Vicente Germán-Soto, Reyna Elizabeth Rodríguez Pérez, Alexandra G. Gallegos Morales
Trade opening in Mexico implied an internal re-location of productive factors, altering the course of the regional convergence. s-convergence theory is addressed to investigate if this process was different among states that are most and less exposed to globalization. The method of regression is a fixed effects panel data estimated through weighted least squares, nested tests, and models with dummies to interregional comparison. After to control by differences in the steady state, results suggest a process of regional convergence along 1940-2015 at annual speeds between 1.2% and 4.6% for the several samples. Advances on education and health stand out as important factors for regional growth. In the open economy stage, the speed of convergence has risen among states that are more exposed to globalization, while it has slowed down for those less exposed; therefore, globalization is related to the regional convergence process.
{"title":"Exposición a la globalización y convergencia regional en México","authors":"Vicente Germán-Soto, Reyna Elizabeth Rodríguez Pérez, Alexandra G. Gallegos Morales","doi":"10.24201/ee.v35i2.404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24201/ee.v35i2.404","url":null,"abstract":"Trade opening in Mexico implied an internal re-location of productive factors, altering the course of the regional convergence. s-convergence theory is addressed to investigate if this process was different among states that are most and less exposed to globalization. The method of regression is a fixed effects panel data estimated through weighted least squares, nested tests, and models with dummies to interregional comparison. After to control by differences in the steady state, results suggest a process of regional convergence along 1940-2015 at annual speeds between 1.2% and 4.6% for the several samples. Advances on education and health stand out as important factors for regional growth. In the open economy stage, the speed of convergence has risen among states that are more exposed to globalization, while it has slowed down for those less exposed; therefore, globalization is related to the regional convergence process.","PeriodicalId":43766,"journal":{"name":"Estudios De Economia","volume":"58 1","pages":"267-295"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87648394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jaime Lara, Marla Cruz Yedra, Diana Victoria Moyeda López, Adriana Prats Molina, J. A. T. Muñoz
This work estimates the impact of rural-urban migration from the period 2010-2015 on informality in metropolitan areas of Mexico. The estimation of ordinary least squares does not establish any effect, while the estimation with instrumental variables finds that exogenous rural urban migration increases informality. Other variables such as unemployment, labour participation and inequality are unaffected, indicating that informal sector allows to absorb changes in labour supply in the short term, albeit with possible negative effects on labour income of substitute workers.
{"title":"Migración rural urbana e informalidad en las zonas metropolitanas de México. Una estimación de corto plazo","authors":"Jaime Lara, Marla Cruz Yedra, Diana Victoria Moyeda López, Adriana Prats Molina, J. A. T. Muñoz","doi":"10.24201/ee.v35i2.405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24201/ee.v35i2.405","url":null,"abstract":"This work estimates the impact of rural-urban migration from the period 2010-2015 on informality in metropolitan areas of Mexico. The estimation of ordinary least squares does not establish any effect, while the estimation with instrumental variables finds that exogenous rural urban migration increases informality. Other variables such as unemployment, labour participation and inequality are unaffected, indicating that informal sector allows to absorb changes in labour supply in the short term, albeit with possible negative effects on labour income of substitute workers.","PeriodicalId":43766,"journal":{"name":"Estudios De Economia","volume":"51 1","pages":"297-329"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86272495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-30DOI: 10.1590/HTTPS://DX.DOI.ORG/10.1590/0101-416150211PGD
P. Duarte
O ano de 2019 marca uma dupla importante efemeride do pensamento economico brasileiro. Trata-se dos 60 anos da tese de livre-docencia do Professor Antonio Delfim Netto, posteriormente publicada em livro de grande impacto, intitulada “O Problema do Cafe no Brasil.” No mesmo ano de 1959, outra importante obra da historiografia economica brasileira era publicada, Formacao Economica do Brasil, de Celso Furtado.
{"title":"Os 60 Anos d’\"O Problema do Café no Brasil\", de Delfim Netto","authors":"P. Duarte","doi":"10.1590/HTTPS://DX.DOI.ORG/10.1590/0101-416150211PGD","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/HTTPS://DX.DOI.ORG/10.1590/0101-416150211PGD","url":null,"abstract":"O ano de 2019 marca uma dupla importante efemeride do pensamento economico brasileiro. Trata-se dos 60 anos da tese de livre-docencia do Professor Antonio Delfim Netto, posteriormente publicada em livro de grande impacto, intitulada “O Problema do Cafe no Brasil.” No mesmo ano de 1959, outra importante obra da historiografia economica brasileira era publicada, Formacao Economica do Brasil, de Celso Furtado.","PeriodicalId":43766,"journal":{"name":"Estudios De Economia","volume":"4 1","pages":"187-192"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90325065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-30DOI: 10.1590/HTTP://DX.DOI.ORG/10.1590/0101-416150211ADF
Antônio Delfim Netto
E com enorme alegria e gratidao que venho a esta ilustre reuniao de economistas, para celebrar um trabalho sexagenario sobre o problema do cafe no Brasil. E dificil entender hoje, quando o valor das exportacoes de cafe representa cerca de 2% do total, e uma variacao de seus precos tem efeito desprezivel sobre nossa capacidade de importar, qual era a importância do problema nos primeiros anos da decada dos sessenta do seculo passado, quando representava mais de 50% e a mesma variacao tinha consequencias dramaticas sobre ela, sobre a nossa taxa de câmbio e sobre o nosso crescimento economico.
{"title":"O problema do café no Brasil","authors":"Antônio Delfim Netto","doi":"10.1590/HTTP://DX.DOI.ORG/10.1590/0101-416150211ADF","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/HTTP://DX.DOI.ORG/10.1590/0101-416150211ADF","url":null,"abstract":"E com enorme alegria e gratidao que venho a esta ilustre reuniao de economistas, para celebrar um trabalho sexagenario sobre o problema do cafe no Brasil. E dificil entender hoje, quando o valor das exportacoes de cafe representa cerca de 2% do total, e uma variacao de seus precos tem efeito desprezivel sobre nossa capacidade de importar, qual era a importância do problema nos primeiros anos da decada dos sessenta do seculo passado, quando representava mais de 50% e a mesma variacao tinha consequencias dramaticas sobre ela, sobre a nossa taxa de câmbio e sobre o nosso crescimento economico.","PeriodicalId":43766,"journal":{"name":"Estudios De Economia","volume":"103 1","pages":"223-225"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82874471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-01DOI: 10.1590/0101-41615024rlm
R. Marcondes
Resumo Discutimos os negócios dos escravos a partir das contas correntes como clientes de uma casa comercial em uma economia voltada para o mercado interno ao final do período escravista, evolvendo débitos e créditos, dinheiro e mercadorias. Os cativos forneceram milho e feijão e compraram um leque amplo de produtos, compreendendo alimentos, vestuário e utensílios. Em quase um terço dos lançamentos eles transacionaram dinheiro, representando a principal despesa debitada aos escravos, inclusive para o pagamento do seu escravista. Essas numerosas transações de valores substantivos dos escravos em pouco mais de um ano demonstram uma capacidade reiterada de manter negócios com a casa comercial. Embora apenas uma pequena parte deles alcançassem condições de acumular pecúlio, somente uma parcela ainda menor conseguiu sonhar com a liberdade.
{"title":"As contas dos escravos numa economia agrária: clientes de uma casa de comercial no interior de Santa Catarina","authors":"R. Marcondes","doi":"10.1590/0101-41615024rlm","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-41615024rlm","url":null,"abstract":"Resumo Discutimos os negócios dos escravos a partir das contas correntes como clientes de uma casa comercial em uma economia voltada para o mercado interno ao final do período escravista, evolvendo débitos e créditos, dinheiro e mercadorias. Os cativos forneceram milho e feijão e compraram um leque amplo de produtos, compreendendo alimentos, vestuário e utensílios. Em quase um terço dos lançamentos eles transacionaram dinheiro, representando a principal despesa debitada aos escravos, inclusive para o pagamento do seu escravista. Essas numerosas transações de valores substantivos dos escravos em pouco mais de um ano demonstram uma capacidade reiterada de manter negócios com a casa comercial. Embora apenas uma pequena parte deles alcançassem condições de acumular pecúlio, somente uma parcela ainda menor conseguiu sonhar com a liberdade.","PeriodicalId":43766,"journal":{"name":"Estudios De Economia","volume":"22 1","pages":"293-319"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73647774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-30DOI: 10.1590/0101-41615011ota
O. A. F. Tourinho, A. Brum
We used a deterministic dynamic applied general equilibrium model with a representative agentto evaluate fiscal policy alternatives for Brazil. The changes in the fiscal mix that mostly increasethe long-run per-capita output (by about 2%) are: the reduction of government consumptionaccompanied by the decrease of the capital income tax rate, and the increase of governmentinvestment financed by the reduction of transfers. The former is also the one the producesthe largest increase in welfare. The public debt consolidation strategies considered used onlyone fiscal instrument and aimed to reduce public debt by 10% in 10 years and its subsequentstabilization. From the point of view of the level of consumption and of the level of capitalstock in the long run, and of the discounted flow of welfare, the best instrument was the taxrate on capital income. From the point of view of output in the long-run, the best instrumentwas government investment, followed by the tax rate on capital income.
{"title":"Políticas Fiscais para Estabilização da Dívida Pública: uma abordagem de equilíbrio geral aplicada ao Brasil","authors":"O. A. F. Tourinho, A. Brum","doi":"10.1590/0101-41615011ota","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-41615011ota","url":null,"abstract":"We used a deterministic dynamic applied general equilibrium model with a representative agentto evaluate fiscal policy alternatives for Brazil. The changes in the fiscal mix that mostly increasethe long-run per-capita output (by about 2%) are: the reduction of government consumptionaccompanied by the decrease of the capital income tax rate, and the increase of governmentinvestment financed by the reduction of transfers. The former is also the one the producesthe largest increase in welfare. The public debt consolidation strategies considered used onlyone fiscal instrument and aimed to reduce public debt by 10% in 10 years and its subsequentstabilization. From the point of view of the level of consumption and of the level of capitalstock in the long run, and of the discounted flow of welfare, the best instrument was the taxrate on capital income. From the point of view of output in the long-run, the best instrumentwas government investment, followed by the tax rate on capital income.","PeriodicalId":43766,"journal":{"name":"Estudios De Economia","volume":"53 1","pages":"5-42"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84698693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
B. Armenta, Diane Flaherty, Bill Gibson, Jorge Salazar-Carrillo
espanolSe presenta un modelo dinamico de equilibrio general computable compacto para el estado de Tabasco, Mexico, calibrado a una matriz de contabilidad social del ano 2003, agregada en cuatro sectores. Hay dos simulaciones, la reforma, que estudia el impacto de la reciente reforma energetica con un mayor ingreso de la produccion petrolera retenido e invertido en el sector educacional, la segunda, aguas profundas, invierte en tecnologias petroleras avanzadas.La reforma resulta en mayor produccion, empleo, igualdad y menor pobreza y aguas profundas genera mas empleo calificado y podria atraer mucho mayores recursos nacionales e internacionales a la region. EnglishThis paper presents a compact, dynamic computable general equilibrium model for the state of Tabasco, Mexico, calibrated to asocial accounting matrix for 2003. Two simulations are presented: la reforma studies the impact of the recent energy reform in Mexico with more income from the petroleum production retained and invested in the educational sector. A second simulation, aguas profundas, invests in advanced petroleum technology. La reforma results in greater production, employment, equality and less poverty while aguas profundas generates more skilled employment and attracts more resources, national and international, to the region.
{"title":"Efecto regional de la reforma energética en México: un modelo de equilibrio general computable regional","authors":"B. Armenta, Diane Flaherty, Bill Gibson, Jorge Salazar-Carrillo","doi":"10.24201/ee.v35i1.398","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24201/ee.v35i1.398","url":null,"abstract":"espanolSe presenta un modelo dinamico de equilibrio general computable compacto para el estado de Tabasco, Mexico, calibrado a una matriz de contabilidad social del ano 2003, agregada en cuatro sectores. Hay dos simulaciones, la reforma, que estudia el impacto de la reciente reforma energetica con un mayor ingreso de la produccion petrolera retenido e invertido en el sector educacional, la segunda, aguas profundas, invierte en tecnologias petroleras avanzadas.La reforma resulta en mayor produccion, empleo, igualdad y menor pobreza y aguas profundas genera mas empleo calificado y podria atraer mucho mayores recursos nacionales e internacionales a la region. EnglishThis paper presents a compact, dynamic computable general equilibrium model for the state of Tabasco, Mexico, calibrated to asocial accounting matrix for 2003. Two simulations are presented: la reforma studies the impact of the recent energy reform in Mexico with more income from the petroleum production retained and invested in the educational sector. A second simulation, aguas profundas, invests in advanced petroleum technology. La reforma results in greater production, employment, equality and less poverty while aguas profundas generates more skilled employment and attracts more resources, national and international, to the region.","PeriodicalId":43766,"journal":{"name":"Estudios De Economia","volume":"55 1","pages":"71-123"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85926946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Eva Yamila da Silva Catela, Francis C. Petterini, Néstor Bercovich
espanolSe analiza el efecto de la politica de subsidios a la innovacion de dos instituciones argentinas,FONTAR y SEPYME, en una muestra de pequenas y medianas empresas industriales, durante el periodo 2010-2012. Se considera el efecto de la superposicion de tratamientos de FONTAR y SEPYME utilizando la metodologia de propensity scorematching. Se encuentra evidencia de adicionalidad al evaluar los impactos individuales de los programas. Sin embargo, no se encuentra evidencia de adicionalidad ni tampoco de crowding out cuando es considerado el efecto superpuesto. Por ultimo, las acciones de FONTAR parecen ser mas eficaces que las de SEPYME. EnglishThe paper analyses the effect of the subsidies policy for innovation of two Argentine institutions, FONTAR and SEPYME, in a sample of smalland medium-sized industrial companies, during the period 2010-2012. The effect of the superposition of FONTAR and SEPYME treatments is considered using the methodology of propensity score matching. Evidence of additionally is found when evaluating the individual impacts of the programs. However, no evidence of additionally or crowding out is found when the superimposed effect is considered. Finally, FONTAR’s actions seem to be more effective than those of SEPYME.
{"title":"Impactos de programas públicos superpuestos para promover actividades innovativas en empresas de Argentina","authors":"Eva Yamila da Silva Catela, Francis C. Petterini, Néstor Bercovich","doi":"10.24201/ee.v35i1.396","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24201/ee.v35i1.396","url":null,"abstract":"espanolSe analiza el efecto de la politica de subsidios a la innovacion de dos instituciones argentinas,FONTAR y SEPYME, en una muestra de pequenas y medianas empresas industriales, durante el periodo 2010-2012. Se considera el efecto de la superposicion de tratamientos de FONTAR y SEPYME utilizando la metodologia de propensity scorematching. Se encuentra evidencia de adicionalidad al evaluar los impactos individuales de los programas. Sin embargo, no se encuentra evidencia de adicionalidad ni tampoco de crowding out cuando es considerado el efecto superpuesto. Por ultimo, las acciones de FONTAR parecen ser mas eficaces que las de SEPYME. EnglishThe paper analyses the effect of the subsidies policy for innovation of two Argentine institutions, FONTAR and SEPYME, in a sample of smalland medium-sized industrial companies, during the period 2010-2012. The effect of the superposition of FONTAR and SEPYME treatments is considered using the methodology of propensity score matching. Evidence of additionally is found when evaluating the individual impacts of the programs. However, no evidence of additionally or crowding out is found when the superimposed effect is considered. Finally, FONTAR’s actions seem to be more effective than those of SEPYME.","PeriodicalId":43766,"journal":{"name":"Estudios De Economia","volume":"85 1","pages":"3-35"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80864858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Raymundo M. Campos Vázquez, E B Sergio López-Araiza
espanolUtilizamos datos de busquedas en Google sobre empleo para pronosticar la tasa de desempleo en Mexico. Discutimos la bibliografia relacionada con nowcasting y big data donde se utilizan datos generados en internet para predecir desempleo. Ademas, explicamos algoritmos de aprendizaje que sirven para escoger el mejor modelo de prediccion. Finalmente, se aplican estos algoritmos para encontrar el modelo que mejor prediga la tasa de desempleo en Mexico. En terminos de politicas publicas, creemos que los datos generados a traves de internet y los nuevos metodos estadisticos son claves para mejorar el diseno y la pertinencia de las intervenciones. EnglishWe use Google Trends data for employment opportunities related reply in order to forecast the unemployment rate in Mexico. We begin by discussing the literature related to big data and nowcasting in which user generated data is used to forecast unemployment. Afterwards, we explain the basics of several machine learning algorithms. Finally, we implement such algorithms in order to find the best model to predict unemployment using both Google Trends queries and unemployment lags. From a public policy perspective, we believe that both user generated data and new statistical methods may provide great tools for the design of policy interventions.
{"title":"Grandes datos, Google y desempleo","authors":"Raymundo M. Campos Vázquez, E B Sergio López-Araiza","doi":"10.24201/ee.v35i1.399","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24201/ee.v35i1.399","url":null,"abstract":"espanolUtilizamos datos de busquedas en Google sobre empleo para pronosticar la tasa de desempleo en Mexico. Discutimos la bibliografia relacionada con nowcasting y big data donde se utilizan datos generados en internet para predecir desempleo. Ademas, explicamos algoritmos de aprendizaje que sirven para escoger el mejor modelo de prediccion. Finalmente, se aplican estos algoritmos para encontrar el modelo que mejor prediga la tasa de desempleo en Mexico. En terminos de politicas publicas, creemos que los datos generados a traves de internet y los nuevos metodos estadisticos son claves para mejorar el diseno y la pertinencia de las intervenciones. EnglishWe use Google Trends data for employment opportunities related reply in order to forecast the unemployment rate in Mexico. We begin by discussing the literature related to big data and nowcasting in which user generated data is used to forecast unemployment. Afterwards, we explain the basics of several machine learning algorithms. Finally, we implement such algorithms in order to find the best model to predict unemployment using both Google Trends queries and unemployment lags. From a public policy perspective, we believe that both user generated data and new statistical methods may provide great tools for the design of policy interventions.","PeriodicalId":43766,"journal":{"name":"Estudios De Economia","volume":"397 1","pages":"125-151"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79472005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：