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A Sustentabilidade do Endividamento Externo Brasileiro no Período 1963-72: uma análise empírica 1963-72年巴西外债的可持续性:实证分析
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-05-30 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416147253EFB
Eduardo F. Bastian
O presente artigo analisa o grau de vulnerabilidade externa a que estava sujeita a economia brasileira no inicio do governo presidencialista de Joao Goulart (1963-64). Para tanto, utiliza-se um modelo simples que permite avaliar o grau de solvencia externa de um pais ao longo do tempo a partir de projecoes para o indicador passivo externo liquido sobre exportacoes de bens e servicos. As projecoes para o periodo 1963-72 sinalizam que o pais estava em uma situacao de vulnerabilidade externa naquele momento, mas que esta condicao poderia ser contornada atraves de uma taxa adequada de crescimento das exportacoes de bens e servicos. Estas projecoes sao contrastadas com o comportamento efetivo da economia brasileira no periodo 1963-72. Observa-se que o forte crescimento das exportacoes de bens e servicos neste periodo reduziu o grau de vulnerabilidade externa do pais, mas que, ainda assim, evidencias de vulnerabilidade externa persistiam.
本文分析了若昂·古拉特(Joao Goulart)总统政府执政初期(1963-64年)巴西经济受到外部脆弱性的程度。为此,我们使用了一个简单的模型,该模型允许评估一个国家在一段时间内的外部偿付能力程度,从项目到商品和服务出口的净外部负债指标。1963-72年期间的预测表明,该国当时处于外部脆弱性的情况,但这种情况可以通过适当的货物和服务出口增长率来克服。这些预测与1963-72年期间巴西经济的实际表现形成对比。值得注意的是,这一时期商品和服务出口的强劲增长降低了该国外部脆弱性的程度,但外部脆弱性的证据仍然存在。
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引用次数: 0
O fluxo de capital para as economias emergentes e o grau de desenvolvimento do sistema financeiro 资本流向新兴经济体和金融体系的发展程度
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-05-30 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416147212KAM
K. Rocha, A. Moreira, M. D. Silveira
The objective of this is study is to assert the role of domestic financial system as mitigating of sudden stops episodes and driver of capital flows in a group of 14 emerging economies in the period of 1999-2013, especially in face of unfavorable external environment such as high international interest rate or global risk aversion. The countries analyzed – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey and Ukraine, represented in August 2014 roughly 80% of the EMBIPLUS and 60% of EMBIGLOBAL. We work with distinct types of capital flows: Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment, Inflow of Portfolio and Net Capital, and conduct robustness check considering data since 1990 and increasing the number of emerging countries. The result supports evidence that improvement of domestic financial system allows an increase of capital flow and a decrease of sudden stops probability. Estimates also indicate that domestic fundamentals are as important as global factors in explaining capital flows and sudden stops episodes. This fact supports public policies that improve the development and strength of domestic financial system in emerging economies and stress the government role in attracting external capital.
本研究的目的是断言国内金融体系在1999-2013年期间缓解14个新兴经济体突然停止事件和资本流动驱动因素的作用,特别是面对不利的外部环境,如高国际利率或全球风险厌恶。所分析的国家包括阿根廷、巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、墨西哥、秘鲁、菲律宾、俄罗斯、南非、泰国、土耳其和乌克兰,这些国家在2014年8月大约占EMBIPLUS的80%和embigglobal的60%。我们研究不同类型的资本流动:外国直接投资流入、证券投资流入和净资本流入,并考虑1990年以来的数据和新兴国家数量的增加,进行稳健性检查。这一结果支持了国内金融体系的完善可以增加资本流动和降低突然停止概率的证据。估计数据还表明,在解释资本流动和突然停止事件方面,国内基本面与全球因素同样重要。这一事实支持提高新兴经济体国内金融体系发展和实力的公共政策,并强调政府在吸引外部资本方面的作用。
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引用次数: 2
Ignácio Rangel, a correção monetária e o PAEG: recontando a história 伊格纳西奥·兰格尔,货币修正和PAEG:重述历史
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-05-30 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416147273FSDP
Fabian Scholze Domingues, P. Fonseca
The introduction of indexed government bonds and the monetary correction are usually attributed to the PAEG period of Brazilian economic policy history. In contrast with this historical memory, this paper aims at revisiting the fact that both were part of Ignacio Rangel’s proposal, which was rejected by the National Congress during Goulart term. Thus, the research is based on primary sources such as the legislative debates and interviews, in order to show Rangel’s pioneering role in regard to these important institutional measures that would impact Brazilian economy in the following decades.
指数政府债券的引入和货币调整通常被归因于巴西经济政策历史上的PAEG时期。与这一历史记忆相反,本文旨在重新审视这一事实,即两者都是伊格纳西奥·兰格尔提案的一部分,该提案在古拉特任期内被国民议会否决。因此,该研究基于诸如立法辩论和访谈等主要来源,以显示兰格尔在这些重要的制度措施方面的先锋作用,这些措施将在接下来的几十年里影响巴西经济。
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引用次数: 1
Crescimento econômico e pressão sobre recursos hídricos 经济增长和水资源压力
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-05-30 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416147243ASM
Arno Paulo Schmitz, M. V. L. Bittencourt
This paper aimed, through an inter-regional input-output matrix (estimated for 2004) in an ecological-economic model, simulate three scenarios of future demand (for 2020) for the use of water resources in river basins Piracicaba-Capivari-Jundiai (PCJ), Paraiba do Sul (PBS), Alto Tiete (AT) and Sorocaba and Mid Tiete (SMT). These simulations are based on the hypothetical expectations of changes in the final demand of goods in the economy, resulting in a comparison between estimates results of demand for water with the hypothetical water availability. The growing shortage of water resources motivates studies on analysis of the demand, especially with a view to proposing sparing strategies. The simulation results showed water amounts that depict important water shortage in AT and SMT basins, which is a problem that has been around for a few decades and can become even worse. In addition, water shortage was identified in the PCJ basin mainly due to water transpositions to other river basins, especially AT covering the entire metropolitan region of Sao Paulo.
本文旨在通过一个生态经济模型中的区域间投入产出矩阵(估计为2004年),模拟piracicaba - capivarii - jundiai (PCJ)、Paraiba do Sul (PBS)、Alto Tiete (AT)和Sorocaba and Mid Tiete (SMT)流域未来(2020年)水资源利用需求的三种情景。这些模拟是基于对经济中商品最终需求变化的假设预期,从而将水需求的估计结果与假设的水可用性进行比较。水资源的日益短缺促使人们对水资源需求进行分析,特别是提出节约策略。模拟结果显示的水量反映了AT和SMT流域的严重缺水,这是一个已经存在了几十年的问题,而且可能会变得更糟。此外,PCJ流域的缺水主要是由于水向其他流域的转移,特别是覆盖整个圣保罗大都市区的AT流域。
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引用次数: 1
A progressividade do imposto de renda da pessoa física no Brasil 巴西个人所得税的累进性
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-05-30 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416147222FCM
F. Castro, M. Bugarin
O presente trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar a progressividade do Imposto de Renda da Pessoa Fisica no Brasil, no periodo de 2006 a 2012, utilizando numeros indices que permitem sua comparacao com outros paises. Dentre as medidas de progressividade efetiva ou global, foram calculados os indices de desvio da proporcionalidade de Kakwani e Suits, alem dos indices de capacidade redistributiva de Reynolds-Smolensky, Musgrave-Thin e Pfahler. Mostra-se que o tributo brasileiro apresenta indices de progressividade bastante altos em comparacao a paises da America Latina e paises desenvolvidos. Entretanto, sua capacidade redistributiva e limitada pela baixa representatividade da arrecadacao do imposto em relacao a renda bruta total do pais, problema semelhante a muitos paises com renda per capita similar a do Brasil. Efetuou-se tambem a decomposicao da progressividade da estrutura do imposto, verificando-se que, no caso brasileiro, o efeito aliquota e responsavel por toda a progressividade, enquanto o efeito base e proporcional.
本研究旨在评估巴西个人所得税的累进性,从2006年到2012年,使用数字指数,使其与其他国家进行比较。除了Reynolds-Smolensky、Musgrave-Thin和Pfahler的再分配能力指数外,还计算了Kakwani和Suits的比例偏差指数。结果表明,与拉丁美洲和发达国家相比,巴西的税收具有较高的累进指数。然而,它的再分配能力受到税收相对于国家总收入的低代表性的限制,这一问题与许多人均收入与巴西相似的国家类似。还对税收结构的累进性进行了分解,发现在巴西的案例中,分配效应对所有累进性负责,而基础效应和比例效应。
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引用次数: 5
Avaliação sistêmica do setor industrial brasileiro: 1995-2009 巴西工业部门的系统评估:1995-2009年
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-03-07 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416147151FSJ
F. S. Perobelli, S. Bastos, Juliana Carreiro de Oliveira
This article aims to evaluate the industrial sector in a different perspective from the common view used when we analyze industrialization/deindustrialization. The goal is to analyze the systemic character of the industrial sector from the input-output method using indicators of direct intensity and indirect plus direct intensity of industry. By this measure, you can make clearer the article contribution, ie, provide a productive integration measure in the industrial sector with other sectors in order to check whether the industry has gained importance as a articulator sector of productive activities.
本文旨在从不同于我们分析工业化/去工业化时使用的常见观点的角度来评估工业部门。目的是利用工业的直接强度和间接加直接强度指标,从投入产出法分析工业部门的系统性特征。通过这一措施,你可以使文章的贡献更清晰,即,提供一个生产整合措施,在工业部门与其他部门,以检查行业是否已经获得了重要的生产活动的衔接部门。
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引用次数: 2
Heterogeneity of demand and product innovation 需求异质性与产品创新
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-03-07 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416147115TRM
T. Caliari, M. T. Valente, R. Ruiz
Este paper discute o relacionamento entre a heterogeneidade da demanda em relacao a criterios de escolha e a inovacao de produto. E proposto um modelo evolucionario que apresenta como consumidores com informacao imperfeita escolhem e selecionam bens diferenciados. O modelo conecta a informacao e os criterios de escolha e sua relacao com o processo inovativo das empresas. Como resultados, pode-se verificar que o preco apresenta uma importante funcao, mas a qualidade da informacao, os erros de tolerância dos agentes e criterios para ordenacao de preferencia sao importantes determinantes do desempenho das firmas em uma industria com inovacao de produtos.
本文讨论了与选择标准相关的需求异质性与产品创新之间的关系。提出了一个演化模型,该模型显示了信息不完美的消费者如何选择和选择不同的商品。该模型将信息和选择标准及其与企业创新过程的关系联系起来。结果表明,价格具有重要的作用,但信息质量、代理容许误差和偏好排序标准是产品创新行业企业绩效的重要决定因素。
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引用次数: 5
Post-2008 Brazilian fiscal policy: an interpretation through the analysis of fiscal multipliers 2008年后巴西财政政策:基于财政乘数分析的解读
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-03-07 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416147149CAA
Celso Júnior, Alejandro C. García Cintado, Armando Vaz Sampaio
The global crisis that erupted in 2007 led many countries to embark on countercyclical fiscal policies as a way to cushion the blow of a depressed aggregate demand. Advocates of discretionary measures emphasize that fiscal policy can indeed stimulate the economy. The main goal of this work is to assess whether the fiscal policies pursued by the Brazilian government in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, succeeded in bringing the economy back on track in a sustainable fashion. To this end, the fiscal multipliers of five different shocks are studied in a small open-economy New Keynesian framework. Our results point to the government spending and public investment as the most effective fiscal tools for combating the crisis. However, the highest fiscal multiplier turned out to be the one associated with excise tax reductions.
2007年爆发的全球危机导致许多国家开始实施反周期财政政策,以缓解总需求低迷带来的冲击。自由裁量措施的支持者强调,财政政策确实可以刺激经济。本研究的主要目标是评估巴西政府在2008年金融危机后推行的财政政策是否成功地将经济以可持续的方式带回了正轨。为此,我们在一个小型开放经济的新凯恩斯主义框架中研究了五种不同冲击的财政乘数。我们的研究结果表明,政府支出和公共投资是应对危机最有效的财政工具。然而,最高的财政乘数是与消费税削减相关的乘数。
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引用次数: 7
NAIRU, inflação e curva de phillips no Brasil: novas evidências a partir de um modelo tempo-variante 巴西的NAIRU通货膨胀和菲利普斯曲线:来自时间变模型的新证据
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-03-07 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416147123APD
Andreza Aparecida Palma, Diego Ferreira
O objetivo do presente trabalho e estimar a NAIRU ( non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment ) para o Brasil utilizando um modelo bivariado de componentes nao observados conforme proposto por Chan, Koop e Potter (2015), que diferencia-se da literatura existente por considerar passeios aleatorios restritos para as variaveis nao-observadas. As variaveis latentes do modelo sao a NAIRU, a tendencia inflacionaria, persistencia da inflacao e inclinacao da Curva de Phillips. Os resultados obtidos apontam para uma tendencia de queda da NAIRU, que tem sido revertida no periodo recente. Alem disso, o hiato do desemprego foi predominantemente positivo ate 2010, fato consistente com a diminuicao da inflacao e tem sido predominantemente negativo no periodo recente, o que implica em aumento da inflacao. Tal comportamento e consistente com a trajetoria observada da inflacao no periodo. Dessa forma, o presente trabalho contribui com a literatura empirica a respeito da NAIRU no Brasil, fornecendo novas estimativas para o periodo recente, o que pode vir a aumentar o grau de confiabilidade das estimativas fornecidas.
这个工作的目标和评估中(非-accelerating失业)去巴西的通货膨胀率使用bivariado模型组件不被监控的陈,库普和波特(2015)提出,不同的文献认为人行道上不-observadas aleatorios限制。模型的潜在变量是NAIRU、通货膨胀趋势、通货膨胀持久性和菲利普斯曲线的斜率。结果表明,NAIRU有下降的趋势,这一趋势在最近一段时间有所逆转。此外,在2010年之前,失业率差距主要是正的,这与通货膨胀的下降是一致的,而最近一段时间主要是负的,这意味着通货膨胀的增加。这种行为与这一时期观察到的通胀轨迹是一致的。因此,这项工作有助于巴西关于NAIRU的实证文献,为最近的时期提供了新的估计,这可能会增加所提供的估计的可靠性。
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引用次数: 1
O EFEITO DAS EXPORTAÇÕES NO CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO DAS MICRORREGIÕES BRASILEIRAS: UMA ANÁLISE ESPACIAL COM DADOS EM PAINEL 出口对巴西微观区域经济增长的影响:面板数据的空间分析
IF 0.6 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-03-07 DOI: 10.1590/0101-416147161AAA
Alex Sander Souza do Carmo, A. P. Raiher, A. Stege
The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of exports on the economic growth of Brazilian micro-regions, during the period 2000-2010, in the light of Feder model (1982). According to Feder model, exports increases economic growth because of productivity difference existing between the export sector and the non-exporter sector and because of the positive externality generated by the export sector on the non-export sector. Estimating the empirical model by the technique of spatial panel data, with fixed effect, the assumptions of the Feder model were confirmed, showing that exports have indirect effects on economic growth of the Brazilians micro-regions.
本研究的目的是根据费德模型(1982),分析2000-2010年期间出口对巴西微观地区经济增长的影响。根据费德模型,出口促进经济增长是因为出口部门和非出口部门之间存在生产率差异,以及出口部门对非出口部门产生的正外部性。利用空间面板数据技术对实证模型进行估计,在固定效应下,验证了Feder模型的假设,表明出口对巴西微观区域的经济增长具有间接影响。
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引用次数: 9
期刊
Estudios De Economia
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