This article considers the politics and economics of arms trade in the Persian Gulf from the perspective of the importers, rather than the usual focus on the exporters. It analyses the purposes that weapons purchases have served over the last three decades for three of the most important Middle Eastern arms importers—the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. This shows an increasingly blurred divide between the political, economic and strategic dimensions of the arms trade. It suggests an important shift in the relations between the arms client/importing states, supplier/exporting states, and defense industrial companies.
{"title":"The weaponized Gulf riyal politik(s) and shifting dynamics of the global arms trade","authors":"Emma Soubrier","doi":"10.15355/epsj.15.1.49","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.15.1.49","url":null,"abstract":"This article considers the politics and economics of arms trade in the Persian Gulf from the perspective of the importers, rather than the usual focus on the exporters. It analyses the purposes that weapons purchases have served over the last three decades for three of the most important Middle Eastern arms importers—the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. This shows an increasingly blurred divide between the political, economic and strategic dimensions of the arms trade. It suggests an important shift in the relations between the arms client/importing states, supplier/exporting states, and defense industrial companies.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47250773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Numerous countries require that defense manufacturers commit to substantial offsets when defense materiel is purchased. However, there is extremely limited data regarding the economic efficacy or rationality of offsets. Recent disclosures related to South Africa’s controversial 1999 “Arms Deal” about the economic performance of its sizeable offset obligations provides solid evidence that the manipulation of offset scoring systems allowed defense manufacturers to invest far less than originally contracted. The South African experience indicates that there are likely to be structural features inherent in all civilian offsets flowing from defense contracts that exert a downward pressure on the actual economic investments delivered by defense manufacturers.
{"title":"Offsets in practice: The experience of South Africa","authors":"P. Holden","doi":"10.15355/epsj.15.1.20","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.15.1.20","url":null,"abstract":"Numerous countries require that defense manufacturers commit to substantial offsets when defense materiel is purchased. However, there is extremely limited data regarding the economic efficacy or rationality of offsets. Recent disclosures related to South Africa’s controversial 1999 “Arms Deal” about the economic performance of its sizeable offset obligations provides solid evidence that the manipulation of offset scoring systems allowed defense manufacturers to invest far less than originally contracted. The South African experience indicates that there are likely to be structural features inherent in all civilian offsets flowing from defense contracts that exert a downward pressure on the actual economic investments delivered by defense manufacturers.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"15 1","pages":"20-30"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44715829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
There is a near-consensus among scholars and policymakers that the principal factor leading to Brazil’s arms industry crisis was its dependence on exports. However, the diffusion of the arms export-dependence argument contrasts with the lack of empirical support for it. Currently, there are no recent studies consistently estimating the overall size of Brazil’s arms production nor its reliance on external markets. Without a proper measurement of Brazil’s domestic procurement capacity, any assessment of its external dependence is only partial. To address this issue, this article uses data on domestic procurement previously introduced by the author to re-evaluate Brazil’s dependence on arms exports. While certainly important, the export-dependence argument has been overstated. Indeed, a fall in demand in the late 1980s led to a major decrease in Brazilian arms exports. However, the state managed to absorb a significant part of the production until mid-1990s. The data on domestic procurement sheds new light on institutional explanations for Brazil’s arms industry crisis.
{"title":"Arms for export? A reappraisal of the Brazilian arms industry","authors":"D. Silva","doi":"10.15355/epsj.15.1.31","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.15.1.31","url":null,"abstract":"There is a near-consensus among scholars and policymakers that the principal factor leading to Brazil’s arms industry crisis was its dependence on exports. However, the diffusion of the arms export-dependence argument contrasts with the lack of empirical support for it. Currently, there are no recent studies consistently estimating the overall size of Brazil’s arms production nor its reliance on external markets. Without a proper measurement of Brazil’s domestic procurement capacity, any assessment of its external dependence is only partial. To address this issue, this article uses data on domestic procurement previously introduced by the author to re-evaluate Brazil’s dependence on arms exports. While certainly important, the export-dependence argument has been overstated. Indeed, a fall in demand in the late 1980s led to a major decrease in Brazilian arms exports. However, the state managed to absorb a significant part of the production until mid-1990s. The data on domestic procurement sheds new light on institutional explanations for Brazil’s arms industry crisis.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"15 1","pages":"31-38"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45463035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We consider revolutions and civil war involving an incumbent, a challenger, and the population. Revolutions are classified into eight outcomes. In four outcomes incumbent repression occurs (viewed as providing sub-threshold benefits such as public goods to the population). Accommodation occurs in the other four outcomes (benefits provision above a threshold). The incumbent and challenger fight each other. The incumbent may win and retain power or else lose, thereby causing standoff or coalition. In a standoff, which is costly, no one backs down and uncertainty exists about who is in power. In a coalition, which is less costly, the incumbent and challenger cooperate, compromise, and negotiate their differences. If the population successfully revolts against the incumbent, the challenger replaces the incumbent. Eighty-seven revolutions during 1961–2011, including the recent Arab spring revolutions, are classified into the eight outcomes. When repressive, the incumbent loses 46 revolutions, remains in power through 21 revolutions, and builds a coalition after 12 revolutions. When accommodative, the incumbent loses seven revolutions and builds a coalition after one revolution. The 87 revolutions are classified across geographic regions and by time-period.
{"title":"The incumbent, challenger, and population during revolution and civil war","authors":"K. Hausken, Mthuli Ncube","doi":"10.15355/epsj.14.2.32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.14.2.32","url":null,"abstract":"We consider revolutions and civil war involving an incumbent, a challenger, and the population. Revolutions are classified into eight outcomes. In four outcomes incumbent repression occurs (viewed as providing sub-threshold benefits such as public goods to the population). Accommodation occurs in the other four outcomes (benefits provision above a threshold). The incumbent and challenger fight each other. The incumbent may win and retain power or else lose, thereby causing standoff or coalition. In a standoff, which is costly, no one backs down and uncertainty exists about who is in power. In a coalition, which is less costly, the incumbent and challenger cooperate, compromise, and negotiate their differences. If the population successfully revolts against the incumbent, the challenger replaces the incumbent. Eighty-seven revolutions during 1961–2011, including the recent Arab spring revolutions, are classified into the eight outcomes. When repressive, the incumbent loses 46 revolutions, remains in power through 21 revolutions, and builds a coalition after 12 revolutions. When accommodative, the incumbent loses seven revolutions and builds a coalition after one revolution. The 87 revolutions are classified across geographic regions and by time-period.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42375700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With a view toward two purposes, the article examines measures of United States military expenditure. It first discusses what types of data would be most suitable for the analysis of the economic burden of such expenditure and it explains, second, why existing databases with U.S. (and global) military expenditure coverage have limited validity, and therefore utility, for the first purpose. The article advances the concepts of minimal and maximal augmented military expenditure measures to better capture the full economic resource burden imposed on an economy than do the presently available measures. The difference of current measures to the proposed augmented measures is not primarily one of an intercept change but mostly of a slope change. The article claims that, by fiscal year 2018, the economic burden imposed by military expenditure on the U.S. economy when using the augmented measures is about double the size of the burden as measured by all of the currently available measures. Since, to date, most empirical work on the effects of military expenditure on economies tends to rely on inappropriate measures, misleading findings may have resulted.
{"title":"Don’t just click 'download': The case of U.S. military expenditure data","authors":"J. Brauer","doi":"10.15355/epsj.14.2.55","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.14.2.55","url":null,"abstract":"With a view toward two purposes, the article examines measures of United States military expenditure. It first discusses what types of data would be most suitable for the analysis of the economic burden of such expenditure and it explains, second, why existing databases with U.S. (and global) military expenditure coverage have limited validity, and therefore utility, for the first purpose. The article advances the concepts of minimal and maximal augmented military expenditure measures to better capture the full economic resource burden imposed on an economy than do the presently available measures. The difference of current measures to the proposed augmented measures is not primarily one of an intercept change but mostly of a slope change. The article claims that, by fiscal year 2018, the economic burden imposed by military expenditure on the U.S. economy when using the augmented measures is about double the size of the burden as measured by all of the currently available measures. Since, to date, most empirical work on the effects of military expenditure on economies tends to rely on inappropriate measures, misleading findings may have resulted.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"16 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41302696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article considers the determinants of conflict in Africa. It revisits the greed versus grievance debate to consider the specific regional context and changing nature of conflict in Africa. This is a literature that has grown rapidly in economics and political science, but some recent developments in modeling and conceptualization are providing important new contributions. The article uses the zero-inflated ordered probit technique that deals with the problem of excess zeros in datasets, revisits the definition of conflict, and improves upon some proxy measures. It also considers the substantive as well as statistical significance of the variables. Changes in the technique used provide more support for the influence of grievance terms than given credit for with the usual probit model approach. Both greed and grievance determine conflict in Africa.
{"title":"Conflict determinants in Africa","authors":"J. Paul Dunne, Nan Tian","doi":"10.15355/epsj.14.2.21","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.14.2.21","url":null,"abstract":"This article considers the determinants of conflict in Africa. It revisits the greed versus grievance debate to consider the specific regional context and changing nature of conflict in Africa. This is a literature that has grown rapidly in economics and political science, but some recent developments in modeling and conceptualization are providing important new contributions. The article uses the zero-inflated ordered probit technique that deals with the problem of excess zeros in datasets, revisits the definition of conflict, and improves upon some proxy measures. It also considers the substantive as well as statistical significance of the variables. Changes in the technique used provide more support for the influence of grievance terms than given credit for with the usual probit model approach. Both greed and grievance determine conflict in Africa.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48085696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The economic effects of terror attacks have been extensively examined in the literature. Yet there is a paucity of empirical research investigating their effect on welfare. Existing studies suggest that, in addition to economic costs, terror also imposes social costs. Using both micro-level data at the individual level and macro-level data at the provincial level, this article examines the association of terror and happiness in Turkey. To address income endogeneity, the conditional mixed process estimation method is employed. The results indicate that while a bidirectional relationship between happiness and income level exists, terror negatively affects happiness. Additional factors such as perceived relative income, gender, employment status, and household size have significant effects on individual wellbeing as well. The findings suggest that measuring only the economic costs of terror fails to capture the full extent of the costs imposed on society.
{"title":"The effects of terrorism on happiness: Evidence from Turkey","authors":"Julide Yildirim, Tekin Kose, Gizem Tanrivere","doi":"10.15355/epsj.14.2.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.14.2.5","url":null,"abstract":"The economic effects of terror attacks have been extensively examined in the literature. Yet there is a paucity of empirical research investigating their effect on welfare. Existing studies suggest that, in addition to economic costs, terror also imposes social costs. Using both micro-level data at the individual level and macro-level data at the provincial level, this article examines the association of terror and happiness in Turkey. To address income endogeneity, the conditional mixed process estimation method is employed. The results indicate that while a bidirectional relationship between happiness and income level exists, terror negatively affects happiness. Additional factors such as perceived relative income, gender, employment status, and household size have significant effects on individual wellbeing as well. The findings suggest that measuring only the economic costs of terror fails to capture the full extent of the costs imposed on society.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41838799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Currently there exist no data series comparing arms production values among countries. The article outlines three methods for generating such data series based largely on already available data series relevant to arms production, in particular series on arms imports and exports, procurement, and turnover figures from the world’s largest arms producing companies. All three methods have major shortcomings and limitations but with additional effort in data collection they can provide a basis for comparing arms production values among countries as well as for regional and global totals. Furthermore, as the three methods use different definitions of the scope of arms production, comparison of the data produced by them can provide additional insights.
{"title":"Combining data on military demand and supply for arms production estimates","authors":"M. Brzoska","doi":"10.15355/epsj.14.2.42","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.14.2.42","url":null,"abstract":"Currently there exist no data series comparing arms production values among countries. The article outlines three methods for generating such data series based largely on already available data series relevant to arms production, in particular series on arms imports and exports, procurement, and turnover figures from the world’s largest arms producing companies. All three methods have major shortcomings and limitations but with additional effort in data collection they can provide a basis for comparing arms production values among countries as well as for regional and global totals. Furthermore, as the three methods use different definitions of the scope of arms production, comparison of the data produced by them can provide additional insights.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45513131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The flow of foreign fighters leaving for Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic has slowed, but they often still pose a serious threat, either by encouraging others toward violence or by directly assisting themselves in a terrorist attack after their return. This article studies the effect of a country’s active involvement in a conflict zone on the flow of foreign fighters. Specifically, we test whether a nation’s participation in the international coalition against Daesh influences its number of foreign fighters. Despite the small sample size resulting from limited official data on foreign fighters, we report several interesting insights for cautious interpretation and only regarding the countries included. Findings from a negative binomial model suggest that a country’s active international role against Daesh also increases the foreign fighters coming from that country. Hence, it is important to keep in mind that the cost of a military intervention can be higher than the cost of the operation itself. Policymakers should also account for the cost of the increased number of foreign fighters and the resulting threat.
{"title":"Participation in the international coalition against Daesh and the rise of foreign fighters","authors":"C. D. Bois, C. Buts","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.14.1.60","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.14.1.60","url":null,"abstract":"The flow of foreign fighters leaving for Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic has slowed, but they often still pose a serious threat, either by encouraging others toward violence or by directly assisting themselves in a terrorist attack after their return. This article studies the effect of a country’s active involvement in a conflict zone on the flow of foreign fighters. Specifically, we test whether a nation’s participation in the international coalition against Daesh influences its number of foreign fighters. Despite the small sample size resulting from limited official data on foreign fighters, we report several interesting insights for cautious interpretation and only regarding the countries included. Findings from a negative binomial model suggest that a country’s active international role against Daesh also increases the foreign fighters coming from that country. Hence, it is important to keep in mind that the cost of a military intervention can be higher than the cost of the operation itself. Policymakers should also account for the cost of the increased number of foreign fighters and the resulting threat.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2019-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66908628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article examines the effects of fifteen major terror attacks perpetrated in the U.S. and Europe between 2001 and 2017 on a general global stock market index as well as on industry-specific indices, namely (1) airlines, (2) global hotels, restaurants, and leisure (hospitality), and (3) global utilities. Using an event-study method, we show that attacks tend to result in significant negative abnormal returns on the day of attack which, on occasion, persist for a few days. As expected, adverse market effects appear more pronounced, in terms of magnitude and persistence, for the global airline and hospitality industries than for the global utilities industry. Attacks in Europe since 2015 show no adverse global market effects, with two late exceptions (the London Bridge and Barcelona attacks, both in 2017). This might suggest that just when investors and markets seemed to have learned to cope with attacks, these two latter events caused some concern again. Implications of our findings for short- and long-term global investor strategy are discussed.
{"title":"The impact of terror attacks on global sectoral capital markets: An empirical study","authors":"Stelios N. Markoulis, N. Neofytou","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.14.1.46","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.14.1.46","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the effects of fifteen major terror attacks perpetrated in the U.S. and Europe between 2001 and 2017 on a general global stock market index as well as on industry-specific indices, namely (1) airlines, (2) global hotels, restaurants, and leisure (hospitality), and (3) global utilities. Using an event-study method, we show that attacks tend to result in significant negative abnormal returns on the day of attack which, on occasion, persist for a few days. As expected, adverse market effects appear more pronounced, in terms of magnitude and persistence, for the global airline and hospitality industries than for the global utilities industry. Attacks in Europe since 2015 show no adverse global market effects, with two late exceptions (the London Bridge and Barcelona attacks, both in 2017). This might suggest that just when investors and markets seemed to have learned to cope with attacks, these two latter events caused some concern again. Implications of our findings for short- and long-term global investor strategy are discussed.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2019-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44684477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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