Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-12
A. Auzan, A. Bakhtigaraeva, V. Bryzgalin
In this article we examine boundaries of the creative economy, its prospects in the context of global challenges, barriers, resources, and potential for its development in Russia. We show that the creative economy is a complex phenomenon and can be estimated with the combined use of sectoral and inter-sectoral indicators. The creative economy may be a response to digitalization and the threat of replacing human intelligence, climate change and glocalization. It may become a significant factor of economic development. Results of a study carried out by the Institute of National Projects and the MSU Faculty of Economics on behalf of the Creative Industries Federation show that realizing the potential of the creative economy in Russia is hampered by institutional and sociocultural barriers – they underlie most of the difficulties faced by representatives of creative industries. Joint actions of the state and the creative community is the only way to overcome both types of barriers and to develop the creative economy. These efforts may have significant economic returns due to Russia’s competitive advantage in highly educated population over most other countries. Thus, the model of economic development of Russia through a creative economy and human capital may be more successful than previous attempts of innovative development in Russia.
{"title":"Development of Russia’s creative economy in the context of modern challenges","authors":"A. Auzan, A. Bakhtigaraeva, V. Bryzgalin","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-12","url":null,"abstract":"In this article we examine boundaries of the creative economy, its prospects in the context of global challenges, barriers, resources, and potential for its development in Russia. We show that the creative economy is a complex phenomenon and can be estimated with the combined use of sectoral and inter-sectoral indicators. The creative economy may be a response to digitalization and the threat of replacing human intelligence, climate change and glocalization. It may become a significant factor of economic development. Results of a study carried out by the Institute of National Projects and the MSU Faculty of Economics on behalf of the Creative Industries Federation show that realizing the potential of the creative economy in Russia is hampered by institutional and sociocultural barriers – they underlie most of the difficulties faced by representatives of creative industries. Joint actions of the state and the creative community is the only way to overcome both types of barriers and to develop the creative economy. These efforts may have significant economic returns due to Russia’s competitive advantage in highly educated population over most other countries. Thus, the model of economic development of Russia through a creative economy and human capital may be more successful than previous attempts of innovative development in Russia.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69822518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-4
S.G. Churbanov, I. Rozmainsky
The paper tests the hypothesis of permanent income on modern (2007– 2019) data of aggregated income indicators and expenditure of the Russian households. To test the hypothesis, we use John Shea’s methodology. According to his approach, the values of the predicted indicators of the current change in income and interest rates are determined using several sets of variables. The empirical analysis carried out by these authors shows that the behavior of households in Russia does not follow Milton Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis, but is consistent with Christopher Carroll’s “buffer stock” model. Fluctuations in income have a statistically significant effect on fluctuations in consumption. This means that Russian consumers are not inclined to smooth future consumption over the entire life cycle, but tend to maintain a certain level of savings for several periods in advance as a safety net in the event of a fall in permanent income. This conclusion is logical for the post-Soviet Russian space. As the studies show, in developing countries and with less developed financial institutions and markets, individuals have difficulties in planning their behavior. They face a narrow planning horizon with a high degree of uncertainty about the future.
{"title":"Empirical analysis of the permanent income hypothesis based on the Post-Soviet Russian data","authors":"S.G. Churbanov, I. Rozmainsky","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-4","url":null,"abstract":"The paper tests the hypothesis of permanent income on modern (2007– 2019) data of aggregated income indicators and expenditure of the Russian households. To test the hypothesis, we use John Shea’s methodology. According to his approach, the values of the predicted indicators of the current change in income and interest rates are determined using several sets of variables. The empirical analysis carried out by these authors shows that the behavior of households in Russia does not follow Milton Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis, but is consistent with Christopher Carroll’s “buffer stock” model. Fluctuations in income have a statistically significant effect on fluctuations in consumption. This means that Russian consumers are not inclined to smooth future consumption over the entire life cycle, but tend to maintain a certain level of savings for several periods in advance as a safety net in the event of a fall in permanent income. This conclusion is logical for the post-Soviet Russian space. As the studies show, in developing countries and with less developed financial institutions and markets, individuals have difficulties in planning their behavior. They face a narrow planning horizon with a high degree of uncertainty about the future.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69822962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-15
E. Gontmakher, A. Davydova
The success of Russia’s ecological modernization and decarbonization of the Russian economy can be ensured only by the joint efforts of all public institutions and, above all, the state, business and civil society. At the same time, it is diffi cult to assess the criticality of contribution of each institution. The only certain thing is: if at least one of the above-mentioned institutions is not involved in this activity, the probability of Russia’s environmental modernization success becomes extremely low. As world experience shows, public consensus on the goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and specifi c measures to achieve these goals is extremely important. For Russia, which economy is built basically on the extraction, production and export of carbonintensive products, the transformation of the socio-economic model will have serious social consequences, therefore, building a dialogue with society, taking into account the real opinion of the citizens and developing measures to support the population for a fair transition to a low-carbon development model are of crucial importance.
{"title":"Ecological modernization of Russia: Public request","authors":"E. Gontmakher, A. Davydova","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-15","url":null,"abstract":"The success of Russia’s ecological modernization and decarbonization of the Russian economy can be ensured only by the joint efforts of all public institutions and, above all, the state, business and civil society. At the same time, it is diffi cult to assess the criticality of contribution of each institution. The only certain thing is: if at least one of the above-mentioned institutions is not involved in this activity, the probability of Russia’s environmental modernization success becomes extremely low. As world experience shows, public consensus on the goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and specifi c measures to achieve these goals is extremely important. For Russia, which economy is built basically on the extraction, production and export of carbonintensive products, the transformation of the socio-economic model will have serious social consequences, therefore, building a dialogue with society, taking into account the real opinion of the citizens and developing measures to support the population for a fair transition to a low-carbon development model are of crucial importance.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69824104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-6
Н. А. Розинская, В МГУим.М., Москва Т. А Ломоносова, Дробышевская Мгу, В им.М., Москва Т. А Ломоносова, Т.А. Дробышевская, N. Rozinskaya, T. Drobyshevskaya
The article is about intergenerational mobility — one of the most important factors determining both the level of actual inequality in a society and the willingness of such society to tolerate this level. First part of the article provides a review of modern literature on quantitative estimates of intergenerational mobility. The main indicators and discussion issues related to the accuracy of assessing intergenerational mobility are considered, as well as methods for assessing the reasons for the dependence of heirs’ income on parental income. Second part provides an overview of the main approaches used in applied research in this area. Among them are the comparison of intergenerational mobility across countries and its relationship with social inequality, changes in intergenerational mobility over time, and the relationship between intergenerational mobility and economic growth. Particular attention is paid to the results of applied research based on Russian data. The original character of the work is in the fact that, giving an overview of research in the field of intergenerational mobility, the authors address not only the issue of what certain researchers claimed, but also what methods are used in the literature on intergenerational mobility to support the conclusions.
{"title":"Quantitative estimates of intergenerational mobility","authors":"Н. А. Розинская, В МГУим.М., Москва Т. А Ломоносова, Дробышевская Мгу, В им.М., Москва Т. А Ломоносова, Т.А. Дробышевская, N. Rozinskaya, T. Drobyshevskaya","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-6","url":null,"abstract":"The article is about intergenerational mobility — one of the most important factors determining both the level of actual inequality in a society and the willingness of such society to tolerate this level. First part of the article provides a review of modern literature on quantitative estimates of intergenerational mobility. The main indicators and discussion issues related to the accuracy of assessing intergenerational mobility are considered, as well as methods for assessing the reasons for the dependence of heirs’ income on parental income. Second part provides an overview of the main approaches used in applied research in this area. Among them are the comparison of intergenerational mobility across countries and its relationship with social inequality, changes in intergenerational mobility over time, and the relationship between intergenerational mobility and economic growth. Particular attention is paid to the results of applied research based on Russian data. The original character of the work is in the fact that, giving an overview of research in the field of intergenerational mobility, the authors address not only the issue of what certain researchers claimed, but also what methods are used in the literature on intergenerational mobility to support the conclusions.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69825057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-3
T. Teplova, T. Sokolova, A. Tomtosov, D. V. Buchko, D. Nikulin
In our paper, for the first time, we examine the influence of the sentiment of private investors in social networks on the trade characteristics of stocks in the Russian market. Monthly return rates and trading volumes are analyzed under the control of financial indicators and indicators of the quality of corporate governance of stock issuers, as well as the changing external environment in the period from 2013 to 2020. The sample for various sentiment metrics is based on unique data: messages in the Telegram and mfd.ru platforms. The tonality of messages is diagnosed according to the authors’ method using artificial intelligence (neural network). The main conclusion is: the sentiment can be seen as an explanatory factor in pricing and trading activity. The influence of sentiment is non-linear. The author’s HYPE indicator of sentiment is proposed and compared in terms of explanatory ability of the trade characteristics with a wide range of proxy variables. The explanatory ability to identify differences is realized through regression constructions on panel data. It is shown that trade characteristics are more sensitive to the growth of negative messages, which is consistent with the postulates of behavioral finance. An increase in messages’ number of both positive and negative sentiment contributes to the growth of trading activity. An important practical conclusion is: following the crowd when the company is most intensely discussed will not result in high returns to an investor.
{"title":"The sentiment of private investors in explaining the differences in the trade characteristics of the Russian market stocks","authors":"T. Teplova, T. Sokolova, A. Tomtosov, D. V. Buchko, D. Nikulin","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-3","url":null,"abstract":"In our paper, for the first time, we examine the influence of the sentiment of private investors in social networks on the trade characteristics of stocks in the Russian market. Monthly return rates and trading volumes are analyzed under the control of financial indicators and indicators of the quality of corporate governance of stock issuers, as well as the changing external environment in the period from 2013 to 2020. The sample for various sentiment metrics is based on unique data: messages in the Telegram and mfd.ru platforms. The tonality of messages is diagnosed according to the authors’ method using artificial intelligence (neural network). The main conclusion is: the sentiment can be seen as an explanatory factor in pricing and trading activity. The influence of sentiment is non-linear. The author’s HYPE indicator of sentiment is proposed and compared in terms of explanatory ability of the trade characteristics with a wide range of proxy variables. The explanatory ability to identify differences is realized through regression constructions on panel data. It is shown that trade characteristics are more sensitive to the growth of negative messages, which is consistent with the postulates of behavioral finance. An increase in messages’ number of both positive and negative sentiment contributes to the growth of trading activity. An important practical conclusion is: following the crowd when the company is most intensely discussed will not result in high returns to an investor.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69821758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-1
D. Musatov, A. Savvateev
The human society consists of many large and small groups. Why do these groups emerge? How does their structure form? What does their dynamics look like? Is there always a stable configuration that does not change anymore? In the models described in this survey it is assumed that agents live in some geographical or virtual space and groups are formed to produce some club good located in the same space and available only inside a group. There are two opposite forces that influence the size of the groups. On the one hand, in larger groups the agents enjoy economy of scale, so the good costs less. On the other hand, in smaller and homogeneous groups the good may be located close to all members. Do these forces always balance each other in some stable configuration and what does this configuration look like? The answer depends on the model details and on the notion of equilibrium. In this survey we present different frameworks and main known results about (non-)existence of equilibria and their properties, as well as some new directions of research.
{"title":"Mathematical models of stable jurisdiction partitions: A survey of results and new directions","authors":"D. Musatov, A. Savvateev","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-1","url":null,"abstract":"The human society consists of many large and small groups. Why do these groups emerge? How does their structure form? What does their dynamics look like? Is there always a stable configuration that does not change anymore? In the models described in this survey it is assumed that agents live in some geographical or virtual space and groups are formed to produce some club good located in the same space and available only inside a group. There are two opposite forces that influence the size of the groups. On the one hand, in larger groups the agents enjoy economy of scale, so the good costs less. On the other hand, in smaller and homogeneous groups the good may be located close to all members. Do these forces always balance each other in some stable configuration and what does this configuration look like? The answer depends on the model details and on the notion of equilibrium. In this survey we present different frameworks and main known results about (non-)existence of equilibria and their properties, as well as some new directions of research.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69822122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-8
V.K. Kopytok
The unemployment insurance (UI) system is one of the key labor market institutes. UI benefits allow to smooth consumption during unemployment. Moreover, people receiving UI benefits can search for a new position more selectively, and thus find a job that with more appropriate qualification requirements and salary. Nevertheless, generous UI benefits lead to a decrease in the intensity of job search and an increase in the duration of registered unemployment. The optimal UI system design balances these effects. This paper is based on administrative microdata on registered unemployment in Russia in 2019 (collected by The Federal Service for Labor and Employment of Russia) to estimate the causal effect of UI benefits on the duration of registered unemployment. Regression kink design and the maximum UI benefits levels are exploited to identify the causal effect. Estimated elasticities of UI duration with respect to average daily benefits are positive and significant with values from 0.2 to 5.3 due to specification which corresponds to the estimates obtained for other countries.
{"title":"Unemployment benefits and duration of registered unemployment in Russia: Regression kink design","authors":"V.K. Kopytok","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-8","url":null,"abstract":"The unemployment insurance (UI) system is one of the key labor market institutes. UI benefits allow to smooth consumption during unemployment. Moreover, people receiving UI benefits can search for a new position more selectively, and thus find a job that with more appropriate qualification requirements and salary. Nevertheless, generous UI benefits lead to a decrease in the intensity of job search and an increase in the duration of registered unemployment. The optimal UI system design balances these effects. This paper is based on administrative microdata on registered unemployment in Russia in 2019 (collected by The Federal Service for Labor and Employment of Russia) to estimate the causal effect of UI benefits on the duration of registered unemployment. Regression kink design and the maximum UI benefits levels are exploited to identify the causal effect. Estimated elasticities of UI duration with respect to average daily benefits are positive and significant with values from 0.2 to 5.3 due to specification which corresponds to the estimates obtained for other countries.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69823121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-4
S. Kiselev, R. Romashkin, A. Belugin
Based on the applied economic and mathematical partial equilibrium model, the article estimates the volume of Russian exports of basic agri-food products until 2030. The results of simulation indicate a more dynamic increase in exports compared to the agricultural output. At the same time, grain and sunfl ower oil will remain the main products of Russian agrifood exports. Among the agri-food products presented in the study, sugar and milk exports will decline. The reduction in sugar exports is mainly due to a decrease in sugar production, while milk exports are infl uenced by growing domestic demand. In general, the supply of domestic products to Russian consumers is relatively stable, and the share of exports in agri-food products under certain conditions may increase from 19.6% in 2019 to 24.6% in 2030. Agri-food output is growing under the infl uence of technological progress, increasing consumer expenditures and export-stimulating measures by 5.6–6.5% compared to 2019, while measures to restrict the exports of grain and sunfl ower oil limit the growth of agri-food output to 0.6–0.8%.In this regard, the development of Russia’s agri-food sector is largely determined by the dynamics of real incomes of the population and the need to gradually abandon the application of export restriction measures.
{"title":"Russia’s agri-food exports until 2030: Projection from a partial equilibrium model","authors":"S. Kiselev, R. Romashkin, A. Belugin","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-4","url":null,"abstract":"Based on the applied economic and mathematical partial equilibrium model, the article estimates the volume of Russian exports of basic agri-food products until 2030. The results of simulation indicate a more dynamic increase in exports compared to the agricultural output. At the same time, grain and sunfl ower oil will remain the main products of Russian agrifood exports. Among the agri-food products presented in the study, sugar and milk exports will decline. The reduction in sugar exports is mainly due to a decrease in sugar production, while milk exports are infl uenced by growing domestic demand. In general, the supply of domestic products to Russian consumers is relatively stable, and the share of exports in agri-food products under certain conditions may increase from 19.6% in 2019 to 24.6% in 2030. Agri-food output is growing under the infl uence of technological progress, increasing consumer expenditures and export-stimulating measures by 5.6–6.5% compared to 2019, while measures to restrict the exports of grain and sunfl ower oil limit the growth of agri-food output to 0.6–0.8%.In this regard, the development of Russia’s agri-food sector is largely determined by the dynamics of real incomes of the population and the need to gradually abandon the application of export restriction measures.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69824240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-2
Yury Zelenkov, I. Solntsev
This article aims to build a general valuation model that can be applied by investors and current shareholders of professional sport clubs from different countries and leagues. The study is based on panel data on the valuation of soccer clubs published annually by Forbes. Authors analyze all value-drivers that were used previously, expanding the time horizon (number of observations) and incorporating various models including linear and non-linear mixed effect regressions. The best performance is obtained using a mixed-effect model with treebased fi xed part. The following determinants were found signifi cant for the fi xed effect: revenue and number of Google search requests. Analysis of actual deals in 2015–2020 confi rms the model’s predictive ability. It is also shown that since Forbes overestimates the market value of soccer clubs, the proposed model predicts an upper bound on the real value. In this regard, transactions with real value exceeding the estimates are of particular interest. A deeper analysis of such transactions allows to identify additional “non-soccer” factors affecting the deal. Therefore, the proposed model can serve as a tool for the rapid assessment of a soccer club based on open data.
{"title":"Predicting the value of professional sport clubs. A study of European soccer, 2005–2018","authors":"Yury Zelenkov, I. Solntsev","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-2","url":null,"abstract":"This article aims to build a general valuation model that can be applied by investors and current shareholders of professional sport clubs from different countries and leagues. The study is based on panel data on the valuation of soccer clubs published annually by Forbes. Authors analyze all value-drivers that were used previously, expanding the time horizon (number of observations) and incorporating various models including linear and non-linear mixed effect regressions. The best performance is obtained using a mixed-effect model with treebased fi xed part. The following determinants were found signifi cant for the fi xed effect: revenue and number of Google search requests. Analysis of actual deals in 2015–2020 confi rms the model’s predictive ability. It is also shown that since Forbes overestimates the market value of soccer clubs, the proposed model predicts an upper bound on the real value. In this regard, transactions with real value exceeding the estimates are of particular interest. A deeper analysis of such transactions allows to identify additional “non-soccer” factors affecting the deal. Therefore, the proposed model can serve as a tool for the rapid assessment of a soccer club based on open data.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69824473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-14
T. Lanshina, V. Slivyak, S. V. Strelkova
This study presents two scenarios for the development of the Russian electric power industry for the period up to 2035 — the baseline and the energy transition scenario. The baseline scenario assumes that in the next 15 years the country will implement the policy envisaged by the key energy strategic documents. In the baseline scenario, the share of wind and solar generation will increase slightly — from 0.3% in 2020 to 2.2% in 2035, which will be signifi cantly lower than in the vast majority of the world major economies. The energy transition scenario assumes the abandonment of the construction of new thermal power plants and nuclear power plants and the gradual decommissioning of thermal and nuclear power plants as their service life expires, with replacement by wind and solar power plants. Hydroelectric power plants, nuclear power plants, gas thermal power plants and biomass thermal power plants will collectively account for about 28% of permanent generation by 2035, which will ensure the stability of the energy system. The remaining share of generation will be provided by variable sources — wind and sun in a ratio of 2:1. The energy transition scenario provides for the abandonment of coal generation by 2030, from nuclear generation by 2060.
{"title":"Russian electric power industry until 2035: On the way to full transition to renewable energy sources","authors":"T. Lanshina, V. Slivyak, S. V. Strelkova","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-14","url":null,"abstract":"This study presents two scenarios for the development of the Russian electric power industry for the period up to 2035 — the baseline and the energy transition scenario. The baseline scenario assumes that in the next 15 years the country will implement the policy envisaged by the key energy strategic documents. In the baseline scenario, the share of wind and solar generation will increase slightly — from 0.3% in 2020 to 2.2% in 2035, which will be signifi cantly lower than in the vast majority of the world major economies. The energy transition scenario assumes the abandonment of the construction of new thermal power plants and nuclear power plants and the gradual decommissioning of thermal and nuclear power plants as their service life expires, with replacement by wind and solar power plants. Hydroelectric power plants, nuclear power plants, gas thermal power plants and biomass thermal power plants will collectively account for about 28% of permanent generation by 2035, which will ensure the stability of the energy system. The remaining share of generation will be provided by variable sources — wind and sun in a ratio of 2:1. The energy transition scenario provides for the abandonment of coal generation by 2030, from nuclear generation by 2060.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69824506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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