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Macroeconomic benefits of farmer-pastoralist peace in Nigeria’s Middle Belt: An input-output analysis approach 尼日利亚中部地区农牧民和平的宏观经济效益:投入产出分析方法
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2015-04-01 DOI: 10.15355/EPSJ.10.1.66
Topher L. McDougal, Talia Hagerty, Lisa Inks, C. Dowd, S. Conroy
This article reports on the potential macroeconomic benefits of peace stemming from a reduction in farmer-pastoralist violence in four Middle Belt states of Nigeria (Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau). Farmers and pastoralists routinely clash over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for both animals and households. Farmer-pastoralist violence in these states is a relatively low-intensity form of conflict, but it is regionally widespread and chronic, and its incidence is arguably increasing. Using estimates of potential income benefits of peace at the household-level derived from a related study, we herein derive macroeconomic benefits via an input-output model of the Nigerian economy. We estimate these benefits to amount to around 2.8 percent of the nominal Nigerian GDP (or around 0.8 percent of the total Nigerian GDP, inclusive of the informal sector), representing a major macroeconomic opportunity. We break out these benefits by sector, showing that the sectors that stand to gain most from peace are the crop production, food and beverage, livestock, and chemical and petroleum industries.
本文报道了尼日利亚中部地带四个州(贝努埃、卡杜纳、纳萨拉瓦和高原)农牧民暴力减少所带来的和平的潜在宏观经济效益。农民和牧民经常在进入农田、放牧区、牲畜路线以及牲畜和家庭的供水点等问题上发生冲突。这些州的农牧民暴力是一种强度相对较低的冲突形式,但它在区域内广泛存在且长期存在,而且其发生率可以说正在增加。根据相关研究得出的家庭层面和平的潜在收入效益估计,我们在此通过尼日利亚经济的投入产出模型得出宏观经济效益。我们估计,这些收益约占尼日利亚名义GDP的2.8%(或约占尼日利亚GDP总量的0.8%,包括非正规部门),这是一个重大的宏观经济机遇。我们将这些好处按行业分类,表明从和平中获益最多的行业是作物生产、食品和饮料、畜牧业、化学和石油工业。
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引用次数: 6
Political instability and discontinuity in Nigeria: The pre-colonial past and public goods provision under colonial and post-colonial political orders 尼日利亚的政治不稳定和不连续性:殖民和后殖民政治秩序下的前殖民历史和公共产品供应
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2015-04-01 DOI: 10.15355/EPSJ.10.1.40
Kostadis J. Papaioannou, Angus Dalrymple-Smith
This article explores the relative importance of pre-colonial institutional capacity and the effects of periods of peace and stability on long-term development outcomes in Nigeria. We use data on education, health, and public works at a provincial level from a variety of colonial and Nigerian state sources to apply a decade-by-decade analysis of public goods provision in Nigeria from 1900 to 2010. Using a newly constructed measure of pre-colonial institutional capacity our results suggest that colonial-era investments were influenced by pre-colonial conditions and that the pax colonia allowed for a strong path dependency until the second world war. Contrary to other studies, which find evidence of pre-colonial centralization affecting current outcomes. In particular, we find that the post-1945 era saw a break in the pattern developed earlier in the century. Rising regionalism from the 1950s led to violent conflict and military dictatorship and caused decades of unstable and unpredictable patterns of investment which ended only with the reestablishment of democracy in the 1990s. Therefore, a key explanatory variable to understanding patterns of public goods provision seems to be the level of political stability which the Nigerian state experienced at different points during the 20th century.
本文探讨了前殖民时期机构能力的相对重要性,以及和平与稳定时期对尼日利亚长期发展成果的影响。我们使用来自各种殖民地和尼日利亚国家来源的省级教育、卫生和公共工程数据,对尼日利亚1900年至2010年的公共产品供应进行了十年一十年的分析。使用一种新构建的前殖民制度能力衡量方法,我们的研究结果表明,殖民时代的投资受到前殖民条件的影响,殖民地和平允许强烈的路径依赖,直到第二次世界大战。与其他研究相反,这些研究发现了殖民前集中化影响当前结果的证据。特别是,我们发现,1945年后,本世纪初形成的这种模式出现了突破。从1950年代起,日益高涨的地区主义导致了暴力冲突和军事独裁,并造成了数十年不稳定和不可预测的投资模式,直到1990年代重建民主制度才结束。因此,理解公共产品提供模式的一个关键解释变量似乎是尼日利亚国家在20世纪不同时期所经历的政治稳定水平。
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引用次数: 11
Sicherheitspolitik im Arktischen Rat? Lieber nicht! 北极理事会安全政策?不不什么?
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2015-01-01 DOI: 10.5771/0175-274X-2015-3-23
Christoph Humrich
Ongoing political, legal, environmental and economic changes open up the Arctic. This has implications for regional security. The article tackles the question whether the preeminent regional institution, the Arctic Council, should include security-related topics in its portfolio to deal with the emerging challenges. The article argues that the regional security issues will be taken care of better in other institutions for at least two reasons: dealing with security-related topics might negatively impact the Arctic Council’s institutional practice, while at the same time the Arctic Council might not provide the best institutional background needed to cope with the most pertinent issues on the security agenda.
正在进行的政治、法律、环境和经济变化打开了北极的大门。这对地区安全具有影响。这篇文章探讨了一个问题,即卓越的地区机构北极理事会是否应该将与安全相关的议题纳入其职权范围,以应对新出现的挑战。文章认为,区域安全问题将在其他机构得到更好的处理,原因至少有两个:处理与安全有关的议题可能会对北极理事会的机构实践产生负面影响,同时北极理事会可能无法提供处理安全议程上最相关问题所需的最佳机构背景。
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引用次数: 3
External actors’ role in solving local collective action problems in a post-conflict setting: A case study of Turkish Cypriot beekeepers 外部行为者在解决冲突后当地集体行动问题中的作用:土族塞人养蜂人的案例研究
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2014-10-01 DOI: 10.15355/EPSJ.9.2.19
Omer Gokcekus, C. Finnegan, H. Çakal
In addition to legal constraints and social-psychological barriers, in a post-conflict setting mutually beneficial economic transactions might not occur due to the widening gap between the health, quality, and environmental standards of the parties. A lack of incentives during the years of conflict prevent the members of the weaker party, the one economically isolated from the rest of the world, from engaging in the collective learning necessary to upgrade the health and packaging standards of their commodities. In this study, we detail the technical, political, and legal challenges external actors must consider in order to successfully help small businesses in a post-conflict environment. Specifically, we explain how the EU helped Turkish Cypriot beekeepers by supplying funds to support training and educational programs, and upgrade the equipment used by the beekeepers. We demonstrate that third parties, like the EU, can provide the impetus for domestic institutions—such as producers associations, chambers of commerce, and cooperatives—to overcome their collective action problem. [JEL codes: D74, H56, O1]
除了法律限制和社会心理障碍外,在冲突后的环境中,由于各方的健康、质量和环境标准之间的差距越来越大,可能不会发生互利的经济交易。冲突期间缺乏激励措施,使经济上与世界其他地区隔绝的弱势一方成员无法参与必要的集体学习,以提高其商品的卫生和包装标准。在本研究中,我们详细介绍了外部参与者必须考虑的技术、政治和法律挑战,以便在冲突后的环境中成功帮助小企业。具体来说,我们解释了欧盟如何通过提供资金支持培训和教育计划,以及升级养蜂人使用的设备来帮助土族塞人养蜂人。我们证明,像欧盟这样的第三方可以为国内机构——如生产者协会、商会和合作社——提供动力,以克服他们的集体行动问题。[JEL代码:D74, H56, 01]
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引用次数: 1
Hearts and minds cannot be bought: Ineffective reconstruction in Afghanistan 人心不可收买:阿富汗重建无效
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2014-10-01 DOI: 10.15355/EPSJ.9.2.43
T. Child
Recent work has suggested the foreign-led reconstruction effort carried out in Afghanistan and Iraq can mitigate violence because it helps win the “hearts and minds” of local people. For the case of Afghanistan, we show there is no evidence behind such an assertion. Analyzing unique data on Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP) spending across the country from 2005 to 2009, we find no discernible effect of the reconstruction effort on violence. In light of the absence of empirical evidence for the success of the CERP, we suggest the hearts and minds credo currently guiding U.S. policy be reconsidered
最近的研究表明,在阿富汗和伊拉克进行的由外国主导的重建工作可以减少暴力,因为它有助于赢得当地人民的“心灵和思想”。对于阿富汗的情况,我们表明没有证据支持这种断言。分析2005年至2009年全国指挥官应急计划(CERP)支出的独特数据,我们发现重建工作对暴力没有明显的影响。鉴于缺乏CERP成功的经验证据,我们建议重新考虑目前指导美国政策的心灵信条
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引用次数: 25
Violence and socioeconomic conditions in Cape Town 开普敦的暴力和社会经济状况
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2014-10-01 DOI: 10.15355/EPSJ.9.2.34
J. Seekings, Kai M. Thaler
There is considerable debate over the causes of violence around the world, one which goes beyond the analysis of conflict to consider the dynamics of community behavior and the importance of economic and behavioral factors. One of the most interesting countries to study is South Africa, where violence seems to have increased rather than declined since democratization. South Africa competes with Colombia, Venezuela, and a number of Central American countries for the unwelcome distinction of having among the world’s highest homicide rates, and high prevalence of other forms of violence, including domestic and sexual violence, are also appallingly prevalent. This article presents an analysis of data from a panel of young men in Cape Town. It provides little support for the hypothesis that unemployment and poverty are direct causes of violence against strangers. The impact of drinking (or taking drugs) by adults in the home or by the young men themselves, living in a bad neighborhood, and immediate poverty are associated with violence against strangers, but being unemployed is not. This suggests that few young people in South Africa in the early 2000s come from backgrounds that strongly predispose them against the use of violence. [JEL codes: D74, O55]
关于世界各地暴力的起因存在着相当大的争论,这种争论超越了对冲突的分析,考虑到社区行为的动态以及经济和行为因素的重要性。值得研究的最有趣的国家之一是南非,自民主化以来,那里的暴力事件似乎有所增加,而不是减少。南非与哥伦比亚、委内瑞拉和一些中美洲国家竞争,成为世界上杀人率最高的国家之一,其他形式的暴力,包括家庭暴力和性暴力,也非常普遍,令人震惊。这篇文章介绍了一组来自开普敦的年轻人的数据分析。失业和贫困是对陌生人施暴的直接原因这一假设几乎没有得到支持。成年人在家里或年轻人自己喝酒(或吸毒)、生活在不好的社区以及立即陷入贫困的影响都与对陌生人的暴力行为有关,但失业却与之无关。这表明,在21世纪初的南非,很少有年轻人来自强烈反对使用暴力的背景。[JEL代码:D74, O55]
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引用次数: 3
THE EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL COOPERATIVES ON LAND CONFLICTS, VIOLENCE, AND COMMUNITY TRUST: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL EVIDENCE FROM BURUNDI 农业合作社对土地冲突、暴力和社区信任的影响:来自布隆迪的家庭层面证据
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2014-10-01 DOI: 10.15355/EPSJ.9.2.5
Topher L. McDougal, L. Almquist
Facing a population growth rate of 3.2 percent and dwindling per capita land access, many rural communities in Burundi are experimenting with land cooperatives to collectivize risk, share information, reap economies of scale (if any), and build trust between association members. We use unique field data gathered by one author (Almquist) during a one-shot evaluation of a cooperative association operating in three villages in southern Burundi. We employ pseudo difference-in-differences logistic regression models to assess the effects of the cooperative on the (1) incidence of reported land conflicts between 2008 and 2011, (2) perceived community land inequality, (3) reported acceptability of land inequality, (4) violence toward acquaintances, (5) trust of colleagues, and (6) trust of neighbors. We find no evidence that cooperatives affect the incidence of land conflicts, but do find that residents of cooperative villages exhibit heightened perceptions of, and lower tolerance for, land inequalities; they are less likely to report violence toward acquaintances, but cooperative members are more likely to do so than nonmembers; and nonmember residents of active cooperative villages report less trust toward neighbors. We speculate that one weakness of cooperatives is that they may heighten the risk of violence between members and nonmembers.
面对3.2%的人口增长率和不断减少的人均土地使用权,布隆迪的许多农村社区正在试验土地合作社,以集中风险,共享信息,获得规模经济(如果有的话),并在协会成员之间建立信任。我们使用了一位作者(Almquist)在对布隆迪南部三个村庄的合作协会进行一次性评估时收集的独特实地数据。我们采用伪差中差逻辑回归模型来评估合作社对以下方面的影响:(1)2008年至2011年间报告的土地冲突发生率,(2)感知到的社区土地不平等,(3)报告的土地不平等可接受性,(4)对熟人的暴力,(5)同事的信任,(6)邻居的信任。我们没有发现合作社影响土地冲突发生率的证据,但确实发现合作社村的居民对土地不平等表现出更高的认知和更低的容忍度;他们不太可能报告对熟人的暴力行为,但合作成员比非成员更有可能这样做;活跃合作村的非成员居民对邻居的信任度较低。我们推测合作社的一个弱点是它们可能会增加成员和非成员之间发生暴力的风险。
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引用次数: 4
IDENTIFYING CORRUPTION RISKS IN THE DEFENSE AND SECURITY SECTOR: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE USING THE GOVERNMENT DEFENSE ANTI-CORRUPTION INDEX 识别国防和安全部门的腐败风险:使用政府国防反腐败指数的经验证据
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2014-10-01 DOI: 10.15355/EPSJ.9.2.27
Oliver Cover, S. Mustafa
This article contributes to the debate on conceptualizing corruption by suggesting that sector-specific typologies of corruption risks are useful heuristics that encourage understanding of corruption without attempting to define it in a way that is inherently contestable or inappropriately succinct. To develop this position, this article reflects on the difficulties in trying to define corruption in both general terms and within the context of the defense and security sector. It then details a corruption risk typology in use in the sector, explains how it was used to provide the theoretical backdrop for a global index, and then submits the typology’s five main risk areas to empirical testing using that same index’s results. The models that result show that this typology’s risk areas display sufficient internal coherence for its key risk areas to be of use not only to practitioners, but also to the sector analyst and academic attentive to conceptual concerns.
本文通过提出腐败风险的特定部门类型是有用的启发式方法,促进对腐败的理解,而不是试图以一种固有的可争议或不恰当的简洁方式定义腐败,从而有助于对腐败概念化的辩论。为了阐明这一立场,本文反思了试图在一般术语和国防和安全部门的背景下定义腐败的困难。然后详细介绍了该行业使用的腐败风险类型,解释了如何使用该类型为全球指数提供理论背景,然后使用同一指数的结果提交了该类型的五个主要风险领域的实证测试。所产生的模型表明,这种类型的风险区域显示出足够的内部一致性,其关键风险区域不仅对从业者有用,而且对部门分析师和关注概念问题的学者也有用。
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引用次数: 5
Social Capital, Sociopolitical Instability, and Economic Development: A General Equilibrium Model 社会资本、社会政治不稳定与经济发展:一个一般均衡模型
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2014-04-18 DOI: 10.15355/EPSJ.9.1.19
Javier Alcántar-Toledo, Yannis P. Venieris
This essay describes the main features of a general equilibrium model of social capital and social conflict. According to the model, agents decide to participate in a number of conflict events while, at the same time, accumulate social capital. In the process, the government interacts with the economic actors by discouraging civil disobedience and social violence. The results show that social conflict is decreasing with the accumulation of physical capital, human capital, social capital, and government expenses on social development programs. Output growth in the economy depends positively upon accumulation of all types of capitals and social development funding, and negatively upon social conflict. More importantly, social capital is found to have a considerable positive effect on growth not only directly via investment, as suggested by recent empirical literature, but also indirectly by reducing the levels of social conflict. The model shows that the growth trajectories of the economy display a history-dependent pattern of growth with multiple-equilibria where countries converge to a nontrivial stable steady-state in the long-run. We also provide evidence in favor of the club convergence hypothesis which is predicated upon the initial levels of all types of capitals and the underlying level of social conflict.
本文描述了社会资本与社会冲突的一般均衡模型的主要特征。根据该模型,代理人决定参与一系列冲突事件,同时积累社会资本。在这个过程中,政府通过劝阻公民不服从和社会暴力与经济行为者互动。结果表明,社会冲突随着物质资本、人力资本、社会资本和政府在社会发展项目上的支出的积累而减少。经济产出增长积极地依赖于各类资本和社会发展资金的积累,消极地依赖于社会冲突。更重要的是,研究发现,社会资本不仅通过投资直接对经济增长产生积极影响(如最近的实证文献所示),还通过降低社会冲突水平间接对经济增长产生积极影响。该模型表明,经济的增长轨迹显示出一种历史依赖的增长模式,具有多重均衡,其中各国在长期内收敛于一个非平凡的稳定稳定状态。我们还提供了支持俱乐部收敛假设的证据,该假设基于所有类型资本的初始水平和潜在的社会冲突水平。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Media on Domestic Violence Norms: Evidence from India 媒体对家庭暴力规范的影响:来自印度的证据
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2014-04-18 DOI: 10.15355/EPSJ.9.1.58
K. Bhushan, Prakarsh Singh
Greater access to media may influence norms about domestic violence. It may lead to greater acceptance of violence due to an increase in the incidence of violence or to lower acceptance due to a change in gender norms. Applying a difference-in-differences methodology to the National Family Health Survey, India (1998-99 and 2005-06), we find evidence that regularly accessing television and radio leads to a small but statistically significant reduction in the probability of women accepting domestic violence. The effect of regularly accessing both media is equivalent to the effect of three additional years of education on reducing acceptability of domestic violence. This suggests that increasing access to both media may lead to greater empowerment of women in India.
更多地接触媒体可能会影响有关家庭暴力的规范。它可能由于暴力事件的增加而导致对暴力的更大接受,也可能由于性别规范的改变而导致对暴力的接受程度降低。对印度全国家庭健康调查(1998-99年和2005-06年)采用差异中之差异方法,我们发现有证据表明,定期收看电视和广播会导致妇女接受家庭暴力的可能性小幅下降,但在统计上具有显著意义。定期使用这两种媒体的效果相当于额外三年教育对减少对家庭暴力的可接受性的效果。这表明,增加对这两种媒体的使用可能会使印度妇女获得更大的权力。
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引用次数: 14
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Economics of Peace and Security Journal
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