Abstract This study examines the liquidity dynamics of banks in emerging market economies. Using annual data of 91 commercial banks from 11 countries, the study established that banks in emerging markets have target liquidity ratios they pursue and partially adjust due to market frictions. Overall, risk aversion and prudence play a significant role in explaining the liquidity dynamics by banks in emerging market economies.
{"title":"Liquidity Dynamics of Banks in Emerging Market Economies","authors":"T. Mashamba","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0008","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study examines the liquidity dynamics of banks in emerging market economies. Using annual data of 91 commercial banks from 11 countries, the study established that banks in emerging markets have target liquidity ratios they pursue and partially adjust due to market frictions. Overall, risk aversion and prudence play a significant role in explaining the liquidity dynamics by banks in emerging market economies.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44161803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract While all EU Member States can join the group's monetary union, the euro area, some members are far more ready for the adoption and use of the single European currency. Here, we construct a new Monetary Union Readiness Index (MURI) for the EU Member States. The theoretical framework of the index is built on the economic theory of Optimal Currency Areas and EU regulations such as the Treaty and the Maastricht criteria, and the Regulation on the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. The index measures (i) nominal convergence, (ii) real convergence, and (iii) macroeconomic stability. The MURI Index provides an easy to use real-time policy tool to evaluate both candidate and current euro area members. Hence, it complements, aggregates and communicates key information in annual convergence reports and in official statistics. Our evaluation finds that Austria, Finland, Denmark, Sweden and Germany showed the highest level of compliance with the different euro area criteria in 2018, while Greece, Cyprus, Romania, Spain, and Italy were the least compliant.
{"title":"Ready or not? Constructing the Monetary Union Readiness Index","authors":"Szilárd Erhart","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0002","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract While all EU Member States can join the group's monetary union, the euro area, some members are far more ready for the adoption and use of the single European currency. Here, we construct a new Monetary Union Readiness Index (MURI) for the EU Member States. The theoretical framework of the index is built on the economic theory of Optimal Currency Areas and EU regulations such as the Treaty and the Maastricht criteria, and the Regulation on the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. The index measures (i) nominal convergence, (ii) real convergence, and (iii) macroeconomic stability. The MURI Index provides an easy to use real-time policy tool to evaluate both candidate and current euro area members. Hence, it complements, aggregates and communicates key information in annual convergence reports and in official statistics. Our evaluation finds that Austria, Finland, Denmark, Sweden and Germany showed the highest level of compliance with the different euro area criteria in 2018, while Greece, Cyprus, Romania, Spain, and Italy were the least compliant.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138537532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper seeks to empirically explore how an international financial integration influences a country’s GDP growth. The long run relationship is tested by PMG estimator for the sample of ten EU countries from Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CEE-10 countries) between 1995 and 2017. Prior to the conducting of dynamic panel analysis based on PMG estimators, several panel unit root tests were conducted, as well as panel co integration tests. The findings offer mixed impact financial integration on growth. Among the measures of financial integration, growth of the CEE-10 countries is mostly driven in the long run by FDI inflows as well as remittances and financial openness. On the contrary, the study suggests a reversal relationship between growth and financial integration measured by Gross Foreign Assets and Liabilities in percentages of GDP. It might be explained with a fact that CEE-10 countries have not yet reached a certain level of financial development in order to benefit from financial integration. The study concludes that international financial integration does not per se enhance economic growth and country’s growth in the CEE-10 countries can be reached at a higher level of financial integration, further increase their financial openness and financial development.
{"title":"How Does International Financial Integration Really Affect Post-Transition Countries' Growth? Empirical evidence from the CEE-10 countries","authors":"M. Ganić, M. Hrnjic","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0027","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper seeks to empirically explore how an international financial integration influences a country’s GDP growth. The long run relationship is tested by PMG estimator for the sample of ten EU countries from Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CEE-10 countries) between 1995 and 2017. Prior to the conducting of dynamic panel analysis based on PMG estimators, several panel unit root tests were conducted, as well as panel co integration tests. The findings offer mixed impact financial integration on growth. Among the measures of financial integration, growth of the CEE-10 countries is mostly driven in the long run by FDI inflows as well as remittances and financial openness. On the contrary, the study suggests a reversal relationship between growth and financial integration measured by Gross Foreign Assets and Liabilities in percentages of GDP. It might be explained with a fact that CEE-10 countries have not yet reached a certain level of financial development in order to benefit from financial integration. The study concludes that international financial integration does not per se enhance economic growth and country’s growth in the CEE-10 countries can be reached at a higher level of financial integration, further increase their financial openness and financial development.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42813414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Artificial intelligence and machine learning have increasing influence on the financial sector, but also on economy as a whole. The impact of artificial intelligence and machine learning on banking risk management has become particularly interesting after the global financial crisis. The research focus is on artificial intelligence and machine learning potential for further banking risk management improvement. The paper seeks to explore the possibility for successful implementation yet taking into account challenges and problems which might occur as well as potential solutions. Artificial intelligence and machine learning have potential to support the mitigation measures for the contemporary global economic and financial challenges, including those caused by the COVID-19 crisis. The main focus in this paper is on credit risk management, but also on analysing artificial intelligence and machine learning application in other risk management areas. It is concluded that a measured and well-prepared further application of artificial intelligence, machine learning, deep learning and big data analytics can have further positive impact, especially on the following risk management areas: credit, market, liquidity, operational risk, and other related areas.
{"title":"Prospects of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Application in Banking Risk Management","authors":"N. Milojević, S. Redzepagić","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Artificial intelligence and machine learning have increasing influence on the financial sector, but also on economy as a whole. The impact of artificial intelligence and machine learning on banking risk management has become particularly interesting after the global financial crisis. The research focus is on artificial intelligence and machine learning potential for further banking risk management improvement. The paper seeks to explore the possibility for successful implementation yet taking into account challenges and problems which might occur as well as potential solutions. Artificial intelligence and machine learning have potential to support the mitigation measures for the contemporary global economic and financial challenges, including those caused by the COVID-19 crisis. The main focus in this paper is on credit risk management, but also on analysing artificial intelligence and machine learning application in other risk management areas. It is concluded that a measured and well-prepared further application of artificial intelligence, machine learning, deep learning and big data analytics can have further positive impact, especially on the following risk management areas: credit, market, liquidity, operational risk, and other related areas.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43154231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper deals with the neglected issue of central banks’ social responsibility. Since central banks exert the “structural power” on economies as well as on societies, their power should be regulated and controlled by society through a reliable framework of social responsibility. To that aim, this article sheds light on the ‘why’ and the ‘how’ of central bank’s social responsibility: I suggest reforms in order to increase central banks’ social legitimacy, while being consistent with the mapping out of a new framework of social responsibility.
{"title":"Great Power, Great Responsibility: Addressing the Underestimated Issue of Central Bank’s Social Responsibility","authors":"G. Vallet","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper deals with the neglected issue of central banks’ social responsibility. Since central banks exert the “structural power” on economies as well as on societies, their power should be regulated and controlled by society through a reliable framework of social responsibility. To that aim, this article sheds light on the ‘why’ and the ‘how’ of central bank’s social responsibility: I suggest reforms in order to increase central banks’ social legitimacy, while being consistent with the mapping out of a new framework of social responsibility.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48606668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper aims to analyse the dynamics of foreign exchange markets in a country facing political uncertainty that prompt capital outflow from the country1. The economic environment under investigation is characterized by dual foreign exchange markets: a formal or official market for foreign exchange with insufficient and volatile foreign exchange flows, and a strong and thriving informal market, with a higher exchange rate2. The findings in the paper indicate a necessary condition for stabilization of the exchange rate system and that is that the return on investment should exceed the depreciation rate of domestic currency in the formal foreign exchange market. This condition implies that the return on investment should at least compensate investors for the opportunity cost of holding domestic money in their private portfolio wealth. Our findings also indicate that stability of the foreign exchange rates is more difficult to achieve under insufficient official reserves as the recovery process from a shock becomes more costly in terms of time period needed for the adjustment process to complete. The dynamic path of the foreign exchange premium shows that under massive capital outflow caused by economic sanctions, the informal market exchange rate overshoots the equilibrium stationary exchange rate, and the size of such overshooting depends on the size of available foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank.
{"title":"The impact of a political shock on foreign exchange markets in a small and open economy: A dynamic modelling approach","authors":"I. Onour, B. Sergi","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0028","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper aims to analyse the dynamics of foreign exchange markets in a country facing political uncertainty that prompt capital outflow from the country1. The economic environment under investigation is characterized by dual foreign exchange markets: a formal or official market for foreign exchange with insufficient and volatile foreign exchange flows, and a strong and thriving informal market, with a higher exchange rate2. The findings in the paper indicate a necessary condition for stabilization of the exchange rate system and that is that the return on investment should exceed the depreciation rate of domestic currency in the formal foreign exchange market. This condition implies that the return on investment should at least compensate investors for the opportunity cost of holding domestic money in their private portfolio wealth. Our findings also indicate that stability of the foreign exchange rates is more difficult to achieve under insufficient official reserves as the recovery process from a shock becomes more costly in terms of time period needed for the adjustment process to complete. The dynamic path of the foreign exchange premium shows that under massive capital outflow caused by economic sanctions, the informal market exchange rate overshoots the equilibrium stationary exchange rate, and the size of such overshooting depends on the size of available foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43716874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Generally, one of the important issues related to currency crises is the output losses caused by these phenomena. In this study, determinants of output losses and particularly the role of the central bank will be evaluated during currency crises. Moreover, the paper tries to investigate the roles of macroeconomic variables and also monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies on the output losses during currency crises. In this regard, an econometric model with panel data has been used for emerging market countries during 1980-2016. The results show that currency crises accruing have a positive and significant effect on output losses. While the successful defence of central bank has had the negative effects on the output losses, but it is positive for the unsuccessful defence and the non-intervention or immediate depreciation. However, the role of the macroeconomic condition is important where total foreign reserves can be considered as a buffer against the output losses, while inflation and deviation of the real exchange rate from its trend have had positive effects on the output losses. Finally, the output losses can be reduced by an active monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies.
{"title":"Output Losses from Currency Crises and the Role of Central Bank","authors":"M. Yazdani, M. Nikzad","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0025","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Generally, one of the important issues related to currency crises is the output losses caused by these phenomena. In this study, determinants of output losses and particularly the role of the central bank will be evaluated during currency crises. Moreover, the paper tries to investigate the roles of macroeconomic variables and also monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies on the output losses during currency crises. In this regard, an econometric model with panel data has been used for emerging market countries during 1980-2016. The results show that currency crises accruing have a positive and significant effect on output losses. While the successful defence of central bank has had the negative effects on the output losses, but it is positive for the unsuccessful defence and the non-intervention or immediate depreciation. However, the role of the macroeconomic condition is important where total foreign reserves can be considered as a buffer against the output losses, while inflation and deviation of the real exchange rate from its trend have had positive effects on the output losses. Finally, the output losses can be reduced by an active monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49503732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Amila Žunić, Kemal Kozaric, Emina Žunić Dželihodžić
Abstract The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of the movement of non-performing loans in the banking sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on them. For this purpose, secondary data from the banking sector of BiH were used, over which a multi-regression analysis was performed. The variables non-performing loans, GDP, loan loss provision, and dummy variable COVID-19 were used in the analysis. The results of the analysis showed a significant influence of all three mentioned variables. The existence of a significant positive link between non-performing loans and the state of the country's economy has been proven. In addition to the above, it has been proven that the variable COVID-19 has a delayed effect on NPLs, due to the current application of the moratorium on loans.
{"title":"Non-Performing Loan Determinants and Impact of COVID-19: Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina","authors":"Amila Žunić, Kemal Kozaric, Emina Žunić Dželihodžić","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0021","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of the movement of non-performing loans in the banking sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on them. For this purpose, secondary data from the banking sector of BiH were used, over which a multi-regression analysis was performed. The variables non-performing loans, GDP, loan loss provision, and dummy variable COVID-19 were used in the analysis. The results of the analysis showed a significant influence of all three mentioned variables. The existence of a significant positive link between non-performing loans and the state of the country's economy has been proven. In addition to the above, it has been proven that the variable COVID-19 has a delayed effect on NPLs, due to the current application of the moratorium on loans.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45852149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Technological developments have always led to changes in all aspects of our lives. Crypto currency is one of those changes. As a result of those changes, thousands of currencies such as bitcoin, ripple, litecoin and ethereum have evolved and have found a use in business. The present study focuses upon Ripple and tries to explain its effects on banks and business theoretically. It has been stated that the money transfer performed through Ripple is faster and more economical when compared to present systems. Additionally, it has been realised that the present SWIFT system has been influenced by that speed and economy, and therefore taken considerable technologic steps with an effort to improve its system.
{"title":"The Evaluation of Block Chain Technology within the Scope of Ripple and Banking Activities","authors":"Erdogan Kaygin, Yunus Zengi̇n, Ethem Topcuoglu, Serdal Ozkes","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0029","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Technological developments have always led to changes in all aspects of our lives. Crypto currency is one of those changes. As a result of those changes, thousands of currencies such as bitcoin, ripple, litecoin and ethereum have evolved and have found a use in business. The present study focuses upon Ripple and tries to explain its effects on banks and business theoretically. It has been stated that the money transfer performed through Ripple is faster and more economical when compared to present systems. Additionally, it has been realised that the present SWIFT system has been influenced by that speed and economy, and therefore taken considerable technologic steps with an effort to improve its system.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44158198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Despite the significant academic interest in the economic cohesion, the various aspects of convergence and the ways they can be measured still remain theoretically unclear. These are issues of extreme political significance, especially for countries aspiring for EU and euro area membership. The goal of this paper is to consolidate a variety of theoretical views on the convergence and its measurement and use it as the basis to assess the progress and the current state of economic convergence to the EU of the four candidate countries. The interrelation between the three forms of convergence in the different phases of the economic cycle is studied and the slobs in the ways the convergence is measured are outlined. The study reveals large differences between the candidate countries in achieving convergence with the EU. Their experiences do not confirm the positive relationship between nominal and real convergence. The structural convergence considered as convergence of sectoral structure has but little impact on the real convergence.
{"title":"Nominal, Structural and Real Convergence of the EU Candidate Countries’ Economies","authors":"Daniela Bobeva","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Despite the significant academic interest in the economic cohesion, the various aspects of convergence and the ways they can be measured still remain theoretically unclear. These are issues of extreme political significance, especially for countries aspiring for EU and euro area membership. The goal of this paper is to consolidate a variety of theoretical views on the convergence and its measurement and use it as the basis to assess the progress and the current state of economic convergence to the EU of the four candidate countries. The interrelation between the three forms of convergence in the different phases of the economic cycle is studied and the slobs in the ways the convergence is measured are outlined. The study reveals large differences between the candidate countries in achieving convergence with the EU. Their experiences do not confirm the positive relationship between nominal and real convergence. The structural convergence considered as convergence of sectoral structure has but little impact on the real convergence.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138537543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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