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Dealing with Divergence: Intra-party Dynamics and Spoiler Management in Civil Wars 处理分歧:内战中的党内动态和破坏者管理
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogad003
Desirée Nilsson, M. S. Kovacs
Civil war peace processes are frequently accompanied by spoiler behavior relating to intra-party divergence, such as leadership struggles or breakaway groups, which risk undermining the implementation of a peace accord. However, previous literature has not sufficiently explored how third-party actors can address spoiler behavior linked to such intra-party aspects. This study addresses this gap by providing an empirical analysis of a few illustrative cases of spoiler behavior by armed actors in two peace processes in West Africa—Sierra Leone after the 1999 Lomé peace accords and Liberia after the 2003 Accra peace agreement. We find that in contexts where there is a vertical divergence between the leader and the rest of the group, divisive strategies—aimed to divide and rule or marginalize—are effective. In contrast, in situations of horizontal divergence between different factions that are more equal in power, integrative strategies—aimed at unifying the ranks or reconciling a divided leadership—are more appropriate. This study enhances our understanding of how third-party strategies can be devised to manage intra-party divisions that otherwise may threaten a transition from war to peace.
内战和平进程经常伴随着与党内分歧有关的破坏行为,如领导层斗争或分裂组织,这有可能破坏和平协议的实施。然而,之前的文献并没有充分探讨第三方行为者如何解决与此类党内因素相关的破坏者行为。本研究通过对西非两个和平进程中武装行为者破坏者行为的几个说明案例进行实证分析来解决这一差距,这两个和平进程分别是1999年《洛马雷和平协定》之后的塞拉利昂和2003年《阿克拉和平协定》之后的利比里亚。我们发现,在领导者和团队其他成员之间存在垂直分歧的情况下,分裂策略——旨在分而治之或边缘化——是有效的。相比之下,在权力更平等的不同派系之间存在横向分歧的情况下,旨在统一队伍或调和分裂的领导的综合战略更为合适。这项研究增强了我们对如何设计第三方战略来管理党内分歧的理解,否则这些分歧可能会威胁到从战争到和平的过渡。
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引用次数: 0
Shaming and Treaty Ratification 羞辱和条约批准
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogad007
Ryan M. Welch
Does shaming affect human rights treaty ratification? Whereas most scholars study shaming’s effects on eventual human rights respect, models of international shame predict states institutionalize rights before behavioral changes become reality. I take a step back and study shaming’s effects on treaty ratification. Viewing shaming as a process that seeks to change behavior by isolating and embarrassing the target leads to a somewhat counter-intuitive prediction—although increasing pressure on states raises a state’s willingness to ratify treaties, too much shame can cause a state to eschew treaty ratification. The argument follows from the social psychology literature on social exclusion that shows isolated individuals retreat from efforts to act normatively rather than increasing their efforts at inclusion. Using data on ratifications of the core UN human rights treaties and an original latent variable measuring shame, I find support for the argument that shaming increases treaty ratification to a point, but then begins to decrease ratification rates.
羞辱会影响人权条约的批准吗?虽然大多数学者研究羞耻对最终尊重人权的影响,但国际羞耻模型预测,在行为改变成为现实之前,国家将权利制度化。我退后一步,研究羞辱对条约批准的影响。将羞耻感视为一个通过孤立和使目标难堪来寻求改变行为的过程,会导致一种有点违反直觉的预测——尽管对国家施加越来越大的压力会提高一个国家批准条约的意愿,但过多的羞耻感会导致一个国家回避批准条约。这一论点来自社会心理学关于社会排斥的文献,这些文献表明,孤立的个体会从规范行为的努力中退缩,而不是增加他们在包容方面的努力。通过使用联合国核心人权条约的批准数据和衡量羞耻感的原始潜在变量,我发现羞耻感在一定程度上增加了条约的批准,但随后开始降低批准率,这一论点得到了支持。
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引用次数: 0
How Can We Know What We Think We Know about Cyber Operations? 我们如何知道我们自以为知道的网络作战?
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogad011
Eugenio Lilli
Academic research on cyber operations is characterized by an exceptional paucity of work on sources and methods of information gathering and analysis. This lack of attention can arguably hinder the future development of this increasingly important area of research and weaken its potential impact on policymaking and the wider society. This article sets to redress this undesirable situation by addressing a number of critical questions: What obstacles make collecting information on cyber operations especially hard? What are the main sources of information available to the scholar of cyber international relations? Why should we rely critically on these sources? This article's second main contribution is to advance the adoption of a research technique for the study of cyber operations based on a combination of Triangulation and Problematization called TP technique. The article also provides three detailed examples of how this research technique can be used in practice to investigate specific scenarios concerning real-world cyber operations. The article ends with a discussion of the limitations of the proposed technique while also reaffirming the benefits deriving from its application to the study of cyber operations.
关于网络作战的学术研究的特点是,在信息收集和分析的来源和方法方面的工作非常缺乏。这种缺乏关注可能会阻碍这一日益重要的研究领域的未来发展,并削弱其对决策和更广泛社会的潜在影响。本文将通过解决一些关键问题来纠正这种不良情况:哪些障碍使得收集网络操作信息特别困难?网络国际关系学者可获得的主要信息来源是什么?我们为什么要严格依赖这些信息来源呢?本文的第二个主要贡献是推进了一种研究技术的采用,该技术是基于三角测量和问题化的结合,称为TP技术。本文还提供了三个详细的例子,说明如何在实践中使用这种研究技术来调查有关现实世界网络操作的特定场景。文章最后讨论了所提出的技术的局限性,同时也重申了将其应用于网络作战研究的好处。
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引用次数: 0
Solar Geoengineering: The View from Just War/Securitization Theories 太阳能地球工程:来自正义战争/证券化理论的观点
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogad012
Rita Floyd
As the world continues to fail to reduce and control global surface temperatures, the use of solar radiation management (SRM) technology by one actor or by a small coalition of actors is becoming increasingly likely. Yet, most of the social scientific literature on solar geoengineering does not tend to systematically engage with this possibility; scholars focus either on global governance or on banning SRM usage and research altogether. On the margins of this debate, a handful of researchers have sought to bring insights from the just war tradition to the issue of unilateral and minilateral SRM usage. This article is concerned with the contribution just war/securitization theories can make to our understanding of the debate surrounding climate engineering. It scrutinizes and deepens existing attempts by just war scholars to examine the moral permissibility of unilateral and minilateral SRM usage, including from the perspective of Just Securitization Theory.
由于世界继续未能降低和控制全球表面温度,一个行动者或一个小联盟使用太阳辐射管理(SRM)技术的可能性越来越大。然而,大多数关于太阳能地球工程的社会科学文献并不倾向于系统地探讨这种可能性;学者们要么关注全球治理,要么关注完全禁止SRM的使用和研究。在这场辩论的边缘,少数研究人员试图从正义战争传统中引入单边和小边SRM使用问题的见解。本文关注的是正义战争/证券化理论对我们理解围绕气候工程的辩论的贡献。它审视并深化了正义战争学者现有的尝试,包括从正义证券化理论的角度审视单边和小边SRM使用的道德容许性。
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引用次数: 1
The US Intelligence Community, Global Security, and AI: From Secret Intelligence to Smart Spying 美国情报界、全球安全和人工智能:从秘密情报到智能间谍
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogad005
Christopher R. Moran, J. Burton, G. Christou
This article examines the ways in which the US intelligence community is leveraging the power of artificial intelligence (AI) for national security purposes. Drawing on declassified intelligence records, it contends that this community has been fascinated by AI for decades. This is important to acknowledge because this historical context has shaped contemporary projects and thinking within the community. It has given the United States a first-mover advantage, establishing precedents that other global actors need to comply with, negotiate or resist. The article advances three arguments. One, the community has long recognized that it needs to collaborate with the tech sector on AI. However, these relationships bring certain challenges since the sector is a curious compound of ideologies and interests. Two, while the community was initially attracted to the data processing advantages of AI to help human analysts to overcome “data smog,” today it has broadened its focus to consider how AI can improve all stages of the intelligence cycle. Three, while many voices feverishly herald the transformative potential of AI in the global security environment, we argue instead that US agencies will not be able to exploit the full potential of AI, and thus talk of an intelligence revolution is premature. This is because of national and international rules on data collection and retention but also because of cultural tensions within the global AI ecosystem. The discussion will appeal to scholars and practitioners interested in the impact of emerging technologies on national security processes and decision-making and, more broadly, global security.
本文探讨了美国情报界如何利用人工智能(AI)的力量来实现国家安全目的。根据解密的情报记录,它认为这个社区几十年来一直对人工智能着迷。认识到这一点很重要,因为这一历史背景塑造了社区内的当代项目和思想。它给了美国先发优势,开创了其他全球参与者需要遵守、谈判或抵制的先例。这篇文章提出了三个论点。首先,社区长期以来一直认识到,它需要在人工智能方面与科技部门合作。然而,这些关系带来了一定的挑战,因为该行业是一个奇怪的意识形态和利益的混合体。第二,虽然社区最初被人工智能的数据处理优势所吸引,以帮助人类分析师克服“数据烟雾”,但今天它已经扩大了关注范围,考虑人工智能如何改善情报周期的各个阶段。第三,尽管许多声音狂热地预示着人工智能在全球安全环境中的变革潜力,但我们认为,美国机构将无法充分利用人工智能的潜力,因此谈论智能革命还为时过早。这不仅是因为国家和国际上对数据收集和保留的规定,还因为全球人工智能生态系统内部的文化紧张关系。讨论将吸引对新兴技术对国家安全进程和决策以及更广泛的全球安全的影响感兴趣的学者和实践者。
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引用次数: 2
Promoting Peace and Impunity? Amnesty Laws after War in El Salvador and beyond 促进和平与有罪不罚?战后萨尔瓦多及其他国家的大赦法
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogad010
Nadine Ansorg, Sabine Kurtenbach
Amnesty laws are a widespread practice in the transition from war to peace. They often aim at the transformation of violent conflict by making promises about exemptions from liability for war crimes. Critics argue that amnesties are in violation of international law and reproduce impunity in post-war societies, whereas supporters of amnesty laws focus on their peace-promoting features. Previous research has extensively looked into the second aspect, and found that amnesty laws can open the door to negotiations and a short-term termination of civil war. The question of impunity, however, has not been answered extensively. Applying a Historical Institutionalist framework, we assess the impact of the adoption of amnesty laws on societal impunity, defined as any person or group being exempt from punishment or free from the injurious consequences of an action. Case-study evidence from El Salvador shows that amnesty laws are reproducing existing power relations and thus inhibit profound reforms. With the help of amnesty laws, an institutional environment will be created that acts in the favor of involved parties for years, if not decades. We subsequently test these qualitative findings with a newly created dataset on post-war justice sector governance and reform across forty different post-war countries worldwide from 1990 to 2016, and with societal, police, and military impunity as dependent variables. Statistical evidence shows that amnesty laws significantly correlate with higher levels of impunity in a country. A peace agreement, or democracy at the end of war, reduces the risk of impunity even with amnesty laws present.
大赦法是从战争过渡到和平的一种普遍做法。他们的目标往往是通过承诺免除战争罪的责任来转变暴力冲突。批评人士认为,大赦违反了国际法,在战后社会重现了有罪不罚现象,而大赦法的支持者则强调其促进和平的特点。先前的研究广泛地研究了第二个方面,发现大赦法可以为谈判和短期结束内战打开大门。然而,有罪不罚的问题还没有得到广泛的答复。运用历史制度主义框架,我们评估特赦法对社会有罪不罚的影响,定义为任何个人或群体免于惩罚或免于行动的伤害后果。来自萨尔瓦多的个案研究证据表明,大赦法再现了现有的权力关系,从而阻碍了深刻的改革。在大赦法的帮助下,将创造一个有利于相关各方的制度环境,即使不是几十年,也会持续数年。随后,我们使用新创建的数据集对这些定性发现进行了测试,该数据集涉及1990年至2016年全球40个不同战后国家的战后司法部门治理和改革,并将社会、警察和军事有罪不罚作为因变量。统计证据表明,在一个国家,大赦法与更高的有罪不罚水平显著相关。和平协议,或战争结束后的民主,即使有大赦法存在,也能降低有罪不罚的风险。
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引用次数: 0
Coups and the End of Mass-Killing Episodes 政变和大屠杀的结束
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogad008
Gary Uzonyi, Matthew S Wells
Why do mass-killing episodes end? Most attention is paid to international tools for ending atrocities. Instead, we consider how domestic politics alter the duration of killing by focusing on how divisions within the regime may lead to coups during the violence. Coups help shift regime preferences and undermine capacity to continue killings. We find support for this argument by statistically analyzing the relationship between coups and the end of each mass-killing episode from 1946 to 2013. We explore each mechanism quantitatively, and buttress these results with a series of examples illustrating the mechanisms at work.
为什么大屠杀会结束?人们最关注的是制止暴行的国际工具。相反,我们通过关注政权内部的分歧如何在暴力期间导致政变,来考虑国内政治如何改变杀戮的持续时间。政变有助于改变政权偏好,削弱继续杀戮的能力。我们通过统计分析1946年至2013年政变与每次大屠杀事件结束之间的关系,找到了支持这一论点的证据。我们定量地探索每一种机制,并用一系列的例子来说明这些机制在起作用。
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引用次数: 0
Republican Freedom and Committees of Safety: Notes on Historicization in Critical Security Studies 共和自由与安全委员会:批判安全研究中的历史化注释
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogad009
Thorsten Bonacker, H. Carl, A. Langenohl, A. Marciniak
This paper discusses the historical case of committees of safety and their role in three republican revolutions in early modern western political history in order to conceptually contribute to the historicization of critical security studies. These committees were significant in amalgamating republican understandings of public freedom with demands for security from tyrannical oppression, thus highlighting the constitutive role of security considerations in the formation of republican polities and republican political constituencies. Yet, they also pointed to the seemingly self-defeating effects of those committees’ practices in situations perceived as revolutionary, which regularly involved clandestine, self-legitimating, and oppressive force against “enemies of the revolution” and potential internal opposition alike, and hence undermined normative notions of republican freedom. The paper introduces an analytical triad, consisting of definition of security situation, interpretative frame, and security repertoire, which allows analyzing historical situations of securitization in full complexity while at the same time allowing inter-comparability and the modeling of dynamic invocations of security by interdependent actors. Applied to the historical narrative, two interrelated conceptual consequences for a historicization of critical security studies are derived. First, prominent strands in critical security studies will profit from studying securitization as a politically constitutive, as opposed to a merely transformative, act, precisely as securitization crystallizes in historically specific, politically constitutive organizational forms, such as committees of safety. Second, the paper complicates accounts concerning the security/freedom nexus inherited from conceptual history, analyzing the entanglement of republicanism with security reasoning from the perspective of historically situated practices.
本文讨论了安全委员会的历史案例及其在早期现代西方政治史上三次共和革命中的作用,以便在概念上为批判性安全研究的历史化做出贡献。这些委员会在将共和党对公共自由的理解与对暴政压迫的安全要求结合起来方面发挥了重要作用,从而突出了安全考虑在共和政体和共和政治选区形成中的构成作用。然而,他们也指出,在被认为是革命的情况下,这些委员会的做法似乎适得其反,通常涉及秘密的、自我合法化的、压迫性的力量来对付“革命的敌人”和潜在的内部反对派,因此破坏了共和自由的规范观念。本文介绍了一个由安全形势定义、解释框架和安全库组成的分析三元组,该三元组允许在完全复杂的情况下分析证券化的历史形势,同时允许相互比较和相互依赖的参与者动态调用安全的建模。应用于历史叙事,两个相互关联的概念后果的关键安全研究的历史化推导。首先,关键安全研究中的重要分支将受益于将证券化作为一种政治构成,而不仅仅是一种变革性的行为来研究,正如证券化在历史上特定的、政治构成的组织形式(如安全委员会)中具体化一样。其次,本文将从概念历史中继承的安全/自由关系复杂化,从历史情境实践的角度分析共和主义与安全推理的纠缠。
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引用次数: 0
When Do States Repatriate Refugees? Evidence from the Middle East 国家何时遣返难民?来自中东的证据
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogac031
Zeynep Şahin-Mencütek, G. Tsourapas
Which conditions affect whether a state will choose to repatriate forcibly displaced populations residing within its borders? One of the most pressing issues related to the protracted Syrian refugee situation concerns the future of over 5 million Syrians who sought shelter in neighboring states. With host countries pursuing disparate strategies on Syrians’ return, the existing literature has yet to provide a framework that is able to account for variation on host states’ policies toward refugee repatriation. In this paper, we expand upon the concept of the refugee rentier state to theorize inductively upon the conditions shaping states’ policymaking on repatriation. We draw upon multi-sited fieldwork across the three major refugee host states in the Eastern Mediterranean (Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey) to establish that a refugee rentier state's strategy is driven by domestic political economy costs related to the hosting of refugee populations as well as its geostrategic interests vis-à-vis these refugees’ country of origin. Using a comparative case study approach, we note how a state is more likely to pursue a blackmailing strategy based on threats if it faces high domestic political economy costs and adopts an interventionist policy vis-à-vis the sending state, as in the case of Turkey. Otherwise, it is more likely to pursue a backscratching strategy based on bargains, as in the case of Lebanon and Jordan. We conclude with a discussion on how this framework sheds light on refugee host states’ repatriation policies on a global scale.
哪些条件会影响一个国家是否会选择遣返境内被迫流离失所的人口?与旷日持久的叙利亚难民局势有关的最紧迫问题之一涉及在邻国寻求庇护的500多万叙利亚人的未来。由于东道国对叙利亚人的返回采取不同的战略,现有文献尚未提供一个能够解释东道国对难民遣返政策变化的框架。在本文中,我们扩展了难民食利国的概念,归纳归纳了影响国家遣返政策制定的条件。我们在地中海东部的三个主要难民收容国(约旦、黎巴嫩和土耳其)进行了多地点的实地调查,以确定一个难民食利国的战略是由与收容难民人口相关的国内政治经济成本以及与-à-vis这些难民原籍国的地缘战略利益驱动的。使用比较案例研究方法,我们注意到,如果一个国家面临较高的国内政治经济成本,并对派遣国-à-vis采取干预主义政策,就像土耳其的情况一样,它更有可能采取基于威胁的勒索策略。否则,它更有可能在讨价还价的基础上采取卑鄙的策略,就像黎巴嫩和约旦的情况一样。最后,我们讨论了该框架如何在全球范围内阐明难民收容国的遣返政策。
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引用次数: 2
Correction to: System Structure, Unjust War, and State Excusability 修正:制度结构、非正义战争和国家的可原谅性
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogad004
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Global Security Studies
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