Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-12
O. Buklemishev
The dynamics of financial sanctions over the past decades is considered. The outstripping growth of the role of financial and other "smart" sanctions is explained by their painfulness for target states, organizations and citizens, the asymmetry of the impact and the possibility of minimizing damage to third parties. It is shown that although the heyday of financial sanctions coincides with the period of the rollback of globalization, in many respects they are generated precisely by the process of globalization and the growth of network interactions. The assumption of the mutually reinforcing influence of deglobalization and sanctions is considered in view of the fact that the network effects of international financial institutions increase over time. Nevertheless, as a result of financial sanctions, the active processes of replacing traditional international payment and settlement mechanisms with alternative ones and the US dollar — with other reserve currencies (primarily the Chinese yuan) have not yet started. Historical experience confirms the conclusion that despite the negative effects of financial sanctions, in the modern world they may not contradict to the continuation of globalization.
{"title":"Financial sanctions and future of globalization","authors":"O. Buklemishev","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-12","url":null,"abstract":"The dynamics of financial sanctions over the past decades is considered. The outstripping growth of the role of financial and other \"smart\" sanctions is explained by their painfulness for target states, organizations and citizens, the asymmetry of the impact and the possibility of minimizing damage to third parties. It is shown that although the heyday of financial sanctions coincides with the period of the rollback of globalization, in many respects they are generated precisely by the process of globalization and the growth of network interactions. The assumption of the mutually reinforcing influence of deglobalization and sanctions is considered in view of the fact that the network effects of international financial institutions increase over time. Nevertheless, as a result of financial sanctions, the active processes of replacing traditional international payment and settlement mechanisms with alternative ones and the US dollar — with other reserve currencies (primarily the Chinese yuan) have not yet started. Historical experience confirms the conclusion that despite the negative effects of financial sanctions, in the modern world they may not contradict to the continuation of globalization.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69823422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-4
D. A. Orlov, E. Postnikov
Price stability is one of the strategic goals of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia. A significant factor of inflationary pressure on the economy is short-term deviations of the unemployment rate from NAIRU. At the same time, the relationship between the labor market and inflationary processes at the regional level may differ significantly. This paper examines regional heterogeneity in the Russian labor market in the form of a Phillips curve. An important feature for choosing the main research method is the lack of statistical information about NAIRU. Based on the models of unobservable components using the Kalman filter, the influence of the unemployment gap on inflation in each region of the Russian Federation is estimated. The constructed models take into account the impact on inflation of the main premises of the theory of rational expectations, supply shocks and inflation lags. Conclusions were drawn that there is a significant relationship between the unemployment gap and inflation for most of the Russian regions, while the sensitivity of inflation to changes in the labor market in the country as a whole is rather weak. Regions with proinflationary and disinflationary influence from the labor market were identified.
{"title":"Phillips curve: Infl ation and NAIRU in the Russian regions","authors":"D. A. Orlov, E. Postnikov","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-4","url":null,"abstract":"Price stability is one of the strategic goals of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia. A significant factor of inflationary pressure on the economy is short-term deviations of the unemployment rate from NAIRU. At the same time, the relationship between the labor market and inflationary processes at the regional level may differ significantly. This paper examines regional heterogeneity in the Russian labor market in the form of a Phillips curve. An important feature for choosing the main research method is the lack of statistical information about NAIRU. Based on the models of unobservable components using the Kalman filter, the influence of the unemployment gap on inflation in each region of the Russian Federation is estimated. The constructed models take into account the impact on inflation of the main premises of the theory of rational expectations, supply shocks and inflation lags. Conclusions were drawn that there is a significant relationship between the unemployment gap and inflation for most of the Russian regions, while the sensitivity of inflation to changes in the labor market in the country as a whole is rather weak. Regions with proinflationary and disinflationary influence from the labor market were identified.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69823586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-11
A. Shirov
The article discusses the main factors infl uencing the formation of the of low carbon development strategy of Russia in a changing macroeconomic environment. The motives of the implementation of the climate agenda by various countries of the world are considered. A position is being formed that refl ects Russia’s interests in the implementation of climate policy. It is noted that the key factor in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is technology change. In turn, the main limitation in this case is the capital intensity of the introduction of individual technologies. A key feature of the Russian economy is the need for structural shifts to ensure the sustainability of development in the medium term. In this regard, when implementing climate policy, modernization measures can be introduced to reduce GHG emissions. At the same time, investments in fi xed assets will be the key factor in reducing emissions. It is shown that in the conditions of deterioration of foreign economic relations with developed countries and related technological constraints, both negative effects for the decarbonizartion strategy, as well as some positive shifts occur, determined by possible structural shifts in the Russian economy.
{"title":"Low-carbon development of Russia under the foreign economic restrictions","authors":"A. Shirov","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-11","url":null,"abstract":"The article discusses the main factors infl uencing the formation of the of low carbon development strategy of Russia in a changing macroeconomic environment. The motives of the implementation of the climate agenda by various countries of the world are considered. A position is being formed that refl ects Russia’s interests in the implementation of climate policy. It is noted that the key factor in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is technology change. In turn, the main limitation in this case is the capital intensity of the introduction of individual technologies. A key feature of the Russian economy is the need for structural shifts to ensure the sustainability of development in the medium term. In this regard, when implementing climate policy, modernization measures can be introduced to reduce GHG emissions. At the same time, investments in fi xed assets will be the key factor in reducing emissions. It is shown that in the conditions of deterioration of foreign economic relations with developed countries and related technological constraints, both negative effects for the decarbonizartion strategy, as well as some positive shifts occur, determined by possible structural shifts in the Russian economy.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69823977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-3
A. Zubarev, K. Rybak
In this study, we estimate the contribution of global demand, supply and commodity shocks to the dynamics of Russian macroeconomic variables. The main tool used in this work is a factor augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) that allows extracting global factors from a wide range of variables. Recursive and sign restrictions are used to identify global shocks. Russian economy is represented by a large set of informational series aggregated into a small number of factors. FAVAR approach allows for extended inference on the reaction of Russian macroeconomic variables to global shocks. Impulse response function analysis shows that Russian economy is affected by all three specifi ed global shocks and forecast error decompositions indicate that those shocks account for nearly 80 per cent of key variables dynamics. We also showed that global demand and global commodity shocks were more crucial compared to the third type of shocks in explaining macroeconomic dynamics.
{"title":"The impact of global shocks on the Russian economy: FAVAR approach","authors":"A. Zubarev, K. Rybak","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-3","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we estimate the contribution of global demand, supply and commodity shocks to the dynamics of Russian macroeconomic variables. The main tool used in this work is a factor augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) that allows extracting global factors from a wide range of variables. Recursive and sign restrictions are used to identify global shocks. Russian economy is represented by a large set of informational series aggregated into a small number of factors. FAVAR approach allows for extended inference on the reaction of Russian macroeconomic variables to global shocks. Impulse response function analysis shows that Russian economy is affected by all three specifi ed global shocks and forecast error decompositions indicate that those shocks account for nearly 80 per cent of key variables dynamics. We also showed that global demand and global commodity shocks were more crucial compared to the third type of shocks in explaining macroeconomic dynamics.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69824107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-2
Д. С. Карабекян, Журнал Нэа, Д. С. Карабекян, Ниу Вшэ, Москва
Some distortions are possible in the process of preference aggregation. For example, one voter who is pivotal for some preference profile may not read instructions properly and accidently submit wrong preference. We study how different voting rules react to these distortions for three, four and five alternatives with computer modelling. One of the results is: contrary to the results for the degree of manipulability estimations the most stable rule is the rule that requires less information from preferences when calculating final results — threshold rule. With more alternatives the difference between this rule and rules that require information about the whole ranking is more visible. So, for the rules that require less information the probability to influence the results goes down when the number of alternatives increases. Another result: the resoluteness (weighted average number of alternatives in the final outcome) is positively correlated with the stability of aggregation procedures. Threshold rule is the best one for the most cases when we consider both stability and resoluteness.
{"title":"On the stability of results for aggregation procedures","authors":"Д. С. Карабекян, Журнал Нэа, Д. С. Карабекян, Ниу Вшэ, Москва","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-2","url":null,"abstract":"Some distortions are possible in the process of preference aggregation. For example, one voter who is pivotal for some preference profile may not read instructions properly and accidently submit wrong preference. We study how different voting rules react to these distortions for three, four and five alternatives with computer modelling. One of the results is: contrary to the results for the degree of manipulability estimations the most stable rule is the rule that requires less information from preferences when calculating final results — threshold rule. With more alternatives the difference between this rule and rules that require information about the whole ranking is more visible. So, for the rules that require less information the probability to influence the results goes down when the number of alternatives increases. Another result: the resoluteness (weighted average number of alternatives in the final outcome) is positively correlated with the stability of aggregation procedures. Threshold rule is the best one for the most cases when we consider both stability and resoluteness.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69824682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-4
М. А. Карцева, РАНХиГС, Москва, П. О. Кузнецова, М. А. Карцева, П. О. Кузнецова, Журнал Нэа
In this article, we analyze the impact of health on wages in Russia in 2012–2019, using the data from the RLMS-HSE survey. As a measure of health impact we consider hour wages. Health is estimated by means of self-assessed health data. We use a Minсer-type wage equation. To take into account self-selection, we use the Heckman procedure to deal with the unobservable heterogeneity; we employ the panel structure of the RLMS-HSE data. The impact of health on hour wages in Russia is significant, but not great: good and very good health corresponds to an increase in earnings of 2–5% compared to average health for men and 1–3% for women. Bad health significantly reduces wages, but when self-selection is taken into account, its effect becomes insignificant. The impact of health on wages is markedly increased for groups with a low level of education, which, in our opinion, may indicate a greater importance of health for unskilled and physical labor. The robustness of our results was tested using an alternative data source.
{"title":"Stay healthy – will the rest follow? The impact of health on wages in Russia","authors":"М. А. Карцева, РАНХиГС, Москва, П. О. Кузнецова, М. А. Карцева, П. О. Кузнецова, Журнал Нэа","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-4","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we analyze the impact of health on wages in Russia in 2012–2019, using the data from the RLMS-HSE survey. As a measure of health impact we consider hour wages. Health is estimated by means of self-assessed health data. We use a Minсer-type wage equation. To take into account self-selection, we use the Heckman procedure to deal with the unobservable heterogeneity; we employ the panel structure of the RLMS-HSE data. The impact of health on hour wages in Russia is significant, but not great: good and very good health corresponds to an increase in earnings of 2–5% compared to average health for men and 1–3% for women. Bad health significantly reduces wages, but when self-selection is taken into account, its effect becomes insignificant. The impact of health on wages is markedly increased for groups with a low level of education, which, in our opinion, may indicate a greater importance of health for unskilled and physical labor. The robustness of our results was tested using an alternative data source.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69824908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-9
Горячая тема, Журнал Нэа, А. Е. Городецкий
The society consists of many different groups of people interacting with each other, civil society and the state, the paternalistic form of which is not a phenomenon of recent centuries. Although the term emerged much later, the phenomenon itself emerged in early history, essentially simultaneously with the formation of families with their patriarchal paternalism. The transfer of the household form of paternalism to the state laid the foundation for the future paternalistic state. At the same time, modern state paternalism differs, as a rule, from the patriarchal model, firstly, by the collective nature of the generation of state interests — the public choice and, secondly, by the democratisation of the very process of formation of these interests. The theoretical and historical analysis provides basis for examining the process of evolution of the paternalistic state with its inherent risks of distorting public choice. The article identifies six stages in the evolution of the state and formulates the fundamental reasons for the failure of society, the state which allows the choice of goals of the paternalistic state that do not correspond to the interests of society, and erroneous strategies for their realisation. The analysis suggests that, having failed to create a mature civil society, for most of the thirty years after socialism the country has lived in conditions of sliding down to the fourth phase of paternalistic state evolution, to its decline and uncertainty of the future.
{"title":"A paternalistic state and civil society","authors":"Горячая тема, Журнал Нэа, А. Е. Городецкий","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-9","url":null,"abstract":"The society consists of many different groups of people interacting with each other, civil society and the state, the paternalistic form of which is not a phenomenon of recent centuries. Although the term emerged much later, the phenomenon itself emerged in early history, essentially simultaneously with the formation of families with their patriarchal paternalism. The transfer of the household form of paternalism to the state laid the foundation for the future paternalistic state. At the same time, modern state paternalism differs, as a rule, from the patriarchal model, firstly, by the collective nature of the generation of state interests — the public choice and, secondly, by the democratisation of the very process of formation of these interests. The theoretical and historical analysis provides basis for examining the process of evolution of the paternalistic state with its inherent risks of distorting public choice. The article identifies six stages in the evolution of the state and formulates the fundamental reasons for the failure of society, the state which allows the choice of goals of the paternalistic state that do not correspond to the interests of society, and erroneous strategies for their realisation. The analysis suggests that, having failed to create a mature civil society, for most of the thirty years after socialism the country has lived in conditions of sliding down to the fourth phase of paternalistic state evolution, to its decline and uncertainty of the future.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69825273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-2
E. Fedorova, I. V. Pyltsin, Y. Kovalchuk, P. Drogovoz
The main purpose of this work is to determine the periods in which the profitability of the Russian stock market is partially explained by official information (RBC news) and unofficial (tweets of companies). The methodology of the study included a VAR model with a sliding window of 50 days. The empirical base of the study included 32 thousand news articles and 111 thousand tweets for 2011–2020. The assessment of the tonality of the text was carried out on the basis of the EcSentiThemeLex dictionary, this dictionary is one of the first dictionaries that allow assessing the tonality of economic and financial texts in Russian by five tonalities. The results of the study show that the profitability of the market is explained both by economic indicators (the price of oil and the exchange rate) and by the tone of textual information. Moreover, from 2011 to 2015, the tone of the news background was the dominant information factor in the profitability of the securities market, and in 2017–2020 — dominance has shifted to the mood of social media texts. A short-term period of influence of textual information was also revealed, sudden bursts of investor sentiment lead to a temporary jump in stock prices, which quickly return to close the initial level.
{"title":"News and social networks of Russian companies: Degree of influence on the securities market","authors":"E. Fedorova, I. V. Pyltsin, Y. Kovalchuk, P. Drogovoz","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-2","url":null,"abstract":"The main purpose of this work is to determine the periods in which the profitability of the Russian stock market is partially explained by official information (RBC news) and unofficial (tweets of companies). The methodology of the study included a VAR model with a sliding window of 50 days. The empirical base of the study included 32 thousand news articles and 111 thousand tweets for 2011–2020. The assessment of the tonality of the text was carried out on the basis of the EcSentiThemeLex dictionary, this dictionary is one of the first dictionaries that allow assessing the tonality of economic and financial texts in Russian by five tonalities. The results of the study show that the profitability of the market is explained both by economic indicators (the price of oil and the exchange rate) and by the tone of textual information. Moreover, from 2011 to 2015, the tone of the news background was the dominant information factor in the profitability of the securities market, and in 2017–2020 — dominance has shifted to the mood of social media texts. A short-term period of influence of textual information was also revealed, sudden bursts of investor sentiment lead to a temporary jump in stock prices, which quickly return to close the initial level.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69821692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-13
T. Abankina
The article substantiates that creative industries are one of the factors of sustainable development and contribute to the transition to an innovative economy. The concepts of creative industries, economic characteristics of the Russian creative sector, trends in Russian exports of creative goods and services are analyzed. Measures to support the creative sector in Russia are systematized. The article summarizes the new trends that developed during the pandemic, which pose threats and lead to imbalances in the development of the creative sector – that is the increasing role of large companies for stream delivery of digital content; the capture of markets for creative goods and services by the largest IT companies and banks forming digital ecosystems. A new trend is the stratification of the creative industries sector depending on industry affiliation and involvement in digital services; increased diversification and monopolization in the main links of value chains – distribution and monetization of creative goods and services. Intensive and uneven changes happened in the nature of work and its creative intensity in different professional groups under the conditions of digitalization, which leads to a significant change in labor relations, especially with a new category of self-employed citizens; strengthening of territorial imbalances in the development of the creative economy. The current management tasks for the development of creative industries in Russia are proposed and justified.
{"title":"Creative economy in Russia: New trends","authors":"T. Abankina","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-13","url":null,"abstract":"The article substantiates that creative industries are one of the factors of sustainable development and contribute to the transition to an innovative economy. The concepts of creative industries, economic characteristics of the Russian creative sector, trends in Russian exports of creative goods and services are analyzed. Measures to support the creative sector in Russia are systematized. The article summarizes the new trends that developed during the pandemic, which pose threats and lead to imbalances in the development of the creative sector – that is the increasing role of large companies for stream delivery of digital content; the capture of markets for creative goods and services by the largest IT companies and banks forming digital ecosystems. A new trend is the stratification of the creative industries sector depending on industry affiliation and involvement in digital services; increased diversification and monopolization in the main links of value chains – distribution and monetization of creative goods and services. Intensive and uneven changes happened in the nature of work and its creative intensity in different professional groups under the conditions of digitalization, which leads to a significant change in labor relations, especially with a new category of self-employed citizens; strengthening of territorial imbalances in the development of the creative economy. The current management tasks for the development of creative industries in Russia are proposed and justified.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69822146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-10
Т.В. Хамдамов, Журнал Нэа
The article discusses the evolution of two approaches to using computer simulations in economic research. The first was created by the American mathematician Norbert Wiener, who used the theory of cybernetics as a method of scientific research and cognition. The second, which also began its journey in the period 1944–1955, is based on the writings of John von Neumann, then a consultant to Los Alamos National Laboratory, and his invention of cellular automata. The first section provides an overview of the Wiener path, which became the guiding reference point for the Forrester system dynamics and Orcutt microsimulations. The second section presents the Neumann path, which gave birth to such methods as Monte Carlo and agent-based modeling, which, as a result, through the efforts of G. Epstein and P. Axtel, was transformed into a conceptual approach of artificial life specifically designed for socio-economic experiments. Finally, the third section explores the potential for developing hybrid simulations by combining the methods of the two paths in concern.
本文讨论了在经济研究中使用计算机模拟的两种方法的演变。第一个是由美国数学家诺伯特·维纳(Norbert Wiener)创造的，他将控制论理论作为科学研究和认知的一种方法。第二部也始于1944年至1955年，它是基于约翰·冯·诺伊曼(John von Neumann)的著作，他当时是洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室(Los Alamos National Laboratory)的顾问，并发明了细胞自动机。第一部分概述了维纳路径，它成为了Forrester系统动力学和Orcutt微模拟的指导参考点。第二部分介绍了诺伊曼路径，它产生了蒙特卡洛和基于主体的建模等方法，结果，通过G. Epstein和P. Axtel的努力，它被转化为专门为社会经济实验设计的人工生命的概念方法。最后，第三部分探讨了通过结合所关注的两条路径的方法开发混合模拟的潜力。
{"title":"A brief overview of the evolution of computer simulations in economic research","authors":"Т.В. Хамдамов, Журнал Нэа","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-10","url":null,"abstract":"The article discusses the evolution of two approaches to using computer simulations in economic research. The first was created by the American mathematician Norbert Wiener, who used the theory of cybernetics as a method of scientific research and cognition. The second, which also began its journey in the period 1944–1955, is based on the writings of John von Neumann, then a consultant to Los Alamos National Laboratory, and his invention of cellular automata. The first section provides an overview of the Wiener path, which became the guiding reference point for the Forrester system dynamics and Orcutt microsimulations. The second section presents the Neumann path, which gave birth to such methods as Monte Carlo and agent-based modeling, which, as a result, through the efforts of G. Epstein and P. Axtel, was transformed into a conceptual approach of artificial life specifically designed for socio-economic experiments. Finally, the third section explores the potential for developing hybrid simulations by combining the methods of the two paths in concern.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69822260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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