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Symposium on Middle East and North African (MENA) conflict. Part 1: An introduction 中东和北非冲突专题讨论会。第一部分:引言
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-04-25 DOI: 10.15355/EPSJ.16.1.26
Dina Mansour-Ille, Hamid E. Ali
Since their independence, countries across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have witnessed subsequent waves of social and political conflicts. Armed and non-armed conflicts have almost become a defining feature of a region that has been struggling to find its own identity and a system that best represents its diverse communities and guarantees stability. Calibrated post-war power-sharing formulas of governance have produced authoritarianism, clientelism, elitism and a political post-war economy, where corruption, nepotism, injustice, and crony capitalism are rampant.
自独立以来,中东和北非国家相继发生了一波又一波的社会和政治冲突。武装冲突和非武装冲突几乎已成为该地区的一个决定性特征,该地区一直在努力寻找自己的身份和最能代表其多样化社区并保证稳定的制度。经过校准的战后权力分享治理模式产生了威权主义、客户主义、精英主义和战后政治经济,腐败、裙带关系、不公正和裙带资本主义猖獗。
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引用次数: 0
Forests, peoples, and governments: Persistent land-use conflict in Northern Thailand 森林、人民和政府:泰国北部持续的土地使用冲突
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-10-19 DOI: 10.15355/epjs15.2.19
Khemarat Talerngsri
Land-use conflict in Northern Thailand has led to large-scale deforestation. This article suggests two reasons why this conflict has not been resolved despite the many legal and institutional approaches taken by Thai governments over the decades. First, conflicting directions embedded within the national policymaking level caused uncertainty for policy implementors at ministerial levels. Second, policy-drivers at the local level interacted with the specific socioeconomic context of upland residents in a way to make land-use conflict persistent. Contradictory messages by top policymakers, combined with the national ministries’ focus on purely functional tasks, diminished the importance of a local area-based approach necessary for land-use conflict resolution. Additionally, vested interests favoring agricultural expansion into the forests have been more diverse and influential than those favoring forest conservation; the former having tools at hand to incentivize smallholders to encroach into forested areas. Further driving agricultural expansion was that, in a management vacuum, local private sector actors acted as the de facto policy coordinators for the fragmented government local operations; however, on the forest conservation front, there was no coordinating body. This imbalanced situation has proved fertile soil for conflict.
泰国北部的土地使用冲突导致了大规模的森林砍伐。这篇文章提出了两个原因,即尽管泰国政府几十年来采取了许多法律和制度措施,但这场冲突仍未得到解决。首先,国家政策制定层面的相互矛盾的方向给部长级的政策执行者带来了不确定性。其次,地方一级的政策驱动因素与高地居民的特定社会经济背景相互作用,使土地使用冲突持续存在。高层决策者发出的相互矛盾的信息,加上国家部委对纯粹职能任务的关注,削弱了解决土地使用冲突所需的基于地方的方法的重要性。此外,支持农业向森林扩张的既得利益者比支持森林保护的既得权益者更具多样性和影响力;前者手头有激励小农户侵占森林地区的工具。进一步推动农业扩张的是,在管理真空中,地方私营部门行为者充当了分散的政府地方业务的事实上的政策协调员;然而,在森林保护方面,没有协调机构。事实证明,这种不平衡的局势是冲突的肥沃土壤。
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引用次数: 4
Protracted statelessness and nationalitylessness among the Lahu, Akha and Tai-Yai in northern Thailand: Problem areas and the vital role of health insurance status 泰国北部拉胡人、阿卡人和泰雅伊人长期无国籍和无国籍:问题领域和医疗保险地位的重要作用
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-10-19 DOI: 10.15355/epsj.15.2.36
Chantal Herberholz
Thailand has one of the largest stateless populations in the world. Stateless people are denied access to basic rights and services, driving inequality and discrimination and threatening peace and security. This article aims to explore the problems that stateless people are facing in their daily lives, with a focus on healthcare services, health insurance coverage, and mobility. Primary data were collected in 2020 from 108 stateless and nationalityless adults in Chiang Mai province, belonging to three ethnic minorities, and analyzed using a mixed methods approach. The respondents are exposed to daily environmental stressors, the most serious being exclusion from the Universal Coverage Scheme, mobility restrictions and the absence of land rights. While out-of-pocket health expenditures increase financial vulnerability, a lack of health insurance is also associated with perceived poor quality of care and unmet healthcare needs. However, observed differences among the three ethnic groups highlight that some problems are specific to individual ethnic groups and not necessarily a consequence of citizenship problems. Given the experience Thailand has gained in achieving universal health coverage for Thai citizens, there is an opportunity to address the healthcare plight of Thailand’s stateless and nationalityless population through prioritizing the expansion and improvement of the existing Health Insurance for People with Citizenship Problems policy.
泰国是世界上无国籍人口最多的国家之一。无国籍者无法获得基本权利和服务,加剧了不平等和歧视,威胁到和平与安全。本文旨在探讨无国籍人士在日常生活中面临的问题,重点是医疗保健服务、医疗保险覆盖面和流动性。研究人员于2020年从清迈省的108名无国籍和无国籍成年人中收集了主要数据,这些成年人属于三个少数民族,并使用混合方法进行了分析。受访者每天都面临环境压力,最严重的是被排除在全民覆盖计划之外、流动限制和缺乏土地权利。虽然自付医疗支出增加了财务脆弱性,但缺乏医疗保险也与人们认为的低质量护理和未满足的医疗保健需求有关。然而,观察到的三个民族之间的差异突出表明,有些问题是个别民族特有的,不一定是公民身份问题的结果。鉴于泰国在为泰国公民实现全民健康覆盖方面所取得的经验,有机会通过优先扩大和改进现有的有公民身份问题的人健康保险政策来解决泰国无国籍和无国籍人口的保健困境。
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引用次数: 4
Historical origins of land rights insecurity and implications for conflict in Thailand 土地权利不安全的历史根源及其对泰国冲突的影响
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-10-19 DOI: 10.15355/epsj.15.2.5
Jessica Vechbanyongratana, Kawita Niwatananun
This article explores the historical origins of land rights insecurity and its implications for landlessness, poverty, and contemporary conflict in Thailand. The Siamese (now Thai) government adopted the Torrens system of land administration in 1901 as part of a larger strategy to curb colonial territorial expansion in Southeast Asia. Although the Torrens system is generally associated with strong property rights, its incomplete and uneven adoption led to widespread and long-running land rights insecurity and landlessness. This article presents two case studies that demonstrate these consequences. First, the expropriation of land through the exploitation of ambiguous land rights and the implementation of new land laws. Second, the long-run associations between land rights insecurity, low levels of productive investments in agriculture, and poverty. Consequent landlessness and poverty in agricultural communities have, in turn, led to recent protests and violence in Thailand.
本文探讨了土地权利不安全的历史根源及其对泰国无地、贫困和当代冲突的影响。暹罗(现泰国)政府于1901年采用托伦斯土地管理制度,作为遏制东南亚殖民领土扩张的更大战略的一部分。尽管托伦斯制度通常与强大的产权有关,但其不完全和不均衡的采用导致了广泛和长期的土地权利不安全和无地现象。本文介绍了两个案例研究来证明这些后果。首先,通过开发模糊的土地权利和实施新的土地法来征收土地。第二,土地权利不安全、农业生产性投资水平低和贫困之间的长期联系。农业社区的无地和贫困反过来又导致了泰国最近的抗议和暴力事件。
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引用次数: 0
Income inequality and conflicts: A Gini decomposition analysis 收入不平等与冲突:一个基尼系数分解分析
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-10-19 DOI: 10.15355/epsj.15.2.66
I. Sarntisart
There has been little research examining how income inequality may or may not contribute to the “grievance” aspect of conflict. For the most part, the measure used is the traditional Gini index, which is suitable to reflect vertical inequality (VI) rather than horizontal inequality (HI). Calculating HI requires the ability to decompose inequality indices, especially the Gini index, into a within-subgroup component and a between-subgroup component. There exists a long-standing stream of literature discussing how to decompose the Gini index. This article discusses the shortcomings of existing Gini decomposition methods and proposes a novel method that divides the Gini index into within-subgroup and across-subgroup components. This novel method is then applied to the case of Thailand in the years 2009–2017. The differences in the two components derived from the method of this article and those of existing methods are large. In addition, the HI measure this article introduces is also large relative to non-Gini measures such as the Theil and Shorrocks indices. Therefore conflict-related papers that include an existing Gini decomposition and HI measure among their independent variables may wish to test their models with those of this article and other measures—to examine if the results are consistent and to mitigate a risk of misleading policymakers.
关于收入不平等可能或可能不会导致冲突的“不满”方面的研究很少。在大多数情况下,使用的是传统的基尼指数,它更适合反映垂直不平等(VI),而不是水平不平等(HI)。计算HI需要将不平等指数,特别是基尼系数分解为子组内成分和子组间成分的能力。长期以来,有大量文献讨论如何分解基尼系数。本文讨论了现有基尼系数分解方法的不足,提出了一种将基尼系数划分为子组内和子组间两部分的新方法。然后将这种新方法应用于2009-2017年的泰国案例。本文方法导出的两个分量与现有方法差异较大。此外,本文引入的HI指标相对于非基尼系数指标(如Theil和Shorrocks指数)也很大。因此,在独立变量中包含现有基尼系数分解和HI测量的冲突相关论文可能希望用本文和其他测量来测试他们的模型,以检查结果是否一致,并减轻误导政策制定者的风险。
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引用次数: 1
Capital flows and political conflicts: Evidence from Thailand 资本流动与政治冲突:来自泰国的证据
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-10-19 DOI: 10.15355/epsj.15.2.83
Pongsak Luangaram, Yuthana Sethapramote
How do domestic political conflicts affect capital flows into Thailand? This article advances the current understanding in two ways. First, it adopts a new method for measuring political uncertainty using Thai-language newspapers over the past 20 years. Given that the nature of political conflicts is multi-faceted, these measures cover the various key components of Thai political tensions—both within and outside of parliament. Second, how different types of tensions affect capital flows are examined using a quantile regression framework—allowing an examination of effects upon the overall distribution of capital flows. The empirical results indicate that Thai political conflicts significantly and adversely affect both foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment at the left tails of their distribution. The results also highlight how different types of political conflicts affect capital flows in different ways. For example, uncertainty about a military coup and government measures regarding martial law or emergency decrees have a strong negative effect upon foreign direct investment flows; whereas heightened political protest and news about constitutional reform play a significant role in explaining the risk reversal of foreign portfolio investment flows.
国内政治冲突如何影响流入泰国的资本?这篇文章从两个方面推进了目前的理解。首先,它采用了一种新的方法来衡量过去20年来泰语报纸的政治不确定性。鉴于政治冲突的性质是多方面的,这些措施涵盖了泰国议会内外政治紧张局势的各个关键组成部分。其次,使用分位数回归框架来研究不同类型的紧张局势如何影响资本流动,从而可以研究对资本流动总体分布的影响。实证结果表明,泰国的政治冲突对外国直接投资和外国有价证券投资的分布都有显著的不利影响。研究结果还强调了不同类型的政治冲突如何以不同的方式影响资本流动。例如,军事政变的不确定性以及政府关于戒严令或紧急法令的措施对外国直接投资流动产生了强烈的负面影响;而政治抗议的加剧和有关宪法改革的消息在解释外国投资组合流动的风险逆转方面发挥了重要作用。
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引用次数: 2
Poverty and conflict in Thailand’s Deep South 泰国南部腹地的贫困和冲突
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-10-19 DOI: 10.15355/epsj.15.2.53
Sawarai Boonyamanond, Papusson Chaiwat
Thailand’s so-called Deep South has experienced much deadly violence since the early 2000s. This article investigates its determining factors in the context of the larger civil unrest/civil war literature—work on Southeast Asia being sparse and work on Thailand almost non-existent. The focus is on 37 sub-provincial districts of four of Thailand’s 77 provinces covering the years from 2012 to 2019. Centering on descriptive statistics with additional panel regressions, it is found that reduced poverty incidence, increased educational attainment for males, and increased district-level per capita income are all associated with reduced conflict intensity (a smaller number of conflict-related deaths). In contrast, ethno-religious backgrounds and certain geographic features are not associated with either increases or decreases in conflict-related deaths.
自21世纪初以来,泰国所谓的南部腹地经历了许多致命的暴力事件。本文在更大的内乱/内战文学背景下调查其决定因素——关于东南亚的作品很少,关于泰国的作品几乎不存在。重点是泰国77个省中4个省的37个副省级区,涵盖2012年至2019年。以附加的小组回归的描述性统计为中心,发现贫穷发生率的降低、男性受教育程度的提高和地区一级人均收入的增加都与冲突强度的降低(与冲突有关的死亡人数减少)有关。相反,种族宗教背景和某些地理特征与冲突相关死亡人数的增加或减少无关。
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引用次数: 0
Red flags for arms trade corruption 武器贸易腐败的危险信号
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-04-17 DOI: 10.15355/epsj.15.1.5
Sam Perlo-Freeman
The international arms trade is highly prone to corruption. Reasons for this include the size and technical complexity of deals, the secrecy and lack of transparency surrounding the trade and the broader military sector, and the crowded nature of the arms trade where exporting nations and companies are often desperate to make sales to maintain their business and technological capabilities. But which arms deals are most likely to be corrupt? This article considers some of the “red flags” for corruption in the arms trade, including those relating to the buyer, those relating to the seller, and those relating to the deal itself, most notably the use of agents or intermediaries, and the role of offsets. The article also argues that corruption in the arms trade is a function of its very close connection with political power in both the buyer and seller country. Major arms deals are frequently regarded as being of strategic political importance by exporting governments, while opportunities for political finance are often a motivating factor for corruption for both buyers and sellers.
国际军火贸易很容易出现腐败。造成这种情况的原因包括交易的规模和技术复杂性,贸易和更广泛的军事部门的保密和缺乏透明度,以及武器贸易的拥挤性,出口国和公司往往不顾一切地进行销售,以保持其业务和技术能力。但是哪些武器交易最有可能腐败呢?本文考虑了武器贸易中腐败的一些“危险信号”,包括与买方有关的,与卖方有关的,以及与交易本身有关的,最明显的是代理人或中间人的使用,以及抵消的作用。文章还认为,武器贸易中的腐败是其与买方和卖方国家的政治权力密切相关的一个功能。大型武器交易通常被出口国政府视为具有战略政治重要性的交易,而政治融资的机会往往是买卖双方腐败的诱因。
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引用次数: 0
14 empty airframes: public–private relations in the Swedish arms industry 14个空机身:瑞典军火工业的公私关系
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-04-17 DOI: 10.15355/epsj.15.1.39
Linda Åkerström
In February 2013, the Swedish Defense Materiel Administration ordered 14 empty airframes in an effort to keep production lines open at the national arms producer Saab. This unusual example of state support is a reflection of the tight-knit relationship between state actors and the arms industry in Sweden. This article provides a case study of the political and economic factors that contributed to the order. It analyses the Swedish history of armed neutrality and military non-alignment as a driver of contemporary procurement and arms trade policies, and the formation of a “partially captive” Swedish arms market—where orders to Saab made up 60 percent of the Swedish arms procurement budget in 2018.
2013年2月,瑞典国防物资管理局(Swedish Defense Materiel Administration)订购了14架空机身,以保持国家武器生产商萨博(Saab)的生产线畅通。这个国家支持的不同寻常的例子反映了国家行为者与瑞典军火工业之间紧密的关系。本文提供了促成秩序的政治和经济因素的案例研究。它分析了瑞典武装中立和军事不结盟的历史,作为当代采购和武器贸易政策的驱动因素,以及“部分俘虏”瑞典武器市场的形成-萨博的订单占2018年瑞典武器采购预算的60%。
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引用次数: 0
Strategic choices by the incumbent and challenger during revolution and civil war 革命和内战期间在位者和挑战者的战略选择
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-04-17 DOI: 10.15355/epsj.15.1.58
K. Hausken, Mthuli Ncube
A game is developed where an incumbent chooses between benefits provision to the population, which decreases the probability of revolution endogenously, and fighting with a challenger. Thereafter the challenger chooses a degree of fighting, which determines rent sharing. A successful revolution enables the challenger to replace the incumbent. An unsuccessful revolution preserves the status quo, or causes standoff or coalition. The four possibilities of incumbent replacement, status quo, standoff, or coalition combine with the incumbent either repressing (providing benefits below a threshold) or accommodating (providing benefits above a threshold) the population, for a total of eight outcomes. Such a rich conceptualization of eight outcomes of civil war is missing in the literature. We show how an advantaged versus disadvantaged incumbent deters or fights with a challenger, and provides versus does not provide benefits to the population. The eight outcomes are mapped to 87 revolutions 1961-2011.
在这个游戏中,在位者在向民众提供利益(这会减少革命的可能性)和与挑战者战斗之间做出选择。之后,挑战者选择战斗的程度,这决定了租金的分配。一场成功的革命能使挑战者取代在位者。一场不成功的革命要么维持现状,要么导致僵局或联盟。在职者替代、维持现状、对峙或联合的四种可能性与在职者抑制(提供低于阈值的福利)或容纳(提供高于阈值的福利)人口相结合,总共有八种结果。如此丰富的内战八种结果的概念化在文献中是缺失的。我们展示了优势在位者与劣势在位者如何威慑或对抗挑战者,以及如何为民众提供利益与不提供利益。这八项结果被映射到1961年至2011年的87次革命。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Economics of Peace and Security Journal
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