an intensifying North Korea threat and growing rivalry with China. Employing Walt's notion of “threat” (in effect, offensive power plus aggressive intentions), the thesis of this article is that China and North Korea could be construed as increasingly threatening to Japan. The antithesis is that changes in Japanese foreign security policy have rather taken place within the context of a public discourse that has increasingly framed China and North Korea as “threats.” The article demonstrates that, while Chinese military capability has burgeoned in the past decade, North Korea has experienced something like military stagnation. Moreover, although both actors have histories of foreign aggression, their respective official discourses lack aggressive intentions vis-a-vis Japan. The article also demonstrates that while Japanese government sources have kep...
{"title":"Among threats and a “perfect excuse”: understanding change in Japanese foreign security policy","authors":"Linus Hagström, Christian Turesson","doi":"10.1080/10163270903087238","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10163270903087238","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article is written against the backdrop of widely discussed changes in Japanese foreign security policy in the 2000s—changes often attributed to an intensifying North Korea threat and growing rivalry with China. Employing Walt's notion of “threat” (in effect, offensive power plus aggressive intentions), the thesis of this article is that China and North Korea could be construed as increasingly threatening to Japan. The antithesis is that changes in Japanese foreign security policy have rather taken place within the context of a public discourse that has increasingly framed China and North Korea as “threats.” The article demonstrates that, while Chinese military capability has burgeoned in the past decade, North Korea has experienced something like military stagnation. Moreover, although both actors have histories of foreign aggression, their respective official discourses lack aggressive intentions vis-a-vis Japan. The article also demonstrates that while Japanese government sources have kep...","PeriodicalId":43274,"journal":{"name":"Korean Journal of Defense Analysis","volume":"21 1","pages":"297-314"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2009-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10163270903087238","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"59804977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-09-08DOI: 10.1080/10163270903087097
Koonyong Kim
Abstract Despite continued strains on its economy, North Korea has yet to relinquish its nuclear weapons program. Coupled with such unwavering determination and tangible actions in the form of nuclear and missile tests, the perception that North Korea is only a threat within the region of the Korean peninsula and its immediate vicinity is antiquated. In fact, given the possibilities of North Korea exporting its missile or nuclear weapons technology to states such as Syria and Iran, ignoring the implications of the security threat posed by Pyongyang as global in scope would be committing a dangerous fallacy. Without exaggerating the threat through ulterior motives far removed from pursuing peace and stability in the region, one needs to set concrete principles on which to base a coherent policy toward North Korea. This would mean correctly identifying the threat from North Korea's arsenals, as well as departing from a highly paternalistic view of the North that only seeks to make Seoul more vulnerable to t...
{"title":"Substance of North Korea's military threats and the security environment in Northeast Asia","authors":"Koonyong Kim","doi":"10.1080/10163270903087097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10163270903087097","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Despite continued strains on its economy, North Korea has yet to relinquish its nuclear weapons program. Coupled with such unwavering determination and tangible actions in the form of nuclear and missile tests, the perception that North Korea is only a threat within the region of the Korean peninsula and its immediate vicinity is antiquated. In fact, given the possibilities of North Korea exporting its missile or nuclear weapons technology to states such as Syria and Iran, ignoring the implications of the security threat posed by Pyongyang as global in scope would be committing a dangerous fallacy. Without exaggerating the threat through ulterior motives far removed from pursuing peace and stability in the region, one needs to set concrete principles on which to base a coherent policy toward North Korea. This would mean correctly identifying the threat from North Korea's arsenals, as well as departing from a highly paternalistic view of the North that only seeks to make Seoul more vulnerable to t...","PeriodicalId":43274,"journal":{"name":"Korean Journal of Defense Analysis","volume":"21 1","pages":"239-250"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2009-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10163270903087097","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"59804906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-09-08DOI: 10.1080/10163270903087394
Renato Cruz de Castro
Abstract This article discusses the Bush administration's extension of the War on Terror in Southeast Asia and this operation's main objective-the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the Philippines. It probes the ASG's history, transnational links, and terrorist operations. Then using content analysis, the article analyzes the terrorist group's primary reading material to determine its ideological affiliation with transnational Islamic militant groups. It then argues that the transnational jihadist ideology is evident in the ASG's primary reading material. The material reflects the ideas of the late Palestinian terrorist Abdullah Azzam, and by implication, those of the late Egyptian poet Sayyid Qutb. In conclusion, the article points out that the influence of jihadist ideology on the ASG is superficial, because of the widely held view that the band is a marginalized group operating at the fringes of the mainstream militant Islamic movement in Southeast Asia.
{"title":"Confronting militant Islam in Southeast Asia: the case of the Abu Sayyaf Group in the Philippines","authors":"Renato Cruz de Castro","doi":"10.1080/10163270903087394","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10163270903087394","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article discusses the Bush administration's extension of the War on Terror in Southeast Asia and this operation's main objective-the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the Philippines. It probes the ASG's history, transnational links, and terrorist operations. Then using content analysis, the article analyzes the terrorist group's primary reading material to determine its ideological affiliation with transnational Islamic militant groups. It then argues that the transnational jihadist ideology is evident in the ASG's primary reading material. The material reflects the ideas of the late Palestinian terrorist Abdullah Azzam, and by implication, those of the late Egyptian poet Sayyid Qutb. In conclusion, the article points out that the influence of jihadist ideology on the ASG is superficial, because of the widely held view that the band is a marginalized group operating at the fringes of the mainstream militant Islamic movement in Southeast Asia.","PeriodicalId":43274,"journal":{"name":"Korean Journal of Defense Analysis","volume":"21 1","pages":"345-361"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2009-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10163270903087394","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"59805384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-09-08DOI: 10.1080/10163270903087170
R. Cossa
Abstract President Obama offered to extend a hand to those who were “willing to unclench [their] fist,” and promised a clear, consistent, cooperative, and consultative approach to achieve Korean peninsula denuclearization. Unfortunately, Pyongyang chose not to cooperate, deciding instead to challenge the new American leader, in the form of a “satellite launch” that created a crisis where none would have otherwise existed. The reasons why Pyongyang chose to go down this path remain open to wide speculation. But the United States, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and others must now assume that Pyongyang has made the “strategic decision” not to give up its nuclear weapons and must now deal with this reality. What is needed now is a clearly expressed policy of containment aimed at keeping what is in North Korea in North Korea and which keeps out anything else that would help the regime develop its nuclear or missile capabilities. This does not mean that Washington is prepared to recognize North Korea as a nuclea...
{"title":"U.S. policy toward North Korea: where to go next?","authors":"R. Cossa","doi":"10.1080/10163270903087170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10163270903087170","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract President Obama offered to extend a hand to those who were “willing to unclench [their] fist,” and promised a clear, consistent, cooperative, and consultative approach to achieve Korean peninsula denuclearization. Unfortunately, Pyongyang chose not to cooperate, deciding instead to challenge the new American leader, in the form of a “satellite launch” that created a crisis where none would have otherwise existed. The reasons why Pyongyang chose to go down this path remain open to wide speculation. But the United States, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and others must now assume that Pyongyang has made the “strategic decision” not to give up its nuclear weapons and must now deal with this reality. What is needed now is a clearly expressed policy of containment aimed at keeping what is in North Korea in North Korea and which keeps out anything else that would help the regime develop its nuclear or missile capabilities. This does not mean that Washington is prepared to recognize North Korea as a nuclea...","PeriodicalId":43274,"journal":{"name":"Korean Journal of Defense Analysis","volume":"21 1","pages":"265-277"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2009-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10163270903087170","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"59804692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-09-08DOI: 10.1080/10163270903087329
Russell Ong
Abstract This article examines the basis for China's strategic convergence with Russia in the current era, as well as assesses the viability of this convergence in the longer term. It will be argue...
本文考察了当前时代中俄战略趋同的基础，并对这种趋同的长期可行性进行了评估。这将是争论…
{"title":"China's strategic convergence with Russia","authors":"Russell Ong","doi":"10.1080/10163270903087329","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10163270903087329","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article examines the basis for China's strategic convergence with Russia in the current era, as well as assesses the viability of this convergence in the longer term. It will be argue...","PeriodicalId":43274,"journal":{"name":"Korean Journal of Defense Analysis","volume":"21 1","pages":"315-328"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2009-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10163270903087329","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"59805007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Piracy around the Horn of Africa has risen to a level serious enough for the international community to take concerted action to secure an international sea lane. However, the efforts so far have been initiated mainly by the international community while regional efforts are only just beginning. In the short term, more action will have to be taken at the operational level like dispatching more ships and integrating the operations of ships already deployed to the area. In the longer term, the root causes of piracy and the grievances of the Somali people have to be addressed. In particular, there is a need to restore law and order in Somalia by supporting moderate leaders in their attempts to create a representative government.
{"title":"Piracy around the Horn of Africa","authors":"Joshua Ho","doi":"10.4000/ECHOGEO.11370","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4000/ECHOGEO.11370","url":null,"abstract":"Piracy around the Horn of Africa has risen to a level serious enough for the international community to take concerted action to secure an international sea lane. However, the efforts so far have been initiated mainly by the international community while regional efforts are only just beginning. In the short term, more action will have to be taken at the operational level like dispatching more ships and integrating the operations of ships already deployed to the area. In the longer term, the root causes of piracy and the grievances of the Somali people have to be addressed. In particular, there is a need to restore law and order in Somalia by supporting moderate leaders in their attempts to create a representative government.","PeriodicalId":43274,"journal":{"name":"Korean Journal of Defense Analysis","volume":"21 1","pages":"501-518"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2009-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70074784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-06-23DOI: 10.1080/10163270902872085
R. Scalapino
Abstract The forces of internationalism, nationalism, and communalism are vastly shaping the global stage upon which states must formulate actions necessary to sustain stability and promote economic growth. In this regard, the case of Asia represents a consolidation of both prominent progress but also persistent challenge. Despite the relatively low inter-state tensions encompassing Northeast Asia, there still remain the critical issues of Taiwan and its disputed identity, coupled with North Korea's nuclear ambitions. Here, the United States, while not a part of the region geographically, is an important variable in influencing domestic and regional policies of states. In Southeast Asia, a slightly different pattern prevails, wherein significant domestic challenges are juxtaposed with a favorable trend with respect to international relations. As such, the relative tranquility enjoyed by Southeast Asian states is to an extent offset by detrimental domestic economic policies and political divisions within b...
{"title":"Relations among Asian nations and the role of frontiers","authors":"R. Scalapino","doi":"10.1080/10163270902872085","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10163270902872085","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The forces of internationalism, nationalism, and communalism are vastly shaping the global stage upon which states must formulate actions necessary to sustain stability and promote economic growth. In this regard, the case of Asia represents a consolidation of both prominent progress but also persistent challenge. Despite the relatively low inter-state tensions encompassing Northeast Asia, there still remain the critical issues of Taiwan and its disputed identity, coupled with North Korea's nuclear ambitions. Here, the United States, while not a part of the region geographically, is an important variable in influencing domestic and regional policies of states. In Southeast Asia, a slightly different pattern prevails, wherein significant domestic challenges are juxtaposed with a favorable trend with respect to international relations. As such, the relative tranquility enjoyed by Southeast Asian states is to an extent offset by detrimental domestic economic policies and political divisions within b...","PeriodicalId":43274,"journal":{"name":"Korean Journal of Defense Analysis","volume":"21 1","pages":"123-136"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2009-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10163270902872085","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"59804245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-06-23DOI: 10.1080/10163270902872135
E. Davis
Abstract In the setting of the attention-grabbing Tibetan riots, some basic security questions arise for China. After the collapse of two communist multinational states, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, the fact that China survives as the major communist multinational state poses interesting issues regarding the management of ethnic conflicts in the twenty-first century in general, in a communist state in particular, and in an increasingly internationalized environment. For a multinational state to remain unified it is crucial to maintain political stability and economic growth, and to satisfy the cultural needs of its citizens. Clearing away the propaganda surrounding these issues is an almost impossible task. These issues are reaching a critical point in Tibet, as all parties contemplate the arrival of a new Dalai Lama.
{"title":"Tibetan separatism in China","authors":"E. Davis","doi":"10.1080/10163270902872135","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10163270902872135","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In the setting of the attention-grabbing Tibetan riots, some basic security questions arise for China. After the collapse of two communist multinational states, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, the fact that China survives as the major communist multinational state poses interesting issues regarding the management of ethnic conflicts in the twenty-first century in general, in a communist state in particular, and in an increasingly internationalized environment. For a multinational state to remain unified it is crucial to maintain political stability and economic growth, and to satisfy the cultural needs of its citizens. Clearing away the propaganda surrounding these issues is an almost impossible task. These issues are reaching a critical point in Tibet, as all parties contemplate the arrival of a new Dalai Lama.","PeriodicalId":43274,"journal":{"name":"Korean Journal of Defense Analysis","volume":"21 1","pages":"155-170"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2009-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10163270902872135","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"59804426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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