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A Winning Team of Losers: The Logic of Jihadist Coalitions in Civil Wars 失败者的胜利团队:内战中圣战联盟的逻辑
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac029
Aisha Ahmad, O. Diallo
For small groups fighting in multi-actor civil wars, joining a larger coalition is often a way to survive. Yet, it is not only rebel or pro-government non-state armed groups that form alliances; in many cases, jihadists have been surprisingly successful in building winning coalitions in civil wars. This is puzzling because jihadists attract fierce international opposition and are therefore very risky teams to join. Jihadists are also typically excluded from the political process, which means that they are unlikely to enjoy the spoils of a peace agreement. Why then would any local groups choose to join jihadist coalitions, rather than other rebel or pro-government coalitions in a conflict theatre? In this paper, we argue that ideology fails to explain this choice; rather, we contend that competition among rebel and pro-government coalitions inevitably produces winners and losers. Under these conditions, jihadists serve as an attractive spoiler coalition, drawing support from groups that see no chance of benefitting from an existing or future peace agreement. By offering these ‘losers’ a wider network and reference group, jihadists can expand their coalition base and territorial reach. By courting support from marginalized groups across ethnic and tribal lines, jihadists can create a winning coalition out of a diverse mix of losers.
对于在多方参与的内战中作战的小团体来说,加入一个更大的联盟往往是一种生存方式。然而,形成联盟的不仅仅是叛军或亲政府的非国家武装组织;在许多情况下,圣战分子在内战中建立获胜联盟方面取得了惊人的成功。这是令人困惑的,因为圣战分子吸引了激烈的国际反对,因此加入圣战组织是非常危险的。圣战分子通常也被排除在政治进程之外,这意味着他们不太可能享受和平协议带来的好处。那么,为什么会有地方组织选择加入圣战联盟,而不是在冲突地区加入其他叛军或亲政府联盟呢?在本文中,我们认为意识形态无法解释这种选择;相反,我们认为反对派和亲政府联盟之间的竞争不可避免地会产生赢家和输家。在这种情况下,圣战分子充当了一个有吸引力的破坏者联盟,从那些认为没有机会从现有或未来的和平协议中获益的组织那里获得支持。通过向这些“失败者”提供更广泛的网络和参考群体,圣战分子可以扩大他们的联盟基地和领土范围。通过争取跨种族、跨部落边缘群体的支持,圣战分子可以从形形色色的失败者中创建一个获胜的联盟。
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引用次数: 0
System Structure, Unjust War, and State Excusability 制度结构、非正义战争与国家的可原谅性
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogad001
David Rubin
This article seeks to bridge the interdisciplinary gap between just war theory (JWT) and international relations (IR) by introducing into the former discipline key theoretical and empirical insights from the latter discipline. Specifically, the article argues that traditional JWT is deficient as a normative account of war because it constitutes what Kenneth Waltz calls a “unit-level” theory, operating at the level of the individual state and evaluating the morality of a given war solely by reference to a list of state-level factors (e.g., just cause, proportionality, etc.). In this manner, JWT fails to take account of the systemic, or structural, correlates of international armed conflict. In particular, it fails to incorporate insights from the leading mainstream IR theories of neorealism, institutionalism, and constructivism in regard to how the international distribution of material capabilities, institutions, and ideas codetermines the nature and likelihood of war. To remedy these inadequacies of JWT, a “multilevel” approach to the morality of war is put forward according to which unit-level factors are required to be weighted by systemic factors. Pursuant to this approach, if a state has initiated or participated in a war that is assessed as unjust through the unit-level lens of traditional JWT, the state itself can still sometimes be partially excused for that war once systemic factors have been considered.
本文旨在通过将正义战争理论(JWT)和国际关系(IR)的关键理论和实证见解引入正义战争理论(JWT),弥合正义战争理论与国际关系(IR)之间的跨学科差距。具体来说,文章认为传统的JWT作为战争的规范描述是有缺陷的,因为它构成了肯尼斯·瓦尔兹(Kenneth Waltz)所说的“单位层面”理论,在单个国家的层面上运作,仅通过参考一系列国家层面的因素(例如,正当原因,比例性等)来评估特定战争的道德。以这种方式,智威汤逊没有考虑到国际武装冲突的系统性或结构性关联。特别是,在物质能力、制度和思想的国际分布如何共同决定战争的性质和可能性方面,它未能纳入新现实主义、制度主义和建构主义等主要主流国际关系理论的见解。为了弥补JWT的这些不足,提出了一种“多层次”的战争道德方法,根据这种方法,需要将单位层面的因素与系统因素进行加权。根据这种方法,如果一个国家发起或参与了一场通过传统JWT的单位层面视角被评估为不公正的战争,一旦考虑到系统因素,国家本身有时仍然可以部分地原谅这场战争。
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引用次数: 0
The Myth of the “Poor Man's Atomic Bomb”: Knowledge, Method, and Ideology in the Study of Chemical, Biological, and Nuclear Weapons “穷人的原子弹”的神话:化学、生物和核武器研究中的知识、方法和意识形态
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac037
Biejan Poor Toulabi
Chemical and biological weapons (CBWs) have often been characterized as a “poor man's atomic bomb”: a cheap and easy to acquire alternative to nuclear weapons that is particularly appealing to so-called Third World states. This idea is also reflected in Western government and expert estimates that have long exaggerated the spread of CBWs, especially among states in the Global South. In this article, I break down the ways in which the idea that the spread of CBWs is prevalent and that it primarily happens among states in the Global South has come to exist and persist. By dissecting an oft-cited dataset on CBW spread, I unravel frequently occurring methodological flaws—such as conceptual confusion, misinterpretation of sources, and a bias toward proliferation charges originating from the US government—that breed and sustain inflated estimates and faulty allegations. Subsequently, I show that a dominant cognitive framework that centers on the metaphorical use of the terms “proliferation” and “poor man's atomic bomb” primes analysts and policymakers to interpret the history and future of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons as being characterized by inevitable spread, particularly among the non-Western “Other.” In conclusion, I offer ways to counter the orthodoxies of this ideology in teaching, research, and policy.
化学和生物武器(CBWs)经常被描述为“穷人的原子弹”:一种廉价且容易获得的核武器替代品,对所谓的第三世界国家特别有吸引力。这一观点也反映在西方政府和专家长期夸大生化武器扩散的估计中,尤其是在全球南方国家中。在这篇文章中,我分析了生化武器的传播是普遍的,它主要发生在全球南方国家之间,这种观点是如何存在和持续的。通过剖析一个经常被引用的关于生化武器传播的数据集,我揭示了经常出现的方法缺陷——比如概念混淆、对来源的误解,以及对来自美国政府的扩散指控的偏见——这些缺陷滋生并维持了夸大的估计和错误的指控。随后,我展示了一个以隐喻性使用“扩散”和“穷人的原子弹”为中心的主流认知框架,使分析人士和政策制定者将化学、生物和核武器的历史和未来解释为不可避免的扩散,特别是在非西方的“他者”之间。最后,我提出了在教学、研究和政策方面对抗这种意识形态正统的方法。
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引用次数: 1
Rebel Resource Efficiency and the Escalation of Civil Conflict 叛军资源效率与内战升级
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac034
B. W. Reeder, Dong-Wook Kwak, J. R. Smith, M. Wales
What explains the ebbs and flows of government–rebel battles during civil conflict? We posit that rebels, as actors dissatisfied with the status quo, challenge the government when they can sustain fighting and absorb losses on the battlefield. This is possible when the group's resource base is stable and unlikely to be undermined by market forces, government action, or external interveners. If, however, rebel portfolios are extraordinarily profitable, rebels will focus on profiting from their investments, making the escalation of armed conflict less likely. Using a measure that captures the efficiency of rebel resource portfolios and two illustrative cases, we find evidence for this curvilinear relationship: conflicts escalate as resource portfolio efficiency increases but de-escalate slightly when portfolios are very efficient. Thus, the decision to escalate a conflict is revealed to be a function of the entire bundle of resources controlled by rebels and the market value of those resources. By accounting for the entirety of rebel resource portfolios, this study refines the insurgent–resource nexus, leading to a better understanding of civil conflict dynamics.
如何解释内战期间政府与叛军之间的战斗的起起伏伏?我们假设,叛乱分子作为不满现状的行动者,在他们能够维持战斗并吸收战场上的损失时挑战政府。当集团的资源基础稳定且不太可能被市场力量、政府行为或外部干预者破坏时,这是可能的。然而,如果反对派的投资组合非常有利可图,反对派将专注于从他们的投资中获利,从而降低武装冲突升级的可能性。利用一种衡量反叛资源组合效率的方法和两个说明案例,我们发现了这种曲线关系的证据:冲突随着资源组合效率的提高而升级,但当组合非常有效时,冲突会轻微降级。因此,使冲突升级的决定是反叛者控制的全部资源和这些资源的市场价值的函数。通过考虑叛军的全部资源组合,本研究完善了叛军与资源的关系,从而更好地理解了国内冲突的动态。
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引用次数: 1
Who Supports the Huawei 5G Ban? Advancing a Two-Level Ideational Approach in International Relations 谁支持华为5G禁令?推进国际关系两个层次的理念观
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac028
Yoon Jin Lee
The US allies’ decisions to ban or allow Huawei from building fifth-generation (5G) mobile broadband are significant to various actors, but their decisions have not been examined systematically. While related literatures point to relative bargaining power or domestic political constraints, I argue that strengths of pre-existing ideas, across national leader and national security institutional levels of analysis, help explain US allies’ positions. Specifically, I argue that the following three understandings are key: (1) China has aggressive intentions, (2) information and communications technology (ICT) system requires security, and (3) data privacy needs state protection. I argue that when the three key understandings are strong across national leader and national security institutional levels, the leader would likely adopt the Huawei 5G ban. On the other hand, when the three key understandings are weak across two levels, the leader would likely allow Huawei to partake in building 5G networks without tougher controls. I conduct a plausibility probe-based comparison of the decision cases of Australia and South Korea and find support for my hypotheses. The cross-national evidence calls for more attention to specific understandings—particular to action contexts—across at least two levels of analysis in explaining decisions of interest.
美国盟友禁止或允许华为建设第五代(5G)移动宽带的决定对各种参与者都很重要,但他们的决定尚未得到系统的审查。虽然相关文献指出了相对的议价能力或国内政治约束,但我认为,在国家领导人和国家安全制度层面的分析中,既有思想的优势有助于解释美国盟友的立场。具体而言,我认为以下三点理解是关键:(1)中国有侵略意图;(2)信息和通信技术(ICT)系统需要安全;(3)数据隐私需要国家保护。我认为,当国家领导人和国家安全机构层面的三个关键理解都很强时,领导人可能会采取华为5G禁令。另一方面,当这三个关键理解在两个层面上都薄弱时,领导者可能会允许华为参与5G网络建设,而无需更严格的控制。我对澳大利亚和韩国的决策案例进行了基于似是而非的比较,并为我的假设寻找支持。跨国证据要求我们在解释利益决定时,至少跨两个层面的分析,更加关注具体的理解——特别是行动背景。
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引用次数: 1
Progressive Grand Strategy: A Synthesis and Critique 进步大战略:综合与批判
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac032
J. Friedman
This article evaluates emerging progressive ideas about US grand strategy. Progressives’ distinctive analytic premise is that structural inequality undermines America's national interests. To combat this problem, progressives recommend retrenching US primacy in a manner that resembles the grand strategy of restraint. However, progressives also seek to build a more democratic international order that can facilitate new forms of global collective action. Progressives thus advocate ambitious international goals at the same time as they reject the institutional arrangements that the United States has traditionally used to promote its global agenda. No other grand strategy shares those attributes. After articulating the core elements of a progressive grand strategy, the article explores that strategy's unique risks and tradeoffs and raises several concerns about the theoretical and practical viability of progressive ideas.
本文评价了有关美国大战略的新兴进步思想。进步派独特的分析前提是,结构性不平等损害了美国的国家利益。为了解决这个问题,进步人士建议以类似于“克制大战略”的方式削弱美国的主导地位。然而,进步人士也寻求建立一个更加民主的国际秩序,以促进新形式的全球集体行动。因此,进步派在提倡雄心勃勃的国际目标的同时,也反对美国传统上用来推动其全球议程的制度安排。没有其他大战略具有这些特征。在阐述了进步大战略的核心要素之后,本文探讨了该战略的独特风险和权衡,并提出了关于进步思想在理论和实践上可行性的几个问题。
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引用次数: 0
Toward Measuring Free-Riding: Counterfactuals, Alliances, and US–Philippine Relations 衡量搭便车:反事实,联盟和美国-菲律宾关系
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac033
Xinru Ma, David C. Kang
Do allies free ride? Although plausible, the concept of free riding relies upon a counterfactual: if the ally did not have a powerful patron, then it would invest more in its own defense. However, these claims are often asserted, not shown. The concept of free riding, although influential in the field of security studies, is almost unfalsifiable. In this article, we show logically how difficult it is to ascertain actual free riding. Rather than dismiss the entire concept, however, we attempt to provide two hypotheses and one scope condition that moves closer to a direct assessment of claims of free riding: first, if the ally is free riding, as the patron's commitment decreases, the ally should spend more on its own defense; second, all things being equal, a state with a powerful patron should spend less than one without. The key scope condition is whether the ally cares sufficiently about the issue to fight. We use the case of East Asia—and in particular the Philippines—to illustrate these dynamics. We conclude that the low defense spending of US allies and non-allies in East Asia is not free riding but rather a reflection of their low threat perceptions.
盟友们会搭便车吗?尽管看似合理,但搭便车的概念依赖于一个反事实:如果盟友没有一个强大的赞助人,那么它就会在自己的防御上投入更多。然而,这些主张往往是断言的,而不是表现出来的。搭便车的概念虽然在安全研究领域很有影响力,但几乎是不可证伪的。在本文中,我们从逻辑上说明确定实际的搭便车是多么困难。然而,我们并没有否定整个概念,而是试图提供两个假设和一个更接近于直接评估免费搭便车主张的范围条件:首先,如果盟国是免费搭便车,随着赞助人的承诺减少,盟国应该在自己的防御上花费更多;其次,在所有条件都相同的情况下,拥有强大靠山的国家应该比没有靠山的国家花费更少。关键的范围条件是盟国是否足够关心这个问题。我们以东亚,特别是菲律宾为例来说明这些动态。我们的结论是,美国在东亚的盟友和非盟友的低国防开支不是搭便车,而是反映了他们对低威胁的看法。
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引用次数: 0
Correction to: Same Same but Different? Ideological Differentiation and Intra-jihadist Competition in the Syrian Civil War 更正:相同但不同?叙利亚内战中的意识形态分化和圣战内部竞争
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogad002
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引用次数: 0
New Questions for an Old Alliance: NATO in Cyberspace and American Public Opinion 旧联盟的新问题:网络空间中的北约与美国公众舆论
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac024
Lindsey Guenther, P. Musgrave
Cybersecurity poses new questions for old alliances. These questions emerge with special force in the case of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The Russian Federation wields substantial cyber capabilities, but NATO members have been ambivalent about stating what sorts of attacks would trigger the North Atlantic Treaty's Article 5 collective self-defense provisions. Nevertheless, NATO officials state that there are some attacks that would trigger Article 5. This leads to a puzzle: why would an explicit alliance guarantee designed to ensure collective defense against certain forms of attack be informally extended to include others? Because the policy of the United States toward such questions will likely be of great significance in determining NATO policy, we use a series of survey experiments to test American public opinion regarding support for defending allies and friendly countries against cyber operations. Respondents are likelier to support a response to an attack that causes fatalities and when the victim has a treaty alliance with the United States. In contrast, support falls if US participation is likely to provoke further retaliation or the target attacked is civilian rather than military.
网络安全给老联盟带来了新问题。这些问题在北大西洋公约组织(北约)的情况下特别突出。俄罗斯联邦拥有强大的网络能力,但北约成员国一直对哪些类型的攻击会触发《北大西洋公约》(North Atlantic Treaty)第5条的集体自卫权条款犹豫不决。然而,北约官员表示,有些袭击会触发第5条。这就引出了一个难题:为什么一个旨在确保集体防御某些形式攻击的明确联盟保证会被非正式地扩展到包括其他形式的攻击?由于美国对这些问题的政策可能对决定北约的政策具有重要意义,我们使用一系列调查实验来测试美国公众对保护盟友和友好国家免受网络行动的支持。受访者更有可能支持对造成死亡的袭击以及受害者与美国有条约联盟的袭击作出反应。相比之下,如果美国的参与可能引发进一步的报复,或者攻击的目标是平民而不是军方,那么支持率就会下降。
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引用次数: 1
Great Power Competition and China's Security Assistance to Africa: Arms, Training, and Influence 大国竞争与中国对非洲的安全援助:武器、训练和影响
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-10-31 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac027
Ilaria Carrozza, Nicholas J Marsh
This article presents the first comprehensive collation of available information on China's provision of security force assistance (SFA) to African countries over the last two decades. While China is engaged in donating arms, military equipment, and training abroad, knowledge of the nature of its SFA programmes has been at best fragmented and partial. In this article, we fill this gap by outlining China's stated rationale for providing SFA, the level of funding, which states received it, and what they received. We contextualize our analysis in light of current debates over China's rise and great power competition, as well as its broader engagement in African security. Based on our original data, we argue that in providing SFA to most African states, China aims to strengthen long-term relations and protect its economic interests. While we find no evidence that China is attempting to supplant the US and other providers’ role in Africa, we point to some unintended consequences.
本文首次全面整理了过去20年来中国向非洲国家提供安全部队援助(SFA)的现有信息。虽然中国正在向海外捐赠武器、军事装备和培训,但对其SFA项目性质的了解最多是零散和部分的。在本文中,我们将通过概述中国提供SFA的理由、资金水平、哪些国家收到了这笔资金以及它们收到了什么来填补这一空白。我们的分析背景是当前关于中国崛起和大国竞争的争论,以及中国在非洲安全问题上更广泛的参与。根据我们的原始数据,我们认为,在向大多数非洲国家提供SFA时,中国旨在加强长期关系并保护其经济利益。虽然我们没有发现任何证据表明中国正试图取代美国和其他供应商在非洲的角色,但我们指出了一些意想不到的后果。
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引用次数: 1
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Journal of Global Security Studies
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