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Estratégia ótima para declarar perdas no mercado de seguros de automóveis 汽车保险市场亏损申报的最佳策略
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-03-07 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416147171BLM
Bruno Aurichio, Mariana F. Boreli
Upon analyzing an extensive database on the Brazilian auto insurance market, we found a stylized fact: the frequency of claims is higher in the first months of the contract. In order to explain this fact, we propose a modified version of Venezia and Levy (1980) model, in which we show that pseudodeductible is lower at the beginning of the contract. The pseudodeductible is an unobservable threshold, higher than the deductible stipulated in the contract, below which the insuree has an incentive not to claim his losses. Given that the pseudodeductible is smaller at the beginning of the contract, the model predicts that there will be a higher frequency of losses (of lower value) being claimed in this period. In order to test this prediction, we regressed the logarithm of indemnities against dummies that indicate the time of the contract, and we found that in the first trimester of the contract the average value of claimed losses is approximately 2.21% lower than the second trimester. This information can be used by insurers to adjust deductibles in the first months of contracts in order to reduce their claim rates.
通过对巴西汽车保险市场的广泛数据库进行分析,我们发现了一个程式化的事实:在合同的头几个月,索赔的频率更高。为了解释这一事实,我们提出了一个修正版的Venezia和Levy(1980)模型,其中我们表明,在合同开始时,假可抵扣额较低。假免赔额是一个不可观察的阈值,高于合同中规定的免赔额,低于该阈值,被保险人有不索赔损失的动机。鉴于假免赔额在合同开始时较小,该模型预测,在此期间索赔(价值较低的)损失的频率将更高。为了验证这一预测,我们对指示合同时间的假人赔偿的对数进行了回归,我们发现,在合同的前三个月,索赔损失的平均值比第二个三个月低约2.21%。这些信息可以被保险公司用来调整合同头几个月的免赔额,以降低他们的索赔率。
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引用次数: 0
O efeito da interação social entre os jovens nas decisões de consumo de álcool, cigarros e outras drogas ilícitas 青少年之间的社会互动对酒精、香烟和其他非法药物消费决定的影响
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-03-07 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416147136KLB
Kalinca Léia Becker
This study analyzed the influence of the social interactions effect of young people in schools, public and private, on the consumption decisions of illicit drugs, alcohol or cigarettes. For this, individual behavior equations were estimated with instruments for social interactions and data from the National School of Health, 2012. The results indicated that the effect of these interactions on consumption decisions of illicit substances are higher compared to the influence of characteristics families. For example, moving a young in a public school where 80% of students smoke to a school where this rate is 50% would completely offset the higher risk of youth smoking associated with the fact of a parent smoking. In addition, the results showed that parental involvement with the activities of the children may be more important to inhibit the consumption of drugs, alcohol and cigarettes than parents' education and family living standards.
本研究分析了青少年在公立和私立学校的社会互动效应对非法药物、酒精或香烟消费决策的影响。为此,使用社会互动工具和2012年国家卫生学院的数据估计了个人行为方程。结果表明,与特征家庭的影响相比,这些相互作用对非法物质消费决策的影响更高。例如,将一所80%学生吸烟的公立学校的学生搬到一所吸烟率为50%的学校,将完全抵消由于父母吸烟而导致的青少年吸烟的较高风险。此外,研究结果表明,父母参与孩子的活动可能比父母的教育和家庭生活水平对抑制毒品、酒精和香烟的消费更重要。
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引用次数: 5
AH1N1 impact on the Mexican pork meat market 甲型h1n1流感对墨西哥猪肉市场的影响
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-01-09 DOI: 10.24201/EEV32I11
E. Ayala, Joana Chapa
This article presents estimates of AH1N1's effects on the consumption of pork through an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) for meat consumption in Mexico. Additionally, indirect effects through the Mexican economy are estimated using a general equilibrium model that captures the effects of intersectoral relationships and the induced effects by the circular flow of income. It is concluded that the presumed risk of contracting AH1N1 via pork consumption provoked total economic losses of $94 million. The rumor affected the pork sector, the grains sector and the manufacturing sector of food, beverages and tobacco. The poor rural households were the most affected.
本文通过墨西哥肉类消费的几乎理想需求系统(AIDS)提出了甲型h1n1流感对猪肉消费影响的估计。此外,利用一般均衡模型估计了墨西哥经济的间接影响,该模型捕捉了部门间关系的影响和收入循环流动的诱导影响。结论是,通过食用猪肉感染甲型h1n1流感的假定风险造成了9400万美元的经济损失。谣言影响了猪肉行业、谷物行业以及食品、饮料和烟草制造业。贫困的农村家庭受到的影响最大。
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引用次数: 1
El ciclo económico de la productividad y su relación con el ciclo político en México, 1993.1 - 2014.4 墨西哥生产力的经济周期及其与政治周期的关系,1993.1 - 2014.4
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.24201/EE.V32I1.3
Vicente Germán-Soto, Cesáreo Gámez Garza
The political-business cycle (PBC) theory sustains that economies are positively influenced in the last year of each government administration and also they tend to slowdown in the first year. To investigate this hypothesis, we analyze the cycle of productivity of the manufacturing industry in Mexico along 1993.1-–2014.4. Results from dynamic models indicate that strength of productivity is relatively minor for the quarters 1 and 4, a finding that is related to the political cycle because elasticity also falls in the quarters of the first year of government and increases in the last.
政治经济周期理论认为,经济在每届政府执政的最后一年受到积极影响,而且在第一年往往会放缓。为了研究这一假设,我们分析了墨西哥制造业在1993.1—2014.4期间的生产率周期。动态模型的结果表明,第1季度和第4季度的生产率强度相对较小,这一发现与政治周期有关,因为弹性在政府第一年的季度也会下降,而在最后一个季度会增加。
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引用次数: 1
Corrupção e Crescimento: os impactos da corrupção ponderados pelos diferentes graus de eficiência entre as firmas 腐败与增长:企业间不同效率程度的腐败影响加权
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2016-12-08 DOI: 10.1590/0101-4161464782LAPM
Leonardo Andrade Rocha, A. Khan, P. Lima, Maria Ester Soares Dal Poz
This study examined the impact of corruption on growth of firms with different levels of efficiency. The study was made from the non-parametric efficiency scores technique, was adjusted a linear regression model interacting the different scores with a corruption index. The results have shown that corruption has negative impacts on low-performing firms, unlike high-performing firms. In this sense, the position of an efficient firm as the quantile frontier affects significantly the consequences of corruption, suggesting a heterogeneous effect that is not accurately captured by traditional techniques. These results corroborate scientific studies carried out by Batra, Kaufmann and Stone (2003), Wang and You (2012) and Jiang and Nie (2014).
本研究考察了不同效率水平的企业腐败对其成长的影响。研究采用非参数效率评分技术,调整了不同得分与腐败指数相互作用的线性回归模型。结果表明,与高绩效企业不同,腐败对低绩效企业有负面影响。从这个意义上说,高效企业作为分位数边界的位置显著影响腐败的后果,表明传统技术无法准确捕捉到的异质性效应。这些结果证实了Batra、Kaufmann和Stone(2003)、Wang和You(2012)以及Jiang和Nie(2014)的科学研究。
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引用次数: 2
Os efeitos da criação de leis de meia entrada para estudantes sobre o consumo de bens e serviços culturais no Brasil 巴西学生半价法的制定对文化商品和服务消费的影响
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2016-12-08 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416146471MFSP
Marcos Vinicio Wink Junior, Felipe Garcia Ribeiro, Stéfano Florissi, Pedro Tonon Zuanazzi
This paper estimates the effects of the laws of half price tickets on the consumption of cultural goods and services of Brazilian students using samples collected for all metropolitan regions from the Household Budget Surveys (HBS), carried out in 1987/88, 1995 / 96, 2002/03 and 2008/09. We evaluate the effects of the laws on the proportion of students that consume cultural services and changes in their expenses with those services. We explore the time differences of the creation of those laws among Brazilian states to estimate a causal relationship using the Difference-in-differences (DD) and Triple differences (DDD) methodology. We found that the laws of half price tickets had positive effects on increasing the likelihood that students consume cultural goods and services and on raising their spending with those goods and services.
本文利用1987/88年、1995 / 96年、2002/03年和2008/09年进行的家庭预算调查(HBS)中收集的所有大都市地区的样本,估计了半价门票法律对巴西学生文化商品和服务消费的影响。我们评估了法律对消费文化服务的学生比例的影响,以及他们在这些服务上的费用变化。我们探讨了巴西各州之间制定这些法律的时间差异,以使用差中差(DD)和三重差(DDD)方法估计因果关系。我们发现,半价门票的法律对增加学生消费文化商品和服务的可能性以及提高他们在这些商品和服务上的支出有积极的影响。
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引用次数: 1
Matrizes de contabilidade social e financeira: Brasil, 2005 a 2009 社会和财务会计矩阵:巴西,2005年至2009年
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2016-12-08 DOI: 10.1590/0101-4161464936EFF
Érika Burkowski, Fernanda Finotti Cordeiro Perobelli, F. S. Perobelli
This paper proposes a methodology for preparation a Financial and Social Accounting Matrices (F-SAM) for the Brazilian economy by combination of the input-output matrices production flow with income flows and financial flows of Integrated Economic Accounts. We present the Brazilian F-SAM for the years 2005 to 2009, with 55 productive sectors, 3 production factors, 4 institutional agents and 7 financial instruments. The Trade sector and Public Administration are important in the production and generation of added value. The Food and Beverage industry has great capacity for dispersal of funds in the economy and there is a strong dependence on transfers in income distribution among domestic economic agents. Excess liquidity and the downsizing observed in the period are perceived by the variation observed in Cash and Deposits and on the variation of financial assets and liabilities.
本文提出了一种为巴西经济编制财政和社会会计矩阵(F-SAM)的方法,该方法将综合经济账户的投入产出矩阵生产流与收入流和资金流结合起来。我们展示了2005年至2009年巴西的F-SAM,包括55个生产部门,3个生产要素,4个机构代理人和7个金融工具。贸易部门和公共行政在生产和创造附加价值方面是重要的。食品和饮料行业在经济中具有很大的资金分散能力,并且在国内经济主体之间的收入分配中有很强的转移依赖性。从现金和存款项下的变动和金融资产和负债项下的变动可以看出这一期间所观察到的流动性过剩和缩减。
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引用次数: 0
Migração intrametropolitana e mobilidade pendular: Evidências para a Região Metropolitana do Recife 大都市内部迁移和通勤:累西腓大都市地区的证据
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2016-12-08 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416146483HRDB
Hilton Martins de Brito Ramalho, Danyella Juliana Martins de Brito
O artigo investiga se ha relacao entre mobilidade pendular e migracoes na Regiao Metropolitana do Recife (RMR). Nesse intuito, foram usados dados do Censo Demografico de 2010 e estimado um modelo de efeito-tratamento baseado em copulas e que incorpora autosselecao de trabalhadores entre migrantes e nao migrantes. Os resultados sugerem uma relacao complementar entre as escolhas de cidade de residencia e de cidade de trabalho no meio intrametropolitano; fato que reforca a hipotese de influencia direta do processo de descentralizacao urbana sobre os movimentos pendulares. As estimativas mostraram que um trabalhador com historico recente de migracao na RMR tem, em media, 47,6 p.p. a mais de probabilidade de efetuar a mobilidade pendular quando comparado a um nao migrante. Esse efeito tende a ser subestimado quando se ignora a autosselecao dos migrantes em habilidades inatas.
本文探讨了累西腓都市区通勤与移民之间的关系。为此,我们使用了2010年人口普查的数据,并估计了一个基于copulas的治疗效应模型,该模型包含了工人在移民和非移民之间的自动选择。结果表明,城市内居住城市和工作城市的选择之间存在着互补的关系;这一事实强化了城市分权过程对通勤运动的直接影响的可能性。估计表明,与非移民相比,在RMR中有近期移民历史的工人平均有47.6 p.p.的可能性更大。当忽视移民天生技能的自我选择时,这种影响往往被低估。
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引用次数: 10
Impactos do controle do preço da gasolina sobre o etanol biocombustível no Brasil 巴西汽油价格控制对乙醇生物燃料的影响
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2016-12-08 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416146418CCHB
C. C. D. Costa, H. L. Burnquist
This work estimated the effect of price control of gasoline A on the hydrated ethanol and gasoline C in Brazilian fuel markets. For that, the prices that would prevail without intervention were evaluated. The results show that the Brazilian government intervention in the gasoline price stimulated the production of hydrated ethanol by keeping its price 9% higher than estimated, on average, along the period of 2006 to 2010. Through the 2011 to 2014 period, the government intervention reduced gasoline price, what had a negative effect on the hydrous ethanol price (7% lower than estimated) and its production, as well as the financial health of the state firm that supplies gasoline A. In 2015, the government restricted the transmission of reductions in the international price of gasoline to the domestic market, keeping the domestic price 7% higher than expected, and harming the competitiveness of the Brazilian economic sectors for which fossil fuel is a relevant item in the production cost.
本研究估计了汽油A价格管制对巴西燃料市场水合乙醇和汽油C的影响。为此,评估了在没有干预的情况下会占上风的价格。结果表明,巴西政府对汽油价格的干预刺激了水合乙醇的生产,使其价格在2006年至2010年期间平均高出预期9%。在2011年至2014年期间,政府干预降低了汽油价格,这对含水乙醇价格(比预期低7%)及其产量产生了负面影响,也对供应汽油a的国有企业的财务状况产生了负面影响。2015年,政府限制将国际汽油价格的下调传导到国内市场,使国内价格比预期高出7%。并损害巴西经济部门的竞争力,因为化石燃料是生产成本的相关项目。
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引用次数: 13
Análise econômica da primeira Lei de Patentes brasileira 巴西第一部专利法的经济分析
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2016-12-08 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416146484ACLP
A. Cabello, L. Póvoa
Brazil was one of the first countries to have a patent law and one of the only ones to grant patent length according to the quality of the invention. This paper analyzes an unpublished dataset with all the 783 industrial privileges granted under the first Brazilian patent law between 1830 and 1882. Our results show that inventive activity was linked to the economic and social structure of the time and that labor scarcity led to the invention of machines and equipment for the coffee sector. The number of patents only increased from 1870 and on, when economic conditions improved, showing how little can be achieved by a patent law in an economically stagnant environment. However, it was the least expensive mechanism to stimulate inventive activity in Brazil in the XIX century.
巴西是最早制定专利法的国家之一,也是为数不多的根据发明质量授予专利期限的国家之一。本文分析了一个未发表的数据集,其中包含1830年至1882年间巴西第一部专利法授予的所有783项工业特权。我们的研究结果表明,发明活动与当时的经济和社会结构有关,劳动力短缺导致了咖啡部门机器和设备的发明。专利的数量从1870年开始增加,当经济条件改善时,这表明在经济停滞的环境中,专利法所能取得的成就是多么的少。然而,在19世纪的巴西,这是刺激发明活动成本最低的机制。
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引用次数: 6
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