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Probabilidades de admissão e desligamento no mercado de trabalho brasileiro 进入和退出巴西劳动力市场的可能性
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2016-06-02 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416146222DNB
Douglas Uemura Nunes, Naercio Menezes-Filho, B. Komatsu
This paper evaluates the probabilities of admission and dismissal in the Brazilian labor market, and measures its contribution to the variability of the unemployment rate in the country. It uses a new methodology, which allows obtaining the probabilities through stocks of employed and unemployed correcting the time aggregation bias. We found that for the period of 1983 to 2001, the oscillations of the rate of admission were responsible for 75% of the variability in the unemployment rate in major metropolitan areas of Brazil. Between 2004 and 2013 that rate explains 80% of those variations.
本文评估了巴西劳动力市场的录取和解雇概率,并测量了其对该国失业率变异性的贡献。它使用了一种新的方法,该方法允许通过就业和失业股票来获得概率,从而纠正了时间聚集偏差。我们发现,在1983年至2001年期间,巴西主要大都市地区75%的失业率变化是由入学率的波动造成的。从2004年到2013年,这一比率解释了80%的变化。
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引用次数: 6
Patrones de co-localización espacial de la industria aeroespacial en México 墨西哥航空航天工业的空间共定位模式
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2016-06-01 DOI: 10.24201/EE.V31I1.15
A. González, S. Sánchez, M. A. F. Segovia
Mexico's aerospace industry (IA) is considered strategic due to the possibilities offered to national business to be inserted into supply chain; by its productive characteristics involves the development of suppliers by externalities, which requires business co-location. This document applies the Co-location Quotient (CLQ) statistic in five Mexican entities in order to detect spatial co-location patterns in clusters related to the IA. The results indicate its spatial attraction to aerospace business, as well as electronics, machinery and equipment. Additionally, it can be identified differences in regards co-location patters with respect to the productive capacities by entity; this suggests inputs for the design of industrial policy.
墨西哥的航空航天工业(IA)被认为是战略性的,因为它为国家企业提供了进入供应链的可能性;由于其生产特点涉及到供应商的外部性发展,这就要求企业共址。本文在五个墨西哥实体中应用了共位商(CLQ)统计数据,以检测与IA相关的集群中的空间共位模式。结果表明,其空间吸引力的航空航天业务,以及电子,机械和设备。此外,可以确定各实体在生产能力方面的同址模式方面的差异;这为产业政策的设计提供了建议。
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引用次数: 2
REMESAS, CRECIMIENTO Y CONVERGENCIA REGIONAL EN MÉXICO: APROXIMACIÓN CON UN MODELO PANEL-ESPACIAL 墨西哥的汇款、增长和区域融合:面板空间模型的方法
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2016-06-01 DOI: 10.24201/EE.V31I1.14
M. González, M. López
Mexico receive flow of remittances similar to those depicted by the flow of foreign direct investment. The central purpose of this paper is to discuss weather remittances are a significant factor to promote regional economic growth. This research shows that remittances contribute to the growth of GDP per capita when heterogeneity and spatial dependence are taking into account. These two spatial components are introduced in the analysis by implementing a standard convergence growth model under spatial econometric methods of panel data at state level for the 2001-2010 period.
墨西哥收到的汇款流量与外国直接投资流量所描述的类似。本文的中心目的是讨论天气汇款是促进区域经济增长的重要因素。研究表明,在考虑异质性和空间依赖性的情况下,汇款对人均GDP的增长有促进作用。在2001-2010年国家层面面板数据的空间计量方法下,采用标准的收敛增长模型,引入了这两个空间分量。
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引用次数: 10
ANÁLISIS DE DIFERENCIAS EN PUNTAJES EN LA PRUEBA ENLACE ENTRE NIÑOS Y NIÑAS EN EL SISTEMA ESCOLAR MEXICANO 墨西哥学校系统中男孩和女孩之间的链接测试分数差异分析
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2016-06-01 DOI: 10.24201/EE.V31I1.13
Raymundo M. Campos Vázquez, A. S. S. Hernández
This paper analyzes the gender gap in standardized test scores in Mexico. The data used comes from the ENLACE test for primary, junior high and high school. In primary and junior high school, girls perform better than boys in both spanish and math across the test score distribution, but in the top part of the math score distribution. In high school, across the test score distribution, girls perform better than boys in spanish and the opposite occurs in math.
本文分析了墨西哥标准化考试成绩的性别差异。使用的数据来自小学,初中和高中的ENLACE测试。在小学和初中,女生在西班牙语和数学方面的成绩优于男生,但在数学成绩分布的顶部。在高中,从考试成绩分布来看,女孩的西班牙语成绩好于男孩,而数学成绩则相反。
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引用次数: 1
Demanda por gastos públicos locais: evidências dos efeitos de ilusão fiscal no Brasil 地方公共支出需求:巴西财政错觉效应的证据
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2016-04-01 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416146116JAR
Jevuks Matheus Araújo, Rozane Bezerra de Siqueira
In addition to the complexity and opacity of taxation, the strong reliance of Brazilian municipalities on federal and state transfers increases the chance of fiscal illusion. Under fiscal illusion, taxpayers tend to underestimate the costs of the goods and services provided by the government and, thus, to demand them in excess of what would be demanded in the absence of fiscal illusion. The purpose of this study is to estimate the effects of fiscal illusion on the demand for local public spending in Brazil. Based on a median voter model and using data from 2010 for 5249 municipalities, a demand function for local public goods that includes variables to capture fiscal illusion is estimated. The results indicate that fiscal illusion associated to the tax structure and to the fiscal transfers can help to understand the expansion of public spending in Brazil.
除了税收的复杂性和不透明性之外,巴西市政当局对联邦和州转移支付的严重依赖增加了财政错觉的可能性。在财政幻觉下,纳税人倾向于低估政府提供的商品和服务的成本,因此,对它们的需求超过了在没有财政幻觉的情况下的需求。本研究的目的是估计财政错觉对巴西地方公共支出需求的影响。基于中位选民模型,使用2010年5249个城市的数据,估计了一个包含捕捉财政错觉变量的地方公共产品需求函数。研究结果表明,与税收结构和财政转移相关的财政错觉有助于理解巴西公共支出的扩张。
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引用次数: 20
Pelos serviços prestados: o perfil do escravo alforriado em Mariana no período 1840-1888 所提供的服务:1840-1888年马里亚纳解放奴隶的概况
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2016-04-01 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416146114HMT
H. Teixeira
As cartas de alforria geralmente traziam prenome, idade, cor e naturalidade referentes aos escravos alforriados. Elas poderiam conter ainda informacoes sobre o estado civil, a filiacao, a ocupacao e o valor dos escravos. Atraves dessas informacoes e da analise quantitativa, tracamos o perfil do escravo libertado em Mariana (regiao economicamente voltada para a producao de alimentos) verificando se as caracteristicas do alforriado modificaram-se ao longo do tempo durante o periodo 1840-1888, buscando apreender as transformacoes na concessao da manumissao no contexto das leis abolicionistas.
释放信通常印有被释放奴隶的名字、年龄、颜色和自然特征。它们还可能包含关于奴隶的婚姻状况、从属关系、职业和价值的信息。通过这些数据的分析和量化,tracamos奴隶,在马里亚纳的资料(地区经济朝向食品)检查生产特点的释放在他们改变随着时间的推移在1840 - -1888期间,寻找应对的transformacoes manumissao环境法律发行的废奴主义者。
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引用次数: 1
Moeda, crédito e ciclos econômicos em Marshall 马歇尔的货币、信贷和商业周期
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2016-04-01 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416146127SFR
Sérgio Fornazier Meyrelles Filho, R. Arthmar
This paper reviews Alfred Marshall's analysis of commercial cycles and the role of both speculation and credit in the different phases of this process. After a brief introduction to the subject, Marshall's concepts of normal and banking interest rates, as well as his restatement of the Quantity Theory of Money, are discussed. Next, comes his explanation of the business cycles, where the theoretical elements seen in the previous sections are articulated in a single structure. Lastly, Marshall's monetary theory is compared with the contributions by Irving Fisher and Knut Wicksell, highlighting the points of convergence, as well as the ones of disagreement, among these prominent neoclassical monetary theorists. A formal dynamic version of the Marshallian model of business cycles is presented in appendix.
本文回顾了马歇尔对商业周期的分析,以及投机和信贷在这一过程中不同阶段的作用。在对该主题进行简要介绍之后,讨论了马歇尔的正常利率和银行利率概念,以及他对货币数量理论的重述。接下来是他对商业周期的解释,在前面章节中看到的理论元素被清晰地表达在一个结构中。最后,将马歇尔的货币理论与欧文·费雪(Irving Fisher)和克努特·维克塞尔(Knut Wicksell)的贡献进行比较,突出这些杰出的新古典货币理论家之间的趋同点和分歧点。马绍尔商业周期模型的正式动态版本在附录中给出。
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引用次数: 0
Aversão à desigualdade e preferências por redistribuição: A percepção de mobilidade econômica as afeta no Brasil? 对不平等的厌恶和对再分配的偏好:对经济流动性的感知对巴西有影响吗?
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2016-04-01 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416146193YMF
Yasmín Salazar Méndez, Fábio Waltenberg
The notion that redistribution is from the rich to the poor a priori could lead to the conclusion that the poor are the main supporters of redistributive policies, since they are the potential beneficiaries. Nevertheless, evidence for developed countries suggests that inequality aversion and preferences for redistribution are shaped by factors beyond pecuniary concerns. This paper analyzes the effect of subjective economic mobility on inequality aversion and on the demand for redistribution, employing a unique dataset collected in 2012, which is representative of the Brazilian population. In contrast with theoretical predictions and empirical evidence for developed countries, results suggest that even people who aspire to ascend socially in the future dislike inequality and support redistributive policies. Individuals who perceived a decline in their social situation have also shown support for redistribution, which is a more standard result. Both sets of results are confirmed by estimations undertaken on subsamples defined according to family income. Some hypotheses are raised attempting to explain the unexpected results.
再分配是从富人到穷人的先验概念可能导致穷人是再分配政策的主要支持者的结论,因为他们是潜在的受益者。然而,发达国家的证据表明,对不平等的厌恶和对再分配的偏好是由金钱以外的因素决定的。本文分析了主观经济流动性对不平等厌恶和再分配需求的影响,采用了2012年收集的独特数据集,该数据集代表了巴西人口。与发达国家的理论预测和经验证据相反,结果表明,即使是渴望在未来社会地位上升的人也不喜欢不平等,并支持再分配政策。那些认为自己的社会地位下降的人也表现出对再分配的支持,这是一个更标准的结果。根据家庭收入对子样本进行的估计证实了这两组结果。人们提出了一些假设,试图解释这些意想不到的结果。
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引用次数: 1
Efeitos do gasto do governo sobre o consumo privado: Evidências de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento 政府支出对私人消费的影响:来自发达国家和发展中国家的证据
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2016-04-01 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416146151GFS
G. Soave, F. A. Gomes, Sérgio Naruhiko Sakurai
Recently, the effects of government spending on private consumption have been analyzed through macroeconomic models in which a fraction of agents smooth their intertemporal consumption while the others, the credit constrained ones, consume based on its disposable income. Under this approach, we argue that there is a cointegration relation between private consumption, government spending, and disposable income that allows us to analyze whether government spending crowds in or crowds out private consumption. We estimated this relation for 48 countries using panel error-correction models accounting for common factors and, under the hypothesis that the developing countries have a higher fraction of non-optimizing agents, we analyzed the existence of different effects on developed and developing countries. The results show that government spending crowds in the private consumption in the long run and that the effects are larger in developing countries relatively to developed countries.
最近,通过宏观经济模型分析了政府支出对私人消费的影响,其中一小部分代理人平滑他们的跨期消费,而其他人,信贷受限的人,根据其可支配收入进行消费。在这种方法下,我们认为私人消费、政府支出和可支配收入之间存在协整关系,这使我们能够分析政府支出是挤占了私人消费还是挤占了私人消费。我们使用考虑共同因素的面板误差修正模型估计了48个国家的这种关系,并且在发展中国家具有更高比例的非优化代理的假设下,我们分析了发达国家和发展中国家存在的不同影响。研究结果表明,长期来看,政府支出挤占了私人消费,发展中国家的政府支出效应要大于发达国家。
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引用次数: 2
Custo de vida comparativo das regiões metropolitanas brasileiras: 1996-2014 巴西大都市地区生活成本比较:1996-2014
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2016-04-01 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416146128AAA
Alexandre Almeida, C. Azzoni
We compute cost of living levels for 11 Brazilian metropolitan regions in the period 1996-2014. We apply the Country Product Dummy (CPD) method to data from the household expenditure surveys of 1996, 2003 and 2009. We calculate the levels for these years, and use data from regional price indexes to interpolate the results for years in-between. The results indicate that Brasilia, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are the most expensive metropolitan areas, and Goiânia presented the largest growth.
我们计算了1996-2014年期间巴西11个大都市地区的生活成本水平。我们将国家产品虚拟(CPD)方法应用于1996年、2003年和2009年的家庭支出调查数据。我们计算了这些年的水平,并使用区域价格指数的数据来插入中间年份的结果。结果表明,巴西利亚、圣保罗和里约热内卢是生活成本最高的大都市地区,而巴西的增长幅度最大。
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引用次数: 17
期刊
Estudios De Economia
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