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Slow Rolls, Shoulder-Taps, and Coups: Building a Research Program in Military Dissent Across Regime Types 慢滚,肩拍和政变:建立一个跨政权类型的军事异议研究项目
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-10-31 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac026
Risa A. Brooks, D. Pion-Berlin
This article advances a research program in military dissent, contributing to growing scholarly interest in the subject. It first outlines a variety of “tactics of dissent,” discriminating among them according to the pathway through which they shape political leaders’ decisions and the related audiences and objectives of the method. These sets of tactics are domestic politics, bureaucratic, coercive, and organizational. The article illustrates these tactics with examples from across advanced democracies, developing democracies and autocracies, and with lengthier treatments of Brazil, Egypt, and the U.S. In so doing, the article helps bridge subfield divides in the study of civil-military relations, arguing that neglecting these tactics truncates variation in the character and intensity of dissent within and across regime types. In addition, it outlines several questions to guide future research, including efforts to better understand the metrics and drivers of dissent, the efficacy of these tactics in undermining civilian initiatives and their larger consequences for democracy and civil-military relations.
这篇文章推进了一项关于军事异议的研究计划,促进了这一主题日益增长的学术兴趣。它首先概述了各种“异议策略”,根据它们影响政治领导人决策的途径以及相关的受众和方法的目标,对它们进行区分。这些策略包括国内政治、官僚主义、强制性和组织性。这篇文章用来自发达民主国家、发展中民主国家和专制国家的例子来说明这些策略,并对巴西、埃及和美国进行了较长的论述。通过这样做,这篇文章有助于弥合文武关系研究中的子领域分歧,认为忽视这些策略会截断不同政权类型内部和不同政权类型之间异议的性质和强度的变化。此外,它还概述了指导未来研究的几个问题,包括努力更好地理解异议的衡量标准和驱动因素,这些策略在破坏民间倡议方面的功效,以及它们对民主和军民关系的更大影响。
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引用次数: 1
Constraining Tamil Transnational Political Action: Security Governance Practices beyond the Sending State 制约泰米尔跨国政治行动:派遣国之外的安全治理实践
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-10-31 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac023
Catherine Ruth Craven
This paper examines the security governance of the Tamil diaspora through a practice lens. It takes as its starting point the observation that the Tamil diaspora community has historically been subjected to complex and multi-scalar security governance. How this continues after the end of the Sri Lankan civil war period remains empirically and theoretically underexamined, with studies focusing instead on Tamil diaspora organizing. This paper addresses this gap by mapping and theorizing contemporary constraints to Tamil transnational political action (TPA), building on the growing literature on the transnational repression of diaspora. Further, it proposes to move beyond the state-centrism and liberal bias inherent in this literature, by centering security governance practices. Based on a review of existing literature and historical and ethnographic data collected through mixed-method fieldwork among the Tamil diaspora community between 2015 and 2018, this paper concludes that key security governance practices that constrain Tamil TPA, such as proscription, counterterrorism policing, and formal diplomatic practices, have continued since the end of the civil war, each revealing complex global security entanglements beyond the diaspora sending state.
本文从实践的角度考察了泰米尔侨民的安全治理。它的出发点是观察到泰米尔侨民社区在历史上一直受到复杂和多尺度的安全治理。在斯里兰卡内战结束后,这种情况如何继续下去,在经验和理论上都没有得到充分的研究,研究的重点是泰米尔侨民的组织。本文通过绘制和理论化泰米尔跨国政治行动(TPA)的当代约束来解决这一差距,建立在越来越多的关于侨民跨国镇压的文献基础上。此外,它建议通过以安全治理实践为中心,超越本文献中固有的国家中心主义和自由主义偏见。本文基于对现有文献以及2015年至2018年间通过对泰米尔侨民社区进行混合方法实地调查收集的历史和民族志数据的回顾,得出结论认为,自内战结束以来,限制泰米尔TPA的关键安全治理实践(如禁令、反恐警务和正式外交实践)一直在持续,每一项都揭示了侨民派遣国之外的复杂全球安全纠缠。
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引用次数: 0
Public Support for Nuclear Proliferation: Experimental Evidence from Brazil 公众对核扩散的支持:来自巴西的实验证据
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-10-04 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac020
M. Spektor, Guilherme N. Fasolin, Juliana Camargo
How do mass publics in nonnuclear weapon states form their preferences over the acquisition of nuclear weapons? We field a survey experiment in Brazil, a possessor of uranium-enrichment capabilities with a long history of nuclear ambitions. Three sets of results support the view that members of the public approach nuclear proliferation strategically, that is, by taking into account how their home state interacts with enemies and allies alike. First, the external security environment is a major driver for individual-level preferences: when security is plentiful, only a small minority of the public in Brazil supports proliferation, but a deterioration of external conditions engenders a high minority in support for nuclear-weapon acquisition. Second, the mere extension by the United States of conventional security assurances suffices to dampen public support for an indigenous nuclear deterrent, restoring a majority view opposing proliferation. Third, conventional security assurances shape public sentiment on nuclear acquisition irrespective of whether they are credible or not. These results contribute to the effort currently unfolding in the scholarly community to make sense of how citizens outside the United States think about international security in a nuclear world.
无核武器国家的公众是如何形成他们对获取核武器的偏好的?我们在巴西进行了一项调查实验,巴西拥有铀浓缩能力,长期以来一直有核野心。有三组结果支持这样一种观点,即公众对核扩散的态度是战略性的,也就是说,他们会考虑本国如何与敌人和盟友互动。首先,外部安全环境是个人偏好的主要驱动因素:当安全充足时,巴西公众中只有少数人支持扩散,但外部条件的恶化导致支持获取核武器的少数人占很大比例。其次,美国仅仅延长常规安全保证就足以削弱公众对本土核威慑的支持,恢复大多数人反对扩散的观点。第三,传统的安全保证会影响公众对核获取的情绪,而不管这些保证是否可信。这些结果有助于学术界目前正在开展的一项工作,即了解美国以外的公民如何看待核世界中的国际安全。
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引用次数: 0
Renewing the Study of Trust in World Politics: A Relational Agenda 更新世界政治中的信任研究:一个关系议题
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac019
Thierry Balzacq
This introductory essay lays the groundwork for an inductive, relational approach to the study of trust in international relations. It argues that the two main accounts of trust, affective and cognitive, are less separate motivational sources of trust than two constitutive dimensions, albeit in varying degrees, of a trusting relationship. Trust is an emergent property of social relations, and the specific form and content it takes inhere in the relationship that embodies it, whether or not actors involved are deemed trustworthy a priori. In addition to emphasizing contextual manifestations of trust, this article suggests that a relational understanding of trust foregrounds normative expectations created by trusting relationships, which the mutual determination between trustworthiness and trust-responsiveness makes necessary. The article concludes with a presentation of this forum's contributions. It shows that a relational view of trust enables us to reconcile the generic question—why agents trust one another—with contextual concerns—when and how do they exhibit trusting relationships.
这篇介绍性文章为国际关系中信任研究的归纳、关系方法奠定了基础。它认为,信任的两个主要方面,情感和认知,是信任的两个独立的动机来源,而不是信任关系的两个构成维度,尽管程度不同。信任是社会关系的一种新兴属性,它所采取的特定形式和内容体现在关系中,无论参与者是否被认为是先验的值得信赖。除了强调信任的情境表现外,本文还建议对信任的关系理解突出了信任关系所产生的规范性期望,信任可信度和信任响应之间的相互决定使其成为必要。文章最后介绍了该论坛的贡献。它表明,信任的关系观使我们能够调和一般问题——为什么代理人相互信任——与上下文关注——他们何时以及如何表现信任关系。
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引用次数: 0
Overcoming the Four Horsemen of Reassurance Diplomacy: Explaining Variation in Face-to-Face Engagement 克服安抚外交的四骑士:解释面对面接触的变化
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac015
N. Wheeler, Marcus Holmes
The decision to engage in face-to-face diplomacy aimed at reassuring an adversary is one of the most salient ones a state leader will have to make. However, often leaders choose not to engage in such diplomacy because they follow those scholars and pundits who are skeptical of the reassurance value of interpersonal face-to-face diplomacy. This creates an important puzzle. Why do leaders sometimes choose to promote reassurance through meeting personally? And why, in other cases, do they not? The answer we provide in this article is that it depends crucially on the extent to which each leader in the dyad possesses security dilemma sensibility (SDS). We conceptualize SDS as varying both in intensity of the strength of the actor's intention and capacity to exercise it and in the extent to which actors believe the other actor in the dyad may possess SDS. The article develops a typology of three SDS leader types—distrusters, uncertains, and empathics—showing how the strength and orientation of SDS in each type shape their willingness to pursue face-to-face diplomacy. We then illustrate the utility of the typology in three short cases: Reagan and Gorbachev's decisions to engage in 1985 in Geneva, Kennedy and Khrushchev's decisions to meet in 1961 in Vienna, and finally, one of the “dogs that did not bark” (the summits that did not happen), the lack of face-to-face diplomacy between Obama and his North Korean counterpart, Kim Jong-il. We conclude with implications for future research and recommendations for policymakers.
一个国家领导人必须做出的最重要的决定之一是,决定进行面对面的外交,以安抚对手。然而,领导人往往选择不参与这种外交,因为他们追随那些对人际面对面外交的安抚价值持怀疑态度的学者和权威人士。这就产生了一个重要的难题。为什么领导人有时会选择通过亲自会面来促进安抚?为什么,在其他情况下,他们不这样做?我们在本文中提供的答案是,这在很大程度上取决于两分体中每个领导者拥有安全困境敏感性(SDS)的程度。我们将SDS定义为行为人意图的强度和能力的变化,以及行为人相信二人组中的另一个行为人可能拥有SDS的程度。本文发展了三种SDS领导人类型的分类——不信任者、不确定者和移情者——展示了每种类型的SDS的力量和方向如何塑造了他们追求面对面外交的意愿。然后,我们用三个简短的例子来说明类型学的效用:里根和戈尔巴乔夫1985年决定在日内瓦接触,肯尼迪和赫鲁晓夫决定1961年在维也纳会面,最后,“不叫的狗”(没有举行的峰会)之一,奥巴马和朝鲜对手金正日之间缺乏面对面的外交。最后,我们提出了对未来研究的启示和对政策制定者的建议。
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引用次数: 0
Defense Contractors, Private Equity Firms, and US National Security 国防承包商、私募股权公司和美国国家安全
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-07-23 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac018
Charles W Mahoney, Benjamin K Tkach, Craig J Rethmeyer
Private equity firms have become important financial actors in the US defense industry in recent years—acquiring over 500 defense contractors since the early 2000s. This inquiry describes how increased capital flows into private equity funds, rising national security budgets, Pentagon policy, and rapid industry consolidation have spurred private equity investment in the businesses of American defense. Subsequently, the study demonstrates two ways private equity acquisitions of corporations in the defense industry affect US national security. First, because private equity firms often fund acquisitions through leveraged buyouts, the debt obligations of private equity–owned defense contractors are characterized by a relatively high risk of credit default. Second, the debt burden private equity firms place on defense contractors often reduces these companies’ free cash flow. As an increasing number of defense contractors are acquired by private equity firms, aggregate corporate reinvestment in the defense industry may well decline, thus diminishing the ability of contractors to perform their national security obligations. entreprises du secteur de la défense sociétés de capital-investissement et sécurité nationale aux états-unis
近年来,私募股权公司已成为美国国防工业重要的金融参与者——自本世纪初以来收购了500多家国防承包商。本调查描述了流入私募股权基金的资本增加、国家安全预算上升、五角大楼政策以及快速的行业整合如何刺激了私募股权对美国国防业务的投资。随后,该研究展示了私人股本收购国防工业企业影响美国国家安全的两种方式。首先,由于私募股权公司经常通过杠杆收购为收购提供资金,私募股权拥有的国防承包商的债务义务具有相对较高的信用违约风险。其次,私募股权公司给国防承包商带来的债务负担往往会减少这些公司的自由现金流。随着越来越多的国防承包商被私募股权公司收购,国防工业的企业再投资总额可能会下降,从而削弱了承包商履行国家安全义务的能力。企业部门、社会部门、资本投资部门、国家部门、单位部门
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引用次数: 0
Glee and Grievance: Emotive Events and Campaign Size in Nonviolent Resistance 欢乐与委屈:非暴力抵抗中的情绪事件与运动规模
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-07-23 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac011
J. Gledhill, Allard Duursma, C. Shay
While scholars of nonviolent resistance recognize that large-scale campaigns are more likely to be successful campaigns, we currently have little understanding of why some nonviolent protests grow into mass movements while others do not. In this article, we explore campaign size and, in particular, the role of individual and collective motives in facilitating the growth of nonviolent campaigns. We start by assuming that, after campaign onset, barriers to growth emerge because some aggrieved individuals who are sympathetic to the cause are wary of incurring the (opportunity) costs of participating in campaign rallies. On occasion, we argue, organizers respond to this challenge by staging events that generate rewarding emotional experiences for participants and spectators, such as concerts, mass singing, or other collective expressive acts. Since the feelings of empowerment, solidarity, catharsis, or glee that accompany these events can only be enjoyed by those who are physically present at campaign rallies, the provision of such “emotive events” creates an individual-level incentive for passive supporters to mobilize. As this incentive attracts new participants, campaigns can grow—potentially into large-scale phenomena. To assess the plausibility of our argument, we code original data on emotive events and investigate whether the provision of such events in the course of nonviolent campaigns is associated with the size and scale of those campaigns. Finding this to be the case, we conclude that campaigns that are more creative, humorous, cathartic, and/or fun are also more likely to be large-scale campaigns.
虽然非暴力抵抗的学者们认识到大规模的运动更有可能成为成功的运动,但我们目前对为什么一些非暴力抗议发展成大规模运动而另一些却没有的原因知之甚少。在这篇文章中,我们探讨了运动的规模,特别是个人和集体动机在促进非暴力运动发展中的作用。我们首先假设,在竞选活动开始后,发展障碍出现了,因为一些同情这项事业的受委屈的个人担心承担参加竞选集会的(机会)成本。我们认为,组织者有时会通过举办活动来应对这一挑战,为参与者和观众带来有益的情感体验,如音乐会、集体歌唱或其他集体表达行为。由于伴随着这些活动的授权、团结、宣泄或欢乐的感觉只能由那些亲自参加竞选集会的人享受,提供这种“情感事件”为被动的支持者动员创造了个人层面的激励。由于这种激励吸引了新的参与者,运动可能会发展成潜在的大规模现象。为了评估我们的论点的合理性,我们对情感事件的原始数据进行编码,并调查在非暴力运动过程中提供此类事件是否与这些运动的规模和规模有关。在这种情况下,我们得出结论,更具创造性、幽默性、宣泄性和/或趣味性的活动也更有可能是大规模的活动。
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引用次数: 0
Citizens to Soldiers: Mobilization, Cost Perceptions, and Support for Military Action 从公民到士兵:军事行动的动员、成本认知和支持
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-07-23 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac017
Jessica D. Blankshain, Lindsay P. Cohn, D. Kriner
Policymakers have long assumed, and scholars have long argued, that how a government raises military manpower affects public support for military action through two obvious mechanisms: the likelihood any given individual will be personally affected by the conflict, and the expected aggregate cost of the conflict. Increased costs are thought to cause the public to be more critical of the use of military force. But do they? We gain leverage on this question in the US context by employing a survey experiment that allows us both to compare reactions to a range of manpower policies—an all-volunteer standing force, conscription, and mobilization of the reserves—and to explicitly test multiple mechanisms—expectations of bearing personal cost, expectations of aggregate cost, and effects not explained by these cost expectations. Our results strongly suggest that manpower policies’ effects are not straightforward. Consistent with previous studies, we find that an expectation of conscription lowers public support for military action. Mobilization of the reserves, however, fails to diminish support, despite the fact that it should also affect more people and signal a larger conflict. While casualty estimates (proxy for scale) are negatively correlated with mission support, personal cost expectations are not. Furthermore, much of the variation between manpower treatments is not explained by either tested cost mechanism, suggesting a role for norms and values. These findings have implications for whether military manpower policies designed to impose political costs on policymakers are likely to work and for wider discussions of public support for military operations.
长期以来,政策制定者一直假设,学者们也一直在争论,政府如何增加军事人力会通过两种明显的机制影响公众对军事行动的支持:任何特定个人受到冲突影响的可能性,以及冲突的预期总成本。成本的增加被认为会导致公众对使用军事力量更加不满。但真的是这样吗?在美国的背景下,我们通过一项调查实验获得了这个问题的杠杆作用,该实验允许我们比较对一系列人力政策的反应——全志愿常备军、征兵和预备役动员——并明确测试多种机制——承担个人成本的预期、总成本的预期,以及这些成本预期无法解释的影响。我们的研究结果强烈表明,人力政策的影响并不是直截了当的。与之前的研究一致,我们发现征兵的预期降低了公众对军事行动的支持。然而,动员储备并没有减少支持,尽管事实上它也应该影响更多的人,并预示着更大的冲突。虽然伤亡估计数(代替规模)与特派团支助负相关,但个人费用预期却不是。此外,人力待遇之间的许多差异都不能用经过测试的成本机制来解释,这表明规范和价值观的作用。这些发现对旨在给决策者施加政治成本的军事人力政策是否可能奏效以及对公众对军事行动的支持进行更广泛的讨论具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
How China's Cognitive Warfare Works: A Frontline Perspective of Taiwan's Anti-Disinformation Wars 中国的认知战是如何运作的:台湾反虚假信息战的前线视角
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-07-19 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac016
Tzu-Chieh Hung, Tzu-wei Hung
Cognitive warfare—controlling others’ mental states and behaviors by manipulating environmental stimuli—is a significant and ever-evolving issue in global conflict and security, especially during the COVID-19 crisis. In this article, we aim to contribute to the field by proposing a two-dimensional framework to evaluate China's cognitive warfare and explore promising ways of counteracting it. We first define the problem by clarifying relevant concepts and then present a case study of China's attack on Taiwan. Next, based on predictive coding theory from the cognitive sciences, we offer a framework to explain how China's cognitive warfare works and to what extent it succeeds. We argue that this framework helps identify vulnerable targets and better explains some of the conflicting data in the literature. Finally, based on the framework, we predict China's strategy and discuss Taiwan's options in terms of cognitive and structural interventions.
认知战——通过操纵环境刺激来控制他人的精神状态和行为——是全球冲突和安全中一个重要且不断演变的问题,特别是在2019冠状病毒病危机期间。在本文中,我们的目标是通过提出一个二维框架来评估中国的认知战,并探索对抗它的有希望的方法,从而为该领域做出贡献。我们首先通过澄清相关概念来界定问题,然后提出中国对台湾攻击的案例研究。接下来,基于认知科学的预测编码理论,我们提供了一个框架来解释中国的认知战是如何运作的,以及它在多大程度上取得了成功。我们认为,这一框架有助于识别易受攻击的目标,并更好地解释文献中一些相互矛盾的数据。最后,在此框架下,我们预测了中国大陆的策略,并从认知干预和结构干预两方面讨论了台湾的选择。
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引用次数: 10
The United Nations Security Council and Human Rights: Who Ends Up in the Spotlight? 联合国安理会与人权:谁最终成为焦点?
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-07-19 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac013
S. Allen, Sam R. Bell
At the end of the Cold War, the United Nations Security Council broadened its view on what constitutes a “threat to international peace and security.” With the rise of the concept of human security and increased focus on human rights, the Council has been more willing to act in response to domestic political issues such as human rights abuses. Despite an increased commitment to human security, the Council's attention on these issues has been uneven. What determines whose rights capture the Council's attention? What role do efforts by NGOs to “name and shame” play in the setting of the Council's agenda? We find that human rights abuses lead to countries being placed on the Council's agenda, but human rights organization naming and shaming results in more action by the Council—in terms of both meetings held and resolutions passed.
冷战结束时,联合国安理会扩大了对什么构成“对国际和平与安全的威胁”的看法。随着人类安全概念的兴起和对人权的日益重视,安理会更愿意对诸如侵犯人权等国内政治问题采取行动。尽管对人类安全的承诺有所增加,但安理会对这些问题的注意却参差不齐。是什么决定了谁的权利引起安理会的注意?非政府组织“点名羞辱”的努力在制定理事会议程方面发挥了什么作用?我们发现,侵犯人权导致一些国家被列入理事会的议程,但人权组织的点名和羞辱导致理事会采取更多行动——无论是在召开的会议上还是在通过的决议上。
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引用次数: 1
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Journal of Global Security Studies
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