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The prospects for ecological modernization of Russian economy 俄罗斯经济生态现代化的前景
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-9
G. Safonov, V. Potashnikov, M. Safonov, A. Stetsenko, M. Kozeltsev, A. L. Dorina, A. A. Semakina, A. Sizonov
Development of the Russian economy over the last 20 years was based on intensive exploitation of natural resources that has led to a signifi cant increase of negative impacts on the environment, including growth of pollution and emissions of greenhouse gases. The environmental problems are also worsening on the global level, and the international community adopted several treaties aimed at reaching the goals of sustainable, socially, and environmentally balanced development. The “green” transformation of world economy leads to the fundamental changes in energy, industries, transport systems, switch to the eco-friendly business models, orientation of fi nancial fl ows and investments towards decarbonization of world economy. Phasing-out of fossil fuels and pollution-intensive products may result in signifi cant losses of export revenues, lack of access to capital and investment for Russia, if the ecological modernization of its economy would not happen. The projections based on TIMES model showed that Russia is capable to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 75–88% below 1990 level by 2050, while GDP per capita would increase threefold. It would ensure reaching the carbon neutrality goal by 2060 and compliance with the international commitments under the ecological conventions and agreements.
俄罗斯经济在过去20年的发展是基于对自然资源的集约化开采,这导致对环境的负面影响显著增加,包括污染和温室气体排放的增加。在全球一级,环境问题也在恶化,国际社会通过了若干条约,旨在实现可持续、社会和环境平衡发展的目标。世界经济的“绿色”转型导致能源、工业、运输系统的根本性变化,转向生态友好的商业模式,资金流动和投资转向世界经济的脱碳。如果俄罗斯经济的生态现代化无法实现,那么逐步淘汰化石燃料和污染密集型产品可能会导致俄罗斯出口收入的重大损失,缺乏获得资本和投资的渠道。基于TIMES模型的预测显示,到2050年,俄罗斯有能力将温室气体排放量在1990年的基础上减少75-88%,而人均GDP将增长三倍。它将确保到2060年达到碳中和目标,并遵守生态公约和协议下的国际承诺。
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引用次数: 0
Pharmaceutical industry in Russia: Key trends and developments 俄罗斯制药工业:主要趋势和发展
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-15
N. Ivanova, Z. Mamedyarov
The paper considers the specifics of innovation activity and scientific and technological development in R&D intensive pharmaceutical industry. A generalized comparison of Russian and foreign pharmaceutical industry during the current COVID-19 pandemic is carried out. The dynamics of the domestic pharmaceutical market development is analyzed; the trends and persisting problems are studied. The potential of growth of domestic pharmaceutical industry with adequate interaction of state and business in entering the world markets was shown. It is pointed out that both abroad and in Russia during the pandemic the industry became one of the few where research costs had increased significantly. The paper shows that support policy for pharmaceutical industry in Russia over the next 10 years will be emphasized on the creation of own innovative drugs (including biotech types), and generics for the domestic market. The new ways of production and digitalization of the pharmaceutical industry remain outside the current support measures.
研究了研发密集型制药行业创新活动和科技发展的特点。在当前COVID-19大流行期间,对俄罗斯和外国制药工业进行了广义比较。分析了国内医药市场发展动态;研究了发展趋势和存在的问题。在国家和企业充分互动的情况下,国内制药业进入世界市场的增长潜力得到了展示。有人指出,在大流行期间,无论是在国外还是在俄罗斯,该行业都成为少数几个研究费用大幅增加的行业之一。研究表明,俄罗斯未来10年的医药产业扶持政策将重点放在自主研发创新药(包括生物技术类)和面向国内市场的仿制药上。新的生产方式和制药行业的数字化仍然在当前的支持措施之外。
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引用次数: 0
Creative economy of the paternalistic state: What does the coming day hold for us? 家长式国家的创意经济:未来的一天会给我们带来什么?
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-11
А.Ya. Rubinstein
The paper presents the author’s view on the formation of economics of culture which was acceded to the neoclassical theory as a branch science only in the second half of XXth century with the inherent law of «price disease» causing deficiency of income of cultural goods producers. The present stage of the development of this science is determined by the modern theory of economic growth where the hypothesis of dependence of total factor productivity on intangible assets is presented as an innovation allowing discovering inner resources of culture and other creative economy branches which fundamentally change their position in the economic world. The question is about the economic valuation of the results of cultural activity, including copyrights that were transformed into intellectual property. At the same time, the article formulates a contrary assessment of the concept of cultural industries, which can only become an additional reason for the financial authorities to reduce the amount of budget subsidies to producers of cultural goods.
文化经济学的形成是20世纪下半叶才作为一门分支科学加入新古典主义理论的,其内在规律是造成文化产品生产者收入不足的“价格病”。这门科学目前的发展阶段是由现代经济增长理论决定的,其中全要素生产率依赖于无形资产的假设被提出为一种创新,允许发现文化和其他创意经济分支的内在资源,从而从根本上改变它们在经济世界中的地位。这个问题是关于文化活动成果的经济估价,包括转化为知识产权的版权。同时,文章对文化产业的概念进行了相反的评价,这只会成为财政当局减少对文化产品生产者的预算补贴的额外理由。
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引用次数: 1
The impact of financial development on income inequality in the Russian regions 金融发展对俄罗斯地区收入不平等的影响
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-5
O. A. Klachkova, D. O. Solonina
This paper examines the factors of income inequality, among which financial development is under the spotlight. The degree of financial sector development determines ease of borrowing for population and their access to higher education, impacts entrepreneurial activity. Mixed empirical implications on the link between finance and inequality and lack of research conducted for the Russian regions explain the motivation of this paper. Regional financial system is characterized by financial depth indicators, a ratio of consumer credit to regional GDP and of consumer deposits to regional GDP along with the statistics on opened bank accounts. Estimations obtained using a panel dataset and models with different dependent variable provide evidence that the level of development of the financial sector has a significant impact on income inequality in the Russian regions. The empirical implications suggest that inequality tends to be positively associated with the volume of consumer loans. Nevertheless, increased placement of consumer deposits and improvement in bank infrastructure cause reduction in income inequality.
本文考察了收入不平等的影响因素,其中金融发展受到关注。金融部门的发展程度决定了人口借贷的便利性及其接受高等教育的机会,影响了创业活动。金融与不平等之间的联系的混合实证含义和缺乏对俄罗斯地区进行的研究解释了本文的动机。区域金融体系的特征是金融深度指标、消费信贷与地区GDP的比率、消费存款与地区GDP的比率以及银行开户统计数据。使用具有不同因变量的面板数据集和模型获得的估计提供了证据,表明金融部门的发展水平对俄罗斯地区的收入不平等产生了重大影响。实证意义表明,不平等倾向于与消费贷款的数量呈正相关。然而,消费者存款的增加和银行基础设施的改善导致收入不平等的减少。
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引用次数: 1
The effects of additional non-stationary processes on the properties of DSGE-models 附加非平稳过程对dsge模型性质的影响
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-2
A. Votinov
DSGE models are based on the trend-cycle decomposition. The standard approach implies an out-of-model decomposition of the data, in which the trend component is discarded, and the parameters of the model are estimated on the cyclic one. This approach can lead to the loss of statistical information and reduce the quality of the model, which is crucial for practical purposes. The study suggests adding several sector-specifi c exogenous non-stationary processes to the model, which complement the standard DSGE model. The in-model detrending is described, and an approach to GMM-estimation of the non-stationary processes’ parameters is proposed. Several results are obtained. First, the inclusion of such non-stationary processes in the model increases the marginal density and improves the accuracy of forecasting within the sample. This result is robust to the inclusion of measurement errors in the model. Secondly, it is shown that the addition of exogenous trends allows obtaining a more plausible decomposition of data into a trend and a cycle. Finally, the use of the GMM approach to estimating the trends’ parameters makes possible to increase the marginal density. The results obtained in the paper can be used to create practice-oriented DSGE models.
DSGE模型基于趋势周期分解。标准方法意味着数据的模型外分解,其中趋势分量被丢弃,模型的参数在循环分量上估计。这种方法可能导致统计信息的丢失,并降低模型的质量,这对于实际目的至关重要。该研究建议在模型中加入几个特定部门的外生非平稳过程,以补充标准DSGE模型。描述了模型内去趋势,提出了一种非平稳过程参数的gmm估计方法。得到了几个结果。首先,在模型中加入这些非平稳过程增加了边际密度,提高了样本内预测的精度。该结果对模型中包含的测量误差具有鲁棒性。其次,研究表明,外生趋势的加入可以更合理地将数据分解为趋势和周期。最后,利用GMM方法估计趋势参数,使边际密度增大成为可能。本文所得结果可用于建立面向实践的DSGE模型。
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引用次数: 0
Financial sector efficiency: Present concepts and the estimation problem 金融部门效率:目前的概念和估计问题
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-5
Y. Danilov
This article presents classification of existing concepts of the efficiency of the financial sector. Proposed the hypothesis that assessments of the microeconomic and informational efficiency of the financial sector are fundamentally based on the concept of transaction costs. Suggested a number of indicators for assessing the macroeconomic efficiency of the financial market and their approbation on the Russian data. We identified four areas for assessing the effectiveness of the financial sector, differing in the level of consideration, recognition of the principle of rationality, accounting for transaction costs: assessing the macro-efficiency of the financial sector; information-efficient market hypothesis; the concept of adaptive markets. The assumption is formulated that the concepts studying the efficiency of financial systems at the micro level, as well as the efficient market hypothesis, are based on the principle of minimizing transaction costs. While there is a significant theoretical backlog on the issue of macroeconomic efficiency of the financial sector, there is a shortage of quantitative estimates, so we tried to offer a number of such indicators, focusing on the functions of financial markets in a developing economy. The article constructs the estimates of the macroeconomic efficiency of the Russian financial market from two sides of the process of transforming savings into investments (attracting investments by enterprises and placing savings by households).
本文对现有的金融部门效率概念进行了分类。提出了金融部门微观经济和信息效率的评估基本上基于交易成本概念的假设。建议了一些指标,以评估金融市场的宏观经济效率和他们对俄罗斯数据的认可。我们确定了评估金融部门有效性的四个领域,在考虑程度、对理性原则的认识、交易成本核算方面有所不同:评估金融部门的宏观效率;信息有效市场假说;适应性市场的概念。假设微观层面研究金融体系效率的概念和有效市场假说都是基于交易成本最小化的原则。虽然在金融部门的宏观经济效率问题上存在大量的理论积压,但缺乏定量估计,因此我们试图提供一些这样的指标,重点关注金融市场在发展中经济体中的功能。本文从储蓄向投资转化过程(企业吸引投资和居民储蓄投放)两个方面构建了俄罗斯金融市场宏观经济效率的估计。
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引用次数: 0
Phillips curve: Infl ation and NAIRU in the Russian regions 菲利普斯曲线:俄罗斯地区的通货膨胀和NAIRU
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-4
D. A. Orlov, E. Postnikov
Price stability is one of the strategic goals of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia. A significant factor of inflationary pressure on the economy is short-term deviations of the unemployment rate from NAIRU. At the same time, the relationship between the labor market and inflationary processes at the regional level may differ significantly. This paper examines regional heterogeneity in the Russian labor market in the form of a Phillips curve. An important feature for choosing the main research method is the lack of statistical information about NAIRU. Based on the models of unobservable components using the Kalman filter, the influence of the unemployment gap on inflation in each region of the Russian Federation is estimated. The constructed models take into account the impact on inflation of the main premises of the theory of rational expectations, supply shocks and inflation lags. Conclusions were drawn that there is a significant relationship between the unemployment gap and inflation for most of the Russian regions, while the sensitivity of inflation to changes in the labor market in the country as a whole is rather weak. Regions with proinflationary and disinflationary influence from the labor market were identified.
物价稳定是俄罗斯央行货币政策的战略目标之一。对经济造成通货膨胀压力的一个重要因素是失业率与NAIRU的短期偏差。与此同时,劳动力市场与通胀过程之间的关系在地区层面上可能存在显著差异。本文以菲利普斯曲线的形式考察了俄罗斯劳动力市场的区域异质性。选择主要研究方法的一个重要特点是缺乏关于NAIRU的统计信息。基于使用卡尔曼滤波的不可观测分量模型,估计了俄罗斯联邦各地区失业差距对通货膨胀的影响。所构建的模型考虑了理性预期理论对通胀影响的主要前提、供给冲击和通胀滞后。得出的结论是,在俄罗斯大部分地区,失业差距和通货膨胀之间存在显著的关系,而通货膨胀对整个国家劳动力市场变化的敏感性相当弱。确定了受劳动力市场影响的促通胀和反通胀地区。
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引用次数: 0
Stay healthy – will the rest follow? The impact of health on wages in Russia 保持健康——其他的会随之而来吗?健康对俄罗斯工资的影响
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-4
М. А. Карцева, РАНХиГС, Москва, П. О. Кузнецова, М. А. Карцева, П. О. Кузнецова, Журнал Нэа
In this article, we analyze the impact of health on wages in Russia in 2012–2019, using the data from the RLMS-HSE survey. As a measure of health impact we consider hour wages. Health is estimated by means of self-assessed health data. We use a Minсer-type wage equation. To take into account self-selection, we use the Heckman procedure to deal with the unobservable heterogeneity; we employ the panel structure of the RLMS-HSE data. The impact of health on hour wages in Russia is significant, but not great: good and very good health corresponds to an increase in earnings of 2–5% compared to average health for men and 1–3% for women. Bad health significantly reduces wages, but when self-selection is taken into account, its effect becomes insignificant. The impact of health on wages is markedly increased for groups with a low level of education, which, in our opinion, may indicate a greater importance of health for unskilled and physical labor. The robustness of our results was tested using an alternative data source.
在本文中,我们使用RLMS-HSE调查的数据,分析了2012-2019年俄罗斯健康对工资的影响。作为衡量健康影响的一项指标,我们考虑计时工资。健康是通过自我评估的健康数据来估计的。我们使用minerer型工资方程。为了考虑自我选择,我们使用Heckman程序来处理不可观察的异质性;采用RLMS-HSE数据面板结构。在俄罗斯,健康对小时工资的影响是显著的,但不是很大:与平均健康水平相比,良好和非常良好的健康水平相当于收入增加2-5%,与平均健康水平相比,女性相当于收入增加1-3%。健康状况不佳会显著降低工资,但如果考虑到自我选择,其影响就微不足道了。对于受教育程度较低的群体,健康对工资的影响明显增加,我们认为,这可能表明健康对非技术劳动和体力劳动更为重要。我们的结果的稳健性是使用另一个数据源进行测试的。
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引用次数: 0
A paternalistic state and civil society 一个家长式的国家和公民社会
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-9
Горячая тема, Журнал Нэа, А. Е. Городецкий
The society consists of many different groups of people interacting with each other, civil society and the state, the paternalistic form of which is not a phenomenon of recent centuries. Although the term emerged much later, the phenomenon itself emerged in early history, essentially simultaneously with the formation of families with their patriarchal paternalism. The transfer of the household form of paternalism to the state laid the foundation for the future paternalistic state. At the same time, modern state paternalism differs, as a rule, from the patriarchal model, firstly, by the collective nature of the generation of state interests — the public choice and, secondly, by the democratisation of the very process of formation of these interests. The theoretical and historical analysis provides basis for examining the process of evolution of the paternalistic state with its inherent risks of distorting public choice. The article identifies six stages in the evolution of the state and formulates the fundamental reasons for the failure of society, the state which allows the choice of goals of the paternalistic state that do not correspond to the interests of society, and erroneous strategies for their realisation. The analysis suggests that, having failed to create a mature civil society, for most of the thirty years after socialism the country has lived in conditions of sliding down to the fourth phase of paternalistic state evolution, to its decline and uncertainty of the future.
社会是由许多不同的群体组成的,他们相互作用,公民社会和国家,家长式的形式不是最近几个世纪的现象。虽然这个术语出现得晚得多,但这种现象本身在早期历史中就出现了,基本上是与带有父权家长制的家庭形成同时出现的。家庭形式的家长制向国家的转移,为日后家长制国家的形成奠定了基础。与此同时,现代国家家长制通常与父权模式不同,首先是国家利益产生的集体性质——公共选择,其次是这些利益形成过程的民主化。理论和历史分析为考察家长制国家的演变过程及其扭曲公共选择的内在风险提供了基础。本文确定了国家演变的六个阶段,并阐述了社会失败的根本原因,国家允许家长式国家选择不符合社会利益的目标,以及实现这些目标的错误策略。分析表明,由于未能建立一个成熟的公民社会,在社会主义之后的三十年的大部分时间里,这个国家一直生活在滑向家长式国家演变的第四阶段的条件下,走向衰落和未来的不确定性。
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引用次数: 1
Decision making on the technology transfer in regional innovation cluster under uncertainty and risk 不确定性和风险下的区域创新集群技术转移决策
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-6
V. Chaplygin, V. Moroz
Regional innovative clusters unite various organizations related to high-tech industries, which is located in concrete region, on the basis of cooperative activity, common interests and complementarity to their functions, resources and capabilities. This accelerates research and development processes and provides market entry of final product that is of fundamental importance for competitiveness of manufactured product as well as of regional innovative cluster as a hole and region of its location. The paper aims to develop methods and recommendations on technology transfer in regional innovation cluster as a tool for optimization of risks of its innovation activity. They include the development of the methodology for decision making on transfer of technology in innovation cluster under uncertainty and risk. As a result, we made calculations on the conditional example, in accordance with proposed methodology. In conclusion, application of proposed methodology in regional innovation cluster allows to optimize risks at the stage of implementation of developed technology in the manufacturing of final product and to accelerate its market entry that can be considered as a factor of regional economic competitiveness.
区域创新集群是将特定区域内与高技术产业相关的各类组织,以合作活动、共同利益和职能、资源、能力的互补为基础,联合起来的。这加快了研发进程,并提供了最终产品的市场准入,这对制成品的竞争力以及区域创新集群作为一个洞和其所在区域的竞争力至关重要。本文旨在提出区域创新集群技术转移的方法和建议,作为优化区域创新集群创新活动风险的工具。其中包括不确定性和风险下创新集群技术转移决策方法的发展。因此,我们根据所提出的方法对条件算例进行了计算。综上所述,将本文提出的方法应用于区域创新集群,可以优化已开发技术在最终产品制造实施阶段的风险,并加速其市场进入,从而可以视为区域经济竞争力的一个因素。
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引用次数: 0
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Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association
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