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North Korea’s Missed Opportunity: The Unique, Dovish Moment of the Overlapping Trump and Moon Presidencies 朝鲜错失的机会:特朗普和文在寅总统任期重叠的独特鸽派时刻
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2021.33.1.002
R. E. Derr
This paper argues that North Korea’s unwillingness to seriously negotiate during the 2018-2020 period of dovish outreach by American President Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in will return the North Korea policy debate to the pre-Trump status quo of containment, deterrence, sanction, and isolation, while also opening that debate to more hawkish options. North Korea failed to grasp a historically unprecedented three-year window of two overlapping dovish presidents governing its primary geopolitical opponents. Trump and Moon both aggressively sought a major inter-Korean breakthrough; they represented a unique opportunity in the long Korean stand-off for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to press his peninsular claims. Yet Pyongyang offered no serious concessions in the 2018-2020 window, and the politico-military situation on the ground in Korea is essentially unchanged today. We argue that this failure will, at minimum, encourage the reemergence of establishmentarian, status quo policies under the new American administration of President Joseph Biden. Further, North Korea’s recalcitrance in this unique dovish period will likely push the “Overton Window” of acceptable counter-North Korea policy options rightward. Harsher measures will be considered in the wake of engagement’s failure.
本文认为,在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)和韩国总统文在寅(Moon jae - Moon)的鸽派外展期间,朝鲜不愿认真谈判,这将使朝鲜政策辩论回到特朗普之前的现状,即遏制、威慑、制裁和孤立,同时也使辩论转向更强硬的选择。朝鲜未能抓住历史上前所未有的三年窗口,即两位鸽派总统重叠执政其主要地缘政治对手。特朗普和文在寅都积极寻求朝韩之间的重大突破;对于朝鲜领导人金正恩来说,这是朝鲜半岛长期对峙中一个独特的机会,可以推动他的半岛主张。然而,平壤在2018-2020年期间没有做出重大让步,朝鲜半岛的政治军事局势今天基本上没有改变。我们认为,这种失败至少会鼓励约瑟夫·拜登(Joseph Biden)总统领导下的美国新政府重新推行建制主义的维持现状政策。此外,在这个独特的鸽派时期,朝鲜的顽固态度可能会将可接受的对朝政策选择的“奥弗顿窗口”推向右倾。在接触失败后,将考虑采取更严厉的措施。
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引用次数: 1
Democracy and Diversionary Conflict: External Transparency and Domestic Constraints 民主与转移性冲突:外部透明度与国内约束
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2021.33.1.007
S. Jung
This study examines two institutional explanations of the presence or absence of diversionary conflict. The two approaches emphasize different factors―external transparency and domestic constraints, respectively―in describing the relationship between domestic institutions and diversionary actions. Up to this point, they have not been compared theoretically and empirically in an explicit way. The present study contrasts their causal explanations and tests two competing sets of hypotheses, using cases derived from directed dyad-years from 1950 to 2000. The results show that either external transparency (strategic interaction) or internal constraints (domestic checks and balances) discourages diversionary conflict, and that mature democracies, domestically constrained and externally transparent, are least likely to initiate diversionary conflict.
本研究考察了转移性冲突存在与否的两种制度解释。在描述国内制度与转移行动之间的关系时,这两种方法分别强调不同的因素——外部透明度和国内约束。到目前为止,它们还没有在理论上和经验上进行明确的比较。目前的研究对比了他们的因果解释,并测试了两组相互竞争的假设,使用了从1950年到2000年的直接双年的案例。结果表明,无论是外部透明度(战略互动)还是内部约束(国内制衡)都会阻碍转移性冲突,而成熟的民主国家,国内约束和外部透明,最不可能发起转移性冲突。
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引用次数: 0
Negotiating Nuclear Arms Control with North Korea: Why and How? 与朝鲜谈判核军备控制:为什么以及如何?
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2021.33.1.001
Toby Kim
Pressure policies to induce North Korea’s unilateral denuclearization failed to achieve measurable progress toward that objective. The consolidation of nuclear andmissile capabilities by North Korea points to the need for a new strategy to mitigate the potential for conflict: to pursue progress toward peace and denuclearization simultaneously. The most appropriate mechanism for implementing such a strategy is arms control, defined here as a progressive series of restrictions, limitations and constraints on arms (nuclear and conventional) and associated steps that reduce the risks of conflict and insulate relations against crises and escalation. Detractors of arms control for North Korea argue that it would convey status as a possessor of nuclear weapons, and that it would require accepting some level of mutual deterrence. States would need to consider such criticisms as they weigh the risks and costs of pursuing arms control compared to alternatives such as containment and deterrence. An arms control-oriented roadmap would integrate parallel progress on establishing a durable peace regime and capping and then reducing the threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons. Monitoring and verifying compliance with this type of roadmap would require a hybrid approach drawing on both traditional safeguards-style methods and novel approaches designed to build confidence.
诱导朝鲜单方面无核化的施压政策未能在实现这一目标方面取得可衡量的进展。朝鲜核能力和导弹能力的巩固表明,需要一种新的战略来缓解冲突的可能性:同时追求和平和无核化的进展。执行这一战略的最适当机制是军备控制,这里将其定义为对武器(核武器和常规武器)逐步采取的一系列限制、限制和约束以及减少冲突风险和使关系不受危机和升级影响的相关步骤。反对对朝鲜实施军备控制的人认为,这将传达出朝鲜拥有核武器的地位,而且需要接受某种程度的相互威慑。各国在权衡实行军备控制与遏制和威慑等替代办法的风险和成本时,需要考虑这些批评。以军备控制为导向的路线图将把建立持久和平机制和限制并继而减少朝鲜核武器构成的威胁两方面的并行进展结合起来。监测和核查这类路线图的遵守情况需要一种混合方法,既利用传统的保障方法,也利用旨在建立信心的新方法。
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引用次数: 7
Analysis of Electronic Warfare Capability of the People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force (PLASSF): Its Impacts and Implications on Korean Security 中国人民解放军战略支援部队电子战能力分析:对朝鲜安全的影响与启示
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2021.33.1.006
N. Park, Changhyung Lee, Soyeon Kim
This paper analyzes the electronic warfare capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force (PLASSF), established in 2015 in China. Based on the investigation, this paper aims to examine the impacts of electronic warfare capabilities of PLASSF on South Korea as well as the implications for Korean security. The core mission of the PLASSF is to perform space, cyber, electronic, and psychological warfare. Under the Network Systems Department of the PLASSF, the units for electronic warfare operates ground-based equipment, (un) manned aircraft, and electronic warfare satellites. Based on this fact, this paper argues the impacts of the PLASSF’s electronic warfare capabilities are threefold: First, the PLASSF’s manned electronic aircraft allows them to collect the electronic intelligence regarding the major military equipment not only of the Korean military but of the U.S. Forces in Korea. Second, it is also expected that the PLASSF would conduct electronic warfare activities very close to the Korean Peninsula by utilizing its unmanned stealth electronic aircraft. Third, the PLASSF is highly likely to gather signals intelligence from space via electronic warfare satellites. In this regard, it is necessary for the Korean military to 1) develop a more concrete concept of electronic warfare; 2) explore the ways to refuse China’s electronic information collection; and 3) secure the electronic warfare countermeasure weapons system.
本文分析了2015年在中国成立的中国人民解放军战略支援部队(PLASSF)的电子战能力。基于调查,本文旨在研究PLASSF电子战能力对韩国的影响以及对韩国安全的影响。PLASSF的核心任务是执行空间、网络、电子和心理战。在PLASSF的网络系统部下,电子战单位操作地基设备、(非)有人驾驶飞机和电子战卫星。基于这一事实,本文认为PLASSF电子战能力的影响有三个方面:首先,PLASSF的有人驾驶电子飞机使他们能够收集有关韩国军队和驻韩美军主要军事装备的电子情报。第二,预计解放军空军将利用无人隐形电子飞机在朝鲜半岛附近进行电子战活动。第三,PLASSF极有可能通过电子战卫星从太空收集信号情报。在这方面,韩国军队有必要1)发展一个更具体的电子战概念;2)探索拒绝中国电子信息收集的途径;3)确保电子战对抗武器系统的安全。
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引用次数: 1
The Transition of Wartime Operational Control for Entering a New Era 进入新时代的战时作战指挥权移交
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2021.33.1.004
K. Chung
The launch of an ROK-led combined defense system and the transition of wartime operational control (OPCON) will be an epochal moment in the ROK?U.S. alliance and signal the start of a new era. The study provides a historical review of OPCON, addresses the significance of wartime OPCON transition, and examines contending views on the ROK-U.S. command structure. The article analyzes the tenets and roadmap for the OPCON from a tripartite perspective, including citizens, the government, and the military. ROK-U.S. strategic communication and a gradual transition are then discussed. The study concludes by exploring the actualization of a self-reliant national defense as a sovereign state, the commencement of an ROK-led future Combined Forces Command, and mutual relations among ROK JCS, Future CFC, UNC, and USFK, along with policy recommendations.
韩国主导的联合防御体系的建立和战时作战指挥权的移交将成为韩美关系的划时代时刻联盟,标志着一个新时代的开始。该研究提供了作战指挥权的历史回顾,讨论了战时作战指挥权过渡的重要性,并审查了对韩美作战指挥权的争论观点。命令结构。本文从国民、政府、军队三方的角度分析了作战指挥权的宗旨和路线图。ROK-U.S。然后讨论了战略沟通和逐步过渡。该报告书的结论是,对主权国家自主国防的实现、韩国主导的未来联合司令部的启动、联合参谋本部、未来联合司令部、联合国军司令部、驻韩美军之间的相互关系等进行了探讨,并提出了政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
Aircraft Carrier Balancing in Northeast Asia and South Korean Carrier Program: Power, Threat, and Function 东北亚航母平衡与韩国航母计划:力量、威胁与功能
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2021.33.1.003
Jhu Ban Gil
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引用次数: 0
Capabilities-Based “Confusion”: Why Capabilities-Based Planning Systems Struggle 基于能力的“困惑”:为什么基于能力的计划系统会挣扎
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2021.33.1.005
T. Young
In the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld announced that the Department of Defense would henceforth use capabilitiesbased planning to guide the development of the armed forces. The popularity of the idea spread to many allied countries that also embraced the concept. However, the successful implementation of the method has been hindered by a number of factors: lack of an agreed lexicon, confusion in many defense organizations to the degree to which “threats” are used, inattention to policy priorities, heavy institutional analytical requirements, and a lack of acknowledgement of the importance money must play in any planning system. The paper concludes that whilst elements of the method are well-suited to providing objective data in support of senior leadership’s decision-making; alone, it is insufficient to drive planning, which is inherently a political process.
在2001年的《四年防务评估报告》中,国防部长唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德宣布,国防部今后将使用基于能力的规划来指导武装部队的发展。这一想法的流行传播到许多盟国,这些国家也接受了这一概念。然而,该方法的成功实施受到若干因素的阻碍:缺乏商定的词汇,许多国防组织对使用“威胁”的程度感到困惑,不注意政策优先事项,沉重的机构分析要求,以及不认识到金钱在任何规划系统中必须发挥的重要性。本文的结论是,虽然该方法的元素非常适合提供客观的数据,以支持高层领导的决策;它本身不足以推动计划,因为计划本身就是一个政治过程。
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引用次数: 4
Conceptualizing and Framing Economic Security?: The Case of 30 Year Russian-Korean Security Relations Tested 经济安全的概念和框架?〇考验韩俄安全关系30年的事例
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2021.33.1.008
S. Ahn
This article examines Korean-Russian relations from a new dimension of security, economic security. This is an important study of an understudied relationship in East Asia that has significant implications for the security, energy and other economic activities of the region. The objective of this article is to broaden the concept of security, conceptualize the notion of economic security and apply it to the case of bilateral relations between Moscow and Seoul. This article focuses on the securitization process of international political issues and security-building processes between two nations. Specifically, this study intends to specifically look at the following four aspects of security: nation states’ perceptions of security, securitization, the security-building process, and potential security threats. In this respect, the article begins by redefining the definition of security and economic security and applying their relevance to the Russian-South Korean bilateral relations. And then the article explores specific elements of economic security, including energy, transportation linkage, and fishery cooperation since these three elements represent core elements of economic security cooperation between two countries.
本文将从经济安全这一新的安全维度来审视韩俄关系。这是一项对东亚关系研究不足的重要研究,对该地区的安全、能源和其他经济活动具有重大影响。本文的目的是拓宽安全的概念,将经济安全的概念概念化,并将其应用于莫斯科与首尔之间的双边关系。本文的重点是国际政治问题的证券化过程和两国之间的安全建设过程。具体而言,本研究旨在具体研究安全的以下四个方面:民族国家对安全的看法、证券化、安全建设过程和潜在的安全威胁。在这方面,本文首先重新定义了安全和经济安全的定义,并将其应用于俄韩双边关系。然后探讨经济安全的具体要素,包括能源、交通运输联动和渔业合作,因为这三个要素是两国经济安全合作的核心要素。
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引用次数: 0
The Hegemonic Competition in the Indo-Pacific Region and the Making of South Korea as a Middle Sea Power 印太地区的霸权竞争与韩国的中东大国地位
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2020.32.1.001
M. Koo
A realist perspective is prevalent in relation to the newly emerging naval rivalry between the United States and China and its consequences for their neighbors. China’s drive to construct artificial islands in the South China Sea has drawn global attention, while its Belt and Road Initiative has induced the United States and Japan to counter-propose the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy. The shifting attention beyond the China Seas has everyone scrambling to protect their commercial interests and national security, which are heavily dependent on the sea lines of communication. This study examines the rivalry between the United States, China and Japan, and draws its implications for South Korea from a ‘point-line-plane’ perspective. In the face of thorny challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, South Korea needs to rejuvenate its long-lost identity as a sea power and its navy should work closely with the Vietnam People’s Navy. In particular, establishing a strategic point at one of the naval bases in southern Vietnam such as Danang, Cam Ranh or Nhơn Trạch will have significant consequences not just for their bilateral ties but also for the South China Sea region and beyond.
现实主义观点普遍存在于美国和中国之间新出现的海军竞争及其对邻国的影响。中国在南海建设人工岛引起全球关注,“一带一路”倡议促使美国和日本反制“自由开放的印太战略”。注意力转移到中国海域以外,每个人都在争先恐后地保护自己的商业利益和国家安全,这些利益和国家安全严重依赖海上交通线。本研究考察了美国、中国和日本之间的竞争,并从“点-线-面”的角度得出了其对韩国的影响。面对印度太平洋地区的棘手挑战,韩国需要恢复失去已久的海上大国身份,海军应该与越南人民海军密切合作。特别是,在岘港、金兰或Nhơn Trạch等越南南部的海军基地之一建立战略要地,不仅会对双边关系产生重大影响,还会对南中国海地区乃至整个地区产生重大影响。
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引用次数: 4
Study of Republic of Korea Air Force’s Military Capability Enhancement Measures in Preparation for Wartime Operational Control Transfer 大韩民国空军作战控制权移交准备中的军事能力增强措施研究
IF 0.4 4区 社会学 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.22883/KJDA.2020.32.1.005
K. Cho, Seung pil Kim, A. Bossard, Dong-Jeong Kim
The Republic of Korea and the United States have agreed to the terms of the Wartime OPCON Transfer contingent upon meeting specific conditions. The OPCON Transfer should lead to improved security of the Korean Peninsula while improving the ROK-U.S. combined defense capability. Hence, the Korea Armed Forces must exert efforts to acquire the capabilities and conditions required for the transfer. Further, “the United States’ supplementation and continuation capabilities” and “the provision and employment of extended deterrence methods and strategic assets” must be continued. The way to firmly maintain security over the Korean Peninsula is for the ROK military to possess capabilities required for the OPCON Transfer. Of these capabilities, ROKAF’s capability is crucial and the ISR+PGMs capabilities must be obtained without fail. Accurate information on military threats and the ability to strike those targets are prerequisites to winning wars. In pursuing the national security strategy task of “strengthening national defense capabilities based on the ROK-U.S. alliance,” with support from the general public, rational decisions on airpower requirements and the measurement of enemies’ airpower must be made at the national strategic level, to determine what it would take for the ROKAF to lead ROK-U.S. combined air operations. Concurrently, we need to be ready and be prepared to respond to the expansion of neighboring nations’ airpower capability.
大韩民国和美国已同意战时作战控制权移交的条款,视具体条件而定。作战控制权移交应能改善朝鲜半岛的安全,同时提高韩美联合防御能力。因此,韩国武装部队必须努力获得移交所需的能力和条件。此外,“美国的补充和延续能力”以及“提供和使用扩展威慑方法和战略资产”必须继续下去。坚定维护朝鲜半岛安全的方法是让韩国军队拥有作战控制权移交所需的能力。在这些能力中,ROKAF的能力至关重要,必须毫无疑问地获得ISR+PGM能力。关于军事威胁的准确信息和打击这些目标的能力是赢得战争的先决条件。在执行“基于韩美联盟加强国防能力”的国家安全战略任务时,在公众的支持下,必须在国家战略层面对空中力量需求和敌人空中力量的测量做出合理的决定,以确定皇家空军领导韩美联合空中行动需要什么。与此同时,我们需要做好准备,应对邻国空中力量的扩张。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Korean Journal of Defense Analysis
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